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Arkansas +20.5FOR REE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Arkansas Razorbacks fell victim to the biggest upset of the season so far as they lost to Louisiana-Monroe 31-34 at home as a 30-point favorite. But with that loss comes some excellent line value as the Razorbacks get set to host No. 1 Alabama Saturday.
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Arkansas has had this Alabama game circled on its calendar all offseason. After storming out to a 28-7 lead over Louisiana-Monroe, it's easy to see why they let off the gas. There's no question the Razorbacks were looking ahead to this Alabama game, and it bit them last week.
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These players won't have any problem getting back to work and re-focusing on beating the No. 1 team in the country. "You've just got to throw that behind you," receiver Brandon Mitchell said. "You can't forget what happened because you've got to stay hungry, but we're not even thinking about [Louisiana-Monroe] now. It's like it never happened for us."
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All-SEC QB Tyler Wilson went out with a head injury against Louisiana-Monroe, and his status is uncertain for Saturday. I like Arkansas to cover this inflated number without him, so if Wilson plays it's only an added bonus.
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It was freshman QB Brandon Allen's emergence during the summer and preseason camp that allowed Arkansas to move Mitchell from quarterback to wide receiver. Allen struggled in his first extended playing time in last week's loss, finishing 6 of 20 for 85 yards as the Razorbacks blew a 21-point third-quarter lead.
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He was also victimized by several dropped passes against the Warhawks, one of which resulted in an interception. Allen didn't make any excuses for his performance, but he did say the Razorbacks had a false sense of security after his 13-yard third-quarter touchdown pass to Mekale McKay put them up 28-7.
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This week, head coach John L. Smith has remained confident in Allen, who has long been thought of as the quarterback of the future with the Razorbacks. That said, Brandon Mitchell, who completed 22 of 32 passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns in spot duty last year, has been taking some snaps in practice at his former position.
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I simply believe oddsmakers are putting too much stock in Arkansas' loss last week and its quarterback situation. This is one of the biggest rivalries in college football, and the Razorbacks will be up for this contest. They have the talent to make this a game, and that's precisely what I believe they'll do.
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Razorback Stadium is a tough place to play, and that's evident by the fact that Arkansas is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 home games. The Razorbacks are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 vs. a team with a winning record. Arkansas is 8-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons as well. Bet the Razorbacks Saturday.
Teddy Covers
Colorado State vs. San Jose State
Pick: San Jose State
The Colorado State program has declined markedly in the last five years. Let’s not forget where this program was a decade ago—at the top of the Mountain West, with head coach Sonny Lubick guiding the team to a bowl game nearly every season. Lubick’s replacement, Steve Fairchild, was unable to maintain his recruiting base, and the talent level dropped significantly during his tenure. Now Jim McElwain takes over a team that has gone 3-9 in each of the last three years; held to four wins or less in every year but one since 2006.
To make matters even worse for McElwain, his transition from Alabama’s offensive coordinator to the head coach in Ft Collins did not go smoothly. Trying to change a culture of losing is no easy task, and multiple impact players (particularly on defense) decided that Colorado State was no longer their best option to play football. With brand new systems being installed on both sides of the football, McElwain has made it very clear that this will be a process, not an immediate turnaround. I agree wholeheartedly!
While the Rams are in full-on rebuilding mode, as evidenced by their home loss to FCS North Dakota St last week, San Jose St is clearly on the way up in Mike MacIntyre’s third year on the job. The betting markets have been way behind the Spartans so far, undervaluing them by double digits in each of their first two ballgames (2-0 ATS). Their offense showed an explosive element last week, with De’Leon Eskridge running for three TD’s with QB David Fales completing 23 passes for 277 yards. And the Spartans defense held Stanford out of the end zone on ten consecutive drives to close the game in their opener, poised to shut down Colorado State at home on Saturday Night. Take the Spartans.
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Texas A&M vs. SMUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Texas A&M -12FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SMU won 52-0 last week against Stephen F Austin while Texas AM blew a halftime lead against Flroida in their SEC Opener, a game they dominated for almost 3 quarters before losing a tight one. SMU's score is very skewed as they were given 10 turnovers in that game, thats right 10 turnovers in 1 Game! They were also outgained 466-328 in total yards!
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Also bear in mind that Kevin Sumlin played SMU the past 5 years as Houstons head coach and know this team well enought to have a 5-0 SU and ATS record against them! Texas transfer QB Gilbert at SMU is not in total sync with Junes Jones offense and the Mustangs also lost all 5 OL starters from last year. Huge step up in class, love Texas AM here, by far the better team.
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TCU at KansasFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: TCUFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Charlie Weis is doing his best to rebuild the Jayhawk program, but it's going to take time and they just don't have the depth to hang with the Horned Frogs on Saturday. Kansas won game-one of the Weis-era, a 31-17 victory over South Dakota State. SDSU actually gained 411 yards against KU, and in fact, may have won the contest if not for committing five turnovers. Rice knocked off KU last week in Lawrence. The Owls topped 400 yards on the Jayhawk defense, also, and came from 11 points down to win the game 25-24. TCU brings back decent experience on the offensive side of the football and just warmed-up with a demolition of Grambing State. The Frogs scored 31 or more points in 11 of 12 regular season games last season and should have little trouble topping that number on Saturday. Defensively, TCU will face QB Dayne Crist, who's learning a new offense. Crist has connected on just 33 of 64 pass attempts with 2 TDs and 3 picks. The level of competition rises on Saturday and they aren't up to the task. I'm laying the points with TCU on Saturday.
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Navy vs. Penn State
Play: Navy +7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We like the Midshipmen to possibly upset Penn State this week. Last week we loved Penn State at +10 and they covered easily on the road against Virginia, but now it's back home where all the turmoil exists for a Penn State team that will face a service academy for the first time since 1979 and Navy for the first time since 1974.
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When Navy has the ball: It's pretty obvious what Navy is going to do here, and that's run the ball with their triple option. Now Penn State has great linebackers, but Penn State does not have much time to prepare for this game while Navy has an extra week. It also hurts Penn State that they do not regularly face the triple option actually none of the players on the team have and their head coach Bill O'Brien is an offensive coach that will have more of an offensive mindset. With that said Navy should be able to pick up first downs and control the time of possession.
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As good as Penn State has been on defense they have been terrible on third down allowing 18 of 20 conversions through the first two games. This is where Navy will have a huge advantage as they are regularly in the top 20 in third down conversions ranking 15th a year ago. As bad as Navy was against a Notre Dame team superior against the run they were still able to convert 44.4% of their tries on third down. Lastly do not sleep on Navy's ability to pass with junior QB Trey Miller as he surprised Notre Dame completing 14/19 for 192 yards. Penn State also lacks depth on defense and if Navy can avoid the turnovers they should be able to wear out this defense like Ohio did in the first game watch out for an upset.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When Penn State has the ball: Like Penn State, Navy's strength is at linebacker and they are used to getting pushed around up front. However, in this game Penn State really lacks RB talent and their two guys are banged up. They've been unable to run the ball and Bill O'Brien has already shown he's not shy about passing the ball with senior QB Matt McGloin. However, McGloin is nothing special as we already know and when he gets into the red zone he struggles.
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That's a huge issue because their place kicker is just terrible. He cost Penn State the game last week and I don't see much changing at home where he's sure to get some boos. Penn State will struggle to score and you should see a few red zone failures either due to kicking or the lack in confidence in the kicker leading to O'Brien to go for it on 4th down when he shouldn't. Either way I think this favors Navy who is 37-17 on point spreads in their last 54 road games.
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Rice vs. Louisiana TechFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Louisiana Tech -21FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisiana Tech is ranked #5 in the nation in offense, averaging 598.0 YPG. The squad brings a lot of speed and athleticism into this matchup. QB, Colby Cameron has a 65.4% CR, 353 YP, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs in the run-and-shoot offense. Cameron has a slew of capable receivers along with the tandem of King and Dixon (202 YR and 4 TDs combined) on the ground. This is a well-balanced offensive unit. They face a Swiss-cheese like defense of Rice that allowed 43.3 PPG in 27 of their L32 overall. Offensively the Owls only weapon is QB, Taylor McHargue. The Bulldogs will key on the dual-threat and contain the Rice "O". The Owls are 5-11-1 ATS their L17 games played vs. teams with a winning record, 3-9 ATS their L12 games played on the road, and 1-4 ATS their L5 games vs. the WAC. The Bulldogs are 9-0 ATS their L9 games played overall, 16-7 their L26 games played at home, and 5-0 their L5 vs. C USA. Take Louisiana Tech.
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Northwestern -3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston College bounced back from an 11-point home loss to Miami with a win over a cupcake (Maine), but I expect its first road trip of the season to result in a loss. Northwestern is 2-0 SU and ATS with a pair of impressive wins over BCS conference foes Syracuse and Vanderbilt. The Wildcats ran for 227 yards in last season's 24-17 win at Boston College. That was when the Eagles had Luke Kuechly in the middle. Without Kuechly, I don't see them slowing down a Northwestern ground attack that rushed for 191 yards last week. The Wildcats are a solid 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. The Eagles won big last week but are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Take Northwestern.
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Western Kentucky +6.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Since coach Willie Taggart took over, the Hilltoppers have been a covering machine. They are 21-7 ATS in all games under Taggart, including 18-4 ATS as an underdog and 12-2 ATS on the road. WKU lost 35-0 at Alabama last week but covered the 38-point spread. That's important to note because the Hilltoppers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Kentucky won last season's meeting 14-3 but didn't cover the 18-point spread as it was outgained 234-190. Kentucky is arguably the worst team in the SEC, and I expect the players to be much more interested in next week's game at Florida instead of focusing on the task at hand. Take the points.
Wunderdog
Wake Forest at Florida State
Pick: Florida State -28
The Florida State Seminoles were a dominating force in college football for over a decade, but the program slipped back in recent years. They are getting back to having a dominating team once again. The ‘Noles won nine games a year ago, and are poised to be in a BCS Bowl game this season. They have now held 10 straight opponents to 19 points or less including a couple of easy cupcake wins this year. The last conference team to do that was Florida State all the way back in 1998. Wake Forest has had a couple narrow escapes thus far. At 2-0, they edged North Carolina 28-27, then struggled vs. a non-FBS team by beating Liberty just 20-17. Wake can't run the ball, and the Noles’ defense is extraordinary. I would not be surprised if they were shutout as they were in 2010 vs. a tough Seminoles defense. Florida State lost to Wake last year, so they will have a little extra for this one. Wake is now 3-9 ATS in a game when following one in which they ran for less than 100 yards. Play on Florida State in this one.
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North Carolina vs. LouisvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: LouisvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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No. 19 Louisville has opened with two dominant victories and the Cardinals seek their first 3-0 start since 2006, when they host North Carolina. The year 2006 brings back special memories at Louisville, as that season culminated in school’s only BCS Bowl win, 24-13 over Wake Forest (Cardinals would finish No. 6 in the AP poll, 7th in the coaches’ poll). The Tar Heels figure to be a good test, after wins over one of the SEC’s weakest members (Kentucky) and FCS-member, Missouri State. It also mark’s Louisville’s third straight home game, before the Cardinals hit the road for games at FIU, Southern Mississippi and Pittsburgh.The tar Heels come in 1-1, off a heartbreaking 28-27 loss at Wake Forest last Saturday. Wake’s Tanner Price directed an 11-play, 93-yard scoring drive that ended when he scored from one-yard out with 2:09 left. North Carolina’s Bryn Renner had two final chances to bring back the Tar Heels but he threw a fourth-down interception with 1:25 left. Price threw for a career-high 327 yards for the Demon Deacons and that bodes very well for Louisville here, as its QB, Teddy Bridgewater, is 49-of-60 (81.7%) for 576 yards with two TDs and no INTs. Louisville’s averaging 470.5 YPG through two games and has only one turnover. The running game has averaged 175.0 YPG (4.2 YPC / 6 TDs) and Bridgewater has connected with 11 different receivers (six have five catches or more). North Carolina QB Bryn Renner was 10th in the nation in passing efficiency last season, (68.3% / 26-13 ratio / 3,086 yards) and he’s completing 61.7 percent of his passes with four TDs and two INTs for 507 yards after two games. RB Giovani Bernard (1,253 yards rushing in 2011) had 93 yards in nine carries in North Carolina’s season-opening win but he missed last Saturday’s loss to Wake Forest with an undisclosed injury. AJ Blue stepped in admirably, rushing for 106 yards and a TD plus Romar Morris had 70 yards and a score. Bernard practiced this week and could play. These teams met last year in Chapel Hill, with Carolina winning 14-7 (109 rushing yards from Bernard). However, the Tar Heels may not get off the mat so easily following that bitter 28-27 loss to Wake Forest, while Louisville has revenge on its mind. Louisville is 27-12 SU against non-conference teams since joining the Big East in 2005 and the Cardinals are on an impressive 8-1 ATS run in the regular season against FBS foes. Bridgewater has completed 81.7% of his passes in his first two games and he goes up against a North Carolina secondary which has allowed 47 TD passes since the beginning of 2010. Louisville gets the win and it comes with “room to spare.”
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North Texas vs. Kansas State
Pick: North TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We were on the wrong side of Kansas St. last week but that sets us up even better this week to go against the Wildcats. They played a near flawless game against Miami as they racked up close to 500 total yards, including 288 yards rushing on 60 carries (4.8 ypc). The Wildcats drive chart was a thing of beauty as they scored on eight of their first 10 drives with an interception and a missed field goal being the only non-scoring possessions. Kansas St. will not repeat that this week.
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North Texas used to dominate the Sun Belt Conference but it has not had a winning season since 2004 however it is on the rise. Head coach Dan McCarney, formerly the coach at Iowa St., is turning things around. Following a 5-7 season in his first year, he possesses on the best Mean Green teams to take the field in a while. The offense has nine starters back and even though it struggled in the opener against LSU, what team doesn't against that defense? They rallied for 497 yards last week against Texas Southern.
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Kansas St. is not only coming off that incredible performance against the Hurricanes but it has a game at Oklahoma next week to open Big XII action. The Wildcats certainly do not want to give away a lot heading into that matchup so coming away with any sort of victory here is all that is needed so they will not be running up the score to try and cover the more than four touchdowns. The game against the Sooners is the biggest conference test on the schedule so staying healthy is most important.
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Considering North Texas was getting 44 at LSU and now is getting 28 at Kansas St., this line is telling us that LSU is 16 points better than Kansas St. on a neutral field and I have to completely disagree with that. The Wildcats exceeded expectations last season with a 10-3 record and while they have easily won both games this year, they are not up to that elite status just yet. Consider this, against FCS Missouri St. they were knotted 9-9 midway through the third quarter and outgained the Bears by just 75 yards.
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The Mean Green had the ninth-most rushing yards in a game in school history with 352 total yards in the win over Texas Southern. Kansas St. will provide a tougher test but the Mean Green definitely have a slight edge here based on the coaching matchup as McCarney has gone against Kansas St. head coach Bill Snyder numerous times so he will have his team ready. McCarney owns two wins over Kansas St. and that may seem farfetched here, the cover is far from that.
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Idaho vs. LSUFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 55FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The LSU Tigers have the defense to completely shut down this Idaho offense. Idaho has scored a total of 16 points so far this year in two games against Bowling Green and Eastern Washington. It's hard to imagine Idaho getting to double digits here. LSU isn't typically a team to pour it on too much late in the game. Look for the Tigers to take care of business by dominating on the defensive end of the field.
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Texas A&M -11FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Motivated by last week's 3-point loss to Florida, expect the Aggies to take out their frustrations on SMU, who they defeated 46-14 last season.
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The discrepancy in talent was clear in last year's matchup, and nothing has changed as Texas A&M still has far better players. The Aggies are 10-0-1 against SMU dating back to 1985 and coach Kevin Sumlin went 4-0 against the Mustangs while at Houston.
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A&M's running attack, which racked up 212 yards in last season's rout, will again be the difference. SMU gave up 220 yards on the ground to Baylor in a blowout loss in Week 1 so its susceptibility to the run is clear.
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The Aggies are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 versus C-USA while the Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus the SEC. Also, keep in mind that road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that outgained opponents by 75 yards or more per game the previous season are 28-6 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 15.9 points and have won by an average of 26.9 points. Take Texas A&M.
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Western Kentucky vs. Kentucky
Play: Western Kentucky +6½
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Kentucky has a huge game on deck against Florida, the SEC opener. The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September and they take on a Western Kentucky team that this game means far more to, a local area rivalry. The Hilltoppers are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 road games and 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall. Talk about being under the radar by oddsmakers! These teams played a 14-3 game last year (7-3 in the fourth) as WK had the edge in yards 234-190 and forcing 3 turnovers. Play Western Kentucky.
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Southern Cal / Stanford Over 57
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The OU Line in this extremely important early-season PAC 12 game opened at 60 points last Sunday. The first initial OU 'push' moved the line down to a low of 56 points. Since then, it has started its creep back upward again. As of Friday afternoon, he line is in the range of 56.5 to 57 points. For that reason, you'll want to play this one as SOON as possible. There's a good chance the the OU line will continue to rise throughout gameday. So again, lock in your play ASAP.
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Based in the series history... each team's OU tendencies in the first month of the season... and last year's returning starters... I've run all situations in our College OU database. And the simulations tell me that this line is about 10 points too LOW. With USC currently favored by 8.5 to 9 pts, and the OU line at 56.5 to 57 pts... the anticipated final score from linesmakers is the following: USC 33 / Stanford 24.
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My database numbers keep on churning an AVERAGE final score of: USC 38 - STANFORD 30. That's about 11.5 points higher than the oddsmakers... and worthy of a Play on the OVER.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is historically a very HIGH-scoring series. 13 of the last 16 games have gone OVER the Total. In the last 10 matchups between these two, the results are 8-2 O/U. And in the last 4 seasons, the OVER has gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U. Average OU line: 57.1. Average total points scored: 80.0. Each game has gone OVER in the last 4 seasons by MORE than 3 full TD;s (+23.0 ppg). Last season, these two teams went OVER 100 points (final score: 56-48).
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I'm still not sold on the quality and depth of the Trojan defense. They have many holes. Syracuse exposed then to to the tune of 29 points last week (OU line was 62.5 / final score: 42-29). All those points DESPITE a scoreless first quarter! The Orange rolled up 455 yards of offense, including 322 via the air (QB Ryan Nassib was 30 - 46 for 322 yards). And Stanford went OVER by more than a TD in their game vs Duke as well. It all sets up for a PAC 12 shootout on Saturday night. PAC 10-12 games played in the first month of the season have averaged 63.2 ppg in the last 2 seasons.