Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday September 19,2009

Alex Smart

Colorado -7.0

The Colorado Buffaloes HC Tom Hawkins job is on the line this week after his team suffered back to back season opening losses vs their rivals the Colorado State Rams 23-17 at home and than followed that up with a ugly effort at the Glass Bowl vs the Toledo Rockets by an embarrassing 54-38 count as 3.5 point favorites. There is hope however, that the Buffaloes can awake from their early season slumber , as they did put 35 points on the board in the last half of their loss last week, and began to look a little bit more cohesive. Now against a lower tier Wyoming program that this school has dominated over the years ,a win and importantly , a cover Im betting is on the agenda. It must be noted that the Buffaloes own a 23-2-1 all time record vs the Cowboys winning SU by an average of 20 PPG. Look for the Buffs to throw everything at Wyoming this week and come out of this contest with a fairly substantial win. Final notes & Key Trends: Wyoming is 3-13 ATS in their L/16 games as road underdog and have failed to cover four straight away as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Wyoming got clobbered by Texas last week by a 41-10 count, which is not a good omen for their betting backers considering the Cowboys are just 1-10 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last time out, losing SU by an average of 11.3 PPG. Colorado is 7-1 in their L/8 home vs non BCS teams winning SU by an average of 22 PPG .... Play on Colorado to cover

Steve Zukiel
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UAB vs. Troy
Play: UAB +6½
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These two teams are quite similar and the Blazers have always been a much better team as an underdog than a favorite. Troy has been pummeled in their first two football games. I really like what I have seen from Blazers' QB Joe Webb, who has accounted for 738 total yards with four touchdown passes and three touchdowns rushing the football. I think he should have a field day against a depleted Troy secondary. Take the points and the Blazers.

CAJUN SPORTS

Arizona Wildcats @ Iowa Hawkeyes -6
Selection: 2* Arizona Wildcats +6

Each team has a conference game on deck next week with the Hawkeyes having to make a trip to Happy Valley for a huge game against the Nittany Lions. Not only do they face that trip they are coming off a big game against in-state rival Iowa State Cyclones last week, a game in which they won 35 to 3. Not sold on their trigger man Ricky Stanzi and injuries to their OL have caused problems in their rushing attack and this is a big problem because they really do not have a consistent passing game. Iowa is 0-5 ATS at home versus non-conference opponents when laying less than twenty-two points and 0-3-1 ATS the week after facing the Cyclones. Arizona enters today’s game outgaining their first two opponents by almost 300 yards per game with RB Nic Grigsby rushing for 325 yards on 8.6 yards per carry so far this season. The Cats starting QB Matt Scott will be making his first start on the highway but with Grigsby and Antonin running the ball he should have the tools needed to capture a surprising win in Kinnick on Saturday. Teams coming off two SU wins but failing to cover the spread have not been given the respect they deserve as we see in this CFB System that tells us In Game 3, play ON a road underdog of 3½-13 points off 2 SU wins & ATS losses. These teams are 8-0 ATS and average covering the number by 17.9 points per game since 1991. We also want to Play ON a road underdog of 2-22½ points before 2 conference road games vs. an opponent off a non-conference road SU win. These road underdogs are a perfect 14-0 ATS and average covering the spread by 11.0 points per game. We will take the points here with the Cats as they surprise the Hawkeyes in Iowa on Saturday.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* ARIZONA WILDCATS 20 IOWA HAWKEYES 12

Strike Point Sports

Oklahoma State -32.5 over Rice

Here's a game that I think will be all Cowboys from start to finish. Not only is OK State coming off a loss at home to Houston, but Mike Gundy loves his offense enough to make up for that 'L' with a drubbing of hapless Rice here. And just think about this: if a respectable Texas Tech team can dominate the Owls and win 55-10, then at the very worst the Pokes are capable of replicating that margin of victory. I personally think it will be worse. All Cowboys in this one. Lay the wood as the home team cruises.

Dave Busk

Take Baylor (-10.5) over Connecticut

Connecticut comes to Waco to face Baylor in a tough spot. The Huskies were looking for revenge last week after getting clobbered at Carolina the year before 38-12 and had the Tar Heels on the ropes as a four-point home dog before losing in heart breaking fashion. Now the Huskies have to head out onto the road to face a Baylor team that is returning 18 starters back from 2008. Baylor coming off a bye week after a impressive road win in week one at Wake Forest should be focused for a Big East team at home. Connecticut went through some changes in the offseason after losing quarterback Tyler Lorenzen and standout running back Donald Brown. Head coach Randy Edsall has changed to a no-huddle offense that has struggled early on. Just a tough spot for the dog.

Indian Cowboy

Take East Carolina (+7.5) over North Carolina

This is one of the biggest public fades out there for this weekend. East Carolina fell short 20-35 to West Virginia and looks to bounce-back against their in-state rival. Bottom line here is I believe that East Carolina needs to have a big bounce-back and they will certainly be game here against UNC who comes off a huge win over Connecticut on the road. I think East Carolina will have a greater sense of urgency coming into this game and UNC might be a bit sleep walking early on given their early season success. East Carolina is 6-1 ATS against teams with a winning record and the Tar Heels are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games as a favorite by this margin.

#1 Sports

Nebraska @ Virginia Tech

Nebraska: (2-0, #19 AP) The Cornhuskers have proven to be the best crew in the Sun Belt Conference with comfortable home victories over Florida Atlantic (49-3) and Arkansas State (38-9). The problem with that is they play in the Big 12 but there is plenty for Big Red’s fans to be excited about. Head Coach Bo Pelini (12-4, 2nd season in Lincoln) has emphasized the basics of focus, attitude, and execution in practice while the team’s vastly improved overall speed has been evident immediately on game day.

The Blackshirt Defense brings experience and talent both along the line and in the backfield. 6’4” 300 senior LDT Ndamukong Suh (12 T, 4 YFL, 1 ½ S) is an absolute beast inside and has the ability to lead what could be the conference’s top defensive line. Junior ends 6’3” 265 Barry Turner (5 T, TFL, FR) and 6’5” 265 Pierre Allen (7 T, TFL) are returning starters and bring the legitimate size needed to battle Tech’s tough rushing game this week. Speaking of stopping the run, Nebraska’s defensive aren’t afraid to lay a hat on someone. Senior safeties 6’1” 215 Larry Asante and 5’11” 185 Matt O’Hanlon are both returning starters while cornerbacks 6’1” 200 junior Prince Amukamura, 6’0” 195 senior Rickey Thenarse, and 6’0” 200 junior Anthony West all boast plus size and plenty of snaps under their belts. This fivesome has combined to make 50 tackles, a couple of picks, and 3 forced fumbles through two weeks. Speed has been the plan for this linebacking corps but it’s come at the price of beef and experience. 6’3” 225 junior LB Blake Lawrence (10 T) has seen plenty of time but the plan is for 6’1” 215 sophomore WLB Mathew May (2 T), 6’1” 225 freshman MLB Will Compton (8 T), and 6’6” 230 freshman SLB Sean Fisher (8 T) to fill out the first string better than they presently fill out their uniforms. Definitely quick to the ball but will they be stout enough this week?

Against warm up opponents, first-year starter 6’2” 210 QB Zac Lee (42 of 57 for 553 yards, 6 TD, INT) has passed all tests and was especially sharp against the Red Wolves, racking up 340 pass yards and 4 scores while connecting with 13 different receivers. Lee has the bonafied arm-strength to rip a rope on the out but film also shows some telegraphing of passes that he won’t get away with this week. This offensive line must control the game to win and Nebraska’s left side returns intact with 6’6” 295 junior LT Mike Smith, 6’5” 306 junior LG Keith Williams, and 6’4” 290 senior C Jacob Hickman leading the way for 6.6 yards per carry so far. We’ve kidded about Sun Belt competition but Arkansas State does boast a defensive line that can compete against nearly any team in the nation. 6’4” 240 junior TE Mike McNeil (8 for 108 and 2 TD) will be a popular target all campaign but there were questions about the Huskers replacing both top wideouts and both top backs. So far, 6’2” 220 senior WR Menelik Holt (8 for 85 and TD), 6’1” 215 junior WR Niles Paul (8 for 82 and TD, 1 rush for 30 yards and TD), and 6’0” 215 sophomore WR Curenski Gilleylen (5 for 135 and TD) have fit the bill on the outside while 6’2” 215 junior RB Roy Helu (30 for 212 and 3 TD, 5 for 47 receiving) and 5’11” 200 freshman RB Rex Burkhead (12 for 57 and TD, 2 for 20 receiving) have displayed power and explosion.

Virginia Tech: (1-1, #13 AP) The Hokies were pushed around pretty good (155 offensive yards to 498) in their opening 24-34 loss to Alabama but had it all working last week, piling up 444 rush yards in a 52-10 home victory over Marshall. As always, Head Coach Frank Beamer’s (178-90-2 in 23rd year in Blacksburg) defense and special teams (122 blocked kicks in 270 games) will be sharp but the question remains as to whether 6’1” 216 junior QB Tyrod Taylor (18 of 36 for 252 yards, 2 TD, INT) has what it takes to lead a national contender.

“T-Mobile” racked 744 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground in 2008 and holds a fine 14-3 mark as a starter but his accuracy (career 55.1% completions, 9 TD, 11 INT) and ability to get the ball down field (career 6.46 yards per attempt) are questionable. Returning starting linemen in 6’5” 309 senior LT Ed Wang, 6’3” 313 senior LG Sergio Render, and 6’5” 313 sophomore RT Blake DeChristopher certainly helps the cause but Taylor’s run first, pass second skills have already resulted in 8 surrendered sacks. So far, tight ends Greg Boone and Andre Smith are without catches while receivers 6’4” 223 freshman Xavier Bryce, 6’0” 206 sophomore Danny Coale, 6’2” sophomore Dyrell Roberts, and 6’2” 215 sophomore have combined to make 12 grabs through 2 contests. That being said, Virginia tech can rush the rock with 254.0 ground yards per game at nifty 6.0 yard per carry clip. 5’10 206 redshirt freshman Ryan Williams (29 for 235 and 5 TD) has been superb in place of Kenny Lewis, who tore an ACL in fall practice, and 5’10” 200 true freshman David Wilson (12 for 165 and TD) has put on a display of his 4.33 speed.

The Tech defense lost plenty of talent from last season but they just keep coming in Blacksburg. Defensive ends 6’2” 262 junior Jason Worlids (7 T, S) and 6’2” 248 senior Nekos Brown (8 T) are first year starters yet to pile up the sacks but they have brought plenty of heat (3 team sacks and 24 quarterback hurries) while returning starters 6’3” 288 junior LDT John Graves (3 T) and 6’2” 301 senior RDT Cordarrow Thompson (3 T) are a handful. Barquell Rivers, Jake Johnson, Cody Grimm completely remake the starting linebacker unit from 2008 but have been very active, combining for 50 tackle including 5 for loss while popping a couple of balls loose. Few schools in the country has a defensive backfield tradition – or terminology – like the Hokies and this group measures up to history. Safeties 5’11” 209 Dorian Porch (8 T) and 30-game starter 6’4” 230 senior FS Kam Chancellor (9 T, TFL) both return but the man to watch is 5’11” 189 senior CB Stephan Virgil (9 T, 3 TFL, FR). For this season, Virgil moved from “field corner” to “boundary corner” which is the glamour, play-making position of the group. Each of the last 4 Tech players to hold this spot – DeAngelo Hall, Jimmy Williams, Brandon Flowers, and Macho Harris – have earned 1st-team All American honors. PR Jayron Hosley (24.8 yards per, 64-yard TD) and KR Dyrell Roberts (48.8 per, 98-yards TD) each have already racked return scores.

SELECTION: Frankly, we love the work Bo Pelini has been doing in Lincoln to restore his school to a national contender but we can’t give his crew the nod. The Huskers have lost 9 straight games against ranked teams and bringing a first-year quarterback into Blacksburg is tough to discount. Frank Beamer’s staff is the most experienced in the country and have led squads to 31 consecutive wins at Lane Stadium against non-conference opponents and 9 straight home wins against all comers. We’re positive about Big Red but we’ve got to take Virginia Tech - 4.

Mike Wynn Sports

Florida St @ BYU

There’s quite a buzz in Provo, Utah these days as the BYU Cougars are 2-0 and ranked 7th, their highest ranking since 1996 when they finished the season ranked 5th. There’s also a buzz of different sorts going on in Tallahassee these days. After dropping their home opener to Miami, Florida St was flat in a narrow 19-9 win over Jacksonville St. Seminoles actually scored twice in the final 35 seconds in the 10 point win last Saturday. So with both these teams seemingly headed in different directions this game becomes huge for both teams. BYU has dreams of a BCS Championship as they have a favorable schedule to do it while Florida St wants to get back some respect by knocking off a Top 10 opponent on the road. So let’s take a look at both schools and we’ll start with the visiting Seminoles of Florida St.

Maybe getting out of Tallahassee for a game is just what Florida St needs at this point. Seminoles lost a heart breaker to rival Miami to open up the season in what was called one of the greatest games that storied series has ever seen. Predictably Florida St was flat last Saturday against Jacksonville St, but to be trailing 9-7 at home in the waning seconds, they must have had no pulse in that game what so ever. Florida St is a better squad than that however and this team is a formidable opponent for anybody. Junior QB Ponder is solid at the trigger spot and there’s talent in the backfield and wide out spots, but Florida St needs to have better play on the offensive line. Defensively the Seminoles are not the same Florida St we’ve seen in the past. They don’t have the studs up front who can really get after the QB and they lack the great athletic advantage they’ve enjoyed in the past is not there. Subsequently they’re giving up nearly 300 yards passing per game and the average completion of 9.8 yards makes it tough for the defense to get off the field. Florida St must improve on the pass defense this Saturday night or the Seminoles could be in for a long night.

BYU has expectations very high for their fans as they head into to Saturday’s home opener at 2-0. Cougars knocked off the third ranked Oklahoma Sooners in week 1 14-13 before rolling over Tulane in a 54-3 massacre. Cougar’s number 7 ranking their highest in a dozen years and with their toughest games remaining at home in LaVell Edwards Stadium, it’s easy to see why BYU fans are smiling. BYU has a solid QB in senior Max Hall whose now in the Heisman Trophy talk after the 2-0 start. Hall has completed 71.4% of his passes so far this season and has 4 touchdowns to his credit. BYU offensive line, a bit of a question mark coming into the season, has done its job so far this season. Defensively the Cougars 3-4 defense is holding opponents to just 2.8 yards per carry and they’ve forced 6 turnovers already in 2 games. Senior DE Jan Jorgensen is the anchor on the defensive line that is deep and talented and figures to be the strength of the stop unit this season. BYU has won 18 straight at home and the high altitude is always tough on the opposition.

There’s a little history between these two schools as they’ve met twice before with Florida St winning both games. Florida St is 23-13 ATS after a two game home stand, and the Seminoles are 15-10 ATS versus non-conference opponents since 2003. BYU on the other hand is 10-3 straight up and 9-3 ATS in home openers, but they’re 0-10 ATS as a home favorite of 14 points or less off two straight road games. Checking the totals trends Florida St has been an under play at 26-14 under when playing non-conference teams on the road and BYU on 15-4 under run at home after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game. With that said I recommend an over play here Saturday night. Florida St under trends were accumulated when their defense was top notch, but that’s not the case these days. Florida St defense will have troubles stopping the passing game of BYU while the Seminoles are capable of putting up points as well. This game may well turn into a shootout and we’ll gladly play it over the 56 points Saturday night.

John Martin

1 Unit on East Carolina +7.5

East Carolina is always at their most dangerous in the role of the underdog. There's no doubt the Pirates will be up to play UNC, a team that is battling several injuries to their offensive line. The Tar Heels needed 12 unanswered points in the fourth quarter last week to beat a down UConn team 12-10. They'll need a lot more than that to go their way to fend off this pesky Pirates' squad. The Pirates continue to steal profits with a 13-4 ATS record as road underdogs under coach Skip Holtz. UNC is 8-21 ATS in home games in September games since 1992. East Carolina is 9-1 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better since 1992. UNC QB T.J. Yates has thrown 4 interceptions already in the early going, so look for the Pirates to capitalize on turnovers this week, unlike they did last Saturday against WVU. Cash in with East Carolina as the underdog.

Black Widow

1* on Notre Dame -10

Notre Dame returns home to recover from a crushing loss to Michigan. It would be tough for most teams to come back from a loss like that, but not for this experienced Fighting Irish squad. That's especially the case with Michigan State coming to town, a team that has had Notre Dame's number to say the least. Maybe the only team less intimidated by the Touchdown Jesus surroundings in South Bend is USC compared to Michigan State. The Spartans are 1-1 after being upset by Central Michigan and have won six straight at Notre Dame Stadium, five as an underdog. We're going against that trend Saturday because the fact of the matter is that Notre Dame is far and away the more talented team. They beat a very good Nevada squad 35-0 in their home opener in Week 1. The Spartans are having to break in a new quarterback this season, and the loss of RB Javon Ringer has been felt already. Central Michigan passed for 352 yards on the Spartans last week, so look for Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen and his talented trio of receivers to have a field day Saturday. Michigan State is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992. The Fighting Irish are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Take Notre Dame and lay the points.

SEAN MURPHY

North Texas @ Alabama
PICK: Under 52.5

In order for this game to get over the posted total, both teams are going to have to do their part offensively.

While the Crimson Tide are currently favored by 38.5 points, I'm not sure that they're all that concerned with their margin of victory. They failed to cover the number against another Sun Belt Conference opponent last week in Florida International. They scored 40 points in that contest. While they should approach that number again this Saturday, I'm not convinced that they get there against a much improved North Texas defense.

The Mean Green have showed some promise early on, covering the spread in each of their first two games against Ball State and Ohio. The ATS win over Ball State came on the road, and it came in outright fashion. In regulation time, North Texas' defense has allowed a grand total of just 30 points. I'm not saying they contain this Alabama offense, but I do believe they can keep things reasonable.

Note that Alabama could be without two of its top offensive weapons in RB Roy Upchurch and WR Julio Jones. Both suffered minor injuries in last week's game. There's no need for the Tide to push either one of them, especially with the start of SEC looming next week.

It's unlikely that North Texas will be able to accomplish much offensively as their starting QB Riley Dodge is not expected to play due to a shoulder injury. Dodge had been the team's spark plug, throwing for 333 yards and two touchdowns while also running for 78 yards through two games. The Mean Green ground game has been solid so far, but that was against two MAC opponents. We should see a much different story against a rock solid Alabama front line.

I expect North Texas to top out somewhere between six and 10 points in this game, and given the current point spread, that gives us a solid overlay with the total sitting in the low-50s. Don't be surprised if the Mean Green defense comes to play. Both teams will be looking to keep the clock moving, and I expect to see a final score in the low-40s. Take the under.

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY (OVERALL GOM)

AUBURN -7 over West Virginia

The Tigers offense is much improved as they have averaged 43 ppg and 572 ypg so far this year, compared to the 17 ppg and 302 ypg they put up last year. WVA has not looked all that good in the early going and they were really sloppy last week vs the pirates (11 Penalties and 4 TO's) in their come from behind win. Auburn has revenge after last years 31-17 loss, despite jumping out 14-0. WVA is 0-6 as RD's of 4 or more vs an opponent with revenge, while the Tigers are 6-2 with revenge vs an opponnent of a SU & ATS win. My Power Ratings (108-98) call for a 10 point Tigers win and I agree that it will be a double digit win for them.

4 UNIT PLAYS

BAYLOR -10.5 over Uconn

Baylor is 5-0 ATS as favs of 10 or more off a SU dog win & 6-1 ATS as non-conf home favs. The Bears are off a bye, return 18 starters and are facing a UConn team that is without QB Frazer and possibly their top LB. Griffin will have a big game for the Bears, while Baylors D keeps a UConn offense down that has struggled to start the year. Baylor by 14+ here.

UAB +6.5 over Troy

Last week I felt the Ponies had enough offense to keep it close vs the Blazers and they did. UAB did have the better offense in that one, but not 12 points better. This week UAB has the better offense once again, only now they are getting points. Webb will have another big game as UAB wins outright vs a Troy team that is just 1-5 ATS as non-conf favs (0-1 this year). My power ratings (86-84) do call for the outright UAB win and I agree.

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

TEXAS A&M -19.5 over Utah State

Off a tough 4-8 year the Aggies looked good in their opening 41-6 win over New Mexico. This is a hungry team and with 3 easy home dates to start they year they will look to build confidence with some easy wins. Utah State is better than last year, but are really overmatched in this one. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY-- The Aggies are 12-0 ATS as favs of 27 or less vs a non conf opponent thats off a DD SU loss. Aggies by 24+ here.

WASHINGTON +19.5 over USC

Tough spot for USC here as they are off a hard fought last minute win vs Ohio State. Last year USC was 25 point favs vs Oregon State after playing Ohio State and lost the game outright. Former USC OC Sarkisian is now head mad at Washington and he will have his team ready. Washington is playing very good ball in the early going, after last years 0-12 mark and with another solid game from Locker they should keep this one to less that 2 TD's.

Teaser Of The Week-- 2-0 So Far

3 Team 10 Point Teaser--- Baylor -.5, UAB +16.5 & Notre Dame PK

2 UNIT PLAYS

FAU +20.5 over South Carolina

Classic sandwich game for South Carolina as they are between SEC games. The Owls will be a player in the Sun Belt this year and should keep this one close. My PR's have SC by 18 and I feel it will be closer than that despite the Owls 0-13 ATS run in opposing BCS schools stadiums.

FLORIDA -29.5 over Tennessee: The Gators will make Kiffin eat his words in a rout of 35+.

1 UNIT PLAYS

Air Force -17.5 over NEW MEXICO

MARSHALL +3 over Bowling Green

WUNDERDOG

Ball State at Army
Pick: Ball State +8

When you see an Army team as a TD+ favorite you certainly should take a close hard look at the game. This team was once a national power, but the last decade of Army football sure hasn't looked pretty. Since the turn of the century, covering nine seasons, Army owns a 20-85 straight-up record, winning just 19% of their football games this decade. During the course of those nine seasons, the Black Knights have never had a season where they won more than four games. Over the same period, they have been listed as a favorite just 10 times. If you exclude their game vs. Navy, where anything can happen, they are just 2-7 ATS as a favorite. And, when they have been favored by two points or more they are just 1-7 ATS, having lost straight up in five of those eight games. Those straight-up losses include one as a 15.5 point favorite and another as a 10 point favorite. The bottom line is that this team giving points, especially in this range, simply makes no sense. Ball State lost a lot of firepower from last year and has struggled, but what they do have is experience defending the triple option. They played Navy and beat them and their triple option each of the last two years. Army does not run it nearly as cleanly or as successfully (four turnovers did them in against Duke last week). I expect more of the same here and will back Ball State in this one.

Brad Diamond Sports

Play: LSU over UL-Lafayette

The Fighting Tigers are now on a serious 0-8 ATS run in Baton Rouge, however, that could change on Saturday night when the local Cajuns come calling. ULL has the offensive weapons to test the LSU ever changing defense. But, some food for thought before executing the exchange rate at the Hilton. Head coach Les Miles has kept a conservative approach on offense in the initial games versus Washington and Vanderbilt. On Saturday, we expect that to change for the better. QB Jordan Jefferson will add big play types at full speed this week, including athlete Russell Sheppard and wide out Reuben Randle. Also, we have heard the running attack will feature a new wrinkle that spreads the field. ULL does return 16 starters, but lost the heart and soul of their offense QB Mike Desormeaux who managed over 2,000 yards in total offense in 2008. For a real blowout....MOVE ON THE TIGERS!