Sam Martin
Missouri vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -3
Two weeks ago there were 10 SEC teams ranked in the Top 25. This week, we're down to six, and we believe one of them (Missouri) is about to make another exit. No reason for the Tigers to be anywhere near the Top 25 based on what they have done on the field, and we'll jump on the line value and fade them to lose big at Kentucky this Saturday. Missouri is 3-0 straight up but 0-3 ATS. They beat up an overmatched SE Missouri State team in their season opener, but could only beat Arkansas State by a single touchdown in Week 2. Last Saturday, they escaped with a three-point home win against Connecticut as the Huskies went for a fake field goal in the closing moments instead of trying for overtime. Missouri has been held to under 100 yards twice and under 200 yards passing twice despite their very easy non-conference schedule, and this Kentucky team is by far their stiffest test of the season. Wildcats confidence is sky high after winning on the road at South Carolina and hanging with Florida last week (lost by 5). The fact that unranked Kentucky is a solid favorite against a ranked Mizzou team is everything you need to know. Tigers exposed as another SEC fraud and drop out of the rankings after a loss this Saturday.
Scott Spreitzer
BYU vs. Michigan
Play: BYU +5½
The argument against the Cougars tends to include the early season tough schedule catching up to them. But I believe the argument against Michigan is greater. Before the season we stated that the Wolverines would struggle in quality matchups due in part to Jim Harbaugh not having the QB he wants to run his offense. Jake Rudock isn't bad, but he's certainly not the type of talent who'll lead Michigan to the top of the Big-10. Despite his experience gained at Iowa, Rudock throws too many errant passes. He's already thrown five picks this season with just three TDs, and he's averaging just 6.4 yards per pass. No offense to Michigan, but they are the "softest" opponent BYU will have faced to date in my opinion. I trust BYU QB Tanner Mangum, mature beyond his freshman status, to lead the hardened BYU offense to a winning day. The Cougars are on a 5-1 ATS non-conference run, while the Wolverines are 1-8 ATS in their last nine September games.
Frank Jordan
LSU vs. Syracuse
Play: LSU -24.5
LSU has started the season off with a pair of wins over ranked SEC teams with a 21-19 victory at Mississippi State then ranked 25th and last time out over 18th Auburn 45-21. In those two victories the Tigers have scored only one TD through the air as that is all they need with eight coming on the ground. The yards have also come more on the ground 677 against 145. Syracuse is 3-0 early on in this season with a 47-0 win over Rhode Island, 30-17 win over Wake Forest and 30-27 victory in overtime over Central Michigan. This is their biggest game to this point playing their first ranked opponent welcoming in number 8 LSU to the Carrier Dome. Syracuse has been balanced with six TD scores through the air and four on the ground, but had more rushing yards 626 than passing yards 496 and have been touched up for two interceptions. This will be a battle on the ground game, but if Syracuse wants to keep it close at all they will need to keep pace scoring they need to scoring through the passing game. Look for Syracuse to keep it close in the first half, but in the second half it will be all LSU as the Orange run out of gas trying too keep up and LSU pulls away winning 49-21.
Jim Feist
Southern Mississippi at Nebraska
Play: Southern Mississippi
Southern Mississippi (2-1) has been better than advertises, with an uptempo offense tallying 52 and 56 the last two games. They even covered in a loss to Mississippi State of the SEC with 413 yards it was 14-10 at the half). The Golden Eagles are 5-0 ATS in non conference games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. They face a reeling Nebraska team that is 1-2 with defensive problems. They come in off an emotional loss, coming from way back to tie Miami, then losing in OT, 36-33. The Huskers were outhit by Miami's defense and outflanked by Miami's offense. A cornerback who was down in the dumps during the previous game stayed there until NU defensive coordinator Mark Banker wisely pulled him. The Huskers started missing tackles again. They gave up chunk plays on the ground and through the air again. Nebraska is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 home games, so grab the dog.
Drew Martin
Missouri at Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -3
Saturday marks the fourth SEC meeting between Missouri and Kentucky with the Tigers winning and covering the last three in dominating fashion. In those three contests, Mizzou outscored UK 101-37, including last year's 20-10 win in Columbia.
The main issue for Missouri has been offense with less than 300 yards against Arkansas State and Connecticut. The Tigers are averaging 3.2 yards per rush and quarterback Maty Mauk just 5.9 per pass attempt. They rank 109th nationally in points per game (23.3), 116th in total yards per game (325) and 119th in rushing yards per game (107.7). And that's against far less competition that what they’ll see on Saturday. On the season Mauk has completed just 52.5% of his passes to go with four interceptions. The Tigers' ground game should get a boost this week as running back Russell Hansbrough is slated to return. The senior rushed for over 1,000 yards last year but missed last week and has carried the ball just seven times after spraining his right ankle in the opener.
Kentucky’s defense will be nearing full strength with the likely return of senior linebacker Ryan Flannigan who missed the first three games and much of fall camp with a shoulder injury. He will join an already drastically improved stop unit that last week limited Florida to 245 total yards at 4.15 yards per play. After moving the football will ease the first two games of the season against UL-Lafayette and South Carolina, UK's offense took a big step back with only 241 total yards in the loss to Florida. It's not something to ignore but I believe by season's end the Gators' defensive numbers will be among the best in the nation. Missouri's defense has looked the part (3.26 ypp allowed) but hasn't in any way been tested with games against FCS SEMO, Arkansas State, and UConn. Look for Kentucky to make the appropriate adjustments and have more success moving the football, particularly on the ground, against a completely rebuilt Missouri front line.
Missouri may have the slight overall edge defensively but I see a mountain of red flags regarding its offense. The total indicates a low scoring affair of which I agree. The prefered play however is the home side at less than a field goal.
Sleepyj
Syracuse +24.5
I'll grab 3TD's ,1FG and a hook here..I'm not sold on LSU at all...I think it's rather comical that the heads to be have this team ranked as high as they do...These guys will do anything to vault a fraud SEC team into the top ten...Fact is this LSU team isn't that good..They rely on one player and that's about it on the offensive end..That will catch up with them sooner or later...Teams will force the QB to beat them throwing..I doubt he can do it either....Brandon Harris is the starting QB for the Tigers..He has a total of 31 passes on the year and 21 completions...When the rushing game is double in ypp..That's not good...This is really a 3 man team on offense..The QB, who can throw and pass, Fournette, and a WR by the name of Dural....Sure they can beat Syracuse, but i think this is that one game that has the TV screen keeping an eye on them because they have a legit shot to lose here....Now when it comes to the Tiger defense i'm not sold on them either...I think Auburn and Miss St are both frauds....Auburn can't score on Jacksonville St and they got lumped by a running team in LSU last week...LSU hasn't played anyone that is tough yet this year IMO...A trip to Syracuse should wake them up.....Orangemen have started the year 3-0 and this game is at home...I think the Orangemen offense can score..They avg about 30 ppg....Syracuse was looking ahead last week to this game..Maybe the defense is a little better than most think...For the record i thought the Syracuse defense would be rather bad this year..I have watched them and going up against a one dimensional team should make them a game out here...Syracuse offense has a number of guys they can throw at this Tigers defense, i think Syracuse will take all kinds of shots to win this game..I won't be surprised to see a few bombs and maybe even some trick plays..Special teams might be key though for either side...Syracuse QB Eric Dingey will start the game and he has looked "ok"...I'm sure the Orangemen will be ready and waiting for this challenge...LSU scares me none here...Give me the points..I think this one is razor close...I'm not buying into another fraud SEC team...Stop Fournette, LSU will struggle...Orange will load up to stop this guy today.
Cajun Sports
Baylor -34
The Baylor Bears will play host to the Rice Owls on Saturday afternoon. The oddsmakers have hung a large number on them for this game and there is of course good reason for that number. Our numbers tell us the Bears will cover this spread rolling over this group of owls. We want to Play ON CFB home favorites of more than three touchdowns coming off a bye week. This system has been solid hitting over 71 percent with a record of 74-30 ATS.
Rob Veno
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas
Play: Arkansas +7.5
Opening the season with four consecutive home games in which they figured to be favored in all seemed like a sure path into the top 15 for Arkansas. But following a pair of embarrassing losses the past two weeks, the Razorbacks aren’t a sure thing to finish the season above .500. Meanwhile, Kevin Sumlin’s offense and new DC John Chavis’ defense have Texas A&M (3-0, No. 14) exceeding almost every preseason projection. Line movement from the opener to this mid-week writing shows money jumping off of the Arkansas bandwagon which was the hot ticket in town throughout the preseason.
We’re at that stage of the season where certain games dictate that you have to at least incorporate spot-play potential into your handicap. Spot plays aren’t as mechanical as they once were for college football bettors but they still exist and this contest fits the description. Can the spot override the fundamentals is the key question here?
On the field there are plenty of things contributing to Arkansas’ 1-2 record and there’s a couple that the Aggies should have no trouble capitalizing on. Zoom in on the Razorbacks’ pass defense numbers and you could immediately jump to the conclusion that Texas A&M will have a field day. Through three games, Arkansas opponents have completed 70.5% of their passes including the ridiculous 87.1% posted by Texas Tech’s “Air Raid” system last week. Obviously the Aggies’ up-tempo style has some similarities to Texas Tech’s and with their skill players they should be able to exploit Arkansas’ weakness. The key matchup here and what could decide whether A&M throws at will on Saturday will be who wins the pass rush/protection battle. There have been 88 pass attempts against them thus far and Arkansas has recorded just one sack. It’s understood that Texas Tech gets the ball out quickly and Toledo does too but they also played UTEP. However, the Aggies have thrown the football 100 times this season and allowed 10 sacks so maybe Arkansas has an opponent they can can finally pressure. When Arkansas throws, the same battle exists as the Razorbacks have yet to allow a sack on any of their 94 pass attempts while A&M’s blitz happy defense has registered 15 sacks on the 97 pass attempts against them (1 every 6.5).
Each team runs the ball well and uses that to balance out their offense. Texas A&M has run the ball on 57.2% of its plays this season resulting in 46.5% of their total yardage and Arkansas has not faced a run game of this caliber in its first three games. Can they take any piece of Texas A&M’s potent offense away? Sure the Aggies played defensive lightweights Ball State and Nevada but they did gain 425 total yards against a good Arizona State group. Conversely, A&M will have to deal with the Arkansas’ massive offensive front which is currently paving the way to 476.3 total yards per game. However, the Aggies have dealt with three consecutive diverse offensive schemes and none of them eclipsed 361 total yards. The difference between those opponents and Arkansas is the size and physical nature of the Hogs’ offensive line; can Texas A&M neutralize them is the question?
Observant handicappers and bettors see the evolution of the Arkansas offense which is what head coach Bret Bielema wanted but thus far their new found ability to run and pass effectively hasn’t resulted in as many wins as they would have liked. Should Arkansas go back to being a run oriented, slow-the-game-down type of team or do they stick with the more unpredictable, aggressive and efficient (7.1 yards per play) play calling of new OC Dan Enos? Already there are rumblings out of Fayetteville that the Hogs pass too much but it’s hard to back that up when you see the offense rolling like it is. Their larger problems are pass rush/defense and their third down defense (allowing 51.2% conversions). The latter is an area where Texas A&M has been sensational yielding a mere 23.4% third down conversion rate thus far. Offensive fronts vs. defensive fronts is what will ultimately decide this game but where the advantages are is just not real clear at this point. The visitors from College Station could very well be the superior team but the early season results indicate that it’s too early to proclaim A&M and write off Arkansas. A talented and desperate underdog of this size playing a divisional game with a presumed degree of urgency is enough to get me on board.
Coach Fletcher
Missouri / Kentucky Under 44.5
Defenses Top Offenses on Both Teams
Missouri and Kentucky meet Saturday in a game that should be enjoyable for people who enjoy defense. If you love offense, you might want to flip the station.
Missouri is an ugly 3-0. The opened with FCS level SE Missouri State and won 34-3 as 40.5 point favorites. The offense didn’t generate enough points to match the spread. The Tigers rushed for 98 yards in 33 carries. Yep, less than 3 yards per carry against SE Missouri State. Mizzou managed 319 yards passing. Their defense held SE Missouri State to 201 total yards.
Game 2 the Tigers squeaked by Arkansas State 27-20. Once against they failed to cover at -9.5 and for the 2nd straight time the total went under. Missouri only totaled 288 yards and Arkansas State managed just 217.
Game 3 wasn’t much different. As 21 point favorites Missouri outlasted Connecticut 9-6. For the 3rd straight game the total went under. Missouri had 270 yards of total offense and that was barely enough to top U Conn’s output of 233.
In the first 3 games Missouri was favored by a total of 50 points. They only scored 70 while giving up 29. The totals added up to 151 and 99 total points were scored.
Kentucky has shown a little bit more offense and a little less defense. In their first game they won a shoot-out with LA Lafayette by a 40-33 score. They didn’t cover the -16.5 line but did exceed the total of 58. Kentucky totaled 435 yards of offense and gave up 479. That’s not too good.
The defense showed up in game 2 against South Carolina at South Carolina. As 7 point dogs, the Wildcats beat South Carolina 26-22, under the total of 56. Kentucky pounded out 387 yards total but held South Carolina to 417, with 195 on the ground and 222 through the air.
Game 3 the competition got better and so did the defense. The Wildcats lost a tough one to mighty Florida by the score of 14-9. Kentucky was getting 3.5. The total, a generous 53, went under by 30 points. Missouri only managed 241 total yards of offense and Florida just 245.
In their last games, each team scored but 9 points and gave up an average of 10 points. 5 of the 6 games went under.
Missouri is having a tough time running the ball. They are average 108 yards per game on the ground and 217 in the air. They are also stubborn against the run giving up just 105 yards per game. In fact, Missouri defensively is giving up an average of only 217 total yards per game.
Kentucky’s offense is a little better than their defense. They have a fairly balanced output of 358 total yards per game but they give up a well-balanced (187,193) 370 yards per game. Florida is down this year so we can’t put as much confidence in that game, but Florida is still a good team. But the Kentucky offense comes in rated at 101 and that’s not positive.
So far this year Missouri is averaging 23.3 points per game. They are giving up an average 9.7. Kentucky is averaging 25 points per game and giving up an average of 23 points per game.
If we throw out the first games for each team when Missouri was favored by 40.5 and Kentucky by 16.5, we get a better story. Missouri averaged 18 points per game and gave up 13 points per game. Kentucky averaged 17.5 points per game and gave up 18 points per game. Those numbers fit nicely under a total of 44.5.
The teams haven’t played each other enough to get any decent numbers. But here they are. We’ll focus on the last two years when they played each other. Last year Missouri handled Kentucky 20-10 as 7.5 point favorites. The game went under the total of 47. In 2013 Missouri blasted Kentucky 48-17 as 14.5 point favorites and the game went over the total of 55.
Missouri’s offense has its issues. They are averaging just 3.2 yards per rush. They are averaging only 5.9 yards per passing attempt and have 4 picks. Missouri looks to be getting back 2 players on offense that could improve the scoring. The Tiger’s offense is ranked 119th in rushing yards against mediocre competition. QB Mauk has completed 52.5 % of his passes and averaged only 158 yards per game.
Defensively, Missouri will make it tough for Kentucky to run the ball. The Mizzou defense is giving up 2.6 yards per rush attempt. But in Williams and Kemp, the Wildcats have 2 decent running backs. The Tiger defense ranks 2nd nationally in tackles for loss, third nationally in passing yards allowed per game, fourth in total yards allowed and 5th in points allowed. Kentucky won’t have an easy time of it. The Tigers are the 16th rated team in run defense while Kentucky is the 103 rated team in rushing offense.
The key to this total is how either team decides to push the offense. Will they decide to abandon the run after finding little success? Or will they try to impose their will and run the ball. That would, of course, be ideal for under bettors. If both teams abandon the run and decide to air it out, under bettors should worry.
I think that these teams will definitely try to establish the run. I wouldn’t be surprised if the first quarter didn’t end up 0-0 unless there are turnovers. Missouri should be worried about its’ offense as it has regressed each week going from 34 to 27 to 9. That’s not a good sign even if the quality of teams has improved.
Kentucky’s defense could certainly be up to the task. Players like Henderson and Forrest are outstanding and the overall defense is decent. Kentucky’s problem is offense. Towles completed 33% of his passes last week with 2 picks and receivers had too many drops. Missouri has the best pass defense and best overall defense in SEC so far this season. It certainly won’t be easy for Towles. The Kentrell brothers and Brady will keep Towles and company honest on offense. Mauk has thrown 16 TD’s and 13 picks and Kentucky’s defense has intercepted 19 passes in its’ last 15 games. If they can’t move the ball through the air, it’s not likely that the running game can compensate for it.
I think this game should go under. Unless the teams decide to abandon the run entirely and go strictly to the air, I think the under is safe. I don’t believe that either coach trusts the quarterback enough to rely on a strict passing offense to win this game. Ideally we will see coaches run first, try to establish domination in the front lines, and pass as a relief.
Teddy Covers
Indiana vs. Wake Forest
Pick: Indiana -3.5
Very quietly, waaaaaay underneath the radar, the Indiana Hoosiers have opened the season with a 3-0 mark. Sure, they haven’t stepped up in class one iota, beating Southern Illinois, Florida International and Western Kentucky, all at home.
That being said, Western Kentucky has a better offense than the one they’ll face at Wake this week, and FIU’s defense may well be every bit as good as that of the Demon Deacons. In a ‘must reach a bowl game or get fired’ year for Hoosiers head coach Kevin Wilson in his fifth year on the job, these early season confidence inducing victories matter, especially with the meat of their Big 10 schedule immediately on the horizon – they’ve got Ohio State next week.
Indiana’s offense is good enough to score points on just about any defense. QB Nate Sudfeld led the Hoosiers to a road win at SEC East champs Missouri last year. The junior has thrown for more than 900 yards already this season, while RB Jordan Howard leads the nation with 507 rushing yards.
But the key to Indiana’s early season success has been the play of their defense. No, this isn’t an elite stop unit by any stretch of the imagination, but they are clearly better than they have been – a unit that has allowed at least 33 points per game in every year since 2010. The D came up with the game winning interception against FIU. Last week against the potent Hilltoppers, the Hoosiers D created a key second half turnover and another key fourth quarter stop that forced a field goal attempt.
Defensive coordinator Brian Knorr: “I think we’ve been able to get some pressure that created some quick throws.” Knorr was quick to credit the improved athleticism among Hoosier recruits, particularly in the secondary. And here’s a quote from Sudfeld talking about how the improved D is helping Indiana offensively: “It gives us a huge boost of momentum and confidence. We feel like when we get a turnover and all of the momentum is on our side, we just feel like we can’t not score. It just gives us the ball a little bit more and lets me put it in the hands of our running backs and receivers behind the O-line we have, we just feel really (good) about it.”
While Indiana is a longtime bottom feeder showing signs of real progress in 2015, Wake Forest is a longtime bottom feeder in a world of hurt right now. The Demon Deacons just lost starting quarterback John Wolford to an ankle injury, officially listed as ‘doubtful’ for Saturday. Their offensive line is leaky at best, while their skill position talent is virtually non-existent other than their lone downfield threat, KJ Brent, in sharp contrast to Indiana. Wake managed just 17 points against both Syracuse and Army over the last two weeks; not a team capable of outscoring anybody with backup QB Kendall Hinton (a better rusher than passer) behind center. To hang with Indiana, you’ve got to be able to score. To come from behind against Indiana, you’ve got to be able to score. Wake is not primed to trade scores with an explosive offense like this one.
Brandon Shively
Tennessee -120
This is the year that Tennessee to go into Gainesville and gets the win and this is my reasoning behind it.
In Florida's last 10 wins vs. Tennessee, Florida has outrushed Tennessee. I think this is the year that Tennessee has more rushing yards than Florida, and in effect get the win here. The Vols have the better running backs, offensive line, and quarterback.
Through 3 games, Tennessee is averaging 246 yards a game with Jalen Hurd and Kamura in the backfield toting the load.
Last year, Tennessee only had 28 rushing yards vs. Florida. It was the 5th game of the season and the offensive line was VERY young at this point at time as the Vols had only 6 returning starters on the line to begin the season. This year the O-line is much more experienced and they have a much more dynamic QB in Joshua Dobbs. Justin Worley was the QB last year when the Vols played the Gators. (Worley got sacked 6 times and the box score read 7 rushes for -45 yards). Joshua Dobbs has the quickness to escape the pocket and use his feet to make plays.
Suspensions: Florida's Jalen Tabor is suspended for this game. Tabor made a big play in last year's game as he sacked, stripped, and recovered a fumble by Worley that was the turning point in last year's game. Also Florida's backup QB Treon Harris is suspended for this game. Harris was also instrumental in last year's win vs. the Vols.
Additional Key Stats: Tennessee is ranked 8th in the nation in turnover margin and ranked 3rd in kickoff returns.
While Florida still has a stingy defense, it is the offense that is still a work in progress. While Tennessee had the inexperienced offensive line last year, it is Florida this season that has the inexperience on the line as they only have one returning starter on the line. Running back Kelvin Taylor is only averaging 3.9 yards a carry and that has been against lesser teams of New Mexico State, East Carolina, and Kentucky.
Tennessee starting senior safety LaDarrell McNeil returned from an injury last week with an interception against West Carolina. Curt Maggitt, the Vols senior linebacker, is out for the season but he is travelling with the team on Saturday and he will be the team's emotional and vocal leader on the sideline.
Tennessee has had an extra week to re-focus after the Oklahoma loss by playing Western Carolina last week. The Vols are the more talented and experienced team at most of the skill positions in this game. While this game is being played in Gainesville, it is a 3:30 PM EST start time and I don't think it is as much as an advantage as if it was being played at night time under the lights. Take the Vols on the Money Line.
Bill Biles
UL-Lafayette -7½
The Ragin' Cajuns are averaging 513 yards per game, with running back Elijah McGuire scoring five TDs on 41 carries. Akron does not have the offense to be able to keep up with ULL. Akron ranks 119 in college football, that wont get it done and UL-Lafayette wins this one easy.
Michael Alexander
LSU vs. Syracuse
Play: LSU -24
Syracuse comes into this one 3-0 for first time in 24 years, and rank 3rd in rushing defense. But keep in mind this record and stats were versus the likes of Rhode Island, Wake Forest, and Central Michigan. They also may have lost quarterback Dungey. After he got hurt they had only 13 yards and no first downs in the second half last week. LSU comes in owning a 677-203 rushing yard edge over Mississippi State and Auburn, with 387 yards and 6 touchdowns from running back Fournette who happens to be the #1 rusher in land. Don't worry about the number in this one as it will be over by halftime.
Freddy Wills
Nevada +105
Buffalo is 3-0 ATS, and that’s a shock to me, and their most recent game is quite misleading. They went and beat Florida Atlantic 33-15, but their offense only scored 10 points, and they were -200 yards against Florida Atlantic who was playing without their best player in QB Jacquez Johnson who was injured in the previous game. Buffalo’s defense has kept them above water with 8 turnovers, but still they are ranked 76th in sack % having played Penn State. Nevada comes into this game ranked 38th having played some pretty damn good teams in Arizona and Texas A&M.
For Nevada this is a long trip across the country, but it is a 3:30 game so I think they will be okay, and I think the talent level is bigger than the oddsmaker’s think. The MAC is played well this season which has created a lot of interest in backing teams from the MAC, but the MAC West is far inferior to the MAC East, and Buffalo should be one of the worst from the Mac West. I don’t like this offense that was supposed to be better and it’s already shown because they couldn’t move the ball on Florida Atlantic, an defense ranked 100th in the country. Nevada will benefit from playing 2 challenging games as well as having 15 extra bowl practices in 2014. They lost their QB Cody Fajardo which is everyone’s concern, but I didn’t think he was that good, and their new QB should get plenty of time while Buffalo’s QB will be under pressure in his own building.