DAVE COKIN
EASTERN MICHIGAN / MICHIGAN
TAKE: MICHIGAN
You might think Michigan is in a letdown spot after battling rival Notre Dame last week. However, take a look at Eastern Michigan.5?s situation: At Northwestern last week, and now at Michigan. And this is a bad Eastern Michigan (0-2 SU/1-1 ATS) defense, one that got steamrolled by the Army ground game in the opener, a 27-14 loss. The Eagles have a new coach in former Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English. The offense has senior QB Andy Schmitt (15 TDs, 8 INTs in 2008), but this defense was awful and has been for a while. They allowed 303 rushing yards to Army. Northwestern had the Eagles blown out, up 21-0 and seemingly on their way to a rout. Give the Eagles credit for taking advantage of very sloppy Northwestern play in mounting a very surprising comeback. But I feel this was more a result of the big favorite letting up and almost getting bitten in the process.
Michigan (2-0 SU/ATS) is back! At least for a week. The Wolverines are off a thrilling 38-34 win over No. 18 Notre Dame on Saturday, as freshman QB Tate Forcier (5 TDs, 1 INT) continues to impress, completing 23-of-33 for 240 yards, 2 TDs and 1 pick, plus running for 70 yards. Forcier's 5-yard touchdown pass to Greg Mathews with 11 seconds left capped a game-winning drive. The defense was also a problem, allowing 28.9 ppg, so they bring in new defensive coordinator Greg Robinson, the former Syracuse coach and DC at Texas. They allowed 490 yards to Notre Dame. The Wolverines also had a 31-7 win over a good MAC team, Western Michigan, with 438 yards (242 rushing). I don't see a letdown taking place here. Instead, I like the Wolverines to build off the big win and deliver a strong statement against the outmanned Eagles.
GoodFella
Washington St. +6 vs SMU
Quite simply SMU is a terrible team too, and no way should they be a TD favorite ON THE ROAD vs a Pac-10 team, I don't care how bad Wazzu is, and they are bad. This very well may be Wazzu's only real shot at a Victory this season & they should be extremely up for this home game. Quite simply, grab the +6 and look for a no drama winner here.
Matt Fargo
Bowling Green vs. Marshall
Play: Marshall +3
Marshall has looked horrible in its first two games while Bowling Green has looked great in its first two games. So who do you think we are going with here? The Thundering Herd were dismantled at Virginia Tech last weekend and we cashed a ticket going against them. It was a horrible spot for Marshall as it was facing a Virginia Tech team that was out for blood following its loss against Alabama the previous week. Add to that, Marshall went into that game only 3-21 on the road under head coach Mark Snyder. It is now home again and will look to bounce back not only from that loss but also from its first home game against Southern Illinois where it escaped with a 31-28 victory. Bowling Green opened the season with a home win over Troy but I think people are taking that win a little too importantly as the Trojans are good but not as good when leaving home in a non-conference game. The Falcons played great last week at Missouri as they lost by just a touchdown in a game they led for the majority of. Losing a game like that is tough to overcome especially for a team from the MAC when it was against a BCS conference team. It can be argued that a team can carry some confidence forward from a loss like that but I’m not buying into that here. The Falcons host Boise St. next week so this is more of a sandwich game than anything else. Marshall found itself in a similar spot last season. It defeated FCS team Illinois St. then went on the road and got pounded at Wisconsin. It then came back home and won the following week and even though that happened to be a conference game, there may be something to prove this weekend. For the first time since leaving for C-USA, Marshall takes on a team from the MAC. Let’s not forget that this is where Marshall came from and this should be a statement game for not only the team, but everyone in the athletic department and all those involved. Bowling Green brings in a strong offense but one that is not the same as what Marshall saw last week against Virginia Tech. The Falcons bring in an up-tempo, pass heavy attack that the Herd have dealt with many times with Tulsa, Houston and Rice from C-USA's West Division. Over the last two seasons, Marshall is 2-4 against those three teams but only one of those games was decided by more than seven points and that was the game at Rice last season. Marshall went 2-1 in the game at home, losing to Tulsa last season by just a field goal. The Thundering Herd should be able to win this one outright as get some of their respect back. 3* Marshall Thundering Herd
Craig Trapp
USC vs. Washington U
Play: Washington +18.5
This week think USC and Washington game provides a huge trap for USC. USC goes into this game as a 21 point favorite and after a huge road win at Ohio State. Most do not realize how tough it is for a West Coast team to play a huge game in the Eastern Time Zone. The game with Ohio State was a very hard fought game for the Trojans and even though they pulled out a win they came out pretty banged up. Yes we all know that USC is much more talented then Washington but the Trojans will fall victim to a let down and will be lucky to pull out a win here. Oh and don't forget that starting QB Barkley most likely will not play with a shoulder injury.
Also in the favor of Washington this week is they know USC very well as new head coach Steve Sarkisian and with former Carroll assistant Nick Holt as defensive coordinator. These two know USC schemes forward and backwards and will have Washington poised to take advantage of them. If anyone watched the first game of year the Huskies look a ton better against a very good LSU team and easily covered the spread. Think they easily cover again this week against a USC team that is just looking to get out with a win. The offense will move the ball the key will be if they can hold the turnovers below 2 for the game. The defense still lack the elite playmakers but they are sound tacklers and all rally to the ball every play. Washington was shut out and embarrassed last year and these players have not forgot. USC better come to play or they will once again lose a game to a 14 plus point underdog. SCORE USC 20 - WASH 17
Murray Hill Mike
Michigan St. at Notre Dame
Prediction: Notre Dame
Michigan State at Notre Dame - Both Michigan State and Notre Dame are coming off crushing losses. The Spartans allowed the Central Michigan Chippewas to go downfield and score a touchdown in the waning minutes of the game only to stop the Chippewas two-point conversion to hold onto the lead. However CMU connected on their on-side attempt and the Chipps attempted a 47-yard field goal which was wide left, but a crucial offside penalty by the Spartans defense pushed him up five yards for a successful game-winning field goal. Notre Dame faced a similar situation where they came back from 11 down only to allow Michigan to score in the final minute of the game.
The road team in this series had won outright in seven straight years from 2001-07 before the Spartans 23-7 win in East Lansing last year. Notre Dame will do the same this year. This is a very talented Fighting Irish squad. CMU was able to throw the ball for over 350 yards against the Spartans last week, so there is no telling what Jimmy Clausen and his weapons will do against them. Do not let the double digit spread scare you, this Notre Dame team will cover this easily. Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is 9-18 on the road in his career. Consider the team trends. Michigan State is 7-20 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite, 33-55 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, 3-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 and 2-6 ATS off a close home loss by 3 points or less. Notre Dame is 4-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, 4-1 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 and 3-0 ATS after gaining 325 or more passing yards in 2 straight games. Notre Dame is the play. Take Notre Dame
Joseph D'Amico
USC vs. Washington U
Play: USC -18½
Today's winner is USC over Washington. Washington beat Idaho to win their first game in their last 16 outings. But let's not make room in the Top 10 rankings for Washington just yet. Southern Cal QB Barkley showed alot of poise in their late win over Ohio State a week ago. That's just what the doctor ordered for the frosh QB. The Huskie's have to deal with the #3 team in the nation who has won 12 straight over some of the NCAAF's best teams. I know Washington HC Sarkisian was the Trojan's OC, but he just doesn't have the horses to contend with USC. The Huskie's are 1-5 ATS their last 6 as a home 'dog, 0-6 ATS their last 6 games played vs. teams with a winning record, and 0-9 ATS their last 9 games following a ATS loss. USC will wipe the floor with Washington.
Info Plays
3* on Oklahoma -16.5
Reasons why Oklahoma covers the spread:
1.) The Sooners are going to be under-valued until Sam Bradford returns. Yes, he's a great player, but he doesn't make or break this team. Oklahoma returns one of the top defenses in the country, and through two games Oklahoma is giving up just 7.0 PPG. Nine starters are back defensively, and they are really making their presence felt. Tulsa has only five starters back on offense. One of the key elements missing from last year’s high-powered offense is quarterback David Johnson, who threw for over 4,000 yards and 46 touchdowns. New QB G.J. Kinne will struggle against this Oklahoma defense. The last time these teams met was in 2007, with Oklahoma coming away with a 62-21 road win.
2.) Tulsa is 0-6 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons. The Sooners are 9-1 ATS after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons. The Sooners know that their only shot to get back to a National Championship is to win out, and win impressively in the process. Don't expect the Sooners to put on the breaks once they get up big in this one. Bet Oklahoma at home.
ATS CONSULTANTS
Newsletter Plays
3 Units Utah covers over Oregon 34-35
3 Units California over Minnesota 44-20
2 Units Arizona over Iowa 34-21
2 Units Clemson over Boston College 38-21
2 Units Kentucky over Louisville 34-20
2 Units Texas over Texas Tech 48-31
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
SMU -6 vs Washington State
Texas A&M -19 vs Utah State
Florida -29.5 vs Tennessee
Southern Mississippi -15.5 vs Virginia
Air Force -17 vs New Mexico
Arkansas -2 vs Georgia
Single Plays
Texas -17.5 vs Texas Tech
Baylor -10.5 vs UConn
Oklahoma State -33 vs Rice
Army -8 vs Ball State
Michigan -24 vs Eastern Michigan
Navy +7.5 vs Pittsburgh
Clemson -7 vs Boston College
Kansas -22.5 vs Duke
Auburn -7.5 vs West Virginia
BYU -8 vs Florida State
UTEP -13.5 vs New Mexico State
UNLV -7 vs Hawaii
Arizona State -19.5 vs ULa Monroe
Larry Ness
Miami Ohio @ Western Michigan
PICK: Western Michigan -16.5
The 2009 CFB season opened with 22 new head coaches. I'm not sure one could argue against the fact that Miami-Ohio's Michael Haywood is off to the worst start of any of them. The RedHawks opened with a 42-0 home loss to Kentucky and then traveled to Boise's famous "blue turf" last Saturday, losing 48-0. QB Raudabaugh has completed 49.3 percent of his passes for 140.5 YPG without a TD and four INTs. The running game has averaged 50 YPG while averaging 2.1 YPC. The overwhelmed defense has allowed 45.0 PPG and 464.5 YPG (186 on the ground / 4.8 YPC / 6 TDs). Western Michigan also comes in 0-2 but the Broncos have lost at Michigan (now ranked) and at Indiana (just 23-19). Billy Cubit's team has been a bowl team in TWO of the last three seasons (8-5 in 2006 and 9-4 last year) and in QB Tim Hiller will have BY FAR, the best player on the field. Hiller's averaged almost 3,400 YPG passing the last two seasons (just over 64 percent) with 56 TDs and 25 INTs. Including the first two games of the 2009 season, his career ratio is an impressive 78-30. RB Brandon West has been stymied the first two games (28 for 77 yards / 2.8 YPC) but he should thrive vs Miami, as after all, he ran for 848 yards (4.6 YPC) in 2007 and 1,026 yards (5.0 YPC) in 2008. Look for the Broncos to roll in this one, although the RedHawks just may score their first points of the 2009 season. Lay it!
Tony George
Nebraska vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Nebraska +5
Nebraska has blown out and dominated 2 weak sisters, and have not allowed an offensive TD all year as Bo Pellinis stamp on the defense is apparent and the blackshirts are fired up. QB Lee for Nebraska is a young Turner Gill prototype and has the tools both through the air and running it to give defenses fits, and NU will need that versus a solid VT defense. Doubt Nebraska resembles Marshalls offense for VT to shut down and or roll up points on like last week. This was a 35-30 game last year in Lincoln, and Nebraska has a better defense this year with Suh leading the way, this DL will give VT some issues in a hard fought game. I would grab the points here. Virginia Tech 20 NU 17
Tulsa vs Oklahoma
Play: Tulsa +16.5
Much like BYU, a spread type attack and some really good players for Hurricanes might give OU a game here. While losing QB Bradford a HUGE hit for OU, they hope to have him back by the Texas game, at least they better! The Sooners defense was exposed a little against BYU, and I see Tulsa, who averages 40 ppg while allowing only 11 a formidable in state foe for big brother OU. Tulsa QB Kinne had 4 TD passes last week, and has enough weapons to trade punches with OU and keep it under the Number. Oklahoma 38 Tulsa 24
Dave Malinsky
Tennessee @ Florida
PICK: Tennessee +30
There was no particular hurry to get to this one – we have been able to sit in the huddle all week watching the market go up while the play clock runs down, but now with +30 available across the board it is time to go ahead and run the play. Rarely have we ever seen a concept as over-hyped by the media as Urban Meyer wanting to rub it in on Lane Kiffin following some ill-advised off-season comments by the latter, and of course the betting public has latched on. That gives us outstanding value to take the kind of athletes that we simply do not ever find in this pointspread range.
Is it so easy that Meyer can dictate whatever score he wants? Of course not. And is the real goal of Meyer to go out of his way to subject Kiffin to an embarrassment? We don’t buy that either. As attractive as that may sound as a betting concept, Meyer likely will have to win 13 straight games to qualify for a spot in the BCS Championship, and with so many challenges ahead, including an S.E.C, trip next week, he is savvy enough to make this all about “business”.
Here is the rub – we get a defense at +30 that did not allow more than that number in a single game LY, and while Florida was the team that rang up the 30, note how it happened – the Gators were held to season-lows of 16 first downs and 243 yards, but special teams and a +3 turnover advantage did the trick. This will be the fifth time around for the Tennessee red-shirt SR’s on defense against the Gator spread, and they have held them to 338.8 yards per game through the first four. This is not only an athletic defense that can match up across the field, keyed by SS Eric Berry, who may well be the best defensive player in the nation, but they are also under the tutelage now of Monte Kiffin, one of the best DC’s that the sport has produced. And you can be sure that the challenge of this particular setting has been a focus for Kiffin for quite some time (we particularly enjoyed a SPORTING NEWS column from Matt Hayes, who interviewed Kiffin following the latter’s surgery back in the spring, and saw that he was already back in his office breaking down Florida films). Kiffin’s forte has been to take big plays away and force the opposition to execute with precision to get down the field, and that helps to bring us just the tempo that we are looking for.
The Tennessee offense may not be anything special yet, but absolutely brings enough for this setting – there are seven senior starters that have been through enough S.E.C. road battles to stand up to this environment. We say “yet”, because there are freshmen game-changers in RB Bryce Brown (22 carries for 138 yards and a TD so far), and WR Marsalis Teague (six catches for 86 yards and a TD) that will become bigger factors each week, and they are the kind of talents that can compete one-on-one with the Florida players they are up against.
We do not see either the talent gap, or the intent of Meyer, meriting anywhere near this pointspread range. Do not be surprised to find the Vols competing hard for the full 60 minutes, and for Meyer to focus on game management in the latter stages, with the BCS Trophy the prize, and not the ego battle that is driving the markets to this game.
Spartan
Kansas State at UCLA
I am suggesting a wager on UCLA as they welcome in the Big 12's Kansas State Wildcats. Last week I loved UL-Lafayette as they hosted the Wildcats and they got the outright victory. It was a Triple for me. The oddsmakers are putting too much stock in the return of Bill Snyder as head coach of Kansas State guys, people I talk with and trust tell me the talent level in Manhattan was worse than he feared and the road back is going to be bumpy to say the least. Now after that loss to the Rajin Cajuns they travel out to Los Angeles to meet UCLA. I realize a back up quarterback will be under center for the Bruins and that's fine by me. I do not think it will make a difference. Only thing I see standing between UCLA and a cover is an outbreak of turnovers or the damn flu. I'm taking UCLA -12
Dennis Macklin
Air Force vs. New Mexico
Play: Air Force -17
Lay the points with the Air Force over New Mexico: The Lobos were smoked twice by 30+ in the first two games under their new regime and arent getting favors opening up Mountain West Schedule versus Falcons. Air Force deserved better in tough loss at Minnesota. The Flyboys are 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in their L9 MWC road openers and 9-2 chalk (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS road faves) under their HC Troy Calhoun. Add the mix five straight series covers by the Falcons and you have a pretty strong case for Air Force.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Arkansas Razorbacks -1
With 2 weeks to prepare, look for the Razorbacks to take care of business at home against Georgia this week. Not only will Arkansas be well prepared, but it will be hungry to get back out on the football field to hit someone else after such a long layoff. Georgia is down after losing Stafford and Moreno and the defense that was supposed to carry the Dawgs this season allowed 37 points and big yards to South Carolina last week. Arkansas QB Ryan Mallet is the real deal, I knew it when I saw him play for Michigan a couple years ago. Expect a big day through the air for him and a big win for the hogs. Take Arkansas.