OC Dooley
Arkansas +7
This marks the second Southeastern Conference broadcast of the season by CBS and we certainly have a different setup as opposed to one week ago when troubled Tennessee played host to Florida and promptly failed to cover the spread. Not only did Tennessee fail on CBS at home, the prior Saturday they were thumped by a humiliating 48-13 count in Knoxville by visiting Oregon. Late this afternoon CBS is showcasing a “live home underdog” led by quarterback Ryan Mallet who so far has passed for more yards (1,081) than any other signal caller in the entire country. It comes as no shock that the Arkansas offense has become prolific as head coach Bobby Petrino has always excelled with creative schemes in that area. This is the same Petrino who initially became known at Louisville where the Cardinals under his watch became annual winners who produced a plethora of NFL offensive talent. This marks year #3 of the Petrino program at Arkansas and when he initially arrived the roster was loaded with freshmen who have since gained invaluable experience. Last Saturday was a memorable experience for the Razorbacks who not only recovered after blowing a 2-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter, they won at Georgia for the first time since way back in 1993. The progress of this program under Petrino is reflected in today’s line as Alabama who is riding a nation-leading 17-game winning streak along with a #1 national ranking, is laying only a touchdown. While the Crimson Tide have won-and-covered all 3 outings so far, the fact of the matter is that they have a relatively young defensive secondary who will attempt to slow down the country’s most lethal passer. Turning to the database here is a 78-PERCENT SYSTEM (29-8 past decade in the month of September) which plays ON underdogs of 3’-to-10 points like Arkansas off an upset win as a road underdog. Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino has always been a winner at the collegiate level where it counts and in his career is UNDEFEATED (7-0 ATS/HOME) after his team failed to cover the spread twice in a 3-game span
OffshoreInsiders
South Carolina at Auburn -3
South Carolina has been outstanding this season, winning its first three games and going perfect against the spread (2-0 ATS). To a large extent, though, the Gamecocks remain unscathed in spite of their quarterback, Stephen Garcia. The junior excelled in the season opener against Southern Mississippi but has been rather average since then; that won’t cut it against a top squad like Auburn. The defense looked a little shaky against Furman, allowing some big plays through the air, but it did record seven sacks.
Auburn (3-0, 1-2 ATS) has won its last two games by a combined six points. Worse yet, the Tigers failed to score a single point in the fourth quarters of either of those match ups. Running quarterback Cameron Newton is expected to get more opportunities to throw the ball this week (he has just 28 pass attempts in the last two games). On the other side of the football, the Tigers have been surprisingly competent.
Despite being undefeated, neither team inspires a ton of confidence. This will likely come down to who makes the fewest mistakes. Considering how Garcia has played so far, it won’t be South Carolina. Bet on Auburn
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3* South Carolina +3 over Auburn
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Steve Spurrier has perhaps his best South Carolina team since he took over in 2005. So, there's quite a bit on the line here, for South Carolina, and The Ol Ball coach. You see, Spurrier, to this point has really not had an impact on this team in the 5 years he's been in the drivers seat. Not that he hasn't had some moderate success. But he wasn't hired to bring moderate success to the Gamecocks program. He was hired to win titles. He has one year, his second, where he won 8 games. That was his highest win total. Otherwise, he's a 7 win per year coach. The problem with that is, They were a 7 win team when he took over. Heck, Lou Holtz won 9 games in 2001.
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At some point, Spurrier has to produce. Now looks to be his best opportunity. No better place to start than by winning on the road against a team you haven't beaten since South Carolina joined the SEC. SC is 0-4 against Auburn.
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We can excuse the Gamecocks lackluster performance last week against Furman. Tough to get up for Furman when you're in a Georgia-Auburn sandwich. In their other two games, against Georgia and So Miss, South Carolina was methodical and effective on both sides of the ball. Their defense has been among the best in the land, especially against the run, and their offense has been moving the ball on the ground behind and offensive line that is exceeding expectations. If their is a weakness to discuss, it would be the play of QB Stephen Garcia.
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But Auburn has QB problems of it's own. QB Cameron Newton has thrown the ball just 28 times. In the Clemson game, only one of Newton’s seven completions went to a wide receiver other than Darvin Adams, who caught five passes for 118 yards and a touchdown. His inexperience, and the coaching staffs lack of confidence in their young QB is evident. Whether they stay conservative, or whether they open up the playbook this week against South Carolina, either way would seem to spell trouble for this kid.
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The South Carolina defense looks to be the real deal. Certainly no place for an inexperienced QB to start experimenting. This SC defense held Georgia to just 60 yards rushing and out first downed them 23-11. If South Carolina is able to bottle up the run against Auburn, and they are able to take Darvin Adams out of the game, they are going to force Newton into situations he hasn't proven he can handle. It could be a long night for Mr Newton.
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What we're going to find out Saturday Night, is whether or not Steve Spurrier is ever going to be more than a 7 win per year coach at South Carolina. The Gamecocks look to be the better team on both sides of the ball. Good teams win big games on the road. The +3 here is just added security as this play is based on our belief that South Carolina wins a close game straight up. 3* South Carolina +3
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HAMILTON –1½ over SaskatchewanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Roughriders are coming off a gigantic victory over the Stamps in what could be classified as its signature win of the year. That game went into OT and it’s also worth noting that some key players on the Riders were hurt. It also had to have taken a lot out of these Riders, as they beat a vastly superior team and it took everything they had to do so. Now they’ll travel to Hamilton in a game with a lot less meaning for them. The game last week was a playoff-like victory and this is surely a big letdown spot. Saskatchewan is now 7-4 on the year but pulled two miracles out of its hat and they’re also a dismal 1-4 on the road. The Riders defense is not only banged up but they’re just not very good. They give up a ton of yards and a ton of big plays and that’s an area where the Ti-Cats can exploit those flaws big time. The Tabbies are an enigma. They can look unstoppable one series of downs or one quarter and look like they put on different uniforms for the next series or quarter. They’re coming off an impressive road win against the then resurgent Lions and now they’ll return home to play a team that is very unlikely to be as fired up as them. The Ticats can definitely score plenty of points against this soft defense and again, we can’t stress enough just how big that win was last week for the Riders. Under the best of conditions Saskatchewan would be in tough here but this is anything but that. Play: Hamilton –1½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
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CALGARY –11 over B.C. LionsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Stamps are coming off a rare loss and based on that fact alone, one has to trust they’ll come out firing here. Still, that game took a lot out of them and as mentioned above it went into OT but the fact is, they’re the best team in the CFL by a wide margin and it’s going to be difficult for any team to keep pace with them after a loss. The Lions defense has kept them in a lot of games this season and its offense picked it up big time about three weeks ago. B.C. has been moving the chains with a lot more consistency over the last month and while it wouldn’t surprise us a bit if they covered here, it also would not surprise us if they were thumped. Calgary has whacked just about everybody this season and adding one more victim to its list is a definite possibility. Play: Calgary –11 (No bets).
Michael Alexander
Tulane vs. Houston U
Play: Tulane +19
The Houston Cougars come into this one reeling at the QB spot with Heisman QB Case Kennum tearing his ACL last week and backup, Cotton Turner, suffering a shoulder injury in the same game. They had to use redshirt freshman Terrance Broadway.
Tulane has struggled versus Houston losing big and are 1-8 ATS away with conference revenge and 2-7 ATS as dogs of 15 or more points. However, you can throw all that out the window with the Hosuton QB situation. The talent differential is mitigated when sends a true freshman behind center.
Supporting Angle: HOUSTON is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in home games after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half since 1992.
Take Tulane Plus the Points
Sean Murphy
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have showed a renewed sense of confidence lately, winning five of their last seven games to pull three games over .500 on the season. They've certainly had their way with the Orioles, winning 13 of 16 meetings.
The Orioles have obviously been a much different team under Buck Showalter, and while they continue to win games at a fairly solid clip, their offense has gone south over the last week-and-a-half. They've scored four runs or less in seven of their last eight contests, and on most days, that type of effort isn't going to be enough to top the Jays.
Jeremy Guthrie gets the call for the Orioles on Saturday. He was terrific over a three-start stretch from August 29th to September 11th, but proceeded to get rocked in his last outing, allowing seven hits and six earned runs over just five innings against the Yankees.
Despite posting a solid 3.72 ERA, the Orioles have won just five of Guthrie's 15 road starts this season.
Guthrie hasn't pitched all that poorly, but the Orioles are 0-3 in his three starts against Toronto in 2010, outscored by a 14-3 margin.
The Jays will counter with Ricky Romero. He rebounded from an awful outing against the Rays by allowing just three earned runs over six innings in a 4-3 win at Fenway Park last weekend. The Jays are now 3-1 over his last four starts overall.
Romero has been dominant against the Orioles this season, allowing just three earned runs over three starts, spanning 23 2/3 innings of work. Not surprisingly, the Jays won all three of those games by a combined 18-5 score.
The Jays have been outstanding as a home favorite priced between -150 and -200, going 49-23 in their last 72 opportunities. Meanwhile, the Orioles are 20-41 in their last 61 games as a road underdog priced between +150 and +200. Take Toronto.
King Creole
Florida St. / Wake Forest Over 63
The Demon Deacons brought home the bacon for us last week as we were on the "OVER" in their game vs Stanford (92 points!). Wake really looks lost right now defensively. They got 3 interceptions in the Duke game (102 POINTS!)... but all three were caused by Blue Devil mistakes (dropped passes). Duke and Stanford both have excellent quarterbacks but they both had all day to throw and when they completed passes there was plenty of running room for the wideouts. The Stanford game was a tough spot for this unit but the Duke game showed that it was more than an anomaly. It's a very young and currently undersized front 7 for Wake that has trouble against good OL's (FSU 5.7 ypc) and the secondary isn't strong enough to succeed against a deep group of WR's when the QB has time (averaging allowing nearly 300 ypg in the air with over 60 % completion in 3 games including one against a terrible Presbyterian team). Ponder has yet to really click with his wideouts but he should have lots of time and opportunities in this game. Wake is also allowing 5.0 ypc so this FSU offense will be able to move the ball on the ground as well. Late last season a better Wake defense gave up 41 @ home to this same Seminole team.
When we play "OVERS" in College Football, I like to think that both teams are going to be able to move the ball, and I struggle to see FSU shutting down Wake completely. While the Noles have been good against the run its been against teams that either couldn't run (Samford, BYU) or that didn't need to (Oklahoma). The misdirection running game that Wake employs is very deceptive and eats undisciplined defenses alive because they leave their assignments. FSU has good but not great athletes on defense so if they get caught taking bad angles and missing tackles like this group did all last season and in the Oklahoma game then Wake will also be able to move the ball at will. Wake doesn't get great athletes usually but they actually have a pretty fast group of running backs and wide-outs that have on the season already scored on plays of 34, 85, 46, 81, and 38 yards with three more scores going for more than 20 yards. This group has big play potential and with scrambling QB Tanner Price I expect Wake to be able to move the football and rack up their share of the total here. All 3 Wake games have soared over this number and I see no reason to expect this trend to stop in week 4.
Dwayne Bryant
Nevada at BYU
Play: BYU +4
Bottom line: Everybody remembers Nevada steamrolling Cal 52-31 and BYU getting pounded 34-10 by Florida State and 35-14 by Air Force. So naturally, the public is falling all over themselves to bet on the Wolfpack today. But Nevada's beating of Cal came on their home field, while BYU's beatings came on the road. Nevada is a different team on the road and BYU is a much better team at home. Nevada may be a bit sloppy today coming off such a big win, while BYU should be majorly motivated being back at home and coming off two straight embarrassing beatings. I'll take the FG+ with the motivated home dogs of BYU for a small action wager.
Joel Tyson
Temple (+14) at PENN STATE
Penn State pitched a shutout last Saturday at home, blanking Kent State 24-0, but the Nittany's didn't really impress me with that win. I feel a similar effort today will not be enough to get the cover against a Temple team that comes into Happy Valley with a ton of momentum after their big 4th quarter eruption last Saturday at home in their 30-16 outright win over Connecticut as the 6-point pooch.
The Nittany Lions have won the last 4 series meetings against the Owls, and are 3-1 against the spread in those 4, but Temple did get the cover last season as the double-digit dog.
Penn State QB Bolden is still learning on the fly, and the true-frosh was picked off twice in last week's win over Kent. If the Temple defense can force a turnover or two, then the double-digits become that much more valuable.
The Owls do sport a 14-7 mark when getting points their last 21 tries, and are a profitable 4-2 against the math when getting double-digits in that span.
Penn State meanwhile is just 3-7 against the spread their last 10 lined home games.
Go with the Owls plus the points to stay close.
3♦ TEMPLE
Karl Garrett
Army at DUKE (-6')
After getting clobbered 62-13 last week in front of the home faithful, G-Man expects the Blue Devils to welcome the Black Knights in rude fashion this Saturday afternoon.
Duke had no trouble dispatching Army last season at West Point, 35-19 as the 2-point road favorite, and I don't think they will have any trouble dispatching the Cadets again this afternoon in Durham.
David Cutcliffe has been able to guide the Dookies to a 3-1 spread record as the favorite since taking over the reins at Duke, and has covered 12 of 20 on line as well.
As for Army, they are just 5-9 versus the spread their last 14 lined games under Rich Ellerson.
Look for Duke to get the memory of last week's whomping out of their minds in a hurry, as they take out some frustrations on the Black Knights of Army.
G-Man gonna lay it with Duke.
4♦ DUKE
Derek Mancini
Wake Forest (+20) at FLORIDA STATE
I can't say I'm buying into the Florida State hype this afternoon (like most bettors). This is a dangerous spot for FSU coming off a huge win against BYU. Throw in the Demon Deacons pitiful loss at Stanford, and you've got the perfect storm for a letdown here.
Look guys, its not like Jim Grobe forgot how to coach. His unorthodox style has been the talk of the ACC for years, and while he's dealing with an infusion of youth on both sides of the ball, this team is still 2-1 overall and 1-0 in ACC play. The real problem has been the defense, which obviously got destroyed at Stanford last week. But before you go fading them completely, remember they were able to hold Duke to 13 second half point the week before. In other words, this team has some talent, and given the generous point spread, I say they can keep it just within the number this afternoon.
On the flip side, let's not go overestimating this Seminoles defense. There's no question the Deacons can score points, and just because the 'Noles stopped the Cougars last week, doesn't mean we won't see a letdown on defense this week. I'm keeping this play within reason, but fact remains, this is a dangerous spot for the 'Noles who'll need to keep their focus against a highly motivated Demon Deacons squad today. Wake Forest plus the points over Florida State.
2♦ WAKE FOREST
Michael Cannon
Fresno State (+2') at MISSISSIPPI
I am now on a 10-4 run with my last 14 overall free plays after my winner on the over in last night’s Tcu-Smu game.
Take Fresno State as the small road dog over Ole Miss.
The Rebels haven’t been able to figure themselves out. They have dropped their first two games in Oxford, one an embarrassing loss to Jacksonville State in the season opener. It seems like the Rebels are trying to find an identity with new quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and it’s just not working out.
Fresno State loves being in this role. Coach Pat Hill relishes matchups against the bigger conferences on the road and it’s evidenced by his record. The Bulldogs have won six of their last eight games versus BCS teams and I doubt they will be intimidated stepping into this SEC team’s environment today.
Hill is 8-3 ATS in his last 11 as a road dog since 2007.
The Ole Miss secondary has yet to pick off a pass this season, so expect Fresno State quarterback Ryan Colburn to make some plays down the field. The Bulldogs also have a veteran offensive line, so it should be able to keep the pressure off Colburn.
Fresno State is on a 14-6 ATS tear in its last 20 on the road in non-conference plays. Ole Miss is 0-3 ATS so far this season.
Take the points with Fresno State and buy the ½ point up if your line is +2½.
3♦ FRESNO STATE
Derek Mancini
Oklahoma at CINCINNATI (+14)
This is an interesting match up, because the public still isn't convinced by the Sooners, and neither am I. This is simply too many points to lay on the road against an underrated Cincinnati team.
I'll give the edge on offense to Jones, Murray, and the Sooners. But on the other side of the ball, how can you not give the edge to the Bearcats defense? They've been rock-solid in all three games, despite the two road losses. They biggest disparity has to be stopping the run, where the Sooners have gotten shredded this season, allowing 184 rushing yards per game (on 4.2 yards per carry).
The Bearcats are not a run-first offense, but if you allow them to run the ball effectively, Zach Collaros becomes that much more dangerous. Bearcats issues on offense stem from a lack of protection (13 sacks combined in two losses). While the Sooners defense does have 8 sacks in 3 games, that's middle of the road right now, and only 2 more than the Bearcats, so let's not get carried away in assuming Collaros will be running for his life. Cincinnati will be able to score enough points to cover here.
The last piece of the puzzle is the ever dangerous "look ahead spot" for the Sooners, who'll be hosting Texas in a game that will determine the pecking order in the minds of most voters. We all know Alabama, Ohio State, and Boise State will most likely remain 1-2-3, but that # 4 spot will be up for grabs if the Sooners can beat Texas. Hold on a second though, because that line of thinking is extremely dangerous because it assumes the Sooners thrash the Bearcats today, and that's a big assumption. With two losses already on their record, I expect the Bearcats to bring everything they've got to Paul Brown Stadium today... Can you say the same for the Sooners? Cincinnati plus the points over Oklahoma Saturday.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Stephen Nover
Oklahoma at CINCINNATI (+13')
I'm on a 72-52-2 hot streak with my baseball free selections, but will give it a rest on the diamond. Today I like the Cincinnati Bearcats as a Saturday free selection.
Cincinnati needs a strong performance after losing two games. Note, though, those losses were against undefeated Fresno State and North Carolina State both on the road.
The Bearcats have had extra time to prepare having last played nine days ago and catch Oklahoma off a tough game and with a huge lookahead matchup.
The Sooners gave up 351 yards on the ground in just getting past a pesky Air Force team last week at home. That was the most yards they've given up on the ground in Bob Stoops' 12 seasons.
Oklahoma spent all last week studying and practicing against Air Force's unconventional option attack. Now the Sooners must prepare for a completely different offense in the Bearcats' spread formations.
Cincinnati was one of the best teams in the country last year. The Bearcats still have talent despite Brian Kelly leaving. Their players really want to perform well in front of their Cincinnati fans, the game is at Paul Brown Stadium, for new coach Butch Jones. Quarterback Zach Collaros looked good filling in for Tony Pike last year and is getting better as a starter this year.
Oklahoma has lost five of its last seven road contests. This is the Sooners' first road game of the season.
The Sooners are much more interested in next week's Red River Shootout against arch-rival Texas. That's their game of the year.
The marketplace has been all over Cincinnati so far. This time the marketplace has it right. The Bearcats will make this one close.
2♦ CINCINNATI
Chuck O'Brien
Alabama (-7) at ARKANSAS
I’ve hit 18 of 28 free plays in September -- including 10 of the last 15 after the Nationals cashed as a big 'dog on Friday -- and here I’ll back Alabama on the road at Arkansas in the marquee game of the day.
The only reason I’m not giving out Alabama to my paying customers is because this pointspread is inflated – had this game been played two weeks ago, the Crimson Tide would’ve been about a four-point road chalk. Still, I’m willing to lay a little extra with a team that’s won 16 games in a row overall and 28 straight in the regular season (including 22 double-digit victories!).
Obviously, after three games against San Jose State, Duke and an overrated Penn State squad, this will be Alabama’s stiffest test because Arkansas – while not nearly as good as their No. 10 ranking – is rapidly improving. That said, this will be far and away the Razorbacks’ toughest opponent, and although they’re a much more complete squad, you can’t overlook the fact that Alabama has taken the last two meetings by a combined score of 84-21, including a 49-14 road win in 2008.
Going back to their 32-13 whipping of Florida in the national championship game, the Crimson Tide have covered in five straight games while prevailing by an average margin of 30 ppg (the closest contest was the 16-point win over Texas in the national championship game). Take away a 26-21 win at archrival Auburn in last year’s regular-season finale, and the Tide have won their last seven games by a total of 223 points!
Alabama (9-2 ATS last 11 on the road) does have Florida on deck, but because this game has gotten so much attention and press, I’m not worried about a look-ahead. Besides, I thought the Tide were ripe for a letdown/look-ahead last week at Duke, as I had a 20 Dime play on the Blue Devils plus 24½ points at home … and Alabama won 62-13!
Arkansas is good, but it isn’t “Alabama good” – especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Razorbacks will score some points, but the Tide will score A LOT more and win this one 41-24.
4♦ ALABAMA
Michael Cannon
Alabama (-7) at ARKANSAS
I am now on a 10-4 run with my last 14 overall free plays after my winner on the over in last night’s Tcu-Smu game.
Take Alabama as the road chalk over Arkansas.
It seems like everybody is making a big deal out of Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett and how he has the ability to torch the Tide’s secondary.
They need to be making a big deal out of the defending champs and how they have their Heisman Trophy winner back!
Alabama rolled in last week’s tune up over Duke. Mark Ingram returned to the lineup and gained 151 yards on just nine carries. Now that he has his legs back under him, the Razorbacks are going to be in for a tough game.
Trust me, I have a feeling Arkansas is going to have a much tougher time containing Ingram and Alabama’s offense than the Tide will trying to slow down Mallett.
Mallett was 12-for-35 for 160 yards in last year’s 35-7 blowout loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
The Tide have won three straight in this series and four of the last five matchups.
Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games and 12-4 ATS in its last 16 overall.
Lay the points with ‘Bama and buy the ½ point down if your line is -7.
3♦ ALABAMA
Craig Davis
Oregon State at BOISE STATE (-18)
I like Boise State to thrash Oregon State. I could care less how many top 3 teams Oregon State has beaten in the past... this is a different Boise St. team that is trying its best to convince the rest of the world they are for real.
The bottom line for me is the fact that I don't believe Oregon State's defense could stop a high school team right now, so how in the world are they going to stop Boise's high-powered attack? Oregon State has done everything in its power this week to replicate the conditions of Boise's "home field advantage".
In addition to painting one of their practice fields blue, OSU HC Mike Riley had giant stereo speakers blasting crowd noise all week, simulating the loudness factor that they'll hear tonight in Idaho.The scout team wore blue jerseys all week to blend in with the field, the same way the Broncos will this weekend. All of that doesn't bother me a bit.
What OSU failed to do was find a secondary that could cover Austin Pettis, Titus Young, and the rest of the Boise receivers that figure to run wild much of the evening. Pettis and Young have combined for 28 touchdowns since the start of the 2009 season, and considering OSU's secondary is the weakest link for the Beaver defense, it could be another solid outing from these two seniors.
Oregon State's defense has allowed 453 total yards in each of its first two games, partially because they were playing decent offenses but also because they have lost some great defensive players like Matt LaGrone and MLB David Pa'aluhi for personal reasons.
If this tells you anything about how bad the OSU defense is... they used nine linemen and seven linebackers in rotation... and it still didn't help. They nearly lost that game. They have no pass rush, they have terrible coverage in the secondary, and they have issues tackling on first contact. Folks, Kellen Moore and the RB corps are going to have a field day. Honestly, I doubt Boise State punts tonight.
This game is going to get ugly. Boise wins by at least 24.
3♦ BOISE STATE
Bobby Maxwell
Oregon St. (+17') at BOISE ST.
Today I have a FREE winner for you from the college gridiron as I go ahead and grab the points with Oregon State on the road against Boise State on the Smurf Turf in Boise.
I’m not entirely sold on Boise State so tonight I’m going to grab the points with Oregon State and play the Beavers to stay close to the Broncos in this key Saturday matchup between two Top-25 teams.
Oregon State painted one of its practice fields blue to prepare for today’s matchup and this team has experience on the road against a BCS buster-type team when they went to TCS on Sept. 4 and fell 30-21, but covered as 13 ½-point underdogs.
The Beavers beat Louisville 35-28 last week, getting 132 yards and two TDs on the ground from RB Jacquizz Rodgers. He also had a receiving TD against the Cardinals last week and he was 11th nationally in rushing last season. Sophomore QB Ryan Katz has thrown four TDs this season without an INT and he’ll have to get involved and be on target today as Boise State will be stacking the line of scrimmage to stop Rodgers.
Oregon State comes in on several ATS streaks, including 10-1 on the road, 7-0 as road ‘dogs, 5-1 against winning teams, 8-3 overall, 9-4 after an ATS loss and 17-4 after a straight-up win. There is some added motivation for the Beavers tonight as the last time they were on the blue turf in Boise they were blown out 42-17 as 7 ½-point underdogs.
Boise State smoked Wyoming a week ago after their narrow opening-season loss at Virginia Tech. This is the first game at home for them this season and I know they haven’t lost at home in nine years, but then I’m not calling for the outright upset, I just think Oregon State will be able to score with them for most of the game.
Grab the points with the Beavers tonight as they’ll keep it close before falling in the end. Play Oregon State.
3♦ OREGON STATE
Bobby Maxwell
Stanford at NOTRE DAME (+5')
Today I have a FREE winner for you from the college gridiron as I go ahead and grab the points with Notre Dame at home hosting Stanford.
Notre Dame is a few plays from being 3-0 this season instead of 1-2. The Irish lost a thriller at home Michigan when they allowed the Wolverines to drive the field in the final two minutes and steal a win. Then last week the mess at Michigan State and 34-31 loss in overtime was insane. This week, the breaks have to be with the Irish as they welcome Stanford to South Bend for this showdown.
Notre Dame has beaten Stanford seven of the last eight years with the only loss coming last November in California when the Cardinal scored a 45-38 win but the Irish cashed as 10-point ‘dogs. Notre Dame has cashed in seven of the last nine meetings with Stanford, including three of the last four at home.
The Cardinal have not won at Notre Dame in 18 years, and I know their offense has been lighting up the scoreboard this season and QB Andrew Luck has been mentioned in some Heisman Trophy talk, but the Irish have an offense that can keep up with the Cardinal.
Last year, Notre Dame had 340 yards passing against Stanford and QB Dayne Crist has played very good football so far this season with seven TD passes and just two INTs. Crist threw for 369 yards and four TDs against Michigan State last week, but he’s got to get some defensive help as the Irish have been torched for 443.7 yards per game this season.
Brian Kelly prides himself in being able to develop a defense and he will get things turned around for the Irish. They gave up just 12 points at home in the opener to Purdue and they will deliver a game today that will keep the Irish in this one.
Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a ‘dog while the Cardinal is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against independent teams. In this series, the underdog has taken four of the last five clashes. Go ahead and grab the points with Notre Dame.
4♦ NOTRE DAME
Scott Delaney
West Virginia at LSU (-9)
Jordan Jefferson may be inconsistent at times - but he's a beast, and is surgical at times as well, dissecting through secondaries like nobody's business.
Laugh if you want, but I like the way Les Miles has handled the passing woes at LSU and how he instills confidence in Jefferson, by putting the pressure on the team's highly talented receiving corps - not Jefferson!
In its past two games, LSU had fewer than 100 yards passing and has yet to score a touchdown through the air; yet the Tigers won by three-plus touchdowns each week and are 3-0.
Now with the Mountaineers converging upon Death Valley, I'm guessing this is the week the Tigers need to open things up with their passing game, if they want to challenge 22nd-ranked West Virginia's explosive offense.
Not that I think the Mountaineers' offense that is averaging nearly 29 points will do much, as LSU once again has a ferocious stop unit that recorded six sacks at Vanderbilt and five interceptions against Mississippi State.
And I can tell you personally after watching highlights of the Vandy game and most of the Mississippi State game, that Jefferson's pass completion percentage likely would have been higher if not for receiver's mistakes.
This is the game they're going to need to step up and provide the support for Jefferson he'll need. The defense will do its part - after all, I saw how Marshall disrupted the Mounties - and that willgive Jefferson all the opportunities he will need.
LSU is winning by an average margin of 14 points, and that came against an ACC foe and two SEC opponents. No cupcakes in the early going for Miles' boys.
Lay the chalk with the Tigers.
3♦ LSU
Chuck O'Brien
Oregon (-11') at ARIZONA STATE
My second free college football selection on Saturday comes in Pac-10 action, as I’ll take Oregon and lay the big number at Arizona State.
Like Alabama-Arkansas, this is another inflated pointspread, but with the way Oregon has come out of the chute (three wins by a combined score of 189-13) and with Arizona still stinging from a crushing loss at Wisconsin (a blocked extra-point cost the Sun Devils a shot at overtime in a 20-19 loss), I’m not worried about laying a few additional points.
Admittedly, you can question the quality of Oregon’s competition so far (Portland State, New Mexico and a Tennessee team in transition), but you can’t question the way the Ducks have stepped on the necks of all three foes in such a convincing fashion. Chip Kelly’s squad is playing with a ton of confidence on both sides of the football, and while the Sun Devils certainly deserve a lot of credit for hanging with Wisconsin on the road, again, I’m concerned about their ability to bounce back after losing in the manner they did.
Oregon has owned this series, winning and covering the last five meetings in a row, and all in blowout fashion: 44-21 (home), 54-20 (road), 35-23 (home), 48-13 (road underdog!) and 31-17 (road). In fact, not only have the Ducks outscored ASU 133-50 in its last three trips to Tempe, but they outgained the Sun Devils by a whopping 785 yards in those three wins!
Oregon has a big revenge game against Stanford next week, but I trust Kelly to keep his troops focused on the task at hand. It won’t be a fourth straight 35-plus-point win – Arizona State’s defense is pretty good – but certainly the Ducks have the ability get this one by three touchdowns.
2♦ OREGON