ASAFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Wake Forest / Florida State Over 53.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
In seven of the last 10 meetings between these two teams one has scored 30+ points and we expect that again in 2012. Last year when these two hooked up they totaled 65 points and combined for 816 total yards of offense. Granted Florida State has played Murray State and Savannah State this year but they still managed to put up 69 and 55-points respectively. In last week's game against Savannah State they scored 55 pts in a weather shortened game that was called midway through the 3rd quarter. It's a given the Noles are going to score 40+ in this game against a Demon Deacon defense that has allowed 27 to North Carolina and 17 to Liberty. Wake was 70th in the nation in ppg allowed last year at 29.2 and 61st in yards per point allowed 14.3. Last season FSU scored 30 or more points in 8 of 13 games so we expect them to visit the endzone several times on Saturday. Wake goes against a very good Noles defense on Saturday but they looked good offensively against NC last weekend. WF will look to throw early and often in the game and rely on QB Price who was 27 of 38 for 327 yards passing against the Tarheels. Wake scores 17 here while FSU gets 45.
ASAFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Wake Forest / Florida State Over 53.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
In seven of the last 10 meetings between these two teams one has scored 30+ points and we expect that again in 2012. Last year when these two hooked up they totaled 65 points and combined for 816 total yards of offense. Granted Florida State has played Murray State and Savannah State this year but they still managed to put up 69 and 55-points respectively. In last week's game against Savannah State they scored 55 pts in a weather shortened game that was called midway through the 3rd quarter. It's a given the Noles are going to score 40+ in this game against a Demon Deacon defense that has allowed 27 to North Carolina and 17 to Liberty. Wake was 70th in the nation in ppg allowed last year at 29.2 and 61st in yards per point allowed 14.3. Last season FSU scored 30 or more points in 8 of 13 games so we expect them to visit the endzone several times on Saturday. Wake goes against a very good Noles defense on Saturday but they looked good offensively against NC last weekend. WF will look to throw early and often in the game and rely on QB Price who was 27 of 38 for 327 yards passing against the Tarheels. Wake scores 17 here while FSU gets 45.
Nelly
Ball State + over Indiana
Indiana is 2-0 this season but it is not an impressive 2-0, winning narrowly over FCS Indiana State and then taking out new FBS entrant Massachusetts last week. The win last week came with a cost as sophomore QB Tre Roberson was hurt in the second quarter. The Hoosiers didn't need him last week but his status is unclear as sophomore Cameron Coffman saw most of the remaining snaps. Ball State looks like a team that can make some noise in the MAC and could have a shot at the upset in this game. The Cardinals were dominant in an opening MAC game and after falling behind early last week against Clemson they kept fighting, getting 380 yards and scoring 27 points. Some of the scoring came late as the Cardinals were overmatched but the improvement in the running game has been remarkable with big numbers on the ground in both games this season. Ball State beat Indiana 27-20 last season and it would not be a major surprise if it happened again. Ball State has covered in four of the last five meetings between these state rivals and Indiana simply can't be trusted laying points.
Stan Lisowski
Bowling Green vs Toledo
Play: Toledo
Bowling Green can't run, mustering up just 95 average yards per game on the ground. Home team has been golden in this series winning 7 of the past 10 meetings outright while covering 8 of those matchups. Rockets are solid as a MAC home chalk at 61% spread winners their last 45 or so in that role.
Jerry Lambert
Miami Ohio vs. Boise State
Play: Boise State
The Boise State Broncos are at home off of a bye week after losing a hard fought game at Michigan State 17-13. The Boise State Broncos are a perfect 4-0 ATS when playing their last four games against the MAC Conference, and the Boise State Broncos are a stellar 9-2 ATS when playing their last eleven games in the month of September. The Miami Ohio Redhawks are a terrible 1-4 ATS when playing in their last five non-conference games, and they are a horrible 1-4 ATS following a bye week. We look for an old fashion whipping by the Boise State Broncos as they will grab the home ATS win & cover today.
Scott Delaney
On the heels of nailing the UNLV Rebels, a home underdog that caught anywhere from 8-1/2 to 9-1/2 points from the Washington State Cougars, last night, I'm rolling with the Connecticut Huskies laying a cheap price at Maryland, as I don't see the Terrapins being able to hang in this one.
This will be the second year Randy Edsall is in charge of the Terps, but it's the the Huskies' first crack at their former coach, who left the program in 2011. And something tells me U Conn is going in with some fire in the tank.
I know both teams have been ugly on offense thus far in 2012, but with so much momentum to go in and steal this on e on the road, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Huskies' rushing game light up behind running back Lyle McCombs.
Not just the top performer back for the Huskies this season, but he's the top returning rusher in the conference. And with quarterback Chandler Whitmer struggling a bit - he ranks 86th in the nation with his total offense - I suspect we're going to see McCombs attack Maryland's defense that allowed Temple to negate a 23-point lead, and cut the lead to two in the fourth quarter last week.
Yes, the Terrapins are on the verge of their first 3-0 start since 2001, but they're having to take on the third-best defense in the nation, albeit after just two weeks, and third-best scoring defense that is allowing just 5 points per game. Though the Huskies lost 10-7 to North Carolina State last week, they still have shown a stingy side through the first two weeks, and that's going to be the difference in this game.
Checking some of the betting trends in this clash, the Terps are in on ATS skids of 1-4 in non-conference play, 1-7 on grass (the Huskies are on a 4-1 spread streak on grass), 0-7 at home and 1-8 overall.
Lay the cheap price, as the Huskies win and cover.
2♦ CONNECTICUT
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick for Saturday in college football is going to be on the Southern Cal Trojans, laying -9 points, over the Stanford Cardinal. And as I prepared to handicap this one, researching as much as I could, all I kept reading was this was one of the matchups of the weekend, or how this was the most dangerous game for the Trojans.
Well if that's the case, then why was the line -8-1/2 for most of the week, and why has it moved to -9 at a couple of places?
Other than saying "Southern Cal is just that good," I don't have an answer for you, but I can tell you that ever since being dropped from the top spot in the polls, despite their season-opening win, the Trojans have a chip on their shoulders.
In fact, after dropping to third in the coaches’ poll following a 42-29 road blowout over Syracuse, coach Lane Kiffin said he'd be "very happy" if his troops kept moving down after winning every Saturday. Tongue in cheek, of course, he simply meant that his boys would continue to be motivated by the disrespect.
But forget all that for a moment, how about the fact the Trojans are in triple-revenge against the Cardinal. Despite the Trojans leading the all-time series, 58-28-3, this is the fifth time that USC has entered the Stanford game with a three-game losing streak to the Cardinal.
I know Stanford has averaged 39 points over the last five meetings with USC, and has posted a 4-1 record in those games, but the Trojans have everything to prove this season, and this would be the first big statement.
Southern Cal is in on ATS streaks of 5-1 versus winning teams, 4-1 on the road and 4-0 in Pac 12 play. The road team has covered six of the last seven meetings.
3♦ SOUTHERN CAL
Craig Davis
I am on a 72-58 free play run.
Saturday's free play is Notre Dame plus the points at Michigan State.
The Spartans are 2-0 with wins over Boise State (17-13) and Central Michigan (41-7)... both home wins, and they'll play games in the state of Michigan all the way through September too.
Sparty returns five offensive starters to run their multiple offense and have had to replace all-time record holder QB Kirk Cousins, their top two wide receivers, top TE, and their best offensive linemen.
So why is everyone so high on them?
Possibly because HC Mark Dantonio comes from Jim Tressell's National Championship staff and knows how to build a program (he might want to check his players for extra tatoos, though). So they lost a lot of great players... that means it's just time for someone to step up and fill a void.
Having said that, I wasn't impressed with MSU in either of their first two games, but tonight they could change all of that. I don't believe they will, but they can sure give it a shot.
Notre Dame, currently ranked 19th in the coaches poll, leads the series 46-28-1 overall and are 18-15-1 in East Lansing. Notre Dame dominated in South Bend last year in, quite possibly, their best overall game of the year. Michigan State ended up being a pretty good team and the Irish ran roughshod over them.
Sorry, I just don't trust QB Dan Maxwell to be able to figure out what Notre Dame is doing on defense as he'll likely see multiple looks and schemes.
Take Notre Dame plus the points as your free play of the day.
3♦ NOTRE DAME
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is a blowout winner on Mihcigan minus the big, big number at home against Massachusetts.
The Wolverines should welcome the Minutemen in Ann Arbor with open arms, as Brady Hoke's team got their hats handed to them by Alabama to open the season, and barely escaped a stiff challenge for three-touchdown underdog Air Force last weekend in the Big House.
Expect a no-nonsense attitude today against a UMass team that has been outscored 82-6 in losses to Connecticut and Indiana the past two weekends.
The Minutemen have only been able to come up with 161 total yards of offense in their first two losses, so it is very unlikely Massachusetts will score more than a field goal in this game.
Keep in mind that back in 2010 the Minutemen nearly toppled Michigan - then coached by Rich Rodriguez - bowing 42-37. No chance Brady Hoke lets that kind of result happen this afternoon.
Hoke went 4-2 last year against the spread as a home favorite, and now sports a 12-7 spread mark in the role of favorite dating back to 2010 when he was with San Diego State.
After a frustrating first two weeks of the season, Michigan names it this afternoon at home...oh say, 73-3.
3♦ MICHIGAN
Matt Rivers
Free play winner on Friday with the Boston Red Sox, now a 16-9 free play run coming into Saturday.
Saturday's free play winner is the UCLA Bruins minus the points at home against the Houston Cougars.
Why not?
Seriously, I could leave it at that based on the results of each teams first pair of games and that would be good enough, but here goes...
Here we have a Houston team that is rebuilding and learning the ropes under first year head coach Tony Levine, and it shows. The Cougars are 0-2 both straight up and against the spread, suffering losses to Texas State and Louisiana Tech.
Can't see things getting any better against a UCLA team that is off and running under new coach Jim Mora Jr.
The Bruins picked up a double-digit win and cover to open the season at Rice, and last Saturday night toppled Nebraska as the 5 1/2-point home underdog.
Obviously, Mora is doing something right. A letdown in this spot must be watched out for, but I believe this Bruins ship will keep sailing tonight as they get on top of this big number early in the second half, and never look back.
UCLA minus the points the call.
4♦ UCLA
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs +135
The Pittsburgh Pirates are still being treated like they are a good team. Similar to last year, a 51-44 start took them to 90 losses this team has completely folded down the stretch. The Pirates were once atop the NL Central and have taken a nose dive, losing seven straight games. They are also a dismal 5-17 over their last 22. They have in fact lost four straight to the Cubs as well - all in the last week. They have not even been competitive, losing by a combined score of 38-18 in the seven-game skid. The Cubs have now won six of their last seven and have claimed victory in each of their last five as a dog. The Pirates are now 71-153 in their last 224 on the road vs. a right-handed pitcher, while the Cubs a perfect 7-0 in their last seven vs. a lefty. Play on the Cubs.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Francisco / ARIZONA over 9½ +104
We keep getting paid off when wagering on Barry Zito starts to go over the total and see no reason to back off now. Zito’s skills continue to drop but he has not shown up in the W/L column. Remarkably, the Giants have won his last seven starts despite Zito allowing 44 hits in 36 innings. Three of those Giants wins were by scores of 8-7, 9-8 and 9-6, suggesting the Giants come to the park with the mentality that they have to score runs to support Zito.
Wade Miley is up to 170 innings on the year. His previous best was 153. He’s allowed 17 hits and eight runs over his past 11 innings and it came at pitcher-friendly venues in San Diego and Los Angeles. Miley’s strikeouts are down his fly-ball rate in September has soared to 46% and all of these are red flags that this is a pitcher suffering from fatigue.
Chase Field is a haven for line-drives in the gap. It’s a haven for high scoring games. This matchup between two struggling pitchers should provide plenty of scoreboard activity.