Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 17,2011

DUNKEL INDEX

NY Mets at Atlanta
The Mets look to follow up on yesterday's 12-2 win and take advantage of an Atlanta team that is 2-8 in Tim Hudson's last 10 starts following a team loss in the previous game. New York is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+150)

Game 951-952: Houston at Chicago Cubs (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Sosa) 14.826; Cubs (Lopez) 14.449
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-140); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); N/A

Game 953-954: St. Louis at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Westbrook) 14.749; Philadelphia (Oswalt) 16.375
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 955-956: Florida at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 14.253; Washington (Strasburg) 15.439
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-225); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-225); Over

Game 957-958: NY Mets at Atlanta (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Dickey) 15.186; Atlanta (Hudson) 14.182
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+150); Under

Game 959-960: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.200; Cincinnati (Volquez) 15.530
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+110); Over

Game 961-962: San Francisco at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Surkamp) 15.743; Colorado (Pomeranz) 15.985
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-125); Under

Game 963-964: Arizona at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Collmenter) 15.409; San Diego (LeBlanc) 14.779
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-150); Over

Game 965-966: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (McDonald) 15.072; LA Dodgers (Lilly) 14.086
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+140); Under

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Colon) 15.318; Toronto (Alvarez) 16.295
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+130); Under

Game 969-970: Cleveland at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Gomez) 14.550; Minnesota (Swarzak) 15.507
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-120); Over

Game 971-972: Detroit at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 16.109; Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.404
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 973-974: LA Angels at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.683; Baltimore (Britton) 16.807
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+140); Over

Game 975-976: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Stewart) 13.628; Kansas City (Teaford) 15.636
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-140); Under

Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Boston (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.870; Boston (Lester) 14.865
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+145); Over

Game 979-980: Texas at Seattle (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 16.925; Seattle (Vasquez) 15.205
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-195); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-195); Over

WNBA

Indiana at New York
The Liberty look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 conference semifinal games. New York is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Liberty favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: New York (-3 1/2)

Game 659-660: Indiana at New York (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 111.694; New York 116.705
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 5; 144
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 3 1/2; 147
Dunkel Pick: New York (-3 1/2); Under

Game 661-662: Seattle at Phoenix (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 115.160; Phoenix 114.677
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 163
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 160 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Over

CFL

BC at Calgary
The Lions look to take advantage of a Calgary team that is coming off a win at Edmonton last week and is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU victory. BC is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: BC (+5)

Game 293-294: Toronto at Saskatchewan (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 107.625; Saskatchewan 112.199
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 4 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 7; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+7); Over

Game 295-296: BC at Calgary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 116.631; Calgary 116.423
Dunkel Line: Even; 53
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (+5); Over

Ben Burns

Northern Illinois @ Wisconsin
PICK: Northern Illinois +17.5

The Badgers were initially laying -18 against Oregon State last week. They were a popular side though and the line got bet all the way up to -21 by kickoff. It didn't matter. Wisconsin won 35-0. Off that blowout, the Badgers have quickly become an even bigger "darling" of the betting public. Indeed, early indicators point to the Badgers being one of the most "popular" plays of the week. That said, with all due respect to Wisconsin, I feel this line has become rather "inflated."

The Huskies boast an extremely talented and experienced offense and have scored 49 and 42 points in their two games, averaging better than 485 yards. Northern Illinois head coach Dave Doeren was with Wisconsin the past five years and surely wants this one. With the Huskies at 16-6-2 ATS the last 24 times they were underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range, consider grabbing all those generous points.

Hollywood Sports

Hawaii at UNLV
Play: Hawaii

Is it good news or bad news that UNLV (0-2) returns just three defensive starters from a unit that allowed 39.7 YPG last season? Considering that the Rebels are allowing a whopping 55.5 PPG along with 555.5 YPG so far this season, it looks like things may get worse before they get better for second year head coach Bobby Hauck. With a first-starting quarterback in sophomore Caleb Herring averaging only 4.38 YPA, UNLV really will miss their four-year starting QB Omar Clayton when facing high-scoring Hawaii offense led by senior QB Bryant Moniz who passed for more than 5000 yards last year. The Warriors (1-1) will be looking to take out their frustration after losing at Washington by a 40-32 score (as a 5.5-point underdog) despite narrowly losing the first down battle by a 22-20 margin to the Pac-10 team. Hawaii has covered 5 straight games both off a straight-up loss as well as a point spread loss. Moniz completed an efficient 31 of 45 passes for 333 yards against the Huskies defense which is a very ominous sign when now facing the suspect Rebels' defense with three new starters at linebacker. The Warriors have covered 5 straight road games as a favorite while UNLV is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of more than ten points. The Rebels come off a 59-7 loss at Washington State -- and they are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Lay the points with Hawaii.

Tony George

Wyoming vs. Bowling Green
Play: Wyoming +8.5

I like the Cowboys to cover the number in this one on Saturday. While not a marquee game, I like games that fly under the national radar so to speak and this is one of them. Wyoming has a solid head coach with an offensive mind, and a great 1-2 punch at running back as well. Bowling Green is not a good cover team, especially at home covering just 6 out of their last 17. The Cowboys picked up a highly touted QB last year in Brett Smith, and as a true freshman has thrown for 530+ yards and 4 TDs. I feel a balanced attack against BG will surprise many in this game and Wyoming to make a real game of this and trade punches on the scoreboard and keep it within the number in a high scoring game.

Tony Stoffo

Utah vs. BYU
Play: Under

Free College release for Saturday September 17th Utah at BYU After watching both of these teams in their opening games - I just can't see any scoring by either squad here. Utah couldn't move the ball against Montana State and USC - So don't see them doing anything here today against this solid BYU defense. While the BYU offense has only managed 1 touchdown a game in their first two match-ups I just don't understand the total the odds makers have posted here making for a highly recommended play on the Under. Plus every trend I looked at for this game points towards a low scoring game. Under is 4-0 in Utes last 4 games overall. Under is 5-1 in Utes last 6 road games. Under is 6-0 in Cougars last 6 games in September. Under is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 games overall. Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Brigham Young.

Jack Jones

Texas vs. UCLA Bruins
Play: Texas -3½

Texas is off to a promising 2-0 start this season. They beat Rice 34-9 in their opener, then came away with a 17-16 victory against a very good BYU team last week. They won that game in spite of terrible play from QB Garrett Gilbert, who was 2 of 8 for eight yards with two interceptions before getting replaced.

Case McCoy is expected to get the first snaps when the 23rd-ranked Longhorns visit UCLA on Saturday. McCoy went 7 of 8 for 57 yards and led the winning drive in the fourth quarter, while David Ash completed 2 of 3 passes for 35 yards and rushed for 36. McCoy is the brother of former Texas quarterback Colt McCoy, who won an NCAA-record 45 games between 2006-09. Case McCoy showed flashes of those heroics last Saturday, connecting twice with Jaxon Shipley for big gains before Cody Johnson scored on a 4-yard run to put Texas ahead.

With McCoy now under center, Texas should be able to get the most out of their offense. They have a stud tailback in Malcolm Brown, who has rushed for 154 yards in the early going. Cody Johnson has scored three rushing touchdowns for the Longhorns as well.

The Longhorns were 3-0 and ranked seventh last year before losing 34-12 to UCLA at home Sept. 25. That game started a season-ending 2-7 slide for Texas. They came into the 2011 season more hungry than another other team in college football, and will certainly be looking for revenge Saturday.

UCLA has not looked impressive in the early going. The Bruins lost to Houston 34-38, and then barely beat San Jose State 27-17 last Saturday. The Bruins have allowed an average of 393 yards/game through their first two, while Texas has yielded just 229 yards/game in their two contests. It's clear that the Longhorns once again have one of the most dominant defenses in the country.

The Bruins continue to get poor QB play, and they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. UCLA is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games as well. Texas is going to stack eight in the box and make UCLA QB Kevin Prince try to beat them, and it's just not going to happen for the overmatched Bruins. Bet the Longhorns Saturday.

Marc Lawrence

West Virginia at Maryland
Prediction: Maryland

Danny O’Brien and the Maryland offense looked good – though their uniforms did not – in their season-opening win over Miami. What looks even better is the Terps' 12-day respite. They’ll certainly need it as the Mountaineers are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in this series since 2005. First-year head coach Randy Edsall has been a moneymaker at home in his career, going 33-18-3 ATS overall, including 8-0 ATS when hosting a foe off a win of 30 or more points. With new WVU coach Dana Holgorsen making his road debut, expect the Terps to exact exact a measure of revenge against the Hillbillies today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Maryland.

Sean Murphy

Tennessee @ Florida
Pick: Tennessee +9.5

For the first time in five years, I feel the Vols have a legitimate shot at competing with the Gators in their annual showdown.

You have to go all the way back to 2006 to find the last time Tennessee stayed within single digits against Florida.

I like the spark that the Vols have shown so far this season. They took care of business against FCS squad Montana in their opener, rolling to a not-so-surprising 42-16 victory. However, last week, Tennessee really stepped up and crushed a good Cincinnati team 45-23.

The Vols success can only be looked at as a continuation of what we saw late last season. Remember, Tennessee finished the 2010 campaign on a four-game winning streak before falling by a field goal in overtime against North Carolina in the Music City Bowl.

For the first time in a long time, the Vols have a quarterback they can trust in Tyler Bray. Since taking over the reins last season, he's thrown 25 touchdowns compared to only 10 interceptions.

I'm a big supporter of Vols head coach Derek Dooley. He's always been able to get the most out of his players, and in his second year at the helm in Tennessee, there's no reason to expect anything but steady progression. With that in mind, this is a huge game for this program.

Obviously, Tennessee will be facing its stiffest test so far this season in Florida. The Gators are off to a perfect 2-0 start, outscoring the opposition 80-3. Of course, we shouldn't jump to conclusions as they've faced a pair of rebuilding squads in Florida Atlantic and UAB.

I'm not convinced that the Gators are that much better than they were a year ago, when they lost five games, including three on this field. They have a number of players banged up right now, and could be a little high on confidence given their strong start, combined with their recent dominance of Tennessee.

Much of Florida's recent ATS success came in a previous era. The Gators have posted identical 6-6 ATS records in each of the last two regular seasons. It's also worth noting that they're 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite priced between -3.5 and -10. Take Tennessee.

Bettors World

Ole Miss -1.5 over Vanderbilt

Forgive us for breaking one of our own cardinal rules of not asking a bad team to win for us. Forgive us for asking that team to not only win but win on the road. Forgive us for backing a team that the public also likes to the tune of 85%. Forgive us for using Houston Nutt and Ole Miss as our first Key Release of the year. Hopefully, we don't regret it, but we think we can make a strong case for the Rebels.

What can we learn about both teams thus far in 2011? Both look to be improved on the defensive side of the ball, while the jury is still out concerning both offenses. Both teams played respectably against "good" teams, with Ole Miss having the lead on BYU before BYU recovered a fumble in the End Zone for the win and Vandy coming from behind to beat UCONN, who is likely down a notch or two this year. Both teams also beat teams they were supposed to beat, with Vandy beating Elon and Ole Miss beating Southern Illinois. Both did so by wide margins.

We'll call it a wash as far as grading these teams based on their first two games, but note that Vandy is 2-0 while Ole Miss is 1-1. So, in order to further handicap this one, we need to do two things. One, evaluate the current talent as best we can and two, take a look back to last season to see what we can learn.

It should be safe to say that the Ole Miss talent, player for player, is always going to be better than Vanderbilt's. Both of these teams are at the bottom of the recruiting totem pole as far as the SEC is concerned, but let's face it, Vandy faces obstacles that very few programs do. Specifically, their high academic standards. Not that smart kids can't play football, but hey, the talent pool is already small due to the best players going to the well known schools.

To further hammer home this point, one need only look at the wins and losses of the program over any given time frame. Vanderbilt has had six 2 win seasons over the last 10 years! When they weren't busy winning 2 games, they were out winning 4 and 5 games, with one 7 win overachieving year in 2008. If you look at the Ole Miss record over the same time span, the last 10 years, you'll find a couple of 7 win seasons and a couple of 9 win seasons and even a 10 win season. In fact, during the same time span, Ole Miss won 27 more games than Vanderbilt. Better talent, plain and simple. That will never change.

What stands out to us when we look back at Vandy in 2010 was their inability to score points. They averaged just 17 points per game. That's not a stat that's limited to just last year. The year before they averaged 16 points per game and in general rarely average more than 19 or 20. Ole Miss on the other hand, found the end zone. They scored 55 on Fresno, 42 on Kentucky, 31 on Auburn, 36 on LSU and 23 on a good Miss State defense. (Vandy managed just a field goal on LSU and 20 on Kentucky in a losing effort)

You're likely saying yeah, but, Vanderbilt BEAT Ole Miss last year 28-14! Yes they did. Not only that, but Vanderbilt has beaten Ole Miss 4 out of the last 6 times and Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt is 1-2 against them since he took over. All reasons that we feel favor Ole Miss here. Revenge is sweet in college ball, but let's face it, when you're Ole Miss, coming off a 4-8 season, with revenge games against Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and so on, you kind of have to pick your spots. Which games can you realistically expect to win?

The game is HUGE for Ole Miss and not just because of the realistic chance for a little revenge. It's huge because a loss here would make Ole Miss 1-2 with all of the heavyweights of the SEC still to come. A loss here would likely deflate this team and put their backs squarely against the wall as far as improving upon their 4 wins a year ago and making it to a bowl game. Yeah, this is a must win (aren't they all)

Ole Miss likely has trouble with Vandy because the games come early in the year. A team like Vandy is never going to be very deep. As the season goes on, and the injuries mount, so do the losses. Just the same, we feel Ole Miss is the better team.

The Ole Miss offensive line was tagged by many as a line that could lead Ole Miss to become one of the better rushing teams in the SEC. We'll see. But they'll also be responsible for protecting 2 QB's as both Randall Mackey and Zack Stoudt have seen action.

With both defenses apparently improved, the bottom line for us here is that we feel Ole Miss is the more likely of these two teams to be able to put enough points on the board to win. Other than 28 against these Rebels and 52 against Eastern Michigan, Vandy didn't top the 21 point mark all year. Ole Miss scored more than 21 on 9 different occasions.

New coach for Vandy (James Franklin) who brings plenty of much needed enthusiasm to the program but there has to be growing pains. You can't win games with enthusiasm alone.

We look for Ole Miss to get their revenge here, and, at least temporarily, give some hope to their season as they'll be 2-1 heading into games with Georgia and Fresno. 3* Ole Miss -1.5

Spartan

Stanford -9

Nice late night Pac 10 battle featuring the Cardinals and Wildcats. Not crazy about laying the nine on the road but Andrew Luck should find success early and often going up against this Arizona secondary. Plus on the other side I cannot see Arizona getting anything of substance accomplished on the ground against this stiff run defense of Stanford's. I always love home dogs and believe me I've looked for any valid reason to support a play on them here in this prime time spot but keep coming up empty. Might seem square but at -9 the Cardinals are the smart play here. If Oklahoma State and Weeden can torch this Cat's defense then I have a tough time not believing Luck and his receiving corps cannot do likewise. Lay the points and watch Luck continue his Heisman march.

Larry Ness

UTEP at New Mexico State
Pick: UTEP

It seems like almost all rivalry games have some sort of catchy name, some we may understand and others make sense to only the schools/fans themselves. UTEP (El Paso) and New Mexico State (Las Cruses) are just 46 miles apart, connected by Interstate 10. I get “The Battle of I-10” but am less sure regarding the battle for the Silver Spade and Brass Spittoon trophies. How about you? What I do know is the following. UTEP has won SEVEN of the last 10 meetings between these two schools, including the last two years by scores of 42-10 in El Paso and 38-12 in Las Cruces. DeWayne Walker is in his third season at New Mexico St and he’s 5-21 SU in his first two seasons, continuing a trend which has seen the Aggies go just 16-58 SU from 2005 (when the team was 0-12) through 2010 and 24-40-4 ATS. It would be fair to say that NMSU has been among the very weakest FBS programs during that span. In comparison, Mike Price came to UTEP eight years ago and in his seven seasons at El Paso he’s taken the Miners three bowl bids and won FIVE of seven meetings in the “Battle for the Silver Spade and Brass Spittoon” (I’m learning as I go). The set up for this game is the following. NMSU opened its season with a 44-24 home loss to Ohio U (game wasn’t as close as the final) but then won its first-ever game vs a Big 10 school last Saturday, shocking Minnesota on the road 28-21 as 22-point underdogs. It marked the school’s first win against an opponent from a BCS conference since beating Arizona State in 1999. The Aggies will now try to win back-to-back games for the first time since 2008 and will have to do it as a small favorite. UTEP needed overtime to beat FCS Stony Brook in its season opener 31-24 (hardly impressive) but hung tough at SMU last Saturday in a 28-17 loss. The bad news was that starting QB Nick Lamaison was lost to a shoulder separation in the third quarter. If not for the injury to Lamaison, I’d have a significant play on the Miners with NMSU coming off its biggest win in a decade. I’ll take UTEP anyway, as NMSU is 3-14 ATS at home since the beginning of 2008, but for a smaller amount.

James Patrick Sports

Virginia vs. North Carolina

HC Mike London and his Cavs nearly blew (23-3) lead in (34-31) victory at Indiana. We'll still grab the DDs with Cav squad that’s covered (8) of past (10) in this series, including major upset at Chapel Hill in 2009. UNC just (3-7) its last (10) as an ACC favorite. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday College Football complimentary selection is Virginia Cavaliers.

Freddy Wills

Houston vs. Louisiana Tech
Play: Louisiana Tech +7½

Video is above but I'll break it down. With 72% of the public jumping on Houston and the spread going the opposite way I am concerned. I think Houston has yet to be tested and their offensive line is a huge liability that may just rear it's ugly head on the road as they have 3 first time starters along that line. Expect L.A. Tech to really attack Keenum as their defensive line is much improved they are only allowing 3.3 yards per carry and unlike Houston's defense that has 0 sacks they have 5. JUCO transfer Jonal White is a force inside and despite Houston having a talented backfield I think L.A. Tech can get some stops and I'm not so sure I can say the same about Houston's defense.

Houston's defense just played two offenses that are not very good and now they face an up tempo L.A. Tech team that can score points and can milk the clock with a solid running game behind Sr. Lennon Creer who had 1181 yards on 5.6 yards per carry average a year ago. Houston has 0 sacks and are under sized up front, but they can be passed on too and L.A. Tech thinks they have their future in freshmen Nick Isham who is nicknamed Mr. Cool as he does not make mistakes and is not rattled. I think Houston will be in a back and forth fight on Saturday.

Rob Veno

These were the final four plays to get cut from Saturday’s college football card.

West Virginia/Maryland OVER 57.5 – In the end, the total just climbed to high for me to recommend. The ingredients are all there for this contest to be played at break neck pace with each offense now a bit more comfortable in their new offensive systems. Quarterbacks Geno Smith and Danny O’Brien can make plays but West Virginia’s ground game was stoned by Marshall’s defensive front and Maryland only scored 18 offensive points versus a suspension ravaged Miami (FL) defense. Getting over the total is still a real possibility but see it skimming rather than soaring over because of the 6-6.5 line move.

Navy +16.5 – The Midshipmen's option has not missed departed star quarterback Ricky Dobbs one bit as senior Kriss Proctor and the experienced offensive line has paved the way to 400.5 rushing yards per game on 6.9 yards per carry. While the competition was inferior, it wasn’t inept as FCS power Delaware and improving Western Kentucky can provide some resistance. Neither has ability close to the front seven of this South Carolina squad but their willingness to intensely prepare for the option is questionable here. Have to believe the Gamecocks will do just enough to get the victory here and as long as this efficient Navy team doesn’t provide multiple fumbles and short fields, -16.5 seems to be too large of a mountain to climb. Scheduling provides Navy with a bye week next week before their battle with Air Force while South Carolina follows this game with four straight weeks of conference foes.

BYU -3.5 – Revenge factor seems relevant to me in this spot after Cougars blew a 13-0 lead after three quarters last year. BYU also gets the benefit of this game being their 2011 home opener which figures to make the stadiums emotional level a bit larger than usual. Can’t help but feel that Cougars will look to open things up offensively this week after a pair of ultra conservative road efforts. Offensive coordinator Brandon Doman is under some early criticism for his play-calling and that heat combined with the friendly environment should see him allow quarterback Jake Heaps to push the ball downfield some more here. Questions about Utah quarterback Jordan Wynn’s throwing should still persist and the Utes’ 4.6 yards per play, which includes a game against Montana State, has been abysmal.

Mississippi -2 – Now that the decision is firm and quarterback Zack Stoudt is in his second game at the helm, expect more downfield production out of the Rebels. Last week’s four touchdown performance out of running back Jeff Scott (3 rushing, 1 punt return) will certainly have Vandy committed to stopping the run. Mississippi’s offensive line, skill position players are by far the best the Commodores have seen thus far and their defensive front is as good if not better than the Connecticut one which held Vanderbilt to 3.7 yards per rush and recorded seven sacks last week. This is a must win for Ole Miss and this price range is very doable.