Erin Rynning
LSU / West Virginia
Play: Over 48
Huge showdown on Saturday night featuring second-ranked LSU at West Virginia. Dana Holgorsen and his Mountain Air offense face their best defensive opponent to-date. Holgorsen though has a history of being able to score on even the stingiest of defenses. While in Stillwater last season, the Cowboys put up 41 points on both Oklahoma and Nebraska – both of which at least somewhat comparable to that of this hyped LSU stop unit. Junior quarterback Geno Smith worked hard throughout the summer to pick up the offense (the same he ran in high school) and looks to be coming into his own. Expect a lot of quick hitters and screens to neutralize the LSU pass rush. Meanwhile, the Tigers will use the straight ahead, bullying approach to move the football. Against WVU’s 3-3-5 blitzing defense, I see that mentality as a real positive – you simply can’t fool power and athleticism. West Virginia has a strong defensive pedigree but with only four returning starters and extra pressure because of its quick moving offense, I project a significant drop-off. The Bayou Bengals are expected to return suspended wide receiver Russell Shepard and both teams are explosive in the return game. Expect plenty of points with potential for a special teams/defensive touchdown or two.
David Banks
LSU vs. West Virginia Under
The bright lights of ABC’s Saturday night gridiron match-up will be bestowed upon Mountaineer Field where Dana Holgorsen and his 16th ranked West Virginia Mountaineers will look to pull the upset of the 3rd ranked LSU Tigers in front of a national audience; kick-off from Morgantown is scheduled for 8:00 ET.
Even though LSU enters this evening’s tussle with the Mountaineers 2-1 ATS for its betting backers, the Tigers have looked every bit as one of the toughest teams the college football world has to offer in 2011-12. The Madhatter’s kids opened up their current campaign with a 40-27 whitewashing of the overhyped Oregon Ducks, and then followed it up with a go-through-the-motions beatdown of Northwestern State whom they throttled 49-3 as lofty 48-point chalk. Most impressively, the Tigers passed yet another stiff road test with flying colors last week in Starkville where the cowbells as well as the Mississippi State Bulldogs weren’t enough from prohibiting the Bayou Bengals from tallying their first SEC win of the season. That said; the SU & ATS win only improved the Tigers to 2-5 ATS their L/7 when favored away from Baton Rouge.
Fans of the Mountaineers got a glimpse of just how electric and potent a Dana Holgorsen coached offense can be last week when the offense posted some incredible numbers in the Mounty’s 37-31 road win and cover over the Terps. QB Geno Smith was fantastic in completing 36-of-49 passes for 388 yards with a TD and an INT. The junior has already thrown for 1008 yards and sports a 7/1 TD/INT ratio over the course of WVU’s first three games played. It would be nice to get a little more of a contribution from the run game so as to not be so powerful in one dimension; especially in this spot against a rabid LSU defense. The Mountaineers have rattled off 18 straight non-conference home wins dating back to the 2005 season.
The first meeting between these two powerful football programs took place last year in “Death Valley” where the Tigers secured the 20-14 home win and non-cover as 10-point chalk. LSU has won 18 of the L/19 times it went off the board favored, but only owns an 8-10-1 mark against the closing number in those contests. West Virginia is 3-3 SU but a lucrative 5-1 ATS the L/6 times it was dogged winning outright two of the L/3 times. The ‘under’ is 7-3 the L/10 LSU was favored, and it’s 5-1 in the Mountaineers L/6 at home versus opponents sporting +.500 road records.
OC Dooley
Arkansas / Alabama Under 50.5
One of the keys to this total actually has to do with next week’s schedule which will see Alabama tackling a Florida contingent that is operating with a pro-style offense that is thriving under new coordinator Charlie Weis. Next week the Crimson Tide defense will have the challenge of containing Gators RB/WR Chris Rainey who is currently ranked #8 nationally in all-purpose yards gained (187) per game. It would seem that the Alabama stop-unit will also have their hands full this week against an Arkansas attack that in three games has put a combined 141 points on the scoreboard. But the fact of the matter is that today is the initial road start for Arkansas’ inexperienced quarterback Tyler Wilson. In addition today marks the first true test of 2011 for a Razorbacks offensive line that that actually struggled back in the spring as they were breaking in a pair of new tackles. As for the Alabama defense it has been business as usual so far in 2011 as they have held all three opponents to season-LOW yardage figures while yielding a grand total of just 18 points combined. With Bobby Petrino as head coach it is hard to think about defense but it was one year ago when Arkansas actually rose 53 spots to a national ranking of #36. Among the returning defensive starters are a pair of players who served as 2010 captains for the Razorbacks. In this series one year ago Alabama and Arkansas combined to put 44 points on the scoreboard in a contest that held well UNDER a closing total of 56 points. Turning to the database here is an approaching 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (73-34 since 1992) which takes teams like Alabama after a game with a turnover margin of minus-two or worse UNDER the total, against an opponent off consecutive contests with a turnover margin of minus-two or worse. When cast as a favorite between 10’-and-21 points Alabama long term is a resounding 13-2 UNDER the number (also 13-4 UNDER off a “margin” victory of 35+ points). The real big news though surrounds Arkansas who in the past three years has gone 8-0 UNDER when up against a solid defensive opponent who allows on average less than 311 yards per game. Do I hear 9-0 UNDER anyone?!