Chris Jordan
California at MINNESOTA +13'
I admit it, the Golden Bears are a much more dangerous and talented team than Minnesota.
The Gophers aren't quite as explosive, and certainly don't have the skill-position players the Bears do.
But since this is the second consecutive home game for the Golden Gophers, in their new digs, I don't think this line should be in double digits. I don't believe Cal should be laying about two touchdowns a week before it heads to Eugene to open Pac 10 play against a dangerous Oregon team.
Quite honestly, this is the first big test for California, and I think its going to get all it can handle in this one.
The game is going to be televised on ESPN, as the entire nation will get its first look at the 50,000-seat, open-air, on-campus facility in downtown Minneapolis, which hasn't seen such a thing since the Vikings played at the old 48,000-seat Metropolitan Stadium.
This is huge. Bigger than last week's stadium-opener against Air Force.
And while I am all-too familiar with Jahvid Best and the Bears, this is Big 10 football baby, and they're not just going to come in and push a motivated Gophers team around.
Remember, Minnesota brought 10 starters back on offense, so it'll be inclined to put on a show right along with the dancing Bears from Berkeley. And even though Cal is third in the nation in scoring offense with 55.0 points per game, not to mention is bringing arguably the most talented running back in the country in Best, this is a vastly improved Gophers defense that shut down Air Force's vaunted triple-option.
Go back to last season for a moment ... keep in mind that Cal lost its last four games away from home last season. So after easy wins over Maryland and Eastern Washington to start the 2009 campaign, Cal is going to have its hands full with, again, its first big test.
Take the points.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Karl Garrett
Connecicut at BAYLOR -10'
6-2 comp play run the last 8 days.
G-Man gets the feeling that their is going to be a serious payback in Waco this Saturday afternoon, as Baylor gets some sweet revenge on a Connecticut team that dumped them 31-28 last year in Storrs.
Baylor has been off since their road upset win at Wake Forest on the 9th, and they are currently in the midst of a 6-game cover tear, and have also covered in 9 of their last 11 lined games.
Last year Baylor was able to cover ALL 3 games when installed as the favorite, and now that they have another years experience under their belts, especially QB Robert Griffin, they should be able to extend the numbers we just listed above.
Connecticut's offense has struggled with their new no-huddle, spread attack, and now they must go without their starter Frazer who is hampered by a knee injury.
The Huskies are just 4-9 against the spread as a road dog since 2006, and the G-Man doesn't see them covering in this one, even with the generous spot.
Play on Baylor minus the points.
4♦ BAYLOR
Jeff Benton
Air Force -17 at NEW MEXICO
For Saturday’s freebie in college football, I’ll take Air Force and lay the big points on the road at New Mexico.
To say that New Mexico is off to a horrific start would be a colossal understatement. Not only have the Lobos lost their first two games under new coach Mike Locksley, they weren’t even remotely competitive, falling to Texas A&M (road) and Tulsa (home) by a combined tally of 85-16! As you might expect, New Mexico was dominated in every possible way in those two games, getting outgained by a combined 693 yards, including surrendering an average of 547.5 total yards per game, with 198 of that on the ground.
Now here comes Air Force and its tricky triple-option offense that gives every opponent fits – even ones that can play defense, which New Mexico clearly cannot. The Falcons routinely rank among the top five nationally in rushing yards, and this year appears as though it won’t be any different, as they’re putting up 367.5 rushing ypg, including averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Compare that to the Lobos, who have gained a TOTAL of 72 yards on the ground this season (1.6 per carry).
Air Force is coming off a tough 20-13 loss at Minnesota, but the Falcons actually dominated that game (which was played in a very tough environment, as the Gophers were opening up their new on-campus stadium). Air Force had a 10-3 lead entering the fourth quarter, but the difference in the game proved to be a fumble that Minnesota returned 51 yards for the deciding score. Still, the Falcons outgained their Big Ten opponent 386-327, including 261-108 on the ground; they had 24 first downs to 14 for Minnesota; and the offense went 14-for-21 (66 percent) on third and fourth down, while holding the Gophers to 4-for-11 (36 percent) on third down.
The Falcons have flat-out owned this rivalry, too, going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS the last six years, and that was when the Lobos were pretty competitive under old coach Rocky Long. Also, the favorite has cashed in six of the last eight meetings.
Granted, this is an inflated pointspread because of how poorly New Mexico has played to start the year, but I don’t mind laying it because the Lobos have shown no ability to score on offense or stop anyone on defense. And given the disparity in the two rushing attacks on both sides of the football, Air Force should control this one from start to finish. The Falcons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last four as a double-digit chalk and 8-0 ATS in their last eight against teams with a losing record, while New Mexico has failed to cover in four straight overall and eight of 11 as an underdog. Lay the price and watch the Fly Boys soar to an easy victory in Albuquerque.
7♦ AIR FORCE
Tony Weston
Bad call with the Rangers yesterday as Texas gets blanked by the Angels. I’m not losing again as I’m cashing in with some college football action in the Pacific Northwest.
I’m looking at some Pac-10 action as I’m taking Washington plus about 19 1/2 or 20 points at home against visiting USC.
Sure, that may seem ridiculous, but follow me on this one.
Over the last four seasons even though the Trojans are a perfect 4-0 SU against the Huskies, they’ve covered only once, going 1-3 ATS against Washington.
Last week the Trojans had trouble on the road and failed to cover in their fourth straight road game. In fact, USC has failed to cover in four straight roadies when installed as a favorite and the team is actually just 1-4 ATS its last 5 games against the Pac-10.
Consider, too, the Trojans will be without starting quarterback Matt Barkley and will have to play against former offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian.
It’ll be another non-cover for USC as the Huskies keep this one close enough.
3♦ WASHINGTON
Hentai Sports
USC Trojans at Washington Huskies
Prediction : USC Trojans -18
Washington beat Idaho to win their first game in their last 16 outings. But let’s not make room in the Top 10 rankings for Washington just yet. Southern Cal QB Barkley showed alot of poise in their late win over Ohio State a week ago. That’s just what the doctor ordered for the frosh QB. The Huskie’s have to deal with the #3 team in the nation who has won 12 straight over some of the NCAAF’s best teams. I know Washington HC Sarkisian was the Trojan’s OC, but he just doesn’t have the horses to contend with USC. The Huskie’s are 1-5 ATS their last 6 as a home ‘dog, 0-6 ATS their last 6 games played vs. teams with a winning record, and 0-9 ATS their last 9 games following a ATS loss. USC will wipe the floor with Washington.
BIG AL
San Diego at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh may have recently secured a record for the most consecutive losing seasons in North American professional sports (17), but they actually have a chance to put up a winning record at home for 2009. Going into this weekend, the Pirates are 36-34 at home and if they sweep the Padres in this four game series, they will be 40-34 at home with only seven more games at PNC Park almost guaranteeing them a winning home record. Third- year righthander Ross Ohlendorf will get this start for Pittsburgh, and this will likely be Ohlendorf's last start of the season as he is about 10 innings away from the maximum innings count that the Pirates have set. The Pirates will surely miss Ohlendorf once he is shut town, as he has been the horse in the rotation since the All-Star Break. In his 10 starts since the break, Ohlendorf has a 3.00 ERA and has limited opponents to a .234 batting average. Ohlendorf is 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA in two career starts against the Padres. San Diego will counter with Clayton Richard. Richard has been a pleasant surprise for the Padres since being acquired in the Jake Peavy deal. Richard actually has a start against the Pirates earlier this season when he was a member of the White Sox and it was a gem. The second-year lefthander threw six shutout innings in a 4-0 Chicago win, striking out eight while only allowing four hits.
PLAY UNDER
JR TIPS
K-State-UCLA
K-State was disappointed with last week’s narrow loss to Louisiana-Lafayette and today they are a double-digit underdog on the road at UCLA.The Wildcats got his third-straight 100-yard rushing performance out of Daniel Thomas and the Bruins’ defense will be keying on him all night. It will be tough for him to run as the K-State passing offense is completing under 60 percent of their passes. Now they will go against sophomore free safety Rahim Moore who leads the nation with five interceptions through two games although UCLA will be without a handful of players this week. Coach Rick Neuheisel recently suspended four players, including starting cornerback Courtney Viney and starting quarterback Kevin Prince is out because of a broken jaw.The Bruins are coming off an emotional win at Tennessee last week, but UCLA hopes it can avoid the letdown it experienced a year ago after beating the Volunteers when they followed up their big victory with a 59-0 loss at BYU. It will be K-State’s defensive line vs. UCLA’s offensive line as freshman quarterback Richard Brehaut is expected to make his first start with the Bruins, and K-State needs to pressure him with a pass rush but that could be difficult, considering the Wildcats have recorded one sack through two games.K-State will have to travel two time zones away for this late-starting game, and once the Wildcats get there they will face a bigger crowd and better opponent than what they’ve seen so far coming in with an unproven offense, that’s too much to overcome. KState cannot score which means eventually UCLA wil run up the score on this tired defense even with a new freshman quarterback. UCLA just have way too much talent for this Kstate team which is absolutely terrible.
TAKE UCLA-11.5
Tony Mathews
UL Monroe vs. Arizona State
Selection: Over 49.5
While the favorite has risen, the over/under number has fallen since it was released (total line opened at 57.5). That results in incredible value for us. It could be argued that the Sun Devil’s defense dominated Idaho State, however, Arizona State’s offense was just as impressive, putting up 50 points against Idaho State. Danny Sullivan, Arizona State’s new quarterback, made his debut in that game. Coming off a bye, Sullivan had plenty of opportunity to reflect on that performance and have extra prep time for this week’s game. The Sun Devils have returned four starters and the OL’s ground attack managed to rack up 199 yards and 3 TDs in their only game thus far which provided additional support for Sullivan.
In their only game against a FBS 1-A opponent so far this season, the Warhawk’s defense allowed Texas a huge 59 points. With this, we can expect UL-Monroe to give up several points to the Sun Devils, but we can also expect them to score a fair number themselves. Against Texas, the Warhawks put up a decent 20 points and in last week’s game against Southern Texas, they managed to score 58 points. Even though it’s true that the Tigers are a weak opponent, 58 points is an excellent confidence boost for Monroe‘s offense; especially for QB Trey Revell. In that matchup, Revell completed his first 12 passes and completed a total of 17 of 19 passes. In fact, Revell achieved the best completion percentage for the school in a single game in over 29 years. Revell’s performance in that game was of course heightened by the fact that Monroe returned 6 of their 7 receivers from last season.
The bottom line, we should see many points scored today!
Take UL Monroe/Arizona State Over 49.5
John Ryan
Florida State vs. BYU
Play: Florida State +8
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on FSU as they visit BYU set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows a 70% probability that FSU will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. FSU is a solid 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. BYU really put a whipping on over matched Tulane last week and held them to just 162 total yards. However, this fine performance places them into a let down role noting they are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. FSU matches up very well against BYU and this certainly could be an upset of the day type of game. Take the Seminoles for a 3* amount
Freddy Wills
Nevada vs. Colorado State
Play: Colorado State +3.5
Take Colorado as home dogs up in their own building. They are a tough team to beat in this situation at home and they'll be trying to prove their win over Buffalo was no fluke. Their run defense has been great giving up just 29 yards to Colorado and 58 to Weber State. That is a big key in this game because it fall into the strength of Nevada. If Colorado State can have a third consecutive quality game stopping the run they should win this game at home. Also Nevada's secondary is one of the worst in the nation last year and they did not show any improvements in week 1 against the Fighting Irish. Look for Col. States Rashuan Greer to have some big plays in the running game as well as a receiver. He's a playmaker and torched Weber State for 162 yards on 6 catches. This should open things up for their run game. Weakness of Colorado State has been 3rd down conversions as they are 3 of 22, but QB Grant Stucker should only improve on that today as Nevada gave up 61 plays to Notre Dame and 54 of those plays were on 1st or 2nd down.
Bob Wingerter
Wyoming vs. Colarado
Play: Wyoming +6.5
Colorado was thrashed on their home field vs. Colorado State, then thrashed on the road at Toledo. They fell behind by two touchdowns early each time, and allowed 92 points combined. The most recent stinker was nationally televised. ‘Who in their right mind?!…’However, each of those opponents had senior quarterbacks and swift, athletic receivers who overmatched Colorado’s secondary. Wyoming hasn’t had a good passing game in at least four years. They have a new coaching staff trying to get them a good passing game, but the main brains of it are from Missouri. Does Colorado know Missouri? They sure do. Missouri beat Colorado by the score of 58-0 last season. While Colorado was being forced to travel to Toledo off a short week last Friday, which opponent do you think they were preparing for? The stranger in Ohio, or the one coming to their house, still trying to learn Missouri’s offense, still auditioning players recruited by the prior regime, plus their own freshmen, led by the ex-Missouri offensive coordinator who didn’t call off the dogs against Colorado last season, on a day when Colorado plans to take the wraps off two wide receivers who are very unlike the scrawny kids that have been masquerading their way through the plays so far for the Buffs.
LT Profits
Wyoming vs. Colarado
The Colorado Buffaloes have begun the season 0-2 with upset losses to Toledo and Colorado State, and we simply do not feel they merit being favored by a touchdown vs. a capable Wyoming Cowboys team today.
Colorado has been surprisingly bad on both sides of the ball thus far, as we see no reason for that to change much today. Sure, the numbers say that they ate averaging 27.5 points offensively, but they scored just 17 points in the opener and they virtually gift-wrapped 35 points in their 54-38 thrashing at the hands of Toledo last week after going down 30-3 early in the third quarter, as the Rockets relaxed defensively and we never threatened.
Where the numbers do not lie for Colorado is on the defensive end. The Buffaloes are allowing an incredible 500.8 yards per game in their first two contests, and they have been equally awful vs. the run (5.4 yards per carry) and vs. the pass (13.2 yards per pass). Those truly dreadful numbers make the Buffs a poor bet laying points against anyone right now.
Now the Cowboys may not be world-beaters, but they did rank number 38 in the country in defense last season, and they are much better than they looked vs. Texas in a 41-10 loss last week, as there is a reason the Longhorns are the number two team in the country. Wyoming shut have an easier time shutting down this Colorado attack, and on the offensive end, they should be able to run at will on Colorado, as the Pokes are averaging 166.5 rushing yards per game.
Sire, Wyoming will not beat anyone with their passing game, but the fact that they should have success running the ball is good enough when getting a touchdown, as long time consuming drives are always good for a decided underdog. The fact that the Cowboys have the superior defense makes this play that much stronger.
Pick: Wyoming +7
Dave Price
1 Unit on UCLA -12
K-State is way down in big time rebuilding mode. UCLA is not yet ready to challenge for the Pac-10 but it is making nice strides under Rick Neuheisel. K-State looked ugly at LA Lafayette last week and it's not going to get any prettier here. UCLA's defense was huge in last week's win at Tennessee and I expect that "D" to give the Cats nothing here. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and the Bruins are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games. UCLA takes care of business by at least 2 TD's.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on LA Dodgers -140
Bottom Line: We went down with the Dodgers on the premium side last night, but I like LA to even the series this afternoon. Both Penny and Garland has been exceptional on the mound of late so with a pair of quality starters going I give the edge to LA's sticks, as the Giants are hitting just .247 and scoring only 3.6 runs/game on the road this season. The Dodgers are 24-9 at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season, 21-8 in their last 29 Saturday games, and 38-15 in their last 53 games following a loss. LA is in a battle for home field in the N.L. Playoffs and can't afford another defeat today. Take the Dodgers.
Bob Balfe
Indiana +2.5 over Akron
Indiana has been penalized more than any other team in the BIG 10 this season and they will need to be sharp today before they start BIG Ten play. The Hoosiers had a bunch of officials at this week’s practice to help them out with their mistakes. Akron has a brand new stadium and this team like other MAC teams are on the rise. Akron will be without their starting QB Chris Jacquemain and he really was the only shot they had. Indiana is not a good road team, but the Zips have not beaten a Big Ten school since 1984. Indiana will be too much to handle without Jacquemain. Take Indiana.