Drew Martin
Auburn at LSU
Play: LSU -7
After narrowly getting past its first two opponents, Auburn heads into Saturday’s game at LSU with issues at the quarterback position and health among the stop unit with a handful of questionable status tags placed on various key players.
LSU looked strong in last week’s win at Mississippi State despite not covering. They dominated the play in the trenches by holding MSU to 43 yards on the ground while gaining 266 yards on the strength of Leonard Fournette’s 159 yards. Fournette and the LSU rushing attack looks to match up well vs. an Auburn defensive front seven that allowed 238 rushing yards to Louisville and 161 yards to FCS Jacksonville State. All told, if you take away the sack yardage, Auburn allowed 441 yards to both opponents on the ground.
Auburn quarterback Jeremy Johnson looked unsure of himself in both games as he threw five interceptions and was unable to do much on the ground with only 18 yards. Last year’s starter Nick Marshall threw only seven INTs all season and was a key part of AU’s ground game with 798 yards including 119 yards in last year’s 41-7 blowout over LSU. Making quick and effective decisions is paramount for a quarterback in Gus Malzahn’s system and right now, Johnson looks lost.
Because of needing to accounting for both the run and pass, LSU struggled mightily in last year’s meeting as Auburn rolled up 566 yards. But with Johnson not ready for primetime, it’s going to be very tricky to come close to that type of production. Note also Miles’ ability to adjust. In last year’s upset loss to Mississippi State, LSU allowed 507 total yards including 302 on the ground. Last week was a far different story with the Bulldogs notching 378 yards and 43 yards rushing; a lot of which coming late in the fourth quarter when playing from behind. Look for LSU to not only adjust but feast on Auburn’s current instability on both sides of the football. Take the home favorite.
Alatex
South Carolina vs. Georgia
Play: South Carolina +16.5
South Carolina-Georgia has become one of the better rivalries in the SEC and usually is a big factor in the SEC East race. South Carolina has won four of the past five meetings, including a 38-35 upset win last year as 6.5 point underdogs. The point spread this year is totally out of character for this series, with four straight meetings showing a line of three or less until last year’s 6.5.
Obviously the state of the South Carolina quarterback situation is the biggest factor in the huge number here. Former walkon Perry Orth took over for starter Connor Mitch last week after Mitch separated his shoulder in the 2nd quarter. Orth had good numbers in the loss to Kentucky, going 13-20 for 179 and a touchdown after taking over. He also through a late interception to seal the 26-22 loss. Orth looked like a serviceable quarterback and Spurrier will coach him up this week, so I would expect the Gamecocks to be fine on offense.
Freshman Lorenzo Nunez also took snaps under center against the Wildcats, rushing twice for 40 yards. Spurrier said the dual-threat quarterback could also play more against Georgia, but was noncommittal about whether that might happen.
"It remains to be seen," Spurrier said. "He did play a little bit. Looking back now, we could have played him some more. But we actually moved the ball. We did good the second half. We had one interception, I think, and we had to kick field goals, but we actually moved the ball with Perry in there pretty well the second half. But Lorenzo could play some."
A bigger factor in the game will be the South Carolina rushing defense. They have allowed over 200 yards in both games at a terrible 5.9 yards per carry. Now they face a Georgia offense that features two of the top runners in the SEC in Rob Chubb and Sony Michel. The Bulldogs are averaging 262 yards per game thus far and will look to exploit the struggling Gamecock run defense.
Georgia is not without controversy at quarterback as starter Greyson Lambert, a Virginia transfer, struggled last week against Vanderbilt. Lambert started 0-7 against the Commodores and took plenty of heat from the Bulldogs’ faithful. Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and Head Coach Mark Richt stood by Lambert and expect a better performance this week. Schottenheimer pointed out it wasn’t just Lambert who had a bad game against Vanderbilt. He cited pass protection in certain situations and play calls, especially early against Vanderbilt, that backfired.
Georgia certainly looks to be the better team overall here, but South Carolina seems to always find a way to play the Dogs tough if not beat them. This looks like Spurrier’s weakest team in some time after two games, but the talent level hasn’t fallen off that much this quickly in Columbia. The rushing defense does scare me somewhat, but barring a complete explosion by the Georgia run game, the Gamecocks should be able to keep this one close. Take the points.
Allen Eastman
Kansas State -9
Kansas State is a team that no one is talking about in the Big 12 this year. But Bill Snyder is one of the best coaches in college football history. He just fields a competitive teams every year. The Wildcats are 2-0 this year, and they have outscored their opponents 64-3 in their two games. Louisiana Tech offers more competition this week. But the Bulldogs are coming off a loss to Sun Belt team Western Kentucky. Now they have to head out to Manhattan to take on a very good Wildcats team. Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games, and the Bulldogs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams from the Big 12. Kansas State is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games overall, and I had this spread around 14.5. I think that this will be another easy win for K-State.
DAVE COKIN
SAN JOSE STATE AT OREGON STATE
PLAY: SAN JOSE STATE +7
There’s an interesting storyline set to unfold as San Jose State challenges Oregon State on Saturday. This involves Seth Collins, the new starting QB for the Beavers.
Collins was almost signed, sealed and delivered to San Jose State. He was set to enroll early, but through a somewhat convoluted set of occurrences, ended up changing his mind and decommitted in January and eventually landed instead in Corvallis.
San Jose State head coach Ron Caragher insists there are no hard feelings, but I’m not so sure I’m buying that. My guess is that the coach would love to get the best of a player who spurned his team, and I’ll bet there are going to plenty of San Jose players who feel exactly the same way.
As for the matchup, it could well be a step down in class for the Spartans after what they faced last week at Air Force. First off, they won’t have to deal with that option attack that gave them big problems last Saturday. The two-QB system will be in place again Saturday for SJSU, although Caragher is hoping that either Joe Gray or Kenny Potter is good enough to become a true #1 at some point soon.
The Spartans could be without LB Christian Tago for this game. The leader of the Spartans defense got kayoed on a helmet to helmet hit last week and his status is currently questionable. Tago is a dynamic performer and it’s worth noting that SJSU was down just one point in the fourth quarter when Tago went down. San Jose seemed to fall apart after that and Air Force ran off the last 20 points.
In any event, I tagged the final score of last week’s San Jose game as misleading. While the offense wasn’t sharp for the Spartans, this was anyone’s game through three quarters and I feel as though I’m getting a little value here off the blowout final score.
Oregon State was manhandled in the trenches last week at Michigan. The Beavers got out of the gate quickly and led 7-0, but were obliterated the rest of the way. San Jose is obviously not Michigan, but I believe there’s a legit chance for the Spartans to rev up their west coast offense here. The Beavers were my lowest rated PAC-12 team heading into the season, and I haven’t seen anything to alter that opinion thus far. Oregon State is very young, they’ve got a true freshman QB and new schemes on both offense and defense. Gary Anderson should do a good job here eventually, but I think this has a chance to be a lost season for the Beavers.
I’ve got these two teams with similar power ratings, but given the conditions I’m inclined to believe this is a game the road team can win, and I believe this line is higher than it ought to be. Getting a full TD with San Jose State is good enough for me and this game has already been sent out as a play. I’m on San Jose plus the points and also sprinkled a little money line into the mix as well.
Brian Hay
Stanford vs. USC
Play: USC -10
Southern California and Stanford can be counted on to play very good defense tonight. The problem for Stanford is their defense is going up against a very good offensive team and USC is not. Stanford's lack of a ground attack will cost them on Saturday. USC will unleash a handful of talented backs on Stanford, which will pay off as the game develops. I see USC pulling away in the 4th quarter and covering the spread.
Scott Spreitzer
Nebraska vs. Miami
Play: Nebraska +3
We have a pretty good read on the Huskers so far this season. Going back to August radio in the heartland, we felt the Big Red was laying too many points in their opener against BYU, and even without the Hail Mary at the end of the game, the Cougars would have left Lincoln spread winners. Nebraska has dealt with numerous key injuries and suspensions since the final week or two of August practice. But they're getting healthy as they make their first road trip of the season. Nebraska will get the services of TE Cethan Carter after serving a suspension. Carter is expected to be a huge part of HC Mike Riley's offense. Defensively, Josh Banderas is expected to return at LB after missing last week's game with a groin injury. Banderas is one of the key defenders on the 2015 stop unit. With a couple of key cogs back in the mix, we expect the Husker secondary to be able to focus on stopping the big pass. Miami may be missing one of their top WR's on Saturday with Braxton Berrios downgraded to doubtful. Offensively, as reported, the Huskers lead the nation with 51 plays of 10 yards or more through two games. They'll be a tough stop for a Miami defense with holes and facing their first real test of the season after games against Bethune-Cookman and FAU. Miami allowed Owl RB's Warren & Howell to run for a combined 210 yards on 24 carries, an average of 8.75 yards per carry. And let's not forget, the Owls, who trailed Miami by just three points at the half, didn't have their starting QB Jaquez Johnson, who was injured and knocked from the game in the first quarter. FAU had to go the rest of the contest with a RS Frosh behind center. I do believe the Hurricanes' defense will be out-matched in this one. Nebraska enters on an 8-1 ATS run on the road and I'm recommending a play on the Huskers plus the points.
Will Cash Sports
Nebraska / Miami Under 58
These two teams are getting a little too much credit for putting up big scores on turd schools. Once these teams get after it the defenses will be flying around. I wish it was a night game, but it may be a bigger advantage to have it in the afternoon when it is hot and humid as hell Miami. Hopefully the 'Skers will get nice and tired. FYI: Other reasons I like this -- NU has had issues running the ball. Ameer Abdullah was a huge loss. And I think Miami will be giving a large dose of Joe Yearby and Mark Walton in the run game.
Wunderdog
Stanford vs. USC
Pick: USC -9.5
The Stanford Cardinal won just eight games last year, and finished without a 1,000 yard rusher for the first time since 2007. They are going to need a big year from QB Kevin Hogan who has been an up-and-down entity through his first two seasons. Stanford has a new kicker, punter, and a lot of question marks on defense, as well as defensive depth. USC has all the weapons offensively to really have an impact in this game. Cody Kessler is a big-time QB, and has one of the top offensive lines in the country, and the Trojans will be one of the top offensive units in the country. Stanford has struggled offensively in two games, but the defense has played well, but against a pair of bankrupt offensive teams. That all changes this week. The Trojans fit a 97-33 ATS situation, and have line value here as well. Steve Sarkisian is 10-1 ATS in his coaching career as a favorite in the 3.5 to 10 point range. Make the play on USC.
Harry Bondi
UMASS (+11) over Temple
Classic let down spot for the surprising Owls, who are now a double-digit road favorite after winning outright the last two weeks as an underdog. In last week's win over Cinci as a 5-point dog, Temple was outgained by a wide margin and was the beneficiary of five Bearcat turnovers. This week some players and media were actually crying about the team not making the Top 25! UMass has the best QB in the MAC so we'll grab the points with the passing home dog.
River City Sharps
Navy -4.5
We got the result we wanted last week that is the fuel for setting up this play for the Sharps. East Carolina travels to Navy on Saturday afternoon for an interesting matchup between two pretty good offenses. The situation is setup by ECU’s close call vs. Florida last week after barely squeaking by FCS Towson the week before. Meanwhile, Navy has just played one game (opening weekend easy win over Colgate) and so they are coming off a bye week, while ECU played a physical game in the Swamp against the Gators. ECU HC Ruffin McNeill is just 11-19 ATS on the road as head man with the Pirates and East Carolina is 0-8 against the number in conference road games over the past three seasons. The Midshipmen have terrific leadership from the QB position with Keenan Reynolds and the running game of Chris Swain as they try and confuse the Pirates with their unique triple-option attack. This is a play that is based more on the “schedule situation” with these two teams than the actual talent on the sidelines. Navy is a perfect 4-0 ATS at home going back to last season, while the Pirates are 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games overall. East Carolina comes into this game banged up, especially off the physical effort at Florida, while Navy looks healthy and fresh coming into this home game, a place where they always seem to give their best effort. Too much triple-option here for ECU as Navy wins this game by at least a touchdown.
Stephen Nover
Tulsa +30.5
Oklahoma had to exert to a lot of energy in getting past Tennessee on the road last week. The Sooners rallied from 14 points down in the fourth quarter to pull out a double-overtime victory.
Tulsa is taking this in-state rivalry more serious than the Sooners, who open Big 12 play in their next game against unbeaten West Virginia.The Sooners have a bye next week and aren't going to be real excited about this matchup.
The teams have met the past two seasons and Oklahoma was favored by 23 and 24 points, respectively, covering each time. The Sooners blew out the Golden Hurricane in those games, so there is likely to be an overconfidence factor. But now the Sooners are laying an extra touchdown and Tulsa is much better than in the two previous seasons when they were coached by Bill Blankenship, who the team quit on.
The Golden Hurricane have been re-energized with the arrival of first-year head coach Philip Montgomery, who was Art Briles' offensive coordinator at Baylor. So Montgomery is familiar with Oklahoma. Baylor averaged 41 points on the Sooners the last three seasons when Montgomery was in Waco, covering each time.
Montgomery has made Tulsa relevant offensively again. The Golden Hurricane are 2-0 for the first time since 2009 on the basis of averaging 43.5 points and 609 yards per game. Only five teams average more yards per game than Tulsa.
Tulsa quarterback Dane Evans is an experienced pro and has several excellent receivers. The Golden Hurricane can score on any team. They have covered five of the last six times they faced a foe with a winning record and also are 4-1 ATS during their past five away contests.
Tony George
Notre Dame +3
The Irish have found ways to win despite losing a RB and QB so far this season, and while Georgia Tech has racked up a ton of points, this is a huge step up in class and a classic over reaction case. GT posting up over 67 points a game and Notre Dame struggling with Virginia last week. Looks like Brian Kelly should just fold up camp and call it a year with a 2nd string QB and RB now against a wishbone offense.
No way folks, Notre Dame has been working on defending this offense since fall camp and they have the better talent although when you read in the papers and online it is depleted, 90% of the time a Notre Dame 2nd string player could start for 75% of the programs in the nation. GT on a 9-0 ATS spread run and yes they finally won a big game last year over Georgia in OT, but this is a huge wake up call under Touchdown Jesus. Bear in mind GT runs it and is one dimensional, and the Irish defense knows that - load up with the big boys and dare them to throw which they cannot.
Doug Upstone
Ball State vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Ball State -4½
Play Against home teams like EASTERN MICHIGAN in the first month of the season, after closing out last year with four or more straight losses, with five offensive starters returning in the first month of the season. Yes EMU got a very rare road victory last week, but to expect them to come up big again with so few offensive starters back is a big task. In the last 10 years, teams like Eastern Mich. are desultory 4-26 ATS in this spot.
Tony Karpinski
Rutgers vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -9
A rare night game for Penn St and Rutgers has all kinds of issues with coach and player suspensions. Rutgers has shown they have a weak passing coverage, giving up 339 a game. And they have been just lit up with injuries. WR Leonte Carroo is a very tough cover, but with his suspension for violating team conduct, doesn't bode well for Rutgers, in the air. Penn State is a weird team to figure out, not sure who is going to show up? QB Christian Hackenberg has to become the player that PSU has been expecting for several years. He has been terrible to say the least, this is a game he has to dominate. Sr DE Carl Nassib and Austin Johnson have been very good and will give Rutgers many problems in this matchup. Chris Godwin always seems to make the big catches when needed in particular when the Lions need the first down. Lions pull away in the 2nd half with a big win here.
ASA
UMass +10½
The public has gotten wind of Temple following their two straight upset wins to open the season which has forced the oddsmakers to over adjust their number on this game so let's step in and take the value with UMass as a double-digit home dog. The Owls have not only won two games but they've been HUGE wins for their program coming against Penn State and at Cincinnati. Temple is 2-0 but they've been outgained by their two opponents in total yards (613 to 740) and in yards per play (5.11 to 5.44). Those are red flags and tell us they are not as good as advertised and the big reason they're 2-0 is turnovers. Last week at Cincy, Temple allowed Gunner Kiel to throw for over 420 yards and gave up over 550 total yards but they benefitted from a +4 turnover margin. UMass has a capable offense with QB Blake Frohnapfel (say that 5 times fast) who was 20 of 34 for 225 yards against Colorado last week and has solid career numbers (3300 yards, 23 TD's to 10 INT's in 2014). Temple allowed less than 200 yards per game passing last season BUT they were 98th in pass attempts per game against them meaning that yardage average is skewed. UMass only scored on half of their redzone possessions last week and we expect them to convert this weekend against a Temple team primed for a letdown. Great situational play on a home dog!