Bob Balfe
Pittsburgh Pirates -135
The Brewers blew a golden chance to get back into this wildcard race and take control of this series. Gallardo pitched excellent and the blew the game late. That is the type of game that starts the downfall of a team for the rest of the season. Reality has started to sink in for this Brewers team. Take the Pirates.
Harry Bondi
ARIZONA (-7.5) over California
No doubt, California is a much-improved team and if you visited the FREE PICK page here a few weeks ago we gave you the Bears (+10) in a outright 31-24 victory over Northwestern. But all of a sudden, Cal is getting way too much respect from the general public and the oddsmaker. Last year, Arizona was a 14.5 favorite on the road. Are we to believe that the Wildcats have slipped so far and the Bears have improved so much that this kind of a swing is warranted? Very quietly Arizona is 3-0 and the offense has been rolling up serious yardage, averaging 583 yards per game. The Cats speed at home will prove to be too much for a suddenly overrated Cal team that has only covered four of its last 18 Pac-12 games. The price is cheap here. Lay it!
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Alabama Crimson Tide, over the Florida Gators.
I know this is an awfully big number to lay against the Gators, but make note that Florida is in after playing into three overtimes to knock off Kentucky, which had lost 27 straight in the series.
With this one being played in Tuscaloosa, I don't mind laying this number, especially with quarterback Blake Sims throwing against Florida's highly suspect defensive secondary.
Alabama, which has covered six of seven when hosting SEC foes, also has running backs T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry, who both will be rested since they've had only 16 total carries in the past two games. They can help balance things out when Sims isn't aiming for wideout Amari Cooper.
Lay the points with the Tide.
2♦ ALABAMA
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Mississippi State Bulldogs plus the points at LSU in a crucial early SEC matchup.
The easy pick might be LSU based on their recent dominance over the 'Dogs, but I'm here to tell you I think this MSU team might be the best in Starkville in a long time.
We've all been watching both Mississippi schools get better and better with slow progression each of the past five years... and this might be the year one of them makes a quiet run.
LSU has won 14 straight and 21 of the last 22 meetings between these two schools, and is currently playing very good defense, shutting out their last two opponents after falling behind to Wisconsin 24-7 in Week 1.
After halftime of that game the Tigers have been a different beast... especially defensively. Granted, the one thing of concern for Les Miles has been at the QB position. Without Zach Mettenberger pushing it down the field, it's been very tough to generate a ton of offense on the ground only.
This will play right into our hands as the Dogs are catching 9 to 9 1/2 points at the time of this writing.
MSU has won six straight dating back to last season... its longest streak since winning nine straight from 2011 to 2012. They are also getting it done on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just over 12 PPG.
Look for a defensive battle in Baton Rouge tonight, with the Bulldogs sneaking in for the backdoor cover.
4♦ MISS STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the rested and revenge-seeking Tar Heels of North Carolina over the Pirates of East Carolina.
North Carolina getting no love at on the road this time around, as ECU is coming off a very satisfying road win at Blacksburg, upsetting Virginia Tech by a 28-21 final count.
Tar Heels lost by 24 points last season at home to the Piraes, but it was the first non-cover for UNC in the series since 2001! ECU is 3-13 ATS vs. teams with winning records AND 3-13 ATS in last 16 home games following consecutive non-conference games.
North Carolina coming off BYE in Revenge mode and ECU walking into a let-down game! Damn the torpedoes baby, and side with North Carolina to catch East Carolina in the classic "letdown" spot.
Take the Tar Heels plus the points.
4♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the Wyoming Cowboys over Florida Atantic.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with Wyoming - Laramie's altitude has a significant effect on opponents, and teams coming from tropical weather are sure to suffer. Florida Atlantic is sitting at sea level. Today the Owls will play at 7,220 feet, and I'd guess we'll see the difference in the fourth quarter.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against Florida Atlantic - Lack of a big play. Through their first three games this season, the Cowboys have been stellar in limiting teams from hitting the big play, something that hurt them endlessly last season.
In conclusion, why WYOMING is my SMART PLAY in this game - The Cowboys' defense looked solid n the first two games of the season, allowing a total of 25 points, as they attacked the opposition, and tackled with a lot of momentum and excitement. They looked like they wanted to be there.
They'll want to get back to that style after the Ducks ran through Wyoming last week, scoring touchdowns on six consecutive drives before pulling some of their starters. Wyoming's defense needs will bounce back nicely today.
2♦ WYOMING
Chris Jordan
My free play for today is on Wisconsin over Bowling Green.
I know that Bowling Green pulled out a 45-42 win over another Big Ten foe last week, as the Falcons knocked off Indiana, they did so against a horrendous defense and mark my words, quarterback James Knapke won't have as easy a time this week at Camp Randall, in Madison, against a much better Wisconsin team.
The Badgers do a very good job of rotating players, and while they have some big boys up there, they're also fast and athletic. There's always a question to lay this many points, but I also know better than to take this number since Wisconsin has won its last six games following a bye week by an average of 34.3 points.
All Badgers.
1♦ WISCONSIN
Brad Wilton
Marshall off to a "thundering" 3-0 start to their season, and have only a date at Old Dominion on-deck on October 4th. You would think that considering the scheduling, the Thundering Herd would be a good play today against the 1-1 Zips, but Marshall has been a but when laying points on the road over the years, and it looks like a trap to back them minus the number in this one.
Akron has had the extra week to prepare, and they have covered the last 3 home meetings against Marshall heading into this weekend's contest.
Marshall could not cover against a bad Miami-Ohio team on the road in their opening game this season, and are now on a 2-9-1 spread slide their last dozen when laying points away from Huntington.
In fact, the home team is now 13-1 ATS the last 14 Marshall spread games dating back to last year.
Can't ignore those numbers, take Akron plus the points at home.
3♦ AKRON
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Alabama Crimson Tide, over the Florida Gators.
I know this is an awfully big number to lay against the Gators, but make note that Florida is in after playing into three overtimes to knock off Kentucky, which had lost 27 straight in the series.
With this one being played in Tuscaloosa, I don't mind laying this number, especially with quarterback Blake Sims throwing against Florida's highly suspect defensive secondary.
Alabama, which has covered six of seven when hosting SEC foes, also has running backs T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry, who both will be rested since they've had only 16 total carries in the past two games. They can help balance things out when Sims isn't aiming for wideout Amari Cooper.
Lay the points with the Tide.
2♦ ALABAMA
Cajun-Sports
Florida Atlantic Owls +3.5
The Owls hit the road for a meeting against the Cowboys of Wyoming on Saturday afternoon. A check of our database reveals a 100 percent perfect winning situation that favors Florida Atlantic in this contest. We want to Play ON a non-conference road underdog of at least 2.5 points but not more than 13 points coming off a home underdog straight up win versus an opponent coming off a road SU loss. This system is 14-0 ats covering by an average of 15.21 points per game.
Red Dog Sports
France vs. Australia
Play: France +6
The women's world championship is set for next Saturday (September 27). The USA is a big favorite but next to win it is Spain at 9-1 and Australia/France at 17-1. The two teams at 17 to 1 play each other on Saturday in France. Both played on Friday. The Aussies lost 72-66 to the USA while France won against China by 74-54. The French are a solid defensive team as the total is set at 128.5. Australia is without injured Lauren Jackson but do have 6'8" Liz Cambage and Penny Taylor. I hope the home crowd and the defense of the French can keep this one close.
The Gold Sheet
Mississippi St +9½
Though LSU has captured 14 straight in the series, our long-time SEC sources assert this is the most talented MSU bunch over that time frame. We concur. So, interested in “taking” with SEC West hopeful Bulldogs, who’ve covered 5 of their last 6 away from Starkville. It’s a good bet Bulldogs’ marvelous triple-threat QB Zak Prescott (threw, rushed & caught a TD vs. South Alabama!) outperforms Tigers’ still-learning soph QB Anthony Jennings (only 51.9%), who’ll be forced to take on a greater burden, with his prized frosh RB duo of Leonard Fournette & Darrel Williams reasonably contained by a veteran, athletic MSU stop unit (2.3 ypc; 11 sacks, 5 ints.) Play MSU Bulldogs
Teddy Covers
Tulane / Duke Over 58
There’s something new in Durham this football season. It’s not Duke’s success. David Cutcliffe took this long moribund program to the ACC title game last December and coaxed ten wins out of his squad; not bad for a program that had won seven or more games only three times in the previous 50 years.
But this year, Duke has legitimate skill position playmakers, guys that turn missed tackles into touchdowns. RB Shaun Wilson has 334 rushing yards on 21 carries, enjoying a coming out party against Kansas last Saturday. QB Anthony Boone isn’t just dinking and dunking, with 35+ yard TD passes to Max McCaffrey, Jamison Crowder and Isaac Blakeney already. Behind a veteran offensive line, the Blue Devils have averaged more than 40 points per game in their first three contests. They hung 48 on Tulane the last time these two teams met (in 2011), and that was a much less explosive offense than the one they have in 2014.
Tulane is 3-0 to the Over in early season play, allowing 38 points to both D-1A foes that they faced (Tulsa and Georgia Tech); gashed both on the ground and through the air. But like Cutcliffe, Tulane head coach Curtis Johnson has found himself some real playmakers on offense this year. RB Sherman Badie is averaging more than nine yards per carry. WR’s Justyn Shackelford and Xavier Rush have caught five TD passes and average more than 20 yards per reception between them. Facing a Duke defense forced to play with freshman at LB and CB, I’m expecting both of these squads to get their fair share of points in this one.