Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Louisiana Tech vs. Illinois
Play: Louisiana Tech +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
LA. Tech fits a nice system here tonight that plays on teams who scored 50 or more in their last game and allowed 50 or more in the game prior to that, vs an opponent that comes in off a win of 7 or more. This system has cashed 29 of 41 times long term. Tech is averaging over 600 yards on offense and has covered 10 of the last 13 road games. They are also 7-1 to the spread off 2 or more wins. Illinois is just 1-4 to the spread vs WAC Conference teams and may very well get beat here as LA. Tech was a solid play according to the computer simulations. Look for LA. Tech to get the cash tonight.
Joseph D'AmicoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LSU vs. AuburnFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: LSUFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The 2nd ranked LSU Tigers are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS while the AUBURN Tigers are 1-2 SU and 0-3 against the number. LSU's offense is an SEC leading 269 YPG with 12 TDs behind QB, Mettenberger who boasts a 73% CR and 609 YP. AUBURN dropped their opener, 28-10 to Mississippi State and barely survived a 31-28 OT win against Monroe in their last outing. QB, Frazier is shaky with a 51% CR, 2 TDs, and 5 INTs. He must face an LSU "D" that has an NFL caliber DL with Montgomery and Mingo unnerving all opposing QBs. Without a running game, Auburn's QB better take out life insurance here and trust me, U of A can not run the ball on the Purple and Gold. The favorite in this series is 4-0 the L4 meetings. LSU is 6-0 their L6 road games while AUBURN is 0-5 their L5 games played in September. Take LSU as a small play.
Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Vanderbilt vs Georgia
Pick: GeorgiaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Vanderbilt is going to be competitive against several SEC teams, but this is a bad matchup for the Commodores and the number is actually cheaper than it ought to be. I like Georgia by three TD's, so it's the Bulldogs minus the points.
San Diego St -3
Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings and the Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play is on SDST.
Dave EsslerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
UNLV +10.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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his is one of my premium plays. We are going to the well with the Rebels yet again. Between the fact that this is their fourth straight home game, the heat in Las Vegas, and the fact that they do stop the run better than the pass, we expect them to keep this well within the number. Air Force may well be the weakest defense the Rebels have faced, and the fact that the Cadets have had two weeks off in this case is actually a negative to me. It is their second road game, but in such a timing offense, there well could be some rust here. We've got two 3* plays this afternoon as well.
Tony George
Notre Dame -6
I like the Irish at home Saturday. Oddsmakers have a big number here begging yopu to take Micgigan. Concerned about Michigan's defense in this one, and bear in mind Michigan is overrated in my opinion. Alabama destroyed them, Air Force gave them all they wanted and Notre Dames offense is better than expected. I like the home field here worth 4 points alone, and the Irish can contain QB Robinson with some solid LB's here. Statement game for the Irish, and Coach Kelly will have a few surprises in this one and will take some risks, if they pay off, the Irish could pull away.
SPORTS WAGERS
NORTH CAROLINA -14½ +100 over East Carolina
The Tar Heels rolled over Elon in their season debut and with Louisville on deck in Week 3, they took Wake Forest for granted in Week 2 and lost by a single point. Subsequently, they went into Louisville last week and found themselves down 36-7 at the half. Instead of quitting, they woke up big time and outscored the Cardinals 27-3 in the second half. That run revived the optimism in the locker room and restored some much-needed confidence. This team is feeling good again, preparing well and is ready to play its best game of the year.
Despite being 2-1, East Carolina has been outgained in every game this year. They virtually have no running game. They’ve demonstrated neither sharp execution on offense nor signs that the defense can handle ACC-calibre playmakers. When playing a quality club in South Carolina, the Pirates were whacked by 38 points. UNC is a quality club, whose stock is low due to back-to-back losses. Even though it’s a two-touchdown plus spot, we feel it is underpriced. A foul mood Tar Heels roll this week.
California +15 -105 over USC
We were guilty last week of either undervaluing this Golden Bears club, overvaluing the Buckeyes or a combination of both. As a 16½-point pooch last week at Ohio State, California gave OSU the scare of the season.
The Trojans had visions of playing for a National Championship. They entered the season ranked higher than Alabama. Three games in and USC already has a loss, they’ve dropped to #13 and hopes of playing in the biggest college game of the year are all but down the drain. That morale killing loss to Stanford last week is likely to have lingering effects. Teams with high expectations can suffer all season long when this happens early, as we’ve witnessed over the years.
Cal comes in after that aforementioned, uplifting performance at Ohio State. They showed so many positive signs as they displayed some exciting playmakers, a solid defense and the ability to compete when challenged. The Trojans are ripe for another upset as they look to get back on course. We’re not so sure they’ll find their way.
Kansas State +16½ -105 over OKLAHOMA
Not often do we find a ranked team taking back 16½ points unless the club spotting the weight is an undisputed powerhouse. Oklahoma comes in ranked #6 in the nation. While the placing could be warranted, the Sooners are going to have to prove that they’re worthy of such a price. Having to be three scores better than these Wildcats will provide such a test.
OSU has played two games. They beat two marshmallows in UTEP (24-7) and Florida A&M (69-13). The challenge here is much more difficult, as K-State’s offense is a methodical and talented group that will look to control the clock. It should prove to be successful as the Sooners are not strong on the defensive line of scrimmage, having shown definite weaknesses against the run. Meanwhile, KSU has played one more game than the Sooners and they’re 3-0 this season with wins over Missouri State (51-9), Miami (52-13) and North Texas (35-21).
Oklahoma quarterbacks were sacked 11 times last season. This year's Sooners have already allowed three sacks to UTEP and five more to Florida A&M. Oklahoma is about to face a team with 30 seniors, a Hall of Fame coach, a Heisman-candidate quarterback and the best defense the school has fielded since 2003. Oklahoma is tough to beat in Norman but this year's team has some issues. K-State will battle for a win here, let alone a cover.
SPORTS WAGERS
TJ Grant +151 over Evan Dunham
Hailing from Nova Scotia, TJ Grant is still a relative unknown in Canada to casual fans but he has quietly put together a respectable 5-3 record in the UFC. He has won two straight since his drop to the light-weight division.
Evan Durham is a BJJ black-belt and well-rounded mixed martial artist that is 6-2 in the UFC. This is a very competitive fight. Grant's defensive grappling is very strong and will make it hard for Dunham to control Grant on the ground or finish the fight with a submission. Looking at Grant's career, four of his five losses have come by decision, which is where this fight is likely headed.
This will probably not be an easy fight to judge and given that this fight is in Canada, the Toronto faithful will be giving Grant a ton of support. That hometown advantage can be enough to sway a judge or two when a close fight goes the distance. Given the state of MMA judging at some events it definitely has to be considered. And crowd noise has unquestionably influenced referees into standing up fights or breaking up clinches along the fence without giving the combatants adequate time to work. Grant definitely has the skills to win this fight on his own merit and he also has the intangibles working in his favor.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona -109 over COLORADO
The Diamondbacks came in here last night and went off for 15 runs. We’ve seen it over and over again in Colorado, when a club goes off in the first game of a series, it commonly carries over for the rest of the set.
Patrick Corbin allowed six runs in six innings here back in May but he’s a different pitcher now than he was then. Corbin's improvement as the season has gone on is especially telling. Since his August 1 recall and insertion into the Diamondbacks' rotation, he’s posted an xERA of 3.47. His overall numbers aren’t pretty, but his under the surface stats are solid and he's 4-3 with a 49/11 K/BB (3.86 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) over 56 innings since the All-Star break.
Jhoulys Chacin has allowed one earned run or less in three of his four September outings but an 86% strand rate and 5.31 xERA says take cover. Lefty Corbin will be pleased to know that the Rockies are a major league worst against left-handed starters with a disturbing 13 wins in 45 tries this year.
MLB Predictions
Milwaukee Brewers +135
The Brewers won last night's meeting 4-2 to make it 6 straight wins and make a further push for the Wild Card spot as the Cardinals dropped their afternoon game. The Brewers, who many counted out of the playoffs a while ago, sit 1.5 games back of St Louis with a 78-72 record. The Nationals have clinched their playoff berth and are sitting at 91-59 right now. Tonight's pitcher for Milwaukee will be Wily Peralta who has been sensational in his first three starts. Over 3 starts he is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and .212 opponents batting average. In his last two starts he has pitched a combined 14 innings giving up just 1 earned run against, while striking out 9 and walking just 2 batters. We'll see a great pitching match up as the Nats send 19 game winner Gio Gonzalez to the rubber tonight. Gonzalez is 19-8 on the year with a 2.95 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .207 opponents batting average. Note that the Brewers are 24-6 over their last 30 games overall, which includes 6 straight wins and wins in 9 of their last 10 games. Milwaukee is also 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog, 9-2 in their last 11 vs a left handed starter, and 16-5 in their last 21 vs a team with a winning record. The Nationals are just 2-5 in their last 7 games. Gonzalez is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now, but Peralta has shown that he can really limit hitters as well. I like the Brewers, who are a much more desperate team right now and who have been winning a lot of baseball games lately, as underdogs.
Philadelphia Phillies -118
A little shorter write up here for the 1 unit play. The Phillies won last night's game 6-2 and have now won 4 straight games as they continue to fight for their lives 3 games back in the Wild Card race. This is a team that was even further out of playoff talks than Milwaukee, but winning 20 of their last 27 has given them an outside shot. The Braves hold the #1 Wild Card spot with a 86-65 record. Atlanta has dropped 2 of 3 coming into tonight's game and they are just 2-5 in their last 7 road games. Take note that the Braves have scored 3 or fewer runs in 12 of their last 16 games. Atlanta will have Mike Minor on the mound who is 9-10 with a 4.31 ERA, but has pitched exceptional over his last three starts allowing just 1 earned run against. Vet Roy Halladay takes the mound for Philadelphia and he is 10-7 with a 4.03 ERA, but hasn't had his best stuff lately. Take note that the Braves are 1-5 in Minor's last 6 road starts, while the Phillies are 29-10 in Halladay's last 39 home starts. The Phillies are also 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs a left handed starter, 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs a team with a winning record, and 22-8 in their last 30 home games overall. Philadelphia is also a solid 9-2 in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record and 9-2 in their last 11 following a win. I think we have a good price on Philadelphia who has been the hotter team lately, especially at home. 1 unit on PHI.
Jimmy Moore
Michigan at Notre Dame
Play: Michigan
This has been a series dominated by the underdog and this game looks to be more of the same. Last year Michigan scored a late TD to win this game and there doesn't really seem to be any reason this game won't be right down to the wire as well. Notre Dame is coming off of a very satisfying and emotional revenge win against Michigan State so it will be a bit tough for them to get all fired up again. Michigan had a cake walk last week so the really have had 2 weeks to prepare here. Take the TD with Michigan to be a winner.
Harry Bondi
WYOMING (+3) over Idaho
In a battle of 0-3 teams, we'll take the points with the more talented and experienced Cowboys. The main problem for Wyoming has been a rush defense that has given up big yards in big chunks, but the Idaho offense isn't built to take advantage of this weakness. In fact, the Vandals are averaging a dismal 1.6 yards per carry this season and could only muster six yards on 20 carries against Bowling Green. Idaho is also in the unfamiliar role as a favorite and hasn't enjoyed a home field advantage, going just 3-8 at the Kibbie Dome the last three years while covering just 38% of their home games the last 10 years. Wyoming may be without QB Brett Smith, but won't miss a beat on offense if Colby Kirkegaard is under center. Take the points.
Scott Delaney
My free pick winner for Saturday is a bit unorthodox, something unusual, but I want you playing what's called a Sweetheart Teaser, as I like the three plays you see below - two sides and one total - on a 10-point. Quite frankly, it's pretty crystal clear what I'm doing here with these games, right? I'm taking a pair of double-digit favorites to cheap prices and a total I could see going over without the tease, to go over an even easier number.
Let's start with Georgia, which has such a balanced attack on both sides, with the 10th-best scoring offense based on the play of the 20th-best offense overall, and the 42nd-best total defense. The Bulldogs have been impressive behind steady and consistent play over their first three wins of the season. They took care of Buffalo in what I thought would be a tough-to-focus season-opener, since Missouri was on deck. They took care of the Tigers afterward in a 21-point win and last week blasted Florida Atlantic by 36 points. I know and am well aware of how dangerous Vandy has been over the years, but I don't think the 'Dores will threaten this team today. Especially teasing it down this low.
Next up, Utah State. You didn't know about the Aggies when they throttled Southern Utah in the season-opener, a 34-3 blowout. You became familiar with them after they stunned Utah in overtime in a nationally televised weekday contest, 27-20 on Sept. 7. How about last week when they went to Camp Randall in Madison, Wisconsin and scared the crap out of the Badgers? The Aggies lost 16-14, but they won over a ton of respect. They do have to stay focused for this trip to Colorado State, but a win here and I think they realistically could go to BYU on Oct. 5 with a 4-1 mark since UNLV is on deck. I'll be glad to take this number down to less than a field goal and take the better team that has a hard-hitting and stingy defense.
Finally, how do you not expect a lot of points with this game between Fresno State and Tulsa, seriously? Fresno has the 16th-best scoring offense, averaging 43.6 points per game after beating Weber State by 27, going to Eugene and hanging with Oregon for a bit and then blasting Colorado, 69-14 last week. Tulsa's scoring O averages even more, at 44.6 points per game, which is 14th-best in the nation. Tulsa does it with a rushing game that ranks 10th in the country, while the Bulldogs are balanced with the 34th-best rushing game and 22nd-ranked passing game. By teasing this down to 58, we're asking each team to score 30 points, which seems easy enough for both teams.
Enjoy this rare play - a Sweetheart Teaser - as I manipulate the lines by 10 points, with an easy three-teamer.
5♦ SWEETHEART TEASER Georgia (-4') - Utah State (-2') - Over (58) Fresno/Tulsa
Craig Davis
75-61 with my free plays.
Saturday's free play is the New Mexico Lobos plus the points at New Mexico State.
If your line is 6 1/2-points, buy the half-point up on the Lobos.
I'm counting on the New Mexico Lobos to stay within a TD of New Mexico State because this is actually a HUGE rivalry (the Rio Grande Rivalry) and both teams are well below average.
They are two very different teams that come into the game with very similar circumstances. Both are from the state of New Mexico, both are 1-2, and both believe they will win a conference title before the other. Wishful thinking for two programs with very little history. Still, my money tonight (and on the conference title bet) would go with New Mexico.
Bob Davie was named new head coach this off-season to turn around a program that was an absolute laughing stock over the last five years. The fact the Lobos were, again, picked to finish dead last in the Mountain West Conference so even the sports writers and coaches don't believe Davie can be a miracle worker in 2012.
After a very surprising opening week blowout win, the Lobos have played Texas and Texas Tech in back to back weeks and the results were similar... big losses.
But all bets are off this week. In fact, I'm glad the Lobos were roughed up the last few weeks by better teams. When they face their rival today it will almost be a relief. No disrespect to New Mexico State, but the comparisons between them and the Texas schools are minimal, at best.
Offensively, the Aggies are averaging 264 yards per game passing while the Lobos average just 49 yards through the air. However, on the ground New Mexico runs for an average of 213 yards per game while the Aggies check in at 94 yards per game.
I realize that overall, New Mexico State probably has the slight personnel advantage, but I'll take my chances with a running team in this rivalry game with a better coach and a better game plan.
Free play of the day is New Mexico plus the points.
2♦ NEW MEXICO
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is UCLA at home over Oregon State in the Pac 12 opener for both schools.
The Beavers are only playing for the second time this season, and their 10-7 win over Wisconsin back on September 8th is not looking that impressive after the way the Badgers have been playing since that contest.
UCLA has gotten its act together under first year coach Jim Mora Jr., as the Bruins are off to a 3-0 start both straight up and against the spread, and they have covered both attempts this season in the role of favorite.
The Bruins sport a long term 35-16 spread mark at home since the 2004 campaign, and they have also been the play in this rivalry winning and covering the last pair in this series - both in the underdog role! - as the Uclans are now on an 8-1 spread run versus the Beavers.
The Bruins defense has made its mark this year, recording 10 takeaways, and they figure to record a few more against the rusty Beavers in this spot.
Throw in a steady dose of Johnathan Franklin - the nation's leading rusher - plugging away on the ground, and this one will turn into a double-digit win and cover for the Bruins who run their mark to 4-0 both straight up and against the spread.
5♦ UCLA