Teddy Covers
California @ Colorado
PICK: California -6.5
Last week in this spot, we bet against Colorado by way of an Under cash. This week, we’ll look to fade the Buffaloes as a side against a team that dominated them by a 52-7 margin last year, yet only needs to win by a TD on Saturday to cover this pointspread. Here’s a brief excerpt from last week’s write-up:
“First year Buffaloes head coach Jon Embree spent summer camp looking to develop playmakers on the offensive side of the football. Unfortunately for Embree, he couldn’t find any – former head coach Dan Hawkins left the cupboard rather bare in terms of skill position talent. After Colorado’s last scrimmage, Embree told the Denver Post “The offense was not good enough. We’re going to have changes on the depth chart” . Those depth chart changes were completely ineffectual in the Buffs 17 point loss at Hawaii last week. Senior quarterback Tyler Hansen was sacked seven times and Colorado’s offense was held to 240 yards (just 4.1 yards per play) against a mid-tier WAC defense.
Things certainly won’t be easier for Colorado at home this week against Cal. The Bears sacked Hansen six times last year, and sacked Fresno QB Derek Carr six times in their opener last week. Cal senior punter Bryan Anger – a two time first team All PAC-10 player – is likely to help the Bears win the field position battle all day. Meanwhile, Jeff Tedford seems to have found himself a quarterback in Zack Maynard, who found big play receivers Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones downfield repeatedly against the Bulldogs. Cal should easily win this game by a touchdown or more. Take the Bears.
Steve Janus
Iowa Hawkeyes -6.5
I will take my chances on the Hawkeyes at less than a touchdown against Iowa State. The Hawkeyes looked sloppy to open the season, but still managed to come away with a 34-7 win. Iowa State looked even worse, and nearly loss at home to UNI (Div. II). The Hawkeyes have clearly been the better team the last two years, winning by 32 in their last trip to Ames and by 28 a year ago in Iowa City. The Cyclones may keep it interesting early, but Iowa will end up winning this game by at least 10 points if not by a lot more.
Iowa is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Black Widow
1* on Florida Gators -23
The Florida Gators are coming off a 41-3 victory over Florida Atlantic and we fully expect another blowout this Saturday against UAB. The Gators outgained the Owls 468-137 in the game and won by 38 points despite turning the ball over three more times than FAU. FAU's lone score came after an interception by backup quarterback Jeff Driskel, who entered late in the first half. UAB is coming off a 4-8 season and they simply are no match for the Gators in this one. Florida is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games. The Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. This team is hungry after a "down" 8-5 season and is primed to bounce back in the SEC this year. They won't let UAB hang around Saturday. Take Florida and lay the points.
Rick Needham
Stanford -21
Here’s The Deal: When Duke and Stanford meet for the first time since 1972, Wallace Wade Stadium will be brimming with bright young college students. There’ll be a handful of rather gifted football players in attendance as well. Cardinal QB Andrew Luck, for instance. The Heisman contender was predictably crisp in Week 1, tossing two touchdown passes and running for a third score in his team’s 57-3 spanking of San Jose State. Now that Oregon has already lost a game, falling to LSU in Arlington, Tex., Stanford becomes the Pac-12’s best hope to represent the conference in the BCS National Championship Game. The Blue Devils, on the other hand, would be thrilled to just qualify for a bowl game. The beleaguered program, which appears to be stuck in neutral under head coach David Cutcliffe, lost its opener to Richmond of the FCS. Its already-thin postseason margin for error now evaporated, Duke will be seeking signs of progress in Week 2.
From the Stanford Sideline: The Cardinal’s ability to score points in bunches will not be thwarted in Durham. Luck will arrive in North Carolina knowing that he might have been a Panther at this time had he left the Farm following his sophomore year. He’ll operate behind a terrific line that’ll open holes for Stepfan Taylor, while blowing Duke a few yards off the ball. Not only does Stanford boast one of the nation’s best collections of tight ends, but speedy WR Chris Owusu is completely healthy for the first time in a long time. The senior, who can get behind the Duke secondary, opened the year with seven catches for 75 yards and a 59-yard kick return.
From the Blue Devil Perspective: San Jose State wasn’t able to exploit a Stanford defensive backfield in transition. The Blue Devils, though, might be able to. Duke has the components of a dangerous passing attack, headed by one of the ACC’s better quarterbacks and a seasoned group of pass-catchers. Sean Renfree has a live arm and a keen feel for Cutcliffe’s offense, spreading the ball around to TE Cooper Helfet and receivers Conner Vernon and Donovan Varner. With nothing to lose in this one, the Blue Devils are capable of catching the Cardinal napping as it looks ahead to next weekend’s league opener at Arizona.
What To Watch Out For: While the Stanford offense is just fine these days, the defense needs some tweaking before the level of competition spikes dramatically. The trip to Duke represents a good test for the Cardinal secondary before going up against Arizona QB Nick Foles and WR Juron Criner. Vernon and Varner are a couple of skilled route-runners who are going to force cornerbacks Barry Browning and Johnson Bademosi to play tighter in coverage than they had to a week ago.
BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: Provided Stanford plays with the proper focus and motivation, it’ll steamroll Duke en route to a comfortable victory. Luck and his supporting cast will be no match for a Blue Devils defense that’s painfully shy of size and proven stoppers. The Cardinal will seize control of the game before halftime, coasting in the second half. At some point in the fourth quarter, head coach David Shaw and his assistants will already be thinking ahead to next Saturday’s key showdown with Arizona in the desert. I'll TAKE STANFORD ... in a rout!
Telly
1of 6 free plays for Saturday. Please check my site for others.
Stanford -20
Scott Spreitzer
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
The Boston Red Sox lost the opening game of this weekend series and they have looked beatable taking on some of the better teams in the league. Boston has won just 2 of 9 in September, and I believe they're in for another tough outing tonight. The Sox will send Kyle Weiland to the mound for his 4th appearance and 3rd start. The righthander's two starts thus far both came against the lowly Baltimore Orioles and Weiland struggled. He was tagged for 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in just 10 innings of work. He'll face a hot Tampa Bay squad that's 5-1 in their last six games, scoring 31 runs while allowing just 19. Tampa will send Jeremy Hellickson to the bump. The young righty from Des Moines sports a smoking hot 2.90 ERA & 1.13 WHIP in 25 starts this season. He's held six of his last seven opponents to 2 earned runs or less and he owns a 0.93 WHIP in 12 home starts. Now that Tampa Bay has come alive a little bit at the plate, Hellickson should receive enough run support to topple the Red Sox again. The Rays are on a 20-6 run as a favorite and they're on a 5-0 run against righthanded starters. More of the same tonight. I'm backing the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday.
John Ryan
Oregon St. at Wisconsin
Prediction: Oregon St.
5* graded play on Oregon State as they take to the road to face Wisconsin set to start at Noon ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that OSU will lose this game by 22 or fewer points. Oregon State will make this game extremely close with a balance offensive attack that will keep Wisconsin on it?s heels. The simulator shows that OSU will gain between 150 to 200 net passing yards and will rush for a solid 4.0 to 4.5 yards per rush. In past games where OSU achieved these performance levels they are 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1992; 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. Normally, when a team like OSU lost in OT in their previous game it is a huge emotional wound to overcome. The fact that they lost in OT to a FCS opponent in Sacramento State alters that phenomenon. Losing to such an inferior opponent was certainly a big time wake-up call and tool that the entire coaching staff used throughout the week. OSU will have an intense focus entering this game to prove to themselves that they are not the team that made too many mental mistakes and thought that game was won before it even started. Take Oregon State.
Ray Monohan
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
The MLB betting world did not expect much from the Rays this year as they lost much of their run scoring prowess and pitching to free agency. But if the Rays can take six out of seven from the Red Sox in the next 10 days, and the Red Sox lose to the Blue Jays again, then the Rays will take the AL wild card lead and may not look back. The Rays will want to be careful though as it looks like competition for the AL wild card will be coming from the AL West, especially if the Red Sox go on a massive losing streak. Jeremy Hellickson starts the game for the Rays on the mound and he has been pitching well as of late along with being successful against the Red Sox this year. His record is 12-10 on the season, but his twelfth win was his most recent start against the Baltimore Orioles where he went nine innings and gave up only one run. He is 1-1 against the Red Sox this season and has an ERA of 3.65 against Boston this year. There just aren’t enough good prospects in Pawtucket to keep filling the holes that appear in the Red Sox’ starting rotation. It is something that the Rays will exploit.
Rob Vinciletti
TCU vs. Air Force
Play: TCU +1
The line has moved to +1 for TCU as the public remembers last weeks loss to Baylor. The fact remains though that TCU did not lay down and fought back from a big deficit, when they could have packed it in. Air Force is off a win vs South Dakota, they will be playing a different level of competition here, tonight as TCU Is still 6-1 in the series, 24-0 on Saturdays and 5-1 on the road when the total is 49.5 to 52. They may be off an upset loss, but they are still very good and can win this game.
Dennis Macklin
Fresno State vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska -28½
The Pat Hill Fresno State mantra of “anyone, anytime, anyplace” is a thing of the past. The Bulldogs used to thrive in spots like these but the program has hit hard times of late. Last year, the Bulldogs played Ole Miss and Boise on the road and got whacked by a combined 106-38. Last week, Fresno played Cal on a neutral field (Candlestick Park) and was the sexy dog play for many touts. Despite having a huge crowd advantage, the Bulldogs were dominated 36-21 by a below average Golden Bear outfit getting outgained 413-210. The Huskers spanked Chatanooga in their opener and have a revenge matchup with Washington on deck. Nebraska can be strangled on offense when Martinez is not playing well but the blackshirts are nails on defense and should be up to the test in their home opener facing an offensive line featuring five newbies. Fresno will be life and death to get double-digits here so don’t mind laying four touchdowns in Lincoln with a team looking to get off to a fast start in their home opener.
Dave Price
1 Unit on NY Yankees -130
The Yankees are an impressive 42-14 in Sabathia's last 56 starts. They're also 21-5 in his last 26 starts vs. the American League West. Sabathia has won his last 3 starts against the Angels while not allowing more than 1 earned run in any of those outings. Take the Yanks.
Kyle Hunter
UNLV vs. Washington St
Play: Over 54½
This number is set lower than it would have been because Washington State's starting QB (Tuel) was injured last week. The thing I think most people are overlooking is that Lobbestael, the backup, did a great job when he came in last weekend. UNLV's defense is absolutely terrible, and the Cougars should be able to score quite a bit. Washington State's pass defense is very bad, and I expect UNLV to be able to put up some points as well. The over is 7-0-1 in Washington State's last 8 games as the favorite. The over is 8-2-1 in UNLV's last 11 games. Take the over.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Arizona Diamondbacks -148
The D-backs are worth a shot at this price considering they have now won 15 of their last 17 games. Plus, the Padres have dropped 13 of their last 15 contests, including 9 in a row on the road. Arizona has won 5 straight against San Diego, and it is 19-6 in its last 25 home meetings against the Padres. The Padres are 1-5 in Stauffer's last 6 starts and 0-5 in his last 5 road starts. The D-backs, meanwhile, are 3-0 in Miley's last 3 starts. Take the red-hot Snakes.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on KC Royals +130
The Royals are showing value in the underdog role tonight. They've lost the first 2 of the 4-game set but are 6-1 in their last 7 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Seattle's Pineda got out of the gate fast but has really worn down. The Mariners have lost 12 of his last 16 starts. The Royals have won 2 of Paulino's last 3 starts, and he should have plenty of success in this one against a light-hitting ball club that isn't familiar with his stuff. Take Kansas City.
Gregg Price
South Carolina vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia +3
Georgia - Take Georgia at home as these 2 teams always play tight games, but not only that, I just don't see Georgia looking that bad 2 weeks in a row. I don't think people realize how good Boise st is. Its not like Georgia got beat by some cupcake team. Now because of that loss everyone thinks they stink, and they don't. You will see a different Georgia team on Saturday.