Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 10, 2011

Hollywood Sports

Notre Dame at Michigan
Prediction: Notre Dame

Look for a good Notre Dame team to bounce-back to defeat (and cover the spread against) Michigan in the Big House in the first-ever night game played in Ann Arbor. The Irish's five turnovers made the difference in their 23-20 upset loss to South Florida last Saturday. But keep in mind that they outgained the Bulls by a dominant 152 yards in that game and it is very unlikely that the Irish will be as loose with the football this week. Notre Dame returns sixteen starters from an improving 8-5 club that allowed only one non-garbage time TD in their last four games last year. Brian Kelly will need little to get this team motivated to play a Michigan team that RichRod managed to lead his team to victory against for two straight seasons. While the Wolverines' defense has improved now that tackling is being taught there again, there remains a talent-gap on defense that will take time to resolve. It was an injury to QB Dayne Crist last year that helped Michigan earn that win in South Bend. With both Crist as well as sophomore Tommy Rees both capable at QB, the Irish will outscore a Michigan team still adapting to new systems on both sides of the football.

Lenny Del Genio

Alabama at Penn State
Play: Penn State

These teams met in Game #2 last season with the Tide rolling 24-3 in Tuscaloosa as a 12-point favorite. PSU QB Bolden was making his first road start that day and it showed with the freshman completing only 13 of 29 passes and throwing two picks. Now its Alabama that's unsettled under center as their two QB?s combined to throw four picks last week vs. Kent State. Also of concern is the fact that Trent Richardson ran for just 37 yards on 13 carries. This is what happens when defenses can stack the line. Be aware that this is only the sixth time Bama has played a true non-conference road game since 2000. Play on Penn State.

Sean Murphy

Iowa @ Iowa St.
Pick: Iowa -6.5

Iowa State had some success in this series from 2004 through 2008, winning a pair of games outright, while covering the spread in all five meetings.

The tide has turned back in Iowa's favor over the last couple of years, however, and I don't expect it to shift back the Cyclones way here in 2011.

Yes, Iowa is dealing with plenty of turnover, as it returns only five starters on offense and four on defense. We saw some growing pains early in last week's game, at least on the offensive side of the ball, as the Hawkeyes scored only three first quarter points against FCS squad Tennessee Tech. However, they were able to take full control in the second half, and in the end, rolled to a 34-7 victory.

I liked the balance we saw from the Hawkeyes in that game, as they attempted 26 passes compared to 33 runs. That's about the ratio you would expect from a team working out some kinks, and in what was a blowout game. New starting QB James Vandenberg did a nice job, throwing for 219 yards and two touchdowns while running for another score.

Iowa State returns over half of its starting defense from a year ago, but lost the bulk of its offense. Unlike the Hawkeyes, the Cyclones had to fight tooth and nail to earn a 20-19 win over Northern Iowa last Saturday.

It wasn't exactly a stellar debut for QB Steele Jantz. He completed only 18-of-40 passes for 187 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. While he did run for 80 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries, that's not all that encouraging heading into this week's game, as those same running lanes are unlikely to open up against a well-coached, disciplined squad like Iowa.

Defensively, it's clear that the Cyclones still have some work to do. Northern Iowa by no means has a punchless offense, but the Panthers shouldn't have been able to rack up 385 total yards against a Big 12 defense.

The coaching edge almost always goes to the Hawkeyes, regardless of their opponent. Kirk Ferentz prepares his team as well as anyone else in college football, leading Iowa to a 64-44 ATS record.

Coming off a season in which his team went 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS on the road, Ferentz will certainly put a lot of emphasis on this game.

Iowa State hasn't fared well as an underdog in the current pointspread range, going 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games when priced between +3.5 and +10. Paul Rhoads still has a lot of work to do with this year's team, and I expect them to fall short against the rival Hawkeyes on Saturday.

Freddy Wills

Notre Dame vs. Michigan
Play: Notre Dame -2.5

Last week we broke down Notre Dame and South Florida and we gave you South Florida +11 with a chance to pull the out right upset and they did! This week we are giving you another free pick with Notre Dame in action in one of the most heated rivalries in the first night game in Michigan's history.

Is it not obvious? I mean Notre Dame just lost at home as a double digit favorite now they go on the road to a crazy environment in the first ever night game at the big house as favorites? Turnovers in one word would be a reason why Michigan can win on Saturday night as the Irish kept shooting themselves in the foot a week ago with 8 penalties, 3 interceptions, and 2 fumbles lost. Defensive Coordinator Greg Mattison knows how to disguise blitzes and coverage where it may throw Notre Dame and the young Tommy Rees at QB off on the road.

Then there is Michigan's offense which put up 532 yards on Notre Dame's defense last year has the same QB that terrorized them a year ago in Denard Robinson. The offensive line is coming off a very good game and has just enough balance to keep Notre Dame on it's toes.

Notre Dame absolutely dominated South Florida and they know it. They doubled them in yardage but turned the ball over numerous times in the red zone including a fumble returned for a touchdown at the goal line in the first quarter. Notre Dame comes in this game looking to have revenge against Michigan after they came into their house and won 28-24 in an offensive thriller as both teams put up 500+ yards of offense. I look for Notre Dame's defense which played much better than the score board indicated holding dual threat QB B.J Daniels and his offense to just 254 total yards. This is the same defense that played so well down the stretch in 2010.

This week we go with the Irish surprisingly getting 3 points on the road I recommend you buy the points so you win if the game is decided by a field goal. My reasoning is Tommy Rees as I do not feel like he will be phased by this environment at all. As a starter Rees led Notre Dame on the road last year in easy victories at Miami and again at USC. Western Michigan was able to move the ball on Michigan and Alex Carder to Jordan White. White is a next level talent who caught 92 balls for over 1300 yards a year ago and caught 12 for 119 vs. Michigan, but Notre Dame has a better talent in Michael Floyd who will make his presence in this game early and often.

Larry Ness

Ball State vs South Florida
Pick: Ball State

Ball St has now had three head coaches the last four seasons. Brady Hoke left for San Diego St after the school’s memorable 12-2 season (opened 12-0), then Stan Parrish suffered through 2-10 and 4-8 seasons in 2009 and 2010. Pete Lembo is a first-time head coach in 2011 and he won his debut this past Saturday, as Ball St beat Indiana 27-20 at Indianapolis. The Cardinals fell behind the Hoosiers but outscored them 20-6 for the seven-point win. QB Keith Wenning won the QB job in the off-season and was very good, completing 23-of-29 for 173 yards with two TDs and no INTs. The running game produced 210 yards (4.6 YPC) while Ball St’s rush D held Indiana to just 103 yards on the ground (3.2 YPC). USF was one of two unranked schools to upset a ranked opponent in CFB’s opening week (Baylor over TCU was the other), as Skip Holltz went into South Bend (where his dad won a national championship) and won 23-20, surviving countless rain delays. However, anyone who saw the game or checked the box score, realized that the USF defense got pushed all over the field, allowing 508 yards. Notre Dame QBs Rees and Crist threw for 391 yards but had three INTs. The Irish also lost two fumbles, losing the TO ‘battle’ 5-0! USF quarterback BJ Daniels is being lauded for his effort but come on, he was a modest 18-of-30 for just 128 yards passing (one TD / 0 INTs) and ran 12 times for 37 yards. Is that really anything to talk about? Let’s not forget that USF’s entire offensive output was 254 total yards. USF returns to Tampa this Saturday, now ranked 22nd by the AP. Skip Holtz has been very dangerous in his career at both East Carolina and now USF as a an underdog but as a home favorite he was 2-4 ATS last year with USF and a modest 9-6 ATS in that role while at ECU. USF is riding high off the Notre Dame win and Ball St is a veteran team with 17 returning starters. Let me also note that Ball St is an impressive 17-5 as a road dog the last five seasons. The points are well worth taking in this one, as USF will be happy with any kind of win.

Jack Jones

Air Force +1.5

The TCU Horned Frogs came into the season with way too much hype. They were favored at Baylor, and lost 48-50 to the superior team. After a 13-0 season last year, the Horned Frogs are still getting too much respect from odds makers this week.

TCU only returned eight starters from last year's squad, with three on offense and five on defense. Clearly, their defense isn't the same dominant unit it was last year as Baylor rolled up 564 total yards on them last week. The Horned Frogs got their offense going in the second half, but that's not saying much against a soft Baylor defense.

Air Force is a team that comes into the 2011 season underrated. The Falcons returned 14 starters from a team that went 9-4 last year, including QB Tim Jefferson (1,459 passing yards, 794 rushing yards, 25 total TD's) and leading rusher Asher Clark (1,031 yards, five TD). This is a team that is poised to overtake TCU in the Mountain West with a win this week.

The Falcons beat South Dakota 37-20 last week in a game that was much more of a blowout than the final score would indicate. Air Force dominated the first half with a 30-7 lead and had a 340-130 yard edge. They extended it to 37-7 on their opening drive of the third quarter, but allowed two fourth quarter touchdowns in garbage time. They'll be ready to go for a full four quarters Saturday.

The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. The Falcons are 13-3 over the last four years in Mountain West home games, proving that Colorado Springs is a very tough place to play.

Another interesting note is that almost 95% of bettors are backing TCU, yet the line has dropped from TCU -2.5 to -1 in most places. That shows that the sharp money is with Air Force, and I'll side with the sharps in this one folks. Roll with Air Force Saturday.

Brad Diamond Sports

Temple vs. Akron
Play: Temple -15

If you read our free analysis on Temple over Villanova, we had the situation right on point. Here the Akron Zips (1-11) similar to 2010 have the lesser strength at the line of scrimmage and at the skill positions. The 30-0 loss to the Owls last season showed the Zips managing just 8 first downs. Clearly, Temple did start a few NFL types, but still this season the Owls are just as talented with their stop troops. In fact, there are 7 seniors lining up each week. Akron had just 5 first downs against Oregon State, 90 total yards on offense. My point, the Temple defense is just as athletic as Oregon State. Plus RB Pierce gives Temple a three touchdown advantage going into the battle. If the QB position continues to improve this should end up being a BLOWOUT. The Owls are 4-0 ATS in the series, while the Zips are a floundering 1-6 ATS in the month of September. Plus the Owls have covered 3 straight in the #2 line game of the season. Temple 31- 10.

Matt Fargo

No Illinois vs. Kansas
Play: No Illinois -4.5

We rode Northern Illinois to a win last week and we will jump on them again this week as the Huskies have pretty much the same advantages as they had against Army. When looking at Northern Illinois, you think of one thing and that is its rushing game. The Huskies finished last season seventh in the country in rushing offense with 260.4 ypg and 6.3 ypc and there will be no letting up. Against the Black Knights they rushed for 289 yards on 47 carries (6.1 ypc) which is right on pace again. Kansas was able to get by McNeese St. by 18 points but it was far from a solid effort against a FCS team. The Jayhawks outgained McNeese St. by just 27 total yards and that was due to allowing 325 yards through the air on 21-31 completions (67.7 percent). That is very alarming as the Jayhawks strength was supposed to be in the secondary. Last season Kansas was 103rd in the nation in scoring defense and 98th in total defense. That included a dreadful 205.2 ypg allowed on the ground, 107th in the country. The Jayhawks will be challenged to stopping the run just the way Army was. The most important fact is that the Huskies bring back all five offensive linemen and that is huge. Speaking of huge, that is what the Huskies are as they come in averaging 310 lbs across the line and they will push around a very undersized Kansas defensive line that checks in at an average of only 262 lbs. That is going to provide a massive push all game long and Kansas will not have an answer. The Kansas offense is not much better as it finished 111th in scoring and 113th overall last season. The Jayhawks managed 447 total yards last week with 310 yards of that coming on the ground but that was on 55 carries (5.5 ypc) which is not that impressive. Army racked up 303 yards rushing against Northern Illinois last Saturday but it trailed 49-6 and a lot of those yards came in garbage time when the game was already decided and the Huskies had their backups in. Kansas will have trouble early on as well. Coming into the season, the Huskies defense was a concern as they have just two starters back from last year. However this is not an inexperienced defense as the players coming back have plenty of snaps under their belts so while the top line shows a green defense, digging deeper shows it is not as bad as it looks. Even better is that because the offense has a huge advantage over the Kansas defense, the Jayhawks are not capable of coming from behind in a catch up situation. 3* Northern Illinois Huskies

Tony Stoffo

Central Michigan vs. Kentucky
Play: Central Michigan +10.5

Free College Play for Saturday September 10th Central Michigan at Kentucky Last week I told you that the Wildcats would be hurting big time on offense with the loss of Hartline, Cobb, Matthews, and Locke all gone due to graduation. Well this information led to an easy cover with the Hilltoppers as Kentucky could only score 14 points and mange only 190 yards in total offense. They only completed 7 passes and rushed for 2.8 yards a rush. Saying this the sharps also noticed and this line has started to drop in the Chippewas' favor. Can't see Kentucky turning things around in this short time frame which makes the double digits with Central Michigan the way to go here.

Joe Gavazzi

Cent. Michigan +10.5

These two are off miserable offensive performances in week 1, in which they both won but did not cover as favorite. In winning 21-6 vs. South Carolina St. the Chips had a yardage edge of 256-137. Kentucky struggled vs. in -state foe Western Kentucky winning 14-3, but being outgained 234-190 by the 'Toppers. Strongest unit on the field, however, will be a Kentucky defense that returns 10 yet the offense is so lethargic that it is hard to recommend a play on them as double-digit home favorite, despite the obvious class difference between the SEC and MAC.

Army +9.5

New SD St. HC Rocky Long brings his minions 3,000 miles to play at 9:00 AM body time on the Banks of the Hudson. A fundamental case can be made for Aztecs success as Long is a veteran defensive oriented coach. He has the advantage of coaching a defense who in the last season has faced the option attacks of Air Force (27-25), Navy (35-14) in a Bowl and CAL POLY SLO in week 1, whom he defeated 49-21. In that contest he outrushed the Mustangs 289-137 and put up a balanced 203 PY. In short, despite retuning only 5 on defense they will be well prepared for the Army attack. The Cadets 49-26 loss at NIU was phony in so many ways. Army had 3 fumbles and a blocked punt in the first half resulting in an eventual 39-6 half-time hole they eventually trailed 49-6 before meaningless late game scores. The reality is, however, this offense was never going to make up that margin. Aztec backers will further point to the fact that Army is just 3-12 ATS HD. Again this week they may struggle with a high power passing attack, this time led by veteran QB Lindley. None the less, the divergent results of last week has led to an adjustment of over a TD in this line. Following a game 1 embarrassing loss, look for Army to play with far more focus coming in under this inflated number vs. a team who is far from home at a unique football playing time.

Toledo +18

The Luke Fickell era got off to a positive start with a 42-0 whipping of Akron (+9 AFP). They outgained the Zip's 517-90 to push their recent record to 10-0 ATS vs. non-con foes. It will be an easy leap to believe they will likewise destroy another MAC rep, in-state foe Toledo. As MAC followers will attest it is a long leap from Akron to Toledo who is quit possibly the worst and best this league has to offer. Yet, despite Toledo's week 1 thumping of New Hampshire 58-22(+26 AFP) this line has actually been adjusted by nearly a TD in OHIO ST. favor. That's just wrong! The Rockets ran and passed for 287+ yards in that win as well as profiting from a +5 in the turnover column. Should Ohio St. be looking past this foe, they need only to inquire of Purdue and Michigan. Each of whom have lost to the Rockets in the last 3 years. And you know this Toledo team who with 18 RS, is one of the most experienced in the land, will be bringing all of their weapons vs. Big brother.

Mississippi St -6

This comes in the face of many veteran handicappers who will be playing the Auburn bounce back in the face of divergent results from week 1. And with line value that approaches 4 TDs from where this final line would have been after Auburn defeated Oregon for the national championship just 8 months ago. But this Auburn team in no way resembles that title team. Their 16-0 SU streak will come to a crashing halt today. We began last Sat. with a 3% LTS winner on Utah St. (+23) vs. these Tigers. They should have won the game, with only a miraculous home field come back resulting in a 44-38 Auburn victory. But this is a team who returns just 3 starters to each side of the ball. In short, they are the least experienced team in the country. Miss St. is clearly for real, and rapidly improving. There will obviously be no game 2 let down playing the defending champs. 16 RS played in mid-season form in a 59-14 opening week win at Memphis. They were in total control of both sides of the line of scrimmage the entire game gaining 309 running and 336 passing. Follow this +35 AFP momentum winner against traditional bounce back logic.

Ball St. +20

Each of these teams is off major upsets, each by +13 AFP. Thus we get a fair line with little adjustment. Though Ball St. win vs. Big Brother Indiana is cause for celebration (they out rushed them 210-103) it could never compare to the exhilaration a team still feels after winning at South Bend. A closer inspection reveals just how unlikely that upset truly was. South Florida was outgained 508-254 but profited from a +5 in the turnover column. That victory runs the underdog record to 28-10 ATS for Skip Holtz. But combined with his record of 11-19 ATS as favorites means the dog is now 47-21 ATS in games coached by Holtz at East Carolina and South Florida. Big time atmosphere of coaching at Lucas Oil will do a lot to alleviate any discomfort that first year Ball HC Lembo (formerly Elon) will feel in his first true road trip at South Florida. Can't dismiss the fact that Ball is 19-5 ATS as road dog.

Marc Lawrence

Utah at USC
Play: Utah

Gee, you think the Pac-12 would’ve gone easy on the ‘new kids on the block,’ right? Wrong. Turns out that Utah’s first taste of battle in its new conference will be with one of the loop’s linchpins, powerful USC. The Trojans may have drawn the assignment of welcoming the Utes to Pac-12 country but they’ll be hell bent on insuring the interlopers don’t make it to the inaugural conference title game – one in which the men of Troy are ineligible to play this campaign. The big negative for the newbies is scheduling: Utah follows this head-knocker by taking on blood rival BYU at Provo. But a look at the Utes’ recent performance in the ticket-cashing department and we start to get interested. Utah has more than answered the bell in previous contests against the former Pac-10, going 19-8-1 ATS as pick or dog, including 10-2 ATS when off a SU win. In addition, the boys from Salt Lake City are an eye-popping 12-2 ATS as dogs of 6 or more points. Coach Whittingham contributes as well, going 27-14 SU away from Salt Lake City with only seven of those losses coming by double digits. We won’t deny that USC is loaded with quality players or that its coaching staff is under heavy pressure to produce. But wanting to win is one thing, while doing so with a suspect defense (allowed 400 YPG last season and held on for dear life against a furious Minnesota rally last week) is quite another. We’ll find out today if the talent on this squad can step up – or whether it continues to sulk over the burden of NCAA admonishments. Well-coached, quality dog gets the call here. We recommend a 1-unit play on Utah.

Jim Feist

San Jose State vs. UCLA
Play: UCLA -21

UCLA found some offense last week in a 38-34 loss at Houston as QB Richard Brehaut went 17 for 26 for 264 yards and two touchdowns. The defense was awful, but they play a San Jose State team this week that has no offense. Stanford ran past San Jose State 57-3 in the season opener Saturday. The Spartans fumbled six times and lost three of them. The Spartans are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog and 7-24 ATS in their last 31 games overall. Personal responsibility littered UCLA's locker room last week: "I take responsibility for the way the defense played in the first half," safety Tony Dye said. "We had no fire." They will here at home against a cupcake. The UCLA Bruins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Play UCLA!

The Gridiron Gold Sheet

UTEP vs SMU
Play: SMU -16

UTEP (6-7 SU, 4-7 ATS in 2010) had a strong offense and weak defense for Head Coach Mike Price, but it was a senior-laden class and Price loses his top QB. So the Miners are rebuilding this season and Price has loaded up on junior college players to try and be the bridge to another bowl season. 2 starters return on offense, 9 on defense. They are going with junior QB Nick Lamaison (3 TDs, 2 INTs), who threw a 25-yard touchdown pass to Donavon Kemp on UTEP's first play of overtime as the Miners escaped Stony Brook's upset bid in a 31-24 season-opening victory on Saturday night. Lamaison was 24 of 38 for 365 yards with three TDs and two interceptions. Kemp had four receptions for 144 yards, and Mike Edwards caught seven passes for 85 yards. But the defense gave yo 410 yards (231 rushing). The entire starting offensive line is gone, a unit that ranked No. 34 nationally in sacks allowed. UTEP’s awful defense had a new scheme last fall — a 4-3 base — and a largely new defensive staff but little helped. They righted the ship at home in a big 28-14 win over SMU, so this is a revenge spot for the Mustangs. The Miners employed a 3-3-5 scheme in 2008 and 2009, but now run a 4-3. UTEP is on a13-9 run over the total. SMU made a bowl for coach June Jones last season, but perhaps they were getting too much respect by oddsmakers, carrying a 3-7 ATS run into the new season. His passing attack averaged 25.7 points and 275.8 yards passing and returns 18 starters, including 10 on offense, led by junior QB Kyle Padron (31 TDs, 14 INTs) and senior RB Zach Line (1,494 yards, 6.1 ypc). The defense is small and lost to Texas Tech (35-27) and Houston (45-20). The Mustangs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.

Craig Trapp

Purdue vs. Rice
Play: Purdue -1.5

Purdue had nice comeback win against pretty decent MTSU team, think they keep up the momentum as they face an average Rice team. Rice will keep this close early but the offense of Purdue will win this one. Last year PUR was killed by injuries so forget about how bad they were in 2010, they win this one and cover easily.