Bobby MaxwellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas at GEORGIA (-2')
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I'm on the college gridiron tonight, delivering a FREE winner in a key SEC matchup between Arkansas and Georgia. Go with the Bulldogs in this one as they have the defense to limit Arkansas' touches.
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As for my comp selection, this is a classic case of looking ahead for Arkansas as they head in-between the Hedges to take on Georgia here with a pending home game against Alabama coming up next week. I like the way Georgia plays at home and I’m going to lay the small chalk with the Bulldogs in this one.
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Georgia has won six straight over Arkansas (4-2 ATS), including a huge 52-41 win last season on the Razorbacks’ home field. These two squads haven’t met in Georgia since 2005, but the Bulldogs have won three straight over Arkansas in Georgia, with two being easy wins and covers.
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Last week, Georgia went to South Carolina and fell 17-6, failing as a three-point underdog. The Bulldogs crushed University of Louisiana Lafayette 55-7, cashing as 28 ½-point favorites.
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Arkansas’ offense has rolled through the first two games, winning by a combined 75-10, with QB Ryan Mallett completing 73 percent of his throws for 701 yards and six TDs. The big problem for this offense is turnovers and they’ve had six in the first two games. The Razorbacks have not run the ball well, including managing just 99 yards on 31 carries last week. A huge blow for Arkansas is the loss of RB Dennis Johnson who at least offered a threat out of the backfield.
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On the other side, Georgia gets a boost with the return of Caleb King into the backfield after he missed last week’s game with an ankle injury. The Bulldogs had just 61 rushing yards without him last week after getting 184 in the season-opener. If they get consistent play from QB Aaron Murray today, the Bulldogs can come out here and beat up the Razorbacks.
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Arkansas is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 September games. I’m going to go ahead and lay the small chalk and play the Bulldogs. Go with Georgia.
2♦ GEORGIA BULLDOGS
Notre Dame at MICHIGAN ST. (-3')
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The college gridiron is bringing us another FREE winner tonight as I go ahead and lay the chalk with Michigan State at home against Notre Dame.
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For my comp selection; Michigan State has opened the season with back-to-back wins, while Notre Dame has opened the Brian Kelly-era with a tough win over Purdue and then last week’s home loss to Michigan. The Spartans bring an experienced QB and a tough defense into this one and the home crowd will carry them to the win and cover tonight.
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Kirk Cousins and the Spartans opened the season by beating Western Michigan 38-14 as 22 ½-point favorites, with the QB throwing for 186 yards and a score. But it’s his rushing game that is dominant with LeVeon Bell rushing for 141 yards and two scores, with teammate Edwin Baker adding 117 yards and two more scores. Last week, the Spartans beat up Florida Atlantic with Baker netting 183 yards and a score.
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Notre Dame was outrushed by Michigan last week by 134 yards, losing to the Wolverines 28-24 as 3 ½-point favorites. The Irish try to throw the ball all over the field with QB Dayne Crist, but if the Spartans can get some pressure on him and control the line of scrimmage, this could turn out to be an easy victory.
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Michigan State has cashed in three straight against the Irish and the Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five against independent teams and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after an ATS win. On the other side, Notre Dame is on ATS skids of 0-5 against Big Ten teams, 0-5 in September contests, 3-10 overall and 1-4 against Michigan State.
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I’m going with the home team Spartans tonight. They will control the clock with their ground game. Play Michigan State.
4♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Craig DavisFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tulsa at OKLAHOMA STATE
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Today's free play is on the Oklahoma State/Tulsa matchup to go OVER the total. The only reason I'm not releasing this as a paid play is because I lost on OSU last week and I want to make sure I really know this team before I release them again.
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But I'm still quite certain this is a solid play. Have you seen Tulsa's defense? It might be one of the top 5 worst defenses in all of college football. It was absolutely amazing to watch East Carolina move up and down the field on them... over and over and over again. The Pirates didn't punt one time in that game, if that tells you how bad it really is.
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But OSU doesn't get off the hook that easy. They aren't much better after allowing lowly Troy to score 38 on them last week in a game in which the Trojans nearly pulled the upset in Stillwater.
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So we've established that both of these defenses suck... but what about the offenses? Can OSU and Tulsa score enough to push us over this inflated total of 68 or 69? That's a lot of points, isn't it? Yes, but both of these offenses are high octane and can score on any play. OSU scored 50+ points in Week 1 and 41 last week. Tulsa scored 49 against East Carolina and 33 last week, so they are also more than capable of putting up the points in this one.
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OSU has scored more than 34 points in each of the last five matchups between these two schools and they'll make it six today. Lots of points as this one could be over the total by the end of the third.
4♦ OVER
Stephen NoverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Alabama at DUKE (+24)
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I am on a 70-49-2 run with my free baseball selections after cashing in on the Over in the Padres/Cardinals game.
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I'll get to your free pick for today in just a moment, but first want you to know I have my biggest college football play of the season going today. Two Fridays ago I scored with a 40-Dime winner on the Houston Cougars, but tonight I raise the bar with something 50 percent stronger than Houston.
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Do not miss this 60-Dime Value Chalk, the one game you cannot do without today, as I have the biggest blowout on the board!
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This is a huge game for Duke. It's not often the top team in the land comes visiting the Blue Devils. Duke should be sky-high for this matchup, which is a real test to see how much David Cutcliffe actually has improved the Blue Devils.
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Alabama, on the other hand, is in a flat spot. The Crimson Tide just turned back Penn State at home and faces Arkansas on the road in its opening SEC matchup next week. Obviously that game means much more than this non-conference game against a team that is easy to overlook.
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The emphasis for the Tide will be getting Mark Ingram touches after the defending Heisman Trophy winner missed the first two weeks of the season. Duke should be well prepared. Cutcliffe went to school at Alabama and coached against the Tide when he was at Tennessee, a rival SEC opponent.
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Cutcliffe has improved Duke's talent base. The Blue Devils still aren't close to competing with the Alabamas of the world, but they are getting steadily better and have the passing attack to keep within this large pointspread range. Certainly the backdoor is open.
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Alabama won't face many quarterbacks better than Sean Renfree, who already has passed for more than 700 yards and six touchdowns. Duke has a trio of excellent receivers, too, with Donovan Varner, Austin Kelly and Conner Vernon.
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The Blue Devils have covered seven of the past nine times when taking 15 or more points.
2♦ DUKE
Iowa (+1') at ARIZONA
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The oddsmaker opened Iowa a slight road favorite against Arizona. Early money, though, has currently pushed the Wildcats to being the favorite.
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Arizona has looked good. But look at who the Wildcats have played - Toledo and The Citadel, a non-board team. Beating these two cupcakes has lifted the Wildcats into the No. 24 spot in the Top 25.
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Arizona is a solid contender to capture the wide-open Pac-10 this season. But the Wildcats are not in the class of the ninth-ranked Hawkeyes, who have set their sights on winning the national championship.
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Is this a feasible goal? Yes, if the Hawkeyes can win this game. Their schedule lays out with their toughest Big Ten games - Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State - all coming at home. They are aware of the importance of this matchup and the ramifications. It's the only matchup of Top 25 teams on the menu this week.
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The teams met last year in Iowa City and the Hawkeyes won by 10 points.
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Iowa has looked good so far rolling past Eastern Illinois and Iowa State by a combined 72-14 margin. The Hawkeyes have a balanced attack led by quarterback Ricky Stanzi and running back Adam Robinson. Their defense is outstanding headed Adrian Clayborn, one of the best linemen in the country.
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Iowa has the athletes and size on defense to take away much of Arizona's spread offense. Quarterback Nick Foles has put up good numbers for Arizona, but I'm not sold on him when it comes to facing an elite defense.
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The Hawkeyes have covered their last eight road contests. They also are 12-3 ATS the past 15 times they've been underdogs.
4♦ IOWA
DUNKEL INDEX
NCAAF
Clemson at Auburn
The Tigers look to take advantage of an Auburn team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 home games. Clemson is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Auburn favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+7 1/2)
Game 107-108: Arkansas at Georgia (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 96.323; Georgia 97.959
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Georgia by 2 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+2 1/2); Under
Game 109-110: Maryland at West Virginia (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 85.564; West Virginia 94.585
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 9; 41
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 11; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+11); Under
Game 111-112: Iowa State at Kansas State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 84.941; Kansas State 93.631
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 8 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 3 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-3 1/2); Over
Game 113-114: Ball State at Purdue (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 68.110; Purdue 89.409
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 21 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Purdue by 16 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-16 1/2); Under
Game 115-116: Northern Illinois at Illinois (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 81.394; Illinois 87.730
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 6 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Illinois by 8; 47
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+8); Over
Game 117-118: Connecticut at Temple (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 94.648; Temple 84.203
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 10 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 6 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-6 1/2); Over
Game 119-120: Ohio at Ohio State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 81.212; Ohio State 109.813
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 28 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 32; 45
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+32); Under
Game 121-122: Kent State at Penn State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 74.318; Penn State 105.397
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 31; 41
Vegas Line: Penn State by 21; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-21); Under
Game 123-124: Georgia Tech at North Carolina (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 95.689; North Carolina 94.981
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 1; 52
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+2); Over
Game 125-126: Vanderbilt at Mississippi (12:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 82.786; Mississippi 92.415
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 9 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 12; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+12); Over
Game 127-128: East Carolina at Virginia Tech (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 85.973; Virginia Tech 107.683
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 21 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 17 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-17 1/2); Under
Game 129-130: San Diego State at Missouri (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 76.029; Missouri 99.509
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 23 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Missouri by 13 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-13 1/2); Over
Game 131-132: Tulsa at Oklahoma State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 89.963; Oklahoma State 95.452
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 5 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 7; 69
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+7); Under
Game 133-134: Alabama at Duke (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 111.326; Duke 85.914
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 25 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Alabama by 23 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-23 1/2); Over
Game 135-136: Hawaii at Colorado (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 76.701; Colorado 86.103
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 9 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Colorado by 11 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+11 1/2); Under
Game 137-138: BYU at Florida State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 89.434; Florida State 100.735
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 11 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Florida State by 9 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-9 1/2); Over
Game 139-140: Colorado State at Miami (OH) (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 70.107; Miami (OH) 74.118
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 8; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+8); Under
Game 141-142: Florida at Tennessee (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 108.079; Tennessee 97.156
Dunkel Line: Florida by 11; 43
Vegas Line: Florida by 14; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+14); Under
Game 143-144: USC at Minnesota (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 95.190; Minnesota 81.658
Dunkel Line: USC by 13 1/2 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: USC by 11 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: USC (-11 1/2); Over
Game 145-146: Washington State at SMU (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 64.555; SMU 89.062
Dunkel Line: SMU by 24 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: SMU by 22 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-22 1/2); Under
Game 147-148: Arizona State at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 91.468; Wisconsin 102.321
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 11; 50
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 14; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+14); Over
Game 149-150: Nebraska at Washington (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 101.064; Washington 97.924
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 3; 50
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 3 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2); Under
Game 151-152: Louisville at Oregon State (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 79.408; Oregon State 100.309
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 21; 59
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 19; 52
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-19); Over
Game 153-154: Air Force at Oklahoma (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 90.491; Oklahoma 109.984
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 19 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 16 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-16 1/2); Over
Game 155-156: Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 77.949; Eastern Michigan 70.423
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 7 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 9 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+9 1/2); Under
Game 157-158: Baylor at TCU (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 87.083; TCU 110.193
Dunkel Line: TCU by 23; 50
Vegas Line: TCU by 21; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-21); Under
Game 159-160: Marshall at Bowling Green (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 80.648; Bowling Green 82.751
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 2; 55
Vegas Line: Marshall by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+3 1/2); Over
Game 161-162: Navy at Louisiana Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 88.757; Louisiana Tech 80.988
Dunkel Line: Navy by 8; 55
Vegas Line: Navy by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Navy (-3 1/2); Over
Game 163-164: Central Florida at Buffalo (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 82.998; Buffalo 79.862
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 3; 41
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 8 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+8 1/2); Under
Game 165-166: Akron at Kentucky (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 66.673; Kentucky 92.968
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 26; 47
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 24 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-24 1/2); Under
Game 167-168: Toledo at Western Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 73.319; Western Michigan 73.924
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 1; 57
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 4; 54
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+4); Over
Game 169-170: Clemson at Auburn (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 94.981; Auburn 96.279
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Auburn by 7 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+7 1/2); Under
Game 171-172: Texas at Texas Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 109.929; Texas Tech 103.416
Dunkel Line: Texas by 6 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Texas by 3; 52
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-3); Over
Game 173-174: Northwestern at Rice (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 84.521; Rice 79.100
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 5 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 6 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+6 1/2); Under
Game 175-176: Mississippi State at LSU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 91.599; LSU 103.315
Dunkel Line: LSU by 11 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: LSU by 7 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-7 1/2); Over
Game 177-178: Utah at New Mexico (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 97.108; New Mexico 66.541
Dunkel Line: Utah by 30 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Utah by 22 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-22 1/2); Over
Game 179-180: Fresno State at Utah State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 88.590; Utah State 85.400
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 3; 54
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 5 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+5 1/2); Under
Game 181-182: Notre Dame at Michigan State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 93.277; Michigan State 94.034
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 1; 54
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 3 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+3 1/2); Over
Game 183-184: Boise State at Wyoming (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 105.671; Wyoming 79.308
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 26 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Boise State by 23; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-23); Under
Game 185-186: New Mexico State at UTEP (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 60.236; UTEP 78.448
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 18; 54
Vegas Line: UTEP by 14 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-14 1/2); Under
Game 187-188: UNLV at Idaho (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 76.183; Idaho 85.752
Dunkel Line: Idaho by 9 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Idaho by 6 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (-6 1/2); Over
Game 189-190: Iowa at Arizona (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 99.562; Arizona 100.957
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Iowa by 2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+2); Over
Game 191-192: Houston at UCLA (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 93.902; UCLA 89.995
Dunkel Line: Houston by 4; 57
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 60
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3); Under
Game 193-194: Wake Forest at Stanford (11:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 87.267; Stanford 102.655
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 15 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: Stanford by 17; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+17); Over
Game 195-196: Indiana at Western Kentucky (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 82.279; Western Kentucky 65.728
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 16 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Indiana by 12; 63
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-12); Under
Game 197-198: North Texas at Army (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 66.807; Army 72.209
Dunkel Line: Army by 5 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Army by 6; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+6); Over
Game 199-200: UL-Monroe at Arkansas State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 71.857; Arkansas State 76.611
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 5; 51
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 3 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-3 1/2); Under
Game 201-202: Florida International at Texas A&M (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 68.979; Texas A&M 94.354
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 25 1/2; 63
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 28; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+28); Over
Game 203-204: Middle Tennessee State at Memphis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 81.411; Memphis 68.748
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 12 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 4; 57
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-4); Under
Game 205-206: Troy at UAB (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 85.923; UAB 82.958
Dunkel Line: Troy by 3; 60
Vegas Line: Troy by 3 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+3 1/2); Over
MLB
NY Yankees at Baltimore
The Orioles look to build on their 5-1 record in Jeremy Guthrie's last 6 starts as an underdog. Baltimore is the pick (+175) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+175)
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 18
Game 951-952: Atlanta at NY Mets (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 14.151; NY Mets (Gee) 14.864
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Over
Game 953-954: Colorado at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 15.949; LA Dodgers (Ely) 14.405
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-135); Under
Game 955-956: Arizona at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Enright) 13.431; Pittsburgh (McDonald) 14.705
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-115); Over
Game 957-958: Cincinnati at Houston (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.115; Houston (Figueroa) 15.126
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+125); Under
Game 959-960: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 14.461; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 17.302
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-165); Over
Game 961-962: Chicago Cubs at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Coleman) 15.998; Florida (Sanchez) 14.597
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+140); Under
Game 963-964: San Diego at St. Louis (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Young) 13.663; St. Louis (Suppan) 14.927
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+110); Over
Game 965-966: Milwaukee at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.560; San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.340
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Under
Game 967-968: Oakland at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 15.170; Minnesota (Slowey) 16.285
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-135); Over
Game 969-970: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.112; White Sox (Harrell) 13.787
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 971-972: LA Angels at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Pineiro) 14.504; Tampa Bay (Price) 16.197
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-250); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-250); Over
Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.644; Baltimore (Guthrie) 16.271
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-205); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+175); Under
Game 975-976: Cleveland at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 14.379; Kansas City (O'Sullivan) 15.560
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+105); Over
Game 977-978: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.051; Boston (Beckett) 15.308
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Under
Game 979-980: Texas at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lee) 16.420; Seattle (Vargas) 13.869
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-185); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-185); Over
CFL
Hamilton at BC
The Tiger-Cats look to bounce back from their 27-6 loss to Montreal last week and build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 games following an ATS loss. Hamilton is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+3 1/2)
Game 283-284: Hamilton at BC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 111.371; BC 113.465
Dunkel Line: BC by 2; 46
Vegas Line: BC by 3 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+3 1/2); Under
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Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina
Play: Georgia Tech +2.5
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North Carolina hosts the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and certainly has had success in this series as they are 5-1 ATS last six including 3-0 ATS in the last thee at home. Certainly history and the fact that the Yellow Jackets hard to explain loss to Kansas last week looks to point to the Tar Heels.
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However, before you jump on that bandwagon consider that the Yellow Jackets are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS off a loss under HC Paul Johnson and 8-1 ATS as conference favorites or dogs of three or less points. In addition Tech is 5-1 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back road games.
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Supporting Angles: N CAROLINA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games in September games since 1992. GEORGIA TECH is 60-35 ATS (+21.5 Units) in the first half of the season since 1992.
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Houston U vs. UCLA
Play: UCLA +3.5
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5* graded play on UCLA as they host Houston set to start at 10:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent opportunity to win the game. The model also shows that UCLA will score more than 28 points and will gain a minimum of 450 yards. Houston is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. UCLA is a solid 68-28 ATS (+37.2 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992; 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since 1992. Houston is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after out gaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Let’s face facts, Houston has played two very weak teams in Texas State University and Texas El Paso. Those opponents are vastly different from the first two that UCLA played in Kansas State and Stanford. I call that seasoning and that will play off mightily for UCLA in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 63-14 making 45.2 units since 2004. Play on a home team versus the money line in non-conference games and in the first month of the season and after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games. Take UCLA.
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1 Unit on Oklahoma Sooners -16.5
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OU flexed its muscles last week and put the hurt on FSU. Expect the Sooners to keep it revved up this week against an inferior Air Force squad. The Sooners are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 September games, and they'll build on this trend as Air Force has no answer for their high-powered passing attack. Lay the points.
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Duke Blue Devils
Play: Alabama Crimson Tide -23.5
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Alabama is showing excellent value Saturday as a favorite against Duke. The Crimson Tide should be a much bigger favorite this weekend, and the final score will show it as they roll right over the Blue Devils on the gridiron. Alabama has opened the season by going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS, winning over San Jose State by 45 and over Penn State by 21. They easily covered the spread in both games.
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Mark Ingram returns this weekend, and that only gives this Alabama team even more offensive firepower. Crimson Tide are stacked offensively, bringing back all their proven playmakers from a year ago. In all, the Crimson Tide welcome back 8 offensive starters. Alabama is 20-9 ATS in all games over the last 3 seasons, including 6-0 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Duke doesn't have the defense to slow down Alabama, allowing 54 points to Wake Forest last week. Bet Alabama Saturday.
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1 Unit on Washington Huskies +3.5
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An early season test at BYU has Washington more prepared for this contest than Nebraska, who has played two pushovers. Plus, Nebraska will be taking to the road for the first time with an inexperienced quarterback. I'll gladly get behind the seasoned Jake Locker here on his home field. The Nebraska defense remains a respectable unit, but it doesn't scare teams the way it did last season when Ndamukong Suh was dominating up front. Locker poses major problems for this Nebraska "D" because of his ability to beat you with his arm or his legs. The Huskies also showed a quick passing game against Syracuse that will be difficult for Nebraska to tame. Locker gets the ball out quickly on short routes to let his speedy, athletic receivers run after the catch. This will virtually take the Nebraska pass rush out of the game. The Huskers are already 0-2 ATS this season as the have been overvalued by odds makers. Plus, they are just 21-44-2 ATS in their last 67 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Look for the Locker to make a nice case for the Heisman Trophy as he leads the Huskies to this minor upset.
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Notre Dame at Michigan State
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Like the great Chuck D said, "don't believe the hype" when it comes to Notre Dame. The Irish are off an outright loss at home to Michigan last week and this week hit the road to play an even better Big Ten squad. The Spartans have outgained the Irish in each of the last four meetings and have won 9 of the last 13 in the series (12-3 ATS L15). Home team has won two straight after losing an amazing seven straight. Notre Dame is 0-6 ATS after going Under in their previous game.
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Play on: Michigan State
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Pleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
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Neither the Cleveland Indians nor the Kansas City Royals are going anywhere, but the Indians have no right being road favorites over anyone.
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The bookmakers have installed the Royals as +107 underdogs on the betting line despite this game being played at Kauffman Stadium.
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Now these teams are actually tied in the loss column with their 86 losses, although Kansas City is actually last in the American League Central, one-half game behind the Tribe. However, the Royals have not been horrible at home, going 33-39. Conversely, Cleveland is 29-44 on the road, where they are averaging just 3.95 runs per game for the entre season, and they are hitting only .230 while averaging 3.40 runs in their last 10 games.
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Tribe starter Justin Masterson has pitched well lately, but most of his good starts have come at home. He is just 3-7 with a horrendous 6.29 ERA and 1.84 WHIP on the road though, and those numbers alone make the Indians dicey propositions as road chalk. Furthermore, he is facing a Royals offense that is actually hot right now, hitting .299 overall in the last 10 games including a whopping .322 vs. right-handed pitchers!
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Granted, Sean O’Sullivan has been terrible as of late, but given Masterson’s road numbers, that only makes this starting pitching matchup basically a wash. The Royals have obviously had the better offense this season though, and the fact that the Indians have never faced O’Sullivan before makes him a candidate for an improved performance tonight.
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Finally, it never a bad thing to take a home underdog in a game that is basically a toss-up, and we actually think that it is Kansas City that should be slightly favored here.
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BOSTON –1½ +1.52 over TorontoVISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Right off the bat, Ricky Romero is at a big psychological disadvantage for this start. Every time Romero faces the Red Sox he gets killed and that makes him extremely fragile when he takes the mound here. Current Red Sox hitters are batting .357 off Romero and this year alone he’s 0-1 against them in three starts with an 8.22 ERA. Furthermore, it’s not like he’s feeling it right now either. Romero has allowed five runs or more in three of his last four starts. Romero's inability to sustain the skills he has flashed in the first half of each season over an entire season is clearly a concern. Then there’s Josh Beckett. Beckett is the only starting pitcher who has posted a 150+ BPV (for explanation of **BPV see bottom of this page) in each of the last three Septembers. While Beckett's year-to-date surface stats are terrible (6.21 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) and they didn't get much better in August (6.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), his skills in August were fantastic: 45%/17%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball and a 134 BPV. Beckett’s strand rate in August was 59% and that’s an alarmingly low number, which suggests he’s been the recipient of a whole lot of bad fortune. Take note of Beckett’s 21 K’s in his last 19 innings going up against a Jays team that has struck out more than any team in the majors. Play: Boston –1½ +1.52 (Risking 2 units).
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Florida (-) over Tennessee
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Last week Tennessee played Oregon tough through the first half but was dominated in the second half. We listened to that game on the radio, and learned something very notable. The color commentator (Gary Barnett) mentioned that early on in the game UT was able to stuff the up read option, almost like they knew what play was being called. He indicated that the reason the Vols knew so much about the Duck offense was that Justin Wilcox - the UT Defensive Coordinator - not only played at Oregon so he knew the system well, he was also the DC at Boise last year when the Broncos beat Oregon in the opener, holding the offense at bay. That was a MASSIVE edge, and it showed, keeping UT in last week's game until the physical skills of Oregon just took over. Vols do not have that edge this time around, and Florida represents other challenges in schemes and personnel that the rebuilding Vols are going to struggle against. Finally, note that Florida is 8-3 ATS as away chalk for Meyer and should post another win here.
OC Dooley
Wake Forest +17.5
A new week of college football wagering started on Thursday when North Carolina State of the Atlantic Coast Conference successfully covered the spread in an ESPN national telecast. The success of the Wolfpack that night completely reversed the prior weekend when all teams from the Atlantic Coast Conference draw lost “non” conference affairs with the most humiliating result being the James Madison outright upset of Virginia Tech (plus road failures by Florida State and Miami-Florida). Entering this weekend the Atlantic Coast Conference has only ONE member that is ranked in the National Top-25, so this league has work to do in “non” conference opportunities such as this. On the face of it siding with Wake Forest in this last night ESPN2 televised affair seems ridiculous since the Demon Deacons have lost 6 consecutive “out of state” regular season games and have a freshman quarterback directing the show. But the fact of the matter is that tonight is a prime emotional “letdown” spot for Stanford who one week ago in a National TV affair came up with arguably one of their biggest all-time victories by posting a 35-0 road shutout at UCLA. Odds are that Stanford defense will put the clamps on a Wake Forest attack that has put up a combined 107 points on the scoreboard in consecutive contests, but one has to wonder if they can bring the same type of intensity to the field for a second consecutive week. Stanford is also in a “look ahead” spot as they have a high profile game with Notre Dame on deck. For the record fast starts are unusual for Stanford who are seeking to go 3-0 out of the gate for the first time since 2001 and only the 4th time since 1972
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Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals +1½
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The Indians don't win much on the road. When they have managed to win one on the road and have to come back again the next night, they are just 8-19. Asking them to cover a -1.5 runline on the road makes that situation pretty undesireable. The Royals have done a very good job at home as they are 13-10 in their last 23 here and 16-7 if facing the +1.5 runline. The Tribe is just 10-25 in Masterson's last 35 starts and on the road with a total from 9-10.5 they are a brutal 14-37. Asking them to win isn't pretty, but asking them to win by 2 is ugly. I like Kansas City on the runline in this one.