The Real Animal Sports
Florida Atlantic +3.5
I was shocked Middle Tennessee State struggled so badly last week with Memphis at home before barely winning 17-15. At the time I figured turnovers were the culprit. But the box score reveals a 350-284 edge for Memphis on the road. That is unheard of. The Tigers lost the previous week to Duke at home 28-14. Entering the game at Middle Tennessee State, Memphis was 9-41 SU in their previous 50 games including 2-22 on the road. Their defense last year allowed 33 points or more in their first five road games. So it was shocking to see the Blue Raiders only put up 17-points at home. Now MTSU is a 3 ½-point road favorite at Florida Atlantic? The Owls are 3-0 ATS despite starting out on the road for three games. Last week they got their first win as a 12-point underdog in convincing fashion with a 28-10 upset over South Florida. MTSU is 0-3 ATS so far this year and in the last two weeks have been exposed defensively. They allowed 377 passing yards at North Carolina and in their last two games have yielded 314 rushing yards including a 180-60 deficit on the ground against Memphis at home. Something is up with this team because although they finished 8-4 last year, the Blue Raiders were outscored 28.0-26.6 on average and didnt get to a bowl game. MTSU QB Logan Kilgore has a 2-4 ratio of touchdowns to picks in three games. FAU under Coach Carl Pelini is now 11-2 ATS in their last 11.
OC Dooley
Arkansas / Rutgers Under 44
It was a little more than one year ago when the Arkansas program was put into a sudden tailspin after former head coach Bobby Petrino became embroiled in an off-the-field controversy that forced the school administration to go against the will of the fans fire him. With a new leader on the sidelines 2012 became forgetful for the Razorbacks who suffered a myriad of upset losses including one versus today’s opponent. Rutgers gained a whopping 525 yards in last year’s upset which has had the Hogs DEFENSE circling this particular encounter on the calendar. For those that watch this late afternoon ESPN televised encounter keep an eye out for Arkansas senior defensive end Chris Smith who has a share of the national lead with 4-and-a-half SACKS of opposing signal callers already. Smith is part of an Arkansas stop-unit that has a current NUMBER SIX national ranking in total defense (with the help of last week’s gem where the Hogs allowed only “three” points). Adding to the luster of this total is that both QUARTERBACKS are dealing with injury. The status of Rutgers signal caller Gary Nova (concussion) is up in the air while Arkansas leader Brandon Allen (shoulder) has been listed as “doubtful”. Here is a 73-PERCENT SYSTEM (43-16 the past decade with a total between 42’-and-49 points) which plays teams like Arkansas after allowing 125-or-less rushing yards in three consecutive games UNDER the total, against an opponent who just gained at least 5-and-a-half yards per rush in the prior outing. Here is an UNDEFEATED three-year totals angle (money line between +3/-3) which sees Rutgers “8-0” UNDER the total
Wunderdog Sports Free Pick
Atlanta at Chicago
Pick: Chicago +130
The Atlanta Braves won here yesterday, but most of their damage this season has come at home where they are 52-22 on the season. Despite the win last night, they remain under .500 when taking to the road. That winning percentage on the road does not get much better vs. a losing team where they are just 21-18 as a road favorite, and a negative return on the season. Cubs' starter, Travis Wood, has out-pitched Kris Medlen this season. The Braves have not been answering the bell lately when facing good pitching, as they are just 1-4 in their last five vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15. This dog has some legs, and a bite as well. Play on the Cubs.
RJ Robbins
Colorado State vs. Alabama
Play: Colorado State +39
Let's keep this simple- Alabama is going to win but how much? They are coming off paying back Texas AM and have Ole Miss on deck. Saban doesn't run up the score very often and don't look for him to embarrass his former OC.
Rocketman
Michigan vs. Connecticut
Play: Michigan -19
The Michigan Wolverines travel to Connecticut to take on the Huskies on Saturday night. Michigan is 3-0 on the season while Connecticut comes in with an 0-2 record overall this year. Michigan is 4-0 ATS last 3 years as a favorite of 10 1/2 to 21 points. Connecticut is 2-8 ATS last 3 years in non-conference games. Michigan is scoring 42.7 points per game overall this year. Connecticut is allowing 32.5 points per game overall this season. Michigan is 5-0 ATS last 5 games against a team with a losing record. Michigan is 5-1 ATS last 6 games after an ATS loss. Michigan is ranked #14 in the nation right now and Devin Gardner will have a huge day here against Connecticut. We'll recommend a small play on Michigan tonight!
Joseph D'Amico
Kansas State vs. Texas
pLAY: Kansas State +7
Numbers, stats, and more numbers support the K State side here. The Wild cats are 6-0 ATS their L6 meetings with the Longhorns. QB, Jake Waters has tallied 673 YP and 4 TD's. Texas is going to be without the bulk of their receiving corps as WR, Johnson and TE, Daniels. Texas has lost and failed to cover their L2. K State will cover here. Be sure to play it strong.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. ANGELS -1½ +123 over Seattle
We’ve been fading Joe Saunders for the past of couple of months now and we see no reason to stop now. The story remains the same regarding Saunders in that he can’t get right-handers out and he can’t get anyone out on the road. Saunders has been tagged for 25 hits over his last 13.1 innings. Overall, he’s given up 226 hits in 176 frames (BAA of .314) and comes into this start with an ugly 1.62 WHIP on the year. His WHIP over his last five starts is 2.02, meaning over his past 26 innings, he’s been pitching with an average of two men on base every inning. Saunders also has a staggering OPS split of .451 vL, .912 vR). This guy is batting practice out there and we can assure you that the infielders and outfielders are pretty sick of having to go out there for 45 minutes every half inning while Saunders labors through every batter he faces. Saunders is also walking more batters than ever and it’s not because he’s lost his control, it’s because he’s afraid to throw strikes.
Jerome Williams has posted a 3.44 over his past six starts. He’s had one bad outing over that stretch and that came at hitter friendly Toronto. Williams has walked just six batters over his past 40 innings while striking out 27 over that same span. More notable is that Williams’ is keeping everything down in the strike zone. He has an elite 50% groundball rate on the year and an even more elite 61% rate since being inserted into the starting role full time. Williams is pitching with more confidence and effectiveness now than ever before and chances are he’s going to get some decent run support here. The bottom line, however, is that everyone is going off on Saunders these days and the Halos figure to follow suit.
Line Catchers
Arkansas State vs Memphis
Play: Arkansas State -4
With a weak football slate this weekend, you’re probably thinking, ‘Arkansas Gambler, have you lost your mind with this pick?’ Not really. Once this hit the board it was a game I immediately circled. Arkansas State (2-1) comes into this game on 9 days rest after a Thursday night win over Troy last week. Memphis returns home after a heartbreaker against in-state rival Middle Tennessee State. This is expected to be an offense versus defense kind of game, and I have to strongly side with the ASU Red Wolves. This is a team ranked 9th in the nation in rushing yards and 42nd in scoring. This team can put up points in a hurry and racked up more than 400 yards against Auburn in Week 2. In their other two games they had at least 500 yards total. As for Memphis (0-2), I believe that defense is overrated right now. They’ve played one decent offense, Duke, and I think I use decent loosely. Duke, a team that only managed 14 against Georgia Tech, score 28 on the road to beat Memphis and threw for nearly 300 yards. In the last three years, Arkansas State is 6-1 ATS as a road favorite, and 12-3 ATS off a conference win. The last time Arkansas State played at Memphis, it left a 47-3 winner. I see this game as ARKANSAS STATE 33 MEMPHIS 21