Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY (CFB Game Of The Month)
Washington State +5.5 over San Diego State: The Cougars are picked for last in the North Division of the PAC-12, but this still may be the most improved team in the league. Now they take on a SDSU team that is just 2-35-1 vs the PAC-12, and is off a cross-country trip to play Army and then they have a game at Michigan on deck to take on their ex-HC Brady Hoke. Not an easy spot for the Aztecs, and even if the schedule didn't set up this way for them they would still be taking on a tough opponent this week. Washington state hasn't played top notch opponents, but they've done what they should vs inferior opponents and that's crush them. The Cougars have outscored their opponents by 47.5 ppg and outgained them by 295 ypg through their first 2 game. Here's a comparison for ya. In UNLV's opening game vs Wisconsin (one of the best teams in the nation) they got 17 points and 292 yards off that top notch defense, but last week they were only able to grab just 7 points and 138 yards off this improved Wash. State defense. Ok were not gonna confuse this defense with the Badger defense, but what it shows is that the Cougars did what you should vs bad competition. So when I look at the numbers they put up vs their 2 opponents, I say year that's about right. The Aztecs have also played some weak competion, but last week despite their 3 point win over Army they were still outgained by 154 yards in the contest. The Aztec's had a good defense last year, but with 5 starters back I see that group struggling, especially vs a Cougar offense that has put up 600 ypg so far. The Aztec offense will be good this year behind RB Ronnie Hillman, but it won't be near as explosive as last year group that put up 35 ppg last year. Right now their weak link on the offense is at WR where they just aren't getting solid play after having to replace their top 3 from last year. The Cougs came into this season just 5-32 in their last 3 years and this year they have started 2-0 and that will give them confidence in this one, especially vs a SDSU team that is in a tough scheduling spot and that is just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs the PAC-Whatever it is now. I look for the outright upset in this one as my CFB GOM.
4 UNIT PLAY
Oklahoma -3 over FLORIDA STATE: Yes I am one of the many that have bought into the hype of the Noles, as I do expect them to have a great year, just not a great game in this one. Last year OU beat FSU by 30 points and I do not feel that the Noles improved enough to close that gap, by 28 points. Yes FSU is improved and will most likely win the ACC and be a top 10 team this year, but Oklahoma is and will be just flat out awesome this year. The Sooners are led by Landry Jones and his is one of the top 3 QB's in the nation and dating back to last year he has put up 376 ypg and 17 TD's in his last 6 starts. Last year vs the Noles he put up 380 yrd and 4 TD's. This is one very good QB. Landry also gets their #2 WR back from suspension in Kenny Stills. Like he needs anymore weapons. The Noles defense is improved over last year and they have allowed just 5ppg and 134 ypg so far, but they really haven''t played anyone yet and they will have all sorts of problems with this high powered OU attack. The OU defense is also strong this year and they held a Tulsa offense that was top 5 in the nation last year and brings back 10 starters this year, to just 14 points. They also did that without DT Stacy McGee who was on suspension, but they get him back this week. The FSU offense will be able to get yards through the air,. But they also need a good running attack to take the pressure off EJ Manuel and this offense. Through their first two games vs shitty competition they have averaged just 4 ypc on the ground. Not gonna get it done here. Oklahoma is Bob Stoops is 11-2 ATS with a line at +3 to -3. The line is only 4 points different than last year while the Noles have improved I just don't think that they did enough to close the gap from the 30 point they lost by last year, even on their home field. OU by 10+ here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Navy +17.5 over SOUTH CAROLINA: Can the Gamecocks really be up for this one? They opened with a tough fast break game vs E. Carolina in the opener, then had a huge game vs Georgia last week and then have another SEC foe, Vanderbilt on deck. All that is going on for south Carolina and now they have just 1 week to prepare for the option. This is not a good spot for them. SC is 2-0 on the year, but just how good are they? They beat East Carolina by 19 points, but only outgained them by 6 yards and then last week they allowed Georgia to march up and down the field and despite the win they were still outgained by 41 yards. Last week they were very lucky as the Bulldogs made a ton of mistakes and practically gave the game away. SC scored 28 points off TO's and still only won by 3 points. SC's offense has been spectacular so far, but the defense has been bad as they have allowed 390 ypg and 39.5 ppg so far. Navy is 2-0, but their level of competition hasn't been that strong. Their defense was to be a sore spot, with just 3 starters back, but so far they have allowed just 15.5 ppg and having 2 games under their belt should help them as they have some game experience for this one. The option should also help to shorten the game and keep that strong Carolina offense off the field. The Dog is 7-1 ATS when Navy takes on a BCS school and they are 3-0 ATS the last 3 vs Carolina. The Gamecocks have not played all that well so far and are in a classic sandwich spot and Navy has just the right team with just the right offense to keep this one close.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
ILLINOIS -2 over Arizona: This play has a very nice angle attached to it and ill get to that in a moment. This is a very nice spot for the Illini as they are off 2 FCS foes and just have Western Michigan up next. The Sun Devil are not so lucky as they are off a home OT thriller vs Missouri and now have to travel cross-country, before traveling back home to take on USC next week. Ouch. Illinois is going to be a good team this year with 13 starters and 42 of 58 lettermen back from a team that improved from 3-9 in 2009 to 7-6 last year. The offense is led by sophomore QB Nathan Scheelhaase and he has been solid so far hitting 76.7 % of his passes for 213 yards and a 9.9 ypa average. I know its vs shitty competition, but 77% is still outstanding, no matter who your doing it against. The ASU defense has play an FCS and a FBS team and they have allowed teams to hit on 61% of their passes for 237 yards so far. Coming into the year the ASU DB's were ranked among the bottom 3rd in the PAC-12 and it's showing. They will have problems containing Nathan tonight. The ASU offense has been solid out the gate, as was expected as they have put up 504 ypg and have hit 75% of their passes, but this will be the quickest defense they may see all year. Again I know Illinois hasn't played anyone, but they have still allowed just 9 ppg and 223 ypg thus far. Ron Zook has gone 8-1 ATS in his last 9 vs undefeated teams, while ASU is 9-20-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Bpoth offenses are very good, but the Illini have the defensive edge, they are playing at home and catch ASU off a tough game with a look-a-head to USC on deck. Solid Illinois win here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- PLAY AGAINST any undefeated college football road team off an overtime home win if they are facing a foe that won 15 or more of its previous 32 home games SU.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Colorado State +7.5 over Colorado: Neutral site for this one and the dog is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings, while CSU is 16-8 ATS vs an opponent off BB SU losses and we also note that teams are 3-7 ATS off an OT loss when laying points to an undefeated team. Tough spot for the buffs as they are off a Hawaii trip and then an OT loss to Cal last week with Ohio State on deck. CSU may not have a great year, but they are much improved over last years 3-9 team and they do have bowl aspirations this year and with Utah State and San Jose State on deck they know that a win here could have them at 5-0 before their bye. I expect them to have their “A” game for this one and at least keep it close vs a Colorado team that hasn't played well under the new regime just year.
Notre Dame/ Michigan State Over 51.5: The only thing that has stopped the Irish offense this year has been themselves as they have put up 510.5 ypg of offense, but just 25.5 ppg thanks to 10 TO's. That has translated into an offensive YPP of 20. The Irish pass attack has put up 353 ypg so far and they will be taking on a Michigan State Defense that really hasn't been tested yet, but does have some holes in it's secondary. The Notre Dame defense has not been great thus far, as they have allowed 29 ppg and 353 ypg thus far and could struggle vs a high powered Michigan State offense. 5 of the last 7 in this series has seen 55+ points put on the board and that's about what I expect today.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Iowa/ Pittsburgh Under 50.5: The offenses were not to be that good for these teams heading into the year but their level of week competition has allowed these teams to put up plenty of points so far. Today the defenses take hold of this game and the scoring will be down. Pitt has the best defense in the Big East, while Iowa has a solid Big 10 defense. Iowa's defensive stats are a bit inflated after last weeks 3 OT game, but make no mistake this is a tough bunch. The Under is 13-5 in Pitt's last 18 following an ATS loss, while the Under is 17-6-1 in Iowa's last 24 games in September. I see no more than 45 in this one.
USC/ Syracuse Under 49: Where's the “O”? That''s what the Trojan's are wondering as they have put up just 18 ppg and they have an offensive YPP (Yards per point) of 18.7. Defense will not be aproble for this team as they have 7 starters back to a unit this is considered to the best in the PAC-12. USC's defense played very badly last year but so far have allowed just 15.5 ppg and 310 ypg. The Orange offense just isn't strong enough to do mush damage vs thee Trojans here, while their defense should be up to the task to hold this floundering USU offense down a bit.
Teddy Covers
Hawaii @ UNLV
PICK: Over 59.5
In UNLV’s opener at Wisconsin, the Rebels allowed Wisky to score on eight consecutive drives to open the game. No surprise, then, that the game flew Over the posted total. Last week, at Washington State, UNLV allowed the Cougars to score five consecutive touchdowns on their first five drives of the game. Once again, the game flew Over the total.
Bobby Hauck’s young defense is primed to struggle against Hawaii again this week. The Warriors offense is already in midseason form, hanging 34 on Colorado in their opener and 32 on Washington last week. Even with a rebuilt offensive line in front of him, Warriors senior QB Bryant Moniz is a real playmaker, in an excellent rhythm with his speedy receiving corps. This is a real step down in class for a Hawaii offense that just torched a pair of PAC-12 foes.
These two teams have played four times in the last five years. Hawaii has torched UNLV’s defense every time, scoring 59 on them last year, and 33, 49 and 42 in the three previous meetings. UNLV is no faster or better at the cornerback and safety positions than they’ve been in recent seasons. And the Rebels have no discernable homefield edge, especially on a night where Hawaii fans will be well represented at Sam Boyd Stadium.
But UNLV has the potential to put up some points themselves on Saturday Night; taking a step down in defensive class as well. Rebels QB Caleb Herring has flashed great potential. The Rebels have skill position talent – RB Tim Cornett returned a kick for a TD at Wassou last weekend, and senior WR’s Michael Johnson and Philip Payne can make plays downfield. Facing a suspect Hawaii defense, look for UNLV to get their fair share of points, sending this game Over the total. Take the Over.
Jim Feist
Arkansas State vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Arkansas State +24
Arkansas State (1-1) has a dangerous passing offense, one that averaged 254 yards and 30 points per game in 2010 and returns sophomore QB Ryan Aplin (21 TDs, 11 INTs in 2010). He is a dual threat who ran for 377 yards and 11 TDs. He played well against national champion Auburn in the opener last year, a 52-26 defeat and in a wild 36-34 loss at Indiana of the Big 10. Throw in senior running back Derek Lawson and senior wide receiver Dwyane Frampton, and Coach Hugh Freeze’s hurry-up offense is potent. Arkansas State opened with a 33-15 loss at Illinois despite almost 300 yards passing from Aplin. Then Aplin threw three touchdown passes in a rout of Memphis, 47-3. Aplin finished 19 of 21 for 274 yards passing. Virginia Tech is off an unimpressive 17-10 win over East Carolina, has a road game next week before the ACC schedule kicks in. The visitors have more than enough passing offense to hang within this big number. Play Arkansas State.
Tom Stryker
Kent State vs. Kansas State
Play: Kansas State -17½
Kansas State looked anemic offensively in its 10-7 season-opening home win over Eastern Kentucky. The Wildcats managed only 303 total yards on 77 plays and turned the ball over five times. KSU head coach Bill Snyder wasn’t pleased with that performance and you can bet your last dollar that he’ll have his Purple Cats ready to bring the pain here.
Technically speaking, this is a monster situation for K State. Since 1980, college football game two teams are a respectable 117-83-4 ATS provided they enter with rest and off a straight up win in their season opener. If our “play on” side is matched up against an opponent that arrives off a straight up loss, this system tightens up to a solid 47-28 ATS. With those two parameters applied and our side priced as a favorite of -16’ or more, this situation zips to a phenomenal 19-4 ATS!
Kent State is off to an 0-2 SU start thanks to losses to Alabama and Louisiana Lafayette. The Golden Flashes have struggled something fierce on the offensive side of the ball averaging just 138 yards per game. If it wasn’t for the seven takeaways on defense, Kent’s two blemishes could have be a lot worse than the finals indicated.
Outside of MAC play, the Golden Flashes have been in all kinds of trouble. Kent stands 3-12 SU and 2-10 ATS in non-conference action dating back to 2007 including 0-6 ATS in this situation coming off a straight up loss. Overall, Kent State is just 5-12 SU and 4-11-1 ATS in its last 17 battles.
The home versus road dichotomy may be too much for the Golden Flashes too. Inside Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Kansas State has been a monster priced as a home favorite of -11’ or more notching a powerful 36-18 ATS record including a money-making 24-10 ATS in this set coming off a straight up win. Meanwhile, since 2010, MAC road dogs priced at +14’ or more are a stiff 0-28 SU and 9-18-1 ATS in non-conference action.
Coach Snyder wasn’t pleased with his team’s offensive performance against Eastern Kentucky and this unit has something to prove on Saturday. As long as the Wildcats protect the football, they’ll be able to name the final against this struggling Kent State team. Take Kansas State!
Erin Rynning
Buffalo at Ball St
Play: Over 52
Buffalo head coach Jeff Quinn took over the Bulls program last year after serving as the offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bearcats and Brian Kelly. Remember that Bearcats offense? It was the epitome of quick hitting and up-tempo. Quinn unfortunately had a disaster of a time installing his scheme last year, or should I say the Bulls had a difficult time running the offense. The quarterback position was beyond brutal (think Carolina Panthers with Jimmy Clausen) as the Bulls averaged an awful 14.2 points per game. Much has changed with the Bulls since then including the transfer of former Bearcat quarterback Chazz Anderson. Anderson is talented and knows the offense. He's also a fifth-year senior who can help teach the offense to younger players. In their first game the Bulls tallied over 400 yards of offense against a real good Pitt defense. This Buffalo offense will be much improved and will find it easier getting the ball in the end zone against Ball State. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are going through a transition with new head coach Pete Lembo. Lembo's teams have loved to throw the football, while his former team Elon finished second in the FCS last year in passing yards. Last year, Elon threw the ball 453 times, while Ball State hurled the pigskin 309 times. True sophomore Keith Wenning is the real deal at the quarterback position and Buffalo, with just three starters back on defense, is a far cry from the South Florida offense they faced last week. The value is certainly there for us to play this game over the total.
Bryan Power
Michigan St. @ Notre Dame
PICK: Michigan St. +5
Notre Dame might just be the most overhyped team in the land. They certainly are the most frustrating. After losing outright to South Florida in the opener (23-20 as 10-point chalk, a game they outgained the opponent 508-254), the Irish were up to their 'old tricks' again last week failing at Michigan 35-31 as four-point favorites. For the second straight week, Notre Dame turned the ball over five times while outgaining its opponent and it also marked the third consecutive year that they lost to Michigan in the final 30 seconds of the game. This week, they welcome Michigan State to South Bend and this is the strongest foe they've faced yet. The Spartans are 12-4 ATS vs. the Irish, including 7-1 ATS here in South Bend since '92. Last year, they used a fake FG to prevail 34-31 as three-point chalk. With nine of the last 11 meetings in this series decided by single digits, including four of the last six by a FG or less, the points are an automatic take for me. That and the fact Notre Dame is a horrible 3-13 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons, including 1-8 ATS here at home.
Black Widow
1* on Nebraska -17
Nebraska beat Washington 56-17 last year during their regular season. They would face the Huskies again in the Holiday Bowl, and clearly did not show up because they did not want to be there after losing in the Big 12 Title game to Oklahoma. The Huskers lost 7-19 in that game and will be out for revenge this Saturday as these teams meet up for the third time in a year. It's evidant that Washington is not a quality team this season despite their 2-0 start. The Huskies should have lost to Eastern Washington in their opener after getting outgained 504-250, but took advantage of four turnovers and won 30-27. They also beat Hawaii 40-32 last week despite giving up 333 passing yards to the Warriors. Washington is +5 in turnovers in the early going, which is the only reason they are 2-0 when they could easily be 0-2. Nebraska is off to a solid start, outscoring Chattanooga and Fresno State by a combined 82-36. They are having no problem rushing the football, averaging 224 yards/game and 5.7/carry on the ground. The Huskies are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games following a ATS win. Nebraska is 20-4-1 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Nebraska and lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Navy +16.5
The Navy Midshipmen are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 road games, 41-17 ATS in their last 58 road games as an underdog, 22-7 ATS in their last 29 road games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Navy is a tremendous dog because of how well it runs the football. Expect S. Carolina and Navy to both eat a lot of clock with their ground games, which will make it very difficult for the Gamecocks to cover this hefty number. Take the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Oklahoma -3
The Sooners crushed the Seminoles by 30 points at home last year. This time the game will be played in Tallahassee, and the Noles will no doubt be motivated, but I like Oklahoma to prevail once again. The Sooners have had 2 weeks to focus solely on FSU. History tells us that's a big deal. Consider that OU is 13-3 under Bob Stoops when coming off a bye. Also, the Sooners have worn the target of being rated No. 1 well going an incredible 72-8 as the No. 1 team in the country. FSU is only 1-5 all-time versus No. 1 ranked foes. The Noles are closer to reemerging as a national power, but they aren't on par with the Sooners yet. OU is especially better where it matters most - the quarterback position. Landry Jones completed 30 of 40 passes for 380 yards with four touchdowns as the Sooners rolled up 487 yards on the Seminoles last year. Expect another big day from Jones to be the difference. We'll lay the points.
Steve Janus
Oklahoma Sooners -3
I don't think there is any doubt that the Florida State is a better team than they were a year ago when the Sooners crushed the Seminoles 47-17, but I don't think they are 27 points better even if they are playing at home this time around. Oklahoma simply has too much offensive fire power for the Seminoles to keep up, especially when Oklahoma's defense is more than capable of shutting down Florida State's offense. Florida State may keep this game close early, but I look for the Sooners to end up winning this game by at least 10 points on the road.
Oklahoma is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games in September, 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. BET OKLAHOMA!
Brad Diamond Sports
Penn St vs. Temple
Play: Penn St -9½
Back-to-back weeks in these pages we have forecasted Temple’s SU & ATS wins over 1-AA Villanova and Akron. Last week the Owls powdered the Zips behind RB Bernard Pierce who went for 150 yards on 18 carries all in the first-half generating a 28-3 lead on the way to an easy 41-3 final. One pedestrian note, the ZIPS ARE IN TROUBLE! This Saturday, the Owls take their home turf in Philadelphia against a Penn State team coming off a 27-11 thrashing by the #1 team in the country Alabama. With the Alabama loss the Lions fell out of the top-twenty. Not only was Penn State stymied by turnovers, the defense had given up scores in the red zone. The Alabama dominance at the line of scrimmage was evident throughout. Saturday is not only a huge affair for the Nits, but a recruiting trip into the talent filled tri-state area. You know, Paterno will want a rebound effort with some icing as all those soon to be Lions will be in the stands. Sure, the same goes for the Owls who will bring their local recruiting elite. Unfortunately for coach Addazio, Penn State is a HUGE MOVE UP IN CLASS. No doubt the Nits (versus Temple) played horribly in the early going last year, but held the Owls offense in check during the second-half on the way to a 22-13 win. But, we must note the Lions lackluster performance came before a REVENGE GAME with Iowa. Look for the Penn State defense to control the tempo of this encounter throughout in an easy 30-10 victory. In the series Penn State is 35-0-1 SU since 1943, but just 0-2 ATS in the last encounters. The Nittany Lions are 8-2 ATS off a double digit SU loss against a foe off a SU & ATS win. Back the Nits on Saturday afternoon.
Marc Lawrence
Louisville at Kentucky
Prediction: Louisville
As state rivalry games go, this one doesn’t get a lot of ink outside the Bluegrass State – but believe us when we tell you it’s a genuine hate-fest. That hate has been festering for four long years and the only thing U of L fans want is for Charlie Strong to channel Bobby Petrino and beat the stuffing out of the despised Wildcats. The visitors certainly have a good opportunity today: UK may be 2-0 SU on the year but they’ve lost both games ‘In The Stats’ not good news when you’re laying points into an embarrassed rival. Louisville ran over, under, around and through FIU last week (outgained the Golden Panthers 446-293) but the Cardinals fell into an early 21-3 hole from which they never escaped. The Redbirds bring a solid 7-3 SU and 10-1 ATS mark in road openers to Commonwealth Stadium and you can bet 2nd-year coach Strong is eager to make amends for a 23-16 setback in his debut game with the ‘Ville last season. Having dominated this series of late, the ‘Cats might actually find themselves sneaking a peek to next week’s SEC opener against Florida, a team that has pounded UK three straight times by an average score of 51-8. Play the Cards here. We recommend a 1-unit play on Louisville.
Michael Alexander
Penn State vs. Temple
Play: Penn State -7
PENN STATE is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite
TEMPLE is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten
PENN STATE is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home
Steve Merril
Penn State vs. Temple
Play: Temple +7
Temple has become a winning team the past two seasons, going 9-4 SU in 2009 and 8-4 SU last season in 2010. The Owls are also 2-0 ATS versus Penn State the past two seasons and Temple has an excellent chance of keeping this game close again this season and maybe pulling the outright upset. This is a possible letdown spot for Penn State after their loss versus Alabama last weekend. It was a physical game and now Penn State must go from being a double-digit home underdog to a full touchdown road favorite. It is hard to imagine Penn State will be as focused for this game after just playing Alabama, while it is a huge game for Temple. Temple has played well this season under new head coach Steve Addazio who was the former offensive coordinator at Florida. Temple has averaged 41.5 points per game and 445 total yards at 6.7 yards per play this season. Temple’s defense has been equally as impressive this year, allowing just 5.0 points per game and 272 total yards at 4.4 yards per play. Temple should be able to contain a Penn State offense that has struggled throwing the ball this season, averaging just 40.7% completions and just 4.4 yards per pass. Penn State has struggled recently against quality teams. In fact, the Nittany Lions are just 2-7 ATS since last year in games when they are laying -9 points or less or an underdog.
Hawaii vs. UNLV
Play: UNLV +18
UNLV was in a tough spot last week as they were coming off a physical nationally televised loss at Wisconsin on opening night. The Rebels then had to travel to Washington State who is an underrated team this season and the Cougars won easily 59-7. The situation is now more favorable for UNLV this week as they return home. We also get adjusted line value based on the back-to-back blowout losses. UNLV actually moved the ball well offensively at Wisconsin as the Rebels gained 292 total yards and scored 17 points against a solid Badger’s defense. UNLV should have more success tonight at home against a Hawaii defense that allowed 40 points and 466 total yards last week at Washington. Hawaii’s pass defense has been particularly weak this season, permitting 9.6 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 8.5 ypp). The Warriors have also been a weaker team on the road over the years when playing away from the Islands.
Rocketman
Northwestern vs. Army
Play: Northwestern -5
Northwestern comes in with a 2-0 record this year while Army is 0-2 on the season. Northwestern is scoring 33 points per game with their backup quarterback in the game. Northwestern is 8-3 ATS last 11 road games when playing against a team with a losing home record. Army is 17-35 ATS last 52 as a home underdog. Army is 1-10 ATS last 11 games at home when playing against a team with a winning road record. Kain Colter has shown me he can fill the shoes of Dan Persa in his absence. We'll recommend a small play on Northwestern today!