Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 21

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

St. Louis at Milwaukee
The Cardinals look to take advantage of a Milwaukee team that is 0-6 in Yovani Gallardo's last 6 home starts against St. Louis. St. Louis is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135).

Game 951-952: Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 15.547; Cubs (Wood) 14.256
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 953-954: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.341; Pittsburgh (Burnett) 15.229
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+100); Over

Game 955-956: NY Mets at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 14.581; Philadelphia (Cloyd) 14.279
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Over

Game 957-958: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 13.330; Washington (Strasburg) 16.393
Dunkel Line: Washington by 3; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-300); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-300); Under

Game 959-960: St. Louis at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 16.548; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.033
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); Under

Game 961-962: Arizona at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Cahill) 14.898; Colorado (McHugh) 13.776
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Over

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.166; San Diego (Smith) 13.765
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-175); 6
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-175); Under

Game 965-966: Minnesota at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hernandez) 15.106; Oakland (Parker) 14.473
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-240); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+200); Over

Game 967-968: Houston at Cleveland (6:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Clemens) 14.361; Cleveland (Kazmir) 15.637
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-260); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-260); Over

Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 16.174; Detroit (Porcello) 15.225
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Under

Game 971-972: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 15.153; Boston (Buchholz) 16.983
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 973-974: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.835; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 14.442
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 975-976: Texas at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Garza) 15.488; Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.634
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Over

Game 977-978: Seattle at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Saunders) 14.584; LA Angels (Williams) 16.634
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-175); Under

Game 979-980: San Francisco at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 14.641; NY Yankees (Nova) 15.912
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-155); Over

WNBA

Los Angeles at Phoenix
The Sparks look to bounce back from their loss in Game 1 and take advantage of a Phoenix team that is 7-21-1 ATS in its last 29 home games. Los Angeles is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+1 1/2)

Game 659-660: Atlanta at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 104.384; Washington 116.810
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 12 1/2; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-2 1/2); Over

Game 661-662: Los Angeles at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 116.327; Phoenix 114.163
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2; 147
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 161 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+1 1/2); Under

River City SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Michigan +16.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Let's just start with the fact that Iowa shouldn’t be favored by 16.5 over anyone! This is an improved team with HC Kirk Ferenz, but WMU has had success against Iowa (2-0 SU) and against Big 10 teams. WMU played Northwestern tough last week before falling 38-17 and one concern we have is the turnovers from the QB position as VanTubbergen has 5 picks to only 2 TD’s. Iowa beat their in-state rival Iowa State 27-21 last week and is 2-1 on the season, but we think that WMU has the experience and offense to stay close with Iowa. The challenge for the Broncos will be stopping RB Weisman for Iowa, who is averaging 5.0 yds per carry. If the Broncos can keep the turnovers to a minimum, they will be in this game in the 4th quarter.

Carlo Campanella

Michigan State vs. Notre Dame
Play: Michigan State +7

The public and oddsmakers are still grading Notre Dame on last season's 12-1 record. This year's crew is NOT as good on either side of the ball and the inflated line has caused them to open the year at 0-3 ATS. They lost to the only quality opponent they have faced this year, losing 41-30 to Michigan two weeks ago. Now they play an unbeaten 3-0 Michigan State squad that might be better than interstate rival Michigan while winning ALL 3 of their games by 10 points or more. Not only is Michigan State 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS during the last nine games in this series, but this is an especially poor match-up for Notre Dame's offense, which has struggled to run the ball while being held to 96 rushing yards or less in both of their last two games, also against Big Ten foes (96 rushing yards against Michigan & 91 rushing yards against Purdue). This MSU defense is holding foes to just 50 rushing yards per game and an incredibly low 1.8 average yards per rush! With the bigger BIG 10 Michigan State linemen dominating the line of scrimmage, we'll take the points with road Dog MSU, knowing that they're 13-4 ATS on the road following a home win behind HC Dantonio.

Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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WYOMING (-4) over Air ForceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cowboys have held the Fly Boys to an average 18 points per game in the last four meetings of this series so they know how to limit the sometimes-tricky option attack. If they can hold Air Force down to around that same average, this will be a cake walk since the Wyoming offense has scored 34 points or more in its first three games and will be able to hang a similar number against this week against an injured and undersized Air Force defense. Lay the points.
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ARMY (+4) over Wake ForestFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Wake Forest has proven to be one of the worst teams in the nation thus far and a loss here to Army will turn the heat up on the hot seat for head coach Jim Grobe. The Demon Deacons allowed 424 total yards last week in a 21-19 loss to Louisiana Monroe, marking their fifth loss in their last six games dating back to last season. The loss wasn’t as close as the final score represents since UL-Monroe turned the ball over twice and botched two short-range field goal attempts. The new-scheme Wake offense is struggling mightily, gaining 15 rushing yards on 15 attempts in the loss – including just five yards in the second half. Grobe didn’t exactly instill confidence into his team after the loss when he told the media, “We're just a very lethargic, sloppy offensive team right now.” The Black Knights trailed by just seven points late in the third quarter last week against Stanford as 30-point dogs, before falling 34-20. The triple-option offense put up 333 yards against a stiff Cardinal “D” and will find plenty of running room here against a deflated Wake Forest team. Take the generous points.

Allen EastmanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baylor (-28.5) over Louisiana-MonroeSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last year Louisiana-Monroe played some great games against SEC schools. But now no one from the major conferences will be taking them lightly this year. That includes Baylor, which only beat UL-M 47-42 last season. That was a wild game. And the Bears were lucky to escape with a road win there. The Baylor Bears have had one of the best offenses in the country this year, scoring 69 points and 70 points in their two games. I think that they will score at least 55 in this one, and I had this score closer to 56-10 in this one. I thought the line would be in the 30s because of how much Baylor has been scoring. Monroe is also coming off an upset win at Wake Forest last week. And they lost at Oklahoma 34-0 in the opening week. I don't think that the visiting Warhawks have enough defense to slow down Baylor's rested attack. And I don't think the Warhawks have enough offense to keep up in a shootout. Baylor should keep on rolling and will score over 50 points for the fifth time in their last seven games. Lay the points until it gets to -30.

Wunderdog

Louisiana Monroe at Baylor
Pick: Baylor -29

Before RGIII put the Baylor Bears on the map, they had trouble getting the type of athletes to compete in the rugged Big-12. That has all changed now. Upon his departure, most thought the offense would leave with him but Nick Florence had something to say about that. Last year he led the Bears' offense to more yards and more points per game than RGIII di. That shows the fact that the Bears are now getting better athletes. It is now Bryce Petty's turn and all he has done is throw for an unthinkable 16.3 yards per attempt, as the Bears are running and passing to even greater heights. UL Monroe scored 0 at Oklahoma and just 21 points at Wake Forest. They will be hard pressed to produce enough to even make this remotely close. They had a good team last year and gave Baylor fits at home, but the Bears won't be caught off guard this time, and they have them in their house this time. This one looks like a colossal blowout. The Bears are 20-8 ATS in all games the past three seasons including 13-2 ATS at home and 10-1 ATS at home with a total set at 63 or higher. Under head coach Art Briles, Baylor is 19-8 ATS as a favorite and 11-3 ATS in expected shootouts (games with totals set at 63 or higher). Lay the points with Baylor.

Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Idaho at Washington St.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Idaho (0-3) has lost three games in a row to start their season after losing a 45-35 scoring fest at home when hosting Northern Illinois last week. It may be tempting to assume that this will be another high-scoring affair with this Vandals team -- but in their first two road games this season, they oly managed 16 total points in those 120 minutes of play. Furthermore, while Idaho held the Huskies to just 152 passing yards (while surrendering a whopping 350 yards on the ground), the Vandals have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 170 passing yards. Washington (2-1) looks to build off the momentum of their 48-10 victory over Southern Utah as a 21-point favorite -- and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Don't assume that this Mike Leach coached team is all about putting points on the board either as his Cougars team gutted-out a low-scoring 10-7 victory at USC two weeks ago. And while Washington State passed for 410 yards last week, the Cougars have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after accumulating at least 280 yards in the air in their last contest. Take the Under in this one.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SMU vs. Texas A&MFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 79FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NCAA, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. Texas A&M has been involved in some of the highest scoring games this season as it has tallied 83, 93 and 91 points in its first three games. Obviously, all three of those games went over the total and by a wide margin. While this week's posted total does not come close to those earlier scores, it is the highest that the Aggies have seen this season and that is based on those past results. Texas A&M is third in the nation in total offense and 112th in total defense which makes sense after seeing the scoreboard. Coming off a big game against Alabama in which they had to make a huge comeback to tighten the game up, I do not see the Aggies going full throttle on offense here. Additionally, I do not see the defense being as bad as it was last week as SMU is far from the offensive juggernaut that the Crimson Tide are. The Mustangs have played two games and both of their games have gone over the total as well but not by nearly as much. They are ranked 39th in total offense and 84th in total defense which are both fairly average but the difference is that SMU's closing totals were 59.5 and 51.5. Granted, Texas Tech and Montana St. are no Texas A&M but we are seeing an increase of close to four touchdowns in the total from the last game which is an astronomical jump. I think it is way too much of an overadjustment and the way the game is played out will also have a lot to do with it. SMU is still developing as an offense this season, averaging only 27 ppg and while the "Air Raid" offense of coordinator Hal Mumme will eventually find its place, it is not there yet and the Mustangs can ill afford to get into a shootout with the Aggies. On the other side, the Texas A&M defense will face a spread offense against SMU, quite a change of pace from the Crimson Tide's straightforward, balanced attack. "We're back in our comfort zone, playing another spread team," Aggies defensive coordinator Mark Snyder said. That is important in making it easier for preparation. The Under is 13-6 in the Mustangs last 19 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game while the Under is 4-1 in the Aggies last five games following an ATS win.

Joe Gavazzi

Pittsburgh vs. Duke
Play: Duke +4

Following the MNF debacle against Florida St., the Panthers rebounded, with a week of rest, for a 49-27 win against outmanned New Mexico, a game they led 42-6. Now they must take to the road for their first ACC game. They won’t like the hospitality in Durham. This is a Blue Devil team that is changing for the better under 6th year HC Cutcliffe. No longer is this a Duke team who relies on the passing game to come through the back door for a cover. This year the Devils have one the most veteran OL’s in the nation resulting in an improved ground game that averages 187/4.4. Despite being torched by the GT Option last week, you will note that Duke is still firmly entrenched on our list of Defensive Dandies. QB Connette improving with each week as a replacement for QB Boone, must believe the wrong team is favored as we side with the better running game and defense as home underdog.

Sean HiggsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan vs. ConnecticutFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Michigan -17.5FORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We are going to jump right into why I think the Wolverines are going to throttle the Connecticut Huskies this Saturday.
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Let’s start with Connecticut. First, we get them in a real emotional let-down situation. They just faced their old coach and you know these guys wanted to take it to him like they did the year before. It was bad enough they were coming off a home loss to Towson the week before. Ok, maybe they were looking ahead there. But even with their QB Chandler Whitmer passing for 349 yards, they still lost to Maryland who gave them 3 turnovers. When you rush the ball 33 times and gain 34 yards, it is going to be a long afternoon.
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Now we have Michigan coming to town for this out of conference affair. The Wolverines were 35 point favorites at home over the Akron Zips. All Michigan did in that game was come out absolutely flat, and scored a touchdown with under 3 left to take the lead AND needed a defensive stop to just hold on! Well, we aren’t giving them a total pass. They were off a big beating of Notre Dame, but to give up more yards to Akron then the Irish is just terrible.
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But that is exactly why we will back them here laying these points. Off that near upset, do we really think that head-coach Brady Hoke is going to go easy on these guys? Do we really think they are going to be overlooking any team right now? They do have the start of their Big 10 schedule ahead next Saturday. That is a home game vs Minnesota. It isn’t Michigan State or Ohio State or one of their ‘bigger’ rivalries.
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My Final ThoughtsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Yes, Michigan barely eked out a win at home over lowly Akron. Yes, the Wolverines have the opening of Big 10 play next Saturday. No, they will not overlook Connecticut here. Listen. This team barely won last week. That game was home. There isn’t any way that this team is being allowed to come out flat, or to overlook anyone. This is a road game. They are in a spot where they need to make some big plays early and make a statement that last week was just a ‘we were off a big win over ND, playing Akron, and didn’t think it would be close’ type of game. The talent on the Wolverines is head and shoulders above the Huskies. I didn’t think UCONN would be that good this year, and I still don’t. The way Michigan won, and the Huskies let-down vs their ex-coach last week. It makes it an easy call for me to lay the big wood here. Take the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES to take the Huskies behind the wood-shed for a 25+ point beating.

Ray Monohan

Colorado State vs. Alabama
Play: Colorado State +41

No I don’t think we should be on upset watch this week but I think we should expect Alabama to be a little drained this weekend. Plus when you factor in that the coach at Colorado State is a former Saban lieutenant it makes me want to believe that they just might dial it back once the outcome has been determined making the backdoor cover easy to imagine. That same familiarity should also be a little bit of an advantage for the Rams who are strong up front on the offensive line with the entire line returning from last year. Don’t bet the farm but consider this one. Maybe use it in a teaser.

Brandon ShivelyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SMU vs. Texas A&MFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 78FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SMU has the fortunes of coming off a bye week as June Jones and his 'air-raid' offense prepare for a deflated Johhny Footaball team that has had a lethergic defense to start the season. SMU Co-OC (Jason Phillips) was the Co-OC @ Houston under Sumlin so he has some knowledge about Sumlins offense and he should be able to mirror Texas AM somewhat. SMU also brings Hal Mumme in as the passing game coordinator as he in the 'innovator' of the 'Air Raid' attack and SMU should be able to score tonight and keep this game within the posted number, but it will be close. SMU is coming off a bye week, and had Montana State in week 2, so they should be prepared for this game. Texas AM won last year 48-3 and was the first team that ever held a June Jones team without a touchdown. Tex AM gave up 509 yards to Rice in the season opener and 568 to Alabama. I expect the defense to be flat again for this game after the physical game with ' Bama. The Rice/Texas AM game went all the way to 83 total points scored. That was with Manziel out for the first half. Texas AM is averaging 53 PPG now over their first 3 games.SMU defensive line is very inexperienced and that should give Manziel plenty of time to dance around in the pocket. The total opened at 82 and has now dropped to 78.5 and I like this number as Texas AM will not let off the gas in this one, and SMU has 3 experienced wide receivers that can stretch the field and score touchdowns as well. Also, SMU's leading returning tackler from last year is listed as questionable for this game and if he is not 100%, then that is more possible missed tackles and more scoring. Projected score : Texas AM 56 SMU 27
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Colorado State vs. AlabamaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Colorado State +40FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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HC coach McElwain was the OC @ ALA from 08’ to 11’ and has had this game circled for a while, trust me. He has the fortunes of having 9 returning starters to an offense that has been able to move the chains in their first 3 games. We know this is Alabama and that points will be harder to come by, but this is a Big Flat Spot for Alabama as they just one the game that they had been practicing for all summer long, and not to mention a conference game on deck vs. a good Ole Miss team. HC Nick Saban should be calling off the troops in the 4th quarter as there is no need to run up the score in this one. Saban has more respect for McElwain than to try to put up 50+ points. Look for Bama to score 45-48 points and for Colorado St to score 14-17 to keep this game within the posted number. Saban scheduled two games vs Col ST totaling $3million as thank you for s McElwain tenure @ Alabama, so I see a great deal of respect for McElwain. Colorado St has an experienced linebacking core as well as secondary and they should be able to stop Alabama a few times in essence turning some touchdowns into field goals. I totally understand this is Alabama, but is clearly is not a spot for them to be motivated about covering and this is more of a play against Alabama than it is a play on Colorado State, but I will be making a play on Colorado St this Saturday and suggest you do the same.

Alex Smart Sports

Kansas State vs. Texas
Play: Texas -5.5

Alex Smart Sports Comp Selection Kansas State fans have a popular saying: “We own Texas.”The Wildcats are 5-0 against the Longhorns since 2003, including their 42-24 win last season. With that said, how badly do you think Longhorns HC Mack Brown and company want this game. With Texas near collapse with a 1-2 record.. another loss is out of the question. The combination of desperation and frustration Im betting dials up a big effort and translates into a win and cover for the Longhorns vs a over rated Kansas State side . Projected score: Texas 33 Kansas State 24

Steve Merril

Texas State vs. Texas Tech
Play: Texas State +27½

Texas State has a nice scheduling advantage for this game as they come in off a bye. The Bobcats have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and with 15 returning starters remembering their blowout losses to Texas Tech (108-20 combined), this game means something to them. In their last visit to Lubbock, the Bobcats actually led 10-9 at the half. They were driving for another score when they fumbled on the Tech 16-yard line and the game changed on that play as the Red Raiders scored 41 unanswered points over the next 18 minutes of football. The Bobcats have played good pass defense in their first two games albeit against weak opposition. They’ve allowed only 56.8% completions with just 1 TD pass and 2 interceptions. Texas State will get a stiff challenge in this game against the “Air Raid” passing attack of the Red Raiders, but they’ve had two weeks to get ready so they should be well prepared.

Texas Tech is in a flat spot for this game. Their season opener and last week’s game against ranked TCU were both on ESPN. Texas Tech also has a bye on deck so it’s highly likely that they are looking beyond this game. Walk-on QB Baker Mayfield came out of nowhere to play tremendous in the first two games after Texas Tech lost their starting quarterback in the off-season. But Mayfield completed just 21 of his 40 passes against TCU while throwing 1 TD pass and 3 interceptions. Texas State is 5-2 ATS their last seven times as a double digit underdog under HC Dennis Franchione. The Bobcats are in a tremendous scheduling situation to make this a game so we recommend taking the generous points with Texas State in this game on Saturday night.