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Texas Tech at New Mexico
Prediction: New Mexico
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The Lobos will never look worse in the eyes of the public than they do right now after getting destroyed by Oregon, 70-0. But traveling to Eugene to play a 10-3 squad in '09 who returned 18 starters was too tough an assignment for Mike Locksley's crew. Returning to Albuquerque as a big home underdog is a better spot against a Texas Tech team that returns just 13 starters from last year's 9-4 team. The Red Raiders will not control the line of scrimmage the way the Ducks did. While Texas Tech won (but failed to cover) by a 35-27 score against SMU, the Mustangs controlled the clock for over 32 minutes. Four turnovers did SMU in -- or that is a much different game. The Red Raiders have many questions unresolved on defense as well as with their offensive line. Look for Locksley's desire for more physical play from his Lobos to produce a solid running game from their two returning backs which will be enough to keep them within the final number.
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Iowa St. at Iowa
PLAY: Iowa St.
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The Foot-in-the Mouth award this week goes to Hawkeyes? DE Andrew Clayborn. When asked about football in the state of Iowa, Clayborn responded, Were the only team in the state, as far as I know. We guess you dont know too much, Andrew, considering your in-state neighbors have beaten you seven of the last twelve on the straight-up scoreboard and 10 of 12 on the ATS scorecard. In fact, the Cyclones are a more-than-respectable 3-3 SU in their last six trips to Iowa City and a perfect 6-0 ATS. Paul Rhoads bunch appear to be scholars compared to Clayborn as they check in with a brilliant 6-1 ATS record in their last seven as double-digit road dogs, a clever 9-2 ATS log in Game Two and a nifty 7-2 ATS mark off a double-digit SU home win. Thats straight As compared to Iowa?s 1-5 ATS mark in the second of back-to-back homers and 1-4 ATS number as double-digit non-conference favorites. Rhoads has his Cyclones believing and were along for the ride especially after his kids read the latest bulletin-board material. We recommend a 1-unit play on Iowa State.
Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn State vs. Alabama
Play:Alabama -12
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Don’t let the big number scar you away. Alabama lost a lot during the offseason and it will be without running back Mark Ingram again this week but this team remains extremely deep. The Tide are coming off a blowout win in their opener against San Jose St. as it outgained the Spartans by a whopping 416 total yards. The competition takes a step up in class on Saturday but top to bottom, Alabama has advantages all over the field and it will show. Penn St. took out FCS Youngstown St. by 30 points but that final score was somewhat deceiving as the Nittany Lions won the yardage battle by just 107 total yards. The worst part about the game was the passing defense as they allowed the Penguins to complete 21 of 25 passes and while the yardage did not add up to be a big number, it is a concern. The play of freshman quarterback of Robert Bolden was good but going up against a team in the lower division will do that. Now comes a real test. The huge question for Alabama coming into the season was its defense. The Tide had to replace nine starters from the second ranked defense in the country. The entire defensive line is gone but there is loads of experience in tow led by defensive end Marcell Dareus who was the BCS Championship defensive player of the game. The secondary is the weak point of the defense but the three replacements were all ranked in the top 30 in recruiting circuits. Some publications have Alabama ranked 10th in the nation back there. With Ingram out, Alabama still rushed for 257 yards on 41 carries (6.3 ypc) as it is stacked at that position and while it is impossible to replace Ingram, the Tide are just fine. Quarterback Greg McElroy had a great first season a year ago and he started right where he left off as he went 13-15 for 218 yards and a score. The defense of Penn St. is sure to be a tougher test but I am not sold yet as the Nittany Lions lost five starters from the front seven that finished 9th in total defense and 6th in rushing defense. It is pretty clear what Penn St. is going to do. Penn St. is going to run the ball as to try and shorten the game thus trying to win in a low-scoring contest, but if Alabama can shut down Evan Royster and the Nittany Lion running game, that strategy does no good. The Tide will gladly try and make Bolden beat them. Another big edge for Alabama is the weather as the heat and humidity are both something the Nittany Lions are not accustomed to and we could see fatigue and cramping. Alabama is perfect 5-0 ATS after scoring 35 or more points against a non-conference opponent while Saban is 19-8 ATS in games he has coached following a win by more than 28 points. Penn St. has not been a road underdog since 2007 so this is completely unfamiliar territory. Also, play on home favorites after outgaining their last opponent by 225 or more total yards while returning eight or more starts on offense going up against an opponent returning five or fewer starters on defense. This situation is 62-28 ATS (68.9 percent) since 1992. 3* Alabama Crimson Tide
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Hawaii vs. Army
Play: Army -2.5
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This is a tough scheduling spot for Hawaii. They played a tough game in the heat against USC last Thursday and got beat up pretty good. Now they have to recover from a battle against USC and travel over 4,000 miles on a 12 hour flight to play a 12 Noon ET kickoff when the Hawaii players biological clock in their bodies feel like its 6am. Hawaii also has limited time to prepare for the Triple Option rushing attack of Army who put up over 300 yards of rushing in their opening game. ARMY gets the 4-12 point win here on early action Saturday.
Tony StoffoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis vs. East Carolina
Play: East Carolina -12.5
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On Sunday I gave out the Pirates as my Sharp money play of the week and they sure delivered as they put up 51 points on a very good Tulsa squad. This week that face a really bad Memphis team that got lite up allowing 49 points to an average at best Mississippi State offense. Saying this I look for the Pirates to come with big effort here and again explode the scoreboard here today. While defensively they did not look that well against a very experienced Tulsa offense led by quarterback G.J. Kinne. However this week they will be facing a Tigers team that got only 9 first downs, and 41 rushing yards in their embarrassing offensive showing against the Bulldogs. Plus throw in the fact that East Carolina will be returning 4 defensive starters this week from injury that will surely beef up their front, and you can see how the Pirates make this game a runaway in a hurry here. So let's lay the big number as East Carolina cruises to the big win and spread cover in this spot.
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Mississippi vs. Tulane
Play: Mississippi -20.5
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Mississippi blew a 31-10 halftime lead against Jacksonville State and wound up losing the game outright in double overtime 49-48. Rebels head coach Houston Nutt wasn’t pleased at all with that performance and you just know he will have his troops completely focused for this game.
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Coach Nutt will be happy to see Tulane too. Ole Miss has dominated the Green Wave in the last nine meetings posting a solid 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS record. The Rebels have been at their best too when priced as a big favorite of -19 or more notching a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS record in their last six.
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Tulane does return 12 starters from last season and the Green Wave’s season-opening 27-21 home win over Southeastern Louisiana is noted. However, Wave head coach Bob Toledo is going to have his hands full with this embarrassed Mississippi bunch. Technically speaking, as a home underdog, Tulane is a soft 20-41-2 ATS including a pathetic 2-13 ATS in this role priced at +13 or more. Also, against SEC competition, the Green Wave has been calm posting a weak 2-33 SU and 14-21 ATS mark including a nasty 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in this role in their own backyard.
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Ole Miss dedicated the 2010 season to their lost teammate Bennie Arbam. A blemish to Jacksonville State in the home opener will only fuel the Rebels more. With the ESPN2 cameras rolling, watch Coach Nutt’s kids take out their frustrations on the home team. Take Mississippi!
Craig TrappFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn State vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -11.5
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Pretty easy here as Bama continues to show what the best recruits can do for a team. Loaded is the only word to explain the depth of Bama. PSU is living off past successes with this early season rankings. Remember last time they played a fast athletic team (Rose Bowl against USC) it was ugly. This Bama team has better QB play and a much better defense, both will be really key in this game. Enjoy this beat down!
Mike RoseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Tech Red Raiders at New Mexico Lobos
Play: New Mexico Lobos +24.5
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The Tommy Tuberville era kicked off with a 35-27 Red Raiders victory in front of a sold out Jones AT&T Stadium, but the win came with a number of question marks. The first looks at the team’s killer instinct after being unable to put SMU away after holding a 35-14 lead with just under five minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter. The second dealt with overall execution as the offense, defense, and special teams proved to be very ineffective at times.
The Lobos partook in what amounted to be the most embarrassing loss of the weekend after getting their clocks cleaned to the tune of a 72-0 shutout at the hands of the Oregon Ducks. Their Pac 10 opponent set records, tied records, and simply had a jolly good time at the expense of the Lobos who managed to win just one of their 12 games a season ago.
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Coming off a gutwrenching and embarrassing defeat, I’m expecting the Lobos to put up a much better fight come Saturday night. Though Texas Tech did secure the victory in its home opener, they looked to be a much lesser version of Red Raiders.
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New Mexico only trailed in Lubbock by a TD before Texas Tech blew it wide open in the second half in last year’s meeting, so the Lobos know they can at the very least compete against this team if they put their best foot forward.
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With a home date scheduled against the Texas Longhorns on deck, I don’t expect Tuberville to go all out in trying to cover this number regardless of the fact that he failed to do so last week. My best advice is to take as many points as you can get with the Lobos; just keep it a secret from your buddies so they don’t rip you for backing a club that lost by 10+ TD a week ago
Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan St. @ Florida Atlantic
PICK: Michigan St. -28
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Let's hear it for the Owls of FAU, who kicked off their 2010 campaign by winning 32-31 at UAB on September 2. It was a terrific win for FAU, which finished just 5-7 last season following an 0-4 start. The Spartans also started off their season with a victory, beating Western Michigan 38-14. The Spartans gained 297 yards on the ground in last Saturday's win, averaging a whopping 8.0 YPC. Freshman Le'Veon Bell led the charge with 141 yards and two TDs on 10 carries while Edwin Baker added 117 yards (17 attempts) and also scored twice. QB Kirk Cousins did a solid job complementing the running game, completing 13-of-21 passes for 186 yards and a TD (no INTs). The defense held the Broncos to just 85 yards rushing and more importantly, after forcing just 14 takeaways all of last season, forced three turnovers in its first game of 2010. Alfred Morris scored on 38-yard run with 2:20 remaining to rally FAU to a come-from-behind 32-31 win at UAB. Morris ran for a school-record 1,392 yards in '09 and finished with 103 yards on 16 carries. QB Jeff Van Camp also enjoyed a banner night, throwing for 254 yards with three TDs (just one INT). However, FAU's rush defense allowed UAB to gain 345 rushing yards on the ground (7.3 YPC) and one wonders how it can possibly handle the Spartans' running game in this one. My best guess is that it CAN'T! Opponents averaged 220.6 YPG on the ground vs the Owls last season (6.1 YPC) and the team hardly gave any evidence that things will be better this season, after its Game 1 effort. Kudos to head coach Schnellenberger for engineering the UAB upset but many feel as if Michigan St will be one of the most-improved teams in the Big 10 in 2010. I'll leave you with this stat. FAU was just 1-14 ATS in its last 15 non-conference road games prior to its win and cover at UAB a week ago Thursday. The Owls won't face a middle-of-the-road C-USA team this Saturday but rather an athletic and much bigger Big 10 team in Michigan State. Lay the points.
Teddy CoversFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LSU @ Vanderbilt
PICK: LSU -10
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Vanderbilt wasn’t a good offensive team last year, averaging less than 17 points per game while gaining less than 300 yards of total offense against BCS conference competition. The Commodores are likely to be every bit as weak on the offensive side of the ball this year. Head coach Bobby Johnson quit in mid-July, a clear indication that he didn’t see many bright spots for this squad. Johnson’s replacement, career assistant Robbie Caldwell, has his work cut out for him to field a competitive team in 2010.
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Vanderbilt QB Larry Smith was a disaster last year, throwing only four touchdown passes while completing only 46 percent of his passes in his first year as the starter before his season ended with an injury against Georgia Tech. He has a weak receiving corps to work with, utterly devoid of SEC caliber playmakers. Smith struggled for extended stretches against a mediocre Northwestern stop unit in the opener last Saturday, routinely missing wide open receivers. And, facing a truly stout run defense like that of LSU, this is one game where the Commodores are absolutely going to need a strong performance from their quarterback in order to compete. Let’s not forget that the Commodores lost four offensive line starters to graduation in the offseason, returning only nine combined career starts from last year; a very inexperienced unit facing a dominant front four.
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The betting markets don’t trust Les Miles as a favorite in SEC play. Miles is just 6-18-3 ATS as SEC chalk dating back to the final few games of the 2005 campaign. And bettors certainly weren’t impressed by the Tigers second half meltdown at home against North Carolina last week, nearly blowing a three touchdown lead against the suspension-riddled Tar Heels. But LSU has had little trouble against Vanderbilt, winning all three meetings in the last six years by two touchdowns or more. And the Tigers own significant matchup edges in terms of overall team speed, defense and special teams. There’s a class difference between these two programs that simply isn’t reflected in this surprisingly low pointspread. (#323) 2* Take LSU.
Bryan LeonardFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mississippi Rebels vs. Tulane Green Wave
Play: Mississippi Rebels -20½
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Every year it happens. A well known team loses to an BCS squad and all the doomsayers come out of the woodwork. That's exactly what has happened to Mississippi. This is a team coming off back to back 9-4 seasons that had dominated Jacksonville State on the scoreboard in the first half leading 31-10 at intermission. Talk about a team on a mission this week and you find the Ole Miss Rebels. Mississippi was 3-0 ATS last year against non-conference foes covering each game by double digits.
Tulane hasn't made any progress since the signing of Bob Toledo in 2007. The Green Wave has posted a 9-27 record in his tenure including 6-13 overall at home. Tulane is on a 5-13-1 spread run in the home dog role. This team has one of the worst home field advantages in the nation. The lineup is loaded with freshmen at key positions. Two linebackers, the kicker and punter all all extremely young and untested. The offensive line lacks depth which is really a problem going against a fired up SEC squad. Tulane lost at home last year to Tulsa by 24, BYU by 51 and Houston by 28. A very similar outcome is to be expected on Saturday.
Carlo CampanellaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgia Bulldogs vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Play: South Carolina Gamecocks -3
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South Carolina opened their season with a great looking effort, beating Southern Miss 41-13 last Thursday. They'll remain home to host Georgia for their second of a three game season opening home stand. Last season this match-up was played in Georgia and turned into a 41-37 shootout in a losing performance by South Carolina. Not only does South Carolina get home field advantage this time around, but they return 8 offensive starters, including QB Garcia, who has passed for more yards than any other current SEC quarterback. South Carolina is now 4-1 ATS when facing Georgia behind Head Coach Steve Spurrier and everything points to them getting their revenge from last year's 4 point road loss.
Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Red Sox vs. Oak A`s
Take: Boston Red Sox
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John Lackey is the starter here and he's very familiar with pitching on the West Coast, coming to Boston this season after spending all those years with the Angels. He loves facing the light hitting Oakland A's, too, with a 17-4 record and a 2.86 ERA against them. He's had a good second half of the season, as well. Boston is No. 2 in runs scored in the AL, the A's are fourth worst. Play the Red Sox.
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Southern Cal -20 vs Virginia
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I might be stubborn but I just cannot see USC not covering the number here at home saturday night against this Virginia squad who will be a long way from home and I suspect eager to get back there about midway through the second half here. I look for Lane Kiffin's defensive side of the team to make the needed adjustments after their sub par effort at Hawaii and be ready to shut down this Cavalier offense. Naturally a lot of people are making noise about the Trojans struggling some to get it done at Hawaii in the season opener. Well how many quality football teams have you seen travel all the way out to play Hawaii over the years and struggle? That's correct, the answer is countless. The Trojans are playing their home opener and with all the off field publicity I have a strong suspicion this Virginia team is going to get the idea loud and clear that they are in the wrong place at the wrong time. This Virginia team surrendered a total of 333 total yards last week to the Richmond Spiders, think about that. Now they venture into a prime time night battle with the USC Trojans at the Coliseum. Granted this Southern Cal program is in a state of flux right now but they are still much more athletic and deep than Virginia. Last time these two squared off it was in Virginia and it was like clubbing baby seals as the Trojans ran the Cavaliers right out of their own stadium by a resounding 52-7 count. In this home opener I don't see Kiffin taking his foot off the gas. 20 points seem like a lot? I'm telling you it is not enough guys. Take USC to take it's fans down memory lane for a night.
Doug UpstoneFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon Ducks vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Play: Oregon Ducks -11½
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Play On favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that outscored opponents by seven or more points a game last season, with eight defensive starters returning. Since 2001 this sensational system is 22-3 ATS and advises to consider Oregon, Georgia Tech and Iowa.