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Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 11,2010

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Tom Stryker
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Mississippi Rebels vs. Tulane Green Wave
Play: Mississippi Rebels -20½
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Mississippi blew a 31-10 halftime lead against Jacksonville State and wound up losing the game outright in double overtime 49-48. Rebels head coach Houston Nutt wasn’t pleased at all with that performance and you just know he will have his troops completely focused for this game.
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Coach Nutt will be happy to see Tulane too. Ole Miss has dominated the Green Wave in the last nine meetings posting a solid 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS record. The Rebels have been at their best too when priced as a big favorite of -19 or more notching a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS record in their last six.
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Tulane does return 12 starters from last season and the Green Wave’s season-opening 27-21 home win over Southeastern Louisiana is noted. However, Wave head coach Bob Toledo is going to have his hands full with this embarrassed Mississippi bunch. Technically speaking, as a home underdog, Tulane is a soft 20-41-2 ATS including a pathetic 2-13 ATS in this role priced at +13 or more. Also, against SEC competition, the Green Wave has been calm posting a weak 2-33 SU and 14-21 ATS mark including a nasty 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in this role in their own backyard.
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Ole Miss dedicated the 2010 season to their lost teammate Bennie Arbam. A blemish to Jacksonville State in the home opener will only fuel the Rebels more. With the ESPN2 cameras rolling, watch Coach Nutt’s kids take out their frustrations on the home team. Take Mississippi!

 
Posted : September 10, 2010 10:11 am
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Hollywood SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Tech at New Mexico
Prediction: New Mexico
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The Lobos will never look worse in the eyes of the public than they do right now after getting destroyed by Oregon, 70-0. But traveling to Eugene to play a 10-3 squad in '09 who returned 18 starters was too tough an assignment for Mike Locksley's crew. Returning to Albuquerque as a big home underdog is a better spot against a Texas Tech team that returns just 13 starters from last year's 9-4 team. The Red Raiders will not control the line of scrimmage the way the Ducks did. While Texas Tech won (but failed to cover) by a 35-27 score against SMU, the Mustangs controlled the clock for over 32 minutes. Four turnovers did SMU in -- or that is a much different game. The Red Raiders have many questions unresolved on defense as well as with their offensive line. Look for Locksley's desire for more physical play from his Lobos to produce a solid running game from their two returning backs which will be enough to keep them within the final number.

 
Posted : September 10, 2010 10:13 am
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Tony KarpinskiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hawaii vs. Army
Play: Army -2.5
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This is a tough scheduling spot for Hawaii. They played a tough game in the heat against USC last Thursday and got beat up pretty good. Now they have to recover from a battle against USC and travel over 4,000 miles on a 12 hour flight to play a 12 Noon ET kickoff when the Hawaii players biological clock in their bodies feel like its 6am. Hawaii also has limited time to prepare for the Triple Option rushing attack of Army who put up over 300 yards of rushing in their opening game. ARMY gets the 4-12 point win here on early action Saturday.

 
Posted : September 10, 2010 10:13 am
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Tony StoffoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis vs. East Carolina
Play: East Carolina -12.5
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On Sunday I gave out the Pirates as my Sharp money play of the week and they sure delivered as they put up 51 points on a very good Tulsa squad. This week that face a really bad Memphis team that got lite up allowing 49 points to an average at best Mississippi State offense. Saying this I look for the Pirates to come with big effort here and again explode the scoreboard here today. While defensively they did not look that well against a very experienced Tulsa offense led by quarterback G.J. Kinne. However this week they will be facing a Tigers team that got only 9 first downs, and 41 rushing yards in their embarrassing offensive showing against the Bulldogs. Plus throw in the fact that East Carolina will be returning 4 defensive starters this week from injury that will surely beef up their front, and you can see how the Pirates make this game a runaway in a hurry here. So let's lay the big number as East Carolina cruises to the big win and spread cover in this spot.

 
Posted : September 10, 2010 10:13 am
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Craig TrappFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn State vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -11.5
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Pretty easy here as Bama continues to show what the best recruits can do for a team. Loaded is the only word to explain the depth of Bama. PSU is living off past successes with this early season rankings. Remember last time they played a fast athletic team (Rose Bowl against USC) it was ugly. This Bama team has better QB play and a much better defense, both will be really key in this game. Enjoy this beat down!

 
Posted : September 10, 2010 10:13 am
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Will CoverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami at Buffalo
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The 'Fins shuffle off to Buffalo on Sunday and we feel that the "short" is the way to go in this NFL AFC-East Game One matchup. Miami is laying at bit too many with an improved Bills team playing at home in front of their rabid fans. This one goes to the wire with an outright Buffalo upset no surprise. Bills have gone a fine 5-1 ATS last six at Ralph Wilson Stadium vs the Dolphins as part of a 12-5 ATS "home run" last 17 times in this series. Tropical Fish can't swim in Lake Erie...take the points!

 
Posted : September 10, 2010 10:14 am
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Craig TrappFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn State vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -11.5
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Pretty easy here as Bama continues to show what the best recruits can do for a team. Loaded is the only word to explain the depth of Bama. PSU is living off past successes with this early season rankings. Remember last time they played a fast athletic team (Rose Bowl against USC) it was ugly. This Bama team has better QB play and a much better defense, both will be really key in this game. Enjoy this beat down!

 
Posted : September 10, 2010 10:15 am
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Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan St. @ Florida Atlantic
PICK: Michigan St. -28
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Let's hear it for the Owls of FAU, who kicked off their 2010 campaign by winning 32-31 at UAB on September 2. It was a terrific win for FAU, which finished just 5-7 last season following an 0-4 start. The Spartans also started off their season with a victory, beating Western Michigan 38-14. The Spartans gained 297 yards on the ground in last Saturday's win, averaging a whopping 8.0 YPC. Freshman Le'Veon Bell led the charge with 141 yards and two TDs on 10 carries while Edwin Baker added 117 yards (17 attempts) and also scored twice. QB Kirk Cousins did a solid job complementing the running game, completing 13-of-21 passes for 186 yards and a TD (no INTs). The defense held the Broncos to just 85 yards rushing and more importantly, after forcing just 14 takeaways all of last season, forced three turnovers in its first game of 2010. Alfred Morris scored on 38-yard run with 2:20 remaining to rally FAU to a come-from-behind 32-31 win at UAB. Morris ran for a school-record 1,392 yards in '09 and finished with 103 yards on 16 carries. QB Jeff Van Camp also enjoyed a banner night, throwing for 254 yards with three TDs (just one INT). However, FAU's rush defense allowed UAB to gain 345 rushing yards on the ground (7.3 YPC) and one wonders how it can possibly handle the Spartans' running game in this one. My best guess is that it CAN'T! Opponents averaged 220.6 YPG on the ground vs the Owls last season (6.1 YPC) and the team hardly gave any evidence that things will be better this season, after its Game 1 effort. Kudos to head coach Schnellenberger for engineering the UAB upset but many feel as if Michigan St will be one of the most-improved teams in the Big 10 in 2010. I'll leave you with this stat. FAU was just 1-14 ATS in its last 15 non-conference road games prior to its win and cover at UAB a week ago Thursday. The Owls won't face a middle-of-the-road C-USA team this Saturday but rather an athletic and much bigger Big 10 team in Michigan State. Lay the points.

 
Posted : September 10, 2010 10:17 am
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Teddy CoversFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LSU @ Vanderbilt
PICK: LSU -10
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Vanderbilt wasn’t a good offensive team last year, averaging less than 17 points per game while gaining less than 300 yards of total offense against BCS conference competition. The Commodores are likely to be every bit as weak on the offensive side of the ball this year. Head coach Bobby Johnson quit in mid-July, a clear indication that he didn’t see many bright spots for this squad. Johnson’s replacement, career assistant Robbie Caldwell, has his work cut out for him to field a competitive team in 2010.
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Vanderbilt QB Larry Smith was a disaster last year, throwing only four touchdown passes while completing only 46 percent of his passes in his first year as the starter before his season ended with an injury against Georgia Tech. He has a weak receiving corps to work with, utterly devoid of SEC caliber playmakers. Smith struggled for extended stretches against a mediocre Northwestern stop unit in the opener last Saturday, routinely missing wide open receivers. And, facing a truly stout run defense like that of LSU, this is one game where the Commodores are absolutely going to need a strong performance from their quarterback in order to compete. Let’s not forget that the Commodores lost four offensive line starters to graduation in the offseason, returning only nine combined career starts from last year; a very inexperienced unit facing a dominant front four.
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The betting markets don’t trust Les Miles as a favorite in SEC play. Miles is just 6-18-3 ATS as SEC chalk dating back to the final few games of the 2005 campaign. And bettors certainly weren’t impressed by the Tigers second half meltdown at home against North Carolina last week, nearly blowing a three touchdown lead against the suspension-riddled Tar Heels. But LSU has had little trouble against Vanderbilt, winning all three meetings in the last six years by two touchdowns or more. And the Tigers own significant matchup edges in terms of overall team speed, defense and special teams. There’s a class difference between these two programs that simply isn’t reflected in this surprisingly low pointspread. (#323) 2* Take LSU.

 
Posted : September 10, 2010 10:18 am
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James Patrick Sports
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Rice vs. North Texas
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Playing on any college football home team if they have (17) or more returning starters and are playing with revenge against a non-conference opponent that has won (14) or less games in it's past (22) matchups. This produces an ATS mark of (18-2) for a winning percentage of (90%). Big Game James Patrick's complimnetary selection in Saturday action is North Texas Mean Green.

 
Posted : September 10, 2010 10:19 am
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