Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 13

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Cleveland at Detroit
The Indians look to bounce back from last night's 7-2 loss to Detroit and come into tonight's contest with a 6-0 record in Danny Salazar's last 6 starts against AL Central opponents. Cleveland is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105)

Game 901-902: Miami at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Hand) 14.282; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.623
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-150); Over

Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Doubront) 15.443; Pittsburgh (Locke) 14.382
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+185); Under

Game 905-906: Cincinnati at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Holmberg) 13.839; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.378
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-200); Over

Game 907-908: Washington at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Fister) 14.570; NY Mets (Wheeler) 16.216
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+110); Under

Game 909-910: Colorado at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Morales) 15.324; St. Louis (Miller) 14.254
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+185); Under

Game 911-912: San Diego at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 15.619; Arizona (Anderson) 14.113
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-115); Over

Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.199; San Francisco (Hudson) 17.177
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+100); Over

Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Baltimore (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Greene) 14.929; Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.695
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-145); Under

Game 917-918: Tampa Bay at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 15.097; Toronto (Dickey) 16.523
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-140); Over

Game 919-920: Cleveland at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Salazar) 15.763; Detroit (Lobstein) 14.657
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105); Under

Game 921-922: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Darnell) 14.099; White Sox (Carroll) 13.212
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-105); Over

Game 923-924: Boston at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (De La Rosa) 14.152; Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.557
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-160); Under

Game 925-926: Houston at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Feldman) 16.300; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.217
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-210); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+180); Under

Game 927-928: Oakland at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 14.448; Seattle (Hernandez) 16.179
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-160); 6
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-160); Over

Game 929-930: Atlanta at Texas (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 14.782; Texas (Bonilla) 13.834
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-160); Under

Game 931-932: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hughes) 15.756; White Sox (Quintana) 14.414
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

CFL

Winnipeg at BC
The Lions (6-4 SU) host a Winnipeg team that is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games versus a team with a winning SU record. BC is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: BC (-6 1/2)

Game 293-294: Toronto at Calgary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 113.294; Calgary 122.978
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 9 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 295-296: Winnipeg at BC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 108.983; BC 119.164
Dunkel Line: BC by 10; 45
Vegas Line: BC by 6 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: BC (-6 1/2); Under

Harry Bondi

FRESNO STATE (+10) over Nebraska

This is the third leg of a brutal three-game stretch to open the season for the Bulldogs, who got stomped by USC and Utah in the first two weeks of the season. But Fresno State has the longest consecutive home winning streak in the nation for a reason. This is a very difficult place to play and Nebraska, who may be caught looking ahead to next week’s game against Miami-Florida, has some serious problems both on and off the field right now. The Huskers escaped an embarrassing defeat to McNeese State at home on Saturday when RB Ameer Abdullah broke a 24-24 tie with 20 seconds remaining in the game with an incredible 58-yard TD in which he broke six tackles. This was a dead-even game both on the field and on the stat sheet, which doesn’t bode well for Nebraska since McNeese State is a second-tier FCS team. Home dog!

DAVE COKIN

PENN STATE VS RUTGERS
PLAY: RUTGERS +3

It’s the first ever Big 10 home game for Rutgers, and all indications are there’s loads of excitement in Scarlet Knights country with old rival Penn State. These two teams used to battle on a very frequent basis, but haven’t met since 1995. As one would expect given the levels of these programs back in that time frame, the Nittany Lions have dominated to the tune of 22-2 all-time. I’m not so sure getting to 23-2 is going to be automatic for Penn State.

There’s already some heat between these two teams, courtesy of new Penn State head coach James Franklin. He ruffled some feathers in North Jersey with his declaration that the Nittany Lions would dominate the recruiting scene in this area. That might not seem like much to those unfamiliar with the region. But New Jersey is a very fertile high school football area and with Rutgers now residing in what remains very much a high profile conference, the Scarlet Knights are intent on keeping more of the local talent at home.

As for the matchup, I see this as a tossup. Rutgers has been a good program recently, making it to three consecutive bowls and posting three nine-win seasons over the past five campaigns. Prospects for this year’s entry weren’t especially optimistic. But given the early results in the Big 10, the consensus that Rutgers would be the Eastern Division bottom feeder are starting to look a bit premature.

The key for Rutgers is QB Gary Nova, a signal caller with plenty of talent but one who has also been prone to untimely mistakes. Nova has looked good early, and it might well be that the senior has simply put that experience to use and is now making better decisions. Nova has some talent to work with. Paul James is a solid RB, the young receivers have some skill, and Rutgers is fielding a veteran offensive line that appears very cohesive.

Penn State has a potential star in the making in sophomore QB Christian Hackenberg. He’s got NFL potential and can make all the throws. But Hackenberg’s supporting cast appears to be somewhat limited. I haven’t been impressed with the offensive line play early and right now this is a one-dimensional attack that is succeeding through the air but barely getting anything done overland. The lack of a ground game is allowing opposing defenses to focus on the passing game, and Hackenberg has been picked four times in his games.

The Nittany Lions are 2-0 but barely hung on against Central Florida and were unimpressive against Akron. Penn State is also a troubling -5 in net turnovers through the first two games. That’s a major concern, particularly with this being their first true road game.

Rutgers did not play well last week in getting past Howard. I’m giving them a mulligan for that performance, as they were off an exciting road win at Washington State and there’s little question the anticipation was for this main event matchup with the Nittany Lions. Playing an FCS entry was a true sandwich spot and the Scarlet Knights were predictably flat.

I don’t see a great deal to separate these teams on paper. Penn State is the bigger name to be sure, and it looks to me like they’re being favored more on rep than reality. I believe this game is a tossup and I like the situational advantage for Rutgers. The only shocker to me is if it becomes a runaway in either direction. The call here is for a game that goes to the wire, and I’m going to back the fired up Rutgers side to spring the mild upset. Take the available points with the Scarlet Knights.

Brad Diamond

Navy vs. Texas State
Play:Texas State +10½

Last week in these same pages we authored Navy minus over Temple, and they did not disappoint winning and covering 31-24. The Middies generated over 500 yards of offense, 487 net yards rushing. Navy showed us that Temple is susceptible to the run, but the Owls QB Walker was 29-50 for 240 yards. If Walker was more accurate the Owls could have stolen a major home win in Philadelphia. This time around the Middies go out on the road against Texas State laying doubles…HELLO! TSU comes off a 6-6 season with 12 starters, 8 on offense. The Bobcats averaged 28+ points per game, while surrendering on average 37.6 points per game…6.7 yards per play. TSU defeated Arkansas-Pine Bluff last time out 65-0 gashing for 697 net yards of offense. They had a massive 31-14 first down advantage. We note, however, UAPBs next opponent is Concordia which has just 611 students enrolled. Still, TSU last year showed they can play with FBS level talent. In fact, they defeated Southern Mississippi 22-15, Wyoming 42-21, Georgia State 24-17, South Alabama 33-31 and Idaho 37-21 last season. In 2012 the Bobcats went into Annapolis losing 21-10 to Navy, as a 13-point underdog. The Academy finished 8-5 that season. The point, feel being at home with a dangerous offense catching doubles seems like a good time to TAKE THE POINTS. This looks like a natural letdown spot for Navy who has Rutgers next week in their home opener with the Middies in REVENGE for a 21-20 loss in 2011. Also, just as important this is a REVENGE game for Texas State who lost 21-10 to Navy (Annapolis) in 2012.

Carlo Campanella

UCLA vs. Texas
Play: UCLA -7

Texas is 1-1, but has struggled this season while losing by 34 points to BYU last Saturday and their only victory coming as 21 point Favorites over an outgunned North Texas crew. Their main issue comes on offense, where they've been held to only 183 passing yards per game and a horrible 3.3 yards per rush during their first 2 games. Those low numbers are no surprise as they play under a new offensive system behind 1st year HC Charlie Strong. It's not a good time to have a "cold offense" as they host offensive powerhouse, UCLA, who's 2-0 and averaging 35 points per game and only expect to get better as they gel together. UCLA is 3-1 SU & ATS during the last four meetings in this series, and expect another win here as Texas struggled against much weaker teams and now steps up to face a solid PAC 12 squad.

Andre Ramirez

Western Michigan vs. Idaho
Play: Idaho -3

Today we are laying the money on Idaho -3 points. Idaho is being lead by freshman QB Matt Linehan, the son of NFL assistant Scott, who spends his days working with Dallas QB Tony Romo. Matt Linehan looked good last week, throwing 3 touchdowns versus La Monroe and totaled 324 yards passing. Both teams struggle with defense, but I have to give the edge to Idaho here. Lay the money on Idaho for your free Comp winner.

Harry Bondi

INDIANA (-7) over Bowling Green

Great spot for the Hoosiers here as they come in off a bye week following a ho-hum 28-10 victory over in-state rival Indiana State in their season opener. Indiana has a very difficult schedule this year with Big 10 road games against Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio State. That means Head Coach Kevin Wilson knows full well his team needs to win games like these when he has the talent and situational edge, so expect a fully focused effort. In fact, Indiana has always fared well against the MAC, winning 35 of its last 43 against it’s weaker sister conference, including a 42-10 smackdown over Bowling Green last year as a 2-point favorite when they put up 600 yards of offense. Expect similar offensive numbers here for the Hoosiers as they go up against a Bowling Green defense that has given up nearly 1,200 yards of total offense in its first two games of the season as they are trying to recover from the loss of four key defensive backs from last year.

Sam Martin

West Virginia at Maryland
Prediction: West Virginia

The only thing keeping West Virginia from being one of our premium selections is their obvious look-ahead spot to Oklahoma next week. That being said, we still believe the Mountaineers will have an easy go of it against an overmatched Maryland team that is not at all worthy of being listed as the favorite in this matchup.

Very impressed with WVU's loss but ATS cover against Alabama in their opener, and then not losing focus last week in a 54-0 shutout win against Towson. Not that Towson is a tough foe, but to hold them to 122 total yards in an obvious letdown spot shows us they will be focused on the task at hand this Saturday. Maryland has been untested thus far but takes a huge step up in class now, and we expect the better team to win and cover!

River City Sharps

Central Michigan +6.5

Central Michigan is not used to getting teams from the “Big 5” conferences to visit Kelly/Shorts Stadium, but they will get that rare opportunity Saturday as Syracuse visits Mount Pleasant. The Orange are coming off a bye week, which they needed to regroup after skating by with a 27-26 win over FCS-school Villanova in the opening weekend of the season. The Orange were really outplayed in that game and Nova actually outgained them and had 25 first downs to Syracuse’s 21. That game was also marred by an ejection of Syracuse QB Terrel Hunt, who threw a punch late in the first half of that game. CMU has opened the season 2-0 on the season, highlighted with last week’s 38-17 win at Purdue. The Chipps featured their new running back Thomas Rawls, who transferred from Michigan, who rushed for 155 yards and two touchdowns. The CMU offense is led by QB Cooper Rush, who has started the season with solid numbers and they have the look of a team that is returning 11 offensive starters from last year. Syracuse had tons of problems getting their defense off the field against Villanova and this CMU team is a major step up in class for the Orange. There are some pretty solid trends that back the home dog in this spot and the majority of our computer models actually have CMU winning this game outright. That said, we will gladly take the Chipps at home getting 6.5.

Tony Stoffo

Indiana vs. Bowling Green
Play: Indiana -8

With the loss of starting quarterback Matt Johnson to injury I look for the Falcons to struggle here big time to try and keep up with the Indiana explosive offense their will see here. Bowling Green allowed more than 700 yards to Western Kentucky in the opener, and another 418 yards to a very weak VMI team. The Hoosiers easily put up 50 in this spot today. Indiana at this number the play here.

Matt Fargo

USC vs. Boston College
Play:Boston College +17

USC comes into this game following a big road win last week at Stanford and that automatically puts it into a tough spot here. The three-point win was a big one and a fortunate one considering that the Trojans were outgained by 122 yards. Now they have to travel to the east coast in an obvious letdown situation while laying a big price. This is a very difficult scheduling spot since the Trojans head back home after this to resume PAC 12 play. Boston College played last Thursday and were defeated at home against Pittsburgh by 10 points and if for nothing else, the Eagles have had extra time to rest and prepare for this one. While hosting USC is big enough, Boston College plays Maine next week so there is no chance of any sort of lookahead. The last thing the Eagles want to do is get into a shootout with USC as they have no chance of keeping up. They will plan on playing Boston College football and that is running the ball. The Eagles are averaging 240 rushing ypg, good enough for 25th-best in the nation. USC has given up an average of 142.5 rushing ypg through its first two games and has looked vulnerable at times so the Eagles can take advantage this way which will also help shorten the game. USC is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite after allowing 10 or fewer points and going back further, it is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games. Meanwhile the Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against teams with a winning road record while going 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a double-digit loss facing an opponent coming off a straight up underdog win.

Matt Fargo's Featured Package

Jimmy Boyd

Georgia -6½

This may seem like a lot to lay on the road in a big rivalry game like this, but I think Georgia is the class of the SEC East. I look for the Bulldogs to go into South Carolina and have no problem winning by at least a touchdown.

I just haven't been impressed at all with South Carolina in their first two games. They looked awful at home in their opener and had to rally to beat East Carolina last week. Georgia on the other hand knocked off a good Clemson team by 24-points.

Georgia also has a big advantage here coming off a bye. They have had a full two weeks to prepare for the Gamecocks and they have to licking their chops offensively. I expected South Carolina's defense to take a step back with the loss of a talent like Jadeveon Clowney, but I didn't think they would be this bad. After giving up a whipping 680 yards of total offense to Texas A&M, the Gamecocks allowed another 453 yards to East Carolina. They are allowing 5 yards/rush and 7.8 yards/pass, with opposing quarterbacks completing 71.7% of their attempts.

Not only do I look for Georgia's offense to play well, but I like their chances of keeping South Carolina's offense in check. The Bulldogs allowed just 291 yards of total offense against Clemson and completely shutdown the Tigers rushing attack. Clemson had just 88 rushing yards on 43 attempts (2.0 yards/carry).

South Carolina is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play, while Georgia is 24-12 ATS in their last 36 road games after outgaining their opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous contest.

Carolina Sports

UCLA/Texas under 50.5

UCLA heads to Texas for a big non-conference game on Saturday evening. Texas looked awful last week against BYU as the offense faltered. Texas is avg only 4.4-ypp in their first two games. That is not good as they face an underrated UCLA defense. UCLA is only alowing 5.2-ypp. The Bruins are 2-0 SU to start the season but 0-2 ATS. The offense is averaging 35.0-ppg but taking a look closer they are only averaging 5.7-ypp. The elite offenses in the country are over 7.0-ypp.

Texas is playing well defensively as we figured the defense would be ahead of the offense under new HC Charlie Strong. The defense is only allowing 3.6-ypp and 24.0-ppg. This looks like a defense struggle as the Texas offense is just not that good. Look for the Longhorns to game plan to neutralize Bruin QB Brett Hundley.

UCLA is 7-0 UNDER in their last 7 road games. Texas is 6-0 UNDER in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Our computer is calling for only 44-points to be scored in this one. With the situation favoring the under for the both teams look for both defenses to rule supreme in Austin.

Jimmy Adams

Central Florida vs. Missouri
Play: Central Florida +10

Huge market overreaction in this game as Missouri is getting way too much support. Much of the market was pounding Toledo in an attempt to fade Mizzou last week. The Tigers did have a dominant performance, but one game against a mid-major certainly doesn’t warrant this kind of chalk.

UCF is coming off a bye week and the extra preparation time has helped out with some injuries. Sophomore QB Justin Holman looked good in the 2nd half against Penn St. Using a variety of high talent skill players, Holman showed that he could move the ball up and down the field. The Nittany Lions defense is better than the Tigers so we should expect a strong offensive showing from UCF.

Central Florida has consistently shown over the years that it can play with teams from the major conferences. They’ll be ready to go for this game, and I’m not sure Mizzou knows just how good this team really is. My power ratings number has the Tigers as a 5.5 point favorite. Easy play here on the underdog.