Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 18,2010

Bryan LeonardFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Eastern Michigan Eagles +9
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We continue to see this but the linesmaker continues to ignore it. Losing an elite quarterback to the NFL results in an initial major setback to a college football program. It's happened this year in Texas, Florida, Notre Dame and Oklahoma and the most glaring drop-off could be in Mt. Pleasant as Dan LeFevour is no longer under center for the Chippewas. LeFevour may not have gotten the national pub as the Heisman Trophy hopefuls as previously mentioned but he's now playing on Sundays, at least holding a clipboard. The youngster set all kinds of passing records for Central and now after first entering play against Boston College as a freshman he's no longer on the sidelines.
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The Chippewas averaged 33.9 points per game a season ago and after two games they are at 21.5 ppg and that includes as overtime game. One of the opponents was FCS opponent Hampton. This is a sandwich situation for Central as they are just off an overtime loss to projected league champion Temple with a trip to Northwestern on deck. We are all well aware of the last time the Chippewas headed to Big Ten country as they upset Michigan State at this time last year 29-27 in an exciting finish. Now they must face league doormat Eastern Michigan who they beat 56-8 a season ago.
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The Eagles of Eastern Michigan entered this season off a winless 2009. They were outscored by 21.9 ppg a year ago in Ron English's first season. And while they enter this game on a 14 game losing streak this club is now playing respectable football. They easily covered their first two games dropping 4 and 7 point decisions to Army and Miami Ohio. They always get up to face their big instate rival Central Michigan, in fact, they have upset them 2 of the last 3 years getting double digits both times. The three years prior all went into overtime.
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Central Michigan ran for just 1.3 yards per carry against Temple and without a decent running game they won't be able to attack through the air. The loss of LeFevour hurts tremendously not only on the field but in the locker room. This spread is simply too high as these two squads go in opposite directions.

Tom StrykerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Play: Florida Gators -14
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After knocking the snot out of UT Martin 50-0 in its season opener, Tennessee was quickly brought back to reality last Saturday when Oregon visited Neyland Stadium and smashed the Vols 48-13! UT did have success running the football against the Ducks. Unfortunately, the Volunteers couldn’t convert on third-downs and UO quickly ripped off 45 unanswered points!
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Florida returned to form last week when it steamrolled a pretty good South Florida bunch 38-14 and the Gators will look to keep things rolling against a team they love to beat. UF owns a solid 16-6 SU and 13-8-1 ATS record in this series an UT. Also, in road openers, Florida has been outstanding notching a strong 20-9-1 SU and 20-10 ATS record including an impressive 14-5-1 SU and 16-4 ATS in this role coming off a non-conference affair.
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Tennessee has won a bunch a games straight up in Knoxville (45-18 SU to be exact in its last 63) but the Vols haven’t produced much profit against the spread posting a dismal 24-38 ATS record. UT has been at its worst in this role too when tackling a foe that checks in with momentum off a straight up win – now 10-25 ATS!
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It’s hard to ignore the fact that Florida has posted a remarkable 66-15 SU and 44-30-3 ATS record in its last 81 games including a sensational 31-15-2 ATS in this role entering with momentum off a blowout win of 10 points or more. Gators head coach Urban Meyer didn’t like what he saw in a season-opening victory over Miami. Coach Meyer corrected the problems and his troops made huge strides in their second game against the Bulls. UF will take another leap up the improvement ladder with a decisive victory here! Take Florida!

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3* on Alabama -23.5
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Reasons Alabama covers:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (ALABAMA) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. This is a 23-2 ATS System hitting 92% over the last 10 seasons. Alabama is the real deal this season and Duke stands no chance of keeping this game close. Bet Alabama on the road.

Craig TrappFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Washington Huskies
Play: Nebraska Cornhuskers -3
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If you listened to any of the radio show appearances Craig gave away NEB as his surprise team to win the BIG 12 this year. So far they have not disappointed as this defense shows its strength. Plus the offense is much more explosive than last year. Washington on the other hand looks to be the same team as 2009, great offense terrible defense. Yes WASH is at home where they play better, but they still don't have the speed or talent on defense to stop a much better NEB team. Look NEB to pull away with some turnovers in the 2nd half.

Carlo CampanellaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kent State vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -21
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Penn State's offense is now led by freshman QB Robert Bolden. Bolden looked good in their 44-17 season opening victory in an unlined game against Youngstown State. It was a little quick to throw him to the wolves last Saturday when playing on the road against the defending national champions, Alabama, who possibly owns the best defensive unit in the country. Penn State didn't perform that bad, as the offensive line didn't allow Alabama to sack QB Bolden even once in his 29 attempts, while he completed 13 of 29 passes for 144 yards. Penn State returns home to host an outgunned Kent State squad that has allowed 474 passing yards in their first 2 games, against Murry State and Boston College. HC Paterno will use last week's tough loss to teach QB Bolden to be a better college quarterback, and things will only get easier in front of their home fans while taking a huge drop in class against Kent State. With Head Coach Joe Paterno is 17-8 ATS at home following a road loss, expect the Lions to turn things around this Saturday

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San Diego State Aztecs vs. Missouri Tigers
Play: Missouri Tigers -13½
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The Aztecs must be feeling pretty good having started out 2-0 for the first time since 2004. However, they have a different animal to deal with in this one heading to Missouri. San Diego State hasn't posted a winning season since the Mountain West Conference came into being in 1999. Their wins over Nicholls State and New Mexico State really don't tell us anything. And, this team is 1-10 ATS on the road after a road win and 6-21 ATS after back-to-back wins. Missouri is flying well under the radar hiding under Oklahoma and Texas, but rest assured they are in the hunt for the Big-12 title. This is a team that has recruited very well. With eight back on both sides of the ball, and the rest of the conference a shade beneath last year, it is time to rise and shine for the Tigers. The Aztecs have ventured out and played five teams from BCS Conferences over the last five years and have yet to come within 14 points of any of them. The Tigers are a far superior team. Due to their below-the-radar status, and San Diego State's 2-0 start, we are getting value here on this line as Missouri should be laying closer to 20.

Tony StoffoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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BYU vs. Florida State
Play: Florida State -9.5
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After being embarrassed big time on national TV by Oklahoma. I look for the Seminoles to bounce back in a big way here against a BYU squad that they dominate in every position on the field. A much less Florida State team went to BYU early last season and destroyed the Cougars scoring 54 points. In this game quarterback Christian Ponder went 21-26 for 200 yards, and the ground attack dominated the BYU front by rushing for 313 and a 6.4 APR. I definitely look for more of the same here with this highly motivated and inspired Seminoles squad. So let's lay the number as Florida State comes away with the big win and spread cover in this spot.

Hollywood SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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UNLV at IdahoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: IdahoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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UNLV's offense continued to struggle last Saturday as they failed to score a touchdown in their 38-10 loss to Utah. While the Rebels did score off a blocked punt, the rest of their special teams play was horrific with a fumbled punt, a snapped-ball over their punter's head, a 77-yard TD punt return and a holding penalty to nullify their own 90-yard kickoff return. At 0-2 and an unsettled quarterback situation, UNLV is at risk of losing their season as they travel to Idaho. The Vandals (1-1) come off a 38-17 loss to Nebraska (as a 27.5-point dog) where they turned the ball over six times whole getting sacked seven time. But the Idaho defense had their moments as they forced four Cornhuskers' turnovers. Returning home, expect four-year starting QB Nathan Enderle to bounce-back with a better performance. And the Vandals have covered 7 of their last 8 games coming off a point-spread win. Take Idaho minus the points.

Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Hawaii @ Colorado
Pick: Colorado -12
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Hawaii faces a challenge in having to play its second straight game away from home. Road trips for the Rainbows are particularly difficult considering that they must travel to the mainland to find competition. The 1:30 PM local start in Boulder is four hours ahead of Hawaii time which means this Hawaii team will feel like it is playing at 9:30 in the morning. Then again, the Rainbows may not know what time zone they are in, as they played at West Point a week ago Saturday, traveled West to spend the early part of this week in Las Vegas and then flew to Boulder. Hawaii's travel schedule in and of itself should give Colorado a big advantage. Hawaii was able to gain almost 600 total yards and score 36 points in its season-opening 49-36 loss to USC. However, after the Trojans struggled to defeat a suspect Virginia team last week, that performance does not look nearly as impressive. Hawaii traveled to face Army last week and escaped with a 31-28 victory. Led by QB Bryant Muniz, the Rainbows were able to pass for 343 yards. However, the problem for Hawaii is the running game. The Rainbows don't have one of their own and they can't stop the opposition from running the ball. The Rainbows gained only 10 rushing yards against Army while letting the Cadets accumulate 250 yards rushing yards. The Black Knights used this formula to limit the Hawaii passing attack by keeping the Rainbows off the field for almost 38 minutes in that game. USC was able to rush for 246 yards while totaling 524 total yards the week before against the Hawaii 'D.' This is the formula for success for the Buffaloes. I look for Dan Hawkins to use the clock and run the football with RB Rodney Stewart who has 147 yards so far this season after gaining over 800 yards last year. QB Tyler Hansen threw three interceptions in the Buffaloes' 52-7 loss to California but the Hawaii defense is not nearly as talented as the Golden Bears.' Stewart's ability to run the ball will open things up for Hansen which will put him in a better position to succeed with an offense that returns eight starters from last season (as well as four of their top five wide receivers). However, I believe it is the Colorado defense which will make the difference in this game. This unit gave up only 356 total yards against California last week. It was five turnovers that did the Buffaloes in, helping the Golden Bears seize a 31-0 halftime lead which took Colorado out of its running game. In the first week of the season, Colorado's defense was impressive by holding its in-state rival (Colorado State Rams) to just 245 total yards. Hawaii's lack of offensive balance will limit its effectiveness in this spot. In all, Colorado should respond well to this challenge. They Buffs have covered the pointspread in six of their last seven games when they are rebounding off a loss. The Buffaloes have also covered the spread in five of their last six games at home. There will be less pressure on the offense in this game which should minimize turnovers. Hawkins will implement the Army game plan against Hawaii but see better results with it for his team, given his better athletes who are battle-tested from its Big 12 schedule. While Hawaii is a dangerous opponent at home, the Rainbows are a team I tend to avoid when they have to go on the road. The running game will make the difference in this match up and the edge goes to Colorado. Lay the points.

Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Maryland @ West Virginia
PICK: West Virginia -10
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Last weekend I released Oklahoma on these pages, citing big-time line value due to overreaction to a one game performance as a key reason. When this particular game opened, WVU was installed as a 13 1/2 point favorite. At the time of this release, they're down to 10. Again, I have to go against the line move. I like the grit and determination we saw from QB Geno Smith and the Mountaineers during their late-game run to send their contest with Marshall into overtime. WVU scored on a pair of 90-plus yard TD drives in the final quarter. Smith is connecting on over 70% of his passes and has both Austin and Sanders to go to through the air. And of course, the ground attack is solid once again. Maryland did beat Navy in their opener, but they were outgained, 485-272. In fact, the Terps finished with just 11 FDs to 26 for the Midshipmen. Maryland has just five starters back on defense and needed some luck to get by the Academy. I believe their luck runs out against the Mountaineers. Maryland's 2-0 start comes to an end. I'm laying the points with West Virginia on Saturday.

JR O'DonnellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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UTEP -14.5 vs New Mexico St.
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This week is a power rating bomb as we have the Miners @ - 20.... Wow, we are super high on Qb Tevor Vittatoe who is at the controls for the Miners, he has hung up close to 80 touchdowns and over 9800 yards, Are you kidding me? A flat out stud from Trinity Hs in Texas vs. the poor Aggies D. Rz will have no problem laying the lumber on Saturday. Let's knock out the book on Saturday night as the points will not be factor here. The Utep Miners were run out of the building vs. Houston last game and the T. Vittatoe show will put that L in the rear view mirror. All we need to say is "BLOW OUT" Saturday night! Miners 5-2 off a Ats loss, Boys they are hungry!

BettorsworldFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado -12 over Hawaii
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Timing is everything with betting college football. Getting the best number on your wagers is crucial to your long term success which is why we cringe every time we release a game where we are not getting the best number. Such is the case here. We hope we didn't miss the boat here. Colorado opened as a 13.5 point favorite at bookmaker.com, the first sportsbook to post lines each week. The game was bet down to -10 in a matter of minutes. Someone felt they posted a bad number.
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But we think the book had it right. This line dropped all the way to as low as -9.5 before it started to climb back. We we're going to release the game at -11 but the game got popped again pushing to -12 and -12.5. At this number, we're still ahead of the opener, but not the best we could have done. Certainly when there is a 10 involved, you want to act. a 10 point win is a push for some and a win for anyone who took the -9.5 while everyone else loses. We hope that's not the case here. We think this game could be a blow out. Here's why.
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Colorado has some talent. We know that much. There is just a natural talent gap between these two programs. Hawaii had some good years but those days are long gone. Colorado has the talent but hasn't been able to produce under Dan Hawkins. They are in off a horrendous performance last week, turning the ball over 5 times while getting blown away by Cal 52-7. This is a veteran Colorado team that isn't as bad as they looked last week, giving us some added value.
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Dan Hawkins is already in trouble at Colorado. Most agree, the only reason he is still there is because Colorado couldn't afford to buy out his contract. It doesn't get any easier after this game. In fact, this is without a doubt the easiest game left on the Colorado schedule. Losing isn't an option here. Winning the game by a few points or a touchdown also isn't an option. Not if Hawkins wants to keep his job.
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This is Colorado's first home game of the season. They catch a very poor Hawaii team in off a game they were lucky to win in the closing minute against Army. Hawaii led the game 21-7 in the first half but Army scored 4 unanswered touchdowns to take the lead before Hawaii was able to tie and then kick a winning field goal off an Army fumble. Oh, and Hawaii had a total of 10 yards on the ground.
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Hawaii had to fly 5000 miles to play that Army game. They then flew across country again, though didn't go all the way back to Hawaii. They spent the week in Vegas where they practiced this week. Now they have to play Colorado. Altitude will be a factor. Remember, this team tired in the 2nd half last week. Imagine what playing at a mile high will do? They catch a Colorado squad in off an embarrassing loss, with a coach on the hot seat, in their first home game of the year..........it's just a very bad spot for Hawaii. Food for thought. Can you imagine what the line would have been had Colorado played respectably last week? Built in value as a result of last weeks performance. This one has ROMP written all over it. For Dan Hawkins case, (and ours) that better be the case.
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Clemson +7 over Auburn
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We simply see some value with the Clemson side here. Clemson, as Auburn, is always going to draw some talent. They win 9+ games most years and sport a pretty good defensive unit. They lost 3 wide receivers and of course CJ Spiller, which is big, but their defense keeps them in this one. Their claim to fame last year was staying close to Alabama. Otherwise we see losses to Arkansas, Kentucky, LSU and Georgia and narrow wins over the likes of Tennessee and Northwestern. Mediocre teams. We feel we're dealing with two teams of similar talent here making the TD attractive.

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs
Pick: Baylor Bears
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TCU is one of the best teams in the nation and the three touchdown spread doesn’t seem to be scaring the public away. The majority of wagers have come in on the home team which comes as no surprise as the favorites are the ones getting the looks most of the time. I could see this number being put down against a bottom-tiered team from the Big XII but not one that is going to be going to a bowl game. The Horned Frogs had better be ready because this is not a Baylor team it can tale lightly. Baylor has not had a winning season since 1995 and has not gone to a bowl game since 1994 but this is the year that it changes. The Bears are off to a 2-0 start and even though the wins have come against FCS San Houston St. and Buffalo, the wins have been impressive. They are one of only three teams that have not allowed a touchdown through two games (Alabama and Arizona) and while the schedule is the reason for that, playing defense like that against any team is impressive. The Horned Frogs need to be concerned about Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III because he is the type of quarterback that can actually flourish against the aggressive TCU defense. Griffin was injured in the third game of the 2009 season and missed the final nine games last year with a torn ACL. This year he is ranked 13th in total offense and can make plays with his arm and his feet. Because TCU leaves it corners on an island, if Griffin can avoid sacks, he can make some plays downfield. TCU may be better off allowing him to step up and make throws as opposed to breaking containment off the tackles and run wherever he wants as he’s as dangerous as any player in the open field. The Horned Frogs defense is as good as it gets so Baylor definitely needs to execute as it is not going to get anything given to them. Pr maybe they will. “We've had three bad practices this week,” TCU head coach Gary Patterson said. “No enthusiasm.” Apparently, the Bears are not being taken seriously. As mentioned, the Bears defense has been rock solid thus far. TCU has a very veteran offense led by senior Andy Dalton but he has not been as sharp as many had expected. Dalton is ranked 55th in total offense and 54th in passing efficiency in the country and those are pretty average rankings for a four-year starter. The Bears will need to pressure Dalton and keep him from being able to make positive yardage out of busted plays as he has the ability to use his feet as well. Baylor is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a winning record and it is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against teams coming off a double-digit victory while going 8-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog. TCU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference games. 3* Baylor Bears

Doug UpstoneFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Duke Blue Devils
Play: Alabama Crimson Tide -23½
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Both Alabama and Utah have looked phenomenal on offense to start the season, with Crimson Tide averaging 7.8 yards per play and the Utes 6.7 YPP. Besides the obvious talent on hand, these units returned a great deal of experience which leads to continuity. Both these 2-0 teams are big road favorites but our Saturday system shows betting on these kinds of clubs should not be a fearful wager.
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Play On favorites of 21.5 to 31 points, after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in two consecutive games, returning eight or more offensive starters, including the quarterback. This system is grandiose 23-2 ATS, 92% (25-0 SU) and the average winning margin is overwhelming 41.5 points.