Red Dog Sports
East Carolina at Virginia Tech
Play: East Carolina +10.5
This line was +11 earlier in the week. Virginia Tech is off a nice win at Ohio State but the Buckeyes are playing with a backup QB. The Hokies open ACC play next week at home vs. Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech was able to win at ECU 15-10 last year. The Pirates are off a 33-23 loss at South Carolina and play UNC next at home.
ECU is led by QB Shane Carden and WR Justin Hardy, who had 11 catches last week. The team is well coached by Ruffin McNeill but the ECU defense still has problems. I think we see a 31-24 type of game with the home team winning by 7 points.
Tony Karpinski
Illinois vs. Washington
Play: Illinois +13
Illinois has a handful of guys to get the ball to. QB Wes Lunt spreads the ball around to several receivers, and they all have the skills to get 100+ yards. That, with the fact that Washington has a porous pass defense gives Illinois a definite chance to put pts up through the air. Illinois had a duel threat QB and I think they keep this one close. Washington has been an odd team to look at and judge, based on what we have seen this season so far, scoring crazy pts, scoring poorly, playing great D, playing horrendous D. We can see a different story based off of the stats and obviously the scores. I expect a good tight game that comes down to the 4th quarter.
Jack Jones
Iowa State +12.5
Iowa (2-0) has really had to sweat against a couple of inferior opponents thus far to remain unbeaten on the season. It beat Northern Iowa 31-23 as a 17.5-point favorite in the opener. It followed that up with a 17-13 home win over Ball State as an 18-point favorite.
Iowa State (0-2) improved quite a bit from Week 1 to Week 2. It lost 14-34 to two-time defending FCS champion North Dakota State as a 6.5-point favorite in its opener. Then, it nearly pulled off the upset as a 12-point home underdog to Kansas State, but fell by a final of 28-32.
Normally, it would be tough to recover from such a tough loss like the one the Cyclones suffered last week to Kansas State. They held a 28-13 lead over the Wildcats after scoring 28 unanswered points in the first half. However, they would allow the Wildcats to come storming back to win 32-28 in the closing minutes. It was a promising effort from the Cyclones, and they should have no problem getting motivated to face their biggest rivals this week.
Iowa State has played Iowa extremely tough in recent years. It has only lost to Iowa by more than 12 points in two of the last 10 meetings. It has even won two of the last three meetings with its only loss coming last year by a final of 27-21. There is a very good chance this one goes down to the wire as well. After all, the Cyclones are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings at Iowa.
Iowa has played two worse teams than Iowa State already and barely won. It was actually outgained by Northern Iowa 401-405 in its season-opening 31-23 victory. Then, last week, it trailed 13-3 with just 2:52 remaining in the fourth quarter against a Ball State team that is certainly down this year. It needed two touchdowns over the final three minutes to escape with a 17-13 victory. After beating those two teams by single-digits, its simply asking too much for Iowa to win by 13-plus points to beat us this week.
The Hawkeyes are 3-11 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons. Iowa is 3-12 ATS in its last 12 Saturday home games. The Hawkeyes are 0-6 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons. The Cyclones are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big Ten opponents.
Kyle Hunter
Boise State vs. Connecticut
Play: Boise State -16
The UConn Huskies lost their starting quarterback Casey Cochran to an injury. Chandler Whitmer is now the quarterback, and Whitmer has never proven to be a reliable option at QB in the past. Boise State got their offense going in a big way last week vs. a pretty good Colorado State team. At the same time, UConn was struggling to beat Stony Brook. UConn doesn't have enough weapons to keep up with this Boise State team. The line here is too short based on the West Coast team playing an early game in the East theory. It's overdone in many cases, and this Boise State team totally outclasses UConn.
Jimmy Adams
Central Florida vs. Missouri
Play: Central Florida +10
Huge market overreaction in this game as Missouri is getting way too much support. Much of the market was pounding Toledo in an attempt to fade Mizzou last week. The Tigers did have a dominant performance, but one game against a mid-major certainly doesn’t warrant this kind of chalk.
UCF is coming off a bye week and the extra preparation time has helped out with some injuries. Sophomore QB Justin Holman looked good in the 2nd half against Penn St. Using a variety of high talent skill players, Holman showed that he could move the ball up and down the field. The Nittany Lions defense is better than the Tigers so we should expect a strong offensive showing from UCF.
Central Florida has consistently shown over the years that it can play with teams from the major conferences. They’ll be ready to go for this game, and I’m not sure Mizzou knows just how good this team really is. My power ratings number has the Tigers as a 5.5 point favorite. Easy play here on the underdog.
Doug Upstone
Texas-San Antonio vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Oklahoma State -13½
Play On favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Oklahoma State, after allowing nine or more passing yards per attempt in their last game, with an some what inexperienced quarterback as starter, in the first month of the season. How this has typically played out is the defense makes alteration to improve against the pass. Then because of the size of the spread, oddsmakers are confident enough in the situation to make them a fairly good-sized favorite, demonstrating they believe can overcome a few obstacles. Teams like the Cowboys are 29-0 and 23-5-1 ATS (82.1%) the last 22 years in this exact situations.
Steve Janus
Penn State Nittany Lions -3
I like Penn State's chances of going on the road and securing a win over Rutgers. The Nittany Lions got a huge emotional boost this week when it was announce that they are immediately eligible for a bowl game.
Rutgers has opened up 2-0, but they have been less than impressive in doing so. While they beat Washington State on the road, the Cougars have looked awful in the early going and are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. The Scarlet Knights then barely squeaked by Howard 38-25 as a 38-point favorite. The most telling stat in that game was that Howard actually outgained Rutgers 427 to 397 in total yards.
I believe the key factor here is the edge that Penn State has on the defensive side of the ball. The Nittany Lions have looked strong on that side of the ball, while Rutgers hasn't looked good at all. The Scarlet Knights gave up 532 yards passing against Washington State and 269 yards rushing against Howard. Penn State is going to have a much easier time moving the ball and that should allow them to win here by more than a field goal.
Key Trends - Rutgers is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game, 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games played in the month of September and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning record.
Oliver Alonso
Iowa State vs. Iowa
Play:Iowa State +13
The Iowa State Cyclones were a lot more competitive against Kansas State than they were against North Dakota State, but they still find themselves 0-2 on the season. The Cyclones are ranked towards the bottom of every offensive category, as quarterback Sam B. Richardson is really their only playmaker. Richardson is completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 336 yards, but he’s also leading Iowa State with 90 rushing yards. Not good. Iowa State needs to find somebody else who can make plays offensively because being 101st in passing yards and 112th in rushing yards leads to nowhere fast. Defensively, Iowa State is allowing 488.5 yards a game and nearly seven yards per play. Jevohn Miller leads the Cyclones with 20 tackles and freshman Robby Garcia has 1.5 tackles for loss.
The Iowa Hawkeyes improve to 2-0 on the season after a close victory over Ball State. Quarterback Jake Rudock is the Hawkeyes heartbeat on offense, as he’s completing 68.8 percent of his passes for four touchdowns, but he’s also leading Iowa with 53 rushing yards. Like Iowa State, you’d like to see somebody else make an impact in the running game, but the lack of running success hasn’t hurt the Hawkeyes the same way as the Cyclones. Iowa is still averaging 428 yards of total offense and is picking up better than 50 percent of its third down attempts. Defensively, the Iowa Hawkeyes are allowing 312 yards a game and just under five yards per play. Jordan Lomax and Louis Trinca-Pasat lead Iowa with 18 tackles, while Drew Ott has two sacks to his name.
The Cyclones are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big Ten and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Iowa. The last three meetings between these two teams have been decided by single digits. Sure, Iowa is the better team and should win, but at the end of the day this is a rivalry. When that's the case a lot of stuff gets thrown out of the window. Give me as many points as possible.
Paul Rhodes is a great coach and Iowa will have their hands full. Expecting a close game here.
Chip Chirimbes
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -21
Tennessee has beaten-up two smaller schools in Utah State and Arkansas State by a combined 72-26 at home and now take to the road. Oklahoma has not fared well against the SEC going 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings and yet they are virtually a three-touchdown favorite here. Look for the SOONERS to dominate.
Jim Feist
Penn State vs. Rutgers
Play: Rutgers +3½
Rutgers is off to a 2-0 start, has home field and extra motivation. Rutgers is set for its inaugural Big Ten game and has a chance to exorcise some past demons against Penn State in the process. The Scarlet Knights are 0-9 all-time at home versus the Nittany Lions and would love nothing more than to break the curse in their first conference clash. Rutgers has a potent offense, 39.5 ppg with great balance, including 284.5 yards passing per contest. Penn State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf, so grab home field.
Mark Franco
Georgia vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina + 7
Georgia hasn't scored more than 20 points at Williams-Brice Stadium in 20 years, but the Bulldogs haven't always had Todd Gurley running the ball. The Heisman Trophy candidate leads the sixth-ranked Bulldogs into a key SEC East road contest against No. 23 South Carolina on Saturday. The Gamecocks have won the past two meetings at Williams-Brice and three of the past four matchups overall. The Gamecocks got star running back Mike Davis going in last week's 33-23 win over East Carolina, as he rushed for 101 yards for his eighth career 100-yard game. That balance is critical to helping quarterback Dylan Thompson settle into his starting role, which he has done nicely thus far, passing for 632 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions. The Bulldogs are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win and are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. The Gamecocks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss. This National TV game will be on CBS at 3:30pm ET and it should be a close one so take the points with South Carolina at home.
MMA OddsBreaker
Parlay of Sean Spencer to win (-185) with Ozzy Dugulubgov to win (World Series of Fighting 13) (-280) at (+109)
We love two favorites on Saturday's UFC Fight Night 51 and World Series of Fighting 13 events so we're parlaying them at plus money.
Dugulubgov should be in great shape against Keon Caldwell at World Series of Fighting due to his superior technical skill on the ground and his wrestling advantage. Caldwell simply doesn't offer much on the canvas so Ozzy should roll here.
We're going to parlay Ozzy with Sean Spencer from UFC Fight Night 51. Spencer is facing Paulo Thiago, a fighter on his last legs with the promotion. Spencer should be in a good position if he can keep this fight standing and work Thiago over with his technical striking advantage.
Joe D'Amico
UCLA vs. Texas
Pick: UCLA
UCLA is one of the most talented squads in the nation. Despite being 2-0, the Bruins were supposed to blowout both the Cavaliers and the Tigers. Now, on national TV, they must put up or shut up as Heisman hopeful, Brett Hundley faces a Texas "D" that allowed BYU to steamroll them for 679 yards and 41 points in LW's loss. The Longhorns have Tyrone Swoopes making just his second career start in place of the injured David Ash. Hundley has a 68.8% CR, 638 YP, with 3 TD's, and only 1 INT, with another 65 YR on the ground. The Bruins also have a solid running game on the legs of Paul Perkins, who has tallied 178 YR and 2 scores. The lack of experience by Swoopes and the poor ground game of Texas won't be hard to shut down for UCLA. And the way BYU lit up the Texas "D", Hundley and company will do the same. The Longhorns are 3-8-1 ATS their L12 games played on neutral sites, 1-4 ATS their L5 vs. teams with a winning record, and 1-4 ATS their L5 non-Conference games. The Bruins are 6-2 ATS their L8 games played in September, 7-3 ATS their L10 following a SU win, and 7-3 ATS their L10 non-Conference games.
Golden Retriever
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets
The favorite Doug Fister is pretty sharp with a 13-6 record and a 2.53 ERA. However, his K/9 sits at 5.37, way below average, and a 3.94 SIERA is quite pedestrian. Zack Wheeler is a better hurler in many aspects despite does't get much respect. The playoff is a long shot for New York, as they fall behind 6 1/2 games for the second wild card in the National League with 14 contests remaining on its schedule. However, having been winning 5 of last 6, they’re NOT limping to the finish line. And if they could take four more victories than defeats, the Mets will avoid 6 straight losing seasons, an encouraging sign for the rebuilding team without their ace pitched any game this year.
Bruce Marshall
Northern Illinois vs UNLV
Pick: Northern Illinois
UNLV's fickle fan base likely to begin preferring Donny & Marie at the Flamingo to a trek to Sam Boyd Stadium if Rebs have reverted to their stink-o form of Bobby Hauck's two-win editions from 2010-12, as early efforts are suggesting. Meanwhile, not sure there's much post Jordan Lynch-dropoff at NIU, as Rod Carey's new rotating QB system good enough to win at Northwestern. Note, Huskies continue to overachieve on road (13-2 vs. line last 15 as visitor!).