GoodFella
Fla. Atlantic -2
Bottom line is that I have FLA ATL lined as 3.5 point favs and I will play a smaller personal play on this IMO under-rated team this morning. I am well aware that QB Jacquez Johnson is out. I happen to really like their other QB Jason Driskel anyways. I have them winning this game by 4-6 points and we will just see what happens here. Best of luck if you choose to play along with us.
Vegas Butcher
New York Mets -122
Two top-20 pitchers face off in this one but there are a couple of factors that favor the home team. First, Syndergaard has never faced the Yankees before so the ‘unfamiliarity’ factor is in his favor. Second, the Mets rank 1st offensively over the last 30-days while the Yankees are only 16th. Remember Tex is out for the year and A-Rod can’t play the field. Those two guys brought a lot of ‘pop’ to Yankees’ lineup and they’re two big missing pieces. The last factor in the Mets favor is the fact that Pineda hasn’t been on top of his game lately. His K-rate is only 18% in the 2nd half compared to 25% in the first, and he’s allowing 2.2 HR/9 vs 0.9 earlier in the year. He missed some time on the DL and I’m wondering if that effected his mechanics a bit. While his 3.6 xFIP for the 2nd half of the year is solid (his control is excellent still), his 5.4 FIP is troublesome. Mets rank 1st in ISO over the last 30-days and I believe they’re much more likely to generate big hits in this one. My model has this one at -121 Mets so right at the current odds, but that’s assuming A-Rod’s and Tex’ production is in there. Take those guys out and the odds favor the Mets even more in this one.
Boston Red Sox +161 (1st 5 Innings Only)
Over the last 30-days Miley is my 15th ranked starter with an e-ERA of 3.0. He’s not walking anyone, has a miniscule 0.3 HR/9, and is generating a 9.1% SwStr%, way above the league average of 7.5%. His 3.2 FIP in the 2nd half is much better than his 4.0 mark in the 1st and I hope he pitches well again today. On the other side we have RA Dickey, whose 4.1 ERA is much lower than his 4.8 SIERA mark. Boston has seen him 5 times already this season and today will be their 6th. He has an ERA short of 5 against them and has allowed 5 HR’s while only striking out 16 in 31 innings against the Red Sox. With Boston’s offense performing at a top-5 level the last few months I like their chances of plating a few runs off Dickey early. Regardless, there’s way too much value on the BoSox in this one and it’s almost an auto-play at this number. Taking BP’s out of it for obvious reasons.
San Diego Padres +104
Two lefties on the mound in this one and that’s where the advantage lies for the Padres. Rockies are by far the WORST offense in the league against left-handers. Their 57 wRC+ is the worst I’ve ever seen, as they are 43% worse against lefties in generating runs than an average offense. By comparison San Diego’s wRC+ is 90 against lefties. That’s a huge difference. Erlin hasn’t pitched in the majors yet this year but in his 116 career MLB innings he has a 4.6 ERA. Of course his 3.8 xFIP and 4.0 SIERA are much lower, indicating to me that he’s not as bad as his ERA number indicates. Flande’s xFIP and SIERA are both 4.3 this season so he’s been performing slightly worse than Erlin’s career marks. Plus the Padres have already seen him once this year and have had success off him: 6 innings, 4 runs, 2 HR’s. San Diego’s offense ranks 10th over the last 30-days while Colorado’s is 28th, and of course the Padres have an advantage in the later innings with Benoit and Kimbrel at the back of their BP. I like their chances in this one.
Coach Fletcher
Washington -5.5
The 1-1 Washington Huskies host Utah State Saturday night. Utah State also arrives with a 1-1 record.
The Huskies played Boise State in their opener. They went in as a 13 point dog and lost just 16-13. Last week the Huskies took a breather and played FCS school Sacramento State in what was really a scrimmage given the talent differences in the two schools. Washington won that one 49-0 as 30.5 point favorites.
The Sacramento State game gave them a chance to work on their running game which was non –existent against Boise. The Huskies rushed for 29 yards on 22 carries against Boise. Going against Sac State, the Huskies tallied 218 yards on 36 carries. While throwing for 150 yards versus Boise, the Huskies tossed for 326 against Sac St.
The Washington pass defense was impressive against Boise. The Huskies held them to 17-27 for 152 yards and picked off 2. Against Sac State, with a plethora of back-ups seeing time, the Huskies gave up 201 yards passing and picked off 1. Washington stymied the Sac State running game giving up only 11 yards on 26 carries. Even though they allowed 185 on the ground to Boise, it took 53 tries to get there. That’s just a little less than 3.5 per carry.
Utah State has played a good team as well when they took on Utah last week. The Aggies lost that one 24-14 after beating Southern Utah 12-9 in week 1. Clearly the Utes offense is having problems. Against Southern Utah the Aggies threw 33 passes and completed 16 for 110 yards. Not impressive. They did run 35 times for 140 yards, a 4.0 per carry average. Against Utah they ran 32 times for 117 yards, a 3.7 average. They threw for 256 yards but were picked 3 times.
Defensively, the Aggies were not bad. Southern Utah proved no problem. They only gained 52 yards in 30 carries and passed for only 111 yards. Utah kept the ball on the ground running for 195 yards in 44 carries, 4.4 yards per carry, and threw only 22 passes, completing 17 for 132 yards.
It’s hard to put a solid number on the Washington offense due to the game against Sac State. QB Jake Browning has completed 63.8% of his passes for 476 yards and 1 pick. Myles Gaskin is the leading rusher averaging a healthy 7.9 yards per carry. Dwayne Washington is the leading receiver with 9 catches while Josh Perkins has 7.
The Husky defense is only allowing 8 points per game, not bad for playing against Boise, but not surprising due to Sac State. They have recorded 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovered, and picked off 2.
The offensive match-up goes to Washington. Here’s why. The Aggies are averaging just 13 points a game and 311.5 yards. QB Chuckie Keaton has completed 55.9% of his passes for 366 yards with 2 TD’s and a pick. The ground game isn’t too hot either. The leading rusher is averaging 3.2 yards per carry. The Aggies leading receiver has 9 receptions.
But the Aggie defense is strong. They’ve allowed 16.5 points per game and 245 yards. They have 5 sacks but no takeaways.
The Huskies are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games and 19-9 against the spread in their last 28 home games. Utah State is 12-4-1 against the spread after a loss and 35-17-2 in their last 54 road games. However, they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 September games.
The does have the look of a close game. But Washington’s offense should be able to put enough points to cover. Sagarin, for those who care, has Washington ranked #26 and Utah State 77. He’s got Southern Utah at #166 and Sac State at #181.
Coach’s Conclusion:
Utah State plays in the Mountain West Conference. Washington plays in the Pac-12. That alone gives Washington an edge. They are able to draft better players. The Husky offense should be able to pierce that stout Utah State defense and put up some points. Utah State is another story. They will struggle to get more than 17 which means the Huskers just need 23 to cover. I like Washington.
The Real Animal
UMASS +13
Wow this one is insane. Do you know Temple last week lost total yards at Cincinnati by a 557-296 verdict? alk about a strange role: Temple this week becomes just the third college team since 1980 to post back-to-back underdog straight-up wins and then are favored on the road. The other two were Troy as a 9 ½-point road favorite at New Mexico State in 2004 (lost outright 22-18) and East Carolina -12 at Tulane in 2008 (28-24 win but no cover). Need more? UMASS has 19 starters back this year including senior QB Blake Frohnapfel. That’s interesting because 17 returning-starter home underdogs off a loss of 20 points are more are 11-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog when facing an opponent off back-to-back straight-up and ATS wins. Remember Temple is just 7-11 SU on the road the past four years and this is just the fourth time in that span they are a road favorite and FIRST TIME as a double-digit chalk. The Minutemen offense improved from 11.7 points per game in 2013 to 27.3 in 2014. UMASS returns all five offensive line starters and that’s significant considering Cincinnati QB Gunner Keil threw for 427 yards and confirmed just how pathetic Hackenberg is.