LT Profits
Dodgers vs. Giants
Pick: Under 6.5
It should be an intense matchup between two bitter rivals fighting for the NL West title when Zack Greinke and the Los Angeles Dodgers visit Tim Hudson and the San Francisco Giants. Greinke would be an ace on any staff that did not have Clayton Kershaw, as he is 14-8 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a fantastic ratio of 186 strikeouts vs. 41 walks in 178.1 innings. He is 3-0 in three 2014 starts vs. the Giants with a 1.80 ERA and 26 strikeouts vs. four walks in 20 innings, including seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts the last time he faced them. Hudson has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts, lowering his ERA to 3.12. He allowed two runs in six innings his only start vs. the Dodgers this year. The ‘under’ is 8-3-1 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings in San Francisco.
Nick Parsons
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Play: Washington Nationals -132
Washington had their eleven game road winning streak at Citi Field snapped last night, losing 4-3.
I am playing on the nationals to start a new streak tonight when they send Doug Fister to the mound to ace the Mets. Washington lost for just the third time in 19 matchups with the Mets.
I am going with Fister, who is thirteen and six on the year with a 2.53 ERA. More importantly for today is that Fister is 4-0 in four career starts against the Mets. Last month he went 2-0 giving up one unearned run in14 and 1/3 innings. He has a career 0.44 ERA against the Mets, on the road he is 2-0 with a 0.68 ERA
The Mets will be going with Zack Wheeler in hopes of winning two straight. Wheeler is 10 ten and nine with a 3.38 but since the end of June he has been an amazing 7-1 with a2.21 ERA coming in thirteen starts. In his last start against the nationals he gave up just one run in 6 and 2/3 innings. Before that Wheeler was 1-4 with a 4.74 ERA in 5 starts.
Wheeler has pitched the most innings so far in his career and he could be wearing down. I like the matchup with Fister on the mound and the dominance the nationals have shown over the Mets.
Ben Burns
Oakland vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
Thanks to the A's being mired in such a bad slump, I'd say this is a real sweet deal on Felix Hernandez at home. The Mariners beat the A's last night 4-2 to pull within one-half game in a Wild Card race that has four teams currently separated by that margin. Hernandez and Seattle are a steal here.
At 14-5 personally with a 20-10 TSR, its "just another" Cy Young-caliber season from Hernandez. He has a 2.12 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. While he tossed six scoreless innings the last time we saw him, Monday vs. Houston, he may have been even better when he faced Oakland on September 3rd. There he went eight innings and held the A's to just one run and three hits.
Hernandez is 4-0 vs. Oakland this season in five starts with a 2.15 ERA. The team also won the game where he didn't factor into the decision making them 5-0 vs. their division rival when Hernandez starts. Three times he's gone at least eight innings while at the same time allowing two earned runs or less. He is 6-1 (7-1 TSR) his last eight starts vs. Oakland overall with a 1.85 ERA.
The A's have lost 12 of their last 15 games as they have fallen on some very hard times. They are just 15-26 their last 41 games overall. Having scored three runs total the last three games doesn't bode well for facing Hernandez.
Sonny Gray has a 5.21 ERA his last three starts. It just seems as if the A's are in a hole they can't climb out of.
Kyle Hunter
UCLA at Texas
Play: UCLA -7
The UCLA Bruins and Texas Longhorns have both been disappointing so far this year. UCLA has found ways to win both of their games, but it hasn't been pretty. Texas lost their last game 41-7 in Austin against BYU. UCLA has a much higher upside than Texas, and I believe their issues are fixable. Brett Hundley is one of the best playmakers in the country, and he gives UCLA a huge advantage at the QB spot. Texas' offense is in real trouble with a terrible offensive front as well as an inexperienced quarterback. It's a really bad combination to have. The Longhorns make far too many mistakes, and I think UCLA will use the big stage to show they are for real.
Triple Threat Sports
Air Force (-) over Georgia State
GSU is off its first ever conference game in D1, and they lost that in a heartbreaker to New Mexico State. GSU just does not stop the run well, and they are playing a team that of course can run the ball extremely well. GSU averages 270 lbs along the front line and last year they lost by 28 at home to the best run team they faced all of last season. Falcons come in off a loss but they outgained Wyoming by almost 50 yards in that game. Overall, from a style and situation outlook, Air Force has a lot going for them, and we will lay the points in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota (GM 1) -110 over CHICAGO
The White Sox have scored two runs or less in six of their last seven games and one run or less four times in those seven games. They’ll now face Phil Hughes and that’s not an easy assignment. Hughes has a 3.5 ERA due to an unlucky 35% hit rate. It's a mark that just makes him an even more attractive buy-low target. His skills by month from April to August have been electric. Hughes also is showing signs of squashing the gopheritis risk that plagued him early in his career. His groundball rate over the past three months: 31%, 34%, 44%. His four-seam fastball velocity has increased in each month too. Hughes has pitched 7 innings or more in six straight starts. He has not walked a single batter over his last 37 innings and has walked just one batter over his last 44 innings. Over his last six starts covering 37 frames, Hughes has a BB/K split of 0/31 to go along with s skills supported 2.91 ERA. Phil Hughes has been one of the most consistently strong pitchers the entire year but that is not reflected in this price.
Meanwhile, Jose Quintana is trending the opposite way. The South Side has lost six of Quintana’s last seven starts and he has an xERA over that span of 4.99. All the signs of fatigue are present. Quintana’s groundball rate over his last six starts is 38%, down from his season rate of 44%. His swinging strike rate has also dipped to 9% to 7% over that same span. He’s also getting whacked the second and third times through the order with an oppBA of .347 over his last 10 starts. The Twinkies have lost six of their last seven games but it’s worth noting that they played two hot teams in Cleveland and the Angels. They still managed to score four runs or more in six of those eight games but their pitching didn’t hold up. It figures to hold up here with Hughes on the found facing a team that is seeing marbles.
ST. LOUIS -1½ +111 over Colorado
The Cardinals returned home last night after being swept in Cincinnati and promptly put away the Rockies in the opener of this series, 5-1. That was against Colorado’s best starter and now they’ll face Colorado’s worst starter. Franklin Morales has been one of baseball's least reliable starters with a minimum of 20 games started with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP, not to mention 61 walks 135 frames. Morales has been moved around from the pen to the rotation all season and has just eight quality starts 21 attempts. Morales has a winning record (2-1) only when Colorado scores six or more runs, and in three such starts his ERA is 8.80. The Rockies chances of scoring six or more today are about the same as Adrian Peterson’s chances of playing on Sunday.
Colorado has scored one run over its last three games and three runs over its last four games, all on the road. When this team leaves Denver, they turn into pumpkins and it’s also worth noting that they are still without a couple of their best hitters. Shelby Miller has turned in on of late, though it's been a disappointing sophomore season on the whole following his rookie breakout. Miller turned in consecutive seven inning scoreless performances against the Pirates and Padres and has been much better since the All Star break (4.29 ERA before, 2.97 after). Miller has an ERA of 2.45 and a WHIP of 0.97 over his last five start and assignments do not get much easier than this one. Consistency will need to precede stardom but Miller is on the verge.
Pass CFL
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
UCLA/Texas Under 50.5: The UCLA defense has been a sore spot for them, but it won't take much for them to keep this very depleted Texas offense in check. The Longhorns are a mess offensively and will not run an uptempo which should keep the UCLA offense from getting as many possessions as they do. No when the Bruins have the ball I see them struggling in this one as their OL is still very weak and they are taking on a very strong Texas defense that will need to use that defense this year if they hope to win games this year. Texas will look to grind it out and play conservative, while relying on their defense and that should clearly keep this game at most in the in the lower 40's, while I do expect it to played in the 30's at best.
Vegas Butcher
Washington Nationals -140
The Nats are now 7-1 in NY this season, though they were a tad unlucky not to win yesterday. They had 11 hits and 4 walks, so a total of 15 base runners while NY had a little more than half of that with 8. Washington left 11 on base while Mets left 5. Werth didn’t play yesterday due to a flu so hopefully he rejoins the lineup today. NY used their three key relievers yesterday (Torres, Familia, Mejia), so now each has pitched 3 times in the last 4 days, and 4 times in the last 6. Washington’s BP is fully rested so in the last third of this game, Nats should have a strong advantage. Wheeler has been very good overall this season, but against the Nats he has a 4.3 ERA with 21 hits and 8 BB’s in 18.2 innings of work. Washington is familiar with him having seen him 3 times already and I expect this offense to convert a few more of their chances into runs tonight.
Line Catchers
UCLA - 7
UCLA is one of the most talented squads in the country and they come into todays game with the Longhorns with a 2-0 record. The Bruins were supposed to blowout both the Cavaliers and the Tigers but both games were very close down the stretch.
Brett Hundley will be opposed by a Texas defense that allowed a staggering 679 yards and 41 points to BYU last week. Hundley has a 69% CR, 638 YP, with 3 TD’s, and only 1 INT, with another 65 yards on the ground. The Bruins also have a solid running game on the legs of Paul Perkins, who has tallied 178 YR and 2 TD’s.
The Longhorns have Tyrone Swoopes making just his second career start in place of the injured David Ash. The lack of experience by Swoopes and the poor ground game of Texas won’t be hard to shut down for UCLA.
UCLA is 3-1 SU & ATS during the last four meetings in this series, and expect another win here as Texas struggled against much weaker teams and now steps up to face a solid PAC 12 squad.