Jimmy Moore
Georgia @ Mississippi
Pick: Georgia -9.5
The Bulldogs desperately need a win and a convincing win. Enter the perfect team for them to be playing - the Bulldogs - who are very bad this season as evidenced by their humiliating 30-7 beat down last week at Vandy. Coach Richt will be very ready to lay the points on thick to appease his growing number of critics in Georgia.
Jim Feist
Indiana at North Texas
Pick: Indiana
Indiana has a new Coach in Kevin Wilson bringing in a new no-huddle attack. He comes over from Oklahoma, where he was the offensive coordinator. The offense returns 7 starters, the defense 6. Sophomore QB Edward Wright-Baker (4 TDs, 1 INT) leads a good offense that is averaging 27 points and 247 yards passing. There is an outstanding target in 6-5 senior Damarlo Belcher, who had 101 yards on 4 catches in the opener. North Texas (0-3 SU/ATS) is off a tumultuous 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS 2010 season, firing Coach Todd Dodge and offensive coordinator Mike Canales had to run the ship as interim coach. For 2011, new Coach Dan McCarney takes over (12 years as a head coach at Iowa State). Sophomore QB Derek Thompson leads and offense that is averaging 13 points and the defense is awful allowing 43.3 ppg. They looked terrible in the opener, a 41-16 loss at Florida International giving up 401 yards (208 rushing), down 31-7 at the half. Week 2 was worse, a 48-23 loss to Houston giving up 694 yards (503 passing). Play Indiana.
Marc Lawrence
Southern Miss at Virginia
Play: Southern Miss
In a matchup of two teams which are both likely to be bowl bound by season's end, we turn to our statistical Midweek Alert and our database to find an edge in this contest. For openers, the Midweek Alert tells us that Southern Miss is clean (3-0) ‘In The Stats’ this season, while our database points out that the Cavs are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. In addition, the Eagles take flight knowing they are 10-6 SU and ATS in games under head coach Larry Fedora when playing off a double-digit win. With Virginia a paltry 1-13 SU and 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games against winning teams, we'll take the points here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on Virginia.
Tony Stoffo
Temple vs. Maryland
Play: Maryland -8
Strong release out here in Las Vegas on the Terrapins of Maryland as all the emotion will be on their side here today. First off the Temple Owls are coming off of a devastating lost to inter-state rival Penn State. I just can't see the Owls turning things around emotional in one week and come and play a big game here on the road. While after their loss to West Virginia last week I can see Maryland coming out fired up to get back on track at home especially against an inferior opponent. With all the Class, Speed, and Emotion on their side makes for a blowout Terrapins win and spread cover here today.
Teddy Covers
Southern Miss @ Virginia
PICK: Virginia -3.
Virginia has lost their first two games against FBS foes against the spread, creating legitimate value with the Cavs as they take on Southern Miss on Saturday. This is not some throwaway non-conference tilt for Mike London’s squad. Rather, it’s the start of a crucial four game homestand that’s going to determine whether Virginia is going to end their four year bowl drought this December.
Cornerback Dom Joseph, one of 21 seniors on this ballclub who have never gone bowling: “This is definitely a pivotal time in the season. If we just run the table, we'll be sitting real pretty. That's definitely something we're looking forward to (doing), but taking it one game at a time”
Cornerback Chase Minnifield, talking about the transition from the Al Groh era to the Mike London era: “It's just a different vibe on the team. There's better people on the staff and just better people in general. We pay more attention to detail. He's just brought a positive energy on a daily basis. There's really just a physical energy that hops off --that's the type of guy Coach London is…. We're tired of losing. We've got to win to get to a bowl game. We've got to win as many games as we can, but we've got one game to focus on right now and that's the task.”
Southern Miss has underachieved through the first three weeks of the season, barely squeaking past Louisiana Tech in their opener, then losing outright as a TD favorite at Marshall in their lone previous road game. The Golden Eagles receiving corps has been a major disappointment for senior QB Austin Davis and the offensive line has been porous. Larry Fedora's squad has repeatedly been unable to step up in class against BCS competition on the highway – their last win against a major conference school came back in 2004. Don’t expect that 0-11 SU streak to end here, in a pointspread range where they’re likely to need a SU win in order to get the ATS cover. Take Virginia.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on West Virginia Mountaineers +6.5
West Virginia played LSU to a 6-point game on the road last season. That Mountaineer squad wasn't nearly as explosive offensively as this year's squad. Dana Holgorsen's Oklahoma State offense took college football by storm last season, and I expect him to have a similar impact with the Mountaineers. LSU's defense is top-notch, but West Virginia won't give up its 18-game home winning streak in non-conference tilts without a fight. LSU will have to put some points on the board to cover this number, and that won't be easy against a team that ranked No. 3 in the country in both total and scoring defense last season with 261.1 yards and 13.5 points allowed per game. The Mountain Men will force LSU's Jarrett Lee to beat them through the air, and I don't think he has it in him. Under Les Miles, LSU has never defeated an opponent ATS that is averaging 37 or more points per game. It is 0-8 ATS against these teams, losing to them by an average score of 29.0 to 26.1. Also, the Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. We'll take the points as WVU keeps this one closer than the odds makers think.
Steve Janus
Clemson -2.5
Florida State is battling some huge injuries offensively in this one, and I look for the Tigers to capitalize with a huge conference win that will put them in the front seat of the ACC Atlantic Division race. Florida State is expected to be without starting quarterback E.J. Manuel and could also be playing without two of their top receivers in Bert Reed and Willie Haulstead. On top of that starting corner Greg Reid could also be out for this game.
Florida State is still extremely strong on the defensive side of the ball, which will allow them to keep this game close, but I think they are going to really struggle to put up enough points to win this game. Clemson has the 8th ranked offense in the country in total yards, averaging just under 523 yards a game. They are balanced with the ability to beat you with both the run and the pass and are going to be able to put some points on the board. I don't think the Tigers are going to blow FSU out by any means, but they are more than talented to beat Florida State by a field goal with the Seminoles playing without their starting quarterback.
Florida State is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games, while Clemson is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Jack Jones
Notre Dame -7
This is an excellent matchup for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Saturday, who bounced back with a huge 31-13 victory over the Michigan State Spartans last week. Notre Dame is the best 1-2 football team in the country, and they should be 3-0 right now. The Irish are outgaining opponents 432-355 on average, and they only lost their first two games to USF and Michigan due to five turnovers in each contest.
What makes this a great matchup for the Irish is the fact that Pittsburgh has the 116th ranked pass defense in the country, giving up 336.3 yards/game through the air. They have played that poorly against the likes of Buffalo, Maine and Iowa, so it's not like they've faced great passing attacks.
Notre Dame ranks 26th in the country in passing, averaging 289.0 yards/game through the air. Tommy Rees has taken control of the starting QB duties and ran with it. Notre Dame can also run the football, currently averaging 143.0 yards/game on the ground. Their balanced attack makes this a very tough team for any opposing defense to tame.
The Irish have the 29th-ranked rushing defense at 89.7 yards/game allowed. Pitt's strength is a running game that averages 164.0 yards/game, which is countered by Notre Dame's defensive strength in their ability to stop the run.
Notre Dame is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards/game. The Panthers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September. Pitt is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
Black Widow
1* on Nebraska -21
Nebraska gave up 21 fourth-quarter points to Washington last week, but that game was a much bigger blowout than the 51-38 final would indicate. The Cornhuskers' secondary may get a boost with the return of cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, who is recovering from a pulled muscle in his leg. Dennard is back to full practice and is hoping to play against the Cowboys. "In my opinion, I don't think there's a better corner in the country. I think he's that good," head coach Bo Pelini said. With the defense struggling, the Huskers have relied mainly on an offense that has scored 40-plus points in its first three games for the first time since the school's national championship team in 1995. Taylor Martinez threw for two touchdowns and ran for another against Washington, while running back Rex Burkhead rushed for 120 yards and two TDs as Nebraska totaled 464 yards. The Cowboys have lost 14 straight games against ranked opponents by an average of 34.1 points. Odds makers have missed their mark here, and the Huskers should have no problem covering three touchdowns against this inferior Wyoming team. Wyoming has been outscored 137-26 in losing its three home games against top-10 opponents since 2009. The Cowboys are simply getting too much respect for their 3-0 start, which has come against very soft competition. The Cornhuskers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater. Take Nebraska and lay the points.
Scott Delaney
Western Michigan at Illinois
For Saturday, Sept. 24, my freebie in college football will be on the Illinois Fighting Illni, getting it done over the Western Michigan Broncos. I am well aware of how dangerous the Broncos can be against the Big 10, and the fact this is the type of team the Illinois could easily look past with the Big 10 opener on deck, next week against Northwestern. But I'm impressed with the Illni, and think they enoyed playing their first three games at home. They'll end up having played their first five games of the season in Champaign.
The Broncos became somewhat famous the first week of the campaign, as their season-opener was shortened due to a lightning storm in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Since then the Broncos have stampeded their next two opponents, crushing Nicholls State, 38-7, and putting it on Mid American Conference foe Central Michigan, 44-14, last week. How impressive were the two wins? 'Western Mish' has the ninth-best scoring defense (10.5 points per game) and 19th-best overall stop unit (273.5 yards per game).
But I take you back to Week 1, against the Big 10's Michigan. After scoring the only points in the first quarter to take a 7-0 lead, the Broncos were trampled by the Wolverines, 34-3, and were in store more damage. But the game ended due to lightning with 1:27 seconds remaining in the 3rd quarter. And because three quarters were not completed, the NCAA does not include any of the game statistics in its official stats. But believe me, against a superior opponent, Western Michigan was getting worked.
I see the same thing taking place here, against an Illinois team that is laying a cheap price of -13-1/2 points. The Illni is 3-0 after routing Arkansas State and South Dakota State, and then ekeing out a three-point win over visiting Arizona State last week. Illinois, in true Illni tradition, has been using its ground-and-pound physicality to stay undefeated, as it has the 22nd best rushing game on offense, and the 17th overall best defense in the nation.
Illinois' devastating rushing attack that is averaging 223.7 yards per game should be able to push its way through Western Michigan's defensive line, as teams are producing 154.0 ypg against Western Michigan. And what I like about this rushing game is how balanced it is; the Illni don't rely on just one guy. Jason Ford leads Illinois with 192 yards and four touchdowns, quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase has scrambled for 184 yards and two scores, and Troy Pollard and Donovann Young have churned out three touchdown scampers.
Fact is, Illinois is going to be too much for the Broncos to handle, especially up front and down deep in the trenches. Lay the points!
2♦ ILLINOIS
Chuck O'Brien
Ohio at Rutgers
The 3-0 Ohio Bobcats bring their undefeated record into Piscataway, New Jersey for clash with the 1-1 Rutgers Scarlet Knights, and I'm not going to lie, I love the Knights in this one. I don't care that Ohio is in the midst of its best start since 1976, I think laying 4-1/2 points is cheap, and that's why Rutgers is my free play for Saturday, Sept. 24.
After opening the season with a highly convincing, 48-0 win over North Carolina Central, the Scarlet Knights lost a close one to North Carolina, 24-22. They had last week off, and will be itching to get back on the field and anxious to take the field and disrupt that undefeated mark of Ohio's. I'm calling shenanigans on the Bobcats' opening run, as they've beaten a horrible New Mexico State team, the Big South's Gardner Webb and a bad Marshall team. This easily will be Ohio's first bit of competition of the season.
I can break down the teams' statistics, but they'll reveal Ohio looks better on paper numerically. But overall, Rutgers is truly the bigger and better team. And make note, even though Ohio beat up on Marshall, the Thundering Herd ran roughshod through the Bobcats' front line, rumbling for 172 yards on 5.1 yards per attempt. Rutgers has struggled to find their rushing game, but this is the perfect opportunity for the Knights to locate it and control the tempo of this game.
It's too easy to believe Ohio continues its winning ways, and looks too good to be true in taking the underdog here. I suspect Rutgers coach Greg Schiano will have corrected most of the mistakes and will have his Knights ready after having last week off. Lay the low number.
3♦ RUTGERS
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is to lay it all night long with Florida as they open their annual can of whip-ass on Kentucky.
Talk about owning a series, this is the epitome of "owning".
The Gators have won 30 of the last 31 series meetings against the Wildcats, and recent history shows four wins and four covers by Florida the last four years in this SEC matchup.
Florida is now 3-0 both straight up and against the spread under new head coach Will Muschamp, outscoring opponents 113-26 along the way, while Kentucky is coming off a home loss to Louisville in a game they were a five-point favorite in.
The Gators do have a look-ahead to Alabama in the swamp up next, but with a 38-15 spread mark their last 52 on-line, they should be able to put the offensively-challenged Wildcats in their rear-view mirror early tonight. It should be noted that Florida has outscored Kentucky 73-0 in the first quarter of their last three romps over the 'Cats.
Lay it!
5♦ FLORIDA
Chris Jordan
Toledo at Syracuse
Your college winner for Saturday, Sept. 24, is going to be on the Syracuse Orange over the Toledo Rockets, laying 2-1/2 points at the Carrier Dome. This line opened up between 3-1/2 and 4-1/2 points at some places, but has been bet down, likely because everyone is still riding the Rockets' big game against Ohio State. But I'm not about to drink the Kool Aid, when it's highly conceivable the Buckeyes were simply looking past Toledo after blitzing Akron, 42-0, a week earlier, while looking ahead to Miami, Fla., which they lost to, 24-6.
So let's see, hammering New Hampshire at the Glass Bowl, 58-22, the Rockets have lost to Ohio State, 27-22, and at home to Boise State, 40-15, and now they're supposed to go into Carrier and realistically challenge the Orange for an outright win? That's what I've heard and read all week; but I'm not buying it! The Orange, who is 2-1 on the season, will cover this game handidly, as it's playing its third home game in four outings, while the Rockets are playing their first game outside the state of Ohio, after playing two at home and the OSU game in Columbus.
Syracuse is back home after a jaunt to sunny Southern Cal, where the Trojans scored a 38-17 win. And quite frankly, I think the team should thank the athletic administration for stealing the headlines this week, as the entire athletics program made an agreement to join the ACC. It might have distracted the focus from the Orange's loss to USC, and allowed the team to focus on correcting mistakes from the 21-point loss.
What I think we're going to see is quarterback Ryan Nassib abuse the Toledo secondary, the same way Heisman Trophy candidate Kellen Moore did last week, compiling 455 yards and five scores. Will the Rockets be facing a quarterback or passing attack on that level this week? No. But on the road against Nassib and the 45th best pass attack in the nation, they have a reason to be concerned.
Toledo ranks 105th against the pass and 104th with its pass-efficient defense. Overall, the Rockets have the 93rd-ranked defense. If Syracuse looks past these Rockets, its defense might also be abused, causing this one to go over. But since this one is Northern New York, my money is on the Orange, likely by 10 points.
1♦ SYRACUSE
Louisiana-Lafayette at Florida International
Your late college freebie for Saturday, Sept. 24 will be Florida International, laying -17 points against visiting Lousiana-Lafayette. I've been on the Golden Panthers (3-0 SU and ATS) twice this season already, on Sept. 1 as my 400♦ Opening Night Game of the Year, a 41-16 winner over North Texas, and the following week I gave them out as your free play, an outright winner at Louisville, 24-17. Last week they won outright over Central Florida, 17-10, catching +7 points. To say this team is on a roll would be an understatement.
Florida International came into this season on a mission, as it shared the Sun Belt Conference title last season with Troy, and defeated the Trojans 52-35; this year the Panthers are favored to win it all.
It's not hard to see why, as FIU brought back 15 starters - eight on offense, including senior quarterback Wesley Carroll, and this 6-foot-1, 204-pound stud hasn't done too bad over the first three games, ranking 50th in the nation in passing efficiency. But he's not the story with this team, it's more about standout senior wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, a multi-dimensional weapon who had 848 yards receiving, 282 yards rushing and 11 total touchdowns last season, including two on kickoff returns.
This season, after three games, Hilton ranks among national leaders in just about every category mentioned, as he already has 363 yards receiving, 55 yards rushing and three touchdowns. As for his all-purpose efforts, he has 169 yards - both on punts and kickoffs combined - with his longest return being 62 yards.
And while Carroll and Hilton headline the passing game - Carroll set school records last season by passing for 2,623 yards and 16 touchdowns - there's also senior running back Darritt Perry, who ran for 839 yards and set a school record with touchdowns scored with 16, and sophomore Kedrick Rhodes, who has been a pleasant surprise and currently leads the team's rushing game with 191 yards.
Louisiana Lafayette might be 2-1, but it doesn't come close to having an offense like the Panthers. This team was crushed by Oklahoma State, 61-34, before beating Kent State and Nicholls State. But the offense has been unimpressive along the way, ranking 88th in rushing, 112th in passing and 114th overall. The defense isn't that much better, glaringly ranking 94th against the scoreboard.
Lay the points with Florida International.
2♦ FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Marc Lawrence
Toledo at Syracuse
Prediction: Toledo
The Orange generally brings extra pulp into contests like these but instead we’ll ‘concentrate’ on fading them with a lot of solid reasons. For starters, we wouldn’t be surprised if Doug Marrone’s men get caught looking ahead to next Saturday’s conference opener against Rutgers. They also take on a Rockets’ squad that should land in upstate New York with a bit of confidence, following competitive losses with Ohio State and Boise State. Third-year Toledo HC Tim Beckman is at his best following setbacks, posting a 7-4 SU and ATS mark, including 7-1 SU and ATS if his Rockets allowed 35 or more points in the defeat. And while the Orange were able to squeeze out a couple of home wins over Wake Forest (36-29 in OT) and Division 1-AA Rhode Island (21-14), we expect an experienced Rockets’ crew (18 returning starters) to do most of the peeling today at the Carrier Dome. A solid take. We recommend a 1-unit play on Toledo.
Lenny Del Genio
Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State
Play on: Mississippi State
Dan Mullen’s Mississippi State team is off back to back crushing losses to Auburn and LSU that have them 0-2 to open SEC play. Look for a far different result this Saturday as they drop in class to play non-conference foe Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs have really handled their business when stepping out of the SEC, going 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS since the start of last season, including a 59-14 win over Memphis in the 2011 opener. They have averaged 45.2 PPG and 523 YPG in those contests, winning by more than 30 PPG. La Tech is in full letdown mode off a one-point loss to Houston.