Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 24,2011

Atlanta at Washington
The Nationals look to build on their 9-1 record in their last 10 games as an underdog. Washington is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-+140)

Game 901-902: Atlanta at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Beachy) 15.403; Washington (Wang) 16.240
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-140); Over

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.890; NY Mets (Gee) 14.056
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Under

Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lopez) 15.089; St. Louis (Lohse) 15.882
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-180); Under

Game 907-908: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Wood) 15.199; Pittsburgh (Lincoln) 14.150
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); Over

Game 909-910: Colorado at Houston (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 13.935; Houston (Happ) 13.697
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-110); Under

Game 911-912: Florida at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanabia) 14.732; Milwaukee (Greinke) 15.470
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 913-914: San Francisco at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Surkamp) 15.905; Arizona (Kennedy) 15.559
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 915-916: LA Dodgers at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.630; San Diego (Harang) 16.425
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Over

Game 917-918: Boston at NY Yankees (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.011; NY Yankees (Garcia) 16.150
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+125); Under

Game 919-920: Baltimore at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 16.926; Detroit (Verlander) 16.062
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-260); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+220); Over

Game 921-922: Minnesota at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 14.403; Cleveland (Talbot) 15.320
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 923-924: Toronto at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 16.127; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.188
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Over

Game 925-926: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Teaford) 14.667; White Sox (Danks) 154821
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Under

Game 927-928: Seattle at Texas (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.965; Texas (Ogando) 15.820
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 929-930: Oakland at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Moscoso) 15.977; LA Angels (Williams) 16.997
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-150); Under

Game 931-932: Minnesota at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Duensing) 14.775; Cleveland (Huff) 13.495
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 933-934: Philadelphia at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 13.890; NY Mets (Dickey) 15.056
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Under

CFL

Winnipeg at Toronto
The Bluebombers look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 road games. Winnipeg is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bluebombers favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-3)

Game 493-494: BC at Saskatchewan (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 118.411; Saskatchewan 117.735
Dunkel Line: BC by 1; 54
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 1 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: BC (+1 1/2); Over

Game 495-496: Winnipeg at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 112.821; Toronto 106.904
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 6; 52
Vegas Line: Winnipeg by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-3); Over

Hollywood Sports

Missouri at Oklahoma
Prediction: Missouri

Oklahoma looks due for a letdown after their emotionally charged win on the road at Florida State last Saturday night. The Sooners held the Seminoles to just 246 yards of offense en route to their 23-13 victory -- but Oklahoma has failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games after holding their previous opponent to 250 yards or less. Laying three touchdowns is too much when facing a Missouri team that returns fifteen starters from last year's team that defeated the Sooners by a 36-27 score. The Tigers' biggest loss was with the early departure to the NFL of quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Sophomore James Franklin has looked good so far in taking over the quarterbacking duties with his 65.6% completion percentage, 694 passing yards and an efficient 6-1 TD:Interception ratio. Nine starters return on offense to support Franklin's efforts. Mizzou comes off a devastating 69-0 scrimmage over Western Illinois where they outgained them by a whopping 700 yards while holding them to just 44 yards of offense. Coach Gary Finkel is developing a strong offense in Missouri -- and his club has covered 5 of their last 6 games after holding their previous opponent to 20 points or less while also covering 7 of their last 9 games coming after a victory. With a dominant defensive line and experienced returning players at linebacker, the Tigers should be able to slow down the Sooners' offense much like FSU did. Take Missouri plus the points.

Ben Burns

Central Michigan @ Michigan St.
PICK: Michigan St. -24

The Spartans have shown an ability to beat up on weak teams, a category that Central Michigan falls into. Note that Cental Michigan lost 44-14 at Western Michigan last week.

Regulars will recall that I successfully played against the Spartans last week but played on them the week before. That resulted in a 44-0 victory over Florida Atlantic. The Spartans, who were laying -31 for that one, held the Owls to a mere 48 (22 rush, 26 pass) yards of offense.

The Spartans haven't forgotten that they were upset by the Chippewas the last time that the teams met, in 2009. Its payback time on Saturday afternoon. Consider laying the large number.

SEAN MURPHY

Temple @ Maryland
PICK: Maryland -8.5

Temple's 14-10 loss to Penn State last Saturday doesn't look all that discouraging on paper. In fact, you would assume that the Owls would come away from that close loss to a top flight program with a renewed sense of confidence. I'm not convinced that's the case.

We won with the Owls in that narrow loss to Penn State, but we'll switch gears in this spot.

That annual showdown with the Nittany Lions means a lot to the Owls. They were at least competitive in last year's game, and last week had the opportunity to finally take down their quasi-rival. A Penn State touchdown with under three minutes remaining turned out to be the difference - Temple had never trailed prior to that point of the game.

RB Bernard Pierce simplified matters following the game, “We should’ve had it. We had it and we gave it up.”

I sense a letdown this week.

While Temple remains 2-1 on the season, keep in mind, its two victories came against Villanova and Akron. The Owls were favored by more than a touchdown in both games. This will be their toughest test, as they go into Byrd Stadium to face a quality Maryland squad that is coming off a home loss to West Virginia last week.

The nature of the Terps loss to the Mountaineers was a little different than that of the Owls. Maryland fell behind 34-10 early in the second half before rallying to close the deficit to 34-31 five minutes into the fourth quarter. It was a tough loss, but the fact that the Terps were able to stage a near-comeback against a quality program was certainly encouraging.

The difference in that game was three interceptions from Terps QB Danny O'Brien. Maryland was only outgained by three total yards in the contest. I expect a strong bounce-back effort from O'Brien this week - it's worth noting that he threw only eight interceptions compared to 22 touchdowns all of last season.

Terps head coach Randy Edsall is a key piece to the puzzle as well. He's been one of the best ATS coaches in college football over the last decade or so, posting a 74-47 ATS record. He's led his team to a 1-0 ATS mark in the favorite role this season, and is now 31-18 ATS all-time in that position. That's not to mention the fact that his teams are 35-17 ATS when coming off a loss.

I don't have the same faith in first-year Temple head coach Steve Addazio. He made a questionable decision in last week's game, electing to bench starting QB Mike Gerardi in favor of an ineffective Chester Stewart in the second quarter.

While Maryland will continue to miss suspended WRs Ronnie Tyler and Quintin McCree, I don't believe it hurts them quite as much in this particular matchup. The Terps have been involved in a pair of shootouts so far, but the Owls rarely produce that type of contest.

Look for the Maryland defense to step up, and build off the solid second half they played last week, holding West Virginia to just 10 points.

Larry Ness

Ohio vs Rutgers
Pick: Ohio

I used Ohio U as my 1st LEGEND Play of CFB 2011 last Saturday and won, 44-7. Frank Solich may not have been the perfect fit for Nebraska, although he was 58-19 (.753) in his six years in Lincoln, but he's been “just the right man for the job” here in Athens (or “Harvard on the Hocking,” as we used to call the campus). Solich took over in Athens prior to the prior to the 2004 season. He went 4-7 in his first year but led the Bobcats to the MAC championship game in 2006 and to the school’s first bowl appearance since 1968. After 6-6 and 4-8 seasons the next two years, Solich has seen the team go 9-5 and 8-5 in each of the last two, losing a hard-fought 20-10 (plus-13 1/2 points) to CMU and Dan LeFevour in the 2009 MAC championship game and ending each of the last two seasons with a bowl appearance. Yes, Solich has not been able to win either of his three bowl appearances with the Bobcats but let me remind the unfamiliar that Ohio had been to just TWO bowl games in its history prior to Solich’s arrival and has now gone to THREE in his six years. That’s saying something. This could be the year Ohio finally breaks through with a bowl win but I’m getting ahead of myself. The ‘D’ has allowed 274.3 YPG (20th) and 11.3 PPG (13th) in Ohio’s 3-0 start and QB Tettleton has completed 61.7% (7-1 ratio) while the running game is averaging 248 YPG (5.1 YPC). Ohio will visit Rutgers on Saturday averaging 39.3 PPG, rarified ‘air’ for this program. Greg Schiano is in his 11th year at Rutgers and his accomplishments are noteworthy. The team was 11-2 in 2006 (opened 9-0 and was ranked 7th) plus owns five bowl appearances in his 10 seasons. However, Rutgers went 4-8 last year and while this year’s team figures to be better, I want to note the fact that Solich’s Ohio U teams are an impressive 35-17-3 ATS in regular season games since mid-2006. Take the points.

Tony George

Temple +9.5

Temple had Penn State on the ropes and ended up losing last week in a tight one, Maryland in the meantime was busy coming from behind against UWV and almost won in a 37-31 loss. Not an easy spot for either team but like the Temple running game in this one to keep it close and keep pass happy Terps on sidelines with some clock control. Both teams deflated after last week, no doubt, so I will grab the generous points here with a very feisty Owl team that can put some points up here.

Scott Spreitzer

La.-Monroe at Iowa
Play: La.-Monroe

We had Iowa on these pages last week and cashed a come-from-behind ticket. The Hawkeyes looked dead in the water down by 17 points with about 12 minutes left in the game. But the poor Pittsburgh defense got shelled through the air by Iowa QB James Vandenberg. He threw for over 160 yards in the fourth quarter alone and finished with 399 yards passing for the game. The concern is that Vandenberg was sacked four times on Saturday and it's also not modus operandi for a Kirk Ferentz team to finish a game with a 48-33 pass-run ratio. I expect Ferentz to get back to "Iowa football" in this one. Last week, the Hawkeyes had drives lasting just 5 plays or less in 8 of their first 11 possessions. That's not the style of play that's going to put Iowa in the winner's circle against the better Big-10 teams on their upcoming schedule. Look for Iowa to run the ball in an attempt to control the ball, much like TCU did last week against UL-Monroe. The Warhawks jumped out to an early 17-14 lead over TCU last week, but wore down as the game moved on. The Horned Frogs ran the ball 45 times for 207 yards and I expect to see the same type of game plan from Iowa this week. ULM played pretty well on defense in their opener against Florida State, allowing just 372 total yards. Last week they held their own for the first half and finished with the cover against TCU. This week, they catch the Hawkeyes at the right time and I believe they'll hang the number despite HC Todd Berry singing the blues about having to play three straight emotionally tough football games. Iowa doesn't always take care of business when they're "supposed to," covering just 4 of 15 against teams with a losing record. They're also just 6-18 ATS as a fave of more than 10 points and 1-5 ATS in their last six as a favorite, in general. I believe the number is too high and that UL-Monroe will cash the ticket.

Steve Merril

Oregon vs. Arizona
Play: Oregon -14.5

Chip Kelly and the Oregon Ducks have had a tumultuous 2011. They lost the BCS title game in January, rumors of wrong doing within the football program surfaced over the summer, and an opening season loss to LSU may prove to be too much to overcome by season’s end. But this game at Arizona doesn’t look to be too much of a hurdle for Oregon. The Ducks have won their last two games in blowout fashion by a combined score of 125-27. Oregon will now open conference play after “officially” being put on notice by the NCAA. Kelly insists that the investigation is not a distraction to the team, and we expect the Ducks will want to score as many points and win by as many points as possible in order to prove that. The Ducks are averaging over 50 points per game while rushing for 260 yards and throwing for 278 yards per game. Their defense is playing okay so far as they are holding opponents to less than 375 yards per game. Oregon averaged over 10 yards per carry last week against a completely overmatched Missouri St team, and Arizona’s defense is allowing 173 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry. That is not good against a high-octane Oregon offense that is looking to make a statement this week. Arizona was a 9 ½-point home underdog to 6th ranked Stanford last week and they got blasted 37-10, and a similar result is expected here. Arizona’s defense cannot stop the run or the pass. Again, that is not a good trait to have against Oregon’s powerful offense. The Wildcats’ own offense has been stuck in reverse. They cannot run the ball as they rank 116th in the country averaging only 55 yards rushing per game. The kicking game is a wreck again and their defense has allowed 37 points in back-to-back games. Against Stanford, the Wildcats’ defense gave up six scoring drives of 60 yards or more while letting the Cardinal control over 35 minutes of the clock. It was evident that their defense was gassed towards the end of that game and it will not be any easier against Oregon’s quick offensive attack. Laying over 2 touchdowns can be risky, especially in conference play on the road. But these two teams are on completely different class levels. Arizona had gone 27 consecutive home games without losing by more than a touchdown until Stanford beat them by 27 points last week. We expect another home blowout loss here.

James Patrick Sports

Missouri vs. Oklahoma

OU could possibly be in a letdown situation after winning a key road game at FSU but this is the Sooners' Big 12 opener and it's also a revenge situation after they lost (36-27) at Missouri last season. OU had won previously won seven in a row against the Tigers. Gary Pinkel's squad lost a nail-biter at Arizona St. in Week 2, dropping a (37-30) decision in overtime. Mizzou is (12-11) ATS as a road underdog under Pinkel while OU is (21-8-1) ATS as a home favorite since 2006. Look for the Sooners to get some revenge for one of last season's (2) defeats. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday complimentary selection in College Football's Big XII Conference is Oklahoma Sooners

Bettors World

San Diego State vs. Michigan
Play: San Diego State +10

The 3-0 San Diego State Aztecs (1st 3-0 start in 30 years) will play Michigan in the "Big House" on Saturday afternoon in a matchup that can only be described as fascinating, due to the coaching matchup. Brady Hoke, who took over at Michigan this year, was the man who led San Diego State to a 9-4 season last year, their best in years. If anyone knows this Aztec team inside and out, it's Hoke. He created them. Michigan is a -10 point home favorite with an over/under total of 60.

The Aztec 9-4 mark last year was no fluke either. They lost by just 3 at Missouri, by 3 at BYU, they beat Air Force and lost by just 5 as a 28 point underdog at TCU, and they lost by 4 to Utah. Missing is that big signature win, but this was a tough team that wasn't overwhelmed one time and that was against some pretty stiff opposition.

Remember also that Hoke has taken over a Michigan team that was a mess. Rodriguez came in and tried to implement his spread attack with guys who were recruited to play another style all together. He went about recruiting guys to play in his offense, only to get canned, leaving guys recruited to play in one scheme, having to learn yet another. Who knows what we have here with Michigan. Hard to judge on just the Notre Dame game.

Both teams come in with similar stats and against similar competition. San Diego State is averaging 221 yards per game on the ground and 207 through the air while Michigan's numbers are almost identical. The Aztecs are giving up more yards defensively then the Wolverines, while both teams are +6 in turnovers.

The Aztecs are led by potential Heisman candidate Ronnie Hillman who ranks 2nd in the nation in rushing at 166 yards per game. He's joined on the offense with 7 other starters from last year's 9-4 team. But the defense is a question mark, having given up big plays in every game this year.

Head coach Rocky Long was the defensive coordinator under Hoke, and you know the old saying, if it ain't broke, don't try to fix it. So, not much has changed at SD State which is a concern here as no one on the face of the earth knows more about these players than Brady Hoke.

There's also the chance that some Aztec players will come into the game with a chip on their shoulders as a result of the way Hoke left last year. He took the Michigan job and notified his players via text message, and that was that. No team meeting. No, "I'm gonna miss you guys". Just, adios. But perhaps more likely, the players Hoke recruited will just want to prove that their former coach was right about them, with a big performance Saturday.

It's an intriguing game with plenty of sub plots. We think Hoke has his work cut out for him at Michigan. He's likely going to bring Michigan back to prominence, but there has to be a growing pain or two. Look for San Diego State to keep this one close behind the running Hillman in what amounts to a once in a lifetime opportunity for these Aztec players, providing they can handle the environment - San Diego State +10

Bryan Power

San Diego St. @ Michigan
Pick: San Diego St. +10.5

Emotions should be running high Saturday afternoon in the 'Big House' when Michigan hosts San Diego State. 1st yr Wolverines HC Brady Hoke probably didn't envision that he would be in the home locker room for this one when it was scheduled considering he was the coach of SDSU at the time, but now he has to deal with the consequences. The Maize and Blue are not as dominant as their 3-0 SU record would seem to indicate and these teams are a lot more even than the public believes. Michigan is 0-8 ATS when facing a team with a winning record and are just 5-10 ATS the L15 times they have been laying points. This is an overlay. These schools have met just once and SDSU easily covered a 20-pt spread here in Ann Arbor as they led outright at halftime. The Aztecs have made a good accounting for themselves w/out Hoke, going 3-0 for the first time in 20 years and snapping a 20+ game losing skid against BCS schools w/ a 42-24 win over Washington State last week. This is a potential upset. 5* on San Diego State.

Freddy Wills

Southern Mississippi vs. Virginia
Play: Southern Mississippi +3

I love Southern Miss it's like they have a bye week as they played an FCS opponent and won 56-3. Take out their bad loss at Marshall and this team is a good team. Don't sleep on Marshall they have an elite defensive line in the conference with next level talent that gave them fits in that game forcing turnovers. That won't happen vs. Virginia. Virginia lacks any kind of ability to force turnovers and get pressure on the QB. They also lack ability to stop the run as it showed last year when they gave up 5 yards per carry. Southern Miss already averaging 6 yards per carry this year and they'll look to continue with that game plan vs. Virginia which should be a solid game. On the other side Virginia will try to use their size to run the ball and they will fail. Southern Miss is allowing just 70 ypg on the ground and Virginia just lacks the punch you need to score points in a game like that. They struggle in the red zone, 3rd down conversions and penalties have haunted them. That's a recipe for a disaster.

John Ryan

Missouri at Oklahoma
Prediction: Oklahoma

5* graded play on Oklahoma as they host Missouri set to start at 8:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Sooners will win this game by 20 or more points. Perfect playing conditions are expected in Norman, Oklahoma tomorrow with temps reaching 88 degrees and a game time temp in the high 70?s. Having a ?clean? filed is certainly advantage for the faster, quicker, and more athletic Sooner players. There be absolutely no letdown from last week?s huge road win over the Florida State Seminoles. Before the season even began Tony Jefferson, who is a leading defensive back, saw this game as even more important than the FSU date. Arguably, had it not been for a miracle fourth quarter finish in front of a frenzied home coming crowd by the Missouri Tigers the Sooners may have been playing for the BCS National Championship. It was almost a year ago that the Sooners debut in first place in the BCS standings and then Missouri broke a 16-16 tie scoring 16 points and preventing Sooner quarterback Landry Jones from completing one pass. Missouri held a big edge in rushing yards 178 to 99 yards and had an unimaginable 16:52 time-of-possession advantage in that game last season. However, Missouri was ranked No. 15 at the time and this year they are not ranked and do not have the returning personnel to compete with Oklahoma this season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 33-10 ATS for 77% winners since 1992. Play against dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game and with an inexperienced QB as starter in the first month of the season. Of the 43 plays made based on the criteria of this system 17 or 42.2% of them covered the spread by seven or more points. So, this further strengthens the simulator projections calling for a complete blowout Oklahoma win. This system has produced a remarkable 32-7 ?over? record for 82% winners since 2000. Play ?over? with all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 and in a game involving two excellent offensive teams averaging 440 yards-per-game after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. Missouri is coming off a huge 69-0 win over Western Illinois and gained 744 total yards in offense and held Western Illinois to just 27 yards rushing on 26 carries. This is important as Missouri has not played well following this type of blowout win. Missouri is just 7-19 ATS losing 13.9 units per one unit played after a win by 28 or more points since 1992. Moreover, head coach Pinkel is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game as the coach of Missouri. Take the Sooners BIG!

Jeff Scott Sports

6 UNIT PLAY

TEXAS A&M -4 over Oklahoma State: In my Big 12 preview I stated that the Aggies will have a great year and challenge Oklahoma for the league crown and I will not back off that statement now. The Aggies offense has been great this year as they have put up 41.45 ppg and 486 ypg, but it is the defense that has reminded me of the day of the Wrecking Crew. Coming into the year I felt the A&M defense was a top 10 unit and they have shown how tough they are by allowing just 10.5 ppg and 267 ypg thus far. Granted they haven't really played anyone yet, but make NO MISTAKE this is a very formidable defense that returned 30 of 36 lettermen from last year's team that allowed 22 ppg and 364 ypg. The OSU offense will be their biggest test all year long as the Cowboys come in averaging a whopping 52.3 ppg and 601 ypg. The OSU offense is strong , but they haven't really played anyone either just like A&M and this will be their toughest defense they will have faced so far. The OSU offense has also been a bit mistake prone in the early going a Weedon may have 8 TD passes, but with 6 INT's and they are 93rd in the Nation in penalties. OK we have establishes that OSU has the edge on offense, but here is where the tide really changes as the Aggies do get a BIG edge on the defensive side of the ball. I already went through the strong Aggies defense so let's look at OSU's stop troops. The Cowboys defense comes in ranked 80th in ypg allowed (417 ypg) and 64th in points allowed (27 ppg) and just like their offense piled up numbers vs bad teams their defense has not faced top notch opponents either. A good gauge of this bad defense was last week when they knocked out G.J. Kinne, who is one of the best QB's in the nation, after just 3 series and they still allowed the Hurricane to put up 30 points after he left. Last year Kinne was also this teams leading rusher yet OSU allowed them 365 yards on the ground. Both teams will get their fair share of points in this one, so it will come down to who can get more stops and tat edge has to go to A&M. Last year they led by 14 at the half, but 5 2nd half TO's did them in as they lost 38-35 on the last play of the game. Today they get revenge as their defense comes up with enough big plays to help them to a 10 point win.

5 UNIT PLAY

EAST CAROLINA -14 over UAB: Last year UAB went 4-8 and were expecting a better showing this year as they had 16 starters back, including QB Bryan Ellis and 9 back on defense. Well that hasn't happened as they have come out 0-2 and have been outscored by 88-10 in the process. Last week was particularly bad for them as they were blasted 49-10 at home as 12 point faves vs Tulane. UAB was thoroughly beaten in that games as they were outgained 540-193 and out-first downed 28-10. That was not a strong Tulane team that crushed them last week. Now they must take on an East Carolina team that may be 0-2, but they did play very well vs in those games vs S. Carolina and Va. Tech. ECU's defensive weakness is their run “D”, but UAB can't run as they have grabbed just 60 ypg on the ground thus far. ECU's offense hasn't really gotten on track just year, but this is an explosive group and should have good success vs a UAB defense that has allowed 525 ypg and 44 ppg so far this year. ECU has won the last 4 in this series and by and average of 16.8 ppg. This one will be much worse as UAB just doesn't have enough play makers on either side of the ball to stay close in this one.

4 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Bowling Green/ Miami-Oh Under 52.5: The Bowling Green offense has been rolling in the early going, but putting up 39 ppg and 521 ypg vs the likes of Wyoming, Morgan State and Idaho is not a difficult task. The Miami defense will be their toughest test so far, as the Red Hawks have allowed just 345 ypg and 23 ppg so far and that was vs Minnesota and Missouri, on the road. Coming into the year I expect this group to be good as they returned 9 defensive starters from a group that allowed just 22 ppg and 339 ypg last year. They should be able to keep the B. Green Scoring down. On the other side the miami offense has really struggled, putting up just 14.5 ppg and 337 ypg and this despite they have brought back 8 starters from last year's team. That attack by Miami will be facing a very improved Falcon defense today. Last year BG allowed 34 ppg and 429 ypg, but with 7 starters back this year they have allowed just 18.7 ppg and 29o ypg. Just one team in this game can score, but they whil be going up against a very tough defense, while the team that can't score will also be going up against a tough defense and to me that's a recipe for a low scoring game. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Under is 46-18 when a team (Miami) playing a conference game in the first month of the season, is off a season in which they finished the year with 4 or more straight wins.

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Tulane +10 over DUKE: I had to wipe my eyes and check this line a gain when I first saw it. Duke is a double digit favorite? And over a team that is off a 39 point road win as a double digit loss no less. Duke is an improved team and they did shock Boston College on the road last week, but they also did lose at home in the opener to Richmond, which is an FCS team. The Duke offense brought back 8 starters and they were to be very improved over last years group, but they have struggled so far putting up just 18.3 ppg on the year and just 17 ppg vs FBS foes. Tulane's offenses has improved this year as they have put up 33 ppg and 393 ypg in the early going. The defense for the Devils has not been that great this year, allowing 28.7 ppg and 373 ypg so far and they should have problems with this solid offense of the Green Wave. Duke is not a blowout kind of team and they really don't play well at home as they are just 3-9-1 ATS as a home fav the last 12 years. Look for the Tulane offense to keep it close vs a Duke team that may suffer a letdown after last weeks upset win vs Boston College. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Duke is just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 home games vs Non-conference opponents, including 0-2 ATS this year.

IDAHO +3 over Fresno State: Common opponents can tell a good deal about a matchup and it's very evident here. Both of these teams played North Dakota on their home fields and while both teams won, Idaho played much much better in their game. The Vandals won by 30 and outgained their FCS foe by 222 yds, while Fresno State won by just 5 and they were actually outgained in the game by 4 yards. Idaho did struggle vs their two FBS foes they faced, but then again so did Fresno. Fresno's offense returned just 4 starters this year and they have been solid putting up 25.7 ppg and 327 ypg so far, but it has been their defense that has failed as they have allowed 33 ppg and 393 ypg. Idaho brought back 8 starters on defense and they have struggled a bit this year, but the strength of the Fresno offense is their run game (195 ypg) and the strength of the Idaho run defense is is their run defense (118 ypg). The stats are pretty much even, but Idaho gets the edge on defense, the edge on special teams, plus they are playing at home with revenge for last years 3 point road loss to the Bulldogs. I see Idaho returning the favor with a 3 point win of their own

Kansas State/ Miami Under 47.5: The Wildcats bring the nations leading scoring defense, while the Miami defense will only get stronger now that they have their key parts back The Canes defense is top 3 in the ACC and they have a ton of speed on that side of the ball. Just ask Ohio State, who was able to muster just 209 yards and 6 points vs them. They should hold down a KSU offense that put up 37 points last week vs Kent State, but just 10 points in their season opener vs Eastern Kentucky. The Miami offense is very good with Jacory Harris back, but he can struggle when faced with a good fast defense and KSU has one. Both defenses will finish in the top ten this year and I see these two offenses having problems scoring in this one today. Look for a game of around 40 points. KEY TRENDS--- The under is 5—1 in KSU's last 6 games in September, while the Under is 16-6 when Miami plays a home game with a total set at 45.5 to 49.

2 UNIT PLAYS

Toledo +2.5 over SYRACUSE: I firmly believe that Toledo is the best team in the MAC and while they did lose big to Boise last week, they showed how tough they really can be with a 5 point loss at Ohio State 2 weeks ago. Toledo was outgained big by Boise last week, but in that OSU game they actually outgained the Buckeyes by 36 yards. Syracuse is 2-1 on the year but a closer look shows us that they needed a miracle comeback to beat Wake Forest, then they barely beat FCS foe Rhode Island, beat for losing by 21 at USC. The Rockets have too much fire power for the Orange to handle in this one as they pull the outright upset. KEY TREND--- HC Tim Beckman is 7-0 ATS off a loss of 17 or more as coach of Toledo.

Florida/ Kentucky Under 44: The Kentucky offense is one of the worst in the nation as they are 103rd in total offense (247 ypg) and 91st in scoring (19.3 ppg) and they have put up those numbers vs teams that just don't have great defenses like the one they will face today. The Cats will be facing a Florida defense that is loaded and playing very well for a team that has brought back just 4 starters on that side of the ball. The Florida defense is 6th in scoring (8.7 ppg) and 6th in total defense (209.3 ypg). Granted their first 2 opponents were not very good, but this defense had a big game last week vs a powerful Tennessee offense as they held the Vols to just 279 ypg and 23 points. On the other side the Kentucky defense has not played they bad as they are 21st in total defense (315 ypg ) and 12th in points allowed at 13.3 ppg. The line suggests that Kentucky will get about 13 points in this one, while I just don't see them getting more than 10. Florida is not really a team looking to run up scores and I feel this Kentucky defense will come up with enough plays to keep Florida in the low thirties. I see no more than 38 in this one.

1 UNIT PLAYS

WYOMING +21.5 over Nebraska: Last week Nebraska beat Washington 51-38, but showed some weakness in this defense and this week they have to take on a Wyoming team that can put up some points. Nebraska is in a tough look-a-head spot as they have their first ever Big 10 Conference game up next on the road vs Wisconsin. I see the Cowboys being able to keep this one around 2 TD's.

Louisiana Tech +19 over MISSISSIPPI STATE: Classic sandwich game here and this would have been a higher rated play if it weren't that Louisiana Tech weren't just 6-20 ATS as non-conf dogs of 4 or more. I still like this game as Miss state is off their huge battle with LSU last week and they have a huge road game with Georgia on deck. I do not see them being up for this one especially vs a LA Tech team that is a bit peeved after blowing a big lead vs Houston Last week. LA Tech will be more focused in this one and they should be able to keep the margin at 14 points or less.