Hollywood Sports
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
Prediction: Over
Georgia Tech (3-0) rolled up 536 yards of offense behind their spread triple option -- including 348 yards on the ground -- en route to their 42-38 win over Georgia Southern last Saturday. The Yellow Jackets have then played 7 straight games Over the Total after wracking up at least 450 yards of offense in their last game. But the concern for Paul Johnson's defense has to be their defense that surrendered 528 yards last week. Now Georgia Tech goes on the road where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total. Virginia Tech (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 28-21 loss to East Carolina despite being a 9.5-point favorite which appears to be a result of the lingering hangover from their upset win on the road against Ohio State two weeks ago.
The Hokies' defense surrendered 502 yards to the Pirates -- and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 500 yards in their last game. Additionally, Virginia Tech has played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Take the Over in this one.
Dr Bob
MICHIGAN STATE (-45) 52 Eastern Michigan 3
If Michigan State wants to win this game 56-0 they probably can. My ratings, adjusted for the likelihood of more running by MSU and lots of time for the backups still favors the Spartans by 49 ½ points. Even if Michigan State spends the entire 2nd half handing the ball off they’re still likely to score points given that Eastern Michigan has allowed 6.4 yards per rushing play this season.
WISCONSIN (-27) 47 Bowling Green 17
The line on this game opened at 21 ½ points and the line move was certainly justified. My ratings favor Wisconsin by 26 ½ points, so the current line is fair, and the Badgers should be ready to play after having last week off. Non-conference home favorites of more than 20 points are 70-33 ATS following a bye week, which is enough to still have me leaning with the Badgers despite the huge line move.
GEORGIA (-41) 53 Troy 7
While many may think that Georgia could suffer a letdown here as a big favorite after last week’s disappointing upset loss at South Carolina, history says otherwise. Letdowns like that generally happen later in the season and when a team loses early in the year they tend to be focused regardless of the opponent. In fact, teams that lose straight up as a favorite of more than 2 points in game 2 are 24-2 ATS as a favorite of 21 points in game 3, including 3-0 last week with Stanford (who had just lost a heart breaker to USC), Ohio State (who had just lost to Virginia Tech), and Washington State. My ratings favor Georgia by 45 points, so the line is more than fair. I like Georgia to take out their frustrations on Troy today.
BYU (-14½) 32 Virginia 16
Virginia has a good defense, one that has yielded just 4.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit. However, BYU has an equally good defense (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl) and a much better offense. The Cougars have averaged 5.9 yppl in 3 games against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack while the Cavaliers have managed just 4.7 yppl against teams that would yield 5.4 yppl). My math favors BYU by 16 points so the line move down to 14 ½ points appears to be unjustified.
ALABAMA (-14) 32 Florida 18
I wish I could recommend a play on this game, but it’s a tough game to pick. Alabama is coming off a couple of easy wins over bad teams Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss and the Crimson Tide struggled in their opener against West Virginia (a 33-23 win). The Tide defense gave up 6.1 yards per play to the Mountaineers and the 4.9 yppl that they’ve allowed in 3 games is not up to normal standards. However, Florida doesn’t appear to be well equipped to take advantage of a relatively soft Alabama secondary, as Gators’ quarterback Jeff Driskel has averaged only 6.0 yards per pass play against two teams that would combine to allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback. Driskel wasn’t particularly good last year before getting hurt so Florida has to hope for success running the ball, which is not easy to do against Alabama (they’ve allowed just 3.9 yards per rushing play). Alabama’s offense has been more up tempo with Lane Kiffin as the new offensive coordinator and the Tide have performed well offensively, averaging 42 points on 568 yards at 7.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack. Florida’s defense didn’t play that well last week against Kentucky, allowing 5.8 yppl, but the Gators are a very good defensive team that should be able to slow down the Alabama attack. My ratings favor Alabama by 17 points in this game but Florida applies to a 138-76-6 ATS statistical profile indicator that plays on underdogs that are very good defending the run. That angle will keep me from leaning with the Tide. I’ll pass.
MISSOURI (-13 ½) 42 Indiana 28
Indiana hasn’t looked very good on the scoreboard so far, as the Hoosiers have lost to the spread by double-digits in each of their two games, a 28-10 win as a 33 point favorite against Indiana State and a 3 point loss as an 8 point favorite at Bowling Green. However, those results are misleading and I think the Hoosiers are an improved team this season with a defense that’s allowed just 4.4 yards per play in those games to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team. The Indiana offense was great last season and looks pretty potent again this year based on their 574 yards per game at 7.0 yards per play, so overall I like how the Hoosiers have played and eventually it will start to show up on the scoreboard. However, this may not be that game given that Missouri is good on both sides of the ball, rating at 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and 0.7 yppl better than average defensively so far this season, and the Tigers apply to a very good 73-20-2 ATS momentum situation today. My ratings only favor Missouri by 12 points and using this year’s stats only would favor the Tigers by just 9 points. However, the situation favoring Missouri is strong enough to cancel out the line value favoring Indiana. I’ll pass.
LSU (-9) 27 Mississippi State 20
If I was only using this year’s stats without adjusting for variance I’d get LSU by 17 ½ points in this game. However, Mississippi State had one random game against UAB where they gave up 3 long pass plays in their 47-34 win over the Blazers. Mississippi State has allowed 14.6 yards per completion, which is significantly higher than the 11.0 ypc that they are projected to allow or the national average of 12.0 ypc. The Bulldogs’ pass defense has performed as projected in their other two games (allowing just 4.2 yards per pass play), which is further evidence that the UAB game (11.6 yppp allowed) was a fluke. LSU’s offense, meanwhile, has averaged an unsustainable 20.1 yards per catch and that has made the passing numbers of quarterback Anthony Jennings look much better than he is. Jennings has completed only 51.9% of his passes, which is more indicative of his future performance than his 9.3 yards per pass play average that has been skewed by a few long completions. LSU’s offense is designed to create big pass plays but the highest yards per catch average they’ve had in recent years is 15.5 ypc and I’ll assume that number going forward. After adjusting for variance I still project 7.6 yards per pass play for LSU in this game but only 3.8 yards per rushing play for a Tigers’ ground game that has been worse than average so far with just 4.9 yards per rushing play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yprp to an average team. Mississippi State defends the run very well (3.3 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.2 yprp), so Jennings is going to have to be more accurate for LSU to sustain drives in this game – or he’ll have to hit on a couple of big pass plays, which certainly is a possibility.
The LSU defense appears to be the best unit on the field, as the Tigers have yielded just 3.6 yards per play this season to a trio of opponents that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit. Mississippi State will provide a challenge for the Tigers and the Bulldogs could have good success with their strong rushing attack (281 yards at 6.2 yprp) against an LSU defense that allowed 7.1 yprp to Wisconsin’s strong ground attack in their season opener. Throwing against the Tigers is a real challenge (they’ve allowed just 2.5 yppp) but Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott is has put up good numbers and could have some success through the air.
Overall, my ratings favor LSU by 9 ½ points, so the line is fair, but Mississippi State applies to a solid 138-76-6 ATS statistical profile indicator that plays on underdogs that are very good at defending the run. I’ll lean with the Bulldogs plus the points.
Oklahoma (-7 ½) 38 WEST VIRGINIA 28
While I do agree that West Virginia is a good team this season I do not agree with the line move on this game from the opening number of 10 ½ points. West Virginia is a good offensive team that runs a lot of plays (91 per game) and has been 0.8 yards per play better than average (6.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), but Oklahoma’s defense has been outstanding in allowing just 4.1 yppl to 3 teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Oklahoma has the advantage in that match up and the Sooners’ potent offense (7.0 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) has a significant advantage over an improved but still worse than average Mountaineers’ defense that’s given up 6.6 yppl to Alabama (not a bad performance) and 6.9 yppl to Maryland (that’s a bad performance). Overall my ratings favor Oklahoma by 10 ½ points, which is what the line opened at. I’ll lean with the Sooners minus the points.
South Carolina (-21 ½) 34 VANDERBILT 17
My ratings favor South Carolina by 22 ½ points but this is a letdown spot for the Gamecocks off their big home win over Georgia. South Carolina applies to a negative 83-151-9 ATS road favorite letdown situation that is based on that upset win and Vanderbilt has a good enough defense to keep the Gamecocks’ from scoring too easily (Vandy has allowed just 5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team). I’ll lean with Vanderbilt plus the points based on the strong situation.
FLORIDA STATE (-14 ½) 34 Clemson 21
The big news here is that Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston has been suspended for the first half of this game for being a jackass. The line has dropped 6 points since the news dropped and I actually still think Clemson is the right side. The Tigers’ stock dropped dramatically after losing 21-45 at Georgia but scoring 73 points against South Carolina State is actually very impressive given that SC State has a pretty decent defense. Clemson’s offense certainly isn’t as bad as they showed against Georgia (just 3.9 yards per play) and the Tigers’ run defense isn’t nearly as bad as the 342 yards at 8.8 yards per rushing play allowed to the Bulldogs would indicate. Clemson still has the same talented defensive line that they had before the season started and I rate that defense at 0.9 yards per play better than average (they only allowed 4.4 yards per pass play to Georgia!).
Clemson’s offense does have some concerns, as starting quarterback Cole Stoudt has averaged just 6.5 yards per pass play in his two games against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Freshman backup Deshaun Watson has certainly looked better in both games so far and he’s averaged 13.1 yards on his 15 pass plays. Watson will get some time in this game too and overall I rate the pass attack at 1.0 yards per pass play better than average while the rushing attack has been slightly worse than average through two games. Florida State’s defense hasn’t been as good as projected, but that unit has still been 0.8 yards per play better than average when their starters have been in the game. That’s good, just not as good as last season (1.5 yppl better than average) or as good as projected (1.3 yppl better than average). I still rate Florida State’s defense at 1.0 yppl better than average and project Clemson to gain 368 yards at 4.9 yppl in this game.
Florida State’s offense hasn’t been as explosive as it was last season due to a less talented and experienced receiving corps and that has shown in the yards per completion for Winston. Last season Winston averaged 15.8 yards per completion and this season that number is down to 13.3 ypc. That’s still a good number but not as good as last season. So far Winston has averaged 8.9 yards per pass play while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Last season Winston was 3.4 yppp better than average and thus far he’s only been +2.1 yppp with his less explosive receiving corps. The Seminoles also aren’t running the ball as well, as averaging 168 yards at 5.3 yards per rushing play is pretty mediocre given that Oklahoma State and The Citadel would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team. I do think Winston is likely to be better going forward (I rate him at +2.7 yppp) but the big question is how good backup Sean Maguire will be in his first start while subbing for Winston for the first half. Maguire averaged just 5.0 yards on 22 pass plays last season and he averaged only 5.6 yards on 5 pass plays against The Citadel. That’s not good. However, it’s likely the Maguire will be at least average, and probably better than an average quarterback given the system and the talent surrounding him and his past numbers were posted with mostly backup receivers to throw to. My projection model, based on Maguire’s recruiting rating and the talent rating of the offense he’s playing in would project Maguire to be 0.6 yppp better than average and that’s the rating I’ll assign him.
My adjusted model projects Florida State to run the ball pretty well (5.7 yprp) and they’ll no doubt run the ball a lot in the first half rather than trust Maguire to throw too often. With Maguire playing the first half and Winston playing the second half my ratings project Florida State by 12 ½ points with a total of just 55 ½ points. So, I’ll lean with Clemson and the under.
NEBRASKA (-7 ½) 32 Miami Florida 24
Both of these teams have played well defensively but Nebraska has been more consistent offensively and my ratings favor the Huskers by 8 ½ points. Nebraska’s offense has been good in every game while averaging 47 points and 594 yards per game at 8.1 yards per play (against teams that would combine to allow 6.4 yppl to an average team) and that attack will be tested for the first time by a Miami defense that’s yielded just 3.9 yards per play this season to 3 worse than average offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Nebraska’s offense does have a pretty significant advantage but they’re not going to come close to their 8.1 yards per play average.
Miami’s attack is being led by true freshman Brad Kaaya, who has averaged an impressive 8.1 yards per pass play to go along with a better than average rushing attack. Overall, Miami’s attack has been 1.1 yards per play better than average with Kaaya under center, which matches up pretty evenly with a Nebraska defense that has been 1.0 yppl better than average through 3 games (4.1 yppl against teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team).
Overall, Nebraska has been the better team but Miami appears to be getting better offensively as Kaaya gains confidence. My math favors the Cornhuskers by 10 points but I have a feeling that it could be closer and I will pass on this game.
Oregon (-23 1/2) 51 WASHINGTON STATE 27
Washington State put up 38 points against the Ducks last season so the Cougars certainly are capable of making this game interesting. My model favors Oregon by 24.3 points and I have situations favoring both sides in this game.
Dr Bob
MEMPHIS (-12) 36 Middle Tennessee State 22
Memphis has improved significantly in coach Justin Fuente’s first two seasons and the Tigers are now a better than average team with 17 returning starters back from last year’s underrated 3-9 squad that was much better than their record indicated (0-4 in close games and -8 in fumble margin led to their poor record). After beating up on Austin Peay 63-0 in their opener the Tigers nearly beat UCLA on the road before losing 35-42. After a week off I expect the Tigers to continue to impress. My ratings actually favors Memphis by 17 points in this game (18.6 points based on this seasons games only) but Middle Tennessee State applies to a 120-50-2 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that dampens my enthusiasm a bit. I’ll lean with the Tigers to cover despite that situation.
HOUSTON (-21½) 39 Unlv 21
Both of these teams have been disappointing, but at least Houston played decently in last week’s 25-33 loss at BYU. UNLV, meanwhile, is 0-3 ATS and their only straight up win was by just 1 point, 13-12, as a 27 ½ point favorite against Northern Colorado. The Rebels have been outgained by an average of 177 total yards per game and 5.6 yards per play to 6.9 yppl while facing a schedule that is only 0.2 yppl worse than average from the line of scrimmage. Houston was expected to be much better than they’ve been, but the Cougars were soundly beaten at home 7-27 by UTSA to start the season and they’ve been below average from the line of scrimmage in their two games against FBS competition. I still rate Houston as a better than average team but my ratings only favor the Cougars by 18 points in this game. I’m not fond of backing UNLV but I’ll lean that way based on the line value.
PITTSBURGH (-7) 24 Iowa 18
Iowa has certainly not played as well as expected this season, going 0-3 ATS and coming off a loss to Iowa State as a double-digit favorite last week. Pitt, meanwhile, is 3-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS. I have learned not to overreact to short term results and my database tells me that teams that start the season 0-3 ATS are 21-8-1 ATS in game 4, as long as they have at least 1 straight up win, if they are facing a team with a winning spread record, which tells me that the odds makers and the public do have a tendency to overreact to early season results. My updated ratings actually do favor Pitt by 9 ½ points but this is not a particularly good match up for the Panthers’ offense, which is predicated on running the ball well with bruising back James Conner (544 yards at 6.7 ypr). One thing that Iowa has done as well, or better, than expected is stuff the run, as the Hawkeyes have allowed just 81 rushing yards per game at 3.1 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine to average 4.4 yprp against an average defensive team. If Iowa can neutralize Pitt’s running game then the Panthers’ offense will have to depend on the passing of first year starting quarterback Chad Voytik, who has averaged an unimpressive 5.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. I can certainly see Pitt’s offense struggling to sustain long drives if they don’t run as well as they normally do.
Iowa’s offense has been surprisingly bad, averaging just 5.0 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. I’m not surprised that the Hawkeyes are having trouble running the ball but it’s a mystery as to why 2nd year starting quarterback Jake Rudock is struggling given that he was 0.5 yards per pass play better than average last season and has 4 of last year’s 5 top receivers back for this season. It’s most likely random that he’s averaging just 9.0 yards per completion, as that number is below a normal range for ypc, so I expect Rudock’s numbers to improve as the yards per catch go back up to normal. Pitt’s defense has been solid and rates at 0.2 yards per play better than average, so the Panthers do have an overall advantage over Iowa’s struggling attack.
While my ratings to favor Pitt by 9 ½ points, with a total of just 42 points, I would actually rather lean with Iowa here, as the Hawkeyes are very likely to play better than they have offensively. Iowa is also 39-18-1 ATS after a loss since 2000 and they apply to a 42-9 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on teams in game 4 that are coming off their first loss of the season. I also lean under the 46 point total.
BYU (-14½) 32 Virginia 16
Virginia has a good defense, one that has yielded just 4.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit. However, BYU has an equally good defense (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl) and a much better offense. The Cougars have averaged 5.9 yppl in 3 games against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack while the Cavaliers have managed just 4.7 yppl against teams that would yield 5.4 yppl). My math favors BYU by 16 points so the line move down to 14 ½ points appears to be unjustified.
Army (-2½) 24 WAKE FOREST 21
Both of these teams may have a tough time scoring points, as Army’s option attack may not be at its best against a Wake Forest defense with a better than average defensive front 7 (allowing just 3.7 yards per rushing play through 3 games) while Wake Forest’s pathetic offense (just 19 points and 238 yards per game at 3.6 yards per play) may not be able to take full advantage of a bad Army defense that’s given up 6.9 yppl to Buffalo and Stanford. I get Army by 3½ points with a total of 45½ points.
MICHIGAN (-3½) 28 Utah 24
The line on this game has been going down all week after opening at 6 ½ points. That opening number was high and the line move was justified but now Michigan could be the side to lean with, especially if top WR Devin Funchess is healthy enough to play after sitting out last week with a leg injury (he’s said to be a game time decision). Utah is a very good team that’s playing well on both sides of the ball (I rate them at 0.4 yppl better than average offensively and 0.6 yppl better than average on defense), but Michigan moves the ball very well offensively when quarterback Devin Gardner is not throwing interceptions (as he’s prone to do) and the Wolverines have an underrated defense that’s only yielded 4.2 yards per play and only gave up 4.4 yppl in their 0-31 loss to Notre Dame. My math projects Michigan to outgain the Utes 432 yards to 330 yards but Utah is much better in special teams and are less likely to commit turnovers and overall the math favors Michigan by 4.2 points (with a total of 52.3 points). I’d pass on the side and lean under (56 points).
NAVY (-6½) 34 Rutgers 26
Aside from a few big pass plays that they gave up to Ohio State, the Midshipmen appear to be much better defensively this season and the offense has been exceptional. Navy has averaged a modest 27.7 points per game but they’ve gained 459 yards per game at 6.9 yards per play, which is more indicative of future scoring. Rutgers is nothing special defensively, although they did play well last week against Penn State (but also gave up 7.7 yppl to Washington State), and I expect Navy to move the ball as well as they have been. Rutgers has a good offense too, as the Scarlet Knights have averaged 6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. That unit should move the ball pretty well against an improved but still slightly worse than average Navy defense. My ratings favor Navy by 8 ½ points with a total of 60 ½ points so I’ll lean with the Midshipmen and over.
PENN STATE (-27) 41 Massachusetts 10
Penn State should move the ball through the air at will with Christian Hackenberg (7.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB) going up against a U Mass secondary that’s allowed 66% completions and 6.8 yppp to a collection of sub-par quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.2 yppp against an average defensive team. Penn State’s offense will probably go cold if they build a big lead and start running the ball, which is something that they haven’t been able to do (just 3.5 yards per rushing play), as U Mass actually defends the run pretty well (4.9 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yprp against an average team). I don’t expect the Minutemen to have many scoring opportunities with an offense that’s averaged just 4.7 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) going up against a Nittany Lions’ stop unit that’s yielded just 4.5 yppl to a collection of teams that would combine for 5.5 yppl against an average defense. Don’t be fooled by the 69 points that U Mass has scored the last two weeks against Colorado and Vanderbilt, as the 34.5 points per game is not an indication of offensive effectiveness (they averaged just 4.7 yppl in those games). My model projects Penn State to jump out a 20 point halftime lead and they’ll probably run up good offensive numbers through 3 quarters. However, the Nittany Lions will probably stop scoring if they protect their big lead by trying to run the ball in the 4th quarter. My math model adjusts for the likelihood of Penn State running more than usual and still projects them to cover. However, this could be a bit of a flat spot for the Lions after a narrow road win last week at Rutgers and another conference game coming up next week (Northwestern). I’d still rather lay the points.
MISSOURI (-13½) 42 Indiana 28
Indiana hasn’t looked very good on the scoreboard so far, as the Hoosiers have lost to the spread by double-digits in each of their two games, a 28-10 win as a 33 point favorite against Indiana State and a 3 point loss as an 8 point favorite at Bowling Green. However, those results are misleading and I think the Hoosiers are an improved team this season with a defense that’s allowed just 4.4 yards per play in those games to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team. The Indiana offense was great last season and looks pretty potent again this year based on their 574 yards per game at 7.0 yards per play, so overall I like how the Hoosiers have played and eventually it will start to show up on the scoreboard. However, this may not be that game given that Missouri is good on both sides of the ball, rating at 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and 0.7 yppl better than average defensively so far this season, and the Tigers apply to a very good 73-20-2 ATS momentum situation today. My ratings only favor Missouri by 12 points and using this year’s stats only would favor the Tigers by just 9 points. However, the situation favoring Missouri is strong enough to cancel out the line value favoring Indiana. I’ll pass.
ILLINOIS (-13½) 38 Texas State 28
Illinois is a mediocre team that doesn’t appear worthy of being favored by two touchdowns over a decent Texas State team. The Illini are a bit better than average offensively, averaging 6.2 yards per play against 3 teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team, and they’ve been average defensively so far. Texas State, meanwhile, averaged 8.7 yards per play in a 65-0 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff (although APB would allow 9.1 yppl to an average FBS team) and then the Bobcats gained 442 yards at 5.5 yppl in last week’s loss to Navy, who would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. So, Texas State has been 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively in both game this season and should score a decent number of points with their up tempo attack. The Bobcats are a worse than average defensive team, allowing 5.6 yppl to two teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team, but that’s not bad enough to justify the line on this game. My ratings favor Illinois by just 10 points and I’ll lean with Texas State plus the points.
MINNESOTA (-10) 29 San Jose State 19
San Jose State’s new quarterback Blake Jurich is playing well (73% completions and 7.7 yards per pass play against North Dakota State and Auburn defenses that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average QB) but the Spartans can’t run the ball (just 3.5 yards per rushing play) and is 0.3 yards per play worse than average. The Spartans certainly aren’t a bad team but Minnesota is a bit better on both sides of the ball. The line move up to 10 points doesn’t seem justified based on my ratings (I get Minnesota by 8 ½) but San Jose State does apply to a negative 24-61 ATS game 3 situation. I’ll pass.
Dr Bob
Marshall (-9½) 36 AKRON 26
Marshall is once again putting up huge offensive numbers with Rakeem Cato pulling the trigger of a good aerial attack and Devon Johnson leading the ground assault with 379 yards at 8.1 ypr. The Thundering Herd have averaged 621 yards at 8.2 yards per play against 3 bad teams (Miami-Ohio, Rhode Island, and Ohio) that would combine to allow 6.6 yppl to an average team. Akron’s defense played at a decent level in last week’s 3-21 loss at Penn State (432 yards allowed at 6.5 yppl) and the Zips are certainly better defensively than any of the teams Marshall has faced so far. The Herd are still projected to rack up 471 yards at 6.5 yppl and it may be tough for Akron’s sub-par offense to keep up against a decent Marshall stop unit that’s allowed just 4.4 yppl (to teams that would combine to average 4.4 yppl against an average team. The numbers looks about right, as my ratings favor Marshall by 10 points, but I will lean with the over.
WYOMING (-3½) 25 Florida Atlantic 19
Florida Atlantic was steamrolled in their first two games by Nebraska and Alabama, giving up an average of 702 yards at 8.8 yards per play in those games while being outscored 7-96. The Owls rebounded with a 50-21 win over Tulsa last week and having starting quarterback Jaquez Johnson back for that game certainly helped the attack. Johnson was injured in week 1 and missed the Alabama game but he played great last week against Tulsa with 308 yards on just 21 pass plays. Johnson is still a worse than average passer over this career but there are certainly indications that he might be better than average this season. It is also likely that the Owls are not going to be nearly as bad defensively as they were the first two weeks and last week they gave up just 4.6 yppl to Tulsa. My model takes all of that into account but it still favors Wyoming by 4 ½ points in this game, as the Cowboys’ compensated numbers are decent on both sides of the ball, as they’ve faced an average schedule of teams (Oregon and two bad teams in Montana and Air Force average out an average schedule) and have only been outgained 5.3 yards per play to 5.6 yppl. In addition to the little bit of line value favoring Wyoming, FAU applies to a negative 14-53-1 ATS statistical match up indicator. I’ll side with the Cowboys.
Appalachian State (+2½) 31 SOUTHERN MISS 30
My ratings pick this game even in a game between two teams with horrible run defenses. In such games I prefer to take the team that is more capable of taking advantage of the opponent’s inability to defend the run and in this case that team is Appalachian State, who has run for 229 yards per game at 5.7 yards per rushing play, including averaging 4.8 yprp against a very good Michigan run defense. Southern Miss has averaged only 4.3 yprp against a trio of teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team and the Eagles only scored 26 points at home against Alcorn State, who is a horrendous defense team. I’ll lean with Appalachian State plus the points.
MEMPHIS (-12) 36 Middle Tennessee State 22
Memphis has improved significantly in coach Justin Fuente’s first two seasons and the Tigers are now a better than average team with 17 returning starters back from last year’s underrated 3-9 squad that was much better than their record indicated (0-4 in close games and -8 in fumble margin led to their poor record). After beating up on Austin Peay 63-0 in their opener the Tigers nearly beat UCLA on the road before losing 35-42. After a week off I expect the Tigers to continue to impress. My ratings actually favors Memphis by 17 points in this game (18.6 points based on this seasons games only) but Middle Tennessee State applies to a 120-50-2 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that dampens my enthusiasm a bit. I’ll lean with the Tigers to cover despite that situation.
TOLEDO (-14) 38 Ball State 22
Toledo didn’t miss a beat offensively with backup quarterback Logan Woodside playing in place of injured starter Phillip Ely, as the Rockets’ offense blasted off for 563 yards at 6.9 yards per play against a solid Cincinnati defense in Woodside’s first start last week. Toledo has now averaged 550 yards at 7.0 yppl in 3 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. The problem with the Rockets is a defense that is good defending the run but is being ripped apart through the air, allowing 350 yards at 8.3 yards per pass play. The secondary has had major attrition due to injury and suspension and good quarterbacks at Missouri and Cincinnati exploited that weakness. Ball State quarterback Ozzie Mann is not as equipped to take advantage of Toledo’s pass defense, as Mann has completed just 54.6% of his passes for only 5.1 yards per pass play despite facing 3 teams that would combine to allow 7.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Ball State’s rushing attack is bad too (4.4 yards per rushing play) and while they could have some aerial success if Mann is capable of hitting open receivers (that’s questionable) I don’t see how they’ll be able to keep up with the numerous points that Toledo is likely to score against a Cardinals’ defense that has been 0.5 yppl worse than average so far this season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yppl against an average defense). My ratings actually favor Toledo by 21 points in this game but Ball State applies to a very good 120-52-2 ATS bounce-back situation while Toledo applies to a negative 63-128-2 ATS first conference home favorite angle. Those two situations have intersected 3 times and the road team is 3-0 ATS. Despite that, I’d still rather back Toledo, who is 20-5 ATS in conference home games after a loss in their history.
ARKANSAS (-13½) 36 Northern Illinois 25
My first thought on this game would be that there would be a lot of points scored, but I actually lean towards the under upon further examination. Both offenses have been good but each is playing into the strength of the opposing defense. Northern Illinois is a run first team, as the Huskies have averaged 63.3 running plays per game and just 28.7 pass plays. That suits the Razorbacks, who are a bit better than average defending the run while being worse than average against the pass (compensated for the fact that they faced a very good running team in Auburn). The key to the Arkansas offense is also running the ball, which the Razorbacks do as well as any team in the nation. Arkansas averaged 5.7 yards per rushing play against Auburn and just racked up 443 ground yards at 6.8 yprp in a win at Texas Tech last week. Arkansas’ passing numbers have been below average so they’ll need to continue to run the ball well to be effective offensively. The problem in this game for Arkansas’ run-oriented attack is that Northern Illinois has a defense that’s allowed just 3.5 yards per rushing play (against teams that would average 4.2 yprp against an average defense) while being decidedly worse than average defending the pass. If these teams were more balanced offensively the projected number of points in this game would be higher but it’s strength against strength for both offenses in this game, which should lead to a lower than anticipated total score. I’ll lean Under and with Northern Illinois.
OHIO (-14) 36 Idaho 26
Idaho is a horrible defensive team but the Vandals have shown enough offensive aptitude (32 points and 425 yards per game at 5.5 yards per play) to stay within a couple of touchdowns of a sub-par Ohio team that’s averaged only 11.3 points per game. Ohio is actually better than that offensively, as they’ve averaged 5.3 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack), and the Bobcats should have no trouble moving the ball in this game. I like the over here and will also side with Idaho based on a 65-29-1 ATS situation that is based on the 45 points that they gave up last week in a 12 point loss to Western Michigan.
COLORADO (-8) 34 Hawaii 26
Colorado is a decent offensive team but the Buffaloes have struggled defensively in allowing 6.2 yards per play and over 30 points in all 3 of their games. Giving up 38 to Arizona State last week is actually not too bad but allowing U Mass to score 38 points against them in week 2 is alarming. Colorado’s biggest issue is run defense, as the Buffs have given up an average of 211 rushing yards at 6.1 yards per rushing play. Hawaii’s leading rusher Joey Iosefa is out and the Warriors aren’t that good of a running team with him (just 4.0 yards per rushing play) and their pass attack sucks as bad as I thought it would (just 4.5 yards per pass play). The Warriors do run a lot of plays though and being able to run better than they normally do against a bad Colorado run defense will help them control the ball. The Hawaii defense has been decent, even after adjusting for facing Washington’s backup quarterback in week 1 and overall my ratings only favor Colorado by 6 points. But, Hawaii applies to a negative 66-145-2 ATS road letdown situation today, so I certainly don’t want to back them. But, I’m not keen on laying more than a touchdown with Colorado either. I’ll pass.
HOUSTON (-21½) 39 Unlv 21
Both of these teams have been disappointing, but at least Houston played decently in last week’s 25-33 loss at BYU. UNLV, meanwhile, is 0-3 ATS and their only straight up win was by just 1 point, 13-12, as a 27 ½ point favorite against Northern Colorado. The Rebels have been outgained by an average of 177 total yards per game and 5.6 yards per play to 6.9 yppl while facing a schedule that is only 0.2 yppl worse than average from the line of scrimmage. Houston was expected to be much better than they’ve been, but the Cougars were soundly beaten at home 7-27 by UTSA to start the season and they’ve been below average from the line of scrimmage in their two games against FBS competition. I still rate Houston as a better than average team but my ratings only favor the Cougars by 18 points in this game. I’m not fond of backing UNLV but I’ll lean that way based on the line value.
BOISE STATE (-17) 40 UL Lafayette 23
UL Lafayette has been disappointing so far, as veteran quarterback Terrance Broadway has not been connecting on big pass plays as he did the last two seasons (just 9.6 yards per completion so far) while the Ragin’ Cajuns’ defense has been horrible in allowing 7.8 yards per play the last two weeks to Louisiana Tech and Ole’ Miss. I suspect that Broadway will get better but I projected the defense to be bad this season and Boise’s better than average attack (6.0 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) should move the ball very efficiently in this game. The one element of Lafayette’s offense that has been good has been their rushing attack (5.7 yards per rushing play) but Boise has one of the best run defenses in the nation (just 75 yards at 2.9 yprp allowed to 3 average running teams), so Broadway will need to step up his level of play if the Ragin’ Cajuns hope to keep this game close. My ratings favor Boise by 17 ½ points and I’ll take a pass on this game.
Dr Bob
WASHINGTON (-34½) 51 Georgia State 21
Washington hasn’t been as good as projected under new coach Chris Peterson and last week’s 44-19 win over Illinois is a bit misleading given the 14 points that the Huskies’ defense scored. Washington’s offense looks to be in good shape with Cyler Miles at quarterback the last two games (he was suspended for the Hawaii game in week 1), as he’s complete 66% of his passes for 8.0 yards per pass play, but the Washington defense has been mediocre. Georgia State has a pretty good offense that rates as average after compensating for the 3 bad defenses that they’ve put up very good numbers against (36 points and 524 yards per game at 7.0 yards per play), so the Panthers should be able to score enough points to stay within the big number in this game.
ARIZONA (-8) 40 California 34
I had Cal on my list of potential Best Bets when the line opened at 12 ½ points and I still lean with the Bears even after the substantial line move. Most expected Cal’s offense to be better in quarterback Jared Goff’s 2nd season in coach Sonny Dykes’ spread offense and Goff has completed 68% of his passes for 8.7 yards per pass play. What most didn’t expect, but I did, was that the Bears’ defense would be much, much better after an injury riddled defense allowed 46 points per game last season. Cal has pretty highly rated talent on the defensive side of the ball and the hiring of defensive coordinator Art Kaufman was a wise move given the success he’s had in the past improving defenses in his first season on the job. Cal allowed just 4.4 yards per play in a win at Northwestern and last week the starting defense dominated Sacramento State before the subs gave up some yardage in the second half. Cal is not a dominating defense but they are better than average on a national scale.
Arizona’s offense, however, still holds a significant advantage in this game, as the Wildcats attack has averaged 40 points on 583 yards per game at 7.5 yards per play while facing 3 teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack. Arizona isn’t likely to get to their 7.5 yppl average but they will have more plays in this game since Cal is also an up tempo team, which means the Cats will have more possessions to work with.
While Arizona is likely to score a good number of points, the Wildcats’ leaky pass defense is likely to be exploited by Goff and his plethora of talented young receivers. Arizona has allowed 6.4 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.7 yppp against an average defensive team and Cal should move the ball pretty easily if the Dykes is smart enough to try not to establish the Bears’ weak rushing attack and let Goff pick apart the Cats’ secondary. My ratings favor Arizona by just 6 points in this game with a total of 74 points so I’ll still lean with Cal despite the line move and I’ll lean with the over (70 points).
Appalachian State (+2½) 31 SOUTHERN MISS 30
My ratings pick this game even in a game between two teams with horrible run defenses. In such games I prefer to take the team that is more capable of taking advantage of the opponent’s inability to defend the run and in this case that team is Appalachian State, who has run for 229 yards per game at 5.7 yards per rushing play, including averaging 4.8 yprp against a very good Michigan run defense. Southern Miss has averaged only 4.3 yprp against a trio of teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team and the Eagles only scored 26 points at home against Alcorn State, who is a horrendous defense team. I’ll lean with Appalachian State plus the points.
OHIO (-14) 36 Idaho 26
Idaho is a horrible defensive team but the Vandals have shown enough offensive aptitude (32 points and 425 yards per game at 5.5 yards per play) to stay within a couple of touchdowns of a sub-par Ohio team that’s averaged only 11.3 points per game. Ohio is actually better than that offensively, as they’ve averaged 5.3 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack), and the Bobcats should have no trouble moving the ball in this game. I like the over here and will also side with Idaho based on a 65-29-1 ATS situation that is based on the 45 points that they gave up last week in a 12 point loss to Western Michigan.
Joe D'Amico
Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas
Play: Northern Illinois +14
At 3-0 both SU and ATS, NIU is playing solid football. The Huskies have won 17 straight road games, going 14-3 ATS in that span. RB, Cameron Stingily is back in form and QB Drew Hare has passed for nearly 500 yards, with a 6/0 TD/INT ration, and a 62.7% CR. I know Arkansas is the #2 team in the nation on the ground but NIU has a stout defense that ranks 13th against the run, allowing just 2.4 YPC. They are giving the Razorbacks way too much credit here. Take NIU.
MLB Predictions
Cleveland Indians -129
With some teams already clinching division championships, it can be a little trickier with some teams having less to play for other than getting ready for the playoffs. The Indians are a team that are on the outside looking in on a wildcard spot, but are still alive in the race. Trevor May should give them a boost today. Yes, the Twins pitcher, who has been looking forward to the offseason. May brings an ERA of 7.71 to the game today. The ERA is better at home, 6.60, but he is putting almost 2 runners per inning on base as his 1.93 WHIP indicates. He also holds a .408 OBP. May only has one start of over 5 innings to his credit. His opponent T.J. House has had considerable success against the Twins this season. Note that in his last two starts against the Twins, House held them down each time. In 12.1 innings against the Twins he didn't give up a single run with only 8 hits in total. House has been on fire lately as well, posting a 0.86 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and .247 OBP his last three starts. In his first season as a starter in the majors, House has all but solidified a spot in the rotation for next season. He's been locked in, and should be locked in once again against the Twins Saturday afternoon. The Indians got tripped up in extra innings last night, but should comeback with a victory behind House.
Jeff Porter
Georgia Tech +7.5
Get this one before it drops, because it almost surely will before game-time and that could severely affect the outcome of your bet. No telling what you are going to get with this VA TECH squad that beat OH ST, 35-21, two weeks ago on the Buckeyes home turf and then came out and laid a complete egg last week against a rising ECU, losing 28-21. Despite being a frustrating 1-2 ATS for their backers this season, Georgia Tech has been a nice surprise so far in 2014, jumping out to a perfect 3-0 ML start and averaging over 39 PPG. The Yellow Jackets have struggled when playing as the road dog in recent seasons, posting a dismal 1-5 ATS record the last 6 times they were getting the points on someone else’s campus. They almost always play VA TECH tough also as 5-of-the-L6 meetings between the 2 schools have been decided by 7 points or less, despite the fact that VA TECH has lost only once in that span and hasn’t lost to the Yellow Jackets in any of the L4 meetings. The underdog has been a nice cover in their recent meetings as well, with the team getting the points a hefty 7-1 ATS in the L8 meetings between the two schools. The road team also carries a 7-1 ATS record in the L8 contests between them. Not too mention, while GA TECH has lost 3 straight to the Hokies in Virginia, they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the L4 meetings there, with the 3 losses decided by 3, 7 and 3 points respectively. They won the 4th-to-last meeting there back in 2006. We’ll roll with the road dog. Jump on the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS as the road dog.
Tom Stryker
Ball State at Toledo
Pick: Toledo
Off back-to-back straight up losses to Missouri and Cincinnati and locked into a double revenge mode, Toledo will bring its "A-Game" on Saturday night. The Rockets were chosen to win the MAC West over Northern Illinois and Ball State before the season started and it is time UT took care of business.
If you plan on fading Toledo as a conference host, you better have a darn good reason. The Rockets own a tremendous 65-19-1 SU and 41-23 ATS record in the Glass Bowl against MAC schools including a profitable 20-5 ATS mark in this set coming off a straight up loss. Equally impressive, as a favorite fighting in a payback mode, UT holds a decent 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS record.
Led by first-year quarterback Ozzie Mann, Ball State makes the trek to Toledo with a 1-2 SU record and off a 27-20 loss to Indiana State. This is going to be another tough spot for the Cardinals. According to my notes, BSU holds a stiff 16-25 ATS record when priced as an underdog coming off two or more straight up losses including a shocking 1-7 SU and ATS in this situation going into revenge.
If you visit the Glass Bowl and have hopes of knocking off Toledo, you better bring an offense with you. That's where the Redbirds are lacking this season. Ball State is ranked 100th in the FBS in scoring averaging just 21.0 points per game. With a chance to get a leg up in the MAC West and settle an old score, the Rockets will come out firing and with a sense of purpose.
Ben Burns
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -135
The Pirates were my free release yesterday, and that was just another "winner on the pile." They came from behind to stun Milwaukee, 4-2, scoring all of their runs in the home half of the eighth. This series is all about two ballclubs trending in very different directions. I'm sticking with the hotter team, obviously.
Pittsburgh has won 12 of its last 14 and now leads Milwaukee by 4.5 games in the race for the second Wild Card spot in the N.L. There was a time that the Brewers led the Pirates by 9.5 games, but that is a distant memory. They are 8-20 their last 28 games, including 1-11 on the road. Both the hitting and pitching have betrayed Milwaukee during this slump and they have the look of a team that knows its season is coming to and end.
The Pirates are one of the better home teams in the league at 50-29.
Making Milwaukee's task even more difficult here is that Pittsburgh will have Edinson Volquez pitching. He has not lost in 10 starts, posting a 1.73 ERA his last eight. He's allowed three earned runs or less in all 10 starts. Volquez has also had the Brewers' number with a 2.88 ERA in four starts against them.
Brewers starter Matt Garza has a 6.55 ERA in two starts vs. Pittsburgh this year.
I brought this up yesterday, but despite a losing record vs. Milwaukee this year, the Pirates have outscored them - by 14 runs following last night's win.
Jeff Alexander
Seattle Mariners -104
Keuchel has looked good the last month or so following a rough 5-start stretch from June 17-July 19. However, the value still lies with the Mariners at this price as they have owned the Astros and have something to play for. Seattle, which is a half-game out of a wild-card slot, is 12-3 in its last 13 at Houston, including 6-0 in its last 6. Seattle's Young is 4-0 (5-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.13 in 5 career starts versus the 'Stros. Keuchel has won his last 2 decisions in Seattle but is 0-2 in 2 career home starts versus the M's. The Astros are 4-18 in his last 22 starts on 5 days' rest while the Mariners are 4-0 in Young's last 4 starts on 5 days' rest.
Dave Price
Cleveland Indians -117
Minnesota can't be trusted with May on the mound. The right-hander has looked better of late but still has an ERA of 7.71 on the season, a 6.60 ERA in home starts, a 5.54 ERA in division starts and an 8.44 ERA in night starts. Cleveland's House has a 3.42 ERA on the season and has sizzled in division play, going 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in seven starts. He's 2-0 in his last two starts versus Minnesota without giving up a single run in 12 1-3 innings. The Indians are 4-0 in House's last four starts, 5-0 in his last five starts versus losing clubs and 7-1 in his last eight starts as a favorite. The Twins are 1-4 in May's last five starts versus winning clubs and 0-5 in his last five Saturday starts. The Indians have won nine of the last 13 meetings in Minnesota.
Nick Parsons
Indiana vs. Missouri
Play: Missouri -13
Missouri looks to remain unbeaten heading into SEC play when they face Indiana today. Missouri is 3-0 after beating South Dakota State 38-10, Toledo 49-24 and UCF 38-10. Indiana comes into this game 1-1. They eased by FCS Indiana State 28-10 and then losing in the final seconds to Bowling Green 45-42.
Missouri's 45-28 win at Indiana last season was its first victory over the Hoosiers since 1954.
Indiana has averaged 574 yards a game and scores on average 35 points a game. I don’t think they will be able to do that this week against Missouri. Tevin Coleman leads a staunch rushing attack. He is fifth in FBS rushing with 437 yards in only two games. Again I say- Look at the competition.
Quarterback Nate Sudfeld has completed 71.2 percent of his passes for 458 yards and just throwing just one interception‚ but he has only one touchdown pass.
Missouri's offense has averaged 41.7 points a game and averaging just 405 yards a game. They have been efficient on third down, keeping drives alive, and scoring in the red zone 9 of 13 times.
The key to the offense belongs to quarterback Maty Mauk. He already has 13 touchdowns and has thrown only three interceptions. Mauk throws the ball to everybody. His top three wide receivers all have double digit receptions. Bud Sasser leads the team 215 yards and four TDs. He is followed by Jimmy Hunt 215 yards and 4 TDs and Darius White with 179 yards and 3 TDs. Both running backs have over 200 yards each.
The Tigers' defense is allowing just 17.3 points a game while forcing nine turnovers.
Missouri has easily breezed by its first three opponents‚ and I see no reason to expect anything to change against an up and down Indiana team. Missouri rolls out to an early lead and never looks back.
Joe Gavazzi
Indiana vs. Missouri
Play: Missouri -13
Despite the dichotomous AFP results for these two, there has been little value accorded Indiana in this contest. Though the Hoosiers are 0-2 ATS (-24 AFP) and Missouri is 2-1 ATS (+33 AFP), there has been little movement in this pointspread from opening week. With that knowledge, Missouri becomes the clear choice in this contest. Indiana appears to have made little defensive improvement. Last week, the Hoosiers allowed Bowling Green to gain 574 yards in a 45-42 come from behind victory. The Missouri defense is far more reliable. In the 38-10 home victory over UCF last week, Missouri held a 178-83 edge at the line of scrimmage, as well as profiting from a +3 net TO margin. Indiana is just 3-7 ATS away of late and has allowed an average of 47 PPG in their previous 15 lined games. 13-4 ATS current Missouri uptick combined with this value price makes the home standing Tigers the right side in what will surely be a high-scoring affair.
Freddy Wills
North Carolina vs. East Carolina
Play: North Carolina +3
We were all over East Carolina last week as our earlybird special when they had to face Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech him off a huge road victory over Ohio State 14 it was then rent and I definitely thought they were going to be in a letdown situation against an underrated East Carolina team. East Carolina is no longer underrated after they defeated Virginia Tech last week with an out right victory. So were in the same situation this week but in this scenario I'm fading East Carolina and I'm gonna back North Carolina as I feel East Carolina will have a major letdown here at home.
A few things working here for North Carolina. For one they get 15 stars back from last year and they clearly remember the loss they had at home against East Carolina in a blowout 55 to 31. East Carolina is wrong and inexperienced in the secondary now they face a dual threat quarterback that can run and throw in Marquice Williams. Williams has a plenty of receivers that can get open with NFL talent such as Quinshad Davis. As impressive as ease Carolinas effort was last week against Virginia Tech they did get outscored 21-7 through three quarters after exploding with the 21-0 lead start again.
At the end of the day North Carolina also has an extra week to prepare for this game and they are motivated based on last years result and they won't be taking this team lightly.