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Louisville vs. Florida InternationalFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Florida InternationalFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Huge game for the Panthers as a 1-2 start has the season already in danger of slipping away. FIU head coach Mario Cristobal has officially issued an MIA for his highly touted defense, one that is allowing 75 YPG more this season that last (with 10 returning starters). Fortunately for the super Mario brother, he brings an 8-2 ATS record as a home dog into today’s fray, including six straight covers. Louisville blew a seemingly insurmountable 36-7 halftime lead versus North Carolina on Saturday and had to fight off a 4th-and-goal play from the Cards’ 4-yard line to seal the 5-point win over the Tar Heels. Now the Redbirds take to the road for the first time in 2012 with revenge on their minds from a 24-17 upset loss at home to the Panthers last year. Unbeaten Louisville owns some spotless stats – 3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 3-0 ITS – and has held two foes to season-low yards. But much like a lights-out high class call girl, everything looks good except for the price. Turn off the red light… we’re biting one more time with these Cats. We recommend a 1-unit play on Florida International.
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Michigan at Notre Dame
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Notre Dame is finally off to a 3-0 start to a college football season and looked magnificent in their destruction of then No. 10 Michigan State last Sunday Night in front of a national television audience. The topic this week is whether the Fighting Irish can take the state of Michigan by storm and defeat both Big-10 powers. A lot of that potential will rest in the how the total for this game turns out.
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The biggest advantage certainly for No. 15 Notre Dame against Michigan is that they are at home and will playing in another evening nationally televised event. Michigan is the No. 17 ranked team, but the mystic of playing at Notre Dame Stadium is not near as intimidating as decades past. However, the Irish will want to continue their winning ways and lay a big win on Michigan to begin the reinstatement of that mystic that once surrounding great Irish teams long past.
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Problem is, as I see it, that Notre Dame is still at least two years out from establishing themselves as perennial Top-10 powerhouse. In addition to having Michigan thsi week, they still have to face No. 9 Stanford October 13, then travel to Norman to ace No. 6 Oklahoma, and then only the final week of the regular season travel to Los Angeles to face USC. I am not saying they will lose this game and I will outline in great detail how I see this game unfolding.
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The total for this game is opening up at 51 points, which is a bit higher than I had expected after the Irish held MSU to just three points this past week. The Irish offensive stats are mediocre at best when compared to the national offensive powers, yet their defense ranks eighth allowing 10.0 points per game. Michigan can run the ball ranking 46th nationally averaging 192.3 rushing yards per game and rank 77th allowing 26.3 points per game.
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Breaking down the offensive stats, Michigan is averaging 7.0 yards-per-play while notre Dame is averaging just 5.3 yards-per-game. Points per play (PPP) stats can be very useful ratio when looking at matchups. I higher rating shows that a team is able to generate big plays more often, while teams with lower ratios are ones that need to establish long time consuming drives or simply do not have the big play making personnel on their unit.
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Michigans PPP ratio is a solid 0.593 meaning that on average every play run will contribute about six tenths of a point on the scoreboard. Notre Dame?s PPP is just 0.413 meaning that every play run translates to less than a ? point on the scoreboard. Over the course of a game where 60 plays can run, it gives Michigan a big time advantage in this game.
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What this sets up is a solid ball control offensive game plan for both teams. Michigan has the personnel to generate ball control types of sequences, which in turn will open up the vertical passing routes. I do believe that the Irish secondary will be able to defend these play action routes, but it will still stretch their defense and allow Michigan to use power running between the tackles.
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Notre dame is coming off a very strong defensive performance allowing just three points to the Spartans. Notre Dame is a solid 8-1 UNDER after allowing 14 points or less in their last game in games played spanning the past three seasons. Take the UNDER.
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Utah vs. Arizona StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Arizona StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Here's a very interesting matchup. The Sun Devils fell apart late in the 2011 campaign which led to the departure of Dennis Erickson as head coach and the arrival of his successor Todd Graham. On the other side, Utah finished last year with something of a flourish which led some folks to pick them for the national Top 25 this year. But the early part of this season has seen things change dramatically as Utah is banged up with numerous injuries and has already been upset by in-state rival Utah State. The Utes did get a win last week over BYU, but for some reason they just seem to have the Cougars' number. As for Arizona State, they have played far better than anyone expected. The Sun Devils sit at 2-1 with their only loss coming last week on the road against a very good Missouri squad. The biggest improvement for ASU has been on defense as the Sun Devils are giving up less than 300 yards per game which is a massive improvement over last year's pathetic stop unit. And considering how weak Utah's offense has looked this year, it's hard to imagine the Utes scoring too many points on the road against an ASU crowd that is suddenly excited about football again. And remember...even last year when Utah was arguably the better team, the Sun Devils still scored a VERY easy win over Utah AT UTAH. ASU is definitely worth a look here.
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South Florida Bulls -9
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The South Florida Bulls are coming off a bad 13-23 home loss to Rutgers. As a result, they are undervalued heading into this contest with MAC opponent Ball State. I'll gladly take advantage and back a Bulls team that I believe easily wins this game by double-digits.
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I picked South Florida to win the Big East this season due to all the talent they had coming back this year. I'm not backing down from that prediction. The Bulls simply gave the game away to Rutgers, committing four turnovers. After playing last Thursday, they have had a couple extra days to get things straightened out in practice and prepare for Ball State.
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South Florida beat Ball State 37-7 at home last year as a 20-point favorite. It outgained the Cardinals 519-225 for the game behind 359 passing yards and a touchdown from QB B.J. Daniels. After winning by 30 points at home last year against this same team, there's no doubt the Bulls should be able to go on the road and win by 10 or more.
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Ball State is giving up huge numbers defensively to the likes of Eastern Michigan, Clemson and Indiana. They have yielded averages of 39.0 points and 483 total yards per game against those three teams. That includes 327 yards through the air, and South Florida is averaging 296 passing yards, so Daniels is in line for another big game against this Ball State defense for a second straight year.
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The Bulls tend to bounce back nicely after a game where they lost the turnover differential badly. South Florida is 9-1 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992. I look for ball security to be a focal point leading up to this game after giving the ball away four times against Rutgers.
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This play falls into a system that is 51-19 (72.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on a road team (S FLORIDA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games.
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The Cardinals are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games. Ball State is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. South Florida is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. MAC opponents. The Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Bet South Florida Saturday.
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Arizona vs. OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 78½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Lot of points here but for good reason. Arizona has put up 56+ points in their last two games while Oregon is averaging 54. While neither team has had a game with a total this high so far this season, neither team has faced an opponent with an offense that can keep up. I'll go with the over as I expect 80+ points on Saturday night.
Wunderdog
Wyoming at Idaho
Pick: Wyoming +2.5
The Idaho Vandals opened the season with a 20-3 loss at home to Eastern Washington. It became pretty evident after that game that this was going to be a painful year. Idaho won just twice all last year, and will be hard pressed to match that total this year. The running game is non-existent, and that puts the heat on Dominique Blackman. He has not responded as he has thrown five INTs already on the season. Wyoming played above the line vs. Texas, and then lost a tough one by 3 points to a good Toledo team. Last week they too fell to a non-FBS team 24-22 to Cal-Poly. The process of getting to 0-3 for both of these teams have taken a different route. There is more competitiveness from this Cowboys’ team, and more upside. They have shown the ability to do more with the ball, covering four of their last five on the road. Idaho has not responded well off a loss, as they are 14-29-1 ATS following a setback in their last 44. In their last 15 home games after a big loss by 28+ points, the Vandals are just 3-12 ATS. Play on Wyoming.
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Vanderbilt +15.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Each of these teams cruised last week with Georgia rolling up a balanced 723 yards in a 56-23 win vs. Florida Atlantic. It means their high powered attack is a member of the 200 Club averaging 47 points and 518 yards. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt was cruising 58-0 against Presby as (-37). Number to note is the 410-47 overland edge and the fact they allowed the Blue Hose just 149 yards. Road dogs off shut out wins are highly dangerous animals. This Vandy defense is allowing just 13 points and 248 yards. Just ask South Carolina how good they are. Whether it's Rodgers or Carta-Samuels at the controls, this team has the offensive ability and defense to make this more competitive than the price indicates.
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Oregon State +7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon State, which hasn't played since upsetting Wisconsin Sept. 8, will be chomping at the bit to get back on the field. With so much time to prepare, I like its chances of upsetting the Bruins. Oregon State has either won or lost by 3 points or less in 3 of the last 4 meetings in this series. If it isn't able to get the job done, the points should come in handy as the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Plus, the Beavers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games. Other than a 6-point win over Nebraska, UCLA hasn't beaten anyone of note. It will have a tough time running away from a team that has had so much extra time to gear up for this game.
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USC Trojans -16FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The last thing the Trojans want to do is let Stanford beat them twice. The season is still young, and they aren't about to quit after one loss. I expect USC to be motivated, and it will take its frustrations out on a Cal team it has owned. The Trojans have won 8 straight against the Golden Bears by an average of 18.5 points and have gone 6-2 ATS in these contests. USC has won the last 3 meetings by 27, 34 and 21 points, respectively. The Trojans are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss. The Golden Bears are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Lay the points.
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Michigan vs. Notre DameFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MichiganFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Notre Dame’s 20-3 win at Michigan State gave them the team’s first 3-0 start since the 2002 season and its first win over a top-10 team since it beat Michigan back in 2005. The Irish won their first eight games back in that 2002 season but the Irish stumbled to a 3-2 finish, including a 28-6 loss in the Gator Bowl to NC St. Notre Dame’s ranking of No. 11, marks the school’s best since the 11th-ranked Irish lost 41-14 to LSU in the Sugar Bowl (2006 season). Michigan was ranked No. 8 in the preseason but was ‘spanked’ by then-No. 2 Alabama (now No. 1) on the season’s opening weekend, 41-14. The Wolverines have beaten Air Force 31-25 and UMass 63-13 since that initial loss and enter this game ranked 18th. I’ll argue that we don’t know all that much about either of these two team right now. Anyone really impressed with Notre Dame’s 50-10 win over Navy in Ireland, after Navy lost 34-7 at Penn St? The Irish needed a late 4th-quarter drive and a 27-yard FG with seven seconds left to edge Purdue, 20-17. Is Purdue on anyone’s ‘radar’ this year? Then we have the win at East Lansing. I don’t want to diss a Notre Dame defense which has allowed only 30 points through three games but Michigan St is a mess offensively. You may remember the Spartans dominated the yardage ‘war’ against Boise St back on August 31 yet won only 17-13. That’s the same Boise St team that at home on its famed “blue turf,” could score an offensive TD against BYU Thursday night. I have just as many question marks regarding Michigan but to say the least, this is an underdog series. How much of an underdog series? The ‘dog is 24-4 ATS going all the way back to 1978! The Wolverines have won three in a row against the Irish and FIVE of the last six. Denard Robinson was a backup his freshman year in 2009, when Tate Forcier threw a TD pass with 11 seconds left to lead Michigan to a 38-34 victory. Robinson became the starter in 2010, when he set a school record with 502 total yards and scored on a TD run with 27 seconds left to lead Michigan to a 28-24 win. Last season, there were two seconds on the clock when Robinson threw a TD pass to cap a furious Michigan rally and give the Wolverines a 35-31 victory. Michigan scored 28 fourth-quarter points to rally from a 24-7 deficit. I just don’t want to bet that Notre Dame has found a way to slow down Robinson, this time around. Take the points.
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Michigan Wolverines +6
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Notre Dame wants this game badly, but it would not be wise to lay the points with the Irish. That's because Michigan has had their number. The Wolverines have won each of the last three and five of the past six meetings.
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The last three meetings have been close with the Wolverines winning each by four points. With another close game likely, I'll gladly take the points. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and the Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Looking back further, we find that the underdog is on a 21-5 ATS run in this series.
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The big difference in the series recently has been Michigan QB Denard Robinson. He set a school record with 502 total yards of offense in the 2010 victory. He was back at it last year with 446 yards of offense and four touchdowns.
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Even if Notre Dame is able to end its losing streak against Michigan, there's a good chance it won't win this game by more than the posted number. Michigan has been looking for a chance to make a statement since getting embarrassed by Alabama, and I believe it makes it here. Take the points.
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Louisiana Tech vs. IllinoisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Louisiana Tech +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisiana Tech is on a nine-game winning streak and have shown that they can play with the 'big boys' and have won nine straight on the road as well. Illinois has had issues with their injured quarterback but a bigger factor may be that they open their Big-Ten season next week host Penn State and they have failed the last three seasons before that opener. Tech's up-tempo offense is too much for Illinois to handle as the Bulldogs average 83 plays a game.
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Air Force vs. UNLVFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UNLV +10½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Opening conference game for these Mountain West schools. Air Force has defensive troubles giving up 37 ppg and the Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September. UNLV plays hard for Coach Bobby Hauk despite few wins and they have been undervalued by oddsmakers at home: The Rebels are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. The home team is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings, so grab the home field in this conference clash. Play UNLV!
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OKLAHOMA -14.5 over Kansas State: Great scheduling spot for the Sooners in this one. Oklahoma opened the year with a lack lust win vs UTEP and then they came back the next week and put a 63-13 hurtin' on FCS foe Florida A&M. The Sooners then had a week to prepare for this game and they have another bye on deck, so they will be fully focused for their Big 12 opener. The Sooners are usually up for their Big 12 home openers as they are 13-0 SU in them and have outscored opponents by 22.6 ppg in the process. The Sooners have also won their 14 home games against ranked opponents by an average of 27.4 points since Stoops took over the program in 1999. Despite their early struggles vs UTEP, this is a very good Oklahoma squad that has an excellent shot at winning the National Title. Landry Jones is rated as the best QB in the Big 12 and he has had 2 very good games in his career vs Kansas State. Landry has hit 61 of 84 passes (73%)for 799 yards with 9 TD's and just 2 INT's in his 2 games vs them. Last year he threw for 505 yards and 5 TD's and could have another big game in this one. Kansas State has played well defensively this year, but they are suspect in the secondary as they have allowed 251 ypg through the air, which is 83rd in the country. Offensively the Wildcats have been really good, but they haven't played any defense of note. They did put up 52 points vs Miami, but the Canes defense has been horrible overall, so I don't put much stock in that. They will not do that vs this defense. The Sooners rate as one of the top defensive teams in the nation. They are loaded at every position on this side of the ball and should control Klein like they did last year, in which he hit just 8 of 16 passes for 58 yards. The Sooners have had very little press on them this year and I feel they need to make a statement to get people talking about them as serious National Title contenders. They may not win by 41 like last year, but I fully expect them to take this one by at least 21 points. KEY TREND--- Oklahoma is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games before BB road games.
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Eastern Michigan/ Michigan State Over 47: In the last 5 meetings between these teams, at least 47 points have been scored in all 5. Michigan State is off a bad offensive showing vs the Irish and you can bet they will be looking to get back on track before the big 10 season starts. This is a team that the Spartans really score well against as they have averaged 49.6 ppg vs them in the last 5 meetings. Last week the Spartans got a mere 50 yards on the ground vs a tough Irish front 7, but should have no problems getting back on track vs an Eastern Michigan squad that has allowed 312 ypg on the ground so far. State will get that running game going and then that will open up the throwing lane for what should be big plays. The Spartan defense is one of the best around, but EMU did put up 16 points on a tough Purdue defense last week and should be good for DD in this one as well. This has the feel of a 42-10 win by the Spartans as these teams put at least 50 points on the board.
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GEORGIA TECH -14 over Miami: The Canes have been a mess defensively this year and facing this vaunted Yellow Jackets attack is not a cure for them to get any better. Miami had the whole offseason to prepare for Boston College, yet they allowed that popgun attack to put up 527 yards in the game. Miami then went on to allow Kansas State 498 total yards and an FCS team Bethune Cookman 355 yards, including 233 yards on the ground. Now this sorry defense that is ranked 105 th in the nation vs the run must take on Georgia Tech’s triple option attack that has put up 374 ypg (6.9 ypc) and they must now do it without starting LB Denzel Perryman, who was 2nd on the team in tackles for loss last year. Are you kidding me? This Georgia Tech team will run all over Miami in this one. LB play is huge when tacking on an option team and Miami has now lost 2 starters from last year to injury from that group. On the other side of the ball, Miami has had a solid offense, but this Tech defense is very underrated, as they come in allowing just 288 ypg so far. Miami relies on their run game to get things going and they do average 154 ypg so far, but Tech allows just 113 ypg and I feel they can shut down the Miami run game and make Stephen Morris make plays. Morris hasn’t been asked to win a game just yet and I don’t feel he will be up to the task here, especially behind a suspect OL. Really a bad spot for the Canes here as they are playing their third road game in 4 weeks and GT has revenge after losing the last 3 in the series , by at least 17 points in each. Look for Tech to kick this team when they are down with a big 17+point win.
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POWER ANGLE PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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FLORIDA STATE -14 over Clemson: I have been high on Florida State this year and fully expect them to have a shot at the National Title. Their defense is awesome as they have allowed just 3 points total in their first 3 games. Don’t get fooled by the lack of competition. This defense is one of the best in the nation and they will show it by dominating the Clemson Tigers ad their young inexperienced OL. The Tigers are balanced offensively as they average 219 ypg on the ground and 298 ypg through the air, but I feel the Noles, with the best D-Line in the nation, will be able to make the Tigers one dimensional by taking away the run. FSU has allowed just 33.7 ypg on the ground on a mere 1.2 ypc. Clemson on defense wasn’t all that good last year and haven’t been that great this year. They come in allowing 368 ypg, including 180 ypg on the ground. The Tigers rate as one of the worst D-Lines in the ACC and will have problems slowing down this FSU squad that has run for 279 ypg so far this year. FSU may have rung up some great numbers vs weak opponents, but make no mistake this is a talented team that will make a serious run at the National Title. Last week the Noles had revenge on their minds vs the Deacons and this week they get revenge #2 after losing 35-30 last year to the Tigers. Florida State is the best team in the ACC and will make another statement by blowing out a good Tigers squad. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Clemson Tigers are 0-29 ATS in their last 29 SU losses if they are off a win of 6 or more and are taking on a team that is seeking revenge.
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USC/ California Over 58.5: I’ll admit it. Last week I was wrong about this California offense. I didn’t thank that Maynard and company could put up points on the Ohio State Buckeyes. Well they did. Cal put up 512 yards on the vaunted Buckeyes defense and they were very balanced in doing so, running for 224 yards and throwing for 288 yards. Teams just don’t put up that kind of offense on an Ohio State defense. Cal did and they could put up big numbers in this one as well. Last week the Trojans played pretty good defense vs Stanford, but that is a different Stanford offense without Andrew Luck running the show. Now, two weeks ago USC took on an offensive minded Syracuse squad and they allowed 455 yards and 29 point in that game, so I fully expect Cal to put some points on the board in this one. On the other side the Trojans struggled on offense last week, but Stanford does have a very good defense and Matt Barkley rarely has two bad games in a row. USC did put up 460 ypg and 45.5 ppg in their first two games of the year before weaker defenses and Cal certainly falls into that category. That was the one thing I got right last week in the Cal game was their defense. The Bears defense has struggled this year to the tune of 411 ypg allowed (83rd) and 32.2 ppg (96th), plus they are 88th in the Nation vs the pass, allowing 288 ypg. Matt will certainly bounce back vs this defense. USC has put up at least 30 points vs Bears in the last 3 meeting and should hit around 40 in this one, while the Bears should be good for no less than 25 of their own. This game should easily hit the 60’s.
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Vanderbilt/ Georgia Under 51: Gonna take the Under here as I expect both defenses to come to play. Georgia has had defensive suspensions this year, but they are still one of the best defenses in the SEC and really you don't need a superb defense to slow down this Vanderbilt squad and Northwestern can attest to that. The Cats have a bad defense, but allowed Vandy just 13 points and 318 yards. Vanderbilt also struggled vs South Carolina's tough defense the week before. The Commodores did but up 58 last week, but that was vs FCS foe Presbyterian. The defense for Vanderbilt has been tough as they allowed just 13 to South Carolina and 23 to a good Wildcat offense and I feel they will do enough to keep Georgia from going buck wild in this one. The Dawgs offense has averaged 47.3 ppg on the year but have yet to play any team with a defense and I don't feel their points will come all that easily in this one. Last year these teams did put up 61 points, but in the previous 5 meeting there was no more than 46 points scored in a game. I expect no more than 46 points in this one either.
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Cleveland vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas CityFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Royals continue their series with the Indians after winning 6-3 on Friday night. Kansas City gets another crack at Ubaldo Jimenez who is struggling this season. He is 9-16 with a 5.43 ERA in 30 starts. The righty is 4-11 with a 6.95 ERA in 17 road starts walking 56 while striking out only 78. Jimenez has faced the Royals twice this season giving up 4 runs in each of those games in five and six innings respectively. The Royals are 35-41 at home where they are hitting right around .280 as a unit.
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Will Smith isn't exactly doing much better. He is 5-8 with a 5.08 ERA in 14 starts for the Royals. But Smith has allowed just 7 runs and 23 hits in his last three starts. The southpaw beat the Indians back in May after giving up 2 runs and four hits in six innings of work. Cleveland is 15-32 in games started by left-handed pitchers while hitting .232 in those games and scoring less than 4 runs per game. The Royals’ bullpen has an ERA right around 3.00 despite giving up a few runs on Friday. The Royals have won 8 of 13 meetings between the two teams, and we expect them to win again on Saturday night.