Brad Wilton
As much as Kentucky looks improved, Florida has been one of their conference foes that has had their number, and then some.
The Gators have won the last 27 series meetings, and they have covered the spread in each of the last 7 go-rounds with the Wildcats. Can't see those trends changing here, especially at night in the Swamp.
Florida's first game against Idaho was called due to a lightning storm, but the Gators did open last week with a 65-0 blanking of an inferior Eastern Michigan side. Sure, Kentucky is a step up in class, but the new spread attack that senior quarterback Jeff Driscoll leads looks to have a little too much firepower for the Wildcats to contend with for the 4 quarters under the lights in Gainsville.
Unless there is another electrical storm, count on Florida making it 28 in a row in this series, and 8 straight covers.
2* FLORIDA
I think Southern California showed they are for real under new coach Steve Sarkisian, as the Trojans held on for the outright win over conference-rival Stanford last week in Palo Alto. That after the Trojans whipped up on Fresno State in week one.
Not questioning whether the Trojans are better than Boston College this weekend, but I am questioning if they can cover this number in both a letdown and a long travel spot.
West coast teams making the trek east have had their issues putting the hammer down, as UCLA could not extend on the opening weekend at Virginia, while Colorado was also unable to extend last weekend at Massachusetts.
USC is just 2-9 against the spread their last 11 as a road favorite, so a measured play on Boston College as the double-digit home dog against the visiting Trojans.
1* BOSTON COLLEGE
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Oklahoma Sooners in a rout over Tennessee.
For whatever reason, the Sooners always seem to step up their game at home against opponents from major conferences. And while Tennessee might not be the biggest and best in the SEC... they're still from the SEC.
Second-year HC Butch Jones didn't come out and say the Vols would upset the 4th-ranked team in the nation, but did make several comments to make us believe he fully expects his team to compete and possibly win in Norman. Either way, it's a good test for his team... but a test I believe is too big to handle.
Neither team has played much of a schedule thus far, so it's hard to say which team has looked better in their first two games of the year, but I do know Oklahoma has been able to work really hard on a few issues that they thought might be a weakness.
Bob Stoops is a whopping 88-5 at home and that's a huge hurdle the Vols are going to have to overcome. While QB Trevor Knight still isn't where he needs to be, he has plenty of receivers who will help him get to the point he needs to be. And against this young defense, he might throw for over 300 yards for the first time this year.
I just think the Sooners are too much for the Vols today. Take Oklahoma minus the big number as your free play of the day.
3* OKLAHOMA
Chris Jordan
My free winner is on Maryland against West Virginia.
We have the renewal of a strong rivalry that has generally been dominated by the Mountaineers. But believe me, the Terps have the better defense in this one and I think they'll be able to pull away late for a double-digit win given this one is at home.
The host has won seven of the last 10 meetings, while the road team has covered five of the last eight. I'm certainly not fond of the half-point hanging on the field-goal line, and would much rather lay 2' or 3, but do think Maryland is the team to play if you invest on this game.
Though West Virginia hung with Alabama in its opener, it might be a little too overconfident after a blowout win against Towson last week. This week it goes up against the 25th-ranked defense in the nation and won't be moving the ball as well as it did last week.
5* MARYLAND
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on Idaho against Western Michigan, as I have no trouble laying the points with the Vandals in this one.
This is an improved Idaho team that catches a Western Michigan team that has played just one game - a 43-34 loss at Purdue - and now has to travel into a dangerous stadium after a bye week. I personally don't like to see teams taking Week 2 off. You spend the summer getting prepared for the season, get your campaign underway, play respectably against a Big Ten school and then cool off with a bye week?
This could spell trouble when heading across the Mississippi - the first time traveling this far since 2008, when the Broncos visited Idaho last.
Looking back a bit, Western Michigan arrives on ATS slides of 6-14 against non-conference foes, 1-4 in the month of September and 2-8 overall. Idaho, meanwhile, has covered five of six against the MAC.
1* IDAHO
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the Texas State Bobcats over the Navy Midshipmen in this non-conference clash.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with Texas State - Texas State is in after a 65-0 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff in the season-opener, and a bye week last Saturday, giving the Bobcats extra time to prepare for the Middies.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against Navy - The Midshipmen are playing with a suitcase in hand for the third straight week and I think laying a big number in this game, in this environment, could be a major trap.
In conclusion, why TEXAS STATE is my SMART PLAY in this game - This is the Middies' biggest road favorite role in seven years, and that could spell trouble against the Bobcats, who have the seventh-best defense overall, behind the likes of Florida, Baylor, TCU, Pittsburgh, Indiana and Stanford. To its credit, yes, Navy has covered five of six overall dating back to last season. However, the Bobcats are in on ATS win streaks of 4-0 against non-conference foes and 4-1 in September.
1* TEXAS STATE
Peter Brown
Indiana -7
Hoosiers are 1-0 after their opening takedown of Indiana St. two weeks ago. With a week off to work on Bowling Green, expect a good defensive effort from new DC Knorr. Add in a new quarterback in Knapke and things get easier for an improved defense. The Hoosiers running game is where they should dominate this game even on the road. RB Campbell had 247 yards and two scores in the opener and adds a perfect safety net for QB Sudfeld. The Falcons are still learning new HC Babers system while Hoosiers have now been in HC Wilson's system for three years. Hoosiers roll up the yards and the points vs Bowling Green
Penn State -3.5
Rutgers opens its Big Ten play versus a Penn State team already is 2-0 after opening in Ireland with a win over UCF and a win last week vs Akron. In Ireland, QB Hackenberg established himself as the leader of this Penn State team. He has thrown for 773 yds in his first two games breaking a Penn St. record. Add in that this week, Penn State was informed that it can accept a bowl bid and expect Franklins team to be ready to play. Rutgers does have a weapon in RB James but can't rely on their QB Nova who is always inconsistent. The Penn St. run defense has been strong so far, so expect a big effort to stop the run. Penn St. Routs Rutgers with toughness in this Big Ten battle
Dr Bob
Boise State (-16½) 35 CONNECTICUT 17
Connecticut wasn’t good offensively to begin with and the Huskies will be worse without injured starting quarterback Casey Cochran, who sustained an injury in week 1 and is out for the season. New starter Chandler Whitmer has plenty of experience, as he started all 12 games in 2012 and started the first 4 last season before being replaced. Whitmer was not so bad in 2012 (0.5 yards per pass play worse than average) but he was 1.1 yppp worse than average last season and has averaged only 4.6 yppp on 50 pass plays this season with 30 of those 50 pass plays coming against Stony Brook (averaged just 4.3 yppp in that game last week). Boise has a very, very good run defense (they’ve allowed just 63 yards at 2.5 yards per rushing play to pretty good running teams Ole’ Miss and Colorado State), so the Huskies will need Whitmer to play well against a below average Boise pass defense to keep U Conn competitive. I don’t see Whitmer being consistently good enough to get the job done here and my ratings favor Boise by 18 ½ points.
MISSOURI (-10) 33 Ucf 21
I was impressed with Missouri last week, as I certainly did not expect such an easy win over a pretty good Toledo team. The Tigers weren’t so impressive in their opener against South Dakota State with an advantage of just 28 total yards as a 25 point favorite in a deceiving 38-18 win that was bolstered by a +3 turnover margin, but overall Missouri has played about as expected with a good offense and a solid but certainly not great defense. My ratings favor the Tigers by 12 ½ points in this game against a UCF squad that played much worse than their 24-26 loss to Penn State would indicate. The Knights gained just 246 yards at 4.8 yards per play while allowing 511 yards at 6.8 yppl to the Nittany Lions. UCF is in a transition year after a great 2013 season and they may have fallen off more than expected based on that first game. I’ll lean with Missouri.
VIRGINIA TECH (-10) 32 East Carolina 18
East Carolina is much better defensively than I had projected them to be with just 3 returning starters, as giving up just 5.8 yards per play to South Carolina is a better than average effort. The Pirates also look good offensively with a surprisingly effective rushing attack that has averaged 7.2 yards per run, including 6.3 yards per rushing play last week at South Carolina. Pirates’ quarterback Shane Carden is a seasoned veteran with better than average compensated numbers and compiling 453 yards at 6.8 yards per play at South Carolina is really impressive even considering that the Gamecocks’ defense is worse than average this season. ECU outplayed South Carolina in last week’s 23-33 loss while Virginia Tech’s 35-21 win at Ohio State is a bit misleading given that the Hokies were out played 4.2 yards per play to 5.0 yppl from the line of scrimmage. That still rates as a good performance on the road against a good team and my ratings favor the Hokies by 10 ½ points based on my adjusted ratings. While there isn’t any line value, the Hokies catch ECU in a negative 22-60 ATS week 3 situation and I’d prefer to lay the points in this game based on that angle.
SOUTH FLORIDA (+1½) 26 NC State 25
It’s tough to pick this game without knowing if South Florida starting quarterback Mike White is going to play with his broken left arm. White gives the Bulls a much better chance of winning than does backup Steven Bench, whose name suggests where he belongs. Bench came off the bench early last week and completed only 14 of 36 passes and averaged just 3.9 yards per pass play in a 17-24 loss to Maryland. Bench was bad last season too, completing just 26 of 64 passes (41%) while averaging 4.6 yards per pass play, so I’m sure White will play if he’s capable of doing so. South Florida does have a good running back in Marlon Mack (348 yards at 7.6 yppl) and NC State has given up 231 rushing yards per game at 5.6 yards per rushing play to Georgia Southern and Old Dominion. Giving up 246 yards at 5.2 yprp to Georgia Southern’s option is one thing but allowing Old Dominion to run for 215 yards at 6.1 yprp is not good and USF should be able to run the ball well in this game provided they respect the pass enough to not stack the line to stop the run. My ratings favor South Florida by 1 with White and they’d favor NC State by 3 ½ if Bench is at quarterback. Either way, I’m going to lean with South Florida on the basis of a very good 124-49-1 ATS early season home underdog situation that applies to the Bulls.
Tulsa (-1) 28 Florida Atlantic 24
Florida Atlantic has been incredibly, and surprisingly, horrible in blowout losses to Nebraska and Alabama in which the Owls were outgained 173 yards to 702 yards per game (yes, 702 yards per game allowed!). I have some situations favor FAU here but I'll still lean with Tulsa since my ratings favor the Golden Hurricane by 6 points.
Dr Bob
VIRGINIA TECH (-10) 32 East Carolina 18
East Carolina is much better defensively than I had projected them to be with just 3 returning starters, as giving up just 5.8 yards per play to South Carolina is a better than average effort. The Pirates also look good offensively with a surprisingly effective rushing attack that has averaged 7.2 yards per run, including 6.3 yards per rushing play last week at South Carolina. Pirates’ quarterback Shane Carden is a seasoned veteran with better than average compensated numbers and compiling 453 yards at 6.8 yards per play at South Carolina is really impressive even considering that the Gamecocks’ defense is worse than average this season. ECU outplayed South Carolina in last week’s 23-33 loss while Virginia Tech’s 35-21 win at Ohio State is a bit misleading given that the Hokies were out played 4.2 yards per play to 5.0 yppl from the line of scrimmage. That still rates as a good performance on the road against a good team and my ratings favor the Hokies by 10 ½ points based on my adjusted ratings. While there isn’t any line value, the Hokies catch ECU in a negative 22-60 ATS week 3 situation and I’d prefer to lay the points in this game based on that angle.
Pittsburgh (-25½) 34 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 6
FIU was the worst offensive team in the nation last season, averaging just 3.6 yards per play at 9.8 points per game. That doesn’t appear to have changed given the Panthers have managed to average only 4.4 yards per play against Bethune Cookman and Wagner, two sub-par FCS teams. FIU has been 0.5 yppl better than last season but they are still 1.8 yppl worse than average offensively and Pitt’s defense, which has been very good (3.1 yppl allowed to Delaware and Boston College), will likely shut them out until the backups enter the game. When Pitt has the ball they’ll be content to simply had the ball off over 50 times as they did in each of their first two games. The rushing attack has been punishing in racking up an average of 357 yards at 6.7 yards per rushing play, including 305 yards at 6.1 yprp against a decent Boston College defense. FIU has actually played pretty well defensively so far this season, as the 3.9 yppl and 8.5 points they gave up to Bethune and Wagner actually rates pretty well even after adjusting for the weak opposing offenses (those two teams would average 4.1 yppl on the road against an average FBS team). Pitt will still be able to run the ball effectively but that running the ball 75% of the time eats up the clock and FIU doesn’t figure to score more than 7 points, which all adds up to a decent look under play here (the total is 47 points).
Strong Opinion – UNDER (52½) - CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+6 ½) 22 Syracuse 24
This Strong Opinion has nothing to do with line value and I won’t waste my time giving a detailed analysis of the match up. This game is all about the situation. Central Michigan is an experienced team with 17 or 18 returning starters (depending on if WR Titus Davis plays) and teams with that much experience are generally good bets as home underdogs early in the season. In fact, Central Michigan applies to a 110-66-4 ATS situation that plays on very experienced teams getting points at home in the first 3 games of the season. The real reason for siding with the Chippewas here is a very negative 19-74-2 ATS early season road favorite situation that applies to Syracuse. I was hoping for a better line, as my ratings favor Syracuse by 8 ½ points if Central Michigan’s start WR Titus Davis misses a 3rd straight game, but the situation is strong enough for me to favor the Chippewas to cover and I’d consider Central Michigan a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
I also think the Under (53.5) has good value here, as both teams are better defensively than they are offensively and Central Michigan is playing at a very slow tempo offensively, averaging just 57.0 plays per 30 minutes of possession. Syracuse has a faster than average tempo (72.7 plays per 30 minutes last season and 74.3 in their one game this season) but Central Michigan’s snail pace when they have the ball will make it difficult to top 50 total points averaging the 5.0 yards per play that my ratings project. Using this year’s games only and assuming each team has 30 minutes of possession would project just 131.3 points (well less than normal) and my math projects just 46 points with 137.5 projected plays (my early season model takes into account previous season pace as well as the pace in the current season). So, I’m projecting Central Michigan to play at a faster pace than they have and I still forecast this game to go well under the total. I’ll consider Under 52 points or higher a Strong Opinion.
MIAMI FLORIDA (-16½) 31 Arkansas State 14
Miami-Florida has been struggled offensively with true freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya forced to start due to an injury to Ryan Williams and the 2 game suspension of talented redshirt freshman Kevin Olsen. The Hurricanes have plenty of talent at the receiver position that has yet to bear fruit with a mostly safe game plan full of short passes that has led to just 11.5 yards per completion, which is well down from last year’s big play offense that averaged 15.3 ypc. Olsen’s suspension has been lifted but coach Al Golden says that Olsen is the 3rd string quarterback and must earn his way back up the depth chart. That’s a bad football decision given how Kaaya and backup Jake Heaps have struggled. The Hurricanes still have a good ground attack with Duke Johnson and Joseph Yearby combining for 6.6 ypr but Miami’s attack is mediocre with Kaaya at quarterback. Arkansas State has been better than expected defensively, allowing just 4.3 yards per play to Montana State and Tennessee, who would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. It’s unlikely that the Red Wolves will continue to post such good defensive numbers but my model projects a modest 408 yards at 5.7 yppl for Miami in this game.
Arkansas State’s offense has been worse than average, which was expected, and Miami has played very well defensively the first two games, holding Louisville to 4.7 yards per play and Florida A&M to 2.3 yppl. Perhaps defensive coordinator Mark D’Onofrio is finally has the ‘Canes defense playing up to their talent level of 3 years of underperforming. My ratings project just 278 yards at 3.8 yppl for Arkansas State with star back Michael Gordon out, which is a big blow given his career average of 6.6 yards per run (on 133 carries). My ratings favor Miami by 16 ½ points, which is right on the number, but it also projects just 45 total points. I’ll lean Under the 53 points.
SOUTH FLORIDA (+1½) 26 NC State 25
It’s tough to pick this game without knowing if South Florida starting quarterback Mike White is going to play with his broken left arm. White gives the Bulls a much better chance of winning than does backup Steven Bench, whose name suggests where he belongs. Bench came off the bench early last week and completed only 14 of 36 passes and averaged just 3.9 yards per pass play in a 17-24 loss to Maryland. Bench was bad last season too, completing just 26 of 64 passes (41%) while averaging 4.6 yards per pass play, so I’m sure White will play if he’s capable of doing so. South Florida does have a good running back in Marlon Mack (348 yards at 7.6 yppl) and NC State has given up 231 rushing yards per game at 5.6 yards per rushing play to Georgia Southern and Old Dominion. Giving up 246 yards at 5.2 yprp to Georgia Southern’s option is one thing but allowing Old Dominion to run for 215 yards at 6.1 yprp is not good and USF should be able to run the ball well in this game provided they respect the pass enough to not stack the line to stop the run. My ratings favor South Florida by 1 with White and they’d favor NC State by 3 ½ if Bench is at quarterback. Either way, I’m going to lean with South Florida on the basis of a very good 124-49-1 ATS early season home underdog situation that applies to the Bulls.
DUKE (-14½) 35 Kansas 21
Kansas barely beat SE Missouri State last week 34-28 while giving up 421 yards at 6.6 yards per play. That certainly wasn’t expected from a team with 17 returning starters that would have been predicted to beat SEMO by 21 points while allowing just 295 yards at 4.7 yppl based on last year’s stats. Kansas was favored by 24 points in last week’s narrow win but it makes no sense that the Jayhawks would be worse than last season. My model doesn’t overreact to one or two games and my updated ratings only favor Duke by 14 ½ points in this game, as the Blue Devils haven’t been as good as their 43-15 average score indicates. Those two wins were against horrible teams Elon and Troy and Duke only outplayed those foes by 1.0 yards per play (6.0 yppl to 5.0 yppl). So, Kansas isn’t the only team playing worse than expected and the Jayhawks have only played poorly in one game. I don’t see much value in this game now that the line has come down from an opening number of 17 points.
UTAH STATE (-15) 27 Wake Forest 10
Both of these teams are struggling offensively and playing well defensively and I see value with the under. Utah State’s offense has averaged only 5.1 yards per play against a better than average Tennessee defense and a bad Idaho State defense that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. The Wake Forest defense, meanwhile, has given up just 3.8 yppl to bad offensive teams UL Monroe and Gardner Webb, who would combine to average 4.3 yppl against an average team. I do see Utah State having pretty good success with their very good rushing attack (211 yarsd at 6.4 yards per rushing play) but Aggies’ veteran quarterback Chuckie Keeton is feeling the affects of a bad receiving corps that is much worse this season without Travis Reynolds, who averaged 11.6 yards per pass thrown to him last season while the other receivers averaged just 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Keeton, a normally very accurate passer, has completed just 31 of 65 passes (48%) and while I expect him to improve he’s still not likely to have success against a very good Demon Deacons’ pass defense.
At least Utah State will be able to run the ball with some success, which is a lot more than Wake Forest can hope for. The Demon Deacons have averaged only 3.9 yppl against two teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average offense and Utah State has a better than average defense that’s yielded just 5.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. That does not bode well for Wake Forest and I project just 230 total yards at 3.5 yppl for the Demon Deacons in this game. Overall my ratings favor Utah State by 16½ points with a total of 37 points, so I’ll lean a bit with Utah State and the Under (43.5 points) looks even better – although not quite worthy of a Best Bet.
Dr Bob
Indiana (-8) 43 BOWLING GREEN 37
Bowling Green had high hopes coming into this season and the Falcons were the favorite to win the MAC East. However, a season ending injury to star quarterback Matt Johnson makes their goals more challenging and backup quarterback James Knapke wasn’t all that impressive in his first start last week against VMI. Knapke averaged 7.6 yards per pass play, which is good, but it’s not so good when you take into account that VMI would allow 8.8 yppp on the road to an average quarterback and they gave up 8.0 yppp in week 1 to Bucknell, who would average only 4.0 yppp against an average FBS defense. Bowling Green’s offense averaged 7.4 yards per play last week but VMI would allow 7.8 yppl on the road to an average FBS offense and they gave up 9.1 yppl to Bucknell. I now rate Bowling Green as a below average offense in terms of yards per play but the Falcons will continue to run their offense at a fast pace, which will lead to pretty good yardage totals. Indiana also plays at a fast pace (although they slowed things down last week on a sloppy field against Indiana State. If Indiana goes back to playing at a fast pace then I see a lot of points being scored in this game even if Bowling Green’s offense is now worse than average. My ratings favor Indiana by 10 points but the Hoosiers apply to a negative 19-74-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation that has me leaning towards Bowling Green. I think the better play is the Over based on my projecting 81 total points if Indiana goes back to the no huddle attack that they’ve used in recent years under coach Kevin Wilson.
OHIO STATE (-32) 43 Kent State 9
Ohio State entered the season overrated, which showed up last week in their loss to Virginia Tech, but the Buckeyes tend to beat up on bad teams and coach Urban Meyer has a long history of success against non-conference teams. Meyer is 40-13 ATS in his coaching career against non-conference opponents (37-9 ATS when not laying 35 points or more) and Ohio State also applies to a 21-1 ATS early season situation that plays on huge favorites after an upset loss (makes sense to me). My ratings only favor Ohio State by 29 points but I’ll lean with the Buckeyes based on the good situation and coaching trend.
MARYLAND (-3½) 30 West Virginia 27
Maryland is playing about as expected, good defense and below average on offense, and this will be a good test for the Terrapins. West Virginia is a good offensive team that averaged 6.1 yards per play in their opener against Alabama and racked up 606 yards and 54 points last week against Towson. West Virginia’s offense moved the ball on Alabama so I suspect they’ll be able to move the ball against a good Maryland stop unit too. The deciding factor in this game is how will Maryland’s sluggish attack (5.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) perform against an improved West Virginia defense that was terrible the last two seasons but has played at a decent level so far this season. My ratings favor Maryland by 3 ½ points with a total of 56 ½ points so I don’t have an opinion on the side and I’ll lean under.
WASHINGTON (-13) 40 Illinois 22
Washington has had two very close wins over Hawaii (17-16) and Eastern Washington (59-52) to open the season and the Huskies obviously aren’t playing as well as expected. However, I think there has been an overreaction in the line, as my ratings favor Washington by 16 ½ points even after adjusting for how poorly they’ve played so far. The offense is actually as good as expected, as you can throw out that first game against Hawaii with the Huskies’ backup quarterback being forced to play because starter Cyler Miles was serving a suspension. Miles started last week and the Huskies scored 59 points on 537 yards of offense at 6.7 yards per play. The defense, however, allowed 573 yards at 7.0 yppl to Eastern Washington. That’s actually not bad considering how good the Eagles’ offense is. Eastern Washington is perhaps the best offensive team in the FCS and last season they ranked 11th in the nation in compensated yards per play (that’s including all FBS teams). All the key players are back from that offense so Washington giving up 7.0 yppl to Eastern Washington is really not that bad given that an average team would allow 7.0 yppl to the Eagles. I still rate Washington as better than average defensively.
Illinois has put up good offensive numbers with former Oklahoma State quarterback Wes Lunt at quarterback, but averaging 6.3 yards per play is not impressive at all considering their opponents, Youngstown State and Western Kentucky, would combine to allow 6.6 yppl on the road against an average offensive team. Illinois’ defense has been 0.5 yppl better than average so far but it’s tough to see that continuing to be that good given how bad they were last season (1.0 yppl worse than average). I actually rate the Illini stop unit as average. Overall, my ratings favor Washington by 16 ½ points and Illinois applies to a very negative 87-197-4 ATS road letdown situation. I actually considered making the Huskies a Best Bet here but I decided to just lean with the Huskies.
Dr Bob
MARYLAND (-3½) 30 West Virginia 27
Maryland is playing about as expected, good defense and below average on offense, and this will be a good test for the Terrapins. West Virginia is a good offensive team that averaged 6.1 yards per play in their opener against Alabama and racked up 606 yards and 54 points last week against Towson. West Virginia’s offense moved the ball on Alabama so I suspect they’ll be able to move the ball against a good Maryland stop unit too. The deciding factor in this game is how will Maryland’s sluggish attack (5.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) perform against an improved West Virginia defense that was terrible the last two seasons but has played at a decent level so far this season. My ratings favor Maryland by 3 ½ points with a total of 56 ½ points so I don’t have an opinion on the side and I’ll lean under.
Arkansas (+1) 35 TEXAS TECH 34
I expected Arkansas to be much improved and perhaps underrated heading into this season. They showed that for the first half of their opener against Auburn before getting blown out in the 2nd half of a 21-45 loss. The Razorbacks took it out on Nicholls State last week with a 73-7 win in which they had a 684 yards to 242 yards edge. Those are two very different games, one against an elite team and one against a horrible team, and this week Arkansas is facing a team in the middle. Arkansas’s offensive effort against Auburn (328 yards at 5.5 yards per play) is actually good considering how well Auburn’s defense has played against two better than average offensive teams (the Tigers held Arkansas and San Jose State to 5.0 yppl, which is about 1.0 yppl better than an average team would do against those offenses). It was the Arkansas defense that was disappointing in that game against the Tigers (allowed 595 yards at 8.0 yppl) but I still think Arkansas is at least average defensively. If not then this is going to be a long day against a good Texas Tech offense that was expected to be good heading into this season and certainly did nothing to change that viewpoint with 572 yards at 7.9 yppl in games against Central Arkansas and UTEP. Last week’s close 30-26 win at UTEP is misleading given that the Red Raiders gained 506 yards at 8.9 yppl while allowing the Miners 393 yards at 5.0 yppl. These teams are both pretty good teams with Texas Tech rating a bit better from the line of scrimmage. The problem with Tech has been their special teams, which have hurt their field position. Arkansas, meanwhile, is once again very good in special teams and that could be the difference in this game. My ratings make this game a pick with a total of 68 ½ points and I’ll lean with Arkansas to find a way to get the straight up win – although I can really see this game going either way and wouldn’t be surprised if either team won easily given the variance these teams have displayed so far.
DUKE (-14½) 35 Kansas 21
Kansas barely beat SE Missouri State last week 34-28 while giving up 421 yards at 6.6 yards per play. That certainly wasn’t expected from a team with 17 returning starters that would have been predicted to beat SEMO by 21 points while allowing just 295 yards at 4.7 yppl based on last year’s stats. Kansas was favored by 24 points in last week’s narrow win but it makes no sense that the Jayhawks would be worse than last season. My model doesn’t overreact to one or two games and my updated ratings only favor Duke by 14 ½ points in this game, as the Blue Devils haven’t been as good as their 43-15 average score indicates. Those two wins were against horrible teams Elon and Troy and Duke only outplayed those foes by 1.0 yards per play (6.0 yppl to 5.0 yppl). So, Kansas isn’t the only team playing worse than expected and the Jayhawks have only played poorly in one game. I don’t see much value in this game now that the line has come down from an opening number of 17 points.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-13½) 31 Texas San Antonio 20
Oklahoma State quarterback J.W. Walsh is out indefinitely with an injured foot and Daxx Garman will get his first start. I expect Garman to do a good job just like every other quarterback that has played in coach Mike Gundy’s system. However, UTSA has an excellent defense that had limited better than average offensive teams Houston and Arizona to just 4.8 yards per play and 16.5 points per game. The Roadrunners are challenged offensively (just 4.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) but Oklahoma State has been vulnerable defensively and my ratings only favor the Cowboys by 9 ½ points in this game. Oklahoma State is 40-13 ATS under coach Gundy when favored from 3 ½ to 24 points (although just 2-3 ATS last season) but I’ll still lean with UTSA plus the points.
Dr Bob
Pittsburgh (-25½) 34 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 6
FIU was the worst offensive team in the nation last season, averaging just 3.6 yards per play at 9.8 points per game. That doesn’t appear to have changed given the Panthers have managed to average only 4.4 yards per play against Bethune Cookman and Wagner, two sub-par FCS teams. FIU has been 0.5 yppl better than last season but they are still 1.8 yppl worse than average offensively and Pitt’s defense, which has been very good (3.1 yppl allowed to Delaware and Boston College), will likely shut them out until the backups enter the game. When Pitt has the ball they’ll be content to simply had the ball off over 50 times as they did in each of their first two games. The rushing attack has been punishing in racking up an average of 357 yards at 6.7 yards per rushing play, including 305 yards at 6.1 yprp against a decent Boston College defense. FIU has actually played pretty well defensively so far this season, as the 3.9 yppl and 8.5 points they gave up to Bethune and Wagner actually rates pretty well even after adjusting for the weak opposing offenses (those two teams would average 4.1 yppl on the road against an average FBS team). Pitt will still be able to run the ball effectively but that running the ball 75% of the time eats up the clock and FIU doesn’t figure to score more than 7 points, which all adds up to a decent look under play here (the total is 47 points).
MARSHALL (-21½) 39 Ohio 19
Marshall appears to be a bit overrated and Ohio is a bit of a mystery after one impressive game against Kent, a 17-14 upset win in which they outgained the Flashes 437 yards at 6.4 yppl to 295 yards at 4.7 yppl, and a 3-20 loss at Kentucky. I expected last week’s loss (I had a 2-Star Best Bet on Kentucky) and the Bobcats played pretty well defensively in that game. Overall the Ohio defense has allowed just 4.8 yards per play to two teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team. That’s not good enough to slow down Marshall’s very good offense but the Thundering Herd defense is nothing special and Ohio could muster up enough points to stay within 3 touchdowns. My ratings lean with Ohio plus the points.
MIDDLE TENNESEE STATE (-1½) 35 Western Kentucky 34
Middle Tennessee State opened the season with a 61-7 win over lowly Savannah State that is not worth examining given that Savannah is about 44 points worse than an average FBS team. The Blue Raiders first real game was last week’s 24-35 spread covering loss at Minnesota and they outgained the Gophers by 91 total yards (although their 5.5 yards per play average was less than Minnesota’s 6.0 yppl). Middle Tennessee looks improved on both sides of the ball but I also like Western Kentucky’s offense, which has averaged 563 yards at 6.5 yards per play against Bowling Green and Illinois’ teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack. The problem with the Hilltoppers is a defense that has given up and average of 495 yards at 6.4 yppl. Overall, my ratings favor Middle Tennessee State by 4 ½ points but the Blue Raiders apply to a negative 55-150-1 ATS situation that I certainly don’t want to buck. I’ll pass on the side and lean with the over (64 ½ points).
OKLAHOMA STATE (-13½) 31 Texas San Antonio 20
Oklahoma State quarterback J.W. Walsh is out indefinitely with an injured foot and Daxx Garman will get his first start. I expect Garman to do a good job just like every other quarterback that has played in coach Mike Gundy’s system. However, UTSA has an excellent defense that had limited better than average offensive teams Houston and Arizona to just 4.8 yards per play and 16.5 points per game. The Roadrunners are challenged offensively (just 4.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) but Oklahoma State has been vulnerable defensively and my ratings only favor the Cowboys by 9 ½ points in this game. Oklahoma State is 40-13 ATS under coach Gundy when favored from 3 ½ to 24 points (although just 2-3 ATS last season) but I’ll still lean with UTSA plus the points.
Tulsa (-1) 28 Florida Atlantic 24
Florida Atlantic has been incredibly, and surprisingly, horrible in blowout losses to Nebraska and Alabama in which the Owls were outgained 173 yards to 702 yards per game (yes, 702 yards per game allowed!). I have some situations favor FAU here but I'll still lean with Tulsa since my ratings favor the Golden Hurricane by 6 points.
Dr Bob
VANDERBILT (-16) 30 Massachusetts 16
It’s amazing how a coaching change can make such a major difference in how a team plays. Vanderbilt had only been to one bowl game in 30 years before James Franklin took over in 2011 and led the Commodores to 3 consecutive bowl games and consecutive 9 win seasons. Franklin left for the Penn State job and now Vanderbilt is among the worst teams from the 5 power conferences. Vandy would have been worse even if Franklin had stayed but I doubt they’d 17 points worse than an average FBS team, which is the level they’ve performed at the first two games. Vanderbilt has been outscored by an average of 5-39 in losses to Temple and Ole’ Miss and being favored by 16 points in this game tells you how bad UMass is. My ratings favor Vanderbilt by 14 ½ points with a total of 46 points, so I’ll lean slightly with the Minutemen plus the points.
Strong Opinion – UNDER (52½) - CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+6 ½) 22 Syracuse 24
This Strong Opinion has nothing to do with line value and I won’t waste my time giving a detailed analysis of the match up. This game is all about the situation. Central Michigan is an experienced team with 17 or 18 returning starters (depending on if WR Titus Davis plays) and teams with that much experience are generally good bets as home underdogs early in the season. In fact, Central Michigan applies to a 110-66-4 ATS situation that plays on very experienced teams getting points at home in the first 3 games of the season. The real reason for siding with the Chippewas here is a very negative 19-74-2 ATS early season road favorite situation that applies to Syracuse. I was hoping for a better line, as my ratings favor Syracuse by 8 ½ points if Central Michigan’s start WR Titus Davis misses a 3rd straight game, but the situation is strong enough for me to favor the Chippewas to cover and I’d consider Central Michigan a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
I also think the Under (53.5) has good value here, as both teams are better defensively than they are offensively and Central Michigan is playing at a very slow tempo offensively, averaging just 57.0 plays per 30 minutes of possession. Syracuse has a faster than average tempo (72.7 plays per 30 minutes last season and 74.3 in their one game this season) but Central Michigan’s snail pace when they have the ball will make it difficult to top 50 total points averaging the 5.0 yards per play that my ratings project. Using this year’s games only and assuming each team has 30 minutes of possession would project just 131.3 points (well less than normal) and my math projects just 46 points with 137.5 projected plays (my early season model takes into account previous season pace as well as the pace in the current season). So, I’m projecting Central Michigan to play at a faster pace than they have and I still forecast this game to go well under the total. I’ll consider Under 52 points or higher a Strong Opinion.
MARSHALL (-21½) 39 Ohio 19
Marshall appears to be a bit overrated and Ohio is a bit of a mystery after one impressive game against Kent, a 17-14 upset win in which they outgained the Flashes 437 yards at 6.4 yppl to 295 yards at 4.7 yppl, and a 3-20 loss at Kentucky. I expected last week’s loss (I had a 2-Star Best Bet on Kentucky) and the Bobcats played pretty well defensively in that game. Overall the Ohio defense has allowed just 4.8 yards per play to two teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team. That’s not good enough to slow down Marshall’s very good offense but the Thundering Herd defense is nothing special and Ohio could muster up enough points to stay within 3 touchdowns. My ratings lean with Ohio plus the points.
Dr Bob
Arkansas (+1) 35 TEXAS TECH 34
I expected Arkansas to be much improved and perhaps underrated heading into this season. They showed that for the first half of their opener against Auburn before getting blown out in the 2nd half of a 21-45 loss. The Razorbacks took it out on Nicholls State last week with a 73-7 win in which they had a 684 yards to 242 yards edge. Those are two very different games, one against an elite team and one against a horrible team, and this week Arkansas is facing a team in the middle. Arkansas’s offensive effort against Auburn (328 yards at 5.5 yards per play) is actually good considering how well Auburn’s defense has played against two better than average offensive teams (the Tigers held Arkansas and San Jose State to 5.0 yppl, which is about 1.0 yppl better than an average team would do against those offenses). It was the Arkansas defense that was disappointing in that game against the Tigers (allowed 595 yards at 8.0 yppl) but I still think Arkansas is at least average defensively. If not then this is going to be a long day against a good Texas Tech offense that was expected to be good heading into this season and certainly did nothing to change that viewpoint with 572 yards at 7.9 yppl in games against Central Arkansas and UTEP. Last week’s close 30-26 win at UTEP is misleading given that the Red Raiders gained 506 yards at 8.9 yppl while allowing the Miners 393 yards at 5.0 yppl. These teams are both pretty good teams with Texas Tech rating a bit better from the line of scrimmage. The problem with Tech has been their special teams, which have hurt their field position. Arkansas, meanwhile, is once again very good in special teams and that could be the difference in this game. My ratings make this game a pick with a total of 68 ½ points and I’ll lean with Arkansas to find a way to get the straight up win – although I can really see this game going either way and wouldn’t be surprised if either team won easily given the variance these teams have displayed so far.
MISSISSIPPI (-27½) 44 UL Lafayette 14
UL Lafayette’s 20-48 home loss to Louisiana Tech looks better now that it appears Louisiana Tech is a pretty good team, but being out played 5.3 yards per play to 7.8 yppl is still incredibly bad for a team that was expected to be the class of the Sun Belt Conference. Ole’ Miss, meanwhile, has surpassed their high expectations with easy wins over Boise State and Vanderbilt and the 35-13 win over a solid Boise team is especially impressive in that the Rebels averaged 6.8 yards per play while allowing the Broncos just 4.8 yppl. My preseason ratings favored Mississippi by 23 points but my updated ratings favor the Rebels by 30 points.
FLORIDA (-18) 37 Kentucky 13
Don’t overreact to Florida’s 65 points against Eastern Michigan last week, as the 655 yards at 7.6 yards per play was against an Eagles’ defense that would allow 6.9 yppl on the road to an average offensive team. Florida should be improved offensively and their defense will be among the best in the nation. Kentucky is an improved team also and I won with the Wildcats last week over Ohio. Despite the improvement my ratings favor Florida by 18 points – so the line is fair. I like Florida in this game based on a 211-117-12 ATS home momentum situation that applies to the Gators.
Bob Balfe
Indiana -7.5
Bowling Green had a top rated defense last year, but this year we see early on that is not the case and to top it off this struggling unit will be without a key linebacker and possibly a corner and both tackles in the middle of the defense. Indiana is a balanced offense and should score at will today. BG lost their leader quarterback for the season in which the offense ran through. This BG team will struggle with their timing today and really the only advantage this teams has out of all phases of the game is they are at home. This is a case of a much better team playing an injury riddled school with little confidence right now. Take Indiana.
Stephen Nover
South Carolina +7
South Carolina has not looked good in failing to cover its first two games. But Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks have a strong history against Georgia and can get right back into the SEC race with a victory. This is a pivotal game for them.
In Las Vegas, the line on this matchup was put up before the season as one of the Game of the Year type marquee matchups to bet on. South Carolina was listed as a 12-point favorite. Now that line is sliced in half. That's too much especially for a game between two SEC teams.
South Carolina's problems have come in trying to stop the pass. The Gamecocks have faced Texas A&M and East Carolina, which both use spread offenses heavy on throwing. That's not Georgia's style.
The Bulldogs feature star running back Todd Gurley. They lack marquee outside skill position players. South Carolina has held Gurley in check the past two years holding him to a combined average of 85.5 yards on 21.5 carries.
South Carolina has covered six of the past seven meetings against Georgia. The Gamecocks also have covered the last two times they've hosted the Bulldogs. Last year, Georgia covered only one of its seven road games.
Spurrier has an outstanding track record as a 'dog covering 13 of the past 20 times.