Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, September 25,2010

Hollywood SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Jose St. at UtahFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UtahFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Utes are 3-0 after their 56-14 thrashing at New Mexico last week (our 25* Non-Conference Game of the Year) . They managed this despite losing three fumbles so it could have been much worse. Behind (backup) QB Terence Cain (20-23, 248 yards, 3 TD passes), the offense totaled 428 yards while gobbling up 180 on the ground. But perhaps the biggest strength of this Utah team is their defense under coach Kyle Wittingham. Over the previous two seasons, Utah has held teams to 17 or fewer points sixteen times. They have already done this twice this year while holding the Lobos to just 230 total yards. San Jose State will be overmatched in this one after a late TD was necessary for them to get by a South Utah team that outgained them by 84 yards. Lay the points with Utah.

John RyanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Virginia Tech at Boston CollegeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Virginia TechFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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5* graded play on Virginia Tech as they take on Boston College set to start at Noon EST Saturday. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that V-tech will win this game by more than four points. V-Tech is just 1-2 and BC is off to a 2-0 start, but there are several dominating reasons why V-tech will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a MONEY LINE system that has produced a record of 26-3 for 90% winners since 1992. Play against home dogs versus the money line and is a good defensive team allowing 16-21 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21 to 28 PPG and after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. We all know the shocking loss that James Madison put on the Hokies, but this is working in their favor for this game. This system has gone 22-10 for 69% winners since 2005. Play on a road teams in the first half of the season versus the money line after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games. I fully expect V-tech to have more rushing and passing yards than BC and that BC will not score fewer than 21 points. V-Tech is a solid 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games when they allow 15 to 21 points since 1992. Take the Hokies.

Sean HiggsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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UCLA vs. TexasFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 42.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Going UNDER the total here in Texas. This isn't the old Mack Brown teams. This isn't a Colt McCoy team that would be dropping a 40 spot by themselves. This is a grinding Longhorns bunch that brings defense. UCLA is a joke. 27-3 final.

Ultimate Sport PicksFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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South Carolina vs. AuburnFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: South Carolina +2.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We see a small edge with South Carolina and the points in a tough road test in Auburn. Steve Spurrier has finally decided to take over as the offensive play caller, and it has made an immediate difference. They have looked very balanced on offense since the change. With the emergence of freshman Marcus Lattimore they have been able to run the ball effectively, which has made things much easier for quarterback Stephen Gracia in the passing game. Marcus Lattimore is sure to be a Freshman All-American. He will be the X-factor in this game. He is a beast who usually breaks the first tackle and always falls forward. Auburn has a very good front seven on defense, but still will really have to stack the box to stop him. On the other side of the ball, South Carolina’s defense matches up very well to Auburns offense. Look for South Carolina to try to take the run game away from Auburn and force Cameron Newton to beat them with his arm not his legs. Auburn runs a lot of zone-read, the way to slow it down is to stay disciplined and not let them get to the edge. South Carolina has the perfect defensive personnel to slow that kind of offense down. This will be a very close game and will be a very physical game. South Carolina should sneak away with a win as long as they can stay disciplined, not turn the ball over, and keep the crowd out of it. 20-17 South Carolina.

Craig TrappFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Stanford vs. Notre DameFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Stanford -4.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Big game here for the Irish but still won't matter as they just can't stop anybody on defense. Stanford has a great offense with maybe the best QB in the country. Luck is a stud and this might propel him to heisman talk as he rolls up at least 4 TD's in this one. Enjoy this smack down as the Irish lose three in a row!

Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Akron @ IndianaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Indiana -22FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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How far has this Akron program fallen? The Zips are 0-3 to open 2010 while allowing 38.0 PPG, exactly the total they allowed in a one-point overtime loss September 11 vs Gardner-Webb. Meanwhile, Indiana's senior QB Ben Chappell has opened his senior season, building on a solid 2009 season in which he just missed throwing for 3,000 yards, completed 62.6 percent of his passes and threw for 17 TDs (15 INTs). He set a career single-game high with 366 yards passing last week vs Western Kentucky and with two wins in two games to open 2010, has completed 73.8 percent of his throws with five TDs and not a single INT. The Hoosiers have a trio swift receivers, all of whom have excellent size, especially the 6-5 Belcher (17 catches). That should be a major advantage against Akron's rather small pair of CBs (neither bigger than 5-9). First-year Akron head coach Rob Ianello can not be happy with this start (you think?). The home upset loss vs FCS Gardner-Webb was pretty bad but last week's 47-10 blowout loss at Kentucky wasn't much better. Kentucky scored 35 unanswered points and finished with 544 yards. Even the team's 3rd and 4th RBs were able to get into the end zone. Akron QB Nicely is completing just 40.0 percent on the season for 333 yards after going 4-of-19 for 57 yards vs the Wildcats. He's no match for Chappell and we should expect Hoosier HC Bill Lynch to use this game to fine-tune his offense, as he'll need this group at "peak level" in order to stay with Michigan and "Shoelace" Robinson, who come to Bloomington on October 2 for Indiana's Big 10 opener. Expect no let up from Indiana here, as a 3-0 start is not insignificant for a program which won just 39 games the last decade (just under four wins per season). Akron is a sad-sack 3-13 ATS its last 16 games while the Hoosiers are 13-7 ATS as a home favorite since 2000. Lay it with Indiana.

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon @ Arizona St.
Pick: Arizona St. +12
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Oregon is going to be one of the biggest public plays of the weekend. As of Thursday afternoon, over 90 percent of the over 7,000 wager have been place on the Ducks and justifiably so with what the public has seen thus far. They saw Oregon absolutely roll last week by a 69-0 score and it could have been worse but they called the dogs off after the fourth quarter. This line continues to rise and being on the road, Oregon backers will consider it low no matter how high it reaches.
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Oregon leads the country in both total offense and total defense which is a pretty amazing feat. Until to see why that is the case. The Ducks have faced an FCS team, Portland St., and New Mexico which is going to be one of the worst teams in the FBS. They also took on Tennessee but the Volunteers are in serious rebuilding mode. Overall Oregon has played the 126th ranked schedule in the nation and the two home wins by a combined 141-0 means little if you ask me.
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This is going to be the biggest test of the season thus far. Arizona St. came very close to pulling off the road upset last week at Wisconsin but there were some bad breaks that prevented the big victory. The fact that the Sun Devils were even emotionally into the game was surprising with their Pac Ten opener on deck with revenge on top of it. Last week, the Sun Devils did not turn the ball over once. This will again be a key on Saturday as keeping it away from Oregon is a priority.
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The Arizona St. defense is going to have a major test, but for the first time this season, Oregon’s defense will be tested. The Sun Devils have found a leader in Michigan transfer quarterback Steven Threet to run head coach Dennis Erickson’s spread offense. Threet essentially had his worst game in terms of statistics against Wisconsin but still completed 64 percent of his passes (21-of-33), for 211 yards and no touchdowns. He has a 144.80 passer rating on the season which is 35th in the nation.
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Arizona St. also played Portland St. in its opener and won handily 54-9 and there really is not much of a difference in that score compared to the Ducks contest and it may even be more sided toward Arizona St. since it was the opening game of the season compared to the third game for Oregon. This is a big revenge situation as Arizona St. has dropped five straight to the Ducks including last season’s 44-21 blowout in Eugene. The Sun Devils want payback on offense after gaining just 211 total yards. 3* Arizona St. Sun Devils

Teddy CoversFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon St. @ Boise St.
PICK: Boise St. -17
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There are a handful of ‘unwritten rules’ in college football betting. At or near the top of the list is this simple mantra for Boise State games: don’t bet against the Broncos on the blue turf. The long term numbers clearly show the wisdom of that strategy. Boise is 63-2 SU at home since 2000 while going 38-17 as a home favorite during that span. A ten year track record that has blindly produced 69 percent winners is worthy of respect.
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Boise has two BCS Bowl wins in the last four years, beating Oklahoma and TCU in a pair of Fiesta Bowls. This year, the Broncos sights are even higher; looking to crash the BCS Championship Game party for the first time. After an opening day win against Virginia Tech was devalued by the Hokies home loss to James Madison the following week, margins of victory are clearly important for the Broncos in their effort to impress the pollsters. The Broncos beat Wyoming 51-6 last week, continuing to pile on points in the midst of a blowout after halftime.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Boise has 20 starters back from a team that went 14-0 last year. QB Kellen Moore and his top receiving targets, Titus Young and Austin Pettis have three years worth of chemistry together. Running backs Doug Martin, DJ Harper and Jeremy Avery run behind one of the best offensive lines in college football. Defensively, the Broncos are loaded with veteran talent; a unit that has held their opponents under 350 yards per game in each of the last four years.
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The Beavers have struggled to hang tough in early season road games against power foes. Yes, they got a pointspread cover at TCU in their opener, but they were outgained by more than 200 yards against the Horned Frogs. They failed to cover the spread in their road opener in each of the previous five years, with ugly losses like these: 63-27 at Louisville, 34-3 at Cinci, 36-28 at Stanford and a 42-14 loss right here in Boise, allowing six unanswered touchdowns after taking a 14-0 early lead.
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Oregon State has decent skill position talent with Jacquizz Rodgers running the ball and his brother James catching it. But sophomore QB Ryan Katz is on the green side, making only his third career start here. Katz has completed only 47 percent of his passes for 301 yards in his first two games. And the Beavers defense was shredded by Louisville last week, a troubling sign for any team as they travel to one of the most hostile environments on the college football landscape. 2* Take Boise State.

Black WidowFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1* on Troy -10.5
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Troy has been one of the best home teams in the country over the last few years. The Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. This team has also owned the Sun Belt Conference, as no other team can match up to the athletes that head coach Larry Blakeney gets year in and year out. Troy is 21-6 ATS in their last 27 conference games. Arkansas State has gone the other direction, going 7-21 ATS in their last 28 conference games. The Red Wolves are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Arkansas State is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. After starting 1-2 with a 3-point loss at Oklahoma State and a 1-point loss at UAB, Troy will be very hungry for a win Satuday when they return home to face the Red Wolves. Take Troy and lay the points.

Info PlaysFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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3* on Utah -31
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Reasons Utah covers:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (UTAH) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. This is a 25-2 ATS System hitting 92.6% over the last 10 seasons. This system is 2-0 this season already. Bet Utah at home.

Carlo CampanellaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Ohio Redhawks vs. Missouri TigersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Miami Ohio Redhawks +18FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Missouri (3-0) is unbeaten and ranked #24 in the country, but they have been favored by 13 points or more in each of their first 3 games. Even though they were such heavy favorites, they won their opener over Illinois, 23-13, when failing to cover the spread and were lucky to escape with a late 4th quarter victory last Saturday while defeating San Diego State, 27-24. Missouri might be the most overrated team in College football and they’ve struggled against the MAC conference, beating Bowling Green by only a Touchdown as 20 point favorites last season. Miami (OH) is 2-1 this year, with their only loss came in their season opener against the #8 ranked Florida Gators, in a game which they held Florida to just 212 total offensive yards. Miami’s (OH) defensive unit is allowing 55 rushing yards per game and an incredible 2.0 yards per rush and will be too much for Missouri to run up the score, as we find Missouri at 3-11 ATS during their last 14 games against teams with a winning record.

Scott DelaneyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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West Virginia at LSU (-9)
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Jordan Jefferson may be inconsistent at times - but he's a beast, and is surgical at times as well, dissecting through secondaries like nobody's business.
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Laugh if you want, but I like the way Les Miles has handled the passing woes at LSU and how he instills confidence in Jefferson, by putting the pressure on the team's highly talented receiving corps - not Jefferson!
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In its past two games, LSU had fewer than 100 yards passing and has yet to score a touchdown through the air; yet the Tigers won by three-plus touchdowns each week and are 3-0.
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Now with the Mountaineers converging upon Death Valley, I'm guessing this is the week the Tigers need to open things up with their passing game, if they want to challenge 22nd-ranked West Virginia's explosive offense.
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Not that I think the Mountaineers' offense that is averaging nearly 29 points will do much, as LSU once again has a ferocious stop unit that recorded six sacks at Vanderbilt and five interceptions against Mississippi State.
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And I can tell you personally after watching highlights of the Vandy game and most of the Mississippi State game, that Jefferson's pass completion percentage likely would have been higher if not for receiver's mistakes.
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This is the game they're going to need to step up and provide the support for Jefferson he'll need. The defense will do its part - after all, I saw how Marshall disrupted the Mounties - and that willgive Jefferson all the opportunities he will need.
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LSU is winning by an average margin of 14 points, and that came against an ACC foe and two SEC opponents. No cupcakes in the early going for Miles' boys.
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Lay the chalk with the Tigers.
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3♦ LSU

SpartanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon -11.5 vs Arizona St.FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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A lot of people will be looking for Arizona State to ambush the Ducks in this spot and frankly I can see some of their logic. While Oregon has been steam rolling opponents thus far the competition has not exactly been stellar. No fault to the kids however, all they can do is lace them up and go out and compete against whoever lines up against them. Despite all the questioning of the competition nobody can deny the fact that Oregon has been rolling along like a run away Mack truck. The Sun Devils certainly made a good accounting of themselves last week in Madison as they went toe to toe with the Wisconsin Badgers just narrowly dropping a heart wrenching single point loss. The Ducks have clearly shown the ability to kill either through the air or on the ground. Running backs LaMichael James and Remene Alston Jr have ripped opponents defenses for a combined total of 570 yards and five touchdowns between them, plus quarterback Darron Thomas has been equally impressive as he thrown for an impressive eight touchdown while winging it around for a total of 562 yards. Guys those are some sick numbers. Do I expect them to continue the onslaught at Arizona State here? Not hardly, however this Oregon team is playing loose and confidnet and having fun. Right now they do not feel anyone can stop them and unless the Sun Devils are the benefactors of some untimely turnovers by the Ducks I do not see them staying within the number here when all is said and done. Pretty hefty price tag here for Oregon backers to take on the road but that number is there for a reason guys. This is a talented, confident team that appears ready to play anybody, anywhere. Arizona State will come out emotional at home and put up a credible fight but when all is said and done I see Oregon flying back home with a solid 38-20 victory.

JR O'DonnellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Purdue -11.5 vs ToledoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Pounding the Boilermakers this week as the "2-1" Toledo Rockets are a flat out phony ball club right now as we have dug deep into the #'s. The Rockets just cannot bring it on the offensive end as they have just terrible stats on offense. They were pasted by the Zona Cats 41-2 at home and that win last weekend vs. WMU was suspect . How about 6 turnovers that the WMU Bronco's crew had. They coughed up 4 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles.... ouch. The # 's are in, Toledo is 2-9 ATS to BCS schools. The Rockets are on the road again. This is their 3rd straight away. We feel that 2 big keys behind this Barn Stormer is that the Purdue Boilermakers are returning 2 valuable offensive pieces. #1 wide out Smith and a rock solid Rb are back. The RZ power ratings check in @ Purdue -22 and this spells a long long afternoon for the Rockets. Purdue can really step up the D and held the Ball State crew to under 100 yds on the ground. The #'s last week showed WMU ran 90 plays to the Rockets 58. The Rockets flat out stole one last week. The Purdue crew checks in @ 0-2 ATS so far this young season and has a bye on deck. They cover this week boys as it will get Ugly!! Remember the UTEP MINERS LAST WEEK OVER THE NEW MEXICO STATE CREW.... "Ugly" 45-10 winner