Sean Higgs
Ole Miss vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -7
Nice revenge spot for the Tide. I will gladly take Saban in a pay-back mode. I had Ole Miss last year in this spot, but that was a different situation. As much as their new QB has a nice pedigree (Jim Kelly), he isn't him. I think the youngster is in for a rough outing against a defense that is always among the best in the land. Beating Tenn-Martin and Fresno and dropping 70 is not even on the same planet as what they will face Saturday night. Bama is bringing their QB along slowly because when you have NFL OL and RBs, you can do that. This is going to be a methodical take-down and the Tide should win this by 10+.
Sam Martin
Northwestern at Duke
Play: Northwestern
Wildcats enter the Top 25 this week after a pair of impressive victories against Stanford (won outright as a ten-point home underdog) and Eastern Illinois (covered the spread by 17 points in a 41-0 shutout win). While the pollsters are starting to take a liking to Northwestern, the sportsbooks are still hesitant and they have installed the Wildcats as a road underdog at Duke.
We love taking the points with Northwestern and we fully expect them to win outright against an unproven Blue Devils team. Duke played well in big wins vs. Tulane and NC Central, but haven't yet been tested and will go up against an very good NW defense here. Anyone who watched that Stanford vs. NW game in Week One know the Wildcats won that game in a legitimate fashion. Blue Devils are primarily a rushing offense, and NW held both of their first two opponents to 85 rushing yards or less. Fully confident they can shut down Duke's rushing attack and not at all convinced Duke will be able to contain a hungry and confident Wildcats rushing attack. This game stays close early, but Northwestern wears down the Duke defense in the second half and wins this game outright!
Larry Ness
Florida at Kentucky
Prediction: Florida
Kentucky HAS to feel pretty good about winning 26-22 at South Carolina last Saturday. The Wildcats are off to a 1-0 start in the SEC for first time since 2007 but haven't opened 2-0 in SEC play since 1977. The Wildcats ended a 22-game SEC road losing streak with last Saturday's win in Columbia and while Kentucky is back in Lexington for this game against the Gators, the Wildcats will need to end Florida's current 28-game win streak over them, which stands as the longest active streak in the NCAA. Could this be Kentucky's time? After all, back in Gainesville last year, Florida connected on a 51-yard FG to tie it with 3:53 remaining, before going on to win in THREE overtime periods, 36-30.
Yes, Kentucky has opened 2-0 but needed an interception late in the game to hold off South Carolina AND has been outscored by a combined 41-18 in the second half this season. “This team we’re playing is not your same old Kentucky,” Florida’s new head coach Jim McElwain told reporters of the program that has not finished over .500 since 2009. “These guys are really good.” McElwain’s Florida team is off to a 2-0 start but MOST (if not ALL) of the publicity has been focused on McElwain’s tirade directed at RB Kelvin Taylor on the sideline last Saturday after the tailback made a throat-slash gesture and was penalized in the 31-24 win over East Carolina. McElwain has told reporters he regretted the outburst but Taylor has dropped to third string on the depth chart.
I won’t make more of the incident because it’s dangerous to draw conclusions when one has ZERO idea if a situation like that will have ANY effect on a team. What I do know is that Florida has won 10 straight SEC openers and is 37-4 SU in the month of September since 2005. Then there is the “not so small” matter of 28 consecutive wins over Kentucky that Florida will put on the line this Saturday. My bet says make it 29 in a row, so I’ll lay the ‘short’ price.
AC Dinero
Louisiana Tech vs. Kansas State
Play: Louisiana Tech +9.5
This is on odd line to me. Kansas St usually thrives in spots like this against mid majors. Bill Snyder is a great coach. He relies on JUCO's who only has 12 (6 6) starters back including a new QB. LT also has 12 (7 5) back, not including QB Jeff Driskoll who transferred from Florida. This is a solid mid major team who attacks on defense. It looks a little to easy to take Kansas St in this game, so will go with LT
Chip Chirimbes
Louisiana Tech vs. Kansas State
Play:Louisiana Tech +10
Kansas State (2-0) opened with dominating wins over Texas-SA and South Dakota has allowed just three points against these two weaklings. Louisiana Tech has had extra time to get ready after their 41-38 loss at Western Kentucky as the Bulldogs are 8th in scoring and 11th in total offense. Kansas State loSt starting quarterback Jesse Ertz to injury and now must rely on untested Joe Hubener and two redshirt-freshman running backs. Jeff Driskel who started 20 games at Florida before transferring the Tech leads their high powered offensive attack and will put up enough points against the Wildcats to get the CASH.
Power Sports
Texas El Paso vs. New Mexico State
Pick: New Mexico State
UTEP, who was 7-6 SU/8-4-1 ATS last year and in a bowl, figured to take a step back in '15. Now though, it's looking more and more like a "leap" back as not only have they opened w/ B2B blowout losses (to Arkansas & Texas Tech), but they have lost star RB Aaron Jones for the season. This looks like a bad spot to lay pts.
Jones averaged 5.5 yards per carry and finished w/ 1321 yds for the season in 2014. He had 139 yds at the time of the injury last week vs. Texas Tech and consider the Miners still lost the game by 49 points. They had only 58 yds rushing (1.7 YPC) in the opener vs. Arkansas and obviously a major concern is a defense that has allowed 117 pts in two games. Losing by an average of 42 PPG is not the way any team wants to open its season and now UTEP is w/o its best player. This is a team that is only 3-12 SU/4-11 ATS its last 15 road games.
The fact that the Miners are still favored in this one doesn't speak too well of New Mexico State, but the Aggies are coming off an outright loss as 4.5-pt favorites to Georgia State (by only two points). They've also lost seven straight times to UTEP, who w/ the exception of New Mexico is considered their main rival. On the positive side of things, NMSU gained over 500 yds of total offense last week and this Miners' defense has already shown it can give up points in bunches. Believe it or not, the Aggies are 2-0 SU/ATS the only two times in the previous two seasons that the line was three points or less. UTEP is 0-5 ATS L5 times as a road favorite of three points or less, losing outright every time!
Chip Chirimbes
Louisiana Tech vs. Kansas State
Play: Louisiana Tech +10
Kansas State (2-0) opened with dominating wins over Texas-SA and South Dakota has allowed just three points against these two weaklings. Louisiana Tech has had extra time to get ready after their 41-38 loss at Western Kentucky as the Bulldogs are 8th in scoring and 11th in total offense. Kansas State loSt starting quarterback Jesse Ertz to injury and now must rely on untested Joe Hubener and two redshirt-freshman running backs. Jeff Driskel who started 20 games at Florida before transferring the Tech leads their high powered offensive attack and will put up enough points against the Wildcats to get the cash.
Jimmy Boyd
Auburn +7
The more I look at this game the more I like the value here with Auburn catching a touchdown. The public perception of Auburn couldn't be worse after that near upset loss to Jacksonville State, while LSU is getting plenty of praise from their 21-19 win at Mississippi State, which they led 21-6 in the 4th quarter.
The thing to keep in mind with Auburn is that they opened with a huge game on a neutral site against Louisville out of the ACC and were taking on a FCS opponent with their conference opener on deck against LSU. Head coach Guz Malzahn was begging his players to take Jacksonville State seriously, repeatedly saying in the media that this is a good team. I’m not making excuses for their near upset loss, but I don't think Auburn's players took that message seriously and didn't show up to play.
On the flip side of this, I wasn’t overly impressed with LSU’s win at Mississippi State. Sure a win on the road in the SEC is not easy, but I’m way down on the Bulldogs this year. LSU nearly gave away a 15-point lead in the 4th quarter, as Mississippi State failed on a 2-point conversion that would have tied it with 4 minutes to go. The Bulldogs also outgained LSU 378 to 337 with a 27 to 16 edge in first downs.
My big concern with LSU coming into the year was the quarterback play and it remains a concern after watching Brandon Harris complete just 9 passes for 71 yards against a Mississippi State defense that returned just 3 starters. From what I see, LSU’s offense is almost exclusively sophomore running back Leonard Fournette, who carried it 28 times for 159 yards and 3 scores. That’s important to note, as Fournette had just 42 yards in last year’s blowout loss to Auburn.
While the Auburn defense didn’t look great against Jacksonville State, most of their problems came against the pass, as they allowed 277 yards through the air. They did give up 161 yards on the ground, but the Gamecocks needed 46 attempts, which comes out to just 3.5 yards/carry. It’s also worth noting that they allowed 238 yards rushing against Louisville and won that game 31-24 (led 31-10 late in the 4th before giving up 2 late touchdowns).
When you are as one-dimensional as what LSU looks to be offensively, it makes it easy on the defense and hard to pull away, which is exactly what we saw last week in their game versus Mississippi State. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Auburn won this game outright. It's certainly a possibility if Jeremy Johnson takes care of the football and a motivated Auburn defense keeps Fournette from taking over the game.
Jack Jones
Ole Miss +7
The Ole Miss Rebels were my dark horse pick to win the SEC West this season. They certainly have not disappointed up to this point. They have improved their win total in each of Hugh Freeze’s first three seasons on the job. They were ranked as high as No. 3 in the country last year before injuries really decimated this team down the stretch.
The scary part is that this is Freeze’s best team yet with 16 returning starters, and they are loaded with talent after the tremendous job he’s been able to do in recruiting. This is no longer a young team as the Rebels boast 19 upperclassmen starters. This is a talented, experienced team now that is hungry to break through and win the SEC West. They know that it goes through Alabama.
The only question on this team coming into this season was who would take over for Bo Wallace at quarterback, but that’s been answered emphatically. The Rebels have put up over 70 points in consecutive weeks with a 76-3 win over Tennessee-Martin and a 73-21 triumph against Fresno State. They have averaged 74.5 points and 634 total yards per game, while the defense has only yielded 12.0 points and 303 yards per game.
Quarterback Chad Kelly, a junior college transfer who led his team to the NJCAA National Title while hitting 40-of-53 passes against the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, has been a stud this far. He may already be the most underrated quarterback in the country. Kelly has completed 72.5% of his passes for 557 yards with six touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 46 yards and two more scores.
Alabama does have the better wins thus far over Wisconsin and Middle Tennessee, but it’s not like the Crimson Tide have looked all that impressive in doing so. They will be motivated following a loss to Ole Miss last year, but I really believe the Rebels have the better team in 2015.
Jake Coker hasn’t looked very good in his first two starts, throwing for 427 yards with two touchdown and one interception through two games. The question coming into the season for Alabama was at quarterback, and I don't believe it's been answered yet. Coker is going to have to make some plays to beat Ole Miss by more than a touchdown, and I simply don't think he is capable of making a difference. Kelly will be the difference-maker in this one.
The Crimson Tide have consistently been overvalued here of late, going 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Alabama is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Ole Miss is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five September games. In fact, the Rebels are 8-0 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. This team is still not getting the credit it deserves.
Jim Feist
Pirates vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 6
Pittsburgh is a long way from home with a middling offenses, 15th in runs scored, 20th in slugging and heads to Dodger stadium, a huge park that is tough to hit in. At least they have a strong arm going in lefty Francisco Liriano (3.45 ERA, 10-7). He is 6-3 on the road with a 2.47 ERA. The Under is 3-1-1 when the Pirates face the National League West. They have to face Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw (2.12 ERA). He has allowed 1 run or less in 7 straight starts! The under is 10-3 in the Dodgers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record and 8-2 under the total at home. In addition the Under is 7-1 in Dodgers last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Dave Price
Penn State -9
The perception on Penn State is down right now due to its 1-1 (0-2 ATS) start. I believe that's why there is value in backing the Nittany Lions as only 9-point home favorites over Rutgers when this line should be much higher. Penn State lost 10-27 to Temple in its opener, and only beat Buffalo 27-14 as a 17-point favorite last week. But this team still has an elite defense, giving up 301 yards per game and 4.6 per play thus far. The offense will come around, and it has a great chance to do so this week. Rutgers was just beaten at home 34-37 by Washington State last week, and it gave up 559 total yards to the Cougars. The Scarlet Knights were actually outgained by 157 yards in the loss, so they were dominated worse than the final score shows. But the big key here is that Rutgers is going through some serious turmoil right now. Their head coach has been suspended, as have several key players, including top WR Leonte Carroo. They have about the longest injury list that you'll ever see in college football, too. Rutgers is just not in a good frame of mind right now, and Penn State is looking to get right after a lackluster start. It's the perfect storm for the Nittany Lions.
Dennis Macklin
UNLV vs. Michigan
Play: UNLV +35
Despite the 0-2 record and this huge number, the Rebels are much improved under Tony Sanchez. UNLV led Northern Illinois at the half and was down just 17-0 at half to UCLA despite losing their quarterback early and giving up a pick six. The UNLV defense gave Rosen fits! Harbaugh's crew lost at Utah in a game they were clearly second best and was life and death to beat Pac 12 bottom feeder Oregon State. Harbaugh has shown UNLV no respect calling it that school from Vegas and has nationally ranked BYU on deck. The Wolverines are the next Harbaugh transformation that DID NOT come overnight. Michigan wins this by 14-21 points, well below the number.
Joseph D'Amico
South Carolina vs. Georgia
Play: South Carolina +16½
I know South Carolina has a backup QB in Perry Orth, but he has some very big weapons at his disposal in RB, Brandon Wilds and WR, Pharoh Cooper. On the flipside of the field, Georgia is a top-10 team but the erratic play of QB, Greyson Lambert really has me leaning against them. Yes, Nick Chubb can run but S.C. is strong against the rush and I feel a line of +17 points is giving the Bulldogs too much credit here. I know how good LB, Jordan Jenkins is but the Gamecocks have a LB of their own in Skai Moore who already has 5 INT's. South Carolina is 6-1-1 ATS the L8 meetings in this series. take the points with the Gamecocks.
John Martin
Auburn vs. LSU
Play: Under 49
This head-to-head series has been very low-scoring, and I look for it to continue to be that way in 2015. Auburn and LSU have combined for 48 or fewer points in 11 of the past 14 meetings. LSU's offense is hampered by poor quarterback play, and it is going to rely exclusively on the running game, just like it did in its 21-19 win over Mississippi State last week. LSU does still boast an elite defense and will be able to shut down an Auburn offense that frankly isn't that good this year. Auburn only managed 20 points at the end of regulation against Jacksonville State last week. Auburn also only managed 327 total yards against Louisville in its opener. Both teams are going to struggle to move the football in this one.
Art Aronson
Royals vs. Tigers
Play: Over 8½
The visitors hand the ball to Edinson Volquez (13-8, 3.59 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits over five innings in an 8-3 loss to the Tribe on Monday. Volquez has been all over the map with his consistency of late, while he's 2-1 over his last five starts, he's posted a poor 5.00 ERA in that span (and note that Volquez is a pedestrian 5-5 with a 3.77 road ERA to date as well). The home side counters with Matt Boyd (1-5, 8.02 ERA) who was shelled for six runs off seven hits and two walks over 1 2/3's innings in his team's eventual 15-7 loss to the Royals on Thursday. Boyd has been the very definition of a "gas can" since joining the rotation and has allowed at least five runs in three of his six starts since coming over from the Blue Jays. With these two starters clearly struggling with their command, the OVER does indeed become an intriguing investment opportunity.