Rob Vinciletti
Oklahoma vs. Florida State
Play: Florida State +3.5
On Saturday the System club play has Florida St. From the ACC taking on the Big 12 Oklahoma Sooners. These two prolific teams met last year in Oklahoma and the result was a humiliating one for the Seminoles. They were pasted pretty good by the Sooners 47-17. The Sooners won the stats battle with 487 yards to 345 for the Seminoles. Oklahoma did most of their damage through the air in that one. The Seminoles get Oklahoma at home for the first time in a series where they have lost 5 of 6 all time. The Seminoles have 16 starters back from a 10-4 team and also return 50 lettermen. Oklahoma is also loaded bringing back 16 starters and 54 lettermen. They won their first game of the season handily over Tulsa 47-14 in a game where they amassed an amazing 663 yards on offense. In that game they did allow over 400 yards to Tulsa which is an unusually high number for them to allow at home. They do have the benefit of a bye week here for this one. Florida St beat up on Charleston South moving to 2-0 on the season. Moving on to a prediction for this one, we see some conflicting trends and a system that applies. Lets look at the system first. What we want to to do is play on home dogs of 8 or less that have a win percentage of .800 or higher, won 10 or more games last season and scored 30 or more in their last game. This system is 20-3 ats long term and just cashed last week with Auburn over Miss. St. The Problem for Florida St. is their horrendous 0-14 ats spread mark in home games after scoring 35 or more points in their previous game. They have won 8 of 10 straight up vs the Big 12 conference since 1992. Oklahoma is just 2-6 ats as road favorites the last 3 years but have covered the last 4 in their second game of the season. This game will be televised on ABC TV at 8:00 Eastern in a game that will draw plenty of interest since Oklahoma is ranked #1 and Florida St is ranked fifth. The Odds makers have The Sooners are 3 point favorite here in this one. In closing I look for a much closer game than last years game. This game should come down to whichever team executes the best late and has the least amount of turnovers. In closing we will lean with Florida St if we can more than a field goal.
Scott Rickenbach
UL Monroe @ TCU
PICK: Under 52.5
The Horned Frogs game against the Falcons last week snuck over the total when Air Force got two late TDs, including one at the final gun. That is helping to give us some line value with this total here as it's a little inflated. Note that TCU's defense will be fired up for their first home game this season and they are fully capable of shutting down the Warhawks. Note that UL-Monroe was shutout by Florida State in their season opener. The Warhawks are going to struggle to score points here. As for TCU, yes they will get their chances to put up some big points in this one but we look for more of a ground game, ball control offense from the Horned Frogs. TCU knows that if they play mistake-free on offense they will do just fine and that will be the emphasis for them in this one. UL-Monroe's defense does have some extra confidence coming into this one after shutting down Grambling last week. Yes, there is no real comparison between stopping TCU and stopping Grambling but confidence goes a long way for a team's defense and we just don't see the Horned Frogs having any motivation to try and run up the score here. Couple that with a line move here up above the 52 point and we decided to pull the trigger on this one as a Free Pick Opinion Play for Saturday. Look for the Horned Frogs to improve to 5-1 to the under in their last 6 home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in TCU on Saturday.
SPORTS WAGERS
ARIZONA +10 +100 over Stanford
Depending on where you shop, you’ll find different prices everywhere for this game. We see a +10 +100 at SIA, a +8½ at Pinnacle and a +9 at BET365 and that’s why it’s always good to have options. Of course we’ll take the best line and play it at Sportsinteraction. Stanford's strength lies with a backfield that returns Heisman finalist Andrew Luck, the team's top three running backs and a solid defense featuring several all-star candidates. But given heavy losses at offensive line, receiver and especially on the coaching staff, the Cardinal is overranked as a top-10 team. The team was sluggish in the first halves of games against San Jose State and Duke and the offense less dominant than the lopsided scores suggest. Stanford has the advantage in the trenches against an Arizona team that is rebuilding both lines, but Arizona quarterback Nick Foles has enough weapons at receiver to shoot it out with Luck and keep the Wildcats in the game. Expect a much better showing from the Arizona defense this week, along with more touches for dynamic freshman Ka'Deem Carey in an attempt to juice up a dormant running game. Mike Stoops is 10-1 against the spread at home against ranked teams since his first year at the helm. Stanford should be a lot better than Arizona at this stage of the season, but this is a bad spot for the Cardinal and the type of game in which the Wildcats typically thrive. Luck might have to direct a comeback for Stanford to get out of the desert unbeaten. Play: #185 Arizona +10 +100 (Risking 2 units).
CLEMSON –3 over Auburn
After watching Mississippi St. not being able to move five yards on LSU on Thursday night, Auburn’s 41-34 win over the Bullies last week suddenly doesn’t look so good. If that pedestrian MSU offense racked up 34 points on Auburn, it’s scary to think what Clemson will do. So, while Auburn was playing an intense-filled game against the Bulldogs last week, Clemson was playing a less focused game against Wofford. It was a close and scary call for the Clemson Tigers but they held on for a 35-27 victory and their focus will be 100 % better today. Auburn, which has been outgained by 234 yards so far, is still a rebuilding team that is bot close to being the 21 st ranked team in the nation. They’re getting way too much credit here against an offense that could absolutely tear them apart. This is the statement game for which Clemson has waited all offseason, and the host will not disappoint. Play: #110 Clemson –3 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Arkansas State +24 over VIRGINIA TECH
This is another case of a team being falsely ranked, as the Hokies come in #23 in the country after beating Appalachian State and East Carolina. Big deal. They barely got by the Pirates and there are at least 40 teams better than this one-dimensional club from Blacksburg. Va Tech has some more important fish to fry coming up. They play Marshall next week and then they open up ACC play. Virginia Tech could be caught napping and they can't fix their broken passing game in a week. Arkansas State is a senior-laden outfit that sports enough offensive playmakers to dent the scoreboard a few times, and a defensive front seven that won't get completely run over. The Red Wolves racked up over 600 yards last week on Memphis and while things get much tougher here, this game is a lot more interesting to the Red Wolves than it is to the Hokies. The Red Wolves hang around in this one. Play: #189 Arkansas St +24 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
EZWINNERS
Stanford Cardinals -9
Stanford’s quarterback Andrew Luck has put up some big numbers in the past against the Wildcats and I expect another strong performance from last season Heisman runner up in this game. Arizona has a pretty good quarterback as well in Nick Foles, but where the Wildcats lack that the Cardinals have is a running game to go along with the passing attack. Stanford racked up 205 rushing yards against Duke last week, while the Wildcats who currently are last in rushing in the Pac 12 conference could on manage 41 yards against Oklahoma State in their last game. Things don’t look to get much better on the ground for Arizona this week as Stanford currently has the second best rushing defense in the nation allowing just 28.5 yards per game. Without the ability to run the ball the Arizona offense becomes very predictable and this gives Stanford a huge advantage. The Cardinals are on a ten game win streak which is the fourth longest in school history and I expect them to roll in this game. Home underdogs of more than seven points are just 2-8 against the spread so far this season and I look for that trend to continue in this game. Lay the points.
Brandon Lee
Nevada vs. San Jose State
Play: Nevada -6
The Wolfpack are showing some excellent value on Saturday after getting crushed in their first game against Oregon. Nevada is considered to be the top team out of the WAC with Boise State out of the picture and should have no trouble winning this conference matchup. The Wolf Pack crushed the Spartans 35-13 last year. They did lose some big time offensive players, but are still talented enough to rack up the yards against San Jose State's defense. The Spartans have had a lot of trouble against Nevada's offense, allowing a season high yards against the Wolf Pack each of the last three years. Nevada is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Bob Balfe
Notre Dame -5 over Michigan State
Notre Dame is a good football team. There is no doubt about that. I have never seen a team have so many unforced errors to cost them games they dominated in. Michigan State is a very good football team ,but Notre Dame matches up very well against the Spartans who have a very young offensive line and a very young defensive line. This game will be won in the trenches which the Irish clearly are better in. Notre Dame has great offensive firepower. I expect them to come out strong and execute on offense. This game should be won by halftime if they can protect the ball. Take Notre Dame.
SPORTS WAGERS
SASKATCHEWAN –7½ over Toronto
Three weeks ago the Riders lost in Toronto and what followed that game was the firing of head coach Greg Marshall. In that game played in Toronto, Saskatchewan was down 21-1 going to the fourth and came up just short in the game’s final drive in a close 24-18 final. Also note that the Riders outgained the Argos by 219 yards. They dominated play but every call and every bounce went against them. The Roughriders woke up in the fourth quarter and they haven’t looked back since. They’re coming off back-to-back 20+ point wins over the Blue Bombers. They know they were the better team in Toronto against these Argonauts and they also know they were robbed of a victory by some questionable calls. That all changes here, as the resurgent Riders will show no mercy on the pathetic Argos. Steven Jyles looked lost last week against B.C. in his season debut. The Argos as a whole look lost. Now they’re being asked to travel out west in back-to-back weeks and for a team whose confidence is shot and whose morale is low, this is a daunting task. Losing takes a big toll and Toronto is lucky to have one win in its past nine games and we don’t have to repeat who that win came against. Play: Saskatchewan –7½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
CALGARY –4½ over B.C. Lions
We all saw what Edmonton did to Hamilton on two extra days of rest and those extra rest days should not be ignored. In this tilt, not only are the Stamps at home but they’ve had an extra day to prepare. Also note that while the Lions are on a roll with three straight wins, they came against the Argos the past two weeks and the then reeling Eskimos. Had this game been played before that easy trifecta, the Stamps would be about a 9-point choice here. Calgary has lost the last two home games to the Lions and they also lost their last home game against Edmonton two weeks ago. Expect the Stamps to be completely focused here in order to avoid a third straight loss at home to this intruder and a second straight home loss overall. The Lions are 4-6 on the year and frankly, they’ve yet to record a quality win all season. Aside from the three aforementioned wins, its other win came against the Riders when Saskatchewan couldn’t get out of their own way. Lions have proven nothing this season except that they can beat junk. Play: Calgary –4½ +102 (Risking 2 units).
BIG AL
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Kansas City Royals
The Royals have been a bit of a laughing stock in the American League for many years now, but that may change in the future, and it could actually be the near-future as well. The Royals feature some of the best young hitters in the game, with guys like Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, and Alex Gordon (not so young anymore I guess), but those hitters shouldn't negate the fact that the Royals have a few good young arms in their future as well. One of those is lefthander Everett Teaford, who was not that highly touted when the Royals chose him in the 12th round of the 2006 amateur draft, and truth be told, Teaford is actually a 27-year-old rookie, so although he may be inexperienced at the Major League level, he's had plenty of seasoning in the Minors. After going 14-4 in 2010 in stints at AA and AAA, the Royals figured he was ready to make his MLB debut this season, but KC did another smart thing in bringing him up originally as a reliever even though he was almost exclusively a starter in the Minors. That kind of patience on the part of the Royals is why they might be a team that does some damage next year, and also why Teaford may develop into a very nice southpaw, and there's no reason why he can't shine tonight in just his second start in the bigs. His first start was a beauty, as Teaford held the Mariners scoreless on just three hits over five innings while striking out five with just one walk. Take the Royals.
John Ryan
Auburn at Clemson
Prediction: Auburn
5* graded play on Auburn as they take on Clemson set to start at Noon ET. I also like taking the UNDER and would recommend a parlay as well playing Auburn and the ?under?. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by four or more points. I can remember in the 1990?s it was very difficult for any team to go into ?Death Valley? but that stigma has long since been removed. Don?t get me wrong though as any home ACC venue is a difficult spot for any team to enter and come away with a win. Auburn has truly surprised me in the first two games of the season. I had thought Mississippi State would waltz into Auburn and play with a nasty SEC tenacity and revenge years of losses to the Tigers. Instead, the tone was set early and the Auburn speed and athleticism on both sides of the ball was something that caught the Bulldogs by surprise. Granted, Bulldog quarterback Relf was stopped at the goal line to end the game, but Auburn came out played like a defending champion and not a team that was expected to be in a rebuilding year. The one thing that Auburn head coach Gene Chizik will be focused on this week is improved defensive play and communications. In Week 1 Auburn needed two touchdowns in the final 2:07 of the game to defeat a vastly inferior Utah State team. In his press conference he stated some powerful and tremendously motivating statements for his team. When asked if they were a great team being able to come back and win the first tow games in the exciting manner they did he responded with ?They are a young team. They want to be good. Are we a great football team right now? No. Not even close. But the identity of the team is starting to form week by week because they will fight?. Now, some coaches have used the media press conferences to challenge their players. Coach Cizek did that and served them with a huge compliment of being fighters. I?ll tell you right now those players will ?run through fire? if he asked them to. He has earned their respect and Auburn will only get better. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 70-28 for 71.4% winners since 1992. Play ?under? with any team against the total in a game involving two good teams outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yards per play in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This has been one of my best systems sporting a perfect 14-0 ?under? record spanning the last three seasons. Although there will be losing plays based on this system it has past the test of time and the dynamics of the college football game so do yourself a favor and use it for future qualifying plays. Take Auburn and the Under
Texas at UCLA
Prediction: Texas
5* graded play on Texas as they take on UCLA set to start at 3:30 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game by four or more points. Texas escaped with a 17-16 win over visiting BYU and did not cover the seven point spread. In light of that poor game, their has been a quarterback change for Texas and Casey McCoy will be under center when Texas takes on UCLA in Los Angeles. He is the younger brother of Colt McCoy who holds the NCAA record with 45 wins. Former starter Garrett Gilbert struggled again in his second game and was removed after going 2-8 with two interceptions. When McCoy entered the game the entire body language of the Texas offense changed for the better and I fully expect a greater move forward in this game. Texas was ranked No.7 with a 3-0 record before losing at home to UCLA 34-12 and were installed as 16 point favorites. I must admit, I will always remember this game as one of my premium winning plays from last season, but the evidence was there even then that Texas was vastly over rated. Texas then went on a horrid 2-7 stretch the rest of the season. Now, they are ranked No. 23 and have an opportunity avenge last years horrid loss to the Bruins and certainly move up the national rankings as there will be several ranked teams that will lose their road game tests Saturday. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-8 ATS mark for 79% winners and has made 21.2 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play on any team that is an average offensive team scoring between 21 to 28 points per game and facing a good offensive team scoring 28 to 34 points per game and after scoring and allowing 17 points or less points. Most impressive with this system is that 21 of these plays or 54% covered the spread by seven or more points. This system has also produced a 16-4 ATS record over the past three seasons. The simulator shows a very high probability that Texas will score a minimum of 28 points and will rush for 200 to 250 yards. In past games where Texas has achieved these levels of solid offensive performance they are 102-50 ATS making 47.0 units per one unit wagered when they score 28 or more points since 1992; 26-9 ATS making 16.1 units per one unit wagered when they rush for 200 to 250 yards since 1992. Moreover, UCLA is 0-8 ATS losing 8.8 units per one unit wagered when they allow 28 or more points over the last two seasons.
SPORTS WAGERS
lorida +210 over WASHINGTON
This price is bordering on insanity. At best, Stephen Strasburg goes five innings and that’s if he’s under 70-75 pitches. Strasburg is as good as they say he is. However, the Nats are slowly bringing him along and in no way will they stretch out or overwork their prized possession in a completely meaningless game. Strasburg goes four innings here and at the very most five. Chris Volstad is being overlooked big time and his skill growth in August shows why. In four August starts covering 23.1 frames, Volstad struck out 23. He also had a fantastic groundball rate of 60% over that span. That strikeout rate + 60% GB% is a combination you won't find many places. A crazy 36% HR/fly produced his 5.01 misleading ERA for the month. There remains a lot of profit potential here because nobody has noticed Volstad and against this team in this spot, he and the Fish offer up some tremendous value. Play: Florida +210 (Risking 2 units).
COLORADO –1½ +165 over San Francisco
Eric Surkamp has started three games since being called up and the Giants have won all three. In fact, Surkamp is 2-0 in those three games with an ERA of 3.24. Now comes the fluke alert. Surkamp has faced the Padres twice and the Astros once with two games being at A T & T Park and the other being at Petco. That's three huge pitcher parks and not only did Surkamp allow 18 hits in 16 innings for a BAA of .290 but he also walked five batters while whiffing just six. Surkamps’s fastball only sits between 85-90 mph and he’s a fly-ball pitcher. Given his lack of velocity, he has little margin for error and he’s about to get a serious dose of reality when facing these Rockies at Coors. Despite undergoing an appendectomy in late August, Drew Pomeranz was called up to make his debut last week against the Reds. He went five innings and allowed two hits and zero runs. Pomeranz was acquired from the Indians at the deadline. He’s a tall and very projectable lefty who has moved through the minors quickly on the basis of his lively 90-95 mph fastball and plus, power curveball. Pomeranz locates his fastball to both sides of the plate and has the secondary offerings to miss bats. The Rockies are likely to limit his innings the rest of the season but Pomeranz is one of the top prospects in baseball and should compete for a job in Spring Training '12. Having said that, this one is all about the Rocks going to town off the stiff they’ll be facing. Eric Surkamp is not even really a prospect, he's filling in for Barry Zito. Play: Colorado –1½ +165 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Jake Ellenberger +165 over Jake Shields
This is a welterweight battle between two wrestlers that will use very different strategies. Shields is possibly the best all around grappler in MMA in that he has a solid base of American wrestling and is also a Carlson Gracie BJJ black belt. Not only does Shields have the chops to submit anyone when the fight hits the mat he also has the wrestling to get the fight there. However Shields hasn't exactly looked like a world-beater in the UFC's welterweight division getting dominated by George St. Pierre and squeaking out a split decision victory over Martin Kampmann. Shields has also had cardio issues at this weight before and says he feels much more comfortable at middleweight, as evidenced by his biggest career victory to date over Dan Henderson. Like Shields, Ellenberger has a solid wrestling base but will use it to keep this fight standing where he will have a big advantage over Shields with his heavy hands. Ellenberger has ended 15 of his 24 victories by KO and also has a strong chin that will withstand anything Shields throws at him. While Shields hasn't been KO'd for 11 years, Ellenberger can keep this fight standing and do enough damage to win by decision or knockout. Play: Jake Ellenberger +165 (Risking 2 units).
Zelg Galesic +225 over Alexander Schlemenko
Galesic is being way undervalued here due to being unknown in North America to everyone but hardcore MMA fans. Galesic is a very well-rounded fighter who can win a fight on his feet or on the mat. While Schlemenko is the rightful favorite due to his edge in experience with his 47 fights to Galesic's 15 and also his five fights under the Bellator banner, the oddsmakers are giving Galesic no respect here. If this fight goes to a decision anything could happen, as judging in combat sports is never a sure thing. Galesic gets the call based on value alone and he’s in it to win it. Play: Zelg Galesic +225 (Risking 2 units).
Jimmy Moore
Stanford @ Arizona
Pick: Arizona +9
Arizona is 17-1 ATS in conference play when playing with revenge and 9-0 ATS as home dogs of more than a field goal. Pretty srong trends here. Also remember Stanford may be a bit travel weary off of their last week game at Duke. Take the points.
David Banks
Oklahoma / Florida State Over
This week’s national spotlight tussle takes college football fanatics to Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, FL where the 5th ranked Florida State Seminoles will look to avenge the beating they absorbed in Norman from the #1 ranked Oklahoma Sooners last season; the live telecast is set to begin at 8:00 ET on ABC.
Coach Bob Stoops’ top ranked outfit has had two weeks to prepare for this grudge match after taking the first of the season’s two bye’s last week. Boomer Sooner simply picked apart what is a top notch outfit out of CUSA in the Tulsa Golden Hurricane back in Week 1. QB Landry Jones played the part of a Heisman hopeful completing 35 of his 47 passes for 375 yards and a score with his favorite target, WR Ryan Broyles, on the receiving end of 14 passes for 158 yards and a TD. RB Dominique Whaley made the OU faithful quickly forget about former RB DeMarco Murray by chewing up 131 yards and crossing the goal line four times. Though the defense gave up 400 yards of combined yardage, it only allowed Tulsa to put 14 points on the board. The pointspread win improved the Sooners to 5-1 ATS their L/6 dating back to last season.
The first year of the Jimbo Fisher regime went down as a success as the Seminoles went 10-4 SU and capped the year off with an outright win as three-point underdogs against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the Chick-fil-a Bowl. With 16 starters back overall (8 on both sides of the ball), the ‘Noles are expected to make some major noise in the ACC and possibly vie for a chance of playing in the BCS Championship Game. The defense pitched a shutout of UL-Monroe in the season opener, and then went through the motions in a 62-10 demolition of Charleston Southern last week. The offense is now under the guidance of Jr. QB E.J. Manuel whose averaging 8.42 yards per pass and sports a 6/2 TD/INT ratio. Though his interception last week led to the Buccaneers lone TD, the defense only allowed a combined 84 yards overall. The unit currently ranks amongst the top 16 in total yards (137.5), passing yards (77.5), rushing yards (60) and points allowed per game (5), though tonight’s opponent will be its first real test.
There’s was a ton of hype surrounding last year’s match-up in Norman, but the game quickly got out of hand. Due to QB Christian Ponder’s pathetic display, the Seminoles found themselves on the short end of the 47-17 beat down. FSU is 0-2 SU & ATS against Oklahoma in the recent series. The Sooners have been a terrible investment in this situation going 1-5 ATS their L/6 as road chalk and 4-6-1 ATS their L/11 non-conference match-ups. The Seminoles counter with a poor 4-9-2 ATS tally their L/15 at home, but stand 6-4 SU & ATS the L/10 times they went off the board decided underdogs; the ‘over’ is 11-3 their L/14 as dogs as well.
DON WALLACE SPORTS
NAVY vs SOUTH CAROLINA
Take: NAVY +18.5
Analysis: The No. 10 South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0) will face the Navy Midshipmen (2-0) in their 2011 home opener Saturday night at Williams Brice Stadium in Columbia, SC. The Gamecocks are coming off of a thrilling 45-42 win at rival Georgia to put themselves in first place in the SEC Eastern Division. This is the first time since the 2000-01 seasons that South Carolina has defeated Georgia in back-to-back seasons. South Carolina will be looking to use the momentum that they've built with consecutive wins away from home to start the season to open their 2011 home schedule with a win against a Navy team that runs a very efficient triple option offense. Head Coach Steve Spurrier knows what Navy is capable of and was quick to point out that they are one of the best independent football programs in the country in his weekly press conference of Tuesday. Navy might be as good an independent school as there is in the country, Spurrier said. They won 10, nine and eight games the last three years. I think they beat Notre Dame a couple of times. They're leading the nation in rushing offense right now. They run the triple option with fullback, quarterback and pitch guys so we'll have our hands full slowing down these guys. If Carolina wants to win this game, they will need a gameplan to stop Navy's triple option. The Navy rushing attack has proven difficult to stop in previous years and this year is no exception. QB Kriss Proctor has rushed for 199 yards and three touchdowns in his first two appearances this year, while RB Alexander Teich has rushed for 167. Carolina's front seven needs to have a plan of attack that will neutralize Navy's running game, and force them to throw the ball, which they rarely do. Its no secret that this service academy travels well. Navy is 23-9 ATS on the highway since 2002. After two emotionally charged finishes on the road, I dont expect The Gamecocks to be completely focused for this one. NAVY 28 SOUTH CAROLINA 45
RICK NEEDHAM
Michigan State at Notre Dame
Here’s The Deal … There’s no way this can live up to the precedent. It just can’t. It’s asking for too much. Notre Dame has been the story of 2011 so far, with an offensive explosion counterbalanced by fatal, disastrous moments turning a team good enough to be 2-0 and in the hunt for a BCS game into a hot mess thanks to ten turnovers, 17 penalties, and inexplicable defensive lapses. Head coach Brian Kelly got in trouble for a red-faced tantrum in the loss to South Florida, he made a major quarterback change, and the pressure is tightening on a team that’s within an eyelash of being unbeaten. So far, though, all that matters is that the Irish are 0-2. From South Florida’s defensive stops with its back against the wall, to Denard Robinson’s magic in an all-timer of a night game last Saturday night, it’s been a wild ride so far, and if recent history against Michigan State is any indication, it’s about to get a whole lot bumpier. The Spartans have had Notre Dame’s number winning ten of the last 14 matchups, but four of the last six game were decided by three points and 11 of the last 13 have been decided by a touchdown or less. As good as the rivalry has been, and as classic as some of the games were, nothing topped last season’s 34-31 Michigan State win, complete with a fake field goal for the win and followed up by Spartan head coach Mark Dantonio’s heart scare. After the 2010 game, and with the way Notre Dame played in Ann Arbor, can this be anything less than another must-see all-timer? Again, it’s asking for too much. What it will be, though, is a possible season-definer.
Notre Dame can’t lose. A case could be made that it’s the best 0-2 team in the country, and with a not-that-bad schedule until the regular season finale at Stanford, a win for the Irish this week might start a run that could change everything around in a hurry. No matter what happens against the Spartans, the Irish should be favored in every game up until the battle against the Cardinal. Michigan State hasn’t generated any noise yet, partly because the last time it was on a national stage it was obliterated by Alabama in the Capital One Bowl, and partly because the first two games were against Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic. However, the Spartans have been dominant with a defense that hasn’t allowed a thing and a dangerous offense that’s doing whatever it wants. How strong has the defense been? FAU came up with one first down last week – one – failing to convert on any of its ten chances and finishing with 26 yards passing and 22 rushing. Michigan State is loaded and ready to show that it deserves to be in the discussion of top Big Ten teams, and Notre Dame is ready to come up with a win to let everyone around the program exhale. Go ahead. Demand yet another thrilling classic. These two know how to do it.
Why Michigan State Might Win: One. That’s how many turnovers Michigan State has committed so far, giving up just one fumble against Youngstown State. The Notre Dame turnover problems will stop at some point, and MSU doesn’t have the make-up to start screwing up enough to make a difference. This is a smart, veteran team that did a great job of hanging on to the ball throughout last year and will be ultra-stingy again when it comes to giving the ball away. It’s possible the Spartans can simply hold serve and keep it close throughout, and then wait for Notre Dame to implode. The bigger issue for the Irish could be a shaky secondary that broke down way too often against Michigan. Denard Robinson only completed 11 of 24 passes, but he made the plays through the air when he had to thanks to poor positioning and lousy technique from the Irish defensive backs. It’ll be a whole different ball game this week against MSU’s Kirk Cousins, who unlike Robinson, doesn’t have to rely on lobbing the ball up in the air to make the passing game go. Michigan might have tremendous talent, but Michigan State has a better overall offense with the balance to hit the Irish defense in a variety of ways.
Why Notre Dame Might Win: The Michigan State offensive line is just okay, it’s not great. The pass protection has been fine so far and the running game has worked, but that’s because of the competition. Lost in the last two games was an Irish defense that did a great job against the run, holding Michigan to 114 yards with Robinson ripping off 108 of them. South Florida only gained 126 yards and struggled to break off any big dashes, averaging just three yards per carry. The Irish defensive front has been more than fine, but it hasn’t been noticed because of the brilliance of Robinson and all the problems on the Notre Dame offense. But the offense is fine. Several of the mistakes have come from a lack of timing and a lack of polish, and many of the turnovers won’t be made in a few weeks; it might have taken the first two games to get rid of all the yips. South Florida’s defense is athletic and talented, and Notre Dame had no problems going up and down the field against it. Michigan’s defense might be questionable, but it’s full of experience and is ultra-aggressive, and the Irish came up with 315 yards through the air and 198 on the ground. Michigan State hasn’t seen this type of offense yet and needs to be prepared to get into a firefight.
What To Watch Out For: Lost in the brilliance of the Michigan game was a phenomenal performance by Cierre Wood, the Irish back who tore off 134 yards and a touchdown after rumbling for 104 yards and a score against USF. The junior was a superstar recruit who could’ve gone anywhere after rushing for over 4,000 yards and 54 touchdowns in his final two years of high school, and now he’s starting to play up to his potential. With a great blend of speed and power, he became a key part of the attack over the second half of last year, and now he’s thriving. Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd has been unstoppable over the first two games with 25 catches for 313 yards and two scores, but Michigan State has a playmaking receiver of its own who’s ready for the national stage. Senior B.J. Cunningham was terrific in last year’s win over the Irish, catching seven passes for 101 yards and a touchdown, after catching seven passes for 74 yards in the 2009 loss. The 6-2, 223-pounder is big, isn’t afraid to get physical, and has the wheels to get deep when needed. He’s also a rock-steady No. 1 target with 14 catches for 203 yards and a score to start the season.
BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The slide will stop. Michigan State will come up with the takeaways needed to make the Irish sweat, and it has the defensive line to wreak havoc, but finally, the turnovers will slow down. Notre Dame will give up a couple of mistakes, but it won’t turn it over five times like it has over each of the last two games and that’ll make all the difference. Irish quarterback Tommy Rees and Cousins will each throw for over 300 yards, and it’ll be a shootout and a typical tight game between the two teams. The one with the ball last will win. I'll TAKE NOTRE DAME to win and "Beat The Spread!