EZWINNERS
Rice Owls -6.5
Rice comes into this game at 0-2 having lost on the road to Notre Dame and Texas A&M, but I like them to get on track in this game against ODU. Rice won ten games last season and is the defending Conference USA champion. Old Dominion is playing their first conference game as a member of the FBS. ODU enters this game at 2-1, but their two wins are against FCS Hampton and a very bad Eastern Michigan team. The Monarchs do have some weapons on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense I don't believe will be up to the task. The Owls were able to move the chains and roll up 240 rushing yards against the Aggies defense last week and I expect them to be able to run at will against ODU. This is a big game for the Owls who look to get off to a good start and establish themselves as the team to beat once again in Conference USA. The Owls are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games as a home favorite and I look for that success to continue. Lay the points.
Mississippi State Bulldogs +9
LSU has owned this series against Mississippi State, but I like the Bulldogs in this match up. LSU lost a lot of talent at the skill positions from last years team. The Tigers have a talented duo of freshmen running backs with Leonard Fournette and Darrel Williams, but new starting quarterback sophomore Anthony Jennings is only completing just over 50% of his passes. Mississippi State is a veteran team that returns 57 lettermen which is the third highest total in the country. I expect the Bulldogs defense to be able to hold this young LSU offense in check. On the offensive side of the ball the Bulldogs have a dynamic quarterback in Zak Prescott who is a threat to both pass and run and he should have success putting points on the board for MSU. LSU’s vaunted home field advantage is a myth as the Tigers are only 25-38-2 laying points at home since 2004. The Bulldogs have covered the spread in five out of their last six road games dating back to last season and I expect them to be in this one until the end. Take the points.
Houston Cougars -21.5
The Cougars will have their chance to even their record and get rolling before conference play starts next week as UNLV comes to town. UNLV had a great year last season, but things look to be back to normal this year as they have given up 106 points in their two losses against Arizona and Northern Illinois and escaped with a 13-12 home win over a very bad Northern Colorado team from the Big Sky conference. The Cougars have way to many weapons for the Rebels to handle on the offensive side of the ball and the fast pace of the Cougar's offense will be too much for a struggling UNLV defensive unit. Houston led the nation with 43 take always last season and they already have nine in three games this year. The Cougar defense should be able to get a couple more against UNLV quarterback Blake Decker who already has thrown five picks this season. The Rebels are just 1-9 against the spread in their last ten non conference road games. Lay the points.
Rob Vinciletti
Bowling Green vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -27
The Badgers are rested and ready and should roll Bowling Green like wholesale carpet today. Home favorites of more than 21 off a bye week are 55-18 ats. The Badgers have won and cover all 3 in the series and are a solid 7-0 at vs a team that has complete more than 62% of their passes the last 3 years. Road dogs of more than 17 off a home dog win where they scored 31 or more and allowed 21 or more have failed to cover 35 of the last 51. Bowling Green allowed 59 points in their first road game to a Western Kentucky team that is nothing compared to the size and speed they will see here in Wisconsin today. Look for the Badgers to get the win and cover.
Jack Jones
Miami +8
Nebraska (3-0) has had a scare already this season with a 31-24 win over FCS foe McNeese State. However, it has taken care of business in its other two games, beating Florida Atlantic 55-7 in its opener and Fresno State 55-19 on the road last week.
Miami (2-1) got off to a shaky start to the season with a 13-31 road loss at Louisville. It has since rebounded with back-to-back blowout home victories over Florida A&M (41-7) and Arkansas State (41-20).
Both of these teams have had one poor performance this season apiece. I am a lot more worried about Nebraska’s last-minute home win over McNeese State than I am about Miami’s 18-point road loss to Louisville. Obviously, the Big Ten is down this season, and I don’t believe the Huskers are even close to the class of that conference.
We already saw one ACC team go on the road and upset what was supposed to be the best team in the Big Ten. Virginia Tech went into Ohio State and came away with a 35-21 victory despite being a 10-point underdog. I believe Miami is fully capable of going into Nebraska and pulling off the upset, but it just needs to stay within 8 points to cover the spread, which I expect it to do.
Miami hasn’t even lived up to its potential yet because it has shot itself in the foot with turnovers over the first three games. Indeed, it has already committed eight turnovers to this point. Freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya has now been able to get his feet wet and bounce back from a tough outing at Louisville. He is completing 60.0% of his passes for 693 yards with seven touchdowns and five picks. He should not be intimidated now that we are four weeks into the season.
Duke Johnson has rushed for 277 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 6.4 yards per carry. This guy was on pace for nearly 2,000 yards last year before getting hurt after seven starts. I believe this Nebraska defense is susceptible to the run. After all, the Huskers gave up 178 rushing yards to McNeese State, so Johnson should have his way all game.
Nebraska is a team that relies heavily on its rushing attack. It is rushing for 324 yards per game, but keep in mind that it has faced three awful defenses. Miami's biggest strength is its run defense, which is only allowing 83 yards per game and 2.0 per carry. I just really believe this is a great match-up for the Hurricanes because of their ability to stop the run.
Miami is 8-0 ATS off a win by 17 points or more over the last three seasons. The Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS after playing a non-conference game over the last three seasons. Nebraska is 25-54-2 ATS in its last 81 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. The Huskers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
Kyle Hunter
California vs. Arizona
Play: Over 69½
The Cal Golden Bears run a unique offense under Coach Sonny Dykes. Cal had a freshman quarterback in Jared Goff last year, and for a freshman he played well. Goff is that much better this year, and I expect Cal to be able to score on just about everyone they play this season. Arizona's offense is very good with talented freshmen Anu Solomon and Nick Wilson starring already. Rich Rodriguez's team is going to be able to move the ball early and often on a weak Cal defense. A big bonus here is that both teams play extremely fast. There are going to be a ton of offensive plays in this game, which makes this total easy attainable. It's a high total, but it's high for a reason. Take the over.
Jim Feist
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals -118
Detroit ace Max Scherzer has been ordinary on the road with a 6-4 record and a 3.70 ERA. He faces a Kansas City team that has pounded him this year, with a 5.30 ERA against them in 18 innings, allowing 21 his, 6 walks. Kansas City has plenty of offense and motivation, battling for a division title. The Royals have an ace of their own in James Shields (14-7), with the team 7-2 his last nine starts. The Royals are 27-9 in Shields' last 36 starts with 4 days of rest. The Royals are 38-17 in Shields' last 55 starts, including 15-6 against a team with a winning record.
Jimmy Boyd
North Carolina Tar Heels +3
We are seeing a huge over-reaction by the books in this one, as North Carolina would have almost certainly been favored here or at least a pick'em if it wasn't for East Carolina coming off that huge upset win on the road over Virginia Tech. As impressive as that win was for the Pirates, they caught the Hokies in a perfect spot off that huge win at Ohio State. It was a clear letdown spot for Virginia Tech and now I'm expecting to see the same thing happen this week with East Carolina suffering a letdown.
Not only are the Pirates off a huge game against the Hokies, but they went up against SEC foe South Carolina the week prior. They played the Gamecocks closer than expected and I just don't think they will have enough left in the tank against what is going to be a motivated and well rested Tar Heels team.
North Carolina will be coming into this game off a bye, plus they will be out for revenge after getting embarrassed at home last year by East Carolina 31-55 as a 12-point favorite. That contest came early in the year during the Tar Heels 1-5 start and before quarterback Marquise Williams took over. Williams helped turn North Carolina's season around, as the Tar Heels closed out 5-1 to make a bowl.
Covering against quality opponents isn't exactly something the Pirates have exceeded at in the past, as they are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record. East Carolina is also just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games after playing two straight non-conference games. That's a 81% (26-6) system in favor of the Tar Heels.
Oliver Alonso
Iowa vs. Pittsburgh
Play:Pittsburgh -6½
It has been a tough start for the Big Ten this season and Iowa shared in the league’s disappointment last weekend with a 20-17 loss to intra-state rival Iowa State. The loss puts Iowa’s record at 2-1 on the year. This weekend the Hawkeyes travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Panthers at Heinz Field. Pitt is 3-0 on the young season after defeating FIU 42-25. Pittsburgh’s potent offense is putting up an average of about 45 points per game and is 5th in the country in rushing, averaging 344 yards on the ground per contest. Pitt is led by James Conner who has already amassed 544 yards on the ground this season. Compare that to the Hawkeye’s top rusher, Mark Weisman who only has 96 total yards rushing.
Iowa’s quarterback Jake Rudock has had success in the air, hitting on 80 of 117 passes for a total of 718 yards. Rudock is also the team’s second-leading rusher with a total of 92 yards. The Hawkeye’s will be looking to rebound against that last-second loss to Iowa State but to do so they will need to stop Conner. It’s the Big Ten vs the ACC with a noon kick-off on Saturday afternoon.
Guess we should be sending thank you flowers to the Big Ten offices as we have made so much money betting against the over-rated Big Ten this year. Why stop betting against the Big Ten here, an average Iowa team away from home for first time this year. Hawkeyes have been abysmal on offense this year averaging just 21.7 ppg. Not sure Iowa even gets their average as Pitt is a very talented defense. Panthers offense will wear down Iowa and late in this game Pitt offense does whatever they want in easy win for ACC.
Nelly
Massachusetts + over Penn State
With Penn State's bowl ban lifted the Big Ten finally received some positive news in what has been a tough first three weeks of the season for the conference. While Penn State is one of two prominent programs left in the conference still without a loss, the performances this season have not exactly been complete efforts. Penn State was sloppy in the win over UCF in Ireland as they needed a miracle comeback despite dominating the statistics. The Lions also survived three turnovers in the win over Akron while barely holding on last week with a big turnover edge. Christian Hackenberg has NFL potential as perhaps the face of the Big Ten but he has been erratic and he shows his inexperience frequently. This is an easy game for Penn State to overlook, sandwiched in between two conference games. The Minutemen have actually been very competitive in three games vs. major conference foes this season. Penn State is likely the best of those opponents so far but it won't be a huge leap in class. A big conference game with Northwestern is up next for the Lions and while this line has dropped below four touchdowns with movement throughout the week the ugly underdog is still worth a shot.
ASA
Army vs Wake Forest
Play: Army
We love looking for strong rushing teams vs. weak ones. Teams that can run the ball well can really wear down the opposing defense in the 2nd half which is demoralizing. That was the case last week when we had Arkansas as our Top Game over Texas Tech. Tech couldn’t run and couldn’t stop Arky and the Razors rolled. The Cadets love to run the ball. They are averaging 270 YPG on the ground after 2 games. That includes rushing for 198 yards last week against a very good Stanford defense. WF can’t run at all. In their two games against non-FCS they ran the ball 27 times for negative 3 yards against UL Monroe and 24 times for negative 25 yards against Utah St. Thus, 51 carries for -27 yards rushing. Brutally bad. That puts a big load on their true freshman QB, Wolford which isn’t a good situation. Army is the side here.
Larry Ness
UNLV vs. Houston
Pick: Over
Houston is home for the third time in its first four games of the 2014 season, as the Cougars find themselves matched up against the UNLV Rebels in non-conference action at the new TDECU Stadium. The Cougars opened with an ‘ugly’ home loss to Texas-San Antonio (27-7) before thumping Grambling State (47-0). Last week, Houston visited No. 25 BYU in Provo on a Thursday night and while losing 33-25 at LaVell Edwards Stadium, easily covered as a 17-point underdog. As for the Rebels, who are embarking on a three-game road trip that will keep them away from Sin City until they host Fresno State on October 10, they too are 1-2 after three games. However, the lone win for UNLV was a narrow 13-12 decision vs Northern Colorado on September 6 (Rebels were four-TD favorites!). Meanwhile, the two losses were 58-13 at Arizona and 48-34 at home to visiting Northern Illinois.
I’m not going to over-think this and just go by “the numbers.” UNLV lost its first 21 road games under head coach Bobby Hauck, allowing 43.5 PPG. The road losing streak ended with a 56-42 win last year at New Mexico and then the Rebels, after losing 38-14 at Fresno, won at Nevada and Air Force to finish the regular season. UNLV earned its first bowl bid since 2000 in 2013 but played North Texas in the Heart of Dallas Bowl and lost 36-14. UNLV opened its season allowing 58 points and 787 yards at Arizona and has now lost all 10 non-MWC road games under Hauck, allowing a whopping 49.5 PPG.
Assuming the Rebels can score a little in this one, how doesn’t this game ‘fly’ over?
SPORTS WAGERS
Hull City +165 over NEWCASTLE UNITED
Newcastle United manager Alan Pardew is coaching for his job this weekend, if media reports are to be believed. After a dismal run of results, the Tynesiders are rooted to the foot of the table and anything other than a win could see the former West Ham boss dismissed after nearly four years in charge.
The numbers suggest a miserable Saturday for Pardew. Newcastle have lost eight of their last 12 home games (3-8-1) and scored fewer Premier League goals (17) than any other side permanently in the division this year. Visitors Hull have scored in all four league games so far this season and won on four of their last five visits to St James's Park (all competitions). Hull's away scoring form is impressive, too, as they've found the net at least once in eight of their last nine away games in the Premier. Taking all factors into account, the chances of Hull avoiding defeat seem reasonable. By backing the visitors on the Asian handicap, you'll make a profit if Hull wins or you’ll get your stake back if the game ends in a draw.
Sleepyj
Army -2.5
Army has a good team this year. They may actually win themselves around 6 games. I liked what i saw against both Buffalo and Stanford. Army QB only throws the ball a few times. He is 8-8 109 0td's..They will run like crazy though. They did hold Stanford to 35 points. They get to face Wake Forest in this one. Wake is not that good. They lost 2 games Vs. bad teams. They beat up on Gard Webb. I really think they have a tough time here. You will get the best effort here from Army today. Wake just has holes all over and stopping this run from Army will be problematic for the Deacons. Wake Forest can't run..I really mean that..they have rush for 55 yards combined in 3 games. 2 of those games a -10 yard game and the other -25 yard game. You do the math. They now face a team that can play the run very well. I'd be shocked if Wake gained 60 yards in this one..Shocked!..Wake throws a ton. They need to. Army Vs. the pass this year did ok. They faced two teams in Buffalo and Stanford. Both of those teams can throw better than Wake.So Army has been tested there. I think Wake is just a bad team and Army has some good things working for them.
Bruce Marshall
Miami Florida at Nebraska
Pick: Nebraska
Miami has not been having much success lately agaisnt the spread, dropping 9 of its last 11 vs. the number even after last week's win over Arkansas State. With a true frosh QB at the controls, the always-difficult assignment in Lincoln becomes even tougher. Tommy Armstrong Jr.'s maturity at QB is giving Bo Pelini's offense somee xtra bite.
Jesse Schule
Clemson at Florida State
Pick: Clemson
By now we've all heard the news that Jameis Winston will miss this Saturday's game versus Clemson, but I liked the underdog even before hearing of the news. Florida State has not impressed in it's first two games of the season, and Clemson on the other hand is still flying under the radar. The Tigers lost their season opener at Georgia, but the final score of 45-21 doesn't really give us an indication of how close the game actually was. Clemson actually led 21-14 in the second quarter of that game, but went on to allow 31 unanswered points. Cole Stoudt had a rough game, throwing an INT and getting sacked four times. It doesn't exactly get easier against a tough FSU defense, but Stoudt has a little more experience under his belt after throwing for 302 yards and a TD in a rout of South Carolina State. That's more than can be said for Sean Maguire, who will be thrown into the fire here with Winston on the bench. He saw action in nine games last year, totaling just 116 yards with a pair of TDs and a pair of INTs. He's facing a solid defense of Clemson that has seven starters back from last season, including All American DE Vic Beasley. Even with the adjusted line, I think the Seminoles are being asked to cover too many points against a quality opponent.
Carolina Sports
Tulane vs. Duke
Play: Duke -17
Duke comes into this game 3-0 with three impressive wins over sub-par competition (Elon. Troy, Kansas). The offense is clicking averaging 42.3--ppg but surprising only averaging 6.4-ypp. The defense have been solid only allowing 11.0-ppg and 4.6-ypp. We don't see Tulane's offense scoring a ton of points in this game against an underrated Blue Devil defense.
Tulane is 1-2 this season with their only win against FCS SE Louisiana. Tulane is only averaging 5.9-ypp vs teams that allow 6.5-ypp. Tulane will have to score in order to have any chance to win this game and we just don't see that happening. The defense has been solid this season allowing 5.4-ypp but those numbers are skewed a bit with the win over SE Louisiana who is not very goo (allowed 3.8-ypp in that game).
Tulane is over-matched in this one. Green Wave are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on grass. Green Wave are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. ACC. Tulane has been awful against quality offensive teams as they 3-21 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=450 yards/game since 1992.
Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Duke has been great in the role as favorites as they are 10-2 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Our ratings have Duke -18.5 and computer is calling for a 19 point Duke win. Duke gets it done in this one.