Black Widow
Eastern Michigan +4.5
Eastern Michigan has shown me a lot in its first two games. It outgained Ole Dominion by 31 yards in a 34-38 home loss at 6.5-point underdogs in the opener in a game it easily could have won. The Eagles then went on the road last week and throttled Wyoming 48-29 as 13-point underdogs, outgaining the Cowboys by 44 total yards. QB Brogan Roback was awesome against Wyoming, going 17 of 24 passing for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception. Roback should find plenty of success through the air against a Ball State defense that gave up 36 points to Virginia Military in its opener. It won that game just 48-36 despite being a 34-point favorite. It outgained VMI by only 20 yards. The Cardinals then lost to Texas A&M 23-56 last week. Last year, EMU lost to Ball State 30-45 on the road, but actually outgained the Cardinals 503-440 in that game. It's payback time a year later at home this time around.
Ray Monohan
Air Force vs. Michigan State
Play: Air Force +24½
This is a classic letdown situation for Michigan State which will be hosting the Falcons. I don't like the noon start time for Air Force but at the same time there won't be near the buzz at Spartan Stadium for that kickoff like there was last week when they got the big win against Oregon. Air Force's option will eventually find some room to run and make it hard for the Spartans to run away and hide...and win by 4 scores. Air Force might be the top team in the MWC when all is said and done. Don't discount them here.
Marc Lawrence
Northern Illinois vs. Ohio State
Play: Northern Illinois +35½
Edges - Huskies: 9-1 ATS versus Big Ten opponents. Buckeyes: 4-14 ATS in the 2nd of a 3-game home stand. With NIU 59-13 SU over the past five-plus seasons, with only TWO losses by more than 30 points, we recommend a 1* play on Northern Illinois.
Brandon Lee
Stanford +9½
Right now Stanford's loss at Northwestern doesn't look great, but that's a very good Northwestern team and it's never easy starting the season on the road against a quality opponent. The Cardinal bounced back in their second game and got the offense on track. USC has looked great in their first two games, but have played two cupcake opponents in Arkansas State and Idaho. I believe Stanford's road test against the Wildcats is going to pay off in this matchup. I still think the Cardinal are capable of winning the Pac-12 North and potentially the conference title. This is way too many points for a rivalry game. The gap in talent is not as much as this spread indicates and these two teams have a history of playing each other close.
Peter Brown
Utah -14
Despite the loss of QB Wilson (check status) in the first half last week the UTES still brought a suffocating defense to their win. Perhaps one of the most underrated defenses in the country, Utah has been stopping teams the past 3 seasons without anyone noticing. Utah has won 3 straight in this series with Fresno St. And has dominated he scoreboard. This season, Fresno comes in off of a humiliating 73-21 loss to Ole Miss. The Bulldogs gave up 700+ yards of total offense to the Rebels and they don't even have a running back as good as Booker!! This game could get out of hand early and often. Don't be surprised if the Utes shout of Fresno St. Here as well.
Nelly
Air Force + over Michigan State
Given the magnitude of last week's game with Oregon this could be a challenging spot for the Spartans. Last season after losing to Oregon the Ducks cruised to a 73-14 win but Air Force is a challenging team to prepare for though there are some similarities with the Oregon attack. Michigan State is 8-13 ATS as a home favorite since 2012 and this is an outlier game on the schedule in the non-conference schedule that includes two local rivalries and last week's prominent game as a flat spot is possible. It would not be a surprise if Air Force fell back a few wins from last year's 10-3 campaign but can be a competitive team that hangs around. Last week's win over San Jose State was more impressive than it sounds and the Falcons can post a solid rushing total here against a Michigan State defense that has not been as good as advertised still working things out after losing several NFL caliber players from last season. The weather looks a bit questionable for this early start game and the rushing attack of Air Force would be better equipped to handle the potential high winds compared with a pass-oriented Spartans offense.
DAVE COKIN
CHARLOTTE VS MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
PLAY: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE -20.5
The newest member of the FBS makes its conference debut today as Charlotte heads to Murfreesboro for a duel with Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers have gotten out of the gate nicely with what was deemed a mild upset win at Georgia State, and they followed that up by coasting to an easy win last week against Presbyterian. Things figure to get more difficult for Charlotte tonight.
I happened to land on Charlotte in that season opener, going against the money, which was pretty heavily on Georgia State. That worked out nicely as the favorite played horribly early on and by the time they got it together, the deficit could not be overcome and Charlotte ended up with the outright win. But I also somewhat made up my mind that I would likely be looking for a spot to go against the 49ers in short order, and I’ll be doing so here.
Make no mistake, this is absolutely huge stuff for Charlotte. Their head coach, Brad Lambert, says they’ve been preparing for this game for two years, as it’s their first ever CUSA game. The 49ers have done some things well in garnering two straight wins, and it’s possible I’m now selling them short. But I think they’re a candidate to get run over tonight at MTSU.
The problem for the road team, as I see it, will be on defense. True enough, they had injury issues last season on the stop unit. But Charlotte’s defensive data from last season is pretty ugly. Among 122 FCS teams, Charlotte was 113th in yards allowed per game. Note that’s FCS, not FBS. Injuries or not, that’s pretty bad. The 49ers have a new defensive coordinator this season and are going with multiple schemes. But I keep looking at those defensive numbers at a lower level last season, and Charlotte is going to have to prove to me they can handle a step up in class better.
I like what I’m seeing so far from MTSU. Veteran coach Rick Stockstill has his son Brent now starting at QB and he’s already showing some savvy under center. The Blue Raiders didn’t do much with the football last week at Alabama, but they weren’t supposed to. Middle Tennessee should find the path down the field much easier to navigate tonight.
A key as far as whether or not tonight’s game gets lopsided will be the Charlotte offense against the Middle Tennessee defense. The 49ers use a two-QB system, and MTSU will have to be ready for the different styles of play they’re going to see. Matt Johnson is the conventional QB. Freshman Brooks Barden is a lefty who likes to take off and run. Johnson and Barden are each seeing lots of action, and in fact, there has even been some alternating of the two QB’s on the same series of downs.
Middle Tennessee certainly seems to be taking this game seriously. If there’s a hangover from the more exciting challenge against Alabama, it isn’t showing and all reports are that the team has looked crisp at practice this week. I like this team’s defense, which is a veteran unit that also got much bigger physically in the off-season.
This likely all comes down to whether the gaudy defensive stats registered in the first two games by the Charlotte stoppers are real or not. The 49ers currently lead the league in several defensive categories. But I’m currently inclined to believe that’s a mirage and that reality sets in tonight as Charlotte steps up in class.
The number is obviously a hurdle here, and it’s worth mentioning that MTSU could have been purchased at a bit of a discount earlier in the week. But I also don’t mind that there seems to be some support for the dog as far as ticket count is concerned, yet the line has gone up. My sources indicated that some sharp money dropped on the favorite and I’m going that way as well. I’ll look for Middle Tennessee State to win convincingly enough to cover the substantial impost.
Brad Diamond
Northern Illinois vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -35
This encounter opened at the Westgate on the Strip @ -31-1/2...now -35. In some outlets off-shore 34-1/2 is starting to show pretty early this morning. Ohio State has defeated Virginia Tech and Hawaii fairly easily thes season carrying a 2-0 SU record and a 1-1 ATS stat going into home action in Columbus. They layed a huge -41 to the 'Bows, won 38-0...no matter they are still ranked #1 in the nation. Coach Meyer is 39-13-1 ATS vs. N/C types. Northern Illinois too is 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS. Winning over UNLV and FCS Murray State. They layed -21-1/2 to the Rebs in Huskie Stadium (38-30) a non-cover. The Huskies do return 15 starters from an 11-3 season, and show 57-13 SU prior to the start of 2015. The Huskies are 7-1 ATS vs. Big-10 units and 7-1 ATS as N/C road dogs..
Mike Lundin
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -1½ +103
The Texas Rangers dropped the opener of a three-game set at Seattle 3-1 Friday. A subpar performance was in the cards though after a four-game sweep against the Astros, and I expect them to be back at their best tonight with Cole Hamels on the mound. Texas lost his first two starts as a Ranger but has won each of his last six. Hamels surrendered four runs on eight hits through seven innings of a 9-6 win at Seattle on Sep 8 and I think the offense will provide him with plenty of support here as well. Vidal Nuno will take the ball for the Mariners making a spot start as he has 31 appearances on the season but just six starts. Nuno held Texas to one hit over seven scoreless innings of a 6-0 win o Sep 9, but he's 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA while giving up seven home runs in his three away starts on the season.
Notes
Texas had hit .339 and averaged nine rpg during a six game winning streak prior to yesterday's defeat.
Texas Shin-Soo Choo is 10-for-13 with five runs in the last three games.
Texas is 22-6 in its last 28 home games.
Mr Vegas
Rice vs North Texas
Play: Rice
Rice is on a 10-2 ATS run and the Owls are 26-10-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Owls are also 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. North Texas has a soft defense and the Mean Green are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Jeff Saad
Western Kentucky vs Indiana
Play:Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky (2-0) is outstanding on offense and faces a soft Indiana defense. The Hilltoppers are 4-1 ATS following a win, plus 5-0 ATS allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. They've already beaten an SEC team, upsetting Vanderbilt, 14-12. Their offense woke up nicely in the win over Louisiana Tech. Indiana had a misleading win against Florida International, with a 98 yard defensive score and Hoosiers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a win, plus 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a spread win. This is a great scheduling spot as the road team has two extra prep days here, and the Hilltoppers also only have an easy non-league game with Miami Ohio next. Indiana is really fortunate to be 2-0 as they also barely beat Southern Illinois. The Hoosiers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Dr. Bob
TEXAS A&M (-34) 49 Nevada 14
I pegged Texas A&M as an underrated team heading into the season and so far the Aggies are 2-0 straight up and 2-0 ATS thanks to their much improved defense. The offense has actually been a bit disappointing so far based on the compensated stats of that unit but I don’t think the Aggies’ attack will have any trouble scoring against a Nevada defense that gave up 582 yarsd at 7.9 yards per play to Arizona last week. Nevada’s offense is well below average and doesn’t figure to do much damage until the A&M’s backups take the field. My ratings favor A&M by 35 points so there isn’t any value left backing the Aggies.
OKLAHOMA (-31) 51 Tulsa 19
Oklahoma has been inconsistent offensively, torching the bad defense of Akron for 41 points at 7.3 yards per play and struggling in their overtime win at Tennessee (17 points in regulation and only 4.0 yppl). However, the Sooners’ defense has been off the charts good in yielding just 3.4 yppl, including just 3.5 yppl to a good Tennessee attack last week. Tulsa is just the opposite, as the Golden Hurricane have been great offensively (43.5 points on 608 yards per game at 7.0 yppl) and bad defensively (34 points on 487 yards at 6.0 yppl). Overall Tulsa has been below average when factoring in their low level of opposition (Florida Atlantic and New Mexico) and I expect Oklahoma’s offense to put up big numbers while keeping the Tulsa attack in check. My ratings favor the Sooners by 34 ½ points but Tulsa applies to a decent 52-16-1 ATS non-conference road dog momentum situation. Probably best to pass this one.
MISSOURI (-21½) 30 Connecticut 8
My ratings favor Missouri by 21 ½ points with a total of 37 ½ points, so no opinion on the side and a lean towards the under.
MICHIGAN STATE (-25) 38 Air Force 14
I would have liked Air Force more if not for the injury to starting quarterback Nate Romine, who has run the option attack very well in 2 games this season. The question is if Romine’s ability to make good decisions is the reason for the marked improvement in the Air Force running game (just 4.5 yards per rushing play last season against teams that would allow 5.6 yprp to an average team) or if it’s better blocking or better running. I think it’s probably a combination of both and I don’t expect Air Force to be as good without Romine and today they run into a Michigan State defense that defends the run very well. The option tends to even the playing field against more athletic and talented defenses which is why option teams tend to play relatively better against better defensive teams. However, Michigan State is still likely to defend the option much better than an average defensive team would. Even with that being the case my ratings favor the Spartans by just 21 points with the downgrade in the Air Force offense without Romine. While I think the value is certainly on the side of Air Force the Spartans apply to a 72-31-6 ATS situation and a 45-16 ATS game 3 big favorite situation that plays on favorites of more than 21 points with a losing spread record. It’s natural to think Michigan State would suffer a letdown after their big revenge win over Oregon last week but home favorites of 21 points or more are actually 55% ATS (109-89-5) after a revenge win, including 56% after a close win (by less than 7 points). So, there is no historical evidence that Michigan State will suffer a letdown this week and the situations are actually in their favor. I’ll still lean very slightly with Air Force but it’s probably best to pass on this game.
Duke (-3½) 24 Northwestern 19
Duke has played better than I expected so far but this game will be a true test after beating bad teams Tulane and NC Central by a combined score of 92-7. Thomas Sirk has performed very well at quarterback even when factoring in the low level of competition, as he’s averaged 9.5 yards per pass play and added 157 yards on 23 runs. The Duke defense has been better than average even after adjusting for opposition and the Blue Devils look like an improved team on both sides of the ball. I actually expected Duke to be a better team this season, but with a worse record, but they appear to be more improved than I had projected. We’ll find out more this week against a good Northwestern team that beat Stanford 16-6 and crushed Eastern Illinois 41-0 last week. Northwestern is mediocre offensively but the Wildcats’ defense is legit and it will be interesting to see how Sirk performs against a good defensive unit. Northwestern should be able to stuff the traditional running plays and the pass but Sirk’s running ability should allow the Blue Devils to sustain some drives. I rate Northwestern as a slightly better team than Duke and favor the Blue Devils by just 2 points at home but Duke applies to a 116-48-3 ATS situation and that angle would have me leaning with the home team if the line goes down to -3.
OREGON (-44½) 59 Georgia State 18
OREGON (-44.5) 57 Georgia State 18 (if Oregon QB Adams is out)
My ratings only favor Oregon by 42 points and Georgia State is 10-0 ATS the last 4 years as an underdog of more than 17 points. Ducks' QB Vernon Adams is questionable and my projection assumes he'll play. I'd shave a couple of points off Oregon's score if Adams is out.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-24½) 39 Texas San Antonio 17
UTSA has played pretty well against two good teams, as the Roadrunners have only been outgained 385 yards at 5.0 yards per play to 407 yards at 5.9 yppl by Arizona and Kansas State. Those two teams combine to rate at 0.6 yppl better than average so UTSA has only been 0.3 yppl worse than average so far this season and I currently have the Roadrunners at -0.6 yppl when I combine their performance so far this season with my preseason ratings. UTSA has decent special teams and isn’t particularly turnover prone (just 2 turnovers in 2 games) so the Roadrunners are no pushover. Oklahoma State, however, is a very good team and my ratings favor the Cowboys by 22 ½ points, which indicates a bit of line value in favor of Texas San Antonio.
OHIO STATE (-34½) 52 Northern Illinois 14
My ratings favor Ohio State by 35 points, so the line is fair, but Urban Meyer’s teams are now 45-13-1 ATS against non-conference opponents in his coaching career. The cutoff is at 35 points, as he’s 3-4 ATS in those games when favored by 35 or more and 42-9-1 ATS when favored by less than 35 or getting points. I’ll lean with the Buckeyes based on Meyer’s coaching trend.
WISCONSIN (-34½) 44 Troy State 13
Wisconsin usually dominates lesser teams (18-9-1 ATS favored by 17 or more the last 7 years) but the Badgers haven’t shown the unstoppable ground attack that has been their trademark for many years. Wisconsin being held to 3.6 yards per rushing play by Alabama’s run-stuffing defensive front was not that surprising but only averaging 4.6 yprp last week against Miami-Ohio is shocking. Wisconsin’s 58 points in their shutout win over the Redhawks is very deceiving given the modest 5.6 yards per play against a bad defensive team. Troy State’s run defense is poor but last week’s surprisingly mediocre numbers against Miami suggests that something is wrong with the Badgers under new coach Paul Chryst. It certainly doesn’t help that top running back Corey Clement (949 yards at 6.5 ypr last season as a backup) is out again this week. My preseason ratings only had Wisconsin favored by 31 points and my updated ratings make it 27 points, so I think the line is way too high. However, the Badgers do apply to a 116-48-3 ATS situation that is 15-3-1 ATS when applying to favorites of more than 28 points. That’s the only thing keeping me from playing Troy State.
LSU (-6.5) 28 Auburn 17
Auburn has been a major disappointment offensively, as a Tigers’ attack that has been one of the nation’s best in two seasons under coach Gus Malzahn has been just average in the first 2 games of this season. Auburn has averaged only 5.5 yards per play against Louisville and Jacksonville State, an FBS team that they were favored by 40 points against but needed overtime to beat. Malzahn tweaked the offense to suit the skillset of new quarterback Jeremy Johnson, who is a pocket passer whereas former QB Nick Marshall was a great runner. The problem is that Johnson has not thrown the ball well (a modest 60% completions and 5 interceptions) and the rushing attack has managed only 4.5 yards per running play. Auburn isn’t likely to have much success running against LSU’s strong defensive front that held Miss State to just 71 rushing yards at 3.1 yards per rushing play last week and throwing against LSU is also tough to do (Miss State star QB Dak Prescott averaged only 5.6 yards per pass play). I still rate the Auburn offense at 0.6 yards per play better than average even though they’ve been just average through two games but the math projects only 4.7 yppl against LSU’s elite defense.
LSU’s quarterbacking has been an issue since Zach Mettenberger moved onto the NFL after the 2013 season and last week’s performance by Brandon Harris (4.4 yppp on 15 pass plays) suggests that the situation isn’t any better this season. However, Harris is a good runner and highly regarded sophomore RB Leonard Fournette ran for 159 yards and 3 touchdowns last week. Auburn is better than average defensively but LSU is projected to average 5.8 yards per play, which is a bit better than average. Overall my ratings favor LSU by 10 ½ points (I’d get 20 points if I used Auburn’s rating from this year only) and laying 7 or less looks like a solid play.
NOTRE DAME (+2½) 30 Georgia Tech 29
Notre Dame has not had the luck of the Irish so far this season where injuries are concerned. The biggest of injuries is to starting quarterback Malik Zaire, who has looked like a star since last year’s bowl game and started this season averaging 9.8 yards per pass play and 6.9 yards per running play in 1 ½ games against the solid defensive units of Texas and Virginia. Zaire broke his ankle and is out for the season and redshirt freshman DeShone Kizer is the new starting quarterback. Kizer was a highly rated quarterback out of high school 2 years ago and has played at a decent level so far (6.8 yards per pass play on 17 pass plays last week) but he’s not likely to put up the numbers that Zaire has. The injury to Irish running back Tarean Folston isn’t an issue as WR CJ Prosise has stepped in and done a good job with 253 yards at 6.8 ypr. In fact, Prosise has been an upgrade based on what he’s done so far. The Notre Dame offense is still good and should move the ball against an improved but still questionable defense that was horrible last season (6.4 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team) and has played two poor offensive teams this season (although they’ve allowed just 4.1 yppl).
Georgia Tech’s option offense should move the ball well, as they do against pretty much everyone and Notre Dame, while good defensively, has had trouble defending Navy’s option attack in recent years. The Irish allowed 39 points to Navy last season in defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder’s first season as DC and Navy put up 34 points on Notre Dame in 2013. VanGorder has spent most of his career coaching in the NFL, where the option is rarely run, and he didn’t face an option team in his one year at Auburn in 2012 so last year’s game against Navy was his first time facing an option team and he did not know how to stop it. With two option teams on the schedule this season VanGorder surely spent some time learning how best to defend that sort of attack and it will be interesting to see how that plays out today. Regardless, the line on this game is pretty fair, as I get Georgia Tech by 1.7 points after adjusting for Notre Dame’s new quarterback. The reason for leaning with Notre Dame is a 125-50-1 ATS early season home underdog situation that applies to the Irish.
USC (-9½) 31 Stanford 20
I still think Stanford is a really good team despite their 6-16 opening day loss at Northwestern, who is better than they’re perceived to be, and the games between these two teams have generally been close when Stanford isn’t winning big. USC was lucky to win 13-10 at Stanford last season, as the Cardinal somehow managed to score only 10 points despite marching inside the USC 35 yard line on all but one possession. The Stanford defense held Cody Kessler and company to just 294 yards at 5.2 yards per play and the Cardinal defense looks really good again this season despite having only 3 starters from last year’s dominating unit. Stanford has allowed only 11.5 points and 3.8 yppl to Northwestern and UCF and they’re a pretty even match for USC’s explosive offense that has averaged 624 yards at 9.1 yards per play against two bad teams (Arkansas State and Idaho).
The problem with Stanford has been the rushing attack, which has managed only 115 yards per game at a dismal 3.7 yards per rushing play. Fourth year starting quarterback Kevin Hogan bounced back from a horrible performance against Northwestern with 341 yards on just 29 pass plays against UCF last week and the USC pass defense has holes he can exploit. My ratings favor USC by 9 ½ points but I’ll lean slightly with USC on the basis of a decent 94-54-4 ATS home momentum situation.
TCU (-37½) 55 SMU 16
SMU is an improved team this season but my ratings favor TCU by 39 points and the Horned Frogs certainly don’t have any issues with rolling up the score on bad teams, as evidenced by their 14-5-1 ATS mark when favored by 30 points or more (4-0 ATS since last season).
ALABAMA (-7) 31 Mississippi 24
The winner of this game is in the driver’s seat in the SEC West and a spot in the national playoffs, as both teams will be favored in the remainder of their games this season (both host LSU). Alabama was certainly expected to be in that position but Ole’ Miss has been a surprise to many. I actually had the Rebels rated higher than most this season with the defense not quite as good as last season (3rd rated last year and 9th rated heading into this season) and the offense better than last season with Chad Kelly taking over at quarterback for an overrated Bo Wallace, who was nothing special (60% completions and 14 interceptions). Overall I had Ole’ Miss ranked 10th in my ratings prior to the season and last year they finished 9th in my final ratings. Alabama is my 2nd rated team just behind Ohio State and the Crimson Tide have actually been better than the Buckeyes so far this season. Bama dominated Wisconsin 502 yards at 7.6 yards per play to 268 yards at 4.5 yppl and overall the Tide have averaged 7.0 yppl on offense and allowed 4.1 yppl on defense to a pair of teams that combine to be a bit better than average (their other game was against Middle Tennessee State). Ole’ Miss has been great in dominating bad teams UT Martin and Fresno State but Alabama still looks like the better team and my ratings favor the Tide by 8 ½ points in this game. Ole’ Miss, however, applies to a 56-22-3 ATS road underdog momentum situation. Alabama is 8-2 ATS in revenge games under coach Nick Saban but the general trend applying to the Rebels carries more weight. I think it’s best to pass on this game.
UCLA (-16½) 38 Brigham Young 21
Sat Sep-19-2015 at 07:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 204 Over/Under 60.0 - Matchup Stats
BYU is a solid team even without quarterback Taysom Hill and they’re a bit underrated. The Cougars will miss Hill’s running but backup quarterback Tanner Mangum is at least as good throwing the ball, as he’s averaged 8.3 yards per pass play in 1 ½ games (excluding the 42 yard Hail Mary to beat Nebraska, which I consider luck and not predictive). BYU is also solid defensively, as limiting Nebraska and Boise State to 5.6 yards per play is 0.4 yppl better than what an average defense would allow those teams.
The hype over UCLA’s true freshman quarterback Josh Rosen after his great debut against Virginia (28 of 35 passing for 351 yards) has cooled a bit after a sub-par performance last week against a bad UNLV defense. Rosen completed only 22 of 42 passes and averaged just 5.3 yards per pass play against the Rebels. I suppose inconsistency can be expected from a freshman quarterback and his true performance level falls somewhere in between his first two performances, which is still a good level.
My ratings only favor UCLA by 13 points in this game but UCLA applies to a 103-31-2 ATS home favorite momentum situation that will keep me off of this game.
Utah (-14) 30 FRESNO STATE 19
Both of these teams are playing below expectations so far and the both may be starting a new quarterback this week. Utah will likely go with Kendal Thompson in place of injured starter Travis Wilson while Fresno coach Tim DeRuyter may turn to freshman Chason Virgil, who entered last week’s 21-73 loss to Ole’ Miss in the 2nd quarter after starter Zack Greenlee managed -2 yards on 5 pass plays. Virgil’s numbers were pretty good (140 yards on 18 pass plays and 21 yards on 3 runs) but a lot of that was against Mississippi’s backups. DeRuyter hasn’t announced a starter but I’m guessing Virgil will get a shot this week and I think it’s likely to be an upgrade. Thompson, meanwhile, as struggled when called upon in the past and he’s averaged only 4.3 yards per pass play on 61 pass plays (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback). Utah has played like an average team against Michigan and Utah State, averaging 332 yards at 5.0 yards per play and allowing 361 yards at 5.2 yppl, and my ratings only favor Utah by 11 points with Thompson at quarterback and I’ll lean with the Bulldogs plus the points.
Dr. Bob
MARYLAND (-7) 31 South Florida 23
Maryland was disappointing in their ugly loss to Bowling Green last week but the Terrapins should be better offensively with Caleb Rowe replacing the ineffective Perry Hills at quarterback. Rowe has averaged a healthy 7.2 yards per pass play in his career on 240 pass plays while facing teams that would allow just 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. I don’t expect that sort of production with a less gifted receiving corps than in past years but Rowe should certainly be an upgrade over Hills.
Memphis (-3) 42 BOWLING GREEN 34
Bowling Green was impressive in their 48-27 win at Maryland last week but the Falcons also lost 30-59 at Tennessee and Memphis is closer to Tennessee’s level than Maryland’s level. The Tigers have beaten up on a couple of bad teams (Missouri State and Kansas) by an average score of 59-15 and those performances are impressive even after compensating for the lower level of competition. My ratings favor Memphis by 6 ½ points and the Tigers apply to a 313-191-7 ATS statistical matchup indicator. I like the Tigers in this one.
Temple (-13½) 31 MASSACHUSSETTS 22
My ratings favor Temple by 10 ½ points, which is what the line was most of the week before jumping up 3 points on Friday. Temple applies to a negative 21-63-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation that plays against road favorites after an upset win (there’s a bit more to it than that, but that’s the gist of it) and I can certainly see Temple coming out a bit flat after their upset win at Cincinnati. The Owls also didn’t play well in that game, as they were outgained 288 yards at 5.2 yards per play to 558 yards at 6.7 yppl and won due to a +4 turnover margin. I like the home dog here.
NAVY (-4½) 32 East Carolina 25
East Carolina coach Ruffin McNeill is former defensive coordinator and he and his staff have molded the Pirates into a consistently good defensive team in recent years. However, the Pirates haven’t seen an option team since 2012 and Navy won that game 56-28. Navy played ECU in each of McNeill’s first 3 seasons as head coach and the Midshipmen scored 76 points, 35 points and 56 points in those 3 games. Current ECU DC Rick Smith hasn’t faced an option team in his 2 seasons but I can’t imagine he’s spent much time teaching his players how to defend it. Even if the Pirates’ run defense is as good, relatively, against the option as they usually are my ratings would still favor Navy by 4½ points in this game and the situation is strongly against ECU. The Pirates are coming off a close 24-31 loss at Florida as a 20 ½ point dog and that near upset actually set up ECU in a very negative 58-153-1 ATS letdown situation. There isn’t a ton of line value here but the situation is against East Carolina and I’ll lean with Navy minus the points.
Dr. Bob
Duke (-3½) 24 Northwestern 19
Duke has played better than I expected so far but this game will be a true test after beating bad teams Tulane and NC Central by a combined score of 92-7. Thomas Sirk has performed very well at quarterback even when factoring in the low level of competition, as he’s averaged 9.5 yards per pass play and added 157 yards on 23 runs. The Duke defense has been better than average even after adjusting for opposition and the Blue Devils look like an improved team on both sides of the ball. I actually expected Duke to be a better team this season, but with a worse record, but they appear to be more improved than I had projected. We’ll find out more this week against a good Northwestern team that beat Stanford 16-6 and crushed Eastern Illinois 41-0 last week. Northwestern is mediocre offensively but the Wildcats’ defense is legit and it will be interesting to see how Sirk performs against a good defensive unit. Northwestern should be able to stuff the traditional running plays and the pass but Sirk’s running ability should allow the Blue Devils to sustain some drives. I rate Northwestern as a slightly better team than Duke and favor the Blue Devils by just 2 points at home but Duke applies to a 116-48-3 ATS situation and that angle would have me leaning with the home team if the line goes down to -3.
Virginia Tech (-6) 26 PURDUE 25
My ratings favor Virginia Tech by 6 ½ points but Purdue should have success running the ball against the Hokies, who have a mediocre run defense, and the Boilermakers apply to a 166-83-1 ATS non-conference home underdog situation. I’ll side with Purdue based on the strong situation.
MIAMI FLORIDA (-3) 30 Nebraska 23
Neither of these teams has been particularly good through 2 weeks but I rate Miami as the better team (I favor them by 5 at home) and the Hurricanes apply to a solid 85-31-4 ATS home momentum situation.
NC State (-18½ ) 36 OLD DOMINION 20
NC State has a couple of easy win over bad teams, winning by 28 points as a 26 point favorite against Troy and winning 35-0 last week as a 31 point favorite against Eastern Kentucky. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has completed 84% of his passes but most of the passes are short passes with the longest completion being for just 31 yards against two bad defensive teams. My concern on offense is a rushing attack that has managed just 4.7 yards per rushing play and it will be interesting to see how much getting Shadrach Thornton back from suspension will help. Old Dominion has a horrible run defense so I do expect the rushing attack to put up good numbers and anything less than 6 yards per rushing play would be a concern going forward for the Wolfpack. The NC State defense didn’t play well against Troy but they shutout Eastern Kentucky while limiting them to just 114 yards at 2.6 yards per play, which is considerably better than what an average FBS team would have done. I still rate the NC State defense at 0.5 yards per play better than average and the task today will be stopping Old Dominion running back Ray Lawry, who has averaged 224 yards per game at 7.4 yards per run in 2 games this season and averaged 7.1 yards per run last season. NC State is much better competition than what Lawry has faced but he ran for 71 yards at 5.1 yards per run as a backup last season against the Wolfpack. Old Dominion’s new quarterback has really struggled against two bad teams so don’t expect anything close to the 34 points that the Monarchs scored against NC State last season with 4 year starting Taylor Heinicke. NC State is favored by 18 ½ points and that line is about right but Old Dominion has beaten the two bad teams they’ve played, which should give them confidence coming into this game, which is key for big underdogs. In fact, home underdogs of 14 points or more off consecutive wins are 74-43 ATS and NC State covered in that situation last year against Florida State – a game that I had a Best Bet on and won. I’ll lean with Old Dominion the points based on that trend.
IOWA (-5½) 24 Pittsburgh 17
Pittsburgh is a better than average team but I think Iowa is better on both sides of the ball and isn’t getting enough respect. The Hawkeyes have spread covering wins over Illinois State (31-14 as a 10 ½ point favorite) and Iowa State (31-17 as a 3 point road dog) and they’ve looked good statistically in averaging 454 yards at 6.6 yards per play while allowing just 268 yards per game at 4.6 yppl against a schedule that is 0.4 yppl worse than average. My ratings favor Iowa by 9 ½ points with a total of just 40 ½ points so the value is on Iowa and even more so on the under. Pitt applies to a 52-16-1 ATS game 1 situation that lessens my enthusiasm for Iowa but the under (47 points) looks like a solid play based on my numbers.
Dr. Bob
MINNESOTA (-24½) 31 Kent State 10
Kent State has an underrated defense that limited a good Illinois attack to just 342 yards at 5.3 yards per play in a deceiving 3-52 loss and then gave up NEGATIVE 33 yards to Delaware State last week. Negative. I don’t care who you’re playing, given up negative yards is impressive. I didn’t even use the stats from that game in my model and I still get Minnesota by just 21 points in a lower than expected scoring game.
MARYLAND (-7) 31 South Florida 23
Maryland was disappointing in their ugly loss to Bowling Green last week but the Terrapins should be better offensively with Caleb Rowe replacing the ineffective Perry Hills at quarterback. Rowe has averaged a healthy 7.2 yards per pass play in his career on 240 pass plays while facing teams that would allow just 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. I don’t expect that sort of production with a less gifted receiving corps than in past years but Rowe should certainly be an upgrade over Hills.
INDIANA (-1½) 40 Western Kentucky 37
Indiana is not as bad defensively as they were week 1 in their 48-47 win over Southern Illinois but the Hoosiers’ pass defense is an issue with 4 new starters in the secondary. Western Kentucky quarterback Brandon Doughty is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and the Hilltoppers should keep the scoreboard operator busy. However, Western Kentucky’s defense is also bad and Indiana has a better than average offensive that should also score a good number of points. My ratings actually favor Western Kentucky by 1 ½ points but the Hilltoppers apply to a very negative 14-62-2 ATS subset of an 89-200-5 ATS situation and Indiana applies to a 70-29-1 ATS situation. Indiana receives my highest situational rating (a 5 on a scale of 1 to 5) and games with a 5 situational rating have been 57% winners over the years (I started assigning such ratings in 2004). The negative line value lowers that percentage in this game but I’ll lean with the Hoosiers based on the strong situation.