Joe Gavazzi
Nevada vs. Texas A&M
Play: Nevada +34
In this very space last week, we came away with a pointspread winner with Hawaii (+40) in their improbable cover vs. Ohio St. You, me and THE LONE RANGER were the only ones to cash that winning ticket. Today’s play on Nevada looks just as improbable and as contrary. We need to go no further than my article of the week entitled “A Primer on Using the AFP as Contrary Indicator” to isolate the value in this game. Under 4th year HC Sumlin, there has been little question about the success of the Aggies’ offense. Whether it has been record setting QB Johnny Manziel or this year’s current QB Kyle Allen, the Aggies’ offense has run smooth as a top. Even if the A&M 2nd stringer, QB Murray, should take the reins, there figures to be little drop off from the offensive side of the ball. Witness their 2-0 SU ATS start, in which they have defeated Arizona St. (38-17) and Ball St. (56-23). In so doing, they have covered the number by 23 points setting them up for the first half of our AFP equation. The real reason for the ATS success, however, could be attributed to the defensive side of the ball. In the previous 2 seasons, the Aggies allowed a combined 30 PPG and 463 YPG, fielding PLAY AGAINST 200 CLUB defenses in both years. Out with DC Snyder and in with highly-respected DC Chavis! Nonetheless, it is a bit troublesome for A&M that they still allowed Ball St. to run for 240 yards last week. As easy as it is to play the Texas A&M momentum, remember that this game is sandwiched between that 2-0 SU ATS beginning and 6 consecutive SEC games on the slate ahead. The other half of our AFP equation comes with the Nevada Wolfpack, who is off to a 1-1 SU, but 0-2 ATS start under 3rd year HC Pollian. Despite 13 RS, Nevada is a largely inexperienced team. One of the major issues with their lack of experience is the loss of 4 year starting QB Fajardo. The Wolfpack did have a confidence-building start in Week 1, when they outlasted Cal-Davis (31-17). That included a 232-89 overland edge against the Aggies in their failure to cover the 24-point impost by 10 points. Last week, Nevada returned home to face an angry Arizona team as 11 point home dog. They were “200 CLUBBED” by the Wildcats who put up 570 total yards in a 44-20 victory in which they covered by 13 points. That sets up the 2nd half of our AFP equation, as the Wolfpack is now (-27) total AFP. To remind you once again of the theory, we look to “ play any team with an ATS record of .500 or less and a negative AFP of 20 or more, if they are playing an opponent who has a .500 or better ATS record and a positive AFP of 20 or more. The sum of the net AFP differential should be 50 or more.” To confirm our theory, we look for value in the betting line, if this week’s line is 7 or more points than the projected opening line in Week 1. Considering that this pointspread may have been little more than 2 TDs opening week, we are looking at the biggest value take on this week’s card. Yet, no one but you, me and THE LONE RANGER will be lining up with the Wolfpack this week … just like when we cashed our Hawaii ticket last Saturday afternoon.
Temple vs. Massachusetts
Play: Massachusetts +10.5
Last week in this space, we lost our BIG DOG selection on E. Carolina, when they could only put up 7 total points in their 24 point loss at Stanford as 19 point underdog. This week, we have a far more capable offensive team in UMass, as well as a much better situation. We also have a (+59) net AFP differential in the game (though it does not quite qualify under our strict parameters, as the Minutemen have played just a single contest). Nonetheless, the thinking is certainly there. Review our “LONE RANGER” selection on Nevada or this week’s article entitled “A Primer as Using the AFP as Indicator” for the value thinking in this matchup. Much was expected from the Temple Owls this season. They have 19 RS and a highly-respected 3rd year HC in Matt Rhule. They have not disappointed! In Week 1, Temple defeated Penn St. for the first time since they fought with swords. The victory (27-10) as 6 point underdog was for real, as they outgained the Nittany Lions 317-191, covering by 23 points. Last week, the Owls carried that momentum to Cincinnati, where they recorded another victory by a score of 34-26. This was their opening conference game of the year and allowed Temple to avenge a home field loss last year. Though the Owls did run for 215 yards, they survived courtesy of a (+4) net TO margin and despite allowing Cincinnati QB Kiel to pass for 427 yards. Enter UMass gun-slinger, QB Frohnapfel. With their pro-prospect at the helm, UMass improved their offense from 12/282 in 2013 to 27/421 last year with Frohnapfel leading a passing attack that averaged 312 PYPG. But, UMass clearly underachieved when they faced an angry Buffalo (off a Week 1 loss at Hawaii) at the mile high altitude of Boulder last week. Though Frohnapfel put up 215 passing yards, Colorado stampeded UMass overland 390-147. UMass has 18 RS of their own, arguably the most experienced team in the nation, and will be primed to make amends as they return for their home opener. The combined (-59) net AFP differential assures us that there is value in this line. Clearly, there is some concern that the Owls will dominate overland in this contest. But, the fact Temple is facing a quality signal caller after allowing QB Kiel to torch their secondary last week, plays in our favor. That advantage may pale in comparison to the mental and emotional edge, we have in this contest with Temple due for a probable letdown and UMass sky-high in their home opener off their loss in Boulder and with an opportunity to upset this high-profile Owls team.
East Carolina vs. Navy
Play: Navy -3.5
The Jackets crushed Tulane with a 439-71 yardage edge overland en route to a dominating 65-10 victory and 25 point cover. This week, I expect another solid overland differential, as Navy hosts E. Carolina in an AAC contest. This is a bad scheduling spot for E. Carolina, who left it all on the field last week in their 31-24 loss to Florida. In that contest, the Pirates were looking to avenge a 28-20 Bowl loss. Their efforts fell just short, when 1st year QB Kemp passed for 333 yards and 3 TDs against the Gators. But, Kemp also had a critical fumble inside the Florida 20 with less than a minute to play as the Pirates walked the plank. Key stat from that loss was the fact that Florida outrushed E. Carolina 168 to (-13). E. Carolina figures to suffer much the same fate in this clash with Navy. And without the veteran presence of last year’s starting QB Carden, look for E. Carolina to come up on the short end of the scoreboard again today. Though this is a conference game, the Pirates may treat it with less importance than their higher profile matchup at home with VA Tech next week. This creates an ideal PLAY AGAINST sandwich spot for E. Carolina. No such problem with excitement or motivation for this Navy team, who always comes to play under 8th year HC Niumatalolo. Excitement is in the air at Annapolis, as the Midshipmen play their first ever conference game. They do so with a week of rest following their Week 1 victory against Colgate (48-10). As always, the Middies ground game led the way, as they ran for 371 overland yards on just 47 attempts. That’s traditional for this military school, whose discipline is ideal for running the triple option. Last year, Navy was among the nations’ leaders once again with an average of 338/6.0 on the ground. Today, 4 year starter QB Keenan Reynolds will again lead Navy into battle. He will ably abetted by FB Swain, the first of his 3 triple options. E. Carolina rarely sees the triple option. In fact, the last time they saw it was against this Navy team in 2012, when the Middies came away from an E. Carolina home field with a 56-28 blowout victory. This has all the elements of the CRUSHER OF THE WEEK with the Middies holding key advantages with the fundamentals of their overland game, as well as the situational edge as described above.
Cajun Sports
Texas San Antonio vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Oklahoma State -23.5
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are coming off a blowout victory over Central Arkansas while their opponent was getting blown out at home at the hands of Kansas State. The Roadrunners returned two starters on offense and four starters on defense from a team that went 4-8 SU last season. A check of our powerful database reveals a pair of systems that apply to this game and the fact the Roadrunners are off a loss to the Wildcats their last time out. We want to play AGAINST an underdog of more than three points coming off a SU loss against Kansas State facing an opponent not coming off a non-Saturday SU loss as a favorite. Playing against these underdogs has produced a record of 12-1 ATS. The second system tells us to play AGAINST a Saturday road underdog of more than five points coming off a game against Kansas State. Playing against these road underdogs has produced a record of 19-8 ATS. We will lay the chalk here as the Cowboys roll the Roadrunners on Saturday afternoon in Stillwater.
World Wide Sports
Georgia State vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -45.5
Oregon is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Michigan State and should be lacking no motivation to get that game off their minds. Georgia State will just be outmatched all the way around in this game. Georgia State is 1-1 up to this point in the season but their win over New Mexico State is only their 2nd win in 3 seasons. Oregon is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall plus 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. Georgia State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall plus 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
Sleepyj
Temple -10
Perhaps one of the biggest over reaction games here gents...Temple has beaten Penn St and now the Bearcats of Cincinnati....Now they go on the road to face a Umass team...Problem here for Umass...They have a wounded ND team on deck the following week.....Temple has Charlotte....It may be on the minds of the Owls that a 4-0 start is about to happen however...Temple has scored a total of 61 points this year in two games...They allowed 36....Penn St was a favorite and so was Cincy....Owls are proving everyone wrong right now...It won't be long before they are 4-0 and the value we have left with this team is sucked out....Umass is a team that i think can cause issues however for some teams...Just not the Owls this week...They got throttled by a Colorado Buffaloes team that we witnessed looking like the bad news bears in the opener Vs. Hawaii...I don't believe the Buffs got it that much together in one week...It draws me to the fact that Umass is actually bad against quality teams.....Umass gave up 558 yards to the Buffs...Colorado looked really lost and i have to use the week 1 eye test with them...Umass threw the ball 42 times last week and only completed 24 passes..So just above 50% against that Colorado defense draws concerns...Temple defense is very stout and the running game for Umass is weak at best....I can see Umass throwing the ball 50 times in this game....Turnovers IMO will be a back breaker for the Minutemen here....Colorado ran for a whopping 6.6ypc...Temple has a very good running game...Against Psu and Cincy they gobbled up a total of 360 yards in those two contests on the ground...The also got themselves a total of 6 turnovers...It's tough as a lower grade team to really step up in class Vs. a team who has it rolling right now..In reality Temple can start this season 7-0, and they will....They won't have a real test until they meet up with the Irish on Halloween....If you want to bet this team, now is the time to do it...The numbers will be so far over inflated it might be scary to back this team...Most in part because they are going to blow out this Minutemen team this Saturday...Temple has been the kicking post for years now in CFB....They have a deep squad and bring back all the talent from the last two years...In other words, from a Temple stand point this team is stacked!!...I'm a believer and yes, i'm drinking the kool aid with the kids from South Philly..
Andrew Lange
Ole Miss at Alabama
Play: Under 50.5
The Ole Miss Rebels talked all offseason about becoming a high-power, up-tempo offense and threw two games, they've been true to their word with back-to-back 70+ point efforts. The competition obviously comes into question with FCS bottom feeder UT-Martin and rebuilding Fresno State as the two victims. Saying this weekend's trip to Tuscaloosa will be a step up in class is an understatement. Alabama did a number on both Wisconsin (268 yards) and Middle Tennessee (275 yards) in its two victories.
Ole Miss pulled off the upset in last year's meeting, 23-17, in Oxford. Alabama had a slight edge in the box score but two Crimson Tide turnovers proved costly. Not sure we can put a lot of stock in that game as both quarterbacks and a number of key skill position player have since left.
My biggest question about Ole Miss is its offensive line. They return virtually everyone from last season and obviously looked good in Weeks 1 and 2. However, I go back to last season an vividly remember quarterback Bo Wallace running for his life which resulted in 31 sacks allowed. And when asked to face top-tier front sevens, the Rebels struggled mightily to run the football. In games against Boise State, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, and TCU, Ole Miss averaged just over 2 yards per carry. First-year quarterback Chad Kelly has looked the part but keep in mind he's played just two full games in his career, and they came against two horrendous defenses.
Alabama has some question marks on offense most notably at the quarterback position. Nick Saban is mum on who will play on Saturday though he remains open to playing both Jake Coker and Cooper Bateman. They'll be facing one of the best front sevens in the country. For a good portion of last season, Ole Miss owned arguably the best defense in the country. Because of its speed, the Rebels have the luxury of being able to pressure the quarterback and stop the run without loading up the box. This is key with the losses of defensive backs Cody Prewitt and Senquez Golson (13 combined INTs).
With the betting markets coming in early on Ole Miss, we have the unique situation of Alabama laying less than a touchdown at home. Keep in mind they were -5.5 in Oxford a year ago. The last time Bama was in this profile was 2011 when they closed -5.5 vs. LSU and lost 9-6 in overtime.
Last year's meeting was in Week 6 and both teams were settled at the quarterback position. The game produced 40 points but close to 50 points worth of yards. The quarterback situation this time around is much more unsettled. Kelly looks capable but you worry about this being his first "real" game. And Alabama is still trying to figure out what it has with Coker and Bateman. Then you tack on two top-tier defenses playing in an ultra-important conference game. Not sure we'll see a 51, but the current price of 50.5 still warrants a look towards the under.
Harry Bondi
NAVY -3.5 over East Carolina
Horrible spot for the Pirates, who will be in serious letdown mode after nearly shocking Florida on the road last week. ECU (+21) came charging back from a 31-17 4th-quarter deficit and was driving for the tying score before a fumble cost them the game. Navy, which has won 37 of its last 52 home games, comes in off a bye week and is pumped for its first conference game in program history. Lay the short number.
Alex Smart
Georgia State vs. Oregon
Play: Georgia St +45½
Oregon once again looks like a strong PAC 12 side, but with a possible index finger injury on the throwing hand of Ducks new quarterback Vernon Adams, things may not go as smoothly as need be this week, especially on offense.(This is an independent injury report) I know lowly Georgia State does not exactly bring out a lot of confidence in public bettors even as 45 whopping point underdogs . But in contrarian fashion I feel there is value with this puppy, according to my own power rankings. I expect the powerful Ducks , who could still be licking their wounds after last weeks emotional loss to Mich State, will be happy to build up a big lead, than as the game progresses to fall asleep at the proverbial wheel and just finish this tilt on cruise control. This pick is not about superiority, as we know this is a complete mismatch on paper, but rather a mathematical advantage play based solely on possible edges taking the points.
Ian Cameron
BYU +16.5
My clients and I have cashed tickets with BYU in back-to-back weeks to open the season and I’ll recommend them again catching as high as +17 at UCLA.
UCLA has performed admirably to this point with freshman quarterback Josh Rosen stepping in and executing this Bruins offense at a very high level with 71 points and over 1,000 total yards against Virginia and UNLV. Their offense will be a major test for a BYU defense that is prone to giving up yards. The Cougars though appear fairly strong along the front seven after holding Nebraska and Boise State to a combined 2.8 ypc. A lot of Rosen’s success has come from playing with comfortable leads but if BYU can force the Bruins to be more one dimensional, it’s likely we see a few mistakes from the rookie signal caller.
BYU’s offense looked to be in bad shape with running Jamaal Williams leaving the team and quarterback Taysom Hill suffering a season-ending foot injury in Week 1. However, Tanner Mangum has stepped in for Hill and played solid most specifically at crunch time with two well-documented come-from-behind wins. The Cougars also may have found a solid replacement at running back in senior Adam Hine who rushed for close to 100 yards against Boise State’s strong stop unit.
The Bruins’ defense faced a very sporadic Virginia offense in their opener and took advantage of a UNLV team that saw their starting quarterback Blake Decker leave the game due to a hamstring injury late in the first quarter of a 37-3 romp. UCLA’s defense definitely looks to be an improved group this season with eight starters back but I think BYU will be a taller task that what they faced Weeks 1 and 2.
With Rosen looking the part, UCLA’s stock continues to climb in the betting markets. They are no doubt a PAC-12 title contender but this price indicates an elite-level status that I’m not sure they deserve just yet. Even with a potential emotional letdown from the road underdog, there are enough points to warrant a play.
Otto Sports
Illinois at North Carolina
Play: : Over 64.5
It's hard to even been remotely impressed with Illinois' defensive numbers thus far as it held woeful Kent State and FCS Western Illinois to a combined three points. Go back to last season and eliminate games against FCS Youngstown State and offensively inept Penn State and we see that the Illini allowed over 37 ppg. Even when accounting for better health, a fresh start, and natural improvement, the Illini still grade out as one of the weaker power conference stop units. The step up in class this weekend is so dramatic that I have a difficult time envisioning much in the way of resistance.
North Carolina's offense that is poised for big things with virtually their entire unit back from a year ago. In Week 1, the Tar Heels managed only 13 points against South Carolina but turnovers and failures inside the red zone hampered their output. They had no difficulty moving the football with an average of nearly 7 yards per play.
You leave the door open for improvement with UNC's defense now that Gene Chizik is in charge. However, after allowing 6.53 yards per play and 39 ppg last season, there's a ceiling. After missing parts of last season, a healthy Wes Lunt provides Illinois with a capable signal caller. Lunt was on pace for a solid 2014 with 1,763 yards, 14 TDs, and only 3 INTs. And with Bill Cubit now in charge, the veteran Lunt has a chance to be even better this season.
Weather expected to be perfect in Chapel Hill and with two capable offenses and questionable defenses, the look is towards the over.
Brandon Goble
Arkansas -11.5
That was on hell of a clinker by Arkansas, losing at home to Toledo who was without one of its best players, running back Kareem Hunt. Now, the question is, where do we go from there? Personally, I think it was a one off. Just one of those things.
This week Arkansas plays a weak, really weak, defensive team Texas Tech. Tech is scoring 64 points a game, but allowing 32.5. They have given up 272 yards a game on the ground. Those numbers are not ‘one-offs’. Last year Tech gave up 41.3 points a game and 260.3 yards a game on the ground. They gave up 513.4 yards a game overall last year, and 525.5 a game this year. Like I said, this is a weak, weak, defense.
Last year Arkansas ran for 7 TDs and 438 yards on the ground in a 49-28 romp in Lubbock. No question Tech can pile up the points, but with Arkansas controlling the ground game, the line of scrimmage and the clock it won’t be so easy for Tech to put up enough to cover in this one.
Harry Bondi
UTAH STATE +5.5 over Washingtion
Washington comes in 1-1 overall, including a pointspread-covering 16-13 loss to Boise State (-11), but that was a misleading final score. Trailing 16-0 at the half, the Huskies’ two second-half scoring “drives” netted 21 yards thanks to a 17-yard punt return that resulted in a field goal, a 76-yard punt return for a touchdown and a blocked punt that set up a field goal. Last week, Washington thumped cupcake Sacramento State, 49-0, which makes the team a bit overvalued heading into this week’s game versus visiting Utah State. We used the Aggies (+13) as a Free Play winner last week in a 24-14 loss to Utah and with a bye week on deck, look for a fully focused, top-notch effort here today. Head Coach Matt Wells is 5-1 the week after a straight-up loss in his two seasons with Utah State and we’ll look for veteran, triple-threat QB Chuckie Keaton to give the young and inexperienced Huskie defense some major problems. It’s a wrong-way favorite.
Ross Benjamin
Ole Miss @ Alabama
Play: Alabama -6.5
The Crimson Tide will be out to atone for their only regular season loss last season. They were upset as a 4.0 point favorite at Mississippi 23-17. Alabama opened the season with an impressive neutral site 35-17 win over a very good Wisconsin team. As a matter of fact, many experts predicted the Badgers defense to be elite in their preseason assessments. They very well may be in due time, but it was the polar opposite against Alabama. The Crimson Tide torched the Wisconsin stop unit for 502 yards of total offense. This unequivocally will be the sternest test thus far for both of these teams. There’s something very enticing about Alabama being a single digit home favorite, and also playing with revenge.
Any home favorite (Alabama) of 5.5 or more, coming off two consecutive wins by 17 points or more, versus an opponent (Ole Miss) that scored 42 points or more in each of their previous two games, resulted in the home favorite going 23-6 ATS (79.3%) since 1992. Play on Alabama minus the points.
Brandon Shively
Rutgers vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -9
Penn State has a huge edge in this game and are undervalued in my opinion. This Rutgers team is in shambles currently. They only return 10 starters this season. Oh, make it nine now that 1st TM BIG 10 receiver Carroo is out. He averaged 19 yards a catch last season and had 10 TD's. He had 3 TD's and averaged 25.9 yards a catch this season through the first two games. This guy missing is huge. That now makes 6 Rutgers players that have been dismissed from the team. On top of that, they have a lengthy injury report so this is a team that is not obviously working with a full roster. And if that isn't enough, now Head Coach Kyle Flood has been suspended.
I can't see Rutgers being focused at all for this game with all the off-field distractions. To make it worse, the team has to travel on the road after losing a heartbreaker last week. Rutgers trailed for the majority of the game vs. Washington State before taking the lead with 1:30 left. They thought they had the win only for Washington State to score with 13 seconds left. I don't see them being able to regain their composure playing @ Penn State.
Rutgers has a QB with little experience. The offensive line lost 113 starts. The defense gave up 212 yards a game on the ground last year. Surely Penn State can get their running game going against this weak defense of Rutgers.
Penn State actually ran the ball well last week. They averaged 5.1 yards a rush on 39 carries. I like the fact that they want to establish the run. Hackenberg is a NFL QB and I have to think he picks apart this inexperienced and thin Rutgers secondary.
Penn State has a Top 15 defense in my opinion. They only allowed 18.6 ppg last season. They only allowed 2.9 yards a rush. The Nittany Lions have big, strong linebackers. The secondary is very experienced as well and talented.
This is a statement game for Penn State and they are catching Rutgers at a very vulnerable time. James Franklin has a huge coaching edge in this game also. Look for Penn State to roll with a final score in the 34-10 range.
Brian Hay
Stanford vs. USC
Play: USC -10
Southern California and Stanford can be counted on to play very good defense tonight. The problem for Stanford is their defense is going up against a very good offensive team and USC is not. Stanford's lack of a ground attack will cost them on Saturday. USC will unleash a handful of talented backs on Stanford, which will pay off as the game develops. I see USC pulling away in the 4th quarter and covering the spread.
Ari Atari
Manchester City vs. West Ham United
Play: Manchester City -1½ -135
City suffered a fairly comprehensive defeat versus Italian giants Juventus in Europe midweek. They were a little lost at times when Juve had the ball. However this is England, and here, City reign supreme for the moment. Additionally star striker Sergio Aguero missed the game through injury which gave Juventus a lot of heart, and allowed them to play a higher defensive line than they usually would had he been playing, but he is expected to return for Saturdays game.
In attack West Ham have looked quite impressive this year, with Payet proving to be a great signing so far. With that in mind though, City have yet to concede a single goal in the league this season and as good as West Ham look going forward, in defence they have looked suspect at times. They conceded four goals to newly promoted Bournemouth, and I fully expect City to take advantage of this. The pace of Sterling has enabled Silva to have a little more time on the ball and as a result City look far more potent in attack. New 58 million pounds signing, the Belgian winger, Kevin De Bruyne adds another dimension to an already very powerful attack. City should be fairly comfortable winners in this one.