World Wide Sports
USC vs. Arizona State
Play: Arizona St +6
Arizona State needs this game to get back in the national rankings. The USC Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games plus 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with winning records. Arizona State is 5-2-1 in their last eight games as a home underdog.
Harry Bondi
GEORGIA TECH (-9) over Duke
We had Notre Dame (+2.5) over Georgia Tech outright last Saturday as a 4-Star winner for the “Steam Team” as part of our 8-1 Las Vegas Invasion Weekend, but look for the Rambling Wreck to bounce back big here in a monster revenge game, after Duke pulled off the road upset last year. Despite the loss at ND, GT is still 11-6 ATS in its last 17 and are putting up 52 points per game on offense. They show no mercy here today.
Andrew Lange
Maryland at West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -16.5
Following two easy wins and a bye week, West Virginia takes a small step up in class as it plays host to rival Maryland. Following Week 2's embarrassing 48-27 loss to Bowling Green, the Terps bounced back with a 35-17 win over South Florida.
Heading into last week's game, Maryland made a switch at quarterback as Caleb Rowe stepped in for Perry Hills. Rowe seemed to make a positive impact as the passing game produced nearly 300 yards and four touchdowns. It was far from a perfect showing however as Rowe tossed three interceptions (16-15 TD-INT career ratio), the team fumbled three times but managed to regain possession in each instance, the ground game produced a dismal 114 yards on 3.4 ypc, and UM committed 12 penalties for 120 yards. Maryland will need a much cleaner performance if it is going to compete in Morgantown.
Not much of a body of work for West Virginia though Week 1's blowout win over Georgia Southern looks semi-impressive with the Eagles dominating Western Michigan 43-17 the following week. Quarterback Skyler Howard has looked the part since stepping in for Clint Trickett late last season. In five games - three of which vs. the Big XII - Howard has thrown 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. I am however curious how he performs against tougher competition now that Kevin White and Mario Alford are gone (174 catches, 2,392 yards, 21 TDs combined last year). In those aforementioned Big XII games, the duo accounted for a majority of Howard's production.
Last year's meeting was a wild one as West Virginia jumped out to 28-6 lead, Maryland came back to tie it, 37-37, and then WVU kicked a field goal with no time on the clock to win 40-37. The box score told a different story however with big edges (694-447 total yards) for West Virginia. The equalizer was the Mountaineers' four turnovers.
I'm not sure West Virginia's bye week is all that positive, especially after not being challenged at all its first two games. Maryland meanwhile has already gone through some adversity and is off a positive performance last week. That said, I don't like what I see out of Maryland with no response vs. Bowling Green and a sloppy effort vs. woeful South Florida. The Terps were manhandled each and every step-up-in-class situation last season with blowout losses to Ohio State (52-24), Wisconsin (52-7), Michigan State (37-15), and Stanford (45-21). Had it not been for four turnovers - three inside Maryland's 30-yard line - and a blocked field goal - West Virginia would have been on that list as well. Home side rolls in this one.
Alex Smith
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Texas Christian vs. Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech +7.5
It's a Big XII Battle in Lubbock on Saturday as Texas Tech hosts the third-ranked TCU in what shapes up to be an battle of high-octane offensive attacks. The Red Raiders pulled out a big upset road win against Arkansas last week as quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 243 yards and offense produced 8.38 yards per play. Defensively, it wasn’t a bad showing for TTU. After allowing the Razorbacks to run for 438 yards (6.4 ypc) in last year’s blowout loss in Lubbock, the Red Raiders surrendered a far more modest 228 yards (5.30 ypc). TCU won a 57-36 shootout against SMU with Trevone Boykin throwing for 454 yards and 5 TDs. While the offense was clicking as usual for the Frogs, there were some unfortunate casualties on defense as CB Ranthony Texada is out for the season after suffering a knee injury and DE Terrell Lathan also left the contest early with a shoulder issue. Along with the recent suspension of DE Mike Tuaua, head coach Gary Patterson will have to really juggle around a unit that already has two safeties playing at linebacker due to previous injuries. All told, SMU rolled up 330 passing yards at an alarmingly high 10.6 yards per attempt. To compare, Baylor's high-powered passing attack produced 9.3 ypa vs. TCU in last year's meeting. You can bet Texas Tech will do everything it can to exploit TCU’s current deficiencies in the secondary.
The situation for this year's meeting is far different than what we witnessed last season. The two teams hooked up midseason with Texas Tech already in the midst of what would be a total collapse. The end result was an 82-27 disgrace as the Horned Frogs rolled up 785 total yards. This year, I think Texas Tech is in a far better place health-wise, mentally, and defensively. And after last week's showing against SMU, I really think Tech will move the ball on TCU's questionable secondary. Should be a really entertaining game and one that the home underdog keeps close.
Ian Cameron
USC at Arizona State
Play: Over 63
Offenses should have the upper hand in Saturday’s PAC-12 showdown in Tempe. USC has had no problems moving the football with quarterback Cody Kessler throwing for close to 1,000 yards at a 78.7% completion rate and a sparkling 10-0 TD-INT ratio. The Trojans piled up over 50 points in their first two games against Idaho and Arkansas State and proved their offense is good enough to be productive against better competition when they hung 31 points and 427 total yards against a very solid Stanford defense last week despite the losing effort. This bodes well considering in its one true test this season against Texas A&M, Arizona State’s defense was gashed for 425 total yards (178 rushing, 247 passing) and 38 points. In last year’s meeting vs. USC, the Sun Devils allowed nearly 500 yards and 34 points
On the flip side, ASU’s offense has yet to click. It took them an entire half to get going against woeful New Mexico and looked sluggish against Cal Poly and Texas A&M. In reading reports, the team feels it is close to turning the corner. Unlike Taylor Kelly, Mike Bercovici isn’t much of a runner but instead has the ability to throw down field. Following the departure of Jalen Strong (NFL) and season-ending injury to Cameron Smith, the Sun Devils are still searching for new go-to receivers to emerge and help stretch the field. Saturday’s opponent offers a good opportunity to get things rolling. USC made Stanford’s Kevin Hogan look like the second coming of Andrew Luck. Hogan completed 18 passes for 279 yards which comes out to an incredible 12.1 yards per attempt. That is a massive red flag considering Stanford’s offense could barely move the football against Northwestern in Week 1.
Scoring and offense haven't been an issue for either team in this series. Over the last five meetings, both teams have averaged close to 900 yards of offense and 72 points per game. The only game to go under of the bunch came in a 9-turnover slopfest back in 2012 that USC won 38-17. We'll look to play Saturday's game under the lights over the total.
Brad Diamond
Navy vs. Connecticut
Play: Navy -6½
This is one of the more interesting EASTERN EDGES coming Saturday afternoon up in Connecticut. The Huskies show off a valiant effort versus SEC Mizzou on the road losing 9-6, but covering the hefty number. The Tigers averaged only 2.5 yards per rush playing without stellar RB Russell Hansbrough. This allowed the secondary of UConn to play off the ball cutting the timing patterns for the passing attack. Mizzou totaled just 270 yards of offense? UConn was 2-10 last season and returned just 14 starters…Began the season defeating Villanova 20-15, then handling Army 22-17 but, dropping the money in Vegas -7 on the closing board. This week they face upstart Navy who last week crushed East Carolina (-4-1/2) 45-21 after scoring 28 points in the first-half and then coasting to an easy win. The Middies ran for 415 yards with QB Reynolds accruing 145 of the total on his own. Granted Navy returns just 10 starters, but have a senior laden offense that averaged 31.8 points last season. In 2014 the Middies finished 8-5 SU vs. UConn’s 2-10 SU. In common opponents during 2014 Navy won over Temple 31-24, the Huskies lost to the Owls 36-10. Against Army, Navy won out 17-10, UConn was drubbed 35-21. UCONN is 7-17-1 ATS as an underdog since 2011 and 3-10 L13 board games. We know Navy has a revenge game versus Air Force next week, but the line has already reflected same going from -10-1/2-to-6-1/2.
Tony Stoffo
San Diego State vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -15
Penn State is fresh off a 28-3 win over Rutgers while San Diego State was shocked last week, losing to South Alabama 34-27 as 17.5 point favorites. The Aztecs were outgained 511-305 & out and lost in First Downs made 23-14. The Aztec QB has a 46% completion rate after three games which makes it easy for Penn State’s defense to plan: stack the box, stop the run, beg their QB to beat us. Penn State own the 12th best run Defense. This is just San Diego St’s 3rd trip to the East coast since 1991 and they are 1-1 SU/ATS. Technical edges highly favor PSU as they are 10-5 ATS vs non-conf and 12-7 as a HF, while SDSt is just 8-15 ATS vs non-conf and 2-4 as an AD. I played this game Monday morning at Penn St -13.5 but I still like it up to -16.5.
Otto Sports
North Texas at Iowa
Play: Under 54
In order to get this game over the current total of 54, you'll need faith that North Texas can not only move the football but put points on the board. Dating back to last season, the Mean Green haven't been able to do either. Last season, playing in defense-less C-USA, North Texas averaged only 21.9 ppg. This season, they managed only 240 total yards against a well below average SMU defense and last week struggled for three quarter to score against another sub-par defense in Rice. Had it not been for a garbage time 93-yard touchdown pass, North Texas may not have topped 400 yards of offense. Now they go on the road to face a very capable Iowa defense.
North Texas is in a bind because quarterback Andrew McNulty is completing 50% of his passes meaning in order to stick around, they'll need to run the football. The problem with that is Iowa hasn't allowed anything on the ground this season with three opponents combining for 153 yards at 1.87 ypc. Barring any short field turnovers, I have a difficult time envisioning North Texas scoring more than two touchdowns.
Iowa's offense has been very balanced thus far with 694 yards through the air and 575 on the ground through three games. And once again the Hawkeyes are comfortable churning clock and chewing up yardage at a pedestrian clip. Iowa's three games averaged 127 total plays and while North Texas talked about going up-tempo during the preseason, we've yet to see anything remotely close to that.
With a big game at Wisconsin on deck, Iowa seems likely to get out of dodge with a solid win by margin. A sloppy fourth quarter with multiple touchdowns is the only way this game doesn't go under total.
Harry Bondi
NAVY (-7) over UConn
We used Navy (-4.5) over East Carolina in an easy 45-21 blowout for a newsletter winner last week and we’ll lay the points again this week with the Midshipmen. Very quietly, Navy QB Keenan Reynolds is having a “Heisman-like” season after two games. In two wins, Reynolds has directing the offense to 786 rushing yards and 93 points with just one turnover and with six rushing TDs this season and 70 in his career he is well on his way to breaking the all-time NCAA record of 77 by Wisconsin’s Monte Ball. Not only are the Midshipmen 2-0 straight up and against the spread, but they have covered 18 of their last 28 overall and are a rock-solid 67% play against the spread (72-35) the last 20 years on the road. This is one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the country, so we don’t expect any kind of a letdown here against a UConn team that averages just 16 points per game and won’t be able to keep up with Navy. The Huskies don’t have a true home field advantage (6-10 ATS the last three years) and their defense will struggle mightily against the powerful Navy offensive attack that is very difficult to prepare for, especially with just one week.
Andre Ramirez
Arizona +160
Winning on the road is tough especially when you face a Arizona defense that forced six turnovers in the first 3 games of the season. Arizona air attack is one of the best in the business, and UCLA will be without their star cornerback. Arizona is 11-3 ATS has a home conference underdog, while UCLA is just 4-10 ATS as a road chalk. According to my analysis, I have Arizona winning 42-31.
Strike Point Sports
LSU (-24) over Syracuse
We think the Orange are in big trouble this weekend. Syracuse has been looking solid since quarterback Terrell Hunt went down in their first game. Freshman quarterback Eric Dungey has sparked the team and the Orange faithful in to believing in this team. Dungey has made the Orange offense look viable. Something they have struggled with in years past. This is a terrible spot for Syracuse. With no Dungey, and this ridiculous kickoff time for their biggest game of the year, LSU is going to run all over the Orange. Leonard Fournette is going to have his way with the young Orange defense. LSU is making a run at an SEC title and they know they also have to take care of business in nonconference games. Look for LSU to control the clock on the road and to win this game by closer to 5 touchdowns than what the line suggests. Take the big road favorite in this one as LSU crushes the Orange fans hopes early en route to a 45-10 victory.
Robert Ferringo
Massachusetts (+27.5) over Notre Dame
I think that this is too many points for the Irish to lay out in a game that they absolutely do not care about. Yes, Notre Dame has laid out Texas and Georgia Tech in South Bend this year. But those were big, important games for the Irish. This is not. In fact, just the opposite. This game is like the Super Bowl for UMass, a team that's only been in FBS for about 15 minutes. Notre Dame has a major game at Clemson next week, and that makes this one a bit of a look-ahead situation for the Irish. I think they'll be sloppy, and this one should be a grinder. I can see it somewhere in the neighborhood of 33-13, giving the home team a win and giving us the cash.
Alan Harris
USC / Arizona St Over 63
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet in one of the late games on Saturday night when the USC Trojans travel to take on the Arizona St. Sun Devils at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe. The Sun Devils have posted a 15-7 record to the over in their last 22 games following a win of 20 points or more, and they have an excellent 21-10 record to the over in their last 31 games where they faced a team with a winning record. The Trojans have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone 4-1 to the over in their last five games overall dating back to the 2014 season. Throw in the fact that these two teams have posted a 6-2 record to the over in their last eight meetings in Tempe, in addition to a 4-1 record to the over in their last five overall, and that's where we'll have our Free play on Saturday in a game that we expect to be an old fashioned Pac 12 shootout.
DAVE COKIN
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL VS. LOUISIANA TECH
PLAY: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL +14
There isn’t any question that Louisiana Tech warrants the favorite’s role as they take the field on Saturday against Florida International. But I’ll make the case that the visiting Panthers are catching more than enough points to give them a great chance to at least notch a spread cover.
This is not a great scheduling spot for the Bulldogs. They’re returning home a bit wounded after absorbing two gut wrenching losses at Western Kentucky and Kansas State. I’m wondering about how much crowd support will be on hand at Ruston as well. There’s a “red out” scheduled for this game, but indications are that the ticket sales are a bit slow and that there just isn’t a great deal of enthusiasm for this matchup.
Florida International already has one road upset under its belt and narrowly missed a second. The Panthers got the outright win as double digit dogs against Central Florida, and the two-TD loss at Indiana was very misleading. FIU was driving for the tie, but they fumbled at the Indiana two yard line and the Hoosiers took it to the house to create a 14-point swing.
FIU is not especially dynamic on offense, although I do like their QB. But the Panthers are not strong on the offensive line and let’s just say Ron Turner doesn’t want his team getting into a shootout on Saturday. If the staunch Panthers defense against the run is maintained, they shouldn’t have to sweat that eventuality. That makes Kenneth Dixon the likely most important player on the field Saturday. If he gets contained, FIU figures to be right in this game. If Dixon gets rolling, the road team is in deep trouble.
The big edge for Florida International is that they have an excellent chance of being the fresher team with La Tech off two wild games. I’m sure there’s a sense of urgency with the Bulldogs as they obviously cannot afford another conference loss this early. But it’s nevertheless not the easiest thing for a team to be laying two TD’s when coming home off two excruciating defeats.
I’m a big fan of backing underdogs that excel at stopping the run. FIU fits join that category and they also would appear to have some value off my two strongest sets of power ratings. I made this Louisiana Tech -11, so I’m getting what I feel is the best of it on the number. Mix in the potential advantages previously described and there’s more than enough here to grab the two touchdowns with FIU to get me a spread winner.