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Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 10, 2011

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Jack Howard

Alabama -10 Over Penn State

Penn State is facing one of the best defenses in the country and they are doing so with two unproven and inexperienced quarterbacks in Matt McGloin and Rob Bolden. Not only is Alabama very talented on the defensive side of the ball but they have alot of depth as well which will eventually wear down Penn State's overmatched offensive line. Prediction: 31-10 Alabama

South Carolina +3 Over Georgia
Georgia lost 35-21 to Boise State last week and the score doesn't indicate how much of a blowout this game really was and it was basically a home game for the bulldogs . As for the Gamecocks, this is Spurrier's best team since he's been at South Carolina as they are currently ranked 12 . He also has one of the best runningbacks in the country in Marcus Lattimore who put up 182 rushing yards against Georgia last year. Prediction: 28-24 South Carolina

 
Posted : September 10, 2011 11:43 am
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Harry Bondi

Penn St (+10) over Alabama

Like last night's free game winner on Missouri, we feel this is a huge overlay. When was the last time Penn State a double digit home dog even if they are playing the best team in America? We went back 10 years and then stopped looking. The Nittany Lions are always tough at home and have solid skill position players and a very good veteran defense. Alabama QB AJ McCarron is making his first ever road start and going against QB's making their first road start is a 60% winning percentage ATS. Take the double digit Big Ten home dog playing with revenge from last years 24-3 loss!

 
Posted : September 10, 2011 12:38 pm
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O.C. Dooley

Louisiana-Lafayette +8.5

Visiting Louisiana-Lafayette is coming off yet another dreadful season (3-9) which saw the defense (37 points per game allowed) fall apart and end up with a #112 national ranking among all Division I-A schools. Despite those negatives along with the fact that the defense surrendered 61 points in a week-one road setback, the line on this particular contest has actually been dropping from an opening figure of 10 points which speaks volumes. There is hope for Lafayette as new head coach Nark Hudspeth has a winning pedigree posting a 66-20 record in his seven seasons at North Alabama where he led the program to the Division II playoffs five times. Hudspeth has spent his entire career coaching in the deep south including most recently as wide receiver coach with Mississippi State of the dominant SEC Conference. Last weekend Kent State (29-53 past seven seasons) failed to cover a large spread in a 48-7 setback at Alabama which does not exactly give them confidence going into this particular contest. Considering that Kent State has had only ONE winning season spanning the past decade, it is amazing that the oddsmakers decided to cast them as such a prohibitive favorite. According to my database research this is an outstanding percentage wager as we begin with a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (57-25 past ten years) which plays ON road teams like Lafayette after a game where the defense allowed 42+ points, against an opponent who just suffered an ugly loss of 28+ points in margin That system supports Lafayette who is UNDEFEATED the past two years (6-0 ATS) following a game where the defense yielded at least 37 points. Dating back to the 1992 campaign Kent State is a wretched 3-12 ATS after a game where the offense was held to “single digits” on the scoreboard. But the real big news here is a dynamic statistic that dates all the way back to the 1980 season that sees home favorites like Kent State coning off a game against mighty Alabama where the defense permitted at least 40 points a disastrous 1-14 ATS. Now you know why the line on this primetime contest has been dropping

 
Posted : September 10, 2011 2:17 pm
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