Dr. Bob
OKLAHOMA STATE (-24½) 39 Texas San Antonio 17
UTSA has played pretty well against two good teams, as the Roadrunners have only been outgained 385 yards at 5.0 yards per play to 407 yards at 5.9 yppl by Arizona and Kansas State. Those two teams combine to rate at 0.6 yppl better than average so UTSA has only been 0.3 yppl worse than average so far this season and I currently have the Roadrunners at -0.6 yppl when I combine their performance so far this season with my preseason ratings. UTSA has decent special teams and isn’t particularly turnover prone (just 2 turnovers in 2 games) so the Roadrunners are no pushover. Oklahoma State, however, is a very good team and my ratings favor the Cowboys by 22 ½ points, which indicates a bit of line value in favor of Texas San Antonio.
California (-6½) 30 TEXAS 27
I was high on the Bears prior to the season and my preseason ratings had Cal favored in this game by 2 points. Cal has been a bit better than I expected and beating a solid San Diego State team 35-7 is certainly impressive. Texas, meanwhile, has been worse than expected on both sides of the ball, as the Longhorns have gained just 220 yards at 4.9 yard per play on offense while allowing 495 yards at 5.9 yppl to Notre Dame and Rice. My updated ratings favor Cal by 8 points but Texas should be better offensively with Jerrod Heard taking over at quarterback for the incredibly ineffective Tyrone Swoopes, who completed just 32% of his passes for 3.1 yards per pass play. Heard was highly rated coming out of high school (but then again so was Swoopes) and he’s shown flashes of his talent with 112 yards on 11 pass plays (although 69 came on one play) and 99 yards on 9 runs. I still rate the Texas pass attack as worse than average until I see more from Heard but he’s very likely to be much better than Swoopes has been throwing the ball and he’s a much better runner. Cal has a very good run defense that just held San Diego State star RB Donnell Pumphrey (1867 yards at 6.8 ypr and 20 TDs last year) to 85 yards at 4.0 ypr and a quick set of linebackers to help chase down Heard when he decides to run - so the advantage is still with the Bears’ vastly improved defense.
The other big issue for Texas, aside from the poor pass attack, is a pass defense that’s allowed 69% completions and 8.0 yards per pass play in their first 2 games. That’s a recipe for disaster against future 1st round NFL draft pick Jared Goff and his deep and talented corps of receivers. Goff was great last season and he’s averaged 10.3 yards per pass play so far this year. Playing Grambling helps the stats but San Diego State has a good defense and Goff ripped the Aztecs apart for 300 yards at 11.1 yards per pass play last week. I still rate Texas as having a good pass defense (and a good run defense) and they were much better last week against a decent Rice pass attack (allowed just 5.3 yppp). I don’t think the Longhorns will stop Goff from racking up good numbers but they should be able to slow him down.
While my updated ratings still favor Cal by 8 points I would get the Bears by just 3 ½ points if Texas plays at the level I had expected them to play at prior to the season starting. My reason for backing Texas plus the points is a 33-5 ATS subset of a 125-50-1 ATS non-conference home underdog situation that applies to the Longhorns. If Texas doesn’t play their best this week then there is something wrong with that team.
Dr. Bob
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-1) 31 Buffalo 30
It’s tough pick this one without knowing the status of Florida Atlantic starting quarterback Jaquez Johnson and top running back Jay Warren, who are both listed as questionable to play. My ratings favor Buffalo by 2 with both out and favor FAU by 2 with both in.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (-21) 37 Charlotte 21
This line has moved up from an opening number of 18 and my ratings favor MTS by just 16. The value is on the side of Charlotte plus the points. The total also move a lot from 56 to 64 and my math projects 58 points so I’ll lean Under.
TEXAS STATE (-3) 39 Southern Miss 36
I’m passing on the side with my rating favoring Southern Miss by 1 and the situation favoring Texas State, who apply to a 116-45-3 ATS situation. However, I do see a high scoring game here. My preseason numbers projected 71 points in this game and the updated numbers see even more points being scored. Southern Miss is a decent offensive team that has averaged 446 yards at 5.9 yards per play, including 413 yards at 5.2 yppl against Mississippi State. The Eagle’s pass heavy attack should move the ball very well against a Texas State defense that has allowed 8.1 yards per pass play to Florida State and Prairie View A&M. Allowing 10.6 yppp to FSU is bad given that the Seminoles are not an elite passing team this season but it may be even worse to allow 306 passing yards at 6.4 yppp to Prairie View, a team that is 37 points worse than an average FBS team. The Texas State offense is also projected to move the ball pretty well and I like the Over.
Texas El Paso (-2½) 34 NEW MEXICO STATE 29
UTEP has allowed an incredibly bad 377 passing yards per game at 12.2 yards per pass play to Arkansas and Texas Tech. New Mexico State, meanwhile, has surrendered 374 passing yards per game at 9.1 yppl to Florida and Georgia State. While UTEP’s pass defense numbers are worse, even after compensating for the better opposing quarterbacks faced, the Miners are likely to be better going forward while the Aggies may remain as bad as they’ve been. The difference is that UTEP has allowed 20.4 yards per completion, which is a number that is going to decline drastically going forward. UTEP has only allowed 59.7% completions, which is not horrible, and the worst yards per completion allowed each season is usually around 15 ypc, so expect the Miners’ pass defense numbers to be much better than they’ve been so far. New Mexico State, however, has allowed just 12.2 yards per completion, which is about average, but the Aggies have given up 77.5% completions, which is something that is more indicative of a bad pass defense. Both of these teams are good enough offensively to take advantage of the opposing defense but UTEP is the better team and should get the win.
Dr. Bob
MINNESOTA (-24½) 31 Kent State 10
Kent State has an underrated defense that limited a good Illinois attack to just 342 yards at 5.3 yards per play in a deceiving 3-52 loss and then gave up NEGATIVE 33 yards to Delaware State last week. Negative. I don’t care who you’re playing, given up negative yards is impressive. I didn’t even use the stats from that game in my model and I still get Minnesota by just 21 points in a lower than expected scoring game.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-1) 31 Buffalo 30
It’s tough pick this one without knowing the status of Florida Atlantic starting quarterback Jaquez Johnson and top running back Jay Warren, who are both listed as questionable to play. My ratings favor Buffalo by 2 with both out and favor FAU by 2 with both in.
SYRACUSE (-7½) 27 Central Michigan 18
Syracuse backup quarterback Eric Dungey has been great in place of injured starter Terrel Hunt and my ratings favor the Orange by 8 ½ points against a Central Michigan offense that hasn’t been as good as expected so far.
Temple (-13½) 31 MASSACHUSSETTS 22
My ratings favor Temple by 10 ½ points, which is what the line was most of the week before jumping up 3 points on Friday. Temple applies to a negative 21-63-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation that plays against road favorites after an upset win (there’s a bit more to it than that, but that’s the gist of it) and I can certainly see Temple coming out a bit flat after their upset win at Cincinnati. The Owls also didn’t play well in that game, as they were outgained 288 yards at 5.2 yards per play to 558 yards at 6.7 yppl and won due to a +4 turnover margin. I like the home dog here.
Ball State (-4½) 36 EASTERN MICHIGAN 31
Both teams should be able to move the ball in this game, as Eastern Michigan (7.4 yards per rushing play allowed) won’t be able to stop Ball State from running the ball (239 yards at 6.1 yprp on offense) while Eagles’ quarterback Brogan Roback should have another good game (330 yards at 13.8 yards per pass play last week against Wyoming) against a bad Ball State defense that doesn’t defend the run or pass (5.5 yprp and 7.8 yppp allowed). I lean Over in this game.
TOLEDO (-7½) 34 Iowa State 27
Toledo’s upset win over Arkansas sets up the Rockets in a negative 9-33 ATS game 2 letdown situation. However, my ratings favor the Rockets by 9 ½ points. I’ll pass.
Dr. Bob
WASHINGTON (-6) 25 Utah State 15
Both of these teams are offensively challenged and solid defensively and I expect a low scoring affair. Washington’s 555 yards at 9.3 yards per play last week against Sacramento State isn’t nearly as good as it seems when you take into account that Sac State was one of the worst defensive teams in the FCS last season. It’s still a good showing but the Huskies’ attack only gained 183 yards at 3.3 yppl in their opener at Boise State. Washington still managed to cover the spread in that 3 point loss because their defense limited Boise to just 4.3 yppl and 16 points. The 3.3 yppl and 0 points allowed to Sacramento State is also an excellent defensive performance given that the Hornets have been a pretty good offensive team in recent years. Washington should produce good defensive numbers again this week against a sub-par Utah State attack that has averaged only 4.6 yppl and 13 points per game against Southern Utah and Utah. Utah has a solid defense but managing only 3.8 yppl against Southern Utah is troubling. The Aggies get a boost with the return of top WR Hunter Sharp, who was suspended for the first two games, but I still rate the Utah State attack at well below average. The Aggies do have a good defense, however, and that unit has an advantage over the Washington offense. Overall, my ratings favor Washington by 6 ½ points with a total of just 40 points but I’ll call for a larger margin of victory based on a 148-66-3 ATS situation that applies to the Huskies.
SAN DIEGO STATE (-17½) 33 South Alabama 17
San Diego State was expected to be a better than average team but the Aztecs have struggled offensively against both FCS team San Diego (only 5.1 yards per play) and in a 7-35 loss at Cal last week (just 4.4 yppl). South Alabama is a bad defensive team by FBS standards but San Diego is an FCS team with a defensive rating that is worse than that of South Alabama. So, while you’d expect the Aztecs to move the ball much better this week there is evidence in that week 1 game that they still may struggle. The San Diego State rushing attack certainly should be better than it’s been with Donnell Pumphrey at running back. Pumphrey ran for 1867 yards at 6.8 ypr last season so it’s likely that he’ll perform much better than the 3.7 ypr that he’s averaged in 40 carries this season. South Alabama just gave up 258 rushing yards at 7.0 yards per rushing play at Nebraska and I expect Pumphrey to break out of his slump. South Alabama is a below average offensive team and San Diego State still rates as better than average defensively despite giving up 8.0 yards per play to Cal last week. However, my ratings favor San Diego State by just 15 ½ points so I’ll lean with the Jaguars plus the points.
OREGON STATE (-7½) 27 San Jose State 24
Both of these teams are flawed, as Oregon State’s new quarterback can’t throw the ball (just 4.1 yards per pass play against Weber State and Michigan) and San Jose State can’t stop the run, as they were terrible in run defense last season and have allowed 6.2 yards per rushing play through 2 games this season. While a bad run defense is just what Oregon State needs to get some offense (they’ve averaged only 4.6 yards per play, including just 5.1 yppl against Weber) I still don’t see them being likely to win by more than 7 points. Oregon State is bad defending the run again this season and San Jose State running back Tyler Ervin has averaged 6.0 ypr since the beginning of last season. The Spartans, unlike the Beavers, do have a capable pass attack that has averaged 258 yards at 7.0 yards per pass play (although was not good last week). I see this game being pretty close and my ratings only favor Oregon by 2 ½ points. I considered making San Jose State a play but Oregon State’s ability to have success by simply running the ball is a concern, especially with the Spartans’ best defensive player (LB Christian Tago) being uncertain to play (questionable with a concussion).
Utah (-14) 30 FRESNO STATE 19
Both of these teams are playing below expectations so far and the both may be starting a new quarterback this week. Utah will likely go with Kendal Thompson in place of injured starter Travis Wilson while Fresno coach Tim DeRuyter may turn to freshman Chason Virgil, who entered last week’s 21-73 loss to Ole’ Miss in the 2nd quarter after starter Zack Greenlee managed -2 yards on 5 pass plays. Virgil’s numbers were pretty good (140 yards on 18 pass plays and 21 yards on 3 runs) but a lot of that was against Mississippi’s backups. DeRuyter hasn’t announced a starter but I’m guessing Virgil will get a shot this week and I think it’s likely to be an upgrade. Thompson, meanwhile, as struggled when called upon in the past and he’s averaged only 4.3 yards per pass play on 61 pass plays (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback). Utah has played like an average team against Michigan and Utah State, averaging 332 yards at 5.0 yards per play and allowing 361 yards at 5.2 yppl, and my ratings only favor Utah by 11 points with Thompson at quarterback and I’ll lean with the Bulldogs plus the points.
Brad Wilton
No excuse-making. Just another massive winner for early Saturday afternoon that will have y'all grinnin' from ear-to-ear.
It goes on Memphis at Bowling Green, and it is another easy winner.
On the surface the price in this Kent State-Minnesota game may appear a little "large" on the Golden Gophers side, but after dealing with TCU, and last week on the road at Colorado State, I expect the sledding to be downhill for Minny against the Golden Flashes in this home game.
Kent State has been sloppy - real sloppy - with the football thus far this season, as they turned the football over 4 times in their first game versus Illinois, and they fumbled it 7 times last week (2 being returned for TD's) against Delaware State.
Minnesota will feast off of State's sloppy play and extend the margin in this spot. The Golden Gophers have covered 9 of their last 12 as the home chalk, and are 15-7 overall versus the line at home since 2012.
The Flashes meanwhile have failed their last 4 meetings versus the Big Ten, and worse still, they have not even scored a touchdown in any of those 4 games.
Now you understand why Minnesota is laying this number? I sure do!
Back the Golden Gophers.
4* MINNESOTA
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the back the Huskies of Northern Illinois as they head to the Horse Shoe toting in a truckload of points against #1 Ohio State.
The Buckeyes didn't cover last week against Hawaii, as the linesmakers continue to make you pay for backing the Bucks, and I do not feel they will cover today against a balanced Huskies team that is off to a 2-0 straight up start, and has fared well when stepping up to tangle with schools from the Big Ten.
NIU has covered 9 of their last 10 against the BigTen and the Huskies are also 15-4 against the spread their last 19 as the visitor.
OSU is on a 3-5 turn when laying 20-points or more in their last 8 attempts and the Buckeyes are just 4-4 against the spread their last 8 in Columbus overall.
Grab the overly-generous spot today as the Huskies stay close enough to get the cover.
2* NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Brad Wilton
Two schools of thought at Tulsa visits Norman for a date with Oklahoma...#1 - OU could be spent after their comeback double-overtime win at Tennessee last Saturday night, or #2 - OU could be as loose as a goose and ready to produce against a team that have dominated.
I subscribe to the later, and will lay the wood with Boomer Sooner Schooner.
Oklahoma has routed Tulsa in each of the past 5 series meetings, winning by an average score of 51-12.
The Golden Hurricane has had success this season in wins over Florida Atlantic and New Mexico, as they are running a new spread offense. Maybe they will meet with some early success in this game, but based on past history, I feel it is just a matter of time before Oklahoma snuffs it out and pours it on.
Sooners roll to another series win and cover.
2* OKLAHOMA
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on Kentucky over Florida, and if your bookmaker is offering a 3, take the extra half point up in this one. This is a big revenge game for the Wildcats, who came very close to ending a generation of domination by Florida last year, when the Kentucky took the Gators to three overtimes before losing 36-30.
That was in The Swamp. Now the series shifts to Bluegrass country, and the Wildcats might be better than they were last season.
Kentucky (2-0, 1-0 SEC) snapped a couple of droughts with last week's 26-22 upset at South Carolina, and now their sights are set on this week's showdown with the Gators (2-0, 0-0). This would be Kentucky's first 3-0 start since 2010.
The 'Cats' defensive depth strengthens with the return of junior defensive end/outside linebacker Jason Hatcher, who is back after a two-game suspension for a violation of team rules. I'm also impressed by freshman cornerback Chris Westry, who has six tackles in two starts and was named SEC freshman of the week after recording a sack and a key pass breakup before putting an exclamation on the win over South Carolina with an interception.
I think that defense will prosper against Florida's redshirt freshman quarterback Will Grier, who will make his second straight start at quarterback.
Let's take the points in this one with the home dog.
4* KENTUCKY
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the NY Yankees on the money line over the NY Mets. Both Michael Pineda and Noah Syndergaard must start or this play is null and void.
Despite out-hitting the Mets, 9-8, last night, Masahiro Tanaka couldn't keep the ball in the yard late in the game and it cost him dearly. It also hurt that the Yankees could not add to their early 1-0 lead, failing to get a base runner past second base after that first inning.
Today, it's Michael Pineda and his once potent offense against hard-throwing youngster Noah Syndergaard.
While I believe Syndergaard has the stuff to be really good, he's been way too inconsistent for me, and I'm not one to back a guy with that many inconsistencies.
I'll take the NY Yankees on the money line as your free play of the day.
1* N.Y. YANKEES
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo/FAU Under 64
FAU is known for allowing points by the barrel. In fact, the Owls have allowed 30 points or more in 13 of their past 14 games, including 10 straight dating back to last season. The Owls two games this year have resulted in scores of 47-44 and 44-20. The market recognizes the Owls as a big over proposition from week to week and we can surely understand why. The Bulls have also been involved in many high scoring shootouts over the years as a member of the MAC. Combining the two combatants here to go over this number appears to be a very reasonable conclusion. That’s when we step in and bury the under, as we’ve been waiting for this spot since Week 1 to do so.
It was a quite a surprise to see the abrupt ending to the Jeff Quinn era in Buffalo, especially one season removed from the second bowl appearance in school history. Replacing Quinn with Lance Leipold was equally unforeseen. That said, Leipold’s hiring is the basis for this play. Leipold proved everything he possibly could at the Division III level with a 109-6 career record. He won six national titles and he needed only 106 games to reach 100 wins, the fastest ever to do so and it wasn’t built on his offense. Leipold’s teams were stingy and vicious. In his last six seasons at Whitewater Wisconsin, the Warhawks never allowed more than 12.2 points per game, 4.4 yards per play, or 300 yards per game. They were sound, aggressive, and opportunistic.In 2014 UWW picked off 24 passes, broke up another 61, forced 17 fumbles, and logged 97 tackles for a loss. Their Havoc Rate of 19.5% would have ranked 14th at the FBS level, and their 4.4 yards per play allowed (their worst average since 2008) would have ranked fourth.And while Leipold's defensive line coach, Kevin Bullis, stayed in Whitewater to become the new head coach, Leipold was able to entice defensive coordinator Brian Borland to make the trip to UB with him. Last week, the Bulls played at Penn State and lost 27-14. The score at the half was 10-0. The Bulls will now face an FAU team that figures to run the ball often, as more than half of their receiving production has departed. The Owls play a read-option game and we can assure you that Leipold will have his troops prepped for it. Leipold is not like most others. He’s not likely to get into a shootout on the road. He prefers sustained drives and eating up the clock. If Leipold imposes his teams’ will here, which he usually does, this one will stay well under this number. We like the Bulls outright as well, so we are making two plays here.
PENN STATE -8½ over Rutgers
The mental status of Rutgers remains questionable as they come in off a shocking loss to Washington State in Piscataway. The Scarlet Knights were the victim of a last-minute score after they took a 34-30 lead with just 1:31 remaining in the game, yet Wazoo found a way to win regardless. This is the same Washington State team that fell to the hands of FCS Portland State just a week before on their own field in Pullman, Washington. That result provides insight into the vulnerability of this Rutgers team, a squad able to throttle FCS Norfolk State at home in Week One, only to drop a game to a team that traveled across the country to play them after losing at home just a week before to an inferior opponent. Nevertheless, Rutgers entered this game as a marginal favorite despite their dominance of a lower-quality opponent, indicating the little faith that linemakers had in the Scarlet Knights. We can understand why. This is a Scarlett Knights team that allows an average of 25 points per game. In addition, Rutgers is currently surrendering an alarming 377.5 yards of total offense to opponents in each contest they have played. The numbers collated include the aforementioned known FCS featherweight Norfolk State and ill-defined Pac-12 member, Washington State. Now, this same Rutgers defense must take to the road to face Penn State in the confines of the ever hostile Happy Valley. This will be Rutgers toughest assignment to date.
Penn State has yet to cover this year. They were handled thoroughly as a road favorite when they visited Temple, falling 27-10. The Nittany Lions would follow up with a 14-point victory over Buffalo despite entering the game as a 17-point favorite after their opening week loss. Still, we know the caliber of coach that James Franklin is. We are already noticing more subtle signs of progress, and we are seeing trends develop with this Nittany Lions squad. PSU dominated Buffalo from wire to wire. The Nittany Lions allowed a junk-time touchdown when the game was well in hand, allowing for the Bulls to attain a backdoor cover. Against Temple, just one week earlier, PSU jumped out to a 10-0 lead only to relinquish the lead and give up 27 unanswered points. In addition, the Nittany Lions turned the ball over twice against Temple, yet against Buffalo, the Nittany Lions did not turn the ball over once. We cannot support Rutgers as a play, as they are far too inconsistent, they’re in complete disarray and we have yet to see them perform in a trying environment like that of State College. Rutgers defense has more problems than a bad start. They have issues of coaching, scheme, personnel, intangibles ... the works. This team is broken with coach Kyle Flood suspended among other major issues. Night games at State College are a spectacle and we absolutely trust the Lions to respond to what will be a frenzied gathering.
INDIANA -2 -over Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky has been a bit of a shapeshifter over the preliminary stages of the 2015-16 season. In Week 1, the Hilltoppers narrowly escaped maligned SEC club, Vanderbilt in Nashville on a goal-line stand to prevent a tying two-point conversion at the end of regulation. Western Kentucky seemed to have a significant amount of good fortune and luck on their side and could have easily been out of the game early had it not been for the lackluster offensive efforts of Vandy. We would learn that Vanderbilt’s defensive abilities were no fluke, as they would nag and harass visiting division heavyweight Georgia last Saturday in a 34-17 loss. It is worth mentioning that 14 of those 34 points came on special teams and a pick-six and the Vanderbilt defense managed to hold UGA’s high-powered offense to just 20 points despite the Dawgs featuring one of the most explosive units in America.
Last Thursday, Western Kentucky would provide an impressive win when they would upend a visiting favorite in Louisiana Tech, a team poised to torch the Hilltoppers in their own backyard. Now we see the Hilltoppers back on the road against another Power 5 opponent in Indiana. Indiana like Vanderbilt is regarded as a lower echelon competitor when compared to the Big 10’s elite such as Michigan State or Ohio State. However, the Hoosiers are by no means a team to overlook. Indiana’s harrowing evasion of Southern Illinois last week combined with Western Kentucky’s impressive road win sets up for a public overreaction to both. We are not fooled, as WKU’s struggles against Vandy exposed some glaring weaknesses. We don’t trust that WKU will be so fortunate this time around against a focused Hoosiers squad. Indiana Coach, Kevin Wilson has yet to win more than five games in a season. Wilson needs to deliver the goods this year or he may be looking for another position. The Hoosiers have opened 2-0. They have Wake on deck before a showdown with #1 Ohio State. The Hoosiers therefore have a legit shot to go 4-0 before facing the Buckeyes. This is not a sandwich game or a look ahead spot so all focus figures to be on the task at hand. We trust that will be enough.
BOWLING GREEN +3½ over Memphis
The Bowling Green Falcons boast an impressive early season resume in spite of their 1-1 record. This is the same Falcons team that put up 30 points against a tough Tennessee squad in Week 1. The Falcons would follow that one up with an impressive rout of Maryland on the road as a significant dog. That’s two games against two tough programs and the Falcons did not look a bit out of place in either. In fact, they put up nearly 500 yards of total offense against the Terps.
The Memphis Tigers are undefeated and regarded by many as a favorite to win the AAC. However, the AAC is considered a downgrade when compared to the conferences that Bowling Green’s two previous opponents hail from (SEC and ACC). The 2-0 Tigers feature a heralded quarterback in Paxton Lynch and to the Tigers’ credit they have accumulated 118 points in their first two results. However, the Tigers faced mediocre competition, consisting of a home match against FCS Missouri State and a road contest with a down-trodden Kansas Jayhawks club. Simply put, the Tigers are taking a step up in class here and you will play a premium to back them because of their 2-0 record and the 118 points that they have put up. The Tigers are also coming off an outstanding season in 2014 in which they went 10-3 capped off by an impressive Bowl victory over BYU. Now sitting at 2-0, Memphis’s stock remains high. That makes us sellers. One of the league’s top defensive units from last year was hit hard by losses, as it must replace eight starters. Plus, highly regarded coordinator Barry Odom left to return to Missouri, his alma mater, in the same role. Associate head coach and linebackers coach Galen Scott steps into Odom’s position. Scott had to find three new starting linebackers, three new starting defensive backs and two new starting defensive linemen. That unit has not been tested yet and will pay the price for scheduling games against two weak opponents in the first two weeks of the season. The Falcons did the complete opposite by scheduling games against quality opposition and figure to reap the rewards of that here. We’re calling the upset.
Matt Fargo
Rice vs. North Texas
Play: N Texas +7.5
We played against North Texas in these pages last week but will back them at home at a great dog price. The Mean Green lost at SMU last Saturday 31-13 as the were outgained by 204 total yards but the one disadvantage they had was that it was their first game of the season while the Mustangs had played the previous week. The Mean Green went 4-8 last season which was well down from going 9-4 in 2013 that included a bowl win over UNLV and while this is not a great team, we went against them last week mainly because of their 13-51 record on the road coming in. they have been much better at home, going 16-7 over the last four years. The Owls put together what seemed like a respectable game against Texas last week as they lost by 14 points but were down by 28 in the fourth quarter where the Owls scored their garbage touchdowns and outgained Texas 175-16. the lone victory this season came against Wagner of the FCS at home so that was certainly not a test. To its credit, Rice went a perfect 3-0 ATS last season as a road chalk but this line on Saturday is a little too overaggressive this early in the season. The Owls are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games following a road cover where they lost as underdogs while North Texas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after getting outgained by 125 or more yards last game.
Tom Stryker
Air Force vs. Michigan State
Play: Air Force +24½
Off last Saturday's emotional revenge home win over Oregon, don't be surprised if Michigan State takes its foot off the gas in this spot. The Spartans have a pair of cupcakes on deck in East Lansing against Central Michigan and Purdue and the Green & White could easily be flat for this contest against a scrappy Air Force squad.
A quick look at the Team Stryker database shows that "Duck hangovers" have been brutal. Since November 21st, 2009 teams coming off a game against Oregon are a dismal 17-36-1 ATS in their next battle. If our "play against" side is tackling a foe that takes the turf off a straight up win of four points or more, this situation crumbles to a woeful 5-20-1 ATS. That doesn't bode well for MSU.
The Falcons enter this test off a pair of home wins and they're in a couple of their best roles. Since 1989, the Flyboys have been tough in road openers notching a respectable 17-9 SU and 20-5 ATS. In this situation priced as an underdog of +3.5 or more, Air Force is an eye-popping 14-0 ATS in its last 14 games. Also, when priced as a pup of +21 or more, the Falcons have soared notching a decent 8-3 ATS in their last 11 tries.
As a double-digit home favorite taking the field off a non-conference game, the Spartans have struggled posting a soft 12-25 ATS record. With AFA starting quarterback Nate Romine gone for the season with a knee, backup Karson Roberts is athletic enough to run the Falcons "quadruple option" and give MSU fits all day long.
ASA
UTEP at New Mexico St
Pick: UTEP -3
Let's get straight to the point, New Mexico State is a very bad football program and this year's team, unfortunately, is just another bad team in a long line of bad teams. To put this in perspective: Last week the Aggies lost at home to Georgia State and gave up 580+ yards in the process. It was GSU's first FBS win ever AND this same Georgia State team LOST the week before to Charlotte who was playing their first D1 football game! The Aggies can't stop the run and the Miners strength on offense is running the football. Last year New Mexico State allowed 313 yards per game rushing which was second to last in all of college football. In two games this season they are giving up over 215 YPG rushing and again that's against GSU and a Florida team that called off the dogs in the second half of their game. UTEP meanwhile is 0-2 themselves but they played two far superior teams to New Mexico State in Texas Tech and Arkansas. UTEP was a Bowl team last year and if they want to get to the college post season again they must win this game. Last season the Miners were 33rd in the nation in rushing yards per game at 210per and this season they return a mammoth offensive line that will dwarf a small Aggies D-line. Despite playing TTech and Arky the Miners have still averaged 142 yards per game rushing already this season. Yes, UTEP is missing their top running back, Jones, here but they'll plug a new back into their 'system' and the big machine will keep on churning. We are playing against a New Mexico State team that is just 5-33 SU their last 38 games and UTEP has beaten them 6 straight by: 18, 21, 13, 6, 32 and 26 points respectively. Take UTEP and lay the short number in this one.
Harry Bondi
COLORADO (-3) over Colorado State
We were impressed with the way Colorado bounced back from a Week 1 loss in Hawaii by trouncing UMass last week. It was a very difficult spot for the Buffs and they prevailed with ease. The Rams come in off a brutal loss to Minnesota and are a little banged up here for this intra-state rivalry game. Colorado has won five of the last seven meetings in Denver by an average of 15 points per game and will ride its strong rushing attack to another win here today. Lay the short number.
Bob Balfe
Rockies -120
The Rockies are not very good at hitting left handed pitchers, but this is a guy who struggled in Triple A ball this year at times and I believe the Rockies will hit him a lot in this park today. San Diego just does not have the bats to score a lot of runs. Look for the Rockies to take advantage of the young inconsistent pitcher.