Tony George
Miami vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska -7.5
Two storied programs who dominated the 80” and 90’s and faced off in the 2001 Rose Bowl for the National Title square off in Lincoln Nebraska for a night game on national TV Saturday Night. The Huskers last home game was a scare from McNeese State but they bounced back nicely with a blowout road win at Fresno State, my Game of the Year Winner last week, with a 55-19 waxing of the Bulldogs as a 12 point favorite.
There are numerous keys in this game, but one thing is for sure, you will see 2 quality running backs getting the rock in this one, Duke Johnson for the Canes who has yet to live up to full potential, and all world Ameer Abdullah for Nebraska who is a Heisman hopeful. At days end a real key for NU is their aggressive defensive line and getting back All American DE Randy Gregory in this one, is a big advantage for Nebraska as Bo Pelini will send numerous blitz’s at Miami’s frosh QB Kaaya all night in passing situations. A frosh QB in only his second road start in a rare night game in Lincoln is not a positive for the Canes, who had one other night game on National TV, where Louisville pounded them 31-13 and the game was never in doubt.
Nebraska’s defense is a step down from Louisville’s overall in my opinion but better than advertised too, but it is the Husker running game and 3 headed monster with Abdullah, Cross and Newby, which is the best trifecta in the nation at running it including Georgia. Husker QB Armstrong Jr. (who is a dual threat) has 2 weapons at WR in Westerkamp and Kenny Bell, who is one of the best receivers in the Big 10 not to mention both WR’s are huge special teams threats and both already have TD’s on special teams this year. Nebraska’s ability to balance their offense is key here, and while Miami had had Florida AM and Arkansas State to warm up for this one, the Huskers at home are a big step up and are too much for the young QB and suspect defense. Al Golden will have his team ready, there are just too many mis-matches in NU’s favor here including a home field worth 4 points, and there is no love lost at Nebraska for Miami who used to pummel them in big games for years, so expect a near riot atmosphere in Lincoln Saturday Night, and I personally will be one of those fans.
Wunderdog
Miami Florida @ Nebraska
Pick: Nebraska -7.5
Both of these teams have storied programs with national titles, but neither has gotten their lately. Nebraska may be closer as they come in the ranked team at #22. The Huskers are an untested 3-0 on the season and will be ready for the Hurricanes here. Tommy Armstrong is a true duel threat QB as he is passing for 9.5 yards per attempt while connecting for seven TDs to just one INT, compared to 9/8 a year ago. His legs have similar numbers in rushing for 9.6 yards per attempt as well. Miami flunked their test vs. Louisville 31-13, and then Louisville lost to Virginia, so they might not be as good as expected. QB Brad Kaaya has been very erratic early and has already thrown five INTs this season. The Canes have been spread losers where they are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. The Huskers play big at home where they are 18-6-2 ATS when facing a team with a winning road record. The QB edge and the game go to the Huskers, so play on Nebraska.
Jeff Clement
Clemson / Florida St Under 60
The Under is 10-4 last 14 Clemson road games against teams with winning records and the Under is 5-1 last 6 Clemson games following a SU loss of 20 points or more. The Under is 4-1 last 5 Florida State games and with Jameis Winston suspended at quarterback for the 1st half the points will difficult for the Seminoles to score and Clemson QB Cole Stoudt has only 1 TD pass so far this year.
BIG AL
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
Pick: Georgia Tech
Both of these teams play in the ACC's Coastal Division. And for the first eight years of the ACC Championship Game -- from 2005 thru 2012 -- either Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech had represented the Coastal Division in the Title game. So there's definitely a rivalry between these two schools. And like a lot of rivalries, it's been a series that has gone to the dogs, as the underdog is a super 8-3 ATS. And five of the last six have been decided by a touchdown or less. It's true the Yellow Jackets have not been tested this season, with games played against Wofford, Tulane, and Georgia Southern, while Virginia Tech has already played Ohio State and East Carolina, with a win against the Buckeyes, but a loss last week vs. the Pirates. But Georgia Tech is a school which has excelled in the underdog role over the years, and especially when its opponent comes in off a loss, as it's 33-13-1 ATS since 1980 as an underdog or PK in that situation, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if Georgia Tech's win percentage is greater than .700.
DAVE COKIN
UTAH STATE AT ARKANSAS STATE
PLAY: UTAH STATE +2.5
This is a game that I really didn’t focus on until Thursday evening. My initial take was that due to the Chuckie Keeton injury it was stay away material. But upon examining this matchup more closely, I think I can build a case for the visitors.
Let’s start with Keeton. He’s out, and that means Darell Garretson is back under center for the Aggies. Garretson saw ample action last year when Keeton went down. He started slowly, but came on reasonably well as he gained experience.
Garretson is not as talented as Keeton. There’s not any question about that. But the fact is that the dynamic Keeton wasn’t playing anywhere near his prior level before getting hurt again last week. a 55% completion rate with just 4.6 YPA is not exactly sensational, and Keeton wasn’t showing the same explosion with his legs. So I’m not really sure there’s much of a downgrade here with Garretson once more inheriting the starting gig.
The other aspect of this game that has me intrigued is how Arkansas State is going to get its offense rolling against the Aggies. It’s really not an ideal catchup for the Red Wolves. Fredi Knighten is an exciting QB. But he’s definitely what I’d call a legs first signal caller. Knighten is going to run the football, and for most part he’ll feature a short passing game that is pretty low risk.
That being the case, it would seem to me there’s a decent chance that Utah State can take away what Knighten does best. The Aggies are once again proving to be very tough against the run. They can definitely be had through the air, as we saw in the loss at Tennessee. But getting chunks of yardage overland isn’t likely for Arkansas State here.
My rankings show Utah State as the better football team. It’s not by any means a blowout on those numbers, but it’s a clear edge. It’s my feeling that the line adjustment for Keeton being out is a bit too much, particularly in view of how ordinary he’d been over the first few games. So I’m looking at this as a spot where grabbing a field goal would be outstanding. Even with the spread just below that, I still see there being some value with the dog. Make it Utah State plus the points.
Freddy Wills
North Carolina vs. East Carolina
Play: North Carolina +3
We were all over East Carolina last week as our earlybird special when they had to face Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech him off a huge road victory over Ohio State 14 it was then rent and I definitely thought they were going to be in a letdown situation against an underrated East Carolina team. East Carolina is no longer underrated after they defeated Virginia Tech last week with an out right victory. So were in the same situation this week but in this scenario I'm fading East Carolina and I'm gonna back North Carolina as I feel East Carolina will have a major letdown here at home. A few things working here for North Carolina. For one they get 15 stars back from last year and they clearly remember the loss they had at home against East Carolina in a blowout 55 to 31. East Carolina is wrong and inexperienced in the secondary now they face a dual threat quarterback that can run and throw in Marquice Williams. Williams has a plenty of receivers that can get open with NFL talent such as Quinshad Davis. As impressive as ease Carolinas effort was last week against Virginia Tech they did get outscored 21-7 through three quarters after exploding with the 21-0 lead start again. At the end of the day North Carolina also has an extra week to prepare for this game and they are motivated based on last years result and they won't be taking this team lightly.
Scott Spreitzer
Iowa vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Iowa +7
We went against the Hawkeyes last weekend on these pages, but we'll come back with the Kirk Ferentz-led squad this week. It's a bit of a homecoming for Ferentz and his Hawkeyes will face what I believe is a Pitt team that's a tad overrated. The Panthers' passing game leaves a lot to be desired, ranked 123rd in the nation, and they rely too much on RB James Conner. This will play right into Iowa's defensive strengths. The Hawkeyes allow just over 65 yards rushing per game and they have garnered 19 TFL's through their first three games of the season. This marks the toughest defense the one-dimensional Pitt offense will have faced through their first four games. The Iowa offense, led by experienced signal caller Jake Rudock should get enough help from their defense to keep this one close to the final gun. Iowa enters on a 38-18-1 ATS run off a SU loss and they're on a 6-0 ATS run on the road. I'm taking the points with Iowa on Saturday.
MMA OddsBreaker
Parlay: Tate & Kunimoto
Kiichi Kunimoto looked incredible in his last bout, taking on Ultimate Fighter Brazil finalist Daniel Sarafian in hostile territory. Not only did Kunimoto win, but he finished the much-hyped Brazilian. Kunimoto has incredible grappling skills and we're big believers in his ability to dominate opponents once he gets them to the canvas. That shouldn't be a problem againts Richard Walsh, an Australian fighter with limited ground ability. If Kunimoto gets this fight to the floor, it's over.
We're going to parlay Kunimoto with Miesha Tate. Tate is a former Strikeforce women's bantamweight champion and is currently ranked the #2 women's bantamweight in the world. The talented veteran is coming off a close decision victory over former title challenger Liz Carmouche and, like Kunimoto, she's taking on an opponent who's a step down in competition level compared to her previous one. We expect Tate to perform very well against Japanese fighter Rin Nakai due to her significant size, reach, striking and submission advantages.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Alabama/Florida Under 51: I know the point total of SEC games has gone up the last couple of year, but this one looks like an old school defensive game. Well it may not be close, but there will still be enough defense in the game to keep it under the total. The Crimson Tide had their issues on defense in the first game of the year vs West Virginia, but the Mountaineers also run the kind of uptempo offense that gives the Tide fits. The Gators do not have that kind of offense, which will allow the Tide to substitute their defense properly. On the other side we have a Florida defense that is one of the better in the nation. They did allow 30 points to Kentucky, but that was also in triple OT. The Tide offense is good, but is also still young and hasn't really been tested yet. Well the will today. Florida will take away that run game and make Sims beat them. Eventually he will, but he won't put enough points on the board for this game to go over the total. I see this one as being a 31-10 type game.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
BOISE STATE -17 over UL Lafayette: UL Lafayette has had three 9-4 seasons in a row, but I don't see them getting their fourth on this year. The Ragin Cajuns started off with a 45-6 win over an FCS squad, but vs their 2 FBS teams they have been outscored 104-35 and have been outgained by 175 ypg in the two games. Now they head to the high altitude and chilly Blue Turf of the Boise State Broncos. The Broncos come in off a 38-21 win at UConn last week, but they only gained 292 yards in the game and that should change here vs a Lafayette defense that has allowed 455 ypg and 36.7 ppg on the year so far. That is not good when your about to face a Boise offense that has scored 46 ppg in their last 8 games on this field. Earlier this year the did beat CSU by just 13 on this field, but also outgained them by 214 yards in the contest. The Broncos always have a solid defense, especially on this field and Lafayette has shown that they will struggle vs good defense. Let's also note that Boise HC Harsin was at Arkansas State last year and lost to Lafayette by a 23-7 score, so there is some revenge there as well. The altitude and the powerful Boise ground attack will wear the Ragin Cajuns down on their way to a win of at least 24 points. Power Angle For This Play: Boise State is 18-4 ATS off a SU win vs a sub .500 team that is off BB SU losses
BEST OF THE REST
COLORADO -8 Over Hawaii: Hawaii really played well in their first two games vs Washington and Oregon State, but both those games were at home and this one will be on the mainland, where the Rainbow Warriors always struggle. This game will really be tough for them as it will be played at 9 am Hawaii time. The Buffaloes are 1-2 on the year and they did struggle in their lone win, which was vs UMass on the road. The Buffaloes are an improved team this year and last week they really show some improvement by thoroughly outplaying the Arizona State Sun Devils, even though they lost by 14. While the Buffaloes were facing Arizona State and playing well vs them, Hawaii was playing at home and nearly losing to FCS foe Northern Iowa. Hawaii will be without their top RB Joey Iiosefa, while we note that the Buffaloes are 12-2 ATS at home vs sub .400 opponents. Too much for the Rainbow Warriors to overcome here.
Wyoming/FAU Under 47: I will be going win the Under here. Wyoming played a higher scoring game last night, but that was due to the fact that they were facing the Oregon Ducks. The Wyoming offense is very bad and have yet to score more than 17 points in any game. Other than allowing 48 points to the Ducks, they have allowed just 13 and 12 points in their other two games and FAU is not really an offensive team. Yes they put up 50 points on Tulsa, but they have a sad defense, while the Cowboys do not. The FAU defense did struggle on the road vs Alabama and Nebraska, but that can be expected. Their defense will be solid this year and they do have 6 starters back from a group that allowed 22 ppg last year and they did allow just 20 points vs a decent Tulsa Offense. This is not even a good offense that they will face today. Both teams play a slow paced type of game and both have solid defenses, and that will keep the scoring in the upper 30s at best in this one.
Texas State +13 over ILLINOIS: Illinois is an improved team but this Bobcat team is well coached and can play with the mid-level FBS teams. The Illini do have a solid offense, especially with Wes Lunt at QB, but their defense is still bad and I feel that will allow the Bobcats to keep this one close. Texas State has put up 43 ppg so far this year and this offense was expected to be explosive as they have 8 starters back from last year’s team. The defense only has 4 starters back but they have recruited well on that side of the ball and should be better than last year’s group. The Illinois defense is not very good as they come in allowing 414 ypg and 31.7 ppg and will have a tough time stopping the Bobcat offense in this one. The Illini are 1-9 ATS at home after allowing 35 points in their last game and they are in a tough sandwich spot here, coming off a road game vs Washington and they have a road game vs Nebraska on deck. For the Bobcats, we note that HC Franchione is 12-3 ATS in his last 15 games as a DD non-conference dog. Illinois may win, but by no more than a TD.
Nebraska/Miami Under 55: This OU line really seems too high for a couple of teams that have solid defenses and run the ball a bit more than they throw it. The Cans will look to pound the ball with Duke Johnson, while the Cornhuskers will turn to Ameer Abdullah to lead their ground attack that has put up 324 ypg so far this year. The Miami defense has been very good in the early going, as they have allowed just 259.7 ypg thus far, including 82.7 ypg on the ground. The Nebraska defense has also been very tough this year as they come in allowing just 294.7 ypg and just 4.1 yards per play so far. Both of these defenses are very solid and that along with plenty of rushing should keep this game in the mid 40’s at best.
Tony Stoffo
Utah St vs. Arkansas St
Play: Over 49
Odds makers posted a real low total here going off the fact that Utah State is known for their defense allowing just 15 points per game last 2 seasons - however this year is a different story with the Aggies allowing 27 points a game against average at best offenses so far this season. Now they have to face a Arkansas State squad that likes to run a fast paced offense. So as you can see this sure sets up as a higher than normal scoring affair leading to a great value play on the over.
Greg Shaker
Utah St. / Arkansas St. Over 49
This game is way off the opening number of 54 and it's now time to get on board at the very key 49. It is down on the news of the Utah State QB Keeton but his backup is Garretson is plenty capable, looked great last week when he came into the game, and has a lot of experience. Simply an over-reaction here for bettors with these two teams that will display plenty of pace in this match-up in Jonesboro. We have 54.8 as our number and so the line move downward actually gives us this chance to profit at a high percentage.
Michael Alexander
Miami Florida vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska -7.5
Nebraska has really been kind to their backers so far this year as they have had 26 and 24 pt covers (110-26 point edge in lined games), behind Armstrong and Abdullah). Miami got 342 passing yards from QB Kaaya last week, while Dorsett had 201 receiving yards. But they are going to need the big play if they are to stay in this game.
Marc Lawrence
Rutgers vs. Navy
Play: Rutgers
Edges - Knights: 29-12 SU versus military teams, including 12-7 ATS away and 4-1 SU in this series. Midshipmen: 2-8 SU versus Big 10 opponents; and 4-11-1 ATS home openers. Noting that road teams in Game Four, playing with a week of rest off their first loss of the season, are a long-term 105-83-1 ATS winning proposition, and with Navy QB Keenan Reynolds playing on a wobbly knee, we recommend a 1-unit play on Rutgers.
Doug Upstone
Oregon vs. Washington State
Play: Oregon -23½
Play On favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Oregon after gaining 6.75 or more yards a play in two consecutive games, with eight offensive starters returning. How this college football system works is the Ducks have an experienced offense which can gain yards in chunks and either hit big plays for scores or wear opposing teams down by grinding out first down after first down. In the last 21 years, this system is a remarkable 27-3 ATS, 90 percent. Another aspect to also consider is Oregon had their flat game last week against Wyoming and they should be primed to wipe out Washington State.
Joe Gavazzi
South Carolina -22
In my lead article this week, “Using the AFP as Contrary Indicator,” I use the example of last week’s loser on Texas A&M in this very spot as STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK. After Arizona and Army rolled to easy victories for us in this column, we got valued out when I tried to push the Aggies to cover an inflated impost. As I said, “my bad!” Today, I isolate a selection using a team who steps way down in the level of competition against one of the nation’s programs who is in steepest decline. Every season there are college football teams who completely fall off the radar screen. Perhaps it is the lack of returning starters, maybe it is key injuries at skill position spots, cluster injuries to a particular position, or a coaching change. In the case of Vandy, there are multiple reasons for the decline of this program. In the 3 year regime of former HC Franklin (now Penn St.), the Coms recorded a 24-15 SU, 23-13 ATS mark. That included 9 victories in each of the previous two seasons, highlighted by a pair of Bowl wins. In his 3 seasons at the helm, Franklin fielded teams that featured 19, 16, and 14 RS. When Franklin left for Penn St., he was replaced by Derrick Mason, who was the DC at Stanford for the previous 4 seasons. He was joined by former UCLA HC Dorrell as his OC and QB Coach. With a change at the signal caller spot and only 10 RS, the results have been disastrous in Vandy’s first 3 games. They are 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, failing to cover the number by 79 points. This has included a 37-7 loss to Temple, 41-3 loss to Ole Miss, followed by last week’s 34-31 home victory vs. UMass. This was a game in which Vandy trailed the lightly regarded Minutemen (31-20). It was also a game that saw the Coms get out-statted 347-310. For the season, Vandy is being outscored by an average of 36-15 with an offense averaging just 252 YPG on 4.3 YP play. Today, they face an angry S. Carolina team who has much to prove, despite the 38-35 home victory against rival Georgia. The Gamecocks have faced one of the most rigorous schedules in the nation. It has featured offensive powerhouses such as Texas A&M, E. Carolina, and Georgia. They have allowed an embarrassing 37 PPG and 514 YPG. This, from a team who has long prided themselves on the defensive side of the ball! For example, in the previous 3 combined seasons, S. Carolina has allowed just 19 PPG and 311 YPG. Along with balanced offensive success, the Gamecocks recorded a trio of 11 win seasons. Much the same is expected this year. 10th year HC Spurrier well realizes, if another double digit season is to become a reality, that a huge confidence building win is essential against such an outmanned foe. No over confidence for S. Carolina in this spot, as in the two previous seasons, the Gamecocks recorded hard fought victories of 17-13 (2012) and 35-25 (in 2013), despite a 579-268 yardage edge in that game. In a rather under the radar, for this bureau, STEAMROLLER selection, I like the Gamecocks to get a much needed confidence building win and continue Vandy in the downward spiral that has not as yet seen the Commodores reach the nadir of their discontent.