Art Aronson
San Francisco vs. Oakland
Play: Over 8½
The visitors hand the ball to 40 year old Tim Hudson (8-8, 4.20 ERA) who departed his last start with a 4-1 lead because of a hip injury. Hudson is retiring after the season ends but will get one last start throwing opposite his old buddy Barry Zito; note that Hudson owns a pedestrian 4.70 ERA on the road this year. Zito (0-0, 18.00 ERA) will make his first start since 2013, but is only expected to get up to 50 pitches in this one. While this is a great story, it would seem to be more of a circus side show than a real baseball game, so with each starter expected to only see a few innings, there's no question that the OVER does indeed become worthy of a second look in this one.
Ken Thomson
Texas +3.5
I like the way this kid Heard runs the offense. Second straight start against OSU team that has played weak schedule while Horns have gone up against tough comp. Texas needs to get the lead instead of always playing from behind. Gray should have some success running the ball as well.
Andy Iskoe
Bowling Green -3.5
The early money came in heavy on Bowling Green in this game, pushing the Falcons as high as 5 point road chalk before some buy back, and for good reason. The 1-2 Falcons have played a tough schedule, losing a road-neutral game to Tennessee (SEC), winning outright at Maryland (ACC) and at home to very much underrated Memphis (AAC). Purdue is also 1-2, losing late at Marshall (C-USA) and at home last week to Virginia Tech (ACC), sandwiched around a home win over Indiana State (FCS). Having played the much tougher competition Bowling Green has one of the nation's most potent passing attacks (456 ypg). Purdue has the better defensive stats but they were accumulated against lesser offenses than they will face here. Purdue plays in the tougher Big 10 but BG has been a solid MAC program with 3 straight Bowl trips and return virtually their entire offense from 2014. In what should be one of the week's highest scoring games,
Heath Mac
UL-Monroe vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -37½
The Crimson Tide looked lost in the first half of last week's game, but only a couple of key moments that went against them stopped them from running over the top of Ole Miss. We think coach Saban will have the CT focussed and ready for this game, regardless of level of the competition. ULM managed two TDs against Georgia in that blow out but we think they'll be doing well to repeat that effort in this game. Also working in our favor of a blow out Bama win here is the fact that the ULM game is practically non existent, so we'll see plenty of stop start football. This one will be blow out city.
Brandon Lee
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas
Play: Texas A&M -6½
There's no question this line has been inflated some with Arkansas' back-to-back losses against Toledo and Texas Tech, but I still think there's some value here with the Aggies laying less than a touchdown. I think the Razorbacks situation is worse off than people think. Keep in mind that Toledo should have lost at home last week to Iowa State, Cyclones missed a 32-yard field goal at the end of regulation before losing in overtime. Texas Tech only beat Sam Houston State by 14 and were actually outgained 637 to 611. Their only win came against UTEP, whose only win on the season is a 50-47 victory against a New Mexico State team that is now 5-34 over the last 3+ seasons. Texas A&M is a legit threat in the SEC West and are greatly improved defensively under new coordinator John Chavis. The Razorbacks have lost their two biggest playermakers in RB Jonathan Williams and WR Keon Hatcher and are not as strong defensively as last year. As good as the defense was a year ago, they gave up 523 yards to A&M. Arkansas doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Aggies and aren't a team that's built to play from behind.
Jim Feist
Mariners at Angels
Pick: Under
LA has a weak offense, 25th in baseball in runs scored, on a 7-3-2 run under the total against the AL West. At least they have Andrew Heaney (3.30 ERA, 6-3) going, with good stuff. He's allowed 2 runs his last 11 innings and shut out this Seattle team earlier in the year. The Under is 5-0 in the Angels last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Seattle has a weak offense, too, 22nd in runs scored, but has ace Felix Hernandez going. He is 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA against the Angels this season. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Mariners last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. And when these teams meet in this stadium the UNDER is 4-0.
Big Al
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Pick: Over
If you want to see how dramatic the difference is between Coors Field and Dodger Stadium, just look at the head-to-head meetings between these two teams recently. In four games played here in Denver in a series back in early June, a total of 54 runs were scored. But in the last four games played at Chavez Ravine, a total of just 17 runs went across the plate. Sure, pitching match-ups may have had something with it but not enough to account for that much of a discrepancy. Having said that, this pitching match-up features the one guy on the Rox who's been hit the hardest this season as RHP Kyle Kendrick takes the mound for the 26th time this season. There simply aren't many superlatives to describe how bad Kendrick has been in most of his starts, and although his 6.37 ERA is awful, he's almost two runs better on the road than he is here (7.35 ERA vs. 5.55). One of those games that resulted in those 54 runs in four games was started by Kendrick on June 1, and the Dodgers came away with an easy 11-4 win in that one. The over is 16-7 in the last 23 meetings.
Tony Acosta
Auburn -2.5
I like Auburn minus a field goal in this game. Auburn is in a solid revenge spot as last season the Bulldogs handed them a double digit loss. Miss State is weaker this season especially on the defensive side of the ball. Mississippi State's secondary gave up over 300 passing yards vs Southern Mississippi earlier this season. Auburn brings a much more talented squad to the field then Southern Mississippi. I also see this as a trap game. Both the Bulldogs and Tigers have faced LSU with the Bulldogs dropping a close 21-19 while the Tigers were blown out 45-21. I expect the betting public to jump on the points. Auburn's head coach Malzahn is 7-1 ATS coaching with revenge.
Harry Bondi
AUBURN (-2.5) over Mississippi State
We always like to "buy" a team when its value is at its lowest if there is potential for a turnaround, and that's certainly the case with Auburn. While some are calling it a panic move, we love the fact that Guz Malzahn has gone to redshirt freshman QB Sean White and benched Jeremy Johnson, who threw six interceptions in three games this season. White is a big upgrade for the Tigers, who are 7-0 ATS when playing with conference revenge, and 5-1 ATS when laying 7 points or less at home against an SEC foe. Auburn is also 15-1 straight up on this field the last three years, so any time we can get it at less than a three-point favorite, we're all for it. Auburn gets the season-saving win over an overrated Mississippi State team.
Dr. Bob
Georgia Tech (-7½) 30 DUKE 24
Duke has been better than expected so far, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and the Blue Devils actually outplayed Northwestern in last week’s 10-19 loss. Duke outgained Northwestern 330 yards at 4.5 yards per play to 273 yards at 3.7 yards per play but were done in by a -2 fumble differential, which is just random bad luck. On the season Duke has been just average offensively, averaging 6.1 yards per play but doing so against teams that would allow 6.1 yards per play to an average offense, but the Blue Devils’ defense has been great in allowing only 3.8 yards per play, which is good even after adjusting for facing 3 bad offensive teams. Georgia Tech is much better defensively this season and my math projects a modest 5.3 yards per play for the Blue Devils in this game.
Georgia Tech’s offense is very good, as has been the norm in coach Paul Johnson’s option attack, but the Yellow Jackets were slowed down by a very good Notre Dame defense last week, being limited to just 4.8 yards per play and 22 points, and Duke is capable of slowing them down too. In fact, the Blue Devils defended that option attack reasonably well last season in a 31-25 win at Georgia Tech and they have a better defense this season. My math projects 5.8 yppl for the Yellow Jackets.
Overall the math actually calls for this to be a very close game but Georgia Tech applies to an 88-35 against the spread revenge situation that I don’t want to go against. I’ll call for Georgia Tech to win but I wouldn’t be surprised if Duke pulls off the upset. However, that revenge angle favoring Georgia Tech will keep me from betting on this game.
MICHIGAN (-6½) 26 Byu 19
BYU continues to impress even without star QB Taysom Hill, who was injured in week 1 against Nebraska. Backup Tanner Mangum has been just as good throwing the ball (a bit better, actually) but the Cougars miss Hill’s elite running ability. BYU is 0.6 yard per play better than average offensively with Mangum at quarterback (excluding the Hail Mary pass that beat Nebraska, which I consider luck and not predictive) and the Cougars are 0.3 yppl better than average defensively and nearly won at UCLA last week. Michigan stumbled out of the gate with a turnover induced loss at Utah (yards per play were even in that game) and have used their defense to dominate Oregon State and UNLV the last couple of weeks. Overall, I rate the Wolverines at 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively but they’ve been 1.2 yppl better than average defensively, allowing just 4.2 yppl to Utah, Oregon State and UNLV, who would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team (adjusted for going up against UNLV’s backup quarterback for much of last week’s game). Overall these teams are pretty even and my math only favors Michigan by 3 ½ points. However, the Wolverines apply to a very strong 105-29-3 ATS situation that is based on their strong defense, which makes up for the negative line value. I’ll pass.
LSU (-24) 34 SYRACUSE 10
Syracuse is down to their 3rd string quarterback, which is a big issue against an aggressive LSU defense that’s limited Mississippi State and Auburn to just 4.9 yards per pass play. Zack Mahoney gets the call to start for the Orange and there isn’t much to go on, as he’s had just 4 pass plays (for only 19 yards) and one run for 12 yards. Austin Wilson could also see time and Wilson has averaged only 4.4 yards on his 62 career pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average QB). Either way, it’s a huge downgrade from Eric Dungey, who averaged 10.3 yppp through 2 ½ games before getting hurt (he took over early in game 1 when returning starter Terrel Hunt was injured). Syracuse could have some success running the ball, as the Orange are a good running team and LSU’s defensive weakness, relatively, is defending the run. But, the math projects a 24 point win for the Tigers after making adjustments to the Syracuse offensive ratings.
MICHIGAN STATE (-26½) 36 Central Michigan 15
Michigan State is overrated in the polls, as they are clearly not the #2 team in the nation based on their stats. The Spartans have only averaged 5.9 yards per play on offense while allowing 5.8 yppl and that’s not good enough to suggest that they can dominate a decent Central Michigan team. The Chippewas are certainly worse than average but they’re not bad at 0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively. This game projects to be closer than expected and I would have considered playing Central Michigan as a Best Bet at +28 or more.
Oklahoma State (-3) 36 TEXAS 28
Texas has a new starting quarterback and Jerrod Heard looked like the second coming of Vince Young last week against Cal. Heard torched the Cal secondary for 351 yards on 34 pass plays and added 176 yards on 21 runs. That was after racking up 99 yards on 9 runs and 117 yards on 8 pass plays off the bench the prior week against Rice. Heard was highly regarded coming out of high school and now everyone know why. I don’t see any reason why Heard won’t continue to make big plays with his legs but his passing numbers will come down since he’s not going to continue to average 19.8 yards per completion. Still, I do rate the Texas pass attack and their entire offense significantly higher and I expect the Longhorns to move the ball at a pretty good rate against a better than average Oklahoma State defense. While Heard appears to have solved the Longhorns’ problems on offense he hasn’t fixed the Texas defense, which was gutted for 556 yards at 7.3 yards per play by the Bears last week and has allowed an average of 515 yards at 6.3 yppl in their 3 games. Texas has faced two elite offensive teams in Notre Dame and Cal and a decent one in Rice but those are still troublesome numbers for what was thought to be a good defense. Oklahoma State is averaging 511 yards at 7.5 yppl (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average team), so Texas may have another tough time on the stop side of the ball. Before the season started nobody would have thought the offense would be the strength of the Longhorns but it appears to be the case right now. I considered making Oklahoma State a Best Bet here, as my ratings favor them by 4 points and a 67-11 ATS statistical match up indicator applies to the Cowboys. I also lean over (60 points).
NOTRE DAME (-29) 49 Massachusetts 17
Massachusetts has a pretty good pass attack but not much else and the Irish should win easy if they’re focused. My math favors Notre Dame by 35 points if they play their normal game but the Irish apply to a negative 13-44-2 ATS big favorite letdown situation that is based on last week’s win over Georgia Tech and a big game at Clemson awaits next week. I’ll still lean with Notre Dame despite the negative situation.
ALABAMA (-38) 46 UL Monroe 10
My math favors Alabama by 39 ½ points but the Tide may come out flat after last week’s emotional gut punch by Ole’ Miss. Alabama applies to a negative 20-56-1 ATS big favorite situation and the Tide are only 1-9 ATS the week after a loss under coach Nick Saban.
Texas A&M (-7) 33 Arkansas 27
Arkansas has suffered upset losses in consecutive weeks versus Toledo (as a 21 ½ point favorite) and Texas Tech but I actually lean with the Razorbacks in the underdog role. Arkansas wasn’t horrible in those two losses, as the offense averaged 470 yards at 6.3 yards per play while the defense gave up 383 yards per game at 6.6 yppl. My issue with Arkansas is that they’ve lost 3 of their top 4 wide receivers to injury with Jared Cornelius (broken arm) joining top wide out Keon Hatcher and Cody Hollister on the injury list. I bet on Texas A&M as a huge long shot to win the national championship and I’m happy that they’ve started 3-0 with a pivotal win over Arizona State to start the season. However, the Aggies aren’t actually as good as I expected them to be. I was correct in calling for the defense to go from bad to better than average (0.5 yards per play better than average so far) but the offense isn’t as good as their 46 points per game suggests. Texas A&M has averaged 6.3 yards per play but they’ve done so against 3 defensive units that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack. My math model favors A&M by only 4 ½ points but I get 6 points after adjusting for receiver injury issues for Arkansas. On a side note, I love Texas Tech’s Kliff Kingsbury putting Arkansas coach Bret Bielema in his place after beating the Razorbacks last week. Look up the video if you haven’t seen it. I’m sure Kingsbury will be rooting for another spread attack to “kick his ass” this week. I’m not sure that’s going to happen but I’d like it to.
MISSISSIPPI (-25½) 41 Vanderbilt 10
The question here is if Mississippi will suffer a letdown after their big upset win at Alabama last Saturday night. My database suggests not. Teams that beat Alabama are 4-3 ATS the next week since the Tide became a power in 2008 and teams that win as a road underdog actually are pretty good bets as big home favorites in their next game. In fact, teams with a .500 or better record that are coming off a straight up road upset win are 137-91-2 ATS as a conference home favorite of more than 7 points against losing teams. The percentage is even higher for favorites of more than 21 points (64.4% at 38-21-1 ATS) so there is no evidence that Ole’ Miss will suffer a letdown here and my rating favor the Rebels by 28 points. Coach Hugh Freeze also has a history of beating up on bad teams, as his teams are now 14-3-1 ATS when favored by more than 14 points, including wins of 76-3 and 73-21 this season.
UCLA (-2½) 35 ARIZONA 28
My math model really liked UCLA here based on the numbers for each team so far this season and I’d get the Bruins by 4 ½ points even if I threw out the horrible numbers from Arizona’s opener against UTSA (the Cats were outgained 396 yards to 534 yards). However, UCLA’s best defensive player, Myles Jack is out for the season along with starting CB Fabian Moreau. Arizona, meanwhile, gets back perhaps the best defensive player in the nation (at least he was last year) in LB Scooby Wright, who has been upgraded to probable to make his return after missing nearly all of the first 3 games. Arizona’s defense has performed at a decent level the last two weeks despite not having Wright but I still think UCLA will be able to move the ball even if Wright is back to 100%, which is uncertain. Bruins’ frosh quarterback Josh Rosen has an incredible debut against Virginia but he has been horrible the last two weeks. I don’t know what to make of that and I’ll just assume he’ll play at his average level, which is a bit better than average (6.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average QB). Arizona has struggled in pass defense, allowing 6.6 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.4 yppp against an average team but having Wright back should help put more pressure on the quarterback and make it easier for the Wildcats’ questionable defensive backs. Regardless of how Rosen plays the Bruins can rely on star back Paul Perkins, who is having another great season so far (429 yards at 7.4 ypr). I upgraded Arizona’s defensive rating to the rating I had for them coming into the season with Wright healthy but I still project UCLA to average 6.0 yards per play in this game.
The battle in this game will be between Arizona’s offense and UCLA’s defense. The Wildcats aren’t as good as their numbers suggest on offense, as the 6.9 yards per play they’ve averaged has come against teams that would allow 6.5 yppl to an average team and UCLA’s defense is still likely to be very good without Jack. Last year’s starting CB Ishmael Adams has conveniently had his suspension lifted this week to help make up for the loss of Moreau and while replacing Jack is not easy there are plenty of star performers on a Bruins’ defense that has yielded only 14 points and 4.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense (adjusted for facing UNLV’s backup quarterback for most of that game). Jack is a great player but his numbers haven’t been particularly impressive this season (5 tackles per game, zero tackles for loss and 2 passes defended) but I did adjust the equivalent of nearly 2 points for his absence and the math projects 5.3 yppl for Arizona after making that adjustment.
The numbers aren’t as strongly in favor of UCLA with Jack’s absence and Wright’s return to the field but UCLA is still the side to be on and the line has dropped below 3 points.
WISCONSIN (-24½) 32 Hawaii 12
Wisconsin has not been very impressive offensively so far this season, averaging a modest 5.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack. That’s just not good enough to lay such a big number against a Hawaii team with a good run defense. The Warriors have yielded only 4.4 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average team, and that includes limiting Ohio State to only 4.6 yprp. Hawaii actually has good numbers defending the pass too (5.1 yppp allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppp) so I question if Wisconsin can score enough points to cover a big number. Hawaii is offensively challenged and the Badgers have a strong defense that has dominated weaker foes the last two weeks (3.3 yppl and 3 points total allowed to Miami-Ohio and Troy) so it’s also possible that Wisconsin may only need 27 to 30 points to cover. I’ll lean with Hawaii but I think the Under is a better play.
OREGON (-10½) 41 Utah 27
Both of these teams have been worse than expected due to questionable defensive units. Oregon isn’t as good offensively as they were with Marcus Mariota at quarterback but the Ducks are still potent with Vernon Adams running the show (he’s back this week after taking last week off to nurse an injury). The issue is a defense that’s allowed 33.8 points on 458 yards per game at 6.0 yards per play, which includes allowing 42 points on 549 at 6.4 yppl to Eastern Washington and 28 points on 431 yards at 5.7 yppl to Georgia State. It’s not a case of those opponents racking up big yards against backups. It’s a case of the starters not being very good. Utah is a below average offensive team, especially with quarterback Travis Wilson out, but the Utes are still good enough to post a good number of points on the scoreboard. Utah’s defense has been solid against the run but the Utes have struggled against opposing aerial attacks, allowing 6.5 yards per pass play to a trio of mediocre to bad quarterbacks. Adams should be able to pick apart the Utah secondary and I expect the Ducks to score a healthy number of points. Overall the math leans a bit with Utah but Oregon applies to a 119-46 ATS situation that will have me leaning towards the Ducks.
USC (-5½) 38 ARIZONA STATE 27
USC may have lost to Stanford last week but Stanford is a very good team and the Trojans did manage to rack up 7.3 yards per play against a very sturdy Cardinal defense in that 31-41 loss (allowed 6.7 yppl). USC’s offense is averaging 48 points on 558 yards at 8.6 yppl and if they can score 31 on Stanford then the Trojans can score close to 40 on an ASU defense that’s good but not great. The Aztecs have allowed only 4.5 yppl but they’ve faced 3 teams that would combine to average just 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team and that’s not nearly good enough to compete with USC’s attack, which has been 2.2 yppl better than average. ASU’s issue is an offense that has averaged only 5.7 yppl despite facing teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack. The Aztecs managed only 287 yards at 3.5 yppl against Texas A&M, the only better than average defense that they’ve faced. USC’s defense wasn’t actually that bad last week on a compensated yards per play basis and the Trojans rate at 0.5 yppl better than average for the season defensively, so ASU is at a disadvantage when they have the ball. I project a lot of points because both teams play at a crisp pace offensively and I like the Trojans to come away with a comfortable victory despite a 76-156-6 ATS 1st road game situation that applies to USC. In fact, if it weren’t for that angle I’d be on USC as a Best Bet here.
Dr. Bob
Navy (-7½) 29 CONNECTICUT 22
My math model only favors navy by 3½ points in this game but the Midshipmen apply to a 132-59-2 ATS situation that will keep me off this game.
SOUTH CAROLINA (-15) 31 Central Florida 11
My highest rated season win bet on UCF under 7 wins is looking pretty good with the Knights sitting at 0-3 with two losses as double-digit favorites, the last of which was last week as a 24 ½ point home favorite against FCS team Furman. The Knights are horrific on offense and it’s even worse now with starting quarterback Justin Holman out. Holman’s numbers were down this year because of a major downgrade in talent at the receiver position but at least he completed 64% of his passes and made the most of the receiver talent on hand. Holman’s backups, however, have completed just 45% of their passes while averaging only 3.4 yards per pass play. South Carolina has a horrendous pass defense, as the Gamecocks have allowed 75.3% completions and 8.2 yards per pass play (although against quarterbacks that would average 7.1 yppp against an average team). It’s the not so classic case of a stoppable force against a moveable object. The math projects South Carolina to be the winner of that pathetic battle and projects only 267 total yards at 4.0 yards per play for the Knights.
South Carolina is turning to Lorenzo Nunez to start at quarterback this week after an injury to Connor Mitch and ineffectiveness by backup Perry Orth. Nunez is untested as a passer with 4 very short completions on 5 attempts for just 18 yards but he’s an excellent runner that has 116 yards on 12 runs over the last 2 weeks off the bench. South Carolina would be better off with more of a passing quarterback against a UCF defense that is very good against the run (3.7 yprp allowed) but horrible defending the pass (8.2 yppp allowed) but the Gamecocks are still projected to move the ball pretty well and are likely to cover.
Dr. Bob
Indiana (-3½) 32 WAKE FOREST 23
Wake Forest has to turn to backup quarterback Kendall Hinton in place of injured starter John Wolford. Wolford was off to a very good start this season and Hinton is not close to Wolford in terms of throwing the ball. However, Hinton does ad a running element (111 yards on 15 runs last week) that makes up some of that difference but overall the Demon Deacons are well below average offensively with Hinton at quarterback and they really struggled without Wolford against a bad Army defense last week (just 17 points). Indiana has been horrible defensively because the Hoosiers have given up too many big pass plays (389 pass yards allowed per game at 9.2 yards per pass play). Wake Forest won’t pass as much with Hinton at quarterback, which is good news for an Indiana defense that is better than average defending the run. Indiana should be able to limit Wake Forest’s offense and the math projects only 5.0 yards per play for the Demon Deacons in this game.
NC State (-17) 31 SOUTH ALABAMA 18
NC State has covered the spread in all 3 of their games so far with easy wins by an average of 29 points against bad teams Troy, Eastern Kentucky and Old Dominion. South Alabama is a below average team too but the Jaguars are the best teams that the Wolfpack have faced so far and they just won as a 17 ½ point underdog at San Diego State last week. South Alabama has a decent quarterback in Cody Clements, who put up good numbers under the same offensive coordinator last year at UAB, and the Jags have a good running back in Xavier Johnson, who’s averaged 6.4 yards on his 114 career carries. NC State has a very good run defense, which they proved last week in shutting down Old Dominion’s good running back Lawry, but the Wolfpack have actually been below average in pass defense when you account for the low level of opposing quarterbacks they’ve faced. The only decent quarterback they went up against was Brandon Silvers of Troy State and the Pack gave up 8.1 yards per pass play in that game.
NC State’s offense has been below average on a yards per play basis, averaging just 5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average attack, but the Wolfpack have done a great job of moving the chains with decent running and accurate short passes by Jacoby Brissett, who’s completed 78% of his passes. The offense should move the ball about the same this week since South Alabama’s defense is just as bad as the other 3 teams that NC State has faced this season, but my ratings only favor the Wolfpack by 13 points in this game.
South Alabama should be fired up to host a big 5 conference school and NC State better not be looking ahead to next week’s conference opener against Louisville. I’m not going to pull the trigger on this game but I’d lean with South Alabama plus the points.
Dr. Bob
RUTGERS (-14½) 40 Kansas 30
Rutgers’ defense was bad last year and was expected to be bad again. It’s even worse now with the defensive backfield decimated by dismissals. The Scarlet Knights have allowed 515 yarsd at 7.3 yards per play to their two FBS opponents Washington State and Penn State, who are both below average offensively (would combine for just 5.0 yppl against an average team). Kansas is 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively but the Jayhawks have a pretty significant advantage against Rutgers’ defense. Kansas is terrible defensively too, as the Jayhawks have allowed 560 yards per game at 7.5 yppl in their two games to South Dakota State and Memphis, who would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense. Rutgers is 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively and without top wide receiver Leonte Carroo but the Knights should put up good numbers in this game. My math favors Kansas to cover in a high scoring game.
NEBRASKA (-21) 43 Southern Miss 24
Nebraska was impressive in rallying to force overtime at Miami after falling behind by 23 points but the end result was another devastating loss (they lost their opener to BYU on a Hail Mary pass as time expired). The Huskers rallied after losing to BYU with a 48-9 win over South Alabama but they might have trouble distancing themselves from a Southern Miss team with a good offense. The Eagles have averaged 502 yards at 6.8 yards per play against a trio of teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average offense and Nebraska’s mediocre defense (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppl against an average team) doesn’t figure to shut them down. Nebraska should score a lot of points against a porous Southern Miss defense that’s been 0.9 yppl worse than average but overall the math favors the Cornhuskers by just 19 points.
Indiana (-3½) 32 WAKE FOREST 23
Wake Forest has to turn to backup quarterback Kendall Hinton in place of injured starter John Wolford. Wolford was off to a very good start this season and Hinton is not close to Wolford in terms of throwing the ball. However, Hinton does ad a running element (111 yards on 15 runs last week) that makes up some of that difference but overall the Demon Deacons are well below average offensively with Hinton at quarterback and they really struggled without Wolford against a bad Army defense last week (just 17 points). Indiana has been horrible defensively because the Hoosiers have given up too many big pass plays (389 pass yards allowed per game at 9.2 yards per pass play). Wake Forest won’t pass as much with Hinton at quarterback, which is good news for an Indiana defense that is better than average defending the run. Indiana should be able to limit Wake Forest’s offense and the math projects only 5.0 yards per play for the Demon Deacons in this game.
Indiana is very good offensively, as the Hoosiers have averaged 41 points on 566 yards per game at 7.0 yards per play while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. Wake Forest is just slightly better than average defensively, allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average stop unit, so the Hoosiers should be able to move the ball at a decent clip and win this game comfortably.
WEST VIRGINIA (-16½) 38 Maryland 26
I was surprised when Perry Hills was picked over Caleb Rowe as the starting quarterback for Maryland but the coaching staff finally wised up and Rowe averaged 9.0 yards per pass play in his first start last week against South Florida. Rowe did throw 3 interceptions and that has been a problem throughout his 4 years (15 picks on just 266 career pass attempts). Still, I think Maryland is still better off with Rowe behind center and my math model favors the Mountaineers by only 12 ½ points in this game. I’ll lean with the Terrapins and over.
PENN STATE (-15 ½) 28 San Diego State 8
San Diego State has been one of the nation’s biggest disappointments so far, as the Aztecs were expected to be among the best teams in the Mountain West conference but have instead been horrible on both sides of the ball. San Diego State has averaged only 4.8 yards per play despite facing teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average team and the Aztecs’ usually solid defense has been 0.8 yppl worse than average so far this season (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl to an average team). It’s one thing to give up 8.0 yards per play to Cal’s prolific attack but last week the Aztecs allowed South Alabama to rack up 514 yards at 6.2 yppl in an upset loss last week. I keep expecting San Diego State’s to start playing up to expectations and I don’t expect a sub-par Penn State attack to do too much damage but the Nittany Lions’ nasty defense (14.7 points and 4.3 yppl allowed) should make it tough for the Aztecs’ horrendous offense to reach double-digits. My math favors Penn State by 17 ½ points and San Diego State applies to a 64-137-4 ATS negative momentum situation. I don’t generally like to lay a lot of points with offensively challenged teams but the Nittany Lions look like the right side in this game.
Dr. Bob
Oklahoma State (-3) 36 TEXAS 28
Texas has a new starting quarterback and Jerrod Heard looked like the second coming of Vince Young last week against Cal. Heard torched the Cal secondary for 351 yards on 34 pass plays and added 176 yards on 21 runs. That was after racking up 99 yards on 9 runs and 117 yards on 8 pass plays off the bench the prior week against Rice. Heard was highly regarded coming out of high school and now everyone know why. I don’t see any reason why Heard won’t continue to make big plays with his legs but his passing numbers will come down since he’s not going to continue to average 19.8 yards per completion. Still, I do rate the Texas pass attack and their entire offense significantly higher and I expect the Longhorns to move the ball at a pretty good rate against a better than average Oklahoma State defense. While Heard appears to have solved the Longhorns’ problems on offense he hasn’t fixed the Texas defense, which was gutted for 556 yards at 7.3 yards per play by the Bears last week and has allowed an average of 515 yards at 6.3 yppl in their 3 games. Texas has faced two elite offensive teams in Notre Dame and Cal and a decent one in Rice but those are still troublesome numbers for what was thought to be a good defense. Oklahoma State is averaging 511 yards at 7.5 yppl (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average team), so Texas may have another tough time on the stop side of the ball. Before the season started nobody would have thought the offense would be the strength of the Longhorns but it appears to be the case right now. I considered making Oklahoma State a Best Bet here, as my ratings favor them by 4 points and a 67-11 ATS statistical match up indicator applies to the Cowboys. I also lean over (60 points).
Dr. Bob
WESTERN KENTUCKY (-20½) 47 Miami-Ohio 27
Western Kentucky games have averaged over 1000 total yards per game and I expect slightly more than many total yards in this game. That is not reflected in the total, which may be lower than it should be because Western Kentucky’s games haven’t been as high scoring as the stats in those games would predict (just 59.3 total points per game). Yardage is more indicative of future results than points are and my math model likes the over (67) in this game.
orado State (-10) 31 UTSA 26
My ratings favor Colorado State by only 8 ½ points and the Rams apply to a negative 76-156-6 ATS first road game situation.