Jack Jones
UCLA Bruins -3
The UCLA Bruins were very impressive in their first two games of the season. They outgained Virginia by 167 yards in a 34-16 home win, and then outgained UNLV by 289 yards in a 37-3 road victory. They were actually outgained by 3 years against BYU last week, but still came back and won 24-23. I believe that close result has them a little undervalued here, but BYU is a much better team than it gets credit for.
I am very down on Arizona this season. It was extremely fortunate to win the Pac-12 South last year as it went 7-2 in conference play despite getting outgained on the season in Pac-12 action. It won six games by a touchdown or less last year as well, getting extremely fortunate in close games.
I believe the ugly 42-32 win over UTSA in the opener is a sign of things to come for Arizona. The Wildcats were 32.5-point favorites in that game against a UTSA team that is the least experienced in the entire country with only six returning starters. In fact, the Wildcats were actually outgained by 133 total yards by the Roadrunners. Now, Arizona is likely without its best defensive player in Scooby Wright (163 tackles, 14 sacks, 29 TFL’s last season) for at least another week.
UCLA is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Arizona. Last year, the Bruins won 17-7 at home in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. In fact, the Bruins outgained the Wildcats 460-255 for the game, or by 205 total yards. They rushed for 271 yards on this soft Arizona defense and should find plenty of success on the ground again after rushing for 296 yards on BYU last week.
I believe the tough early schedule that UCLA has faced will work in its favor here. Playing solid programs like Virginia and BYU is much tougher than the slate Arizona has faced. Consider that Virginia nearly upset Notre Dame, while BYU upset both Nebraska and Boise State. Arizona has faced UTSA, Nevada and Northern Arizona. It is not battle-tested the way the Bruins are coming into this one.
Arizona is 0-6 ATS after covering the spread in two of its last three games over the past three seasons. The Wildcats are 44-72 ATS in their last 116 games following an ATS win. Arizona is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games following three or more consecutive wins. The Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.
Dave Price
Arkansas State +7
This is one of my favorite situations. We have a bowl rematch from last year after Toledo beat Arkansas State 63-44. There's no question Arkansas State is going to want revenge and will be the hungrier team in this one. Plus, Toledo is in the perfect letdown spot after beating two Power 5 conference teams in Arkansas and Iowa State the last two weeks. While those wins look impressive, they really weren't and the Rockets should have lost both games. They were outgained by 197 yards by Arkansas and by 172 against Iowa State. It's safe to say that they were extremely fortunate to win both games when you look a little deeper into the box scores. Arkansas State also nearly upset a Power 5 team in Missouri. It lost 20-27 at home after squandering a halftime lead. The Red Wolves were only outgained by 71 yards by the two-time defending SEC East champion Tigers. They were also only outgained by 108 yards by USC in their opener. They took out their frustration with a 70-7 win over Missouri State last week. The Red Wolves are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Jim Feist
Maryland / West Virginia Under
Totals on West Virginia are high -- too high, as the total has gone UNDER in 10 of West Virginia's last 11 games. Maryland is in town with a strong defense giving up 8.5 ppg. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Maryland's last 7 games on the road. Maryland likes to run to control the football and the clock and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of West Virginia's last 5 games at home. Play Maryland/West Virginia Under the total.
Wunderdog
Navy @ Connecticut
Pick: Under 47.5
The UConn Huskies are a better team than the last couple of years, but that is more about the defense than anything else, the offense is still a bottom 10 work in progress. UConn went to Missouri and held the Tigers to just 9 points, on the road a very solid and impressive defensive effort. The Huskies offense, however, managed just 6 points, and that has been the problem over the last 15 games that have seen the Huskie offense score more than 22 points just one time. Navy runs the option, but the Huskies have already seen it this year as they have faced Army, and teams that have seen the option already on the season, tend to defend it better than a team that did not. Navy has played five of their last six on the road to the UNDER, while the Huskies now 10-4 to the UNDER in their last 14 at home. And under Ken Niumatalolo, the Midshipment are 50-36 to the UNDER including 21-11 after an OVER. Take the UNDER.
Alex Smart
Indiana vs. Wake Forest
Play: Wake Forest +3½
Indiana comes into this contest with a perfect 3-0 record but the football program has a history of being inconsistent away from home and are 0-6 ATS L/6 on the road after a home game losing straight up by an average of 21.2 ppg. The Hoosiers also have in the past not dealt with success well, as they are 0-14 ATS L/14 after a game when they out rushed their opponent by 200 or more yards which happened in a come back victory vs Western Kentucky last week. Plus its never easy having to prepare for two QBs . Thats the situation the Hoosiers find themselves in because of Demon Deacon injuries (QB John Wolford ankle?). Wake Forests other QB Kendal Hilton the bull option is a night mare to guard against because of his running abilities. Either way Indiana has their hands full with a tough host and taking the points looks to be a viable investment opportunity!
Ari Atari
West Ham United vs. Norwich City
Play: West Ham United +125
A home win here for the Hammers looks very likely. Croatian coach Bilic was not expected by most to succeed after Allardyce was fired, but so far he is proving doubters very wrong. He appears to be trying to mirror the formation which worked well for him as Croatia manager, with a strong defence and holding midfielder, quickly getting the ball forward to his creative players to do what they do best. As such, West Ham have played with a refreshing style and verve this season under his management, which is very much summed up in one player.
Midfielder Payet has been a revelation so far and looks electric every time he gets the ball. He is direct, fast and skillful and scares opposition defenders with his quick runs. He also has the vision to pick a pass for a team mate and has already found the net himself three times for the Hammers this season.
I expect him and powerful winger Moses to cause a lot of problems for the Norwich defense. Norwich have looked almost solid if not unspectacular so far this term. They managed to pick up a point from an awful Liverpool team last weekend, but West Ham, at home, in the form they are in, will prove to be too much for them this time around.
AC Dinero
Central Michigan vs. Michigan State
Play: Central Michigan +24
Michigan St comes in with high expectations as they prepare for the Big 10 slate. The offense is solid behind NFL prospect QB Connor Cook. But the defense isn't as stout as it has been in recent years. They host a Cent Michigan team that lost a heart breaker at Syracuse last week. This is a solid MAC program, especially on offense, and I feel they can stay within 24 points
Chase Diamond
Arkansas State vs. Toledo
Play: Arkansas State +7
This under the radar game has the 1-2 Arkansas State at the 2-0 Toledo. Toledo has upset Arkansas and beat Iowa State pretty soundly they might not be as up for playing the Wolves today. This is a rematch of a bowl game last season that Arkansas State lost and getting 7 with this revenge minded team is a gift. I spoke to several offshore sources and all 3 were going heavy on Ark State. 63% of the public are betting the home Toledo team here and this line has dropped 2 points.
Doug Upstone
Wisconsin -24½
Play on home favorites of 21.5 or more points like WISCONSIN, having won two out of their last three games, with a team from a Power 5 conference, against a team from a lower tier conference. This has to do with the matchup, situation and talent difference and in the last five years favorites like the Badgers are 13-2 ATS in this spot, including seven straight covers.
Stephen Nover
Ball St at Northwestern
Play: Ball St. +20
Northwestern is off to a great start winning and covering its first three games. The Wildcats already own upset victories against Stanford and Duke.
But the Wildcats are in a flat spot here. They just knocked off Duke on the road last week and host Minnesota next week in their Big Ten opener. The Wildcats are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games.
Ball State has covered 71 percent of its past 63 road contests. The Cardinals rallied from 17 points down to beat Eastern Michigan last week giving them a boost of confidence for this step-up game. Ball State didn't surrender a point during the final 37:23 of that game.
The Cardinals are a MAC school and treating this game with a lot more importance than Northwestern. The last time Ball State met a Big 10 team was in Game 2 of last season taking 18 points at Iowa. The Cardinals were in that game the entire way losing, 17-13.
Northwestern has been outstanding defensively. But the right formula is in place for Ball State to cover this large spread.
Ball State runs the ball well. Darian Green leads the MAC in rushing yards. The Cardinals have rushed for at least 199 yards in each of their last six games. They have a lot of veterans, including four senior starting offensive linemen, and a steady respected coach in Pete Lembo.
The Cardinals also have upgraded themselves at quarterback turning to freshman Riley Neal, who sparked their comeback victory against Eastern Michigan accounting for 280 passing/rushing yards.
The second part of the equation is that Northern is not dynamic offensively. Discounting their game against Eastern Illinois, the Wildcats are averaging 17.5 points. They managed just two touchdowns during those games.
The Wildcats are not much of a passing team ranking 122nd. They are not a team to be laying this high of a number.
Matt Fargo
Arkansas St vs. Toledo
Pick: Arkansas St.
Toledo has defeated two straight power teams for the first time ever so can you say letdown? The Rockets defeated Arkansas on the road and then took out Iowa St. at home in overtime last Saturday but taking a closer look shows they could very well be 0-2 at this point. While they have looked great on the scoreboard, they have been outgained by 197 and 172 yards so those are skewed victories. Obviously, the scoreboard is what counts here but these types of results backed by the numbers cannot continue. Arkansas St. opened the season 0-2 with a blowout loss at USC and then a home loss against Missouri but bounced back in a big way last week as it took its frustrations out on Missouri St. by hanging 70 points on the Bears and that was without quarterback Fredi Knighten who will be back this week. Granted, that was a team from the FCS but a big win like that can turn things around quickly and there will be no lack of motivation going into this game. The Red Wolves went to their fourth straight GoDaddy Bowl last season and got embarrassed by the Rockets as they allowed 63 points despite getting outgained by just 73 total yards. Two defensive touchdowns played a big part so they will be out for some revenge. This is the first time since 2009-2010 that Arkansas St. has had the same head coach in consecutive seasons so while still successful in the most recent years, greater potential is expected this season.
River City Sharps
Bowling Green -1.5
There are many quarterback changes around the country in places where there are too many good choices, and several other situations where the HC might not have one good option. That appears to be the case for Purdue HC Darrell Hazell, who this week announced he is giving the job to redshirt freshman David Blough after several weeks where junior Austin Appleby was simply ineffective for the Boilermakers. This Saturday, they get a pretty stiff test as Bowling Green and their high powered offense visit West Lafayette. Hazell really had no choice as Appleby had thrown six picks in just three starts, including two that were taken to the house by the opposition. The Falcons are a team that scores lots of points and are led by QB Matt Johnson, who leads all FBS in both passing yards and touchdowns. This game opened with Purdue as a 2-point favorite (however, keep in mind this is before QB change was announced) and now sits with the Falcons as a 1.5-point favorite on the road. Make no mistake…this is seriously good offensive football team in Bowling Green! They sit at 1-2 on the season, but opened the season by scoring 30 points and gaining 557 yards against a pretty good Tennessee squad, and then followed that up with 48 and 41 points respectively in a win at Maryland and close loss this past weekend vs. Memphis. Purdue has been pretty weak defensively so far this season and this appears to be a very bad matchup for them. Bowling Green is an impressive 14-3 against the number in their last 17 road games vs. teams with a losing record and Purdue has been dead money for bettors, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. We think Purdue could score some points (depending on how effective Blough is) but we know BG is going to score some points and we don’t think the Boilers can keep up. We’re siding with the short-priced road favorite in this one.
Marc Lawrence
California vs. Washington
Play: Washington +3
Edges - Huskies: 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS conference home dog versus undefeated opponent. Bears: 3-16-1 ATS last twenty games as a road favorite; and 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS away off an away game. With the Huskies 7-2 SUATS of late in this series, we recommend a 1* play on Washington.
ASA
California vs. Washington
Play: Washington +3
Washington is catching Cal in a great spot here. The Bears are on their second straight road trip after traveling to Texas to take on the Longhorns last week. Cal held on for the emotional 45-44 win as Texas missed an XP at the buzzer which would have sent the game to OT. The fact is Cal got the win despite being outplayed as Texas put up more yardage and a higher yards per play number. Washington is a very well coached and improving team. They whipped a solid Utah State team last week outgaining USU by nearly 200 yards. The Huskies are now playing their 3rd straight home game and will be well rested vs a tired, travel weary California team. The Bears are a terrible 3-16-1 ATS as a road favorite and we’ll fade them here call for Washington to win outright.