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Houston @ UCLA
PICK: Houston -3
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I’ve bet and cashed against UCLA in each of their first two games, and there’s absolutely no reason to hop off the anti-Bruins train here. Rick Neuheisel’s squad was besieged with injuries in each of the last two seasons, and so far, that trend has continued. Starting quarterback Kevin Prince has been limited since the first day of practice, suffering from a slightly torn back muscle. He was benched in the second half last week, but is expected to line up behind center again here; bad news for a confidence-less team that lost 35-0 at home with Prince last Saturday.
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Prince’s ailments are just the tip of the iceberg with significant injury concerns on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The Bruins will be missing Xavier Su’a Filo (mission), Jeff Baca (academics), Nik Abele (neck) and Kai Maiava (ankle). Stanley Hasiek flunked out of school. Eddie Williams has missed a bunch of practice time with concussion issues, although he is expected to suit up. The injuries and attrition don’t end there. Star defensive end Datone Jones – their only returning starter on the defensive line – broke his foot in practice. Offensive tackle Mike Harris (18 career starts) was suspended for the opener and didn’t see the field last week. This team is noticeably weak on both the offensive and defensive lines.
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This line is sitting at -3 because of concerns about the health of Houston quarterback Case Keenum. I’m willing to support the Cougars whether Keenum plays or not – backup Cotton Turner can fill the void if necessary. Houston won SU on the road at Oklahoma State and Mississippi State last year; two teams that are better than UCLA. They’ve scored 31+ in each of their last eight road games; bad news for a downtrodden Bruins offense that averaged 23 ppg in ’06, 22 ppg in ’07, 18 ppg in ’08 and 22 ppg last year. UCLA just can’t trade points with an offense of this caliber. (#191) 2* Take Houston.
Sports Insights
Iowa State vs. Kansas State
Iowa State had trouble holding onto the football, turning it over three times in last week's 35-7 loss to #9 Iowa. Their opponent, Kansas State, had the offense rolling against Missouri State, racking up 493 yards en route to a 48-24 win.
Kansas State opened as a 5.5-point home favorite at CRIS and is a massive public favorite. Eighty-five percent of spread bets have fallen on the Wildcats, yet the line has shrunk two full points to -3.5. This significant reverse-line movement is a key indicator that sharp money is backing the road dog and Sports Insights' Betting Systems fully agree. One positive Steam Move and five positive Smart Money Plays, including one at Pinnacle (+5.28 units), our number #1 ranked Smart Money sportsbook, have been triggered on Iowa State.
The majority of sportsbooks are offering Iowa State at +3.5, but there are still a good number at a full 4. To kickoff Week 3, we'll fade a huge public favorite, follow the Smart Money and take Iowa State and the points.
Iowa State +4
Nebraska vs. Washington
Nebraska used a strong second quarter Saturday to put away Idaho and pick-up their second win of the season. The Cornhuskers rolled up a stunning 360 yards on the ground in the 38-17 victory.
Behind stud quarterback Jake Locker, Washington bounced back from a season-opening loss to BYU with 21-point victory over Syracuse. Locker was his usual, efficient self, needing only 22 completions to rack up 289 yards and four touchdowns.
Nebraska opened as a 4-point favorite at CRIS and is currently garnering 82% of spread bets. This would normally cause the line to grow, yet the line has dropped to -3, where it currently sits at CRIS. Five positive Smart Money Plays, including one at Pinnacle (+5.28 units), and one Steam Move at Legendz (+5.2 units) have been triggered on Washington. There are only a couple of sportsbooks offering the Huskies at +3.5, so do some line shopping and grab this game off the key number of 3.
Washington +3.5
Mississippi State vs. LSU
Mississippi State will be looking to rebound this week after a tough home loss to Auburn. The Bulldogs kept it close all game, but were shutout in the fourth quarter, ultimately losing 17-14.
LSU hammered Vanderbilt at home Saturday, holding the Commodores to 135 total yards and three points in the 24-point victory.
LSU opened as a 9.5-point favorite at CRIS and is currently receiving significant public support. Sixty-three percent of spread wagers are backing the Tigers, yet Sports Insights' Betting Systems have found value on the Bulldogs. One positive Smart Money Play and two positive Steam Moves have been triggered on Mississippi State, giving us the confidence to take the road underdog and the points.
Mississippi State +8
OffshoreInsiders
Texas (-3) at Texas Tech
Texas’ offense is a work in progress. Garrett Gilbert has big shoes to fill with Colt McCoy leaving for the NFL, and he hasn’t figured it out quite yet. Though he hasn’t killed the Longhorns with turnovers, big plays have been at a premium. Defensively, Texas has played its cards pretty close to the chest—obviously waiting to spring its exotic coverages and blitzes on Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders aren’t playing their “A” game. Sure, they’re 2-0, but they needed some brilliant special teams to take care of business against Wyoming (two blocked punts and a 93-yard kick return set up scoring drives in the win). The ground game has struggled, putting extra pressure on quarterback Taylor Potts. The Red Raiders have struggled a bit against the pass, but it shouldn’t be a problem with Garrett under center for Texas.
This is Gilbert’s first big road game as a starter. He hasn’t played very well yet, and Tech has won half of the past 10 meetings between these teams against the spread. It’s quite tempting to take the Red Raiders at home, but Gilbert will probably be bailed out by a talented defense. Look for a very tight game, but the Longhorns to just barely cover.
Iowa (-2) at Arizona
Both teams are coming off two straight blowout victories, but Arizona has looked very impressive, winning by a cumulative score of 93-8. Of course, Iowa is a different beast than the Citadel and Toledo. The last time the Wildcats faced a tough defensive line was last year’s Holiday Bowl against Nebraska; Arizona lost 33-0 and gained just 109 yards.
Iowa, meanwhile, arguably features the best defensive line in the country. Certainly, Arizona running back Nic Grigsby is a threat (107 yards on 11 carries last week), but these guys aren’t afraid of anybody. The Hawkeyes also boast a talented offense, led by a dominating rushing attack; Adam Robinson and Jewel Hampton combined for 240 yards in last week’s 35-7 win over Iowa State.
The Wildcats have looked impressive, to be sure, but they haven’t proven anything yet. Iowa is a sleeper National Championship candidate after winning 11 games last season, and the team hasn’t shown anything to change that so far. With all four starters from last year’s defensive line returning, the Hawkeyes are in prime position to shut down Arizona’s biggest threat in Grigsby. Take the Hawkeyes to cover on the road.
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Marshall at Bowling Green
Prediction: Bowling Green
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The season is only two weeks old but already both of these squads have been put through the proverbial ringer. Marshall shows up after getting pounded by 38 points at Ohio State, then snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in a 3-point OT loss to West Virginia (Herd led 21-6 before a Tron Martinez fumble at the West Virginia 6 with 8:28 left in the game – and never trailed until the final field goal in overtime). The Bee Gees opened 2010 with a heartbreaking 30-27 loss at Troy, then saw a pair of touchdowns wiped out by penalties in last week's 13-point defeat by Tulsa. So what should we do when faced with a pair of teams that are virtually running on empty? Look to the home team, of course. Bowling Green brings some stout ATS numbers to the field in their home opener: the Falcons are a perfect 4-0 ATS lately when taking four or less points at home and 4-0 ATS with revenge (lost by seven as 3-point road chalk last season) off back-to-back losses, if the last defeat was by double digits. Throw in the fact that Bowling Green stands 16-4 SU in its initial game at Doyt Perry Stadium and a heavy dose of payback should be in order here. We recommend a 1-unit play on Bowling Green.
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1* on Ole Miss -12FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ole Miss did get off to a slow start this season, but with that slow start comes some nice value on the spread. The Rebels are now slim 12-point favorites over Vanderbilt Saturday, a team that is clearly the worst in the SEC this season. Ole Miss still has plenty of talent and we believe it will come together this week led by QB Jeremiah Masol. They'll put up a blowout win against the Commodores, who do not have the offensive firepower to hang with the Rebels. Vandy lost 3-27 to LSU at home last week, putting up just 135 yards of total offense. The Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Ole Miss is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. Look for the Rebels to bust out in a big way Saturday. Take Ole Miss and lay the points.
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Maryland vs. West Virginia
Play: Under 44FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A pair of rivals that prefer to run the football. Maryland (2-0 SU/1-0 ATS) has already put last year’s injury-marred campaign behind them. Kenny Tate stopped Ricky Dobbs at the goal line with 34 seconds left, and Maryland stunned in-state rival Navy 17-14 to break a seven-game losing streak that began last October. Head Coach Ralph Friedgen has plenty of experience returning on both sides of the ball, except at QB, with sophomore QB Jamarr Robinson stepping in. West Virginia (2-0) is also a run-first team, so don't look for a shootout. Play West Virginia/Maryland Under the total.
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Hawaii Warriors +13FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Get ready for a very long season Colorado Buffalo fans. If someone told me before the year started that there would be no way Colorado would be 3-9 again, I would have agreed. Unfortunately for the Buffs, it looks like CU could be heading for something worse. The Buffs continued their five-year road ineptness in the Dan Hawkins era by falling behind California by 31 points at halftime and losing to the tune of an embarrassing 52-7. This team is bad. The did beat Colorado State in the opener 24-3, but the Rams are even worse! The rivalry game with CSU should NEVER be the measuring stick for how good the Buffs are. The Warriors are going to be a test for Colorado. Hawaii has one of the most potent passing attacks in the nation and should be able to put points on the board. The CU defense gave up an average of 28.83 points in 2009, second worse in the Big 12. Safety Anthony Perkins was last year's leading tackler and returns for his junior season, but the Buffaloes' next three leading tacklers are all gone. The ineptness of the Colorado offense has me wondering if the Buffs can even win the game, let alone win by double figures. My only concern for Hawaii is the long thirteen day road trip which takes them to eight cities and four time zones and playing in the thin air in Colorado, but the Buffs balance those negatives out by having Dan Hawkins on their sidelines. After last weeks win at Army, Hawaii coach Greg McMackin is now 8-3 against the spread in his last eleven games on the mainland. Take the points.
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Ohio +30.5 vs Ohio St.
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This is a great letdown spot where we can take advantage!
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With tons of plays coming this weekend, putting 2 page writeups into every one of them is just not feasible, so we'll go bullet-point on the Freebies.
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* Ohio St. is coming off a BIG, emotional win over Miami. This is a trademark letdown spot for a very good team laying a ton of points against a dog that's going to want to try to make a splash against the big brother, in-state.
* Ohio has come in here before and had success. Do not write them off because of the ranking next to Ohio St.
* The key for us is that we need Ohio to take care of the ball. Even if they don't score, just force Ohio St. to go the length of the field.
* There's no doubt Ohio St. wins this game, but they're not covering 30. Ohio St. wins by 21-24.
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Play on Ohio Bobcats!
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Washington +3.5 vs Nebraska
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This line, in my opinion, is one of the fishiest on the board...
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The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been making mincemeat out of some bad teams, and that big ranking next to their name just keeps getting more and more impressive.
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Everywhere you look on the net, people are going to be talking about the Huskers' defense, and make no mistake, it's solid, but a defense always needs its first test, and that's coming in this one.
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The fact that we can get over a FG on the home team is tremendous, since there's no question that Washington is going to come out of the gates with a TON of energy.
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I expect our home team to take the lead with some adrenaline and emotion early, and over time, Nebraska will definitely make this game a great one. Heck, they might even win, but that late FG won't scare us.
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Washington is going to impress a lot of people with their performance in this game, and it's Jake Locker's chance to really put himself on the National stage. Look for a true MVP-caliber effort from one of the best QB's in the college game, and look for a potential upset, and a cover, at the very least.
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Play on the Washington Huskies!
James Patrick SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Wake Forest Deacon Deamons are (26-63) ATS when they surrender (28) points or more in a contest. By comparison the Stanford Cardinal is (11-2) ATS in home games over the L3 seasons and you can bank on the Cardinal posting (28) points in this game. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday College Football complimentary selection is Stanford in an inter-sectional game on Saturday Night at the "Farm".
Jimmy MooreFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas @ Georgia
Pick: Arkansas +2.5
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The loss of big time WR Green looks to have really hurt the Georgia offense and the Bulldogs are only 3-8 ATS as a home favorite. Arkansas has a big time QB in Mallet and they are in a good role since they are 6-2 ATS as a dog with revenge. Take the Razorbacks to get the win or at least the cover in this one.
Chuck O'Brien
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For Saturday’s first of two college football complimentary selection – and I’ve hit 14 of 19 free plays in September, including six in a row after Southern Miss pounded Kansas on Friday – I’ll side with Air Force as a big road ‘dog at Oklahoma.
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Two teams coming off very impressive wins, as the Falcons snapped a six-game losing skid to BYU with a 35-14 whipping while Oklahoma bounced back from a sluggish season-opening victory over Utah State with a resounding 47-17 spanking of Florida State. However, if one of these two squads falls victim to a letdown you’d figure it would be Oklahoma – after all, the Sooners have to be thinking “If we just did THAT to Florida State, we’re going to destroy little old Air Force.” Plus, if any college football player is going to be immune to a letdown, you’d figure it would be one from a service academy (think mental discipline).
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Air Force has it’s intricate triple-option attack in high gear already, having rolled up 100 points, 1,093 total yards and 846 rushing yards in its first two games. Clearly, the Sooners have the athletes on defense run down the Falcons, but will be those athletes be sound in their technique and be disciplined enough to plug the gaps and stay home on the edges? We’ll see. All I know is this is NOT an easy offense to prepare for, especially when coming off a big win.
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The Falcons pride themselves on playing mistake-free football, and that will be a must in this game. And ball control will be as important as ball security – sustained drives that chew up the clock are Air Force’s only chance to stay in this contest. And if they do it, they’ll cover this number, because while Oklahoma wasn’t as bad as it looked in that 31-24 win over Utah State, it also isn’t as good as it looked against Florida State.
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Air Force has cashed in six of its last eight games (including three of four as a ‘dog), while the Sooners haven’t covered in back-to-back games since the start of last season.
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3♦ AIR FORCE
For my second complimentary college football selection for Saturday, I’ll take the points with UNLV at Idaho.
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It’s been a rough start to the Bobby Hauck era in Las Vegas, with back-to-back blowout losses of 20 and 28 points. However, the Rebels didn’t exactly start with a couple of patsies, as they hosted 12th-ranked Wisconsin in the opener then went to No. 20 Utah last week. Tonight, UNLV faces an opponent that’s much more on their level in Idaho.
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The Vandals had a breakout season last year, going 8-5 and beating Bowling Green in the Humanitarian Bowl, but this is still nothing more than a middle-of-the-road WAC team. And last week, when Idaho stepped up in class, it got crushed at Nebraska 38-17 – and the score wasn’t that close, as Nebraska had a 471-279 yardage edge and picked off Vandals QB Nathan Enderle five times. (Enderle has already been sacked 11 times in two games as he plays behind an offensive line with just one returning starter from last year.)
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Idaho was a 3½-point favorite when the Golden Nugget released its odds for 200 marquee games back in mid-June, so to get a full TD here is great line value. Plus the Vandals have dropped three straight home games (SU and ATS) against Division I-A opponents, they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five as a home chalk and 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 when coming off a loss. I smell an outright upset here as the Rebels should take the field with the kind of confidence they didn’t have in their first two games.
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3♦ UNLV
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Your Saturday comp play release is to go against the Thundering Herd of Marshall.
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Marshall had arch-rival West Virginia dead to rights last Friday night in Huntington, only to see the Mountaineers come back from the dead for the 24-21 overtime win.
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That is one damaging loss to the Herd's psyche, and I do not want any parts of backing them as a road favorite today.
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Bowling Green is off to an 0-2 start straight up, but they have covered in both of those games as the road dog, and now it is home opener time for the Falcons who have covered 10 of their last 15 lined home openers.
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It is also revenge for BG, as they lost 17-10 as the 3-point road favorite last year at Marshall.
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Take the points in this one.
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3♦ BOWLING GREEN
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Southern Cal at MINNESOTA (+12)
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The G-Man just continues to hum along!
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7 of the last 9 days on the right side of the money. 12-3 run the last 9 days, good for +171 dimes of net profit.
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The heat is on again on Saturday with 30 Dime Stone Cold Lock - Winner # 4 in a Row - Connecticut-Temple at noon eastern. Have to get it early!
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Well aware of the fact South Dakota came into Minnesota last weekend and hung a rather embarrassing 41-38 loss on the Golden Gophers, but the G-Man has a strong feeling Minnesota was caught looking ahead to this game today.
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Lane Kiffin brings his 2-0 Trojans into the Twin Cities, but it should be noted this Trojan edition has not dominated the line of scrimmage the way past editions have, and they have failed to cover in either win. That means USC is just 4-11 against the spread their last 15 on-line, and only 1-8 their last 9 on the road.
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Minnesota is at least 8-5 against the spread their last 13 as the underdog, and I have to believe they will want to save face after last week's shocking loss.
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G-Man going to grab the double-digits today with the Gophers.
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4♦ MINNESOTA
Indiana (-13) at WESTERN KENTUCKY
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7 of the last 9 days on the right side of the money. 12-3 run the last 9 days, good for +171 dimes of net profit.
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The heat is on again on Saturday with 30 Dime Stone Cold Lock - Winner # 4 in a Row - Connecticut-Temple at noon eastern. Have to get it early!
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You can forget the fact the Hoosiers are just 5-9 against the spread on the road their last 14 lined games, today's meeting against Western Kentucky is tailor-made for Indiana.
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Indy has been idle since laying waste to Towson State back on the 2nd, and they only have a game with Akron on-deck, so a 3-0 start is a very really possibility for Bill Lynch's team.
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Indiana opened their 2008 season with a 31-13 win and cover over the Hilltoppers, and this Hilltopper edition appears to have forgotten how to play defense, as they have already allowed 112 total points in losses to Nebraska and Kentucky.
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Western Kentucky has now lost 22 straight games, and would appear to be highlight reel fooder for the likes of Chappell, Willis, and Doss.
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IU sticks it good to WKU.
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Lay the points.
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2♦ INDIANA
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PICK: Under 7FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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A team can be in first place for 100 straight days or a great majority of the regular season, but if they're not in front come the beginning of October, it really doesn't mean much. The Braves are finding this out the hard way as on May 31st, they took over the lead in the NL Eastern division and pretty much held it for 100 straight days. But on September 7, the Phillies caught them and now the defending NL Champs appear not to be looking in their rear-view mirror as they've opened up a three-game lead heading into this weekend's schedule of games. Nobody knows the harsh reality of this more than starter Tim Hudson, who only about a month ago looked like a Cy Young candidate, and a strong one at that. Now Hudson is mired in a terrible funk, having gone 1-3 with a 5.17 ERA in his last five starts, and to make matters worse, his team isn't showing up when he pitches lately, as the Braves have only scored a total of five runs in Hudson's three September starts. He has to face a red-hot rookie righthander in 24-year-old Dillon Gee and he has to do it on the road this afternoon. Gee has pitched gems against the Nats and Pirates and the Mets have won both of his starts, although both games have been low-scoring affairs. Gee has absolutely nothing to lose, while fewer starts in Hudson's career have been as big for him as this one. He will have to keep the game close because he almost certainly won't see many runs scored on either side. The under is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings and 8-0 in the last eight in New York. Take the 'under.'
Info Plays Saturday NCAA Football Free Play:
3* on Alabama -23.5
Reasons Alabama covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (ALABAMA) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. This is a 23-2 ATS System hitting 92% over the last 10 seasons. Alabama is the real deal this season and Duke stands no chance of keeping this game close. Bet Alabama on the road.