Stephen Nover
Miami, Florida at Ohio State
I easily won my free college football selection last Saturday with Michigan rolling past Connecticut. I like Ohio State to cover at home against Miami for my free selection this Saturday.
There is optimism in south Florida this season about the Miami Hurricanes. But the Hurricanes are not strong enough yet to hang within this number on the road against Ohio State.
I haven't been a big fan of Randy Shannon. Yes, he can recruit. Miami still has an aurora, but the Hurricanes are just 22-17 under Shannon and have never won a bowl game and that's playing in the ACC.
The Hurricanes have never won on the road under Shannon against top flight foes during the past three years. Miami lost 31-7 last year to Virginia Tech. Two years ago, the Hurricanes fell 26-3 to Florida and the previous season were buried by Virginia Tech (44-14) and Oklahoma (51-13). That's a combined loss of 115 points.
Ohio State has covered 58 percent of the time under Jim Tressel as a home favorite. This includes a 31-14 straight-up mark versus Top 25 opponents.
Miami's major question mark is its offensive line. Ohio State has one of the best defensive front sevens. Miami may not be able to run for 50 yards, putting tremendous pressure on talented but erratic Jacory Harris.
I could easily see the Buckeyes intercepting multiple passes off Harris. The Buckeyes ranked in the top five nationally in total defense and scoring defense last year. They fortified their depth with perhaps the top recruiting class in the nation.
Perhaps the Hurricanes are improved enough to win a bowl game under Shannon, but this isn't a good setting or matchup for them.
2♦ OHIO STATE
Brett Atkins
Washington looked a little nervous and not quite ready for the scene in Provo, Utah last week, making too many mistakes to hope to beat BYU in front of its fans. Now tonight will be the opposite story as Washington is at home and will force Syracuse into several bad plays.
The Orange made plenty of mistakes against Akron last week and going back on the road for this one isn’t going to cure those errors. Syracuse is 1-11-1 in games played on the West Coast since 1964, while Washington is on a 23-2 surge in home games against teams from the East.
Huskies’ QB Jake Locker played well against BYU, throwing for 266 yards and a TD, but some bad plays left him a loser as they failed on some fourth-down action inside the BYU 30, and they had a safety after a botched punt. Locker has plenty of weapons to help him with the offense and I’m going with the Huskies in this one as they can score the ball at-will with all those weapons around Locker.
Lay the points and go with Washington.
5♦ WASHINGTON
Chuck O'Brien
Now onto today’s complimentary selection – and I’ve hit five of my last six FREE plays after the Rangers (5♦) prevailed last night – as I’ll side with Michigan over Notre Dame. One game does not a season make, obviously, but both these teams have to be feeling pretty good about things after posting double-digit season-opening home wins last Saturday. I watched the majority of both contests, and I have to say I came away much more impressed with the Wolverines – and sophomore QB Denard Robinson in particular.
Robinson shredded a UConn defense that has a reputation for being stout, connecting on 19 of 22 passes for 186 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for a game-high 197 yards (29 carries) and a score in a 30-10 victory. Robinson did a great job controlling the action (Michigan had 28 first downs and held the ball for nearly 37 minutes), and he spread the ball around effectively (eight Wolverines had a reception).
Notre Dame opened the Brian Kelly era with a 23-12 win over Purdue, but the Boilermakers are a bottom-tier Big Ten squad. And if not for two interceptions by new Purdue QB Robert Mavre (who was otherwise 31-for-40 for 220 yards), it could’ve been a very different result. As it is, Purdue held the ball for 35 minutes.
Michigan has won (and covered) three of the last four meetings, and the Wolverines are on ATS runs of 5-1 in September action and 4-0 in non-conference play. Meanwhile, even if you count Notre Dame’s win last week as a pointspread push, the Irish are still in ATS ruts of 3-8-1 overall, 8-19-1 in South Bend, 0-4-1 in September and 0-4 in Big Ten play.
4♦ MICHIGAN
Saturday’s second college football complimentary winner comes from Knoxville, Tennessee, as I’ll take the points with the Volunteers over visiting Oregon.
How can I go against the Ducks after they delivered for me last week with that 72-0 victory over New Mexico (20 Dime winner)? Two words: Pointspread value. When the Golden Nugget released the lines for its top 200 college football games of the season back in mid June, they installed Oregon as a three-point favorite in this game against Tennessee. Sharp bettors hammered Oregon immediately and the Nugget was forced to pull the game down and put up a new number: Oregon -6.
Now, because of what the Ducks did last week, that number has skyrocketed to Oregon -13! So we’re talking about a 10-point line move, even though both teams have played just one game. Crazy.
While Oregon annihilated New Mexico (it was 59-0 at halftime), I knew it was a ridiculous mismatch going in (the Lobos have one of the worst programs in college football, they always limp out of the gate and Oregon was motivated to make a statement). But Tennessee is also coming off a lopsided win, a 50-0 rout of Division I-AA Tennessee-Martin – and trust me, New Mexico isn’t any better than Tennessee-Martin.
I know the Vols program is in a state of flux after Lane Kiffin left them high and dry after one year to go back to USC, but there’s still talent on this roster. And Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, under the lights, is NOT an easy place to play. To be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oregon come in a little overconfident and get smacked in the mouth, but I’ll stop short of calling for the outright upset and just take these generous points.
3♦ TENNESSEE
Joel Tyson
You lose to North Dakota State, and you have problems. You lose to North Dakota State 6-3 and you have serious problems!
That is the fate of the Kansas Jayhawks under new coach Turner Gill, and while I don't expect the Jayhawks to look as bad as they did last weekend, I also don't epxect them to be within the impost against the speedy, option-oriented Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.
Tech is a money-making 5-2 against the spread under coach Paul Johnson when installed as the road favorite, while the home team Jayhawks are on an 0-5 spread slide the last 5 times they have been installed as the home underdog.
Yes, it is a lot of points to be laying in a college non-conference game for the road team, but Georgia Tech is firmly entrenched in Johnson's system, while Kansas has a long way to go to put the Mark Mangino era behind them and learn Turner Gill's new system.
Going to be a long season for the Jayhawks, as I expect Tech to steam roll them in this early affair on Saturday.
4♦ GEORGIA TECH
Karl Garrett
Pac 10 battle between Stanford and UCLA, and the G-Man is going to lay the road chalk with the Cardinal.
Many think Jim Harbaugh's team could wind up being right in the mix for the Pacific 10 title, and they sure looked good in their "tune up" game against Sacramento State as quarterback Andrew Luck threw 4 touchdown passes on the day en-route to a 52-17 cake walk.
Sure the sledding gets tougher against a conference foe, but UCLA got pretty roughed up in their 31-22 loss at Kansas State, as quarterback Prince is taking a little bit of time in learning the new Nevada-style "Pistol" offense that the Bruins are breaking in this year.
UCLA failed last season in both tries as the home underdog, and the G-Man suspects Stanford's new running back-by-committee approach the Tree is taking this season now that Toby Gerhart is in the NFL, is going to eventually wear down the team from Westwood.
Big step-up game for Stanford if they wish to compete for the Pac 10 title, and step-up they do.
1♦ STANFORD
Michael Cannon
Take Oregon as the big road chalk over Tennessee.
I know it’s a risk when you lay this many points on the road in SEC territory, but the Ducks are so explosive offensively that it shouldn’t matter.
Oregon racked up over 700 yards of offense in last week’s 72-0 pasting of New Mexico. And to think the Ducks did all that without star running back LaMichael James, who was serving a one-game suspension.
James will now team with fellow running back Kenjon Barner, who had 147 yards rushing and four TDs in just one half of action last week and dangerous QB Darron Thomas.
Tennessee will never be able to trade points with the Ducks. The Vols have too many question marks across the offensive line and at quarterback.
The Vols are just 2-4 ATS at home versus non-conference foes the last two years.
Lay the points with Oregon as they run away with the win and cover.
3♦ OREGON
Take Oklahoma State minus the number over Troy.
The Cowboys looked awesome in last week’s throttling of Washington State. They unveiled their new offense, a Texas Tech-style spread attack that utilizes the arm strength of 26-year-old quarterback Brandon Weeden.
But the Pokes are no one-trick pony. Running back Kendall Hunter rolled up 257 yards on the ground and had four TDs.
The Cowboys are also an athletic group on defense and should be able to separate themselves from a Troy team that had trouble getting by visiting Bowling Green last week.
Troy is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine on the road in non-conference play while Oklahoma State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 as a home chalk.
Lay the points with Oklahoma State as they roll again to the win and cover.
3♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
Great Lakes Sports
Toledo at Ohio U.
Play: Ohio U.
The Ohio U. Bobcats are a perfect 4-0 ATS when playing in their last four conference games, and the Ohio U. Bobcats are a very nice 5-1 ATS their last six games overall. The Ohio U. Bobcats is also a stellar 5-1 ATS their last six home games, and the home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four meetings in this series. We look for the Ohio U. Bobcats to dismantle the Toledo Rockets in this key MAC Conference showdown and grab the home ATS Win&Cover today.
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Miami Florida Hurricanes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Play: Miami Florida Hurricanes +8½
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5* graded play on Miami (Fla) as they visit Ohio State set to start at 3:40 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than eight points. Miami is reinforced by an 18-year system that has produced a record of 56-24 for 70% ATS winners. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first two weeks of the season after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. If you like the potential for a huge upset win by Miami then not that they are 18-3 against the money line (+16.6 Units) after allowing 3.25 or less yards per play in their previous game since 1992. Ohio State does not have the secondary to stand up consistently for the entire game against the offensive weapons on the Miami side of the ball. The Buckeyes lack the top level speed along the defensive front to create pass protection problems for the Miami offensive line. They will have to bring zone blitz pressure and this is where the game will be won or lost. Harris must make the correct reads in pressure to win this game. He has several weapons to check down too that are more than just relief valve receivers. These weapons include Leonard Hankerson, LaRon Byrd and Aldarius Johnson. If any of these players get matched up in man coverage with a linebacker it will lead to huge plays and possible scores. Take Miami (Fla).
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Alabama -12FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I believe the books are giving Penn State too much credit in this one, and not giving Alabama enough respect due to Mark Ingram being out. Sure, he's a great player, but the Tide are deep in the backfield and Trent Richardson and company or more than capable of carrying the load. With 100,000-plus fans packed in to watch Alabama, this is going to be a very hostile atmosphere for Penn State. That's a big factor considering the Nittany Lions will be starting freshman quarterback Robert Bolden, who is sure to try to do too much today which will lead to mistakes.
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Alabama is just loaded on both sides of the ball with playmakers. Where Penn State will get beat is up front, especially on defense where they are breaking in 5 new starters along the front 7 from a year ago. Alabama is 19-9 ATS in all games over the last 3 seasons. The Nittany Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Bolden will have to make too many plays for Penn State to even have a chance, and I feel that is way too much to ask out of a freshman. Roll with the Crimson Tide Saturday.
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Stanford Cardinal vs. UCLA Bruins
Play: Stanford Cardinal -6
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Stanford vaulted into the national rankings following a convincing 52-17 victory over Sacramento State in the season opener. The Cardinal is looking to improve upon last year's eight-win campaign, and last week's showing is a good start. The schedule gets fairly difficult in a hurry, as Stanford will face Wake Forest next week, followed by back-to-back road contests at Notre Dame and Oregon, then it's back home to face USC.
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Meanwhile, UCLA was upended by Kansas State last weekend, 31-22. The Bruins struggled on both sides of the ball, although they put together a late rally to nearly pull off the win. UCLA plays three of its next four games at home.
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UCLA has some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, particularly against the run. Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas gashed the Bruins for a career-high 234 yards and two touchdowns last week.
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3* on Iowa State +13.5
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Reasons Iowa State covers:
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1.) Iowa State is 7-5 in their last 12 meetings with Iowa. That doesn't sound too impressive, but considering they were an underdog in 10 of those games it really is.
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2.) The Cyclones always seem to play the Hawkeyes tough in Iowa City. That's indicated by the fact that Iowa State is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 trips to Kinnick Stadium. ISU beat Nebraska on the road last year en route to a bowl game. This team brings back a lot of talent from that team, and is primed to give Iowa a run for their money this afternoon. Bet Iowa State on the road.
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Philadelphia –1.05 over NY METS
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The first thing to note here is that the Phillies have reeled off four in a row and they’ve scored seven or more runs in all four games. Kyle Kendrick is risky and will likely give up something but this one has nothing to do with wagering on Kendrick. The wager here is based upon playing a red-hot Phillies offense against Mike Pelfrey. One of the most pleasant surprises of the first half, the wheels have completely fallen off for Pelfrey. Pelfrey's last start on Monday was awful, a complete stinker highlighted by five hits, three walks and six earned runs over 3.7 IP. That ERA (3.96) isn't half bad, but when you take a look at the xERA (4.70) and the disparity between 1H (2.93) and 2H (5.63) it’s pretty clear that we should stick a fork in Pelfrey for the year ... he's done. Pelfrey has never been particularly adept at keeping runners off bases. His 1.46 WHIP looks worse when we compare his 1H WHIP (1.29) to that of the 2H (1.72). At just five strikeouts per nine, this is not a dominant arm and that’s an understatement. The BPV (32) doesn't lie and paints the picture of mediocrity at best. When all is said and done, Mike Pelfrey will near 200 IP and 15 wins just like Clayton Kershaw, but these couldn't be two more different pitchers. Say "no" to Pelfrey, because this is a mediocre pitcher and that’s being kind. Play: Philadelphia –1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
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OHIO ST –8 over Miami
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You can never base anything on one game but after seeing what the Buckeyes did to a decent Marshall squad in week 1, one can only guess just how good this OSU squad will be. Defensively, it’s been said this is the most talented Buckeye defense in over 10 years and that’s not speculation. That statement could be very accurate. They completely pulverized the Thundering Herd in last week’s contest and while they’re taking a step up in class against the “U”, the step up is not as great as everyone thinks. The Canes #12 ranking is a aberration. By month’s end they may not even be a top-25 team. Miami QB Jacory Harris can run but his passing game leaves plenty to be desired and he’s also had a history of performing badly in big games. He throws a lot of picks, he’s very inconsistent and in this setting against this defense he might implode completely. Also note that the Buckeyes schedule after this game is against Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Illinois and Indiana while the Canes have Pitt, Clemson and Florida St on deck. In other words, this is the Buckeyes game-of-the-month while the Canes have three more coming up. Yes, eight points appears to be a big number to lay against a ranked squad but in this case, it’s not, as Miami is not as good as advertised while OSU is the real deal. Play: #338 Ohio St –8 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
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Montreal +3½ over HAMILTON
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Seldom have we seen the Als receiving points over the past few years and they’re doing so here because Anthony Cavillo is still on the rack. That leaves the QB duties to Adrian McPherson, as Chris Leak was completely ineffective last week. McPherson started six games for the Als last year and wasn’t bad at all but he’s been out all year and is coming off a torn ACL that could leave him somewhat tentative. That’s an “if” and it’s a gamble that could backfire. McPherson can run and if he wasn’t ready the Als would not turn to him, as they have both Leak and Santos available but chose to go with McPherson. Furthermore, McPherson hit on 68% of his passes in those six games and the Als will be completely jacked up after getting their asses kicked by the Lions at home a week ago. The Ticats are coming off a win over the Argos. A big win it was but don’t be fooled. The defense was shredded by a conservative Argo offense to the tune of 350 yards through the air. Hamilton was fortunate to come away with three timely picks otherwise the story would have been much different. Fact is, the Tabbies can’t run, its defense is horrible and what we have here is the better team off an embarrassing loss receiving points against a team coming off a big but very fortunate win. Play: Montreal +3½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
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B.C. LIONS –4½ over Toronto
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The Lions put it all together last week and absolutely punished the Alouettes last week 38-17. While you can’t figure the same thing to happen here, the Argos are going backwards while B.C. has momentum. Despite allowing more points than the Argos, that’s a misleading stat because the Lions defense has had to carry them for practically the whole season thus far and have been on the field longer than anyone else. Truth be told, the Argos are allowing an alarming 428 yards per game and that’s not after a couple of games. We’re 10 games into the season and you simply cannot win consistently when allowing the opposition to march down field at will. So, it appears as though the Argos caught lightning in a bottle for the first few weeks. Recently, they’ve been exposed as a poor football team and one also has to question its confidence level. The Lions offense woke up last week and could easily keep it going here. These two played in week four in Toronto when the Argos had momentum. Toronto needed a 14-1 fourth quarter rally to win by a narrow four points, 24-20. That was then and this is now. Now the Lions have Uncle Mo (momentum) on its side while the Boatmen are in the midst of an ugly slide that is unlikely to end here. Play: B.C. Lions –4½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
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Trevor Prangley +190 over Keith Jardine
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Keith "The Dean of Mean" Jardine certainly hasn't been all that intimidating lately, dropping his last four fights. His slide out of the UFC started long before that streak as he has just two wins in his last eight fights. It's been stated by many that Jardine has a glass jaw and the numbers certainly seem to back that up, with four of those six losses coming via KO. The public is all over Jardine in this contest as he is a "name" fighter and appears to be dropping way down in class from top competition in the UFC to the significantly lesser talent pool of Shark Fights. But not so fast...Trevor Prangley is certainly no slouch. With Jardine's performances of late he would have been much better off finding a spot where he would be an overwhelming favorite both on the board and on the mat. Shouldn't the fact that he is only slightly higher than a 2-1 favorite coming down from UFC set off some alarm bells? Prangley was unbeaten in six fights before he took on Tim Kennedy at Strikeforce in L.A. He has been through the wars and has a successful body of work in his own right. His career certainly doesn't appear to be on the nosedive that Jardine's is on. Jardine was knocked around and lost via majority decision in his last outing against a less than half-cocked Matt Hamill, who himself was extremely disappointed even in winning. This is basically a must win for both fighters and Jardine's form of late can't be backed under any circumstance. This fight is way closer than the line suggests and all of the value rests solely on Trevor Prangley. Play: Trevor Prangley +1.90 (Risking 2 units).
Michael Alexander
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Stanford vs. UCLA
Play: Stanford -6.5
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Last week the UCLA Bruins are coming off a dismal game in the first week of the season. In their first game their defense got worn down and allowed Kansas State's RB to game 235 yrads. Their offensive line also had problems as they failed to protect their QB and as a result he was only 9-for-26 passing.
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Standord on the other hand is coming off a good first game performance frome their QB Andrew Luck. Last week he went 17-for-23 for 316 yards and a career-high four TD's. Although the Cardinals lost their Heisman Runner-up RB Stanford had several players combine to rush for 213 yards.
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The Cardinals did a good job against UCLA last season, winning 24-16 in Palo Alto to snap a five-game losing streak in the series.
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Big mis-match with these two offenses so look for UCLA to be unable to keep up with the Cardinals. Take Stanford in this one.
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Bowling Green @ Tulsa
PICK: Tulsa -17
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The Golden Hurricane saw their defense get shredded by the Pirates in an embarrassing 51-49 loss at East Carolina on Sunday. We absolutely expect a big response now from Tulsa since they are back at home. Keep in mind, the Golden Hurricane has won the last two meetings with Bowling Green by an average score of 54 to 8. Also, Tulsa has won four straight openers and now QB GJ Kinne will be picking apart a Falcons secondary that is very inexperienced and also very beatable!
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Even though Bowling Green lost by just three points at Troy last week, note that the Trojans did outgain the Falcons by 136 yards. In other words, Bowling Green was fortunate to even stay close in that game and that tight final score is now helping to keep this line shorter than it should be in this week’s Falcons game at Tulsa. Look for the Golden Hurricane to storm right past the grounded Falcons in this one as we take advantage of the added line value given us by last week’s surprising results. Consider a small play on Tulsa minus the big points in Saturday’s NCAAF action.
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Rays @ Blue Jays
PICK: Under 9
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Yesterday's series opener was of the "wild" variety, finishing with a whopping 17 runs. This afternoon's contest figures to be lower-scoring.
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Romero is very tough and he's at his best when pitching at home and during the day. On the road, he's 6-5 with a respectable 4.22 ERA. However, at home, he's 6-3 with a superb 2.66 ERA. Opposing hitters bat .266 against him on the road but only .219 here in Canada.
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Romero's day/night stats are similar to his home/away ones. He's 7-5 with a 4.31 ERA at night. However, he's 5-3 with a stellar 2.50 ERA in 12 daytime starts. Note that in those 12 afternoon starts, Romero has given up a mere three home runs.
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Romero's lone home start vs. the Rays saw him toss eight shutout innings, en route to a 5-0 Jays victory.
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Davis doesn't have quite the numbers that Romero does but he's still been respectable. He's also seen the UNDER go 2-0 in his two career starts vs. the Jays, recording a 3.07 ERA and 0.954 WHIP.
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Excluding games that landed right on the number, the UNDER is a combined 168-134 when the Rays and Jays have played during the afternoon, the past few seasons. Consider the UNDER