Red Dog Sports
North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Over 59
GT is led by QB Vad Lee who is from the Triangle area of North Carolina and he will be motivated to put up points against the Tar Heels on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets can run and pass under coach Paul Johnson and GT put up plenty of points in a 66-50 game last year.
UNC has QB Bryn Renner who has plenty of experience under coach Larry Fedora and the Tar Heels like to play fast. This total should be in the 60's. Look for an over on Saturday.
Dave Price
Tennessee +16½
Tennessee hasn't lost any sleep over last week's 59-14 loss at Oregon. This is the game it wants. The Vols were favored to beat Florida last season but suffered their eighth straight defeat in the series. They will be lacking no motivation as they look to bring this lengthy skid to an end. Plus, they will only benefit from stepping on the field with Oregon last week. Florida isn't even on the same planet as Oregon in terms of what it brings to the table offensively. The Gators are averaging just 20.0 ppg behind mediocre play from QB Jeff Driskel. They are coming off a bye but are clearly being overvalued here. We're talking about a team that has been held to 24 points or fewer in 6 of its last 8 games. That kind of scoring production will make it awfully hard to cover such a big number here. Consider that Tennessee has scored at least 17 points in each of its last 3 meetings with Florida. This is a huge rivalry game for the Vols, and I expect them to throw the kitchen sink at the Gators. Teams headed up by Butch Jones are 11-0 ATS all-time after being outgained by 125 or more total yards in their last game. The Gators are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Take the points.
Bill Biles
West Virginia vs. Maryland
Play: Maryland -4½
Maryland has looked much better on the offensive side of the ball than WVU. This is WVU first true test of the year and they wont be able to handle Maryland. C.J Brown and Stefon Diggs will be to much for the Mountaineers in this one.
Jack Jones
Purdue vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -23½
Gary Anderson clearly stepped into a good situation at Wisconsin after leading Utah State to a school-record 11 wins last season. He inherited 14 starters and 52 lettermen from last year’s squad under Bret Bielema. The Badgers have opened 3-0 against the spread with blowout home wins over Massachusetts (45-0) and Tennessee Tech (48-0) before falling in a close one at Arizona State (30-32) as a 7-point underdog last week.
The tradition of a great running game at Wisconsin is continuing under Anderson. The Badgers are averaging 337 rushing yards per game and a ridiculous 8.0 yards per carry. They always have a fresh back as the trio of Melvin Gordon (477 yards, 4 TD, 12.9/carry), James White (297 yards, 2 TD, 6.6/carry) and Corey Clement (251 yards, 3 TD, 8.1/carry) are off to monster seasons. Joe Stave has been solid at quarterback as well, completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 603 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions.
Purdue has been atrocious offensively in opening 1-2 with its only win coming at home against Indiana State (20-14) despite being a 17-point favorite in that contest. The Boilermakers are only averaging 17.0 points and 268.0 total yards per game thus far. They will certainly have a hard scoring against the Badgers, who are allowing just 10.7 points and 264.3 total yards per game.
Wisconsin has won seven straight over Purdue with the last five victories coming by an average of 30.0 points per game. That includes a 38-14 road victory for the Badgers in 2012 as they racked up 645 total yards, which was their second-highest total in school history. Wisconsin is 16-6-1 against the spread in its last 23 home games overall. The Badgers are 7-0 against the number in their last seven meetings with Purdue. Bet Wisconsin Saturday.
Jeff Alexander
Utah State +7
Utah State has enough fire power to trade punches with USC and keep this one within the number. Road underdogs with an incredible offense averaging 450 yards or more per game, provided they averaged 7.25 yards or more in their previous game, are 19-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. Utah State's high-powered offense has made it a covering machine. The Aggies are on a 13-2 ATS run dating back to the start of last season. USC is just 4-12 ATS during the same span. It is also worth mentioning that Utah State is on an 8-0 ATS run following a win by 21 or more points while USC is on a 0-7 ATS slide after a game where it outgained an opponent by 125 or more total yards. The value lies with Utah State.
Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Jose State at MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Spartans are a solid fade based on my 2009 Black Book article called “The Longest Time” which fades teams on the road who enjoyed a winning season last year after having endured losing seasons each of the prior three years. These “Reverse Mission” teams do not handle the rarefied air well after suddenly becoming winners, and San Jose State is no exception coming off an 11-2 campaign. Such teams are 43-61-1 versus the number in these away tilts, and if the hosts are undefeated in addition to coming off a double-digit win, the visitors dip to 7-33 SU and 15-25 ATS. Though first-year HC Ron Caragher has an NFL prospect in QB David Fales, the senior has been running for his life despite an experienced offensive line. Most of the attention directed at the Gophers involves HC Jerry Kill and the epileptic seizures he has suffered either during or immediately after four of his 22 games with Minnesota. He suffered another one last week and was carried off the field on a stretcher – alarmingly the third such occurrence in the last 11 games, meaning that the frequency is increasing. Kill wants to continue coaching and the school has expressed “100% support” for him to remain as Gopher head coach, so it’s certainly not for us to decide. However, it is a shame that Kill’s epilepsy takes the focus off the great job he has done in Minneapolis; in fact, a win here would give the Gophers a 4-0 start for the second consecutive season. No word as to whether Kill will return to the sidelines for this week’s game, but at press time, the game was off the board with Minny QB Phillip Nelson questionable with a hamstring. His backup, Mitch Leidner, was 7 of 8 for 105 yards and rushed 17 times for 64 yards in a relief role against Western Illinois last week. Still, we like Minnesota in this spot, thanks in small part to the fact that the Gopher staff and players have amazingly become almost accustomed to incidents regarding Kill’s condition and therefore keep them from becoming a distraction, and the fact that is a 9:00 AM body clock start time for the Spartans. Gophers golden again this week. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.
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Idaho vs. Washington StateFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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These two teams have combined to post a 2-4 o/u record this season, and I don't see that trend changing on Saturday night.
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Idaho put up a whopping 35 points last week, but still managed to lose by 10 points against an underrated Northern Iliinois squad. Keep in mind, that game was played at the Kibbie Dome, where the Vandals have certainly played with much more of an edge over the years, and are comfortable getting involved in shootouts.
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The Vandals have now allowed at least 40 points in all three games this season, so there's little question what has been emphasized in practice this week. This may look like another beatdown in the making, but I do expect Idaho to play with some pride defensively, and at least slow down the Cougars for stretches. This ultimately amounts to a possible letdown spot for Washington State coming off back-to-back wins, including a shocker at USC (we won with the Cougars in that game).
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Offensively, don't count on Idaho to put up 35 points again on Saturday. Washington State is an underrated defensive squad right now - something I noted in my analysis of my play supporting them at USC two weeks ago. The Cougars return enough talent and experience on the defensive side of the football that they no longer have to rely on putting up 40+ points to have a shot at winning on a weekly basis.
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There will be stretches where we see Washington State move the football at will in this game, but that's certainly being accounted for with this total sitting in the high-50s. Idaho has a good enough passing game to move the chains, but I'm not convinced they'll end many drives with touchdowns.
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With a big home game against Stanford on deck, this has the feel of a 'win and move on' type of game for Mike Leach's Cougars. We may see some early fireworks, but I look for the scoring to settle down once Washington State is able to put the game out of reach.
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Colorado State vs. AlabamaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Colorado StateFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I’m not a big fan of betting on the ‘big ugly underdog’ in college football, but this situation is simply too good to ignore. Alabama has been a pointspread juggernaut throughout the Nick Saban era in every role except one – as a 30+ point favorite over lesser competition.
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The Crimson Tide are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven tries in this pointspread range, including an 0-4 mark last year. Coming off a HUGE win at Texas A&M with their SEC opener against Ole Miss on deck, I’m not expecting an inspired performance from this huge home favorite.
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Colorado State head coach Jim McElwain got the job at Colorado State because of his success as Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator from 2008-2011. He knows Saban’s mentality and his gameplans as well as any coach in the country. ‘Bama is not likely to run up the score to ridiculous proportions against Saban’s buddy, especially with no need for huge margins to impress the pollsters – Alabama is already the clear #1 team in the country.
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And Colorado State’s offensive line is a clear unit of strength this year. A handful of rushing first downs will go a long way towards shortening the game and allowing the Rams to hang within this inflated number.
Larry NessFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee vs. FloridaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: FloridaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Butch Jones era of Tennessee football got off to a strong start, as the Vols won each of their first two games at home against Austin Peay (45-0) and Western Kentucky (52-20). However, Tennessee experienced a rude awakening traveling out west to face No. 2 Oregon last week, getting blown out 59-14. The Vols are currently in the midst of a six-game stretch where they will play five ranked teams, with a visit to No. 19 Florida on tap for this Saturday. The Gators had last weekend off and likely needed to “cool off” from an extremely frustrating 21-16 loss at Miami back on Sep 7, in which the Gators repeatedly shot themselves in the foot by committing five turnovers!
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Florida has dominated this once-competitive series, winning EIGHT straight (6-2 ATS), the last six by an average margin of 19.0 PPG (smallest margin has been 10 points). Tennessee had a situational edge in last year’s matchup, catching Florida off a HUGE 20-17 road win at Texas A&M and on the road again at Knoxville. In comparison, Tennessee was coming off a 51-13 home win over then-FCS foe Georgia St. The Vols led 14-10 at the half but Muschamp made the necessary adjustments and the Gators cruised to a 37-20 win (outgained Tennessee 399-109 in yards during the second half).
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The set up is much different this year, as Tennessee is playing back-to-back road games this year (off that shellacking at Oregon), while the Gators are off a much-need bye week, after ‘handing’ a game to the hated-Hurricanes two Saturdays ago.
Florida QB Driskel came under heavy criticism at Miami (had two INTs & a fumble) but he did throw for a career-best 291 yards vs the ‘Canes. Let me remind all that Driskel accounted for 300 total yards at Tennessee last year (219 yards passing with two TDs plus 81 yards rushing) and the Gators ran for a whopping 336 yards (7.8 YPC) at Knoxville.
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Tennessee’s defense was absolutely shredded at Oregon (59 points and 687 yards) and let me point out that last year’s “D” allowed 35.7 PPG on the season. That includes them allowing 43.3 PPG over the Vols’ first seven SEC games, before holding the pathetic 2-10 Kentucky Wildcats to just 17 points. "Florida is not going to feel sorry for (us)," Butch Jones said. "We knew at this juncture of the season, against the most difficult schedule in the history of college football, it's going to take perseverance and it's going to take resilience."
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I couldn’t agree more and fully expect the Gators to at least match the 37 points they were able to score last year in Knoxville and Tennessee’s offense won’t be able to keep up. Lay it with the Gators
John Ryan
Arkansas at Rutgers
Play: Arkansas
The simulator shows a high probability that Rutgers will win this game by five or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-4 ATS mark since 2002 and is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Play against any team (ARKANSAS) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses and is now facing an opponent in the first month of the season and was a bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games. 20 of the 32 winning plays have covered by 7 or more points. SIM shows that Rutgers will gain between 110 and 150 rushing yards. This is very good news for backers of Rutgers as they are 7-0 ATS the past three seasons when gaining this range of yards on the ground. Take Rutgers.
Tony George
Utah State +7
I have been saying this to anyone who would listen to me for the past 2 years, Lane Kiffen is not a good coach and in all honesty USC is not a good football team with a clearly bad situation at QB this year. Lane Kiffen is a coordinator at best, just like his daddy, and has no business being a head coach for a school like USC. Washington State came into LA and waxed them with a bad defense, and USC has struggled to perform in every game. The Aggies were an 11-2 team last year and ranked, and return 15 starters from that team. Yes their head coach bolted fro Wisconsin but Coach Wells has been there awhile and QB Keeton for Utah State is a veteran QB who commands an offense putting up 49 ppg and over 550 yards of offense.
USC is laying a number here based on the fact they waxed a deplorable BC team last week, I put absolutely no stock in that win. Oddsmakers have by posting a line that should be -3 at best. Utah State in my opinion is the better team, capable of putting up points fast and should hang within this number, and an outright win but this experienced Aggie team is not out of the question. I like the Live Dog in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Michigan State/Notre Dame Under 43
Michigan State's defense has looked extremely good through the first three weeks off the season. They have held opponents to an average of just 12 points per game. They face a Notre Dame team whose scoring average is inflated because the Irish have played three soft defenses. The Spartans scoring average is also inflated due to a 55-point performance last week against Youngstown State.
The Irish defense is much better than the story their statistics tell. They let Michigan control the pace of the game in week two, and ended up getting into a shootout. The Spartans offensive attack is much slower than the Wolverines since they are a very run-heavy team. Notre Dame has been solid against the run, holding opponents to just 113 yards per game on an average of 30 carries. Since the Irish run defense is so good, I expect to see a lot of time killing drives from Michigan State which will keep this game under the total.
Jim Feist
Ball State vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Ball State -9½
Ball State (2-1) continues to be undervalued, on a 16-6 ATS run. The Cardinals are also 38-15 ATS in their last 53 road games. This is one of the best passing offensive in the nation, averaging 39.3 points and 332.7 yards passing (13th). They take on an Eastern Michigan squad that is one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging 17 ppg. The Eagles are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 home games. And when these teams meet the Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Eastern Michigan.
Chip Chirimbes
North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech
Play: North Carolina +7
These too powerful offenses set all kinds of ACC records last year when Georgia Tech beat the Tar Heels 68-50 in the highest scoring game in conference history. There were 16 touchdowns scored and almost 1,100 yards in total offense. The Yellow Jackets will continue with their triple-option offense that has run for 356 yards per contest in it's first two games. They have scored 108 points in their two wins while allowing only seven points on defense. Still, Carolina has enough to keep this one close.
Steve Janus
Michigan Wolverines -17½
This is the perfect spot to jump on the Wolverines after a poor showing at home last week against Akron. While I was surprised the final was as close as it was, I wasn't shocked to see Michigan suffer a letdown after that huge win at home over Notre Dame.
Expect the Wolverines to bounce back in a big way against a Connecticut team that has suffered a serious drop off from last season. The Huskies have little to nothing on offense and defensively they aren't the same after losing four players to the NFL. Personally, I think the players have already given up on head coach Paul Pasqualoni and they aren't going to want anything to do with a more talented and motivated squad from Michigan.
The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 13-6-1 in their last 20 non-conference matchups. Connecticut on the other hand is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games, 1-5-1 in their last 7 home games and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 following an ATS loss.