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Texas State at Houston (-35½)
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This is a big number to lay for a Houston team who lost their head coach, their offensive staff and one of the all-time best signal callers in Case Keenum. Tony Levin, last year’s Asst. HC steps into the void while fielding and entirely new staff. With Texas State back in the betting rotation, it marks the return of highly travelled, but respected HC Franchioni (most recently TCU, Alabama, and Texas A & M). With 16 returning starters, these Bobcats may have some bite. Lean: Texas St
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Clemson (-3½) vs. Auburn
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Slight preference to the SEC underdog in this matchup who looks to cycle upward following a 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS season. Remember this is a team just 2 years removed from a National championship season. With 15 returning starters, they’re far better prepared to face this season than they were in 2011 when they had just 6 returning starters and a target on their chest. One of those losses came by a score of 38-24 at Clemson a game which Auburn controlled early on. But that was the story of the Clemson season that saw them soar to top 10 status following an 8-0 SU start. Then their porous 29 PPG defense let them down in a 2-4 SU 1-5 ATS finish in which they failed by 85 points to the line. Yet they are still rated more highly then they were at the start of last season while Auburn, which has a far greater upside is accorded equal rating. Loss of Clemson WR Watkins a bit overrated, as they still feature QB Boyd, RB Ellington, a deep receiving corps, and the clever tutelage of second year OC Chad Morris. Lean: Auburn
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Hawaii at USC (-40)
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After a distinguished career as OC at numerous stops, Norm Chow returns to his Hawaii roots to close out his career with his first job as collegiate HC. Though USC was one of his stops, there is no love lost between Chow and USC mentor Lane Kiffin. With the programs headed opposite directions, this could get ugly. Hawaii has just 10 returning starters, has among the least experienced teams in the country and is changing offensive schemes to more of a pro-style offense. USC is loaded with 16 Returning starters led by Heisman hopeful QB Barkley for a team that is coming off a 2 year probation and will now challenge for the National title. Kiffin names the score. Lean: USC
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Michigan vs. Alabama (-14)
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These are 2 of the most highly successful college coaches in the country. Michigan HC Hoke transformed a Ball State team from mediocrity to an undefeated regular season. He then guided San Diego State to their first winning season in over 10 years. Last season he led Michigan from the nadir of their discontent (a 3 year record of 15-22in the Rich Rod years) to a mark of 11-2 SU, 7-4 ATS. This year the Wolves will contend for a Big Ten Championship with 13 returning starters led by QB D. Rob. But the athletic signal caller has not faced anything like the Alabama defense. Though just 5 starters return to that side of the ball, and they will not match their gaudy numbers from last year of 8/184, this is still one of the best stop units in the nation with plenty of speed and depth. With QB McCarron having the confidence of a National title, the Tide is set to roll again. Credit HC Saban who parlays his coaching acumen into a +49 net TO margin the last 5 years, due to his fanatical attention to detail. The result is a 35-18 ATS mark L4Y. Don’t think we are fading that. But the psychological disadvantage of the players knowing they are the defending champions is something that will try the mental acuity of Saban the entire season. Lean: Alab
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Rutgers (-20½) at Tulane
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Just imagine how little regard the Linemaker has for Tulane to install them as a 3 TD home dog on opening day, yet it may be warranted based on the situation. This is a 2-11 team from last season who made a coaching change to CJ Johnson, the former Saints wide receiver coach. Johnson will try to improve on the 21 PPG offense while stopping the bleeding of a defense that has allowed 33 PPG L 3Y. But Rutgers is undergoing their own coaching change with former HC Schiano headed to the NFL and replaced by Kyle Flood an Asst. Coach here since 2007. He will inherit one of Rutgers best stop units in recent memory and an experienced signal caller in QB Nova who is capable of extending a margin on a field where Tulane is 11-29 ATS since 2005. Lean: Rutgers
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Oklahoma (-31) at UTEP
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This line a bit bloated for the obvious class difference and public opinion surrounding these two. But road favorites of this magnitude are often highly profitable in week 1. QB Jones returns with a better balanced offense thanks to return of RB Whaley an addition of RB Williams. UTEP has its own experience in QB Lamaison, an experienced line, and quality receivers. That may not be enough against an improved Oklahoma defense and a team who is very hungry after losing 2 of their last 3 regular season games in 2011. Lean: Okl
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Toledo at Arizona (-10)
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It could be Death in the Desert for this nice little MAC team. With the 2 headed QB in the persons of Owens and Danlin, they led the Rockets to 42 PPG LY. OC Campbell inherits the team after former HC Beckman moved on to Illinois. But the cupboard is a bit bare for the Rockets with just 4 returning starters on each side of the ball. They will certainly have a hard time making the adjustment to the desert heat in a game that will be played 10:30 PM their body time. The Rich Rod era is underway at Arizona following his debacle at Michigan, where he went 15-22 SU for a program that seldom had a losing year before and went 11-2 in 2011 (yes, Rich Rod, you would be the common thread). It would not be unusual to see his team have a tough time making the transition to his unique offense just as his former teams did at Michigan and WVU. We must remember that a major reason for the Michigan demise was a defense that allowed over 30 PPG in his 3 years, but have not allowed more than 21 PPG in their recent history of winning seasons. Not interested in trusting either coach or defense in this lid lifter. Lean: Toledo
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San Diego State at Washington (15½)
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Much like California did last year; Washington has moved their home games to Century Link Field, home of the Seahawks, while Husky Stadium is getting a facelift. Washington looks to build on the return of QB Price to an offense that averaged 33 PPG LY. It’s the defense that needs the fix after they allowed 36 PPG in 2011. HC Sarkisian cleaned house bringing in an entirely new defensive staff led by DC Wilcox (Tennessee and Boise State). Until 7 returning starters prove their mettle, it’s hard to lay this many points. HC Rocky Long the 2nd year mentor of San Diego State, is a defensive guru who rarely fields a bad stop unit. Major ? is how well Oregon State transfer QB Katz acclimates to the new schemes. A good game to watch. Lean: Wash
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Florida Intl. at Duke (-3½)
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These teams played remarkably true to form last year with Florida Intl. going 6-7 ATS and +5 AFP. Duke was 6-5 ATS -10 AFP. A 31-27 Duke final further confirms the consistency. With each team returning 17 starters, it would be no surprise to see this game end close to the opening number. Each of these coaches has been a bit under the radar with FIU mentor Cristobal recording a 7-3 ATS dog log L2Y while Duke headman Cutcliffe is a solid 13-9-2 ATS L2 Y. If you’re looking for an edge, consider that Duke QB Renfree passed the Panthers silly LY with 335 air yards while FIU must replace graduated QB Carroll and explosive WR Hilton. While FIU has more focus on winning the Sun Belt, Duke needs every non-con win it can get in a quest for a winning season. Lean: Duke
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North Texas at LSU (-42½)
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North Texas may be the perfect foil on whom LSU can vent following the 21-0 National Championship game loss. Anticipated excellence of new QB Mettenberger just what the Bengals needed to help balance and explode an offense that passed for just 153 yds. last year and averaged just 36 PPG, courtesy of a +20 net TO margin, fueled mostly by a ferocious defense. This unit, despite the dismissal of do-everything, Matthieu, could be every bit as good. Still a higher profile game with Washington is on deck and knowing that Miles is 12-21 ATS home L5Y gives pause for concern in a matchup with his clever opposite number, HC McCarthy. Lean:N Texas
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Arkansas State at Oregon (-35)
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It was a fairytale season for Ark State LY as they toiled under now departed HC Freeze. In his single year at Jonesboro he led the Red Wolves to a 10-3 SU ATS mark. They’ll have a tough time matching those numbers with just 10 returning starters, a new mentor in HC Malzahn and a pair of new coordinators including highly respected DC Thompson who has 25 years’ experience. The brilliant offensive mind of Malzahn inherits an experienced signal caller in QB Aplin who will be happy to toss the ball around the lot; and playing a game with at least 90 plays. Regrettably, in this matchup, that plays right in to the hands of the uptempo Ducks who are most comfortable at that pace. Ignore the 11 returning starter figure as that is a like number they fielded when outscoring the opposition 46-24 in a 12-2, 8-5 ATS season. New name to watch is anointed starter QB Mariota. He toiled on the practice squad last year with many of the graduating Ducks singing the phrases that he would be the most electric signal caller that Oregon has ever seen. Along with plenty of skilled position fire power, the offensive philosophies of HC Kelly, tune in tonight to see whether Oregon can maintain its lead or whether Ark State comes flying through the backdoor with Malzahn and Aplin Lean: Oregon
Scott Delaney
Forget Alabama-Michigan, I am. I'd much rather play the game that has value, rather than headlines. And this is THE GAME to unload on in Week One and that's why it's my 80 Dime College Winner #8 of 10 to kickoff the season.
Now, let's get to that free winner, as I examine why the Southeastern Conference's Georgia Bulldogs are going to annihilate the visiting Buffalo Bulls, out of the Mid-American Conference. Yes, this is a steep price that happens to be more than five touchdowns, but would you be surprised if I told you I think the Dawgs should be covering this by halftime.
It's a shame a talented offense like the Bulls have to open with the sixth-ranked Bulldogs. I know it'll benefit Buffalo down the road, thanks to it playing some stiff competition (Connecticut and Pittsburgh are also on the schedule), but even those seven starters back won't be able to do much between the Hedges.
The 2011 version of the Bulls struggled to a 3-9 ledger, and carrying the burden of improving this offense is junior quarterback Alex Zordich, who was named the starter after a hefty quarterback battle. He'll be joined by junior tailback Brandon Oliver, who rushed for 1,395 yards and 13 touchdowns last year. Problem for them is they'll be taking on a team that boasted the No. 5 defense in the nation, allowing about 275 yards per game.
This season the stalwart Bulldogs defense has nine starters returning, led by lineback Jarvis Jones, who was named a first-team All-American and led the SEC with 13.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss. I think he and the rest of his experienced linebacking crew will be all over Zordich. Don't be surprised if we end up seeing redshirt freshman Joe Licata.
I'm not too concerned about the Bulldogs' suspensions that have left their stop unit a bit "bare," if that's what you want to call it. In fact, this is a good spot for them to get some game-time experience with one another, just seven days before taking Missouri. Some would be inclined to think the Dawgs would letdown, possibly looking ahead. I'm thinking the other way, in that it allows Georgia to kick its season off on the right foot, while discovering what needs to be fixed before playing the Tigers in their first-ever league game as members of the SEC.
Buffalo is mired in several ATS losing skids, including its dismal 1-7 mark versus non-conference teams, 0-4 while ordering room service and 7-16 overall.
It may seem like a lot, but trust me guys, Georgia is a good play today.
4♦ GEORGIA
My free pick for Saturday is on the home underdog Blue Jays against a Rays team looking to duplicate its miraculous feat from last season, when it culminated one of the greatest comeback in baseball history, clinching a berth into the postseason on the final day of the campaign.
Unfortunately, I don't think it'll start September off in winning fashion, as they're headed into a buzzsaw with this always, eerily dangerous Blue Jays team has won the first two game of this series and is on a three-game win streak. Toronto's pitching has limited the Rays to just one run after the first two games.
The Jays hand the ball to Henderson Alvarez, who could certainly use a dose of the momentum his team has. The right-hander has lost four of his last five trips to the hill, while picking up a no-decision in the other.
He's in after allowing four runs over 3-1/3 innings on five hits - including two home runs - a walk with a strikeout in his most recent start. Alvarez was forced out of that game in the fourth inning after taking a line drive off his leg; he was diagnosed with a shin bruise. The Jays, however, finished with an extra-innings win that day, after rallying in the ninth.
Tampa checks in on losing streaks of 0-5 as the installed chalk, 1-4 on the road and 1-6 overall. On the other hand, and in addition to their three-game spree, the Jays have won four five as an underdog.
2♦ TORONTO
Chuck O'Brien
On the heels of winning yet another free selection, last night on the Texas Rangers, my comp selection record is now at 102-64-2. For Saturday, I'm playing the Oregon Ducks -37, and though it looks like a big number, I'm telling you the they're going to manhandle the Arkansas State Red Wolves.
First and foremost, this is not the easiest trip to make for West coast teams, and now you got a team from Jonesboro, Arkansas traveling to the extreme Northwest for the series opener against an always dangerous team like the Ducks.
I know the Red Wolves went 10-3 last year, they're the defending Sun Belt Conference champs and enter this campaign after their best season in more than a quarter century. But, they have no clue what their coach and athletic director got them into with this season-opener.
Oregon, just two seasons removed from its run to BCS title game, is the favorite once again to win the Pac-12's North Division after producing a 12-2 mark (8-1 in conference) last season. Coach Chip Kelly has a high-powered offense once again, despite losing quarterback Darron Thomas and running back LaMichael James. Kelly, who is 34-6 in three seasons, has done an exceptional job at filling the vacancies with top-notch talent.
The Ducks play with such intensity, and always plays with a confidence you just can't coach. It has to come from the heart. The Red Wolves have never faced a team out of the Pac 12, and tonight they're going to get a heavy dose of the Ducks.
Also, this game is starting at 10:30 eastern time, so you can imagine how tired the Red Wolves might be come kickoff.
The Ducks have covered four straight against teams from the Sun Belt Conference and are on a 7-3 ATS run in the month of September. Take the Ducks here.
3♦ OREGON
Craig Davis
Free play run is 69-46.
College football free play is Southern Miss plus the points.
Don’t underestimate this team.
True, they may be replacing more than half their defense and nearly 1/3 of their offense, but they are filling those spots with a lot of young talent, and if Nebraska falls asleep, it could be a stressful afternoon.
Having said that, Nebraska should have too many weapons for Southern Miss and will win the game... but will they cover this large number? I say no.
USM boasts all-everything player Tracy Lampley, who has more than 3,000 career all-purpose yards, and have an experienced offensive line. Combine that with Nebraska's suspect run defense and you could have an upset in the makings. I dont believe it will happen, but stranger things have happened and I, for one, don't think USM is getting enough credit.
Still, Nebraska hasn’t lost a season opener since 1985 and it's not going to start today.
Unlike other places in the country who are getting new head coaches, today is business as usual in Lincoln.
Take the Eagles plus the big number as a free play of the day.
2♦ SOUTHERN MISS
Chris Jordan
On the heels of last night's free winner on the Washington Nationals, a 10-0 winner over the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals, I am going to put my helmet and pads on for the Atlantic Coast Conference showdown between the Miami, Florida Hurricanes and Boston College Eagles.
I see the 'Canes are laying 2-1/2 on the road, at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, but I'm inclined to take the points here, and expect the Eagles to challenge for the outright win.
I'll tell you why by 8 a.m. pacific
2♦ BOSTON COLLEGE
Matt Rivers
Free play run stands at 8-2 the last 10 days.
For Saturday afternoon, go ahead and lay the big wood with the Bulldogs of Georgia, suspensions and all.
The bottom line is the sticky Georgia weather will aid in the undoing of the Bulls in this one before it is all said and done.
Georgia has been a good bully at home when favored, as the Dawgs have amassed an 8-3 spread mark their last eleven laying points in Athens, and they are 7-2 their last nine when laying double-digits at Sanford Stadium.
As for Buffalo, Jeff Quinn's team is 3-9 against the spread on the road since the 2010 season, and 1-6 in that span when listed as the double-digit road dog.
Only a matter of time before the humidity and the fact the Bulldogs are the superior unit takes its toll on the visitors.
Lay the lumber as UGa rolls!
3♦ GEORGIA
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Miami Ohio / Ohio State Over 50.5
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This is hard to fathom but eight times last year Ohio State completed nine passes or less. It might be a bit different under Coach Urban Meyer, who you know will open up the playbook and at least introduce something you haven't seen in Columbus recently-the forward pass! QB Braxton Miller will engineer a spread attack and the Buckeyes are loaded with speed, which is the element traditionally the Big 10 is lacking, especially when matching up the SEC as we've all witnessed countless times. Meyer didn't pull any punches when he arrived on campus informing his staff and players what to expect. "I want a bunch of coaches that coach like their hair's on fire, and I want a football team that goes four to six seconds of relentless effort," he said. "You do that, you have a chance to win in every game you play." His Buckeyes will play uptempo, throw the ball a lot to a lot of different receivers, and should prevent fans from leaving their seats for a bathroom break for fear they'll miss a 70-yard pass play - or maybe a turnover. The first challenge for Meyer's defense will come in the form of RedHawks senior Zac Dysert, who's third among active quarterbacks with 8,530 passing yards behind Oklahoma's Landry Jones and USC's Matt Barkley. Dysert threw for 3,513 yards with 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions last year. Dysert, who seemingly has been around forever, finished last year with a flourish throwing for 364, 413, and 372 yards. Miami of Ohio doesn't run much anyway and won't be successful trying it at the Horseshoe. Dysert was also sacked 46 times last year so don't be surprised if the Buckeyes force some turnovers that results in quick points. But in the end we know Dysert will keep firing it, slowing the game up and stopping the clock. WR Nick Harwell is exceptionally good catching 97 passes last year for 1,425 yards. Miami of Ohio is 34-17 'OVER' when they allow 28 points or more and considering the Buckeyes are favored by 25 1/2, I doubt the RedHawks will limited them to below 30. Go 'OVER' 50 .5 points.
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Tampa Bay Rays -146
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The Rays will start Niemann today and he is coming back from injury today. He has in Toronto a good matchup, as only Lind has good numbers against him (13-29), as Encarnacion is 1-12 against him, Escobar 0-12, Rasmus 1-6, Torrealba 1-4, Johnson 3-11 and Vizquel 1-4! Therefore, I believe Niemann will comeback today at a decent level, something that should be enough to handle the current lineup of the Blue Jays.
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On the other hand, Alvarez is coming from an outing against the Yankees, where he had to leave the game after 3.1 innings due to injury. He has struggled in August with a 0-4 record and a 7.77 ERA. He is clearly regressing after a strong early season and he keeps being pounded on his recent outings. He allowed four runs and five hits to the Yankees in just 3.1 IP and always looked in trouble in every inning. He has already faced the Rays three times this season and he always struggled with 6, 4 and 6 runs allowed, with the Rays roster hitting .330 BA and .919 OPS in 94 AB's against him. Therefore, I expect Tampa Bay to put him in a lot of trouble today once again.
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With Alvarez in more than likely trouble today and with Niemann having a good matchup today, I believe that the Rays should have a comfortable win today and so, I'll take them in here.
DAVID BANKS
Arkansas / Oregon Over 68
The Oregon Ducks are ranked fifth in the country while the Arkansas State Red Wolves made a big hiring at head coach in former Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The teams meet Saturday at 10:30 ET at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR on ESPN. Oregon maintains its lofty rating despite losing running back LaMichael James and quarterback Darron Thomas while Arkansas State is looking to make bigger waves after winning the Sun Belt Conference last season and finishing at 10-3.
Oregon may have lost some great players on offense, but this team just keeps reloading and does not figure to miss a beat, and those that are already handing the Pac-12 Championship to USC this year may be sorely mistaken. James will be replaced by senior Kenjon Barner, who himself has rushed for over 1900 yards in three years at Oregon while averaging over 6.0 yards per carry every year, including rushing for 939 yards as James's understudy last year, which is more than many starters rush for. While the running back transition should be seamless, a true freshman quarterback in Marcus Mariota takes over for Thomas, who foolishly declared for the NFL Draft and went undrafted. Mariota excelled when he passed for 202 yards in the spring game and his mobility makes him a perfect fit for Coach Chip Kelly's offense. Oregon also has the deepest offensive line since Kelly has been the coach, so the Ducks can continue to play the up-tempo style they love knowing that they can give linemen some rests without the talent level dropping. The Oregon defense often gets overlooked because it allowed 391.1 total yards per game last year, but that is because it was on the field so long due to the quick-strike offense. In reality, the Ducks allowed only 5.1 yards per play, which ranked 36th in the nation and second in the Pac-12.
Malzahn has said that he wants to play fast at ASU, so this game could turn into a track meet fairly quickly. That new no-huddle system might work down the road too, especially when the Red Wolves begin Sun Belt play, as returning quarterback Ryan Aplin seems like the perfect player to implement it. The reining Sun Belt Conference Player of the year returns for his senior season after throwing for over 3500 yard and 19 touchdowns last season and rushing for 588 yards and 10 more scores. The bad news for Arkansas State is that they have suspended three players for the season, former Auburn running back Michael Dyer for marijuana possession and wide receivers Earl Lucas and Tres Houston for violating team rules. Thus, short-handed ASU has its work cut out for it here vs. a defense that is infinitely faster than the defenses it usually faces, but that could actually benefit the Red Wolves for the rest of the year, especially if the new offense can score some points here, as conference defenses will then seem statuesque by comparison.
This is the first ever meeting between these two schools, and it is in fact the first time that Arkansas State has ever faced a Pac-12 school. The Red Wolves did go 3-0 ATS in non-conference losses during the regular season last year, covering in road losses at Illinois and Virginia Tech and blowing out Memphis outright at home. This will also be the first time Oregon has faced a Sun Belt school, although the Ducks did lose to the Auburn Tigers in the 2011 BCS Championship Game when Malzahn was the offensive coordinator for Cam Newton & Co.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
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5* graded play on the Philadelphia Phillies as they take on the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of this three-game NL East divisional series set to start at 7:05 PM ET. Don?t even think it Phillies fans, but you do have every right to think the impossible could happen two consecutive seasons.
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I am alluding to the improbable winning run by the St. Louis Cardinals and the demise of the Atlanta Braves that allowed the Cardinals to gain the Wild Card berth and ultimately go on to win the World Series. It was this week that marked the anniversary of that run where the Cardinals were 9 ? games out of the wild card berth and had just 28 games left on the schedule. Purely consequently, the Phillies last week were 9 ? games out with 33 games this week. They won last night and the other contenders all lost giving even more hope to the purest of Phillies fans.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I do believe they win this series against the Braves marking the ninth series win in the last 13 since the break. They are playing like a team and are getting clutch hitting and some clutch plays on defense that has been the identity of this team since Charlie Manuel took over. He asks two things of his players. Show up on time and hussle. Rollins failed to do the latter and was benched. This type of leadership in MLB is very rare, but it works and it makes the team better.
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Eric Kratz, proved again last night that he belongs as the backup catcher for the 2103 Phillies team. He hit another home run run and also took a big shot at home plate, but held onto the ball to record the out. The Phillies may make things even more interesting as the end of the regular season approaches with their renewed vigor.
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Supporting System
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Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 55-43 for 56% winners and has made 39.2 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on road dogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30%, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last five games. Take the Phillies
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Southern Miss vs. NebraskaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play:Nebraska -19.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Southern Miss comes into this one with a defensive line that is made up of almost all new players, and Nebraska loves to run the ball. The last time Nebraska played an inexperienced 4-2-5 defense, Martinez ran up and down the field. The Huskers offensive line size is a huge mismatch – and the hard-to-bring down RB Rex Burkhead –will wear down this visiting d-line. This is not the type of defense to run against a team like Nebraska.
SPORTS WAGERS
Texas St. +36½ -105 over HOUSTON
Generally, we usually avoid games like this but this number is so inflated that we can't walk by. We’re all about value and this one has neon lights all over it.
Houston went 7-0 against the number a year ago when favored by more than three TD’s but this team is a fraction of the Case Keenum-led squad that finished 13-1. More than 50% of the offense is gone and so is head coach Kevin Sumlin. The Cougars still have plenty of offensive talent but there’s an adjustment period with a new coach and system and a big blowout in their first game is a bit of a stretch.
Texas State begins a new era, converting from an FCS team to a FBS team in the WAC division. This veteran club is well aware of the better opportunities that come with that and they’ll be ready. This number is more indicative of how these teams would have matched up last season, as is often the case in week one of college football. In lends an opportunity that would not have been available later in this season.