Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 20

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

NY Mets at Atlanta
The Mets look to follow up last night's 5-0 win in the series opener as they face an Atlanta team that is 2-12 in Mike Minor's last 14 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in the previous game. New York is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115)

Game 951-952: LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Hernandez) 14.490; Cubs (Doubront) 15.313
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 11
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+125); N/A

Game 953-954: Arizona at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Cahill) 15.147; Colorado (Butler) 14.209
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 11
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Under

Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Garza) 14.736; Pittsburgh (Volquez) 16.735
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-135); Under

Game 957-958: Washington at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 15.692; Miami (Cosart) 14.165
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-160); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-160); Over

Game 959-960: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 15.271; Atlanta (Minor) 13.908
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Over

Game 961-962: Cincinnati at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 15.274; St. Louis (Wacha) 13.477
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-185); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-185); Under

Game 963-964: San Francisco at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Petit) 14.850; San Diego (Cashner) 16.299
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-115); Over

Game 965-966: Toronto at NY Yankees (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Stroman) 15.713; NY Yankees (Capuano) 14.379
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Under

Game 967-968: Boston at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (De La Rosa) 15.400; Baltimore (Tillman) 16.966
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-180); Under

Game 969-970: Detroit at Kansas City (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.933; Kansas City (Shields) 15.405
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); Over

Game 971-972: Cleveland at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (House) 14.501; Minnesota (May) 15.672
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+115); Under

Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Noesi) 15.361; Tampa Bay (Archer) 14.148
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+155); Over

Game 975-976: Seattle at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Young) 16.740; Houston (Keuchel) 15.310
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-105); Over

Game 977-978: Texas at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 15.094; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.722
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-200); Under

Game 979-980: Philadelphia at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Williams) 14.129; Oakland (Pomeranz) 13.216
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-220); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+185); Under

Bryan Leonard

Virginia Tech -8

The Yellow Jackets enter conference play on Saturday at 3-0 on the season, but all is not well in Atlanta. A case can be made that Georgia Tech has yet to play a quality game. GT faced two teams with similar offensive styles to their own, Wofford and Georgia Southern. In each of those games the Jackets were beaten at what they do best, running the football. Wofford had a 5.8 to 5.3 ypr edge, while Georgia Southern was even more alarming at 7.4 to 4.7. That means that even though Georgia Tech faces that type of offense everyday at practice they couldn't stop it. Against Tulane the Yellow Jackets trailed by a touchdown with three minutes to go until halftime before pulling away.

Virginia Tech had a letdown last week after knocking off Ohio State on the road. East Carolina is a very well coached team that took it to the Hokies. You can bet it will be all business at practice this week in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech is very familiar with the option offense of Paul Johnson. The last five years VT has held GT to final point totals of 10, 17, 26, 21, and 28 points. Keep in mind that in those years Georgia Tech averaged 35, 34, 34, 26 and 34 points per game. So in the last five meetings Frank Beamer's crew held them to an average of 12 points less than their season average. With the Hokies now possessing a quarterback who can open the field we see Virginia Tech winning this one by a margin.

Harry Bondi

ARMY -2 over Wake Forest

Army took it on the chin last week in a tough spot when it went to Stanford and got blanked by an angry Cardinal team, 35-0. That result provides some value here today as the Cadets will bounce back against Wake Forest, which is one of the worst teams in all of college football, according to the Harry Bondi Sports power ratings. The Demon Deacons come in 1-2, but that lone win was an unimpressive 23-7 contest against Gardner Webb. True freshman QB John Wolford is in way over his head, completing just 56% of his passes with six interceptions in the first three games of his career. He isn’t getting much help from an offensive line in which seven of the top 10 on the two-deep roster are either freshman or sophomores. That means Wolford has no running game to lean on and no protection when he drops back to pass, leading to 14 sacks by the opposition this year. Demon Deacons did earn a cover last week at Utah State, but only because opposing QB Chuckie Keaton was injured and did not play in the second half. Army gets the road win.

Brad Diamond

Rutgers vs. Navy
Play: Navy -6

The Scarlet Knights are coming off a heart breaking 13-10 loss to Penn State deep in the heart of New Jersey. If you were taking 3-1/2 you came out on top. Penn State had a 7 minute advantage on the clock, while picking up 5 interceptions from Rutgers QB Nova. The Nits scored 10 fourth quarter points to pull out the victory. The Middies went on the road and blew out Texas State with 4 straight touchdowns to take a 28-0 lead in the second quarter. They averaged 6.2 yards per rush which doomed TSU. Texas State hurt themselves throughout the game with discipline issues accruing 11 penalties. Important, QB Keenan Reynolds of Navy was a late scratch, replaced by Tago Smith (202) who scored 2 touchdowns and ran for 2 scores in the 35-21 win.

In the series the home team has won 3 straight, while covering 5-of-7 ATS. After (Rutgers) dropping their initial game in the Big-10 it will be highly challenging to rebound against the Middies in Annapolis. The last meeting for the two schools came in 2012 with Rutgers winning 21-20 as three point chalk, so this sets up as a REVENGE game for Navy. The Middies have won 6 straight openers at home. Navy fields with a monster 5-0 ATS mark off back-to-back wins vs. a losing team. The visiting Scarlet Knights come into action 0-7 ATS after scoring 10 or less points, and 1-5 ATS after facing Penn State. As I mentioned this is a bad spot for Rutgers, so we’ll ride with the Middies on Saturday. Good Luck!

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Andre Ramirez

Old Dominion vs. Rice
Play: Under 61½

Today we are laying the money on the under. This game is a good example when the totals, and spreads don't match! Don't be surprised if Old Dominion pulls the outright upset! Rice is coming off 2 hard losses against real football teams. Old Dominion has cashed in 5-0 on the over when playing on the road, but the real challenge is Rice, able to put up points. Rice is 8-5 on the under when a favorite, and 3-0 on the under after 2 or more consecutive losses. According to my analysis, I have Old Dominion 27 Rice 17. Lay the money on the under, and get paid.

Andre Ramirez's Featured Package

Doug Upstone

Oregon vs. Washington State
Play: Oregon -23½

Play On favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Oregon after gaining 6.75 or more yards a play in two consecutive games, with eight offensive starters returning. How this college football system works is the Ducks have an experienced offense which can gain yards in chunks and either hit big plays for scores or wear opposing teams down by grinding out first down after first down.

In the last 21 years, this system is a remarkable 27-3 ATS, 90 percent. Another aspect to also consider is Oregon had their flat game last week against Wyoming and they should be primed to wipe out Washington State.

Red Dog Sports

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech +8

Virginia Tech should be motivated by the home loss to ECU last week and manage a way to win this game. Frank Beamer's squad is average running the ball and passing with a QB in his first full year as a Hokie. Ga Tech is well coached by Paul Johnson. Their QB has shown he can run and pass the ball. GT led 35-10 last week at the half and then fell behind 38-35 before pulling out a late win over Georiga Southern. I expect Virgina Tech to win by 4 to 7 points so take the Yellow Jackets getting 8 points.

Bill Biles

Troy vs. Georgia
Play:Georgia -41

41 points is a lot to win a game by, but in this case. Troy has lost by an average of 20 points so far this year, but they played no one close to the talent level of Georgia. I like them coming off a lose to a rival to bounce back and pound on Troy.

Sam Martin

North Carolina at East Carolina
Prediction: North Carolina

Last week East Carolina faced a Virginia Tech team that was coming off one of their biggest wins in recent memory. The Hokies shocked Ohio State on the road with an outright win against the Buckeyes. The Pirates took advantage of Virginia Tech's huge letdown spot and upset the ranked Hokies 28-21 as a big 10-point road underdog.

Now it's East Carolina that comes back home after one of their biggest wins in recent memory, and we'll fade the Pirates this Saturday as they face a monster letdown situation. North Carolina hasn't really been tested yet - beating up both Liberty and San Diego State in lopsided matchups - but we do like the matchup here considering the massive motivational situation in play. UNC also has a big revenge spot here after losing outright last year as a double-digit home favorite, and they get that revenge with an easy win and cover!

Harry Bondi

MARYLAND (pick'em) over Syracuse

We had an easy winner in the Bondi Bulletin Newsletter last week when Syracuse (-4) crushed a “popular” Central Michigan team, 40-3. But this week we’ll call for a letdown from the Orange after that big win as they take on a Maryland team that will not only be in a surly mood following last week’s crushing loss to West Virginia, but is also playing with revenge following a 20-3 loss to Syracuse last year. Terps offense is cranking and will be too much for a leaky Orange secondary.

DAVE COKIN

CLEMSON AT FLORIDA STATE
PLAY: CLEMSON +17

The early line on what is one of the big games on the Saturday slate has been adjusted. Florida State was as high as -20.5 at one point. But the announcement that Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston will be suspended for first half of the Clemson game forced the number down, and we’re now seeing -16.5 or -17 as the current tag.

Winston is definitely worth three points for one half of football on my ratings, which is about as much as any one player would be valued at. Sean Maguire was a highly regarded recruit in his own right, but he’s certainly lacking big game experience and simply isn’t as good as the amazing talented Winston.

I would be shocked if Clemson doesn’t try to confuse Maguire as much as possible and it’s my guess that the Tigers should be prepared to see a ground-oriented Seminoles attack for the first half of this game. No count the ‘Noles would love to get a big jump on this rival, but logic dictates that they’re most likely to just ask Maguire to manage the offense until Winston makes his appearance after halftime. This might indicate waiting for a first half line to appear and playing the game that way. But the oddsmakers are going to shorten the first half price, so I’m not so sure there will be any value in going that route.

There’s more than just the Winston suspension in play for me here. I am not seeing any real dominance from the Florida State defense thus far. Maybe that changes on Saturday night in Tallahassee. But right now the Seminoles appear vulnerable to the run, and they remain somewhat banged up along the defensive front as well. The Tigers have some talented RB’s and I like the chances of them having success overland in this battle.

This is not cinch by any means. I’ll freely admit that I’m worried about the Clemson mindset if they fall behind early on Saturday. The Tigers were absolutely demolished by FSU last season. But right now I’m not seeing Florida State being at the same level they were a season ago, and let’s face it, that enormous Seminoles rep is alway going to get put into the betting line. In other words, there are no bargains to be had with Florida State.

I’m banking on Clemson putting its best foot forward here and Florida State playing things safe for at least the first half. If that’s the case, i feel reasonably confident that taking 17 will be enough to get me a winner, and therefore Clemson is the choice.

River City Sharps

Oklahoma -7

This is another game where we have been watching the line moves (very curiously) since Monday morning and we’re satisfied that we just are not going to get this number any better, so we fire away. The 4th ranked Oklahoma Sooners travel to Morgantown to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers. The line on this game opened at Sooners -12.5 and currently sits between -7 to -7.5. The reaction to the open most likely comes from West Virginia’s performance in their season opener vs. Alabama, a game they lost 33-23 but were very competitive. It probably also comes from the fact that even though Oklahoma is 2-0 vs. the Mountaineers since they joined the Big 12, but WVU has covered both of those numbers. Another possible reason for the move could be the loss for Oklahoma of leading RB Keith Ford, who suffered a small fracture in his right leg this past week vs. Tennessee. All of those factors being considered, these Sharps think it’s time to jump in the pool big time and buy the Sooners at -7! While the Mountaineers appear to be better than a season ago, they still allowed Maryland to score 37 points against them last week and now face a high powered Sooner offense. Oklahoma is averaging 490 offensive yards per game while only giving up 295 YPG. Sooners QB Trevor Knight struggled last year vs. the Mountaineers, but looks much better in his second year as the leader of the Sooners offense. Even without Ford as an option, Oklahoma has tons of explosive playmakers with Samaje Perine and Alex Ross. One important note is that WVU HC Dana Holgersen has suspended sophomore CB Daryl Worley indefinitely and it now looks as though he won’t be playing vs. Oklahoma, a huge blow to the WVU secondary. We know that Morgantown will be a great atmosphere and the Mountaineers will be jacked up, but this is a scary good Oklahoma Sooners team coming to town and anything under double digits is a complete gift.

Matt Fargo

North Carolina vs. East Carolina
Play: North Carolina +2½

East Carolina came through for us last week as it was in a great scheduling situation. The Pirates were coming off a loss against South Carolina the previous week. They outgained the Gamecocks in that game but two interceptions by Shane Carden led to the 10 points that South Carolina scored in the third quarter. Take those away and the Pirates could have been in contention for the outright win. Coming into Blacksburg, the Pirates were 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games following a defeat and they added to that once again. Virginia Tech meanwhile defeated Ohio St. the previous week and it was obviously still feeling the hangover. Now East Carolina takes on another big brother and it is actually favored, more than likely based on the win last week. North Carolina is 2-0 with unimpressive wins over Liberty and San Diego St. but the Tar Heels will be a motivated bunch this week as they will be out for revenge after losing to the Pirates at home last season by 24 points. It was the first loss against East Carolina since 2007 and first non-cover since 2001 in this series. The Tar Heels are no joke this season as they have 15 starters back from a team that finished 6-1 over their last seven games following a dismal 1-5 start. North Carolina had a bye week last week so the extra time will be an added benefit. The Pirates are 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games against teams with a winning record while going 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games following consecutive non-conference games.

Matt Fargo's Featured Package

Ross Benjamin

Bowling Green at Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -27

Ordinarily my golden rule of thumb is to never lay more than 21.0 points with a college football favorite. However, there's overwhelming technical handicapping evidence supporting this selection, and it just made it too difficult to ignore. The keys to both of these systems is that the Wisconsin Badgers are coming off a week of rest, and the Bowling Green Falcons are coming off a 45-42 home win over Indiana last Saturday.

Besides the technical data, Bowling Green went from being 15th nationally in scoring defense in 2013, to allowing an average of 35.7 points, and 567.3 yards per contest in their first 3-games in 2014. That also includes a game against a FCS opponent in VMI who were able to amass 418 yards of total offense versus the Falcons defense. The Falcons will have to contend with a very potent Badgers running game that compiled a shocking 268-yards rushing versus an excellent LSU defense in their season opener. Through the first 2-games the Badgers are averaging 5.6 yards per rush, and allowing opponents a paltry 2.3 yards per rushing attempt.

Any home favorite of 21.5 to 32.5 that’s coming off a week of rest, has gone 51-14-1 ATS (78.6%) since the start of the 2005 season.

Any home favorite of 21.5 or more, versus an opponent that's coming off a straight up win in which they allowed 32-points or more, has gone 36-12 ATS (75%) since 1986. In case you’re keeping score at home, the favorite has won all 48 of these game straight up.