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San Diego State vs. WashingtonFOR THE FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Washington -14.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Washington Huskies are primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Steve Sarkisian enters his fourth year on the job, and he finally has his recruits in place. Washington had one of the best recruiting classes in the land this offseason. With 13 starters back, the Huskies will be the surprise team in the Pac-12 this year. Junior QB Keith Price returns to lead the offense after completing 66.9 percent of his passes for 3,063 yards with 33 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2011. The defense figures to be one of the most improved units in the FBS with seven starters and five of its top six tacklers returning. San Diego State is entering rebuilding mode under second-year head coach Rocky Long. The Aztecs bring back just 12 starters, and they lose many of their best players from last season. Leading rusher Ronnie Hillman (1,711 yards, 19 TD) and the school's all-time leading QB Ryan Lindley (12,690 career passing yards) have departed. Defensively, the Aztecs part ways with three of their top four tacklers in Miles Burris (78 tackles, 19.5 for loss), Jerome Long (73 tackles, 8 for loss) and Larry Parker (65 tackles, 7 INT). The Aztecs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. Pac-12. The Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Washington and lay the points.
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Tulsa vs Iowa StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Iowa StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tulsa is far from a pushover, but they're really going to miss QB Kinne. Iowa State never looks like much on paper, but they're very well coached and I like the Cyclones to pull out a close game at home.
Pointwise
1 CAL over Nevada
1 Western Michigan over Illnois
4 BG over FL
4 Oak over UTEP
5 Rutgers over Tulane
Nelly's Power Plays
5 CAL
4 SDST
1 Tol over Zona
1 WV over Marsh
RedSheet
Wash 52-27 89
Cal 48-24 89
Bama 33-13 88
Sou. Cal 66-13 88
West Mich 27-26 88
CKO
11* OSU 45-9
10* PSU 28-13
10* North Illy 23-24 (+)
10* Duke 31-17
Gold Sheet
IOWA STATE by 12 over Tulsa
TROY by 16 over UAB
PowerSweep
5* Michigan State 34 Bise St. 17
4* UCF 43 Akron 3
3* California 38 Nevada 17
2* Western Michigan (+) 30 Illinois 17
2* Boston College 27 Miami 17
2* Ohio State 38 Miami Ohio 6
Underdog Kentucky (+) 21 Louisville 20
Matt RiversFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Free play run stands at 8-2 the last 10 days.
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For Saturday afternoon, go ahead and lay the big wood with the Bulldogs of Georgia, suspensions and all.
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The bottom line is the sticky Georgia weather will aid in the undoing of the Bulls in this one before it is all said and done.
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Georgia has been a good bully at home when favored, as the Dawgs have amassed an 8-3 spread mark their last eleven laying points in Athens, and they are 7-2 their last nine when laying double-digits at Sanford Stadium.
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As for Buffalo, Jeff Quinn's team is 3-9 against the spread on the road since the 2010 season, and 1-6 in that span when listed as the double-digit road dog.
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Only a matter of time before the humidity and the fact the Bulldogs are the superior unit takes its toll on the visitors.
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Lay the lumber as UGa rolls!
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3♦ GEORGIA
Jeff BentonFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Your Saturday freebie is the Under in the Phillies-Braves game this afternoon with Cliff Lee and Tim Hudson locking horns.
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Last night's contest played way Over with Halladay and Minor not being able to control the action. Still, the Phillies have Low in two of their last three, and five of their last seven games. Atlanta has also been on a Low run, as they have split their last four over/under-wise, and have also split their last ten over/under-wise.
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Last night's Over was pretty rare in this series, as the series numbers show a dominant 11-4-2 Under run he last 17 times these division rivals have faced one another.
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Cliff Lee may be just 3-7 for the year, but he has only allowed six earned runs his last 21-plus innings for a 2.53 ERA.
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Tim Hudson has allowed two earned runs or less in five of his last eight starts, and sports and ERA of 2.33 for his last three assignments.
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Runs at a premium in the Phillies-Braves series.
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Take the Low.
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4♦ PHILADELPHIA-ATLANTA UNDER
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Now, let's get to that free winner, as I examine why the Southeastern Conference's Georgia Bulldogs are going to annihilate the visiting Buffalo Bulls, out of the Mid-American Conference. Yes, this is a steep price that happens to be more than five touchdowns, but would you be surprised if I told you I think the Dawgs should be covering this by halftime.
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It's a shame a talented offense like the Bulls have to open with the sixth-ranked Bulldogs. I know it'll benefit Buffalo down the road, thanks to it playing some stiff competition (Connecticut and Pittsburgh are also on the schedule), but even those seven starters back won't be able to do much between the Hedges.
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The 2011 version of the Bulls struggled to a 3-9 ledger, and carrying the burden of improving this offense is junior quarterback Alex Zordich, who was named the starter after a hefty quarterback battle. He'll be joined by junior tailback Brandon Oliver, who rushed for 1,395 yards and 13 touchdowns last year. Problem for them is they'll be taking on a team that boasted the No. 5 defense in the nation, allowing about 275 yards per game.
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This season the stalwart Bulldogs defense has nine starters returning, led by lineback Jarvis Jones, who was named a first-team All-American and led the SEC with 13.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss. I think he and the rest of his experienced linebacking crew will be all over Zordich. Don't be surprised if we end up seeing redshirt freshman Joe Licata.
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I'm not too concerned about the Bulldogs' suspensions that have left their stop unit a bit "bare," if that's what you want to call it. In fact, this is a good spot for them to get some game-time experience with one another, just seven days before taking Missouri. Some would be inclined to think the Dawgs would letdown, possibly looking ahead. I'm thinking the other way, in that it allows Georgia to kick its season off on the right foot, while discovering what needs to be fixed before playing the Tigers in their first-ever league game as members of the SEC.
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Buffalo is mired in several ATS losing skids, including its dismal 1-7 mark versus non-conference teams, 0-4 while ordering room service and 7-16 overall.
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It may seem like a lot, but trust me guys, Georgia is a good play today.
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4♦ GEORGIA
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My free pick for Saturday is on the home underdog Blue Jays against a Rays team looking to duplicate its miraculous feat from last season, when it culminated one of the greatest comeback in baseball history, clinching a berth into the postseason on the final day of the campaign.
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Unfortunately, I don't think it'll start September off in winning fashion, as they're headed into a buzzsaw with this always, eerily dangerous Blue Jays team has won the first two game of this series and is on a three-game win streak. Toronto's pitching has limited the Rays to just one run after the first two games.
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The Jays hand the ball to Henderson Alvarez, who could certainly use a dose of the momentum his team has. The right-hander has lost four of his last five trips to the hill, while picking up a no-decision in the other.
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He's in after allowing four runs over 3-1/3 innings on five hits - including two home runs - a walk with a strikeout in his most recent start. Alvarez was forced out of that game in the fourth inning after taking a line drive off his leg; he was diagnosed with a shin bruise. The Jays, however, finished with an extra-innings win that day, after rallying in the ninth.
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Tampa checks in on losing streaks of 0-5 as the installed chalk, 1-4 on the road and 1-6 overall. On the other hand, and in addition to their three-game spree, the Jays have won four five as an underdog.
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2♦ TORONTO
Joseph D'AmicoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rutgers vs. TulaneFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Rutgers -20FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Scarlet Knights are seeking their third 9-win season in the L4 years while the Green Wave lost their final 10 games to end LY on a sorrowful note. The Knights are a solid team. Their "D" allowed just 18.0 PPG LY, and are led by LB, Khaseem Greene, who has 251 career tackles. This ferocious stop unit forced 35 TO's in 13 games…that comes to about 2.7 turnovers per game. On "O", Gary Nova is at QB. He shared the job LY with Chas Dodd. I truly believe that this helped develop his game. The running game is all about Jawan Jamison who added 897 YR last season and they possess an emerging star in Brandon Coleman, who averaged an astounding 32.5 YP Catch. Tulane yielded about 37.5 PPG, giving up 30 plus points 11 times. At QB for the Wave is RYAN GRIFFIN, who has solid numbers but can be quite erratic. Premier RB, Orleans Darkwa is dealing with an ankle issue and may be limited here. That will destroy the offense. Darkwa had 924 YR and 13 TDs LY. He IS the Tulane offense. Without him, all hope is lost. Rutgers faces stronger competition on a regular basis and has too many weapons here. The Green Wave are 13-28 ATS their L41 overall and 1-4 ATS their L5 games played in September. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS their L5 overall and 4-1 ATS their L5 non-conference games.
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Colorado St +6 over ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rams have won just six games in the last three years, but are back heading in the right direction after hiring Jim McElwain as the new head coach. McElwain spent the last four years as Alabama offensive coordinator where he coached a Heisman Trophy winner and won two national championships. His new team has taken a liking to his pro-style offense and while we're not expecting a winning season from CSU, there's no way Colorado should be laying nearly a TD in this one. The Buffaloes are one of the youngest teams in the nation, with just eight seniors on the roster and only nine returning starters. Colorado is breaking in Kansas-transfer Jordan Webb at QB and while the 24-year-old can be electrifying at times, he is prone to making the big mistake and that hurt him in his Jayhawk career, where he was 4-15 as a starter. Let's grab the generous points and look for CSU to hang tough and be in position to pull off the upset late in the game.
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Michigan / Alabama Under 47.5
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I might wait this out and see if you can't get (or buy) to the key number of 48, but one telling thing is that it hasn't hit that number (most places) yet. I suspect Michigan's defense is tired of hearing about Alabama's defense, and will make some plays here. And no, I do not expect Michigan to score that many, as most don't. This may be one of, IMO, the few games that plays out fairly close to the media's script, and with a gun to my head I'd take +14 points, but the guns' not loaded.
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Atlanta Braves -120
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At 4:05 PM EST today the Atlanta Braves (74-57 & 36-29 home) host the Philadelphia Phillies (62-69 & 30-32) in a NL East confrontation. Phillies send out Cliff Lee (3-7, 3.67 ERA & 1.16 WHIP) to face the Braves' Tim Hudson (13-4, 3.57 ERA & 1.20 WHIP). Lee hasn't pitched poorly all year, but the Phillies aren't the scoring machine they have been the previous three seasons. I guess you could say he has had some bad luck in the loss column. Hudson on the other hand is 3-0 in his last "5" starts, and has profited from the run support the Braves have provided him. In his last "10" starts he is 7-0, 3.19 ERA & a 30:17 K to BB ratio. Plus he is 2-0 vs. the Phillies this year.
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON -111 over St. Louis
Kyle Lohse has been solid this year with a 14-2 record and a 2.64 ERA. It’s for that reason that the Nationals are underpriced here. Don’t expect Lohse to maintain those numbers through the final month because he’s not as good as those numbers suggest. Lohse has a career record of 116-108 with a 4.46 ERA. Take away this year and he’d be under .500 with an ERA closer to 5.00. At the age of 33, he’s not some emerging young pitcher. His groundball rate and walks allowed have improved a little but his strikeout rate is still low. This season, the only difference is that he's had the good fortune of balls being hit right at people.
The Nationals have won five straight over St. Louis and their lowest scoring output over those games was seven. They’ve scored 43 runs in those five wins and have outscored St. Louis 18-1 in the first two games of this series. The Nats have also won four straight overall while the Cardinals have dropped four straight including the final two games to Pittsburgh in its last series.
There are many reasons why the Nationals pitching staff leads the NL in ERA, WHIP and batting average against and Jordan Zimmermann is among them. With a 2.63 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, Zimmerman continues to build on last year's breakout season. In 161 innings, he’s walked 32 while striking out 119. His skills validate the superb numbers he's posted so far. Over his last 45 starts dating back to last season, he has more quality starts (42) than any pitcher in baseball. That’s more than enough reason to lay a small price on the Nationals at home against a team they’ve owned and are clearly superior to.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ohio +214 over PENN STATE
12:00 PM EST. All eyes will be on the Nittany Lions today, not because they're expected to do anything but because this storied program has had an off-season of humiliation, disgrace, imposed sanctions and a complete overhaul of the system. This is a new era and emotions will be extremely high. These recruits are going to be told over and over how they are the face of a new beginning. They are going to be responsible for setting the tone to bringing back respect to this program. All of it means nothing to the Ohio Bobcats.
Ohio is favored to win the MAC after a season that saw them go 10-4, which included a Bowl win over Utah State. They featured an explosive offense that set school records for points and yards per game. They bring back every player this year. Returning QB Tyler Tettleton was nothing short of brilliant with 3306 passing yards and 28 TD’s.
Penn State’s overhaul was not restricted to the coaching staff. Many of its best players fled (they like to call it 'transferred') or graduated, leaving nine of 11 starters on offense gone. QB Matt McGloin stayed because he was not about to start anywhere else that gets the exposure that Penn State does. He starts by default after an ugly 2011 where he split time. The Lions had trouble putting up points last season and one has to wonder how they’ll score this season. The defensive backfield has nobody returning, which should allow Tettleton to rip the secondary apart. Yes, emotions will be high but you still need talent to compete and in that respect, Ohio brings much more to the table. We’re calling the upset and playing Ohio on the money line.
IOWA STATE +106 over Tulsa
3:30 PM EST. Tulsa made some noise last year when they won seven straight after opening the year against Big-12 powers, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State. They went to the C-USA conference championship and subsequently lost to BYU in the Armed Forces Bowl. They had a great year and as a result of that combined with a bunch of skilled returning players, they’re overpriced here. The Golden Hurricanes also lost some players with the most impactful being outstanding three-year QB G.J. Kinne. He’ll be replaced by Nebraska transfer Cody Green. Green threw five touchdowns to three interceptions as a backup in Lincoln. With Green, the offense will not be nearly as good and remains a big question mark.
Some doubts also surround the Cyclones. Their offense is a work in progress but they return seven starters not including quarterbacks Steele Jantz and Jared Barnett, who split time a season ago. Both were average at best. Defensively, the Cyclones averaged 22.7 points per game against but let’s not ignore that they reside in the powerful Big-12 and as a result, that number is not as alarming as it may appear.
Tulsa is the smallest school in the FBS and while they're coming off a great year, they still do not warrant being a road favorite to decent Big 12 programs like the well-coached and progressively improving Cyclones.
Alabama -13½ -107 over Michigan
8:00 PM EST. Neutral site game in Dallas is the featured game of the day in prime time on ESPN. The Crimson Tide is all too familiar with that while these players on Michigan are not. Remember, the Wolverines were completely off the map for a couple of years before last season’s resurgence. The Wolverines #8 ranking has people believing that they’re on the verge of returning to national prominence and right off the bat they get a prime timer.
We’re not so sure. The Wolverines are improving but they’re not in the same class as the Crimson Tide. In Michigan’s win over Va. Tech in the Sugar Bowl, Mich won but gained a mere 184 yards. They're 'improvement' year saw much of that and now they’ll face a very strong club, one that doesn’t turn the ball over and rarely takes a penalty. The Wolverines caught lighting in a bottle a year ago but they’re just not that good. They’re very short on talent, experience and depth and will be exposed as such here.
Alabama is not only a tremendous defensive outfit, this year’s offense is the best they’ve featured in some time. The offensive line is considered to be the best in the nation. Top to bottom, this edition of the Tide is so much more talented than the Wolverines but Michigan’s pedigree (college football’s all time winningest program) and the hype surrounding them has them overvalued here. The Wolverines are not ready to threaten a top SEC power and perhaps the best team in the land.
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Cincinnati Reds -163
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The Astros have lost 6 in a row and 49 of their last 57. The Reds, meanwhile, have won 4 straight and 37 of their last 52. They are also 38-16 in their last 54 versus the Astros, including 6-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston. The Reds are 10-1 in Bailey's last 11 road starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus the Astros. Bet the Reds.
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Miami Marlins -139
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Josh Johnson's dominance of the Mets can't be ignored. He is 8-2 (11-5 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.70 in 16 career starts against them. The Marlins are a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus the Mets and 37-16 in his last 53 home starts overall. The Mets won yesterday but are just 5-14 in their last 19 games following a win. Take Miami.
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Oklahoma -30 over UTEP: The Oklahoma Sooners are primed and ready to make a run at the National Title as this team is loaded. Landry Jones is back is one of the favorites to win the Heisman trophy. Jones threw for 4483 yrds last year, with 29 TD's and 15 INT's and he does have 2 of his top 3 WR's and top 3 RB's backs from last year to help him guide his offense that averaged 39.5 ppg last year. The Sooners have put up 41 points or more in 10 of their last 18 games and will take on a UTEP defense that allowed 40+ points in 4 of their last 9 games last year and this year they bring back just 5 starters from that group. The Miners are very weak at LB and their secondary isn't that strong and they should struggle vs this Oklahoma passing game that averaged 349 ypg last year. The Sooners will really look to work on their passing game with their young WR's and they only have Florida A&M on deck, so they should be fully focused for this one. The Miners offense was pretty good last year, but will be taking on top 5 defense in this game and I expect them to struggle in this one. The Sooners are deep at every position and will look to make a statement to the rest of the Nation by an outright pasting of a Miners team that is just middle of the pack in Conference USA.
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3 UNIT PLAYS
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POWER ANGLE PLAY
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Rutgers -20 over TULANE: The Knights lost Greg Schiano and most of his staff to the NFL, but he did a great job of recruiting and they have 15 starters back from last years team that went 9-4, while losing just 14 lettermen overall. This is still a deep and talented team that is one of the favorites in the Big East this year. The Knights come in loaded at the skill positions and their OL is one of the best in the Big East, so I look for their offense to flourish this year. Defensively the Knights have a huge in this game as they have the Best defense in the Big East and will probably finish in the top 15, nationally, in most defensive categories by years end. Tulane is not good on defense. They may be better than last year with 7 starters back, but they allowed 37.5 ppg and 410 ypg, so they have a tone of ground to make up. The Tulane offense does not have a lot of talent and will certainly struggle vs the Knights tough defense in this one. Both teams have new HC's but Kyle Flood was on the Rutgers staff last year so they will not be going through scheme changes, like Tulane will. Rugters also has revenge on their minds after losing at home to Tulane as 17 point favorites back in 2010 and I feel they will get it with a big 24+ point win. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against any team in their season opener if they have a new HC and they won 4 games or less last year and are taking on a team that won 6+ games the year before. This Play is 40-19-3 since 1990.
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TEXAS -31.5 over Wyoming: The Longhorns have outscored the Cowboys by 25 ppg in their previous 4 meetings and I feel that Texas can squeeze another TD' out and win by at least 32 in this one. The Longhorns are loaded this year with a dense that may be one of the best in the nation, while an offense that put up 29.1 ppg last year will be even more explosive as they have 9 starters back from that group. David Ash will be their full time QB this year and he has his top 4 pass catchers back from last year and will take aim at a Wyoming defense that allowed 27.8 ppg and 432 ypg last year. Wyoming surprised many last year and it was mainly due to an offense that improved by a TD over 2010. This year with just 5 starters back a weak OL and losing 2 of their top 4 WR's, I just don't see them putting up the 26 ppg they did last year. And especially in this game vs this defense. I just don't see the Cowboys hitting DD in this one, especially since they have averaged just 7 ppg vs Texas in the previous 4 meetings, and this Longhorn defense is better than those editions. Look for a 42-7 win by Texas in this one.
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Western Michigan +10 over Illinois: The Broncos have had the Illini's number, going 3-0 ATS all-time and in 2008 they pulled the outright upset and last year they nearly upset Illinois again, losing 23-20 as 14 point dogs. Tim Beckman is the new headman in Illinois and he is 2-1 SU vs Cubit and the Broncos, but 1-2 ATS. Last year he and his Toledo Rockets played a memorable game with a 66-63 Toledo win as 12 point favorites. Tim Beckman should have a good first year for Illinois with 15 starters back, but they are installing new systems on both sides of the ball, but it won't happen right away. They will need a couple of games to gel, but Western Michigan has no new changes and that should give them a solid edge in game 1. The Broncos return 15 starters, including 80% of their OL and Alex Carder (3871 yds, 31 TD's and 14 INT's last year). He did lose his top 3 WR's from last year, but they were deep at that position and have some guys ready to step in. Both teams are set to have solid seasons, but I believe the coaching change will hinder Illinois in game 1 vs a Western Michigan team that may just be the best team in the MAC.
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Clemson/ Auburn Under 55.5: Google News Play Last year Clemson allowed 10 TD's in their bowl game and for the year they had allowed 29.3 ppg, so they went out and got a new DC in Brent Venables and along with 7 starters I look for this unit to improve greatly. They will also be chomping at the bit to get out there and make amends for last years defensive bowl debacle. For Auburn they struggled last year on defense as they allowed 28.9 ppg, but they had only 3 starters back from 2010 and this year they have 9 back. New DC Brian VanGorder should have them back playing solid defense in no time. The Biggest improvements both teams have made have been on defense this year and I expect a good hard fought low scoring game in this one.