Don Best Consensus
Purdue vsNotre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame
Coming off a 1-11 season and now a 21-point loss to Central Michigan, the Boilermakers are reeling from a mental standpoint heading into Saturdays matchup against No. 11 Notre Dame at Lucas Oil Stadium. Purdue is a mess on offense. DeAngelo Yancey, Danny Etlings go-to receiver at the end of last season, has one catch for nine yards in two games. Meanwhile, Everett Golson is a changed quarterback since the 2012 season. Better footwork. Improved accuracy. Five touchdowns and no interceptions in the first two games, while completing 66.1 percent. The Golden Domers will have the crowd advantage despite the "neutral" site and the fast track plays to their athletic advantage. Notre Dame 1h and game are strong sides.
Rob Vinciletti
Army vs. Stanford
Play:Stanford -28
The Cardinals will look to bounce back big here today as they are off a tough home loss to USC. Now they get an Army team that they overlooked last year and won but failed to cover against. No such luck here today for the Cadets as they are in a play against system here that goes against game 2 road teams in their first road game of the season with a new coach if the won or lost their last game by less than 10. Even Worse Army is 0-15 and 1-14 ats on the road of late and 0-12 with just 2 spread wins off a win. Stanford has won and covered the last 2 at home off a loss. This one could get ugly. Lay it with Stanford.
Ari Atari
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels -1½ +100
The Angels have been taking turns for me as a free pick and a premium pick during their 9 game winning streak. Another double digit performance last night in runs and hits has these guys seeing beachballs out there.
How many times are we going to back these guys before they inevitably drop one? Well, my recommendation doesn't go higher than a 1 star free pick. I'm up 116.1 stars in this MLB season by placing the correct unit value on each game I wager on. That's a 116% return on investment.
Take the Angels in the 1.5 RL and avoid paying the juice. This is simply not a 1 run team at the moment and you can be more confident in them covering the 1.5 spread than any other team in the league.
Soccer Authority
Blackburn v Wigan
Pick: Blackburn
Blackburn host Wigan in the Championship and we believe we've found a great value bet for you this weekend!
This play is the best value pick of the Championship this weekend.
Here we have a team who flourish at home against a team who are terrible away from home!
Sounds perfect!
Blackburn won’t be promoted to the Premier League until they sort out their inconsistency problems and start winning the easy games away from home!
Up front they are lethal with the in form Gestede back to partner Jordan Rhodes
These two are arguably the best strike partnership in the league!
Wigan have managed to win back to back games but there real flaw is their away form.
They are a side who are known to travel poorly and even there fans tend not to travel to away games very often.
Blackburn look real value at +158 to win here and I really think they’ll get the job done come Saturday afternoon.
Harry Bondi
UNLV (+10.5) over Northern Illinois
This is an extremely tough spot for Northern Illinois. Not only are the Huskies coming in off an upset win over Big-10 foe Northwestern, but next week they travel to SEC land to take on Arkansas, so we have a classic "sandwich" spot. What's more, this will be QB Drew Hare's first-career road start and he'll be doing it in 100-degree heat as the kickoff to this game was switched to 4 p.m. local time. So, needless to say, this isn't a great scenario to be laying double digits, especially since UNLV Head Coach Bobby Hauck is 16-6 ATS at Sam Boyd Stadium, including a profitable 12-4 as a home dog. Huskies melt in the desert heat as UNLV hangs tough.
Kyle Hunter
Louisville/Virginia
Play: Under 48.5
The Louisville Cardinals are transitioning to a totally different offense, and it always takes a while to get things right during that period. Virginia's offense simply can't throw the football, so they rely on the run almost exclusively. Louisville's front seven is good against the run, and I see Virginia struggling to score here. At the same time, Virginia's defense showed me a lot in their loss to UCLA earlier this year. Virginia didn't let UCLA do much of anything in that game, and that is a very good Bruins offense. Louisville's offense is going to have a rough time getting going here. Look for a lot of three and outs in this game, and if teams do get in the red zone I expect plenty of settling for field goals. The under is 4-0 in Louisville's last 4 games on grass. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 following a win by 20 points or more. An 11-0 angle.
Mark Franco
Missouri – 9.5
Central Florida has been a giant killer in recent years, but the Knights will have their hands full with a prolific passing attack when they travel to face No. 22 Missouri on Saturday. The Knights are aiming for their third straight win against a ranked opponent and their seventh consecutive road win. The Tigers, who won the only previous meeting 21-16 in Orlando in 2012, are trying to start 3-0 for the seventh time in the past nine seasons. Mauk had a chance to show Missouri what he could do when pressed into action last season, but there were major questions surrounding his receiving corps entering 2014. Bud Sasser has emerged as a big-time playmaker and hauled in five catches for 121 yards and a TD against Toledo, and Darius White has caught three TD passes and averaged 21.7 yards on his seven receptions. The defense has held its own despite losing three starters to the NFL Missouri has forced a turnover in 46 consecutive games dating to 2010, the longest current streak in the NCAA. Missouri’s offense will not be stopped in this game so lay the points and get the win and cover.
Virginia + 7
Bobby Petrino’s second go-round with Louisville is going about as smoothly as his first, although the coach’s recent success has come at home thus far. The Cardinals look to run the nation’s second-longest winning streak to nine games on Saturday at Virginia in their first road game as a member of the ACC. Louisville has won six straight on the road, although its competition this weekend figures to be stiffer considering the Cavaliers pushed then-No.11 UCLA to the brink in its home opener two weeks ago. Virginia forced seven turnovers and ended a 10-game losing streak last week with a 45-13 rout of FCS foe Richmond. In addition to being tied for second in the nation with nine takeaways, the Cavaliers also are tied for second in the country in tackles for loss (20) and 10th in sacks (eight). The turnovers are part of an impressive showing by the defense, which has yielded fewer points (20) than the offense (21) after the Bruins returned a pair of interceptions and a fumble for touchdowns. Quarterback Greyson Lambert is third in the country in completion percentage (76.3), but is still competing for snaps with Matt Johns, who put some heat on the starter with two touchdown tosses during a failed comeback attempt against UCLA. This one stays close so take the home team plus the points.
Nelly
Army + over Stanford
The Cardinal struggled playing at Army early last season, falling well short of the spread in a 34-20 win that featured very modest production. After playing USC at home last week in a huge Pac-12 clash there will be less importance on this game and this is an Army team with rare experience in the first season for Jeff Monken, coming over from Georgia Southern. Army is coming off a home opener against Buffalo and this game features cross country travel and is the first of three straight road games for the Black Knights. Army last won a road game in 2010 and the road underdog numbers are not much better, going 1-10 ATS in that role the past three seasons. Still Stanford could be in a very difficult flat spot coming off its home loss last week against USC, probably ending any hopes of getting in the national playoff this season. Stanford has a bye week after this game that players could be looking forward to and this will be a much better Army team than the Knights squad that Stanford only out-gained by 69 yards last season. Value appears to be with the Knights as a huge underdog this week and Stanford is only 5-9 ATS as a home favorite the last two plus seasons.
Ross Benjamin
Illinois @ Washington
Play: Illinois +13
Washington has looked less than impressive in their 2-0 start under former Boise St. head coach Chris Peterson. They narrowly escaped with a 1-point win as a double-digit favorite in their season opener at Hawaii. Then last week they were given everything they can handle from a FCS team in a 59-52 shootout win over Eastern Washington. The same can be said for the 2-0 start for Illinois. However, they beat a better than advertised Western Kentucky team last week with a 4th quarter comeback, and that surely will provide confidence heading into this week. Furthermore, Illinois obtained a real prize catch with Oklahoma St. transfer Wes Lunt who's tossed 7 touchdown passes versus just 1 interception in the first 2-games of the season. He will be facing a Huskies defense that allowed Eastern Washington's Vernon Adams to throw 7 touchdown passes a week ago, and will be without their top corner in Marcus Peters who's serving a suspension.
Any non-conference away underdog of 14.5 or less in game 3 of the season, that's coming off back-to-back non-conference straight up wins while scoring 38-points or more in their previous game, they won that previous game by 48-points or less, and have won 15 or less of their last 22-games, has gone 29-6 ATS since 1984. The underdog also won 18 of those 35-games outright.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Air Force -11.5 Over GEORGIA STATE: The Georgia State Panthers have gone 1-1 to start the year, but they really struggled to beat a lower level FCS squad (Ab. Christian) and then least week they lost at home to a lower level FBS squad (New Mexico State). The loss to New Mexico State was really telling as the Panther just wore down in the 4th quarter. The Panthers went 0-2 last year and have just 35 lettermen, including 9 starters back from that squad, so this team is paper thin as far as depth is concerned and will continuously wear down late in games. Now they take on an Air Force squad that will just pound the ball at them all day and then when the opportunity strikes they will hit the Panthers over the top for some big passing plays. The Panthers have been solid on offense, but this is a very good Air Force defense that they will be facing here. Speaking of defense, Georgia State has none, as they have allowed 36 ppg through the first two games and to much worse competition that then will face today. Making matters worse for them is the fact that this will be the first time in school history that they will have faced a team that runs the option. This Air Force Option is tough for teams that have faced them to stop. This game will not be pretty for Georgia State as they will lose by 17+ points here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Arkansas/Texas Tech Over 65.5: Both teams have explosive offenses that are each capable of notching 35+ points each time they hit the field. The Red Raiders scored just 30 points last week vs UTEP and you can bet they are not happy about that. This is an uptempo offense should have its way with and Arkansas defense that struggled mightily on the road vs another high powered attack in Auburn. The Razorbacks have allowed 30+ ppg the last 2 years and this defense could be just as bad as those. For the Red Raiders, they have defensive issues as well, after allowing 26 points to UTEP and 35 points to an FCS Team (Central Ark) to start the year. The Razorbacks offense struggled some vs Auburn, but their defense is much better than the one they will face in this game. Arkansas did just score 73 points on 684 yards vs Nicholls State in this last game. I look for both teams to just go at each other in this one with both teams putting up at least 34 points each. KEY TRENDS: The Over is 13-2-1 when Arkansas is on the road vs a team with a winning record, while the Over is 14-5 in Texas Tech’s last 19 games overall.
Wake Forest/Utah State Under 44.5: The Wake Forest offense has been pathetic this year as they have averaged just 16.5 ppg in their two games. They have very little running game and are weak at the QB spot, plus they do play at a slow tempo on offense. With their offensive shortcomings, that is all they can do to try and keep games close. The Aggies defense hasn't played to their potential this year, but they should have their best showing to date vs this offense. The Aggie offense has also struggled this year, especially Chuckie Keeton, who doesn't look like he is fully healthy as missing half of last year from his ACL and MCL tear that he suffered. The Aggies will face a tough Wake Forest defense that has allowed just 12 ppg thus far. That is Wake's game as they are all defense and no offense and that should really keep the scoring down in this one.
BEST OF THE REST
MARSHALL -20.5 over Ohio: The Bobcats have not looked good in the early going of the season and I don’t expect that to change here vs a very good Marshall squad that has a real shot at going undefeated this year. The Bobcats look real lost on offense right now and just will not be able to keep up with the high powered attack of Marshall, who have averaged 40.9 ppg or better the last 2 years behind super QB Rakeem Cato, who is one of the best QBs in the nation. The Herd have already averaged 45 ppg in their 2 games this year and have put up 49 ppg in their last 8 home games and hitting at least 38 is key for this play as the Bobcats are just 2-18 SU & ATS in their last 20 lined games when they have allowed 38 or more points. Let’s also note that the Herd come in with triple revenge and are looking to blowout teams to possibly sway the committee some in their favor should they go undefeated this year. Marshall should win by at least 28 in this one.
NC State/South Florida Under 52: Just can't see this game coming all that close to 50 points. The Bulls offense is rather pathetic and will be missing some key starters for this one. Even with they were all that healthy I still don't feel that they would score a whole lot of points vs a weak NC State defense. The NC State offense is very good, but the Bulls have played solid defense this year and always seem to play good defense at home. The Game line in this is just 1 point and to me that indicates a low scoring game, because the Bulls just don't have enough off to get into a shootout and keep the game close. 21-20 sounds about right for this one.
Dr Bob
MISSOURI (-10) 33 UCF 21
I was impressed with Missouri last week, as I certainly did not expect such an easy win over a pretty good Toledo team. The Tigers weren’t so impressive in their opener against South Dakota State with an advantage of just 28 total yards as a 25 point favorite in a deceiving 38-18 win that was bolstered by a +3 turnover margin, but overall Missouri has played about as expected with a good offense and a solid but certainly not great defense. My ratings favor the Tigers by 12 ½ points in this game against a UCF squad that played much worse than their 24-26 loss to Penn State would indicate. The Knights gained just 246 yards at 4.8 yards per play while allowing 511 yards at 6.8 yppl to the Nittany Lions. UCF is in a transition year after a great 2013 season and they may have fallen off more than expected based on that first game. I’ll lean with Missouri.
OHIO STATE (-32) 43 Kent State 9
Ohio State entered the season overrated, which showed up last week in their loss to Virginia Tech, but the Buckeyes tend to beat up on bad teams and coach Urban Meyer has a long history of success against non-conference teams. Meyer is 40-13 ATS in his coaching career against non-conference opponents (37-9 ATS when not laying 35 points or more) and Ohio State also applies to a 21-1 ATS early season situation that plays on huge favorites after an upset loss (makes sense to me). My ratings only favor Ohio State by 29 points but I’ll lean with the Buckeyes based on the good situation and coaching trend.
VIRGINIA TECH (-10) 32 East Carolina 18
East Carolina is much better defensively than I had projected them to be with just 3 returning starters, as giving up just 5.8 yards per play to South Carolina is a better than average effort. The Pirates also look good offensively with a surprisingly effective rushing attack that has averaged 7.2 yards per run, including 6.3 yards per rushing play last week at South Carolina. Pirates’ quarterback Shane Carden is a seasoned veteran with better than average compensated numbers and compiling 453 yards at 6.8 yards per play at South Carolina is really impressive even considering that the Gamecocks’ defense is worse than average this season. ECU outplayed South Carolina in last week’s 23-33 loss while Virginia Tech’s 35-21 win at Ohio State is a bit misleading given that the Hokies were out played 4.2 yards per play to 5.0 yppl from the line of scrimmage. That still rates as a good performance on the road against a good team and my ratings favor the Hokies by 10 ½ points based on my adjusted ratings. While there isn’t any line value, the Hokies catch ECU in a negative 22-60 ATS week 3 situation and I’d prefer to lay the points in this game based on that angle.
OREGON (-43) 53 Wyoming 10
My ratings project Oregon by 43.5 and a total of 64 and using this year’s games only project a margin of 43 and 62. This really depends on how much mercy Oregon wants to show and I’m not willing to bet on that one way or the other. PASS.
MISSISSIPPI (-27½) 44 UL Lafayette 14
UL Lafayette’s 20-48 home loss to Louisiana Tech looks better now that it appears Louisiana Tech is a pretty good team, but being out played 5.3 yards per play to 7.8 yppl is still incredibly bad for a team that was expected to be the class of the Sun Belt Conference. Ole’ Miss, meanwhile, has surpassed their high expectations with easy wins over Boise State and Vanderbilt and the 35-13 win over a solid Boise team is especially impressive in that the Rebels averaged 6.8 yards per play while allowing the Broncos just 4.8 yppl. My preseason ratings favored Mississippi by 23 points but my updated ratings favor the Rebels by 30 points.
Larry Ness
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Minnesota Twins Game 1
The White Sox won three of four against the A?s, including 1-0 on Thursday behind Chris Sale's eight-inning performance. However, beating the slumping A?s these days is nothing new. Chicago now welcomes the Twins to Chicago, looking to win three in a row for the first time in nearly TWO months! Chicago (66-80) won the first three matchups in a four-game series at Minnesota in late July (24th to 26th, to be exact!), then went on to lose 26 of 39 before taking the final two of a four-game set with visiting Oakland this week. The 62-84 Twins trail the White Sox in the AL Central (reside in last place) but I believe t tonight?s pitching matchup give them a decided edge, plus Minnesota is a slight dog (bonus!).
Chicago lefty Jose Quintana comes in with a 3.38 ERA on the season but with only a 7-10 record in 29 starts. Worse still, is the fact that Chicago is 10-19 in those starts, losing $974 against the moneyline (only SIX starters own a worse mark!). A lack of run support has been a consistent theme for Quintana throughout his three-year career and remained an issue in his last outing (Saturday), when he allowed one run in six innings in 3-1 a loss at Cleveland. It marked his league-leading 39th no-decision since 2012. Quintana has received just ONE run of support in FOUR of his last six outings, going 1-3 with a 4.71 ERA over those six (White Sox are 1-5). That comes on the heels of him going 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his previous nine starts (White Sox were a modest 4-5 in those games). Quintana has made three starts vs Minnesota this year (2.00 ERA with 19 Ks over 18 innings) but has yet to factor into the decision in any of those three (White Sox have lost ALL three!).
Why should we expect a different result here? Phil Hughes has struggled this season against the White Sox, posting a 7.62 ERA while going 1-1 in three starts (Twins are 2-1). However, he?s 4-2 in 10 career starts against them (teams are 7-3), posting a 2.98 ERA . That means, he was VERY good against them prior to this year. Hughes was a HUGE flop with the Yankees but in his first season ?away from the spotlight,? he has shown fairly brightly. He enters 15-9 with a 3.55 ERA on the season with the Twins going 18-11 in his starts, giving him MLB?s 6th-best moneyline mark (plus-$1105) among starters.
Hughes comes in 5-1 with a 1.98 ERA in his last seven outings and gets the win here.
Bob Balfe
Padres -115
We cashed in with the Padres last night as their bullpen held a 1 run victory in the final few innings. Tonight the Padres have the better starter and bullpen and like I said last night struggling teams find a way to lose close games like AZ did last night. Take San Diego.
SPORTS WAGERS
East Carolina +9½ over VIRGINIA TECH
Upsets happen in sports all the time. College football teams every week of every season lose to teams that they are not supposed to lose to and that’s because you cannot take the human element out of anything. In that regard, situational betting becomes as important as figuring out which team holds a talent edge. With college kids playing in front of 80,000 people, not to mention on National TV, a big win in a big game results in their emotional levels soaring for days afterward and we’ll apply that theory to the Hokies here. Va Tech just went into Ohio State last week as a 10-point dog and beat the Buckeyes outright by two TD’s. Suggesting that was a big win is an understatement. That win shot them up into #17 in the polls and players may still be celebrating. To make this situation even more difficult is that Virginia Tech begins conference play next week with a game against the Yellow Jackets, which adds even more to their vulnerability.
Meanwhile East Carolina is a quality outfit. As a 15-point dog last week they went into South Carolina and hung with the Gamecocks throughout, eventually losing by 10. The Pirates will in no way be intimidated in this hostile setting. They’ve been there done that and it’s also worth noting that they have outstanding personnel at key positions, which includes QB Shane Carden. Carden went 32 for 46 last week for 321 yards and there is no question that he’s the superior QB over Michael Brewer in this contest. Forget the X’s and O/s however, because this has nothing to do with that. This is a situational wager that is backing a quality team in an extremely favorable spot.
VIRGINIA +6½ over Louisville
Louisville comes in ranked 21st in the nation after outscoring the opposition 97-34 in its first two games. One of those victories was against the Hurricanes (34-13) in the college football season opener on ESPN on a Monday night on Sept 1. An entire country watched that game and saw the Cardinals wipe out what was supposed to be a much improved Miami squad. As a 35-point favorite last week against Murray State, the Cardinals rolled up 66 points en route to an easy cover. When you wager on ranked teams against unranked opponents you are always going to pay a premium to do so and that applies here. Louisville is not only ranked, they are overhyped and overrated. Truth is, Louisville is not the same team they were in the last few years. Their defense is suspect and they’re offense has had it way too easy. We’re not sold on new QB Will Gardner and now he’ll make his first road start.
The Cavaliers stock has been sinking for years. Virginia’s last strong season came way back in 2007 when they won nine games. Last year the Cavs won just twice while losing their final nine games of the season. This is a team that the public has been laying off for years and now we get a great opportunity to cash in on them. Virginia has looked very sharp this year in two games. One of those occurred against then #7 ranked UCLA. The Cavs lost that game 28-20 but had it not been for three defensive TD’s by the Bruins, Virginia may have blown away that ranked opponent in its opener. The Cavs defeated Richmond last week 45-13 in a vulnerable spot (sandwiched between playing two ranked teams) and while that win went somewhat unnoticed, it’s worth pointing out that Virginia was just a -14 point choice in that game. This game has upset written all over it and so we’re going to play it that way with a 1½-units bet taking back the points and 1 unit on the money line.
TEXAS +8 -110 over UCLA
The vicious thumping suffered at the hands of the BYU Cougars has caused the Longhorns stock to drop considerably and that makes us buyers. Texas has one of the better coaches in the country in Charlie Strong and he’s not going to take a loss like the one his team suffered last week sitting down. In fact, the 41 points scored by the Cougars were the most points allowed by a Charlie Strong-coached defense in a decade and trust us when we tell you this guy will tolerate being embarrassed. Strong was the architect of a Louisville upset against Florida in the 2013 Sugar Bowl; to keep it short, Coach Strong knows how to win games as an underdog and this may translate into reality here.
The Bruins have been very unimpressive this year, despite their 2-0 start. UCLA has struggled offensively, yet they were projected to be the gold standard and paragon of efficiency. Quarterback Brett Hundley has been solid but has not lived up to the hype that was generated in the preseason, as a potential Heisman winner and touted the best quarterback in the country. UCLA’s offense was lackluster against a weaker Virginia team in Week 1 and then the following week its defense, which carried them to victory, struggled against an abysmal Memphis team. Despite their inconsistency, UCLA is a big public team that is generating a lot of interest in this game. The public is down on the ‘Horns and that’s usually the best time to step in. Expect a close one.
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the East Carolina Pirates plus the points at Virginia Tech.
Frank Beamer riding high in Blacksburg after the Hokies went into the Big Horseshoe in Columbus last weekend and knocked off Ohio State (albeit an injured Ohio State) outright as the double-digit dog.
Now the Gobblers are the double-digit favorite today at home against a veteran East Carolina team that is led by senior Shane Carden who is itching for a little atonement after throwing 3 interceptions in last year's 15-10 home loss as the +7 1/2 point dog to Tech.
The meeting prior between these schools in 2011 saw V-Tech get past CU by just a touchdown, 17-10 in another Pirates cover. East Carolina fought to the end last week at South Carolina before bowing by 10 as the +15 point dog, and they are facing a Virginia Tech team that is only 5-9-1 the past 3-plus seasons when favored at Lane Stadium.
Point worth a real look here today, as the Hokies have a little "hangover" after their huge road win, and QB Michael Brewer is not polished enough to put up the number that covers this game for Virginia Tech just yet.
Play is on East Carolina.
3* EAST CAROLINA