Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 14

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Kansas City at Detroit
The Royals look to build on their 4-1 record in Ervin Santana's last 5 starts against a team with a winning record. Kansas City is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+135)

Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Milwaukee (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.774; Milwaukee (Hellweg) 15.830
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+160); Over

Game 903-904: Miami at NY Mets (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 14.645; NY Mets (Matsuzaka) 13.801
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Miami (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-115); Under

Game 905-906: Miami at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Turner) 14.374; NY Mets (Torres) 13.462
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+115); Over

Game 907-908: Philadelphia at Washington (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.672; Washington (Gonzalez) 16.931
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Under

Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Baker) 14.993; Pittsburgh (Cole) 14.660
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+165); Under

Game 911-912: San Diego at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Erlin) 14.720; Atlanta (Medlen) 16.277
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-190); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-190); Over

Game 913-914: Colorado at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Oswalt) 13.804; Arizona (Miley) 15.285
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-180); Under

Game 915-916: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.779; LA Dodgers (Nolasco) 14.817
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+145); Over

Game 917-918: Baltimore at Toronto (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 14.797; Toronto (Rogers) 15.850
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+135); Over

Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Boston (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.432; Boston (Lester) 17.062
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-165); Under

Game 921-922: Oakland at Texas (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Colon) 14.518; Texas (Darvish) 16.199
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-160); Under

Game 923-924: Kansas City at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Santana) 15.522; Detroit (Fister) 14.588
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+135); Over

Game 925-926: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jimenez) 15.675; White Sox (Rienzo) 14.173
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-155); Over

Game 927-928: LA Angels at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.772; Houston (Oberholtzer) 16.662
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+140); Under

Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 15.376; Minnesota (Albers) 13.934
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Under

Game 931-932: Seattle at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Paxton) 15.361; St. Louis (Wacha) 14.808
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-240); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+200); Over

CFL

Toronto at Saskatchewan
The Roughriders look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 games in September. Saskatchewan is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-8)

Game 293-294: Winnipeg at Edmonton (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 107.448; Edmonton 109.952
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 2 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 4 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+4 1/2); Over

Game 295-296: Toronto at Saskatchewan (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 109.193; Saskatchewan 120.227
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 11; 59
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 8; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-8); Over

WNBA

Tulsa at Seattle
The Shock look to take advantage of a Seattle team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against Western Conference opponents. Tulsa is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+4 1/2)

Game 651-652: Chicago at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 114.967; Minnesota 125.125
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 10; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 8; 160
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-8); Under

Game 653-654: Tulsa at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 112.237; Seattle 112.670
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 4 1/2; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+4 1/2); Over

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Washington Huskies at IllinoisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Washington HuskiesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will win this game by 10 or more points. The Simulator is the dominant reason I make any play, but I put in endless hours research plays to make certain the fundamentals and game conditions support the SIM grading. One way to look at my plays is that we are on a team where even if things don't go our way by way of penalties, turnovers, or execution, we still have a solid chance to cover ATS. I also like graded plays that have a ton of experience coming back from the previous season. Washington returns 10 starters on offense including their quarterback and 8 on defense. Illinois has returned just 4 starters on defense and this matchup favors Washington in a very big way. At any level of football, the chemistry of the offensive line is the foundation for solid offensive execution leading to scoring points. Moreover, Illinois will have a very tough time getting pressure on the QB and they are suspect in the secondary. SIM shows that Washington will score 28 or more points. This is a pivotal number in CFB when dealing with ATS records. In past games, Washington is 11-3 ATS the past three seasons and 74-36 ATS since 1992, when they have scored 28 or more points. Illinois, by contrast, is just 1-11 ATS the past three seasons and 20-81 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. This is just a sample report of the comprehensive research I provide for my TOP RATED Titans so be sure to join me each week and stay the course. You'll be glad you did!

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Mississippi St. at AuburnFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Mississippi St. +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both of these teams cruised last week against inferior foes and now it’s time to get into SEC play. Auburn HC Malzahn has the Tigers off to a very nice start, especially offensively. The Tigers are averaging 34.5 points in their two wins while only surrendering 16.5ppg. MSU QB Tyler Russell, who was knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion, is expected to start for the Bulldogs against a less than formidable secondary. The Tigers offense is led by QB Nick Marshall, who was efficient going 10-17, 147 yds and two scores. This should be a pretty good defensive battle and Bulldog HC Dan Mullen knows this is important for their postseason chances, even this early in the season. We thing that Miss State is going to hang very close, might even sneak out of Jordan hare with a victory.

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Georgia Tech / Duke Over 56FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This number is resting on the Key Number of 56 and that is slightly up from the open of 55.5. There are a number of factors that lend itself to a higher than average scoring game here and while as always I am not willing to share them all, we can talk about a few reasons why my number is higher than what is posted. These teams have a history of playing each other of course but they have not developed any kind of significant rivalry, at least not on the football field. That's good for us in this contest and so is the fact that Duke is opening the season with a lean defense that is experiencing some early injuries despite returning 8 starters. Two things that we should not be fooled by in the Duke/Memphis game. Memphis, as poor a football team as they are, does play solid Defense and part of the reason why the Blue Devils managed just 28 points. They did put a lot of numbers up though with near 500 Yards of offense. The other of course is that Memphis has serious scoring issues and we need not think that Duke is ready to stop a squad like GT this week especially with the Triple Option attack having 2 weeks to prepare. Duke does score a lot of points when they play here at home and this series has seen a lot of scoring. This is the lowest posted number since the 2008 season and mostly due in part to Starting QB Boone being out with a Broken Collarbone. But Junior QB Connette is very capable and proved that in the 2nd half last week. Sometimes injuries actually help us achieve our number and at 56 this is a go. We have 61.2 here..

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NOTRE DAME (-20.5) over PurdueFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We look for the Fighting Irish to bounce back big against a Purdue team that can't score or stop anybody. Boilermakers had 1 offensive touchdown versus Cincinnati in week one and one versus Indiana State last week!! Purdue D a sieve allowing 33.8 points per game in their last 12 games so the big spread is not an issue. Look for the Irish D to pitch a shutout and for "Tommy Turnover" to get back on track. Take the Irish on Saturday.

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UCLA vs. NebraskaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UCLA +4½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These two teams met last season in California, with UCLA upsetting Nebraska, 36-30. Fully expect UCLA to put up big offensive numbers again this year now that HC Him Mora's and returning Soph QB Hundley start their second season together. Nebraska allowed Wyoming to put up 602 offensive yards in the season opener, but looked much improved last weekend when holding Southern Miss to only 284 total yards. But, UCLA is a MUCH better team than Wyoming or Southern Miss and looked great two weeks ago when defeating Nevada, 58-20, while putting up almost 650 total yards- Over 300 rushing and passing (345 rushing & 302 passing yards)! With Nebraska a money burning 6-9 ATS seeking revenge behind HC Pellini, the difference here might be UCLA's week off, giving them 2 weeks to prepare for a team they scored 36 points on last year.

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Florida Atlantic vs. South FloridaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Florida AtlanticFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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South Florida is coming off a loss at Michigan St. to drop to 0-2 on the season. The defense allowed just 21 points so while that looks like a solid effort from the stop unit, the Spartans offense is in shambles so all of the credit cannot be given to the Bulls for that one. All we have to do is look at the previous game and see that they were annihilated against McNeese St. out of the FCS by a score of 53-21. After South Florida jumped ahead 7-0, the Cowboys scored 40 unanswered points to chalk up one of the most embarrassing losses in school history. Making matters worse, Bulls starting linebacker Reshard Cliett likely will miss Saturday's game against Florida Atlantic after injuring his shoulder in the fourth quarter at Michigan St. Going back to last season, the Bulls are just 1-11 over their last 12 games and going back to the beginning of the 2011 season when they started 4-0, they are 4-18 over their last 22 game so this team has taken a rapid descent from when it used to be a solid program. Yet South Florida comes in as a double-digit favorite. Florida Atlantic is off to a similar 0-2 start as it dropped its opener against Miami (Fla.) 34-6 and then lost last Thursday at East Carolina 31-13. While neither game was close, the Owls can at least hang their hats on the fact those are two very tough teams they lost against. Even though they hit the road for the third straight game, this is the most winnable one of the bunch. There is not much expected of Florida Atlantic this season in its first season in C-USA but head coach Carl Pelini does have the Owls going in the right direction. They have 15 starters back from last season and while the quarterback situation remains a work in progress, this being the third game could see some production. Instead of having Quez Johnson and Greg Hankerson rotate every possession, Pelini said he might let one player have the first half with the other getting the second half which makes more sense as they will each be able to find a comfort zone quicker. The Owls went down by 18 points at East Carolina nine days ago but Florida Atlantic hung in statistically with the Pirates, the team most picked to finish first or second in C-USA's East Division, gaining 282 yards to East Carolina's 312. The Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a road loss and are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games. Meanwhile, South Florida is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a favorite while going 0-6 ATS in its last six games after scoring 14 or fewer points in its last game.

Sean Higgs

Louisville -13½

The Louisville Cardinals come into Lexington ranked #7 in the nation. Cardinals have not been challenged yet this year posting wins of 49-7 over Ohio in week 1 and 44-7 last week over Eastern Kentucky. Teddy Bridgewater is a candidate for the Heisman Trophy this year and with nearly 77% of his passes being completed (9TDs 1Int) he appears to be in the conversation. What I really like about this junior QB is his maturity. You hear about guys needing to ‘mature’ and ‘show leadership’ from their coaches. After his 397 yards, 4TD no interception day, all Teddy Football said was that he was just ‘average’ and “We’re chasing perfection,” “And today wasn’t near perfection.” That kind of talk inspires others around oneself. Offensive coordinator Shawn Watson said ‘“No way should we be satisfied, we didn’t play very well today, we did not play well at all,” said Watson, who later added, “I was embarrassed.” This was after rolling up 475 yards of total offense and putting 44 points on the board. I can’t see the Cardinals changing things up this week just to get the rushing attack off the ground. UL scored more than forty points only twice last year, and has tied that mark in their first two games. Head coach Charlie Strong has already acknowledged the fact that his Cardinals have not been challenged yet this year, and even with victories the last 2 years over Kentucky, this will be a major test.

The Kentucky Wildcats bring in new head coach Mark Stoops and his ‘Air Raid’ offense. With a new up-temp offense in place, the Wildcats dismissed Miami Ohio last Saturday 41-7. That was on the heels on them losing opening day to Western Kentucky. Obviously, just because you play in the SEC doesn’t mean you can’t show up and still get wins. I am not a fan of dual QBs, and don’t think you can win with them. The fact is this team just blew out a terrible Miami Ohio team who the week before got abused by Marshall 52-14. Add in that they were off a terrible loss and I am pretty sure that if they wanted to keep their SEC Scholarships, then anything less than a 30+ point blow-out win would have unacceptable!

My Final Thoughts

Louisville has the superior talent without question. The question everyone has is are they for real. A real National Championship contender would do what it take to do here, which is pretty much name their own score. Yes Kentucky is an in-state rival getting double digits. But the Cardinals are talking the right kind of talk. They are taking one game at a time and focusing on each opponent, and looking to improve along the way. I

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Southern Miss / Arkansas Over 49.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If the first two games are any indication, Southern Miss is going to have a long season. The Eagles allowed 56 points last week to Nebraska and have woefully begun their season 0-2. USM have gone over the posted total in nine of their last 10 road games, and considering the home Razorbacks are heavy chalk here, I see this one being a blowout as well. And just the same, Arkansas has gone over in 12 of its last 14 home games vs. losing road teams. Pig Suey has scored 30+ in each of its two ball games so far on the year, and from my perspective this total number is a bit low. I see another 30-point performance by the home Razorbacks in this one, and Southern Miss should do well to at least make up the difference. Play the over between these two.

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Memphis (+7) over Middle TennesseeFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The public is all over Middle Tennessee State in this game. Around 70 percent of all the bets in this game are coming down on the home favorite. But MTSU is not the type of team to be favored. And not by a touchdown! This game doesn't mean anything to college football fans. But it is a rivalry for the kids at these schools since they are both in state. Middle Tennessee won in a blowout last year, 48-30. But that game should've been much closer as Memphis shot itself in the foot. That also gives Memphis a revenge motivation. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in this series. MTSU is 0-4 ATS in its last four games, and they are coming off a very physical game at North Carolina that they lost by 20 points. I will take the points in this game, and I think that this improved Memphis team is capable of the upset.

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Cal Poly-SLO at Colorado St.FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Cal Poly-SLO +9.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mustangs are a solid FCS playoff team from last season and will move the ball and score points against the Rams' defense. Poly put 25 points on the board last week against Fresno State, while gaining over 400 yards of offense. The Rams are hurting, allowing 71 points in their first two games against Colorado & Tulsa, coming up short in their game against their in-state rivals and a late game loss last weekend in Tulsa. I expect the team to be off kilter emotionally and I expect them to be shocked by the efficiency of the Cal Poly attack. I'm recommending a play on Cal Poly plus the points.

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Alabama vs. Texas A&MFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: AlabamaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Alabama has won 13 consecutive games away from home and 12 of those 13 wins have come by 10 points or more. We recommend laying the points with the motivated and revenge-minded road favorite in this game on Saturday afternoon.
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Alabama had this game circled in red after losing 29-24 to Texas A&M as 13.5-point home favorites last season. That was the Crimson Tide’s only loss last season, and it was just their third home loss over the last five years. Alabama comes into this game off a bye week so they’ve had extra time to get ready for this revenge game in College Station. Don’t be quick to downgrade Alabama’s poor offensive performance in their season opener against Virginia Tech. The Hokies have one of the best defenses in the country so we’re willing to give Alabama’s offense a pass for that poor performance. Alabama’s defense was stout against Virginia Tech. The Crimson Tide held the Hokies to only 10 points on 212 yards of total offense with 77 of those yards coming on one play. The Crimson Tide’s defense got shredded last year by A&M, and they’ll be out to make amends for that ugly display of football.
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Texas A&M has rolled in their first two games; the Aggies have won their two games by a combined score of 117-59. But wins over inferior teams Rice and Sam Houston State mean absolutely nothing. Texas A&M is taking the biggest step-up in class versus Alabama in this game. When A&M beat Alabama last season, the Aggies already had nine games under their belt. They were battled tested in games against Florida, Mississippi, and LSU. Those games prepared them for Alabama. The Aggies don’t have that luxury this season, and facing a pair of cupcakes in no way prepares them for what they’ll face in the Crimson Tide. Alabama has won 13 consecutive games away from home and 12 of those 13 wins have come by 10 points or more. We recommend laying the points with the motivated and revenge-minded road favorite in this game on Saturday afternoon.

Wunderdog

Texas San Antonio at Arizona
Pick: Arizona -24.5

The Texas San Antonio Roadrunners played Oklahoma State to a 21-point game on the road last week as a 33.5 point underdog. But, the Cowboys are not the team they were the last few years. The Wildcats have it going on both sides of the ball, and have won their first two games by a total of 80 points, and this one does not look to be much different. Arizona has a punishing running attack which has ground-out 730 yards in two games. And, UTSA simply does not have the team speed or depth to handle it. Oklahoma State put up 610 yards on them last week, and Arizona is going to put up similar numbers. The difference here is that the Wildcats have a stronger defense, so the distance between these teams is going to show up early and often - especially on the scoreboard. An offense in motion tends to stay in motion in college football, and Arizona has covered four straight after topping the 40-point mark. Play on Arizona in this one.

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Stanford at ArmyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Stanford (1-0) faces a tough challenge to have to travel east to West Point, New York to then be ready to play at a Noon EST start time. Expect the Cardinal offense to start slow with their body clocks thinking it is 9 AM. As it is, Stanford has played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total. The Cardinal defense, however, should still slow down the Army ground game after holding San Jose State to just 251 yards of offense last Saturday in their 34-13 victory. That game finished below the 48.5 Total -- and Stanford has now played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of September. Additionally, the Cardinal has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams outside the Pac-12. Army (1-1) looks to rebound from their 40-14 loss at Ball State -- and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Now the Black Knights return home where they have played 22 of their last 30 home games Under the Total. Expect Army to do what they can to grind this game out by keeping the Stanford offense off the field by running the clock with their triple option rushing attack. Last week, the Black Knights churned out 363 rushing yards by averaging 5.7 yards per carry against the Cardinals' defense. Army will look to not be embarrassed in this one by shortening the time of the game -- there is a reason they have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Take the Under in this one.